[WPM] Wheaton Precious Metals: Q3 2026 Earnings Test for the Antamina Silver Stream

Wheaton Precious Metals is a precious metals streaming company: it pays a mine operator cash up front in exchange for the right to buy a contracted share of the mine's future gold, silver and other metals at a fixed low price, and then sells that metal at market prices[1]. The company will release results for the Third quarter 2026 (three months ended September 30, 2026) after market close on November 5, 2026, and will hold its earnings call at 11:00 a.m. ET on 2026-11-06[2]. In the latest reported period, the second quarter of 2026, Wheaton posted record revenue of $929 million, net earnings of $543 million and operating cash flow of $650 million; attributable gold equivalent ounce (GEO) production was about 202,200 ounces, and cash costs of $568 per GEO left a cash operating margin of $3,875 per GEO, up 65% from a year earlier[3]. Wheaton gives only annual production guidance and kept its 2026 range at 860,000 to 940,000 GEOs[4]. As of November 2, Drillr's compiled third-quarter consensus was EPS of $0.897 (8 analysts, range $0.840 to $0.965) and revenue of $800.2 million (4 analysts, with almost identical high and low values); the earnings-calendar row on the same day showed $0.939 per share and revenue of $805.8 million, and both revenue figures sit below the $929 million Wheaton actually reported for the second quarter[5].

Three things matter most in this report. First, whether the Antamina silver stream delivers higher production and sales in its first full shipment quarter after Wheaton doubled its share: second-quarter attributable silver production was 2,319 thousand ounces and sales were 2,063 thousand ounces, covering only two of the usual three quarterly shipments, while silver grades were held down by copper-only ore[6][7]. Second, whether the two cornerstone mines, Salobo and Peñasquito, deliver the second-half weighting management described: first-half output was 414,755 GEOs, only 48% of the low end of full-year guidance, and in the second quarter Salobo gold fell 11% and Peñasquito silver fell 14% year over year[8][9]. Third, how quickly the roughly $2 billion borrowed for Antamina comes down: at June 30 Wheaton held $100 million of cash against $1.969 billion of bank debt, and second-quarter finance costs had risen to $31.1 million from $1.4 million a year earlier[10].

Company Background and Business Structure

Wheaton does not run mines; it uses upfront payments to lock in metal from mines that others operate. According to its 2025 annual report, Wheaton held 42 long-term agreements with 34 mining companies in 18 countries, including 34 precious metal purchase agreements (PMPAs), covering 23 operating mines and 23 projects at various stages of development; under these agreements Wheaton pays an upfront amount and then a contractually fixed cash payment for each ounce delivered, generally at or below the market price[1]. By the end of the second quarter of 2026 the portfolio had grown to 22 operating mines, 20 development projects and 15 exploration and other-stage projects, for 57 assets in total[3].

Revenue comes mainly from gold and silver and is concentrated in a few large mines. Of second-quarter revenue of $929 million, gold made up 46%, silver 52%, cobalt about 2% and palladium 0.3%[3]; by asset, Salobo gold contributed $312 million, Peñasquito silver $199 million and Antamina silver $151 million, or about 33.6%, 21.4% and 16.2% of total revenue, roughly 71% combined[6]. Salobo is in Brazil and operated by Vale, with Wheaton entitled to 75% of payable gold; Peñasquito is in Mexico and operated by Newmont, with Wheaton entitled to 25% of payable silver at $4.62 per ounce[11].

Antamina is the asset whose structure changed most in 2026. On February 16, 2026, Wheaton agreed to buy BHP's 33.75% portion of Antamina silver and paid $4.3 billion in cash at closing on April 1; together with its existing Glencore silver stream, Wheaton has received 67.5% of all Antamina silver production since April 1, paying 20% of the spot price per ounce[11]. The BHP portion steps down to 22.5% of silver production after 100 million ounces have been delivered[11].

Financial History and Current Position

Three years of annual results show Wheaton's revenue and profit amplifying gold and silver prices. According to the 2025 annual report, revenue rose from $1.016 billion in 2023 and $1.285 billion in 2024 to $2.315 billion in 2025; net earnings were $538 million, $529 million and $1.472 billion; operating cash flow was $751 million, $1.028 billion and $1.905 billion[12]. Revenue grew 80% in 2025, driven mainly by a 46% rise in realized prices and a 23% increase in GEOs sold; Wheaton sold about 651,300 GEOs, earned gross margin of $1.7 billion, or 72% of revenue, and realized $3,494 per ounce of gold and $42.26 per ounce of silver for the year[12].

The first half of 2026 kept the high-price profitability, but the Antamina deal fundamentally changed the balance sheet. First-quarter revenue was $901 million, net earnings $582 million and operating cash flow $766 million; second-quarter revenue was $929 million, net earnings $543 million and operating cash flow $650 million[13]. Second-quarter operating cash flow was already reduced by $109 million of income taxes paid, mainly the 2024 global minimum tax paid on June 24[10][14]. First-half revenue totaled $1.831 billion, net earnings $1.125 billion and operating cash flow $1.415 billion[10]. At the end of 2025 Wheaton held $1.154 billion of cash and no bank debt; by June 30, 2026, cash had fallen to $100 million, bank debt stood at $1.969 billion, and net debt on the company's measure was about $1.9 billion[10][14].

The third-quarter year-over-year comparison is much easier, because gold and silver prices in the third quarter of 2025 were far below current levels. In that quarter Wheaton reported revenue of $476 million, 161,845 GEOs sold and operating cash flow of $383 million, with realized prices of $3,481 for gold and $39.66 for silver; net earnings of $367 million included an $85.7 million gain on disposal of a PMPA, and adjusted net earnings were $281 million[13][8]. In the second quarter of 2026 realized prices reached $4,452 for gold and $73.41 for silver, though both were below the first quarter's $4,849 and $84.52[13].

Operating Model

Wheaton's revenue equals the metal sold under each agreement multiplied by the realized price, and the metal sold depends on mine production, the contracted attributable share and delivery timing. Attributable shares are fixed by contract, such as 75% of Salobo gold, 25% of Peñasquito silver and 67.5% of Antamina silver[11]; Wheaton does not hedge, so prices follow spot. Metal moves through a produced-but-not-yet-delivered (PBND) pipeline, which stood at about 157,600 GEOs at June 30, or 2.6 months of payable production, within the company's normal range of 2.5 to 3.5 months[15]. As a result, a change in mine output usually takes one to two quarters to show up fully in sales and revenue.

Profitability depends on how far per-ounce cash payments are decoupled from metal prices. Agreements with fixed per-ounce payments generated 83% of 2025 revenue, and those costs do not rise with prices; from 2023 to 2025, cash costs per GEO rose only 13%, from $453 to $514, while the cash operating margin per GEO expanded 94%, from $1,566 to $3,040[12]. Antamina and most newer silver streams pay a percentage of the spot price, so their costs rise with prices; Antamina's second-quarter cash cost was $13.82 per ounce, about 19% of the $72.99 realized price[6]. In the second quarter, cost of sales consisted of $119 million of cash payments and $123 million of depletion, leaving gross margin of $688 million; general and administrative, share-based compensation and donations together came to about $20.8 million, finance costs were $31.1 million and income tax expense was $102 million[10].

Cash conversion is high, but taxes and upfront payments create large timing swings. Profits in Wheaton's Cayman Islands subsidiaries are subject to a 15% global minimum tax, which accounted for $90 million of second-quarter tax expense; the tax is paid 15 months after year-end, and about $243 million for 2025 is due on or around March 31, 2027[14]. Investing cash flow is mostly stream prepayments, which were $4.474 billion in the second quarter; financing cash flow is dividends and borrowing, with $2.7 billion drawn, $728 million repaid and $171 million of dividends paid in the second quarter[10]. The 2026 quarterly dividend is $0.195 per share, and the amount declared in the second quarter was about $88.6 million[13].

Industry and Competitive Position

Wheaton's competition happens when it bids for new agreements, not when it sells metal. In its annual report, Wheaton says it competes with other companies for PMPAs and similar transactions, and that well-funded competitors could make it harder to secure deals at acceptable returns[1]. Its advantage lies in its cost structure: fixed payments account for most revenue, so higher prices flow almost entirely into profit, and in 2025 growth in cash operating margin per GEO outpaced the rise in GEO prices[12].

Wheaton's growth depends mainly on projects under existing agreements coming into production, not on new deals. The company projects that production will rise about 50% to 1,200,000 GEOs by 2030 and average that level from 2031 to 2035, with the increase coming from operating assets such as Antamina and Blackwater and from projects in construction or ramp-up, including Koné, Fenix, Kurmuk, Platreef, Mineral Park and El Domo[16][4]. The disclosures cited here cover only Wheaton's own data and offer no peer unit costs or production growth rates for side-by-side comparison, so any claim of industry leadership can be read only against Wheaton's own cost and margin history.

Core Debates

Wheaton paid $4.3 billion to double its Antamina silver share to 67.5%. Can the first quarter with a full shipment schedule deliver the higher production and sales volumes?

This debate sets the payback pace on Wheaton's largest investment. The BHP Antamina agreement required a single $4.3 billion payment on April 1, which moved Wheaton from a year-end net cash position to about $1.9 billion of net debt[11][14]. In the second quarter Antamina already contributed $151 million of revenue and $122 million of segment operating cash flow, about 16.2% of total revenue; because Wheaton pays 20% of spot per ounce, it keeps roughly 80% of the price on every ounce it sells[6][11].

The evidence so far shows that doubling the share did not double production. Attributable Antamina silver production was 2,319 thousand ounces in the second quarter, up 56% from a year earlier, but silver grades fell because more copper-only ore was processed, and a maintenance shutdown planned for July was brought forward into June[9]. Sales of 2,063 thousand ounces reflected only two of the usual three quarterly shipments under the new agreement and were about 11% below production[8][7]. On the earnings call, management said more copper-zinc ore, which carries more silver, is expected to be processed in the third quarter, lifting silver grades[7]. Quarterly reports do not disclose the operator's grades or ore types, so whether grades recover in the third quarter can be judged only from the production result.

The financial transmission is direct. Processing more copper-zinc ore raises silver grades and lifts the 67.5% attributable silver production; a full three-shipment quarter brings sales close to production, and Antamina revenue equals sales volume times the realized silver price; with payments at 20% of spot, segment cash flow is about 80% of revenue, flowing into operating cash flow and toward repaying the acquisition debt. For reference, in the third quarter of 2025, at a 33.75% share, attributable production was 1,672 thousand ounces and sales were 1,552 thousand ounces, at a realized silver price of just $39.66[8][13].

The third quarter should answer three questions: whether attributable Antamina silver production exceeds 2,319 thousand ounces, whether the roughly 11% gap between sales and production narrows, and how much of any change in segment revenue and operating cash flow comes from volume versus silver prices. If production does not rise, grade improvement has been delayed and the extra BHP share is diluted; if silver prices fall sharply, the Antamina segment, which carried about $4.71 billion of total assets at June 30, could face an impairment test[6].

First-half output covered only 48% of the low end of Wheaton's full-year guidance. Can Salobo and Peñasquito deliver the promised second-half weighting in the third quarter?

This debate determines whether full-year production guidance holds. Salobo and Peñasquito together contributed $511 million of second-quarter revenue, more than half the total, and both carry fixed per-ounce payments, so almost every additional ounce turns into gross margin[6]. Wheaton says only about 3% of forecast 2026 production comes from assets in construction or ramp-up, which leaves the full-year outcome mainly dependent on mine sequencing at the existing large mines[4].

The evidence leaves room for both readings. Second-quarter production was 202,229 GEOs, up 6% year over year, with the increase coming mainly from the BHP Antamina agreement; Salobo produced 62,116 ounces of gold, down 11% on lower grades, and Peñasquito produced 1,807 thousand ounces of silver, down 14% on lower grades and recoveries from planned mine sequencing[8][9]. On the call, management attributed the expected stronger second half to mine sequencing at Salobo and Peñasquito, the first full contribution from the new Antamina agreement and the ramp-up of newly operating assets[7]. On the other hand, Wheaton's annual report had already said Salobo grades would be modestly lower and production slightly down in 2026, so Salobo's year-over-year decline may not be entirely temporary[16].

Reaching the 860,000 GEO low end of guidance requires about 445,245 GEOs in the second half, or about 222,623 GEOs per quarter on average, above the second quarter's 202,229 GEOs; on the company's 2026 price-conversion basis, third-quarter 2025 production was 203,331 GEOs[8][4]. The transmission runs from higher-grade zones at the two mines to higher attributable gold and silver production and therefore higher GEO output; with PBND held at 2.5 to 3.5 months, GEOs sold follow production, and the added revenue flows almost entirely into gross margin. On the call, the CFO said PBND is more likely to stay flat or rise slightly toward year-end than to draw down[7].

The third quarter should answer four questions: whether GEO production reaches 222,623 ounces, whether Salobo gold returns above the 66,997 ounces of the third quarter of 2025, whether Peñasquito silver returns above that quarter's 2,087 thousand ounces, and whether PBND stays within 2.5 to 3.5 months[8][15]. A third-quarter shortfall would concentrate the pressure on full-year guidance in the fourth quarter; a large PBND build would leave revenue below what production implies.

Wheaton borrowed close to $2 billion to fund Antamina. How quickly can third-quarter operating cash flow bring net debt down?

This debate determines how quickly Wheaton regains acquisition capacity and how much profit interest consumes. Wheaton ended 2025 with $1.154 billion of cash and no bank debt, and after the acquisition carried about $1.9 billion of net debt for the first time; second-quarter finance costs rose to $31.1 million from $1.4 million a year earlier[10]. The funding came from a new two-year $1.5 billion term loan and a draw on the previously undrawn revolving credit facility, which was enlarged by $500 million to $2.5 billion in the second quarter and extended to June 30, 2031[15][14].

The evidence shows deleveraging has started. The CFO said on the call that pro forma net debt was about $2.1 billion immediately after the April 1 payment and had fallen to about $1.9 billion by June 30[7]; over that period Wheaton also paid $109 million of 2024 global minimum tax and two dividends totaling $171 million[14][10]. The CEO said Wheaton is generating more than $200 million of free cash flow every month and remains willing to pursue new transactions[7]. The alternative is that lower metal prices or a large new acquisition could slow the decline in net debt, and about $243 million of 2025 global minimum tax falls due around March 2027[14].

The financial transmission is a straight line. Operating cash flow equals metal prices times GEOs sold, less cash costs and current taxes; after the dividend of about $88.6 million a quarter and stream prepayments, the remaining cash repays the term loan and revolver; lower net debt reduces finance costs and ultimately feeds net earnings[13]. Using bank debt of $1.9693 billion less cash of $100.2 million, net debt was about $1.869 billion at June 30; second-quarter operating cash flow was $649.5 million, against $383.0 million in the third quarter of 2025[10][13]. After the quarter ended, Wheaton made a further $43.875 million upfront payment for El Domo[15].

The third quarter should answer four questions: whether net debt at September 30 is below $1.869 billion, whether operating cash flow exceeds the second quarter's $649.5 million, whether finance costs fall below $31.1 million, and whether Wheaton announces a new stream above $500 million. A large new acquisition would reset the deleveraging path, and a rising share of agreements that pay a percentage of spot would compress cash margin per GEO.

Risks and Falsifiers

Development delays are the main risk to the 2030 growth target. Only about 3% of 2026 production comes from assets in construction or ramp-up, but the 2030 target of 1,200,000 GEOs is about 50% above the midpoint of 2026 guidance, and the increase relies largely on projects such as Platreef, Fenix, Kurmuk, Koné, Mineral Park and the Marmato expansion, for which Wheaton has paid or committed upfront deposits[4][16]. According to the operators, Platreef and Fenix expect commercial production in the fourth quarter of 2026, Koné expects first gold from its oxide circuit late in the fourth quarter of 2026, and El Domo aims for first commissioning by July 2027[17]. If these projects hit those milestones on time, the current reading of the growth path holds; if several slip, the 2030 target moves out.

Delayed silver-grade improvement at Antamina would directly weaken the return on Wheaton's largest investment. The exposure sits in the Antamina segment, which generated $150.5 million of revenue and $122.0 million of operating cash flow in the second quarter and carried about $4.71 billion of total assets at June 30[6]. If the mine keeps processing mostly copper-only ore, the production gain from the 67.5% share will fall short of what the acquisition assumed[9]. The falsifier is attributable Antamina silver production above 2,319 thousand ounces in both the third and fourth quarters.

Weaker-than-expected grades at the cornerstone mines could push full-year production below the 860,000 GEO low end of guidance. Salobo and Peñasquito together generated $510.9 million of second-quarter revenue; at Peñasquito's second-quarter realized silver price of $72.99 and cash cost of $4.62 per ounce, every 100,000 fewer ounces of silver means about $6.8 million less cash gross margin[6]. The falsifier is third-quarter production of at least 222,623 GEOs with full-year guidance maintained.

Lower metal prices or a large new acquisition could keep net debt above $1.5 billion for an extended period. Second-quarter finance costs of $31.1 million equaled about 4.8% of the $645 million of earnings before income taxes[10], and about $243 million of 2025 global minimum tax is still due around March 2027[14]. The falsifier is net debt falling in both the third and fourth quarters, with finance costs falling alongside it.

What to Watch Next

• Antamina's first full quarter: attributable silver production above 2,319 thousand ounces with sales close to production would confirm the grade recovery and full shipment schedule; flat production would mean the grade improvement has been delayed.
• Second-half weighting: third-quarter output of at least 222,623 GEOs, Salobo gold above 66,997 ounces, Peñasquito silver above 2,087 thousand ounces and PBND within 2.5 to 3.5 months would support full-year guidance; a shortfall would push the pressure into the fourth quarter.
• Deleveraging pace: net debt below about $1.869 billion at September 30, operating cash flow above $649.5 million and finance costs below $31.1 million would confirm the path; a new stream above $500 million would reset it.
• Growth projects: commercial production at Platreef and Fenix and first gold at Koné on schedule would support the 1,200,000 GEO path for 2030; several delays would push the target out.

Conclusion

Wheaton's profits are driven by two variables: the metal its contracts lock in and the price at which it sells that metal. Fixed per-ounce payments generated 83% of 2025 revenue, which let cash operating margin per GEO expand 94% between 2023 and 2025[12]; in the second quarter of 2026 the model delivered $929 million of revenue and $650 million of operating cash flow, but the $4.3 billion Antamina prepayment also moved Wheaton from net cash to about $1.9 billion of net debt[3]. The key unresolved relationship is whether Antamina and the two cornerstone mines deliver the second-half production weighting in the third quarter, turning high metal prices into cash flow fast enough to bring debt down.

Independent outside commentary after the results has been thin. After the August 6 results, Drillr's news and broker research searches turned up no independent assessment; the only one found was a Substack commentary published by Silver & Gold Alpha on August 7[18]. The unnamed author argued that the Antamina deal should not simply be called accretive: at the silver price at the time, the new stream could generate roughly $300 million of annual cash margin, which is substantial but implies a long simple payback against the $4.3 billion prepayment, and the tension between an exceptional business, powerful silver leverage and expensive upfront capital is where the real investment debate lies[18]. That view bears directly on the first and third core debates, but it is a single outside interpretation with no opposing view to set against it, so it should not be read as market consensus.

The combination that would most strengthen the current understanding is third-quarter Antamina silver production above 2,319 thousand ounces with sales close to production, GEO output of about 222,623 ounces, operating cash flow that brings net debt below $1.869 billion after dividends and prepayments, and finance costs starting to fall. Conversely, if Antamina grades still have not improved, Salobo and Peñasquito keep declining year over year, or Wheaton announces another large agreement before debt has come down meaningfully, the concern about a long payback would carry more weight and full-year guidance pressure would concentrate in the fourth quarter.

Sources

[1] WPM FY2025 40-F filed 2026-03-31 · 2026-03-31 · 40-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526134908/d56281dex992.htm

[2] WPM 6-K filed 2026-10-07 — Q3 2026 results date · 2026-10-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000127956926000958/ex991.htm

[3] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — news release highlights · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex991.htm

[4] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — outlook and global minimum tax · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex991.htm

[5] Drillr analyst estimates WPM Q3 2026 retrieved 2026-11-02 · 2026-11-02 · Drillr analyst estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[6] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — Q2 results by asset · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex991.htm

[7] WPM Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-07 · 2026-08-07 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — units produced and sold · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex991.htm

[9] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — operating asset highlights · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex991.htm

[10] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — balance sheet and cash flow statements · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex991.htm

[11] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — MD&A Antamina PMPA terms · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex992.htm

[12] WPM FY2025 40-F filed 2026-03-31 — MD&A highlights and margin · 2026-03-31 · 40-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526134908/d56281dex992.htm

[13] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — quarterly financial review · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex992.htm

[14] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — MD&A tax and liquidity · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex992.htm

[15] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — PBND, funding and commitments · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex991.htm

[16] WPM FY2025 40-F filed 2026-03-31 — MD&A 2026 outlook · 2026-03-31 · 40-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526134908/d56281dex992.htm

[17] WPM Q2 2026 6-K filed 2026-08-07 — MD&A development asset updates · 2026-08-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1323404/000119312526338641/d15525dex992.htm

[18] Silver & Gold Alpha on WPM Antamina economics 2026-08-07 · 2026-08-07 · Silver & Gold Alpha · https://silvergoldalpha.substack.com/p/wheaton-precious-metals-just-added