[PEG] PSEG: Q3 2026 Earnings Test Nuclear Capacity Gains and Utility Growth

PSEG (Public Service Enterprise Group, NYSE: PEG) is an energy company based in Newark, New Jersey[1]. Its utility, PSE&G, delivers electricity and gas to about 2.4 million electric and 1.9 million gas customers[2], while PSEG Power owns 3,758 MW of nuclear capacity[3]. PSEG is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-11-02, covering the third quarter 2026, the three months ended September 30, 2026[4]. In the latest disclosed period, the second quarter of 2026, GAAP net income was $334 million ($0.67 per share) and non-GAAP operating earnings were $425 million ($0.86 per share, up from $0.77 a year earlier)[1]; first-half non-GAAP operating earnings were $1.203 billion versus $1.102 billion a year earlier[5]. With the second-quarter results, management maintained 2026 non-GAAP operating EPS guidance of $4.28 to $4.40[1], reaffirmed a 6% to 8% compound annual growth outlook for non-GAAP operating earnings through 2030[6], and set 2026 regulated capital spending at about $4.2 billion[7]. Against first-half EPS of $2.41[1], the full-year guidance implies $1.87 to $1.99 for the second half, compared with $1.85 in the second half of 2025, which is full-year 2025 EPS of $4.05 minus $2.20 for the first half[7].

Three things matter most in these results. The first is whether nuclear profit keeps pace with capacity prices: PSEG's average PJM capacity price rises from $270 per MW-day in the 2025/2026 delivery year to $329 in 2026/2027[8], second-quarter non-GAAP operating earnings at Power & Other already rose from $52 million to $83 million[5], and the third quarter is the first clean comparison with no zero emission certificate (ZEC) revenue in either period. The second is whether PSE&G can still grow in a quarter with no new base rates: its second-quarter net income rose only 3.0% to $342 million[5], as most of a $40 million gain in delivery revenue was absorbed by higher O&M, depreciation, interest and income taxes[9], and last year's third quarter already carried the full effect of new rates that took effect in October 2024[10]. The third is whether funding without new equity is eroding earnings: consolidated interest expense was $269 million in the second quarter[11] and first-half operating cash flow was $1.821 billion[12], so third-quarter interest and nine-month cash flow will show whether the $24 billion to $28 billion five-year investment plan[6] can be funded without new shares while earnings keep growing.

Company Background and Business Structure

PSEG earns most of its profit from its regulated grid business, and nuclear generation is its second and only unregulated profit source. Of 2025 GAAP net income of $2.111 billion, PSE&G contributed $1.745 billion, or about 83%, and PSEG Power & Other contributed $366 million[13]; of first-half 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings of $1.203 billion, PSE&G accounted for $919 million, or about 76%[5]. Both businesses are consolidated, and intersegment transactions such as PSEG Power's gas sales to PSE&G are eliminated, amounting to $117 million in the second quarter[11].

PSE&G's revenue falls into three groups, and only delivery revenue earns a profit. Transmission rates follow a FERC formula that resets each year on forecast costs and capital spending and is later trued up, with a 9.90% base ROE plus a 50 basis point adder for membership in PJM as a regional transmission organization (RTO), and transmission revenue does not depend on sales volumes[14]. Distribution rates are set by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU); the October 2024 rate case settlement set a $17.8 billion rate base, a 9.6% ROE and a 55% equity ratio, while gas main, energy efficiency and other investments are recovered through clause mechanisms[10]. Default electric supply (BGS) and default gas supply (BGSS) are procured by PSE&G for customers and passed through at cost, and clause revenue is offset by equal costs, so neither earns a margin[9].

PSE&G's customers are mainly commercial and residential, and its distribution profit barely moves with usage. In 2025 it sold 40,561 GWh of electricity, with commercial customers at 57%, residential at 34% and industrial at 9%, and residential customers took 58% of gas sales[2]. The Conservation Incentive Program (CIP), in place since 2021, trues up distribution margin to a per-customer baseline, so more than 90% of distribution margin varies only with the number of customers[2], which leaves weather and usage with little effect on PSE&G's profit.

PSEG Power owns stakes in three nuclear stations and supplies default-service gas to PSE&G. At the end of 2025 it held 100% of Hope Creek in New Jersey (1,174 MW), 57% of Salem Units 1 and 2 (1,309 MW) and 50% of Peach Bottom Units 2 and 3 in Pennsylvania (1,275 MW), with Peach Bottom operated by Constellation[15]. The units run as base load and earn revenue mainly from energy, capacity and ancillary services sold into PJM, and energy can be hedged in advance through exchanges or bilateral contracts; PSEG Power also supplies gas to PSE&G under a full-requirements BGSS contract extended to March 31, 2027[3].

Financial History and Current Position

PSEG's annual earnings rose clearly in 2025, while operating cash flow has swung widely from year to year. GAAP net income was $2.111 billion ($4.22 per share) in 2025, up from $1.772 billion ($3.54 per share) in 2024[13]; non-GAAP operating EPS rose from $3.68 in 2024 to $4.05 in 2025[7]. Operating cash flow was $3.806 billion, $2.133 billion and $3.298 billion in 2023 through 2025, while additions to property, plant and equipment were $3.325 billion, $3.380 billion and $3.272 billion[16]. Regulated rate base grew from about $34 billion at the end of 2024 to about $36 billion at the end of 2025[17].

Capital spending and dividends have run above operating cash flow, and debt fills the gap. In 2025 PSEG paid $1.258 billion of common dividends, issued $3.6 billion of long-term debt and redeemed $2.15 billion, for net financing inflow of $12 million[16]. The company paid $0.67 per share in the second quarter of 2026, up from $0.63 a year earlier[18], and it raised the 2026 indicative annual dividend by $0.16 per share, its 15th consecutive annual increase[7].

In the first half of 2026 GAAP earnings fell while non-GAAP operating earnings rose, and the gap sits in PSEG Power & Other. First-half GAAP net income was $1.075 billion ($2.15 per share), down from $1.174 billion a year earlier[1]; non-GAAP operating earnings were $1.203 billion, up from $1.102 billion[5]. In the second quarter Power & Other posted a GAAP net loss of $8 million, and adding back $91 million of reconciling items produced non-GAAP operating earnings of $83 million[11]; consolidated revenue was $2.554 billion versus $2.805 billion a year earlier[11], mainly because mark-to-market results on hedges swung from gains to losses and cut generation revenue by $450 million[19].

The balance sheet kept growing in the first half, while liquidity and credit ratings stayed stable. Total debt was $24.541 billion at June 30, up from $24.074 billion at the end of 2025, made up of $950 million of commercial paper and loans and $23.591 billion of long-term debt, and stockholders' equity was $17.329 billion[12]. Available liquidity was about $3.4 billion, including $192 million of cash, and variable-rate debt was about 3% of total debt[20]. PSEG's senior unsecured debt is rated Baa2 by Moody's and BBB by S&P, PSE&G's senior secured debt is rated A1 and A, all with stable outlooks, and consolidated debt to capitalization was 59%[21].

Operating Model

PSE&G's revenue grows through staged rate adjustments after investments go into service, with a clear lag. Delivery revenue combines formula transmission rates, distribution base rates and clause investment recovery; in the second quarter it rose $40 million, with $17 million from delivery volumes, $13 million from GPRC clauses and $10 million from higher transmission rate base[9]. Clause investments are only recovered once in service: the BPU-approved GSMP II extension added $23 million of annual revenue from April 1, 2026[22], the $1.05 billion GSMP III program recovers costs through three periodic adjustments as work goes into service, and another $360 million is left for recovery in the next base rate case[23].

PSE&G's net income depends on whether delivery revenue growth outruns depreciation, interest and income taxes. Its profit is roughly delivery revenue minus O&M, depreciation, interest and taxes; in the second quarter PSE&G recorded $286 million of depreciation and amortization, $174 million of interest and $51 million of income tax, for net income of $342 million[11]. The company plans $4.185 billion of PSE&G investment in 2026, including $835 million for transmission, $1.410 billion for electric distribution, $1.130 billion for gas distribution and $810 million for clean energy[24], and it targets 6.0% to 7.5% compound annual growth in regulated rate base from 2025 to 2030[25]. Higher investment lifts depreciation and interest first, while revenue catches up only after assets enter service and rates adjust, so profit growth tends to slow between rate cases.

PSEG Power's profit is set by capacity prices, hedged power prices and output together. Its revenue is roughly generation times the hedged power price, plus cleared capacity times the PJM capacity price and the number of days, plus gas supply revenue, adjusted for mark-to-market hedge results; in the second quarter capacity revenue rose $51 million, higher realized prices and volumes added $37 million, and the end of ZECs removed $25 million[19]. Nuclear fuel cost $6.93 per MWh, or $54 million for the quarter[8]. The federal nuclear production tax credit (PTC) is worth up to $15 per MWh and adjusts with a plant's gross receipts, and PSEG recorded no PTC in 2025 because receipts were above the threshold[26]; the company says its 2026 hedge book should leave realized nuclear value above the PTC threshold[27], and it has hedged more than 95% of expected 2026 output[7], so this year's power price moves have limited effect on profit, while capacity price changes arrive one delivery year at a time.

PSEG's cash model relies on operating cash flow plus debt to cover capital spending and dividends. Planned 2026 capital spending totals $4.640 billion, including $4.185 billion at PSE&G and $435 million at PSEG Power & Other[24], and with dividends on the scale of 2025's $1.258 billion[16], funding needs clearly exceed operating cash flow. In the first half of 2026 operating cash flow was $1.821 billion, investing outflow was $1.451 billion and financing outflow was $310 million[12]. PSEG Power's hedges require extra cash collateral when prices rise, and net cash collateral postings stood at $414 million at June 30[20], a swing that flows straight into operating cash flow.

Industry and Competitive Position

PSE&G's competitive position in New Jersey comes from its regulated network rather than from what it charges for energy. When customers take default electric or gas supply, PSE&G buys it on their behalf but earns no margin on it[9]; the company says its residential gas bills are the lowest in New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic region, and it has filed to cut residential gas bills by 5% from October 2026[22]. Demand is changing: PSE&G reached a summer peak load of 10,446 MW in July 2026, the highest in 14 years[28], the annual report anticipates a significant load increase from electric vehicles, data centers and other large users[2], and FERC is working through rules on how large loads connect to and pay for the grid[29].

Rising PJM capacity prices benefit PSEG's base-load nuclear fleet, but prices are bounded by a collar. Capacity prices from PJM's July 2024 auction were about 10 times those of the 2023 auction, the July 2025 auction went higher and would have cleared higher still without the FERC-approved ceiling, and in April 2026 FERC accepted an extension of the cap to the 2028/29 and 2029/30 delivery years[30]. PSEG's average capacity prices for the 2025/2026 through 2028/2029 delivery years are $270, $329, $333 and $325 per MW-day on about 3,500 to 3,600 MW of cleared capacity[8]; the latest auction cleared at the $325 cap and still left PJM 6.8 GW short of its reliability target[28].

Operating performance is the nuclear fleet's main advantage in the capacity market, and new nuclear legislation adds a long-term option. In 2025 the units generated about 30.9 TWh at a 91.2% capacity factor, and in October 2025 Hope Creek moved from an 18-month to a 24-month refueling cycle[31]; the company also plans to seek 20-year license extensions for Salem and Hope Creek and sees nearly 200 MW of uprate potential at Salem[8]. The newly signed Power in New Jersey Act directs the BPU to procure at least 1,100 MW of new nuclear generation, and PSEG holds an early site permit at its Salem County site, one of only six issued in the U.S., though management stresses that projects need appropriate risk allocation[28]. The disclosures cited here cover PSEG alone and include no peer rate, margin or generating cost data, so they cannot measure its cost position against other PJM generators or utilities.

Core Debates

With New Jersey's zero-emission certificate payments gone since May 2025, PSEG's nuclear earnings now rest on higher PJM capacity prices and pre-hedged power prices. As the capacity price rises from $270 to $329 per MW-day in the third quarter, can the nuclear segment earn clearly more than the $50 million it made a year earlier?

This question matters because nuclear is PSEG's only business outside rate regulation and the main source of upside beyond its long-term growth target. New Jersey's zero emission certificates for Salem 1, Salem 2 and Hope Creek ran through May 2025 and were worth roughly $10 per MWh[26]; in reaffirming the 6% to 8% growth outlook, management listed multi-year nuclear contracts as a potential addition beyond the long-term forecast[6]. The third quarter is the first year-over-year comparison with no ZECs in either period, so it shows more clearly how much of the capacity price increase actually turns into profit.

Current evidence shows nuclear profit growing through the first half, but from uneven sources. Non-GAAP operating earnings at Power & Other were $201 million in the first quarter versus $172 million a year earlier[32], $83 million in the second quarter versus $52 million, and $284 million for the first half versus $224 million[5]. Second-quarter growth came from a $51 million rise in capacity revenue and a $37 million gain from higher realized prices and volumes, partly offset by a $25 million loss from the end of ZECs[19]; output was 7,787 GWh versus 7,511 GWh a year earlier at a 92.0% capacity factor[8], while first-quarter output was 7,989 GWh, below 8,355 GWh a year earlier[33].

The third-quarter capacity price gap is much smaller than the second quarter's, which leaves real uncertainty about the size of the profit gain. April and May of the second quarter still sat in the 2025/2026 delivery year, while the prior-year months fell in a low-price delivery year set by the 2023 auction, and the July 2024 auction cleared at about 10 times the 2023 level[30]; in the third quarter the two periods carry $329 and $270, a gap of only $59 per MW-day[8], which on 3,500 MW over 92 days works out to roughly $19 million of pretax revenue, an estimate from disclosed prices rather than a company figure. The company's prior-year third-quarter base is $50 million of Power & Other non-GAAP operating earnings and 7,903 GWh of output (5,189 GWh in New Jersey and 2,714 GWh in Pennsylvania, at a 92.4% capacity factor). The alternative reading is that much of the first-half gain came from the low prior-year price base, and with fall 2026 refueling outages scheduled at Salem 1 and Peach Bottom 2[8], an earlier outage or an unplanned shutdown could cut output enough to offset higher prices.

The next test is whether output holds up alongside price. The measures to watch are whether Power & Other non-GAAP operating earnings reach at least $65 million, whether third-quarter nuclear output is at least 7,900 GWh, whether the 10-Q shows a year-over-year capacity revenue gain above $15 million, and whether PSEG announces multi-year nuclear contracts or wins projects in PJM's reliability backstop procurement[28]. Power & Other earnings below $50 million would show that higher prices did not become profit, and output below 7,500 GWh would show that unit availability offset the capacity price.

PSEG's New Jersey utility, PSE&G, had its first full quarter of new base rates a year ago, and this third quarter brings no new base-rate increase. Can revenue from gas-main replacement, energy-efficiency and transmission investment keep outrunning higher depreciation, interest and taxes so the utility still grows between rate cases?

This question matters because PSE&G produces most of PSEG's profit, and the long-term growth target rests mainly on rate base expansion. PSE&G accounted for about 83% of PSEG's 2025 GAAP net income[13], and the company targets 6.0% to 7.5% compound annual growth in regulated rate base from 2025 to 2030[17]. If profit stalls between rate cases, growth will bunch up in the years after new rates take effect and will depend more on New Jersey's rate policy.

Current evidence shows PSE&G's earnings growth slowing. PSE&G net income was $577 million in the first quarter, up 5.7%[32], $342 million in the second quarter, up 3.0%, and $919 million for the first half, up 4.7%[5]. Second-quarter delivery revenue rose $40 million, but O&M rose $41 million (including $28 million of clause and renewable pass-through spending), depreciation $11 million, interest $13 million and income taxes $18 million, with the tax increase partly reflecting a smaller flowback of historic mixed service cost deductions[9]; the company also cited a prior-year transmission true-up as a drag[5].

The third-quarter comparison base is high, and costs are rising ahead of revenue. Last year's third quarter fully reflected new distribution rates effective October 15, 2024[10], and the company reported at the time that delivery revenue rose $251 million year over year and income taxes fell $32 million on higher tax flowback, with PSE&G net income of $515 million. PSE&G's depreciation and interest totaled $439 million in that quarter ($277 million and $162 million), and the two items reached $460 million in the second quarter of 2026 ($286 million and $174 million)[11], up $24 million year over year[9]; PSE&G invested about $1 billion in the second quarter[22], spending that lifts depreciation and interest first and is recovered through clause adjustments over time. The alternative reading is that the slowdown from 5.7% to 3.0% is simply the normal pace without new rates, and that part of the faster first-quarter growth reflected winter gas seasonality[32], which does not represent the full-year rhythm.

The next test is whether revenue growth covers costs, and when the next rate case arrives. The measures to watch are whether PSE&G net income reaches at least $535 million, whether delivery revenue rises at least $40 million year over year, whether the combined increase in depreciation and interest stays within $30 million, and whether the company confirms a base rate filing by the end of 2026[22]. The last rate case required a new filing by 2029 at the latest, and management said accumulated distribution rate base now leads it to plan a filing by the end of 2026[28]. PSE&G net income below $515 million would show that investment recovery failed to outrun cost growth, and a delayed or deferred rate case would push recovery of accumulated investment further out.

PSEG plans to invest $24 billion to $28 billion over five years without issuing new equity or selling assets, relying on operating cash flow and debt. Will third-quarter interest growth and year-to-date operating cash flow show that this funding plan is not eating into earnings growth?

This question matters because avoiding new shares prevents EPS dilution, at the cost of steadily rising interest expense. Management said the balance sheet can fund the $24 billion to $28 billion five-year investment program without new equity or asset sales while supporting consistent dividend growth[6]; according to the company's six-month consolidated statements, first-half consolidated interest expense was $541 million, up about 10.6%, faster than the roughly 9.2% growth in non-GAAP operating earnings. Interest and cash flow determine whether the company can keep raising its dividend while holding PSEG's stable Baa2 rating at Moody's and BBB at S&P[21].

Current evidence shows better first-half cash flow, but debt and interest are still climbing. Operating cash flow was $1.821 billion in the first half of 2026, versus $1.527 billion a year earlier[12]; the $294 million increase came mainly from higher tax refunds and lower regulatory deferrals at PSE&G, partly offset by $179 million of higher net cash collateral postings at PSEG Power, and PSE&G's own operating cash flow rose from $954 million to $1.166 billion[34]. Total debt rose from $24.074 billion at the end of 2025 to $24.541 billion at June 30[12], and second-quarter consolidated interest expense was $269 million versus $248 million a year earlier, up about 8.5%[11]; PSE&G's higher interest came mainly from incremental debt and the replacement of maturing debt at higher rates[9].

Financing costs press directly on both segments' earnings through interest, while collateral amplifies cash flow swings. Full-year 2025 operating cash flow of $3.298 billion roughly matched the $3.272 billion of property additions, leaving the $1.258 billion of dividends to be funded with new debt[16]. The company's prior-year third-quarter consolidated interest expense was $253 million ($162 million at PSE&G and $92 million at Power & Other); PSEG Power's net cash collateral postings were $414 million at June 30[20], up from $222 million at the end of 2025, and if PSEG Power lost its investment-grade rating it would need to post about $703 million more[35]. The alternative reading is that the first-half cash improvement came mainly from one-time tax refunds, that faster second-half capital spending and collateral swings could lift funding needs again, and that interest growth could keep exceeding earnings growth as low-rate debt matures and is refinanced.

The next test is whether interest growth and nine-month cash flow improve together. The measures to watch are whether third-quarter consolidated interest expense stays at or below $275 million, whether nine-month operating cash flow reaches at least $2.7 billion, how much total debt rises from June 30 to September 30, and whether PSEG Power's net cash collateral postings come down. Interest above $285 million would show financing costs growing faster than earnings, and collateral above $600 million would show hedges tying up more cash.

Risks and Falsifiers

New Jersey legislation on transmission and data centers bears directly on PSE&G's transmission return and large-load investment. A law passed in June 2026 requires owners of New Jersey transmission facilities to belong to an RTO from January 1, 2027, which could cost PSE&G its 50 basis point adder for voluntary RTO membership and, by the company's estimate, reduce annual net income and cash inflows by about $40 million[36], or about $0.08 per share on 499 million diluted shares in the second quarter[1]; management said this effect was already built into the 6% to 8% growth outlook when it was updated earlier in 2026[37]. The Data Center Fair Share Act signed in July requires a separate rate class for large data centers that pays the full cost of grid upgrades, with the detailed rules still to be set by the BPU[38]. This risk would be falsified if FERC keeps PSE&G's RTO adder, or the company confirms in later guidance that the effect is fully absorbed with the growth target unchanged, and if the BPU's data center rate rules do not reduce the grid investment PSE&G can recover.

Changes to PJM capacity market rules would cap the upside in PSEG Power's future capacity revenue. FERC has approved extending the capacity price collar through the 2029/30 delivery year, and PJM is pursuing a reliability backstop procurement that offers new generation up to 15 years of price certainty[30]; at about 3,500 MW and $329 per MW-day for the 2026/2027 delivery year, PSEG Power's annual capacity revenue works out to roughly $420 million[8], an estimate based on disclosed data. New generation entering the market could lower later auction prices, and New Jersey officials and regulators are highly sensitive to capacity prices pushing up bills[39]. This risk would be falsified if the backstop procurement covers only new generation without changing existing capacity auction prices, and PSEG's average price in later delivery years stays near the $325 set for 2028/2029[8].

New Jersey's affordability policy and the next rate case could lower distribution returns or delay recovery. In January 2026 the governor issued executive orders directing the BPU to use state funding to ease 2026 electric rate increases and to study modernizing the traditional distribution utility business model, and the consultant's report was released in July[39]; the Phase 1 report discussed multi-year rate plans, performance-based rates, earnings sharing and decoupling, the BPU is moving into Phase 2, and PSE&G plans to file a new base rate case by the end of 2026[28]. The exposure is the $17.8 billion distribution rate base and 9.6% ROE set in the 2024 settlement[10], along with distribution earnings growth after 2027. This risk would be falsified if PSE&G files its rate case by the end of 2026 as planned and the BPU's Phase 2 framework does not change how existing investment is recovered.

Rising financing costs and hedge collateral could squeeze both earnings and cash flow. The capital plan relies mainly on debt, and maturing debt is being refinanced at higher rates[9]; PSEG Power's hedges require extra cash collateral when prices rise, and losing its investment-grade rating would require about $703 million of additional collateral[35]. The exposure is consolidated interest expense and operating cash flow, which was $1.821 billion in the first half of 2026[12]. This risk would be falsified if third-quarter interest expense stays at or below $275 million and net collateral postings fall below the $414 million level of June 30[20].

What to Watch Next

• Nuclear profit and capacity prices: whether Power & Other non-GAAP operating earnings reach at least $65 million against $50 million a year earlier and $83 million in the second quarter; whether nuclear output reaches at least 7,900 GWh against 7,903 GWh a year earlier; and whether the 10-Q shows a capacity revenue gain above $15 million or the company announces multi-year contracts. Earnings below $50 million or output below 7,500 GWh would weaken the price story.
• PSE&G growth between rate cases: whether net income reaches at least $535 million against $515 million a year earlier; whether delivery revenue rises at least $40 million while depreciation plus interest, $460 million in the second quarter, rises no more than $30 million; and whether a base rate case is filed by the end of 2026. Net income below $515 million, or a delayed filing, would weaken the growth case.
• Funding without new equity: whether third-quarter interest expense stays at or below $275 million against $253 million a year earlier and $269 million in the second quarter; whether nine-month operating cash flow reaches at least $2.7 billion and how much debt rises from $24.541 billion; and whether net cash collateral falls from $414 million. Interest above $285 million or collateral above $600 million would weaken the funding plan.

Conclusion

PSEG's earnings have two drivers: PSE&G earns regulated returns from rate base growth and staged rate adjustments, and PSEG Power earns market-based profit from 3,758 MW of nuclear capacity through PJM capacity prices and hedged power prices. First-half 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings were $1.203 billion, up about 9.2%, with PSE&G up 4.7% and Power & Other up about 27%[5]; yet total debt reached $24.541 billion at June 30[12] and second-quarter interest expense rose about 8.5%[11]. The central open question is whether revenue gains from higher capacity prices and grid investment can keep outrunning rising depreciation, interest and taxes in a stretch with no new rates and no new shares.

Since the second-quarter results on 2026-08-04, the available coverage of PSEG has consisted mainly of call transcripts, restatements of the results and brokers' shifting views on the stock, and none of it offered a named author, independent reasoning and a verifiable date. No outside views are therefore cited here, and scattered recaps of the results are not treated as a shared market judgment; for now, the three core debates can only be tested against the company's own disclosures.

The current understanding would be strengthened if third-quarter Power & Other earnings come in clearly above last year's $50 million with output holding at 7,900 GWh, PSE&G net income reaches at least $535 million despite the high base, interest expense stays within $275 million and nine-month operating cash flow reaches $2.7 billion. It would be materially weakened if nuclear profit growth stalls as the capacity price gap narrows, PSE&G net income falls below $515 million, or interest and collateral keep growing faster than earnings, especially alongside a delayed rate case, loss of the RTO adder and a BPU framework that changes how investment is recovered.

Sources

[1] PEG Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · results and maintained guidance · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex99.htm

[2] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · customer mix and CIP decoupling · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[3] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · nuclear generation business and BGSS gas supply · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[4] PEG earnings calendar updated 2026-10-31 · 2026-10-31 · Drillr earnings calendar

[5] PEG Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · results by segment · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex99.htm

[6] PEG Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · funding without new equity · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex99.htm

[7] PEG Q2 2026 earnings slides 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · 2026 outlook drivers · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex991.htm

[8] PEG Q2 2026 earnings slides 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · nuclear measures and PJM capacity prices · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex991.htm

[9] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · PSE&G 2Q26 variance · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm

[10] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · 2024 distribution rate case settlement · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[11] PEG Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · 2Q26 consolidating statement · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex99.htm

[12] PEG Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · capitalization and cash flows · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex99.htm

[13] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · 2025 net income by segment · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[14] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · transmission formula rate and RTO adder · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[15] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · nuclear ownership table · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[16] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · 2023-2025 consolidated cash flows · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[17] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · rate base and 2026-2030 capital program · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[18] PEG Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · retail sales and nuclear generation · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex99.htm

[19] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · PSEG Power & Other 2Q26 variance · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm

[20] PEG Q2 2026 earnings slides 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · liquidity and collateral postings · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex991.htm

[21] PEG Q2 2026 earnings slides 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · credit ratings and debt · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex991.htm

[22] PEG Q2 2026 earnings slides 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · PSE&G regulatory highlights · 2026-08-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526331660/d101695dex991.htm

[23] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · GSMP III and planned base rate filing · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm

[24] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · 2026-2028 capital expenditure projections · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[25] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · capital program and rate base growth · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm

[26] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · nuclear PTC and expired ZEC · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[27] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · hedging strategy and PTC · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm

[28] PEG Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-04 · rate case and power development · 2026-08-04 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[29] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · large load interconnection proceedings · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[30] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · PJM capacity price cap and backstop procurement · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm

[31] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · 2025 nuclear output and capacity factor · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[32] PEG Q1 2026 8-K filed 2026-05-05 · results by segment · 2026-05-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526205254/d63722dex99.htm

[33] PEG Q1 2026 8-K filed 2026-05-05 · nuclear generation · 2026-05-05 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526205254/d63722dex99.htm

[34] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · six-month operating cash flow · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm

[35] PEG 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · downgrade collateral exposure · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526077446/peg-20251231.htm

[36] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · mandatory RTO membership and ROE adder · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm

[37] PEG Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-04 · 2026-08-04 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[38] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Data Center Fair Share Act · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm

[39] PEG Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · New Jersey affordability orders and EO1 study · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526332943/peg-20260630.htm