FCX Q3 2026 earnings: U.S. copper costs rise, Grasberg gold sales slip to Q4

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 27, 2026, for the quarter ended September 30. Copper prices kept lifting profit and cash, but sales and costs lagged the July guidance [1][2]. Going in, the questions were whether the Grasberg restart would turn into sales, whether mining rates and leaching could hold down U.S. costs, and whether high prices would deliver the cash flow plan. In the quarter, Grasberg mining recovered but sales lagged, U.S. costs rose and U.S. volume guidance was cut, and net debt fell to $1.8 billion [1]. Prices confirmed cash capacity; the outlook for U.S. costs and volumes weakened.

Freeport is one of the largest listed copper producers, mining in the U.S., South America and Indonesia, with gold and molybdenum by-products [3]. Revenue is roughly volume times price, and by-product revenue is credited against copper costs [3].

FCX Q3 2026 U.S. copper costs rose to $3.16 per pound and volume guidance fell

U.S. copper mines unit net cash costs were $3.16 per pound in the third quarter, up from $2.94 in the second quarter and above the full-year estimate of about $2.96 given in July [1][4]. FCX attributed the rise to lower volumes from reduced productivity and higher energy and input costs [1]. The molybdenum price was $32.46 per pound, above the company's $30 assumption, so the higher cost did not come from weaker molybdenum prices [1][4].

U.S. operating rates were 10% higher than a year earlier but 3% to 5% below expectations and second-quarter levels, and management said extreme weather continued into the fourth quarter [1][2]. FCX cut its 2026 U.S. copper sales estimate from 1.36 billion pounds to about 1.3 billion pounds and raised its full-year U.S. unit cost estimate to $3.08 [1][4].

Leaching gains are arriving later than planned. Incremental copper from the leach initiatives was 55 million pounds in the third quarter, up from 47 million in the second quarter. However, FCX previously targeted a 300 million pound annual run rate by the end of 2026 and now targets 300 million pounds in 2027, with new additives not deployed until the first half of 2027 [1][5]. U.S. copper mines operating income was $869 million, double the year-ago level, with the increase coming mainly from copper and molybdenum prices [1][2].

Grasberg mining recovered on plan, but sales were deferred

Mining recovery at Grasberg met plan. Third-quarter mill throughput was about 67% of normal capacity, and the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine averaged 69,500 metric tons of ore per day, compared with 53,000 in the second quarter [1][6]. Idle facility and restoration costs (fixed costs expensed while below capacity) were $244 million, below the estimate of about $300 million, and the full-year estimate of about $1.2 billion was unchanged [1][7][8]. PTFI's smelter restarted in late August, and the target of 80% capacity by mid-2027 was unchanged [1].

The lag came after smelting and refining. Indonesia produced 249 million pounds of copper but sold only 153 million pounds, flat with the second quarter. About 60 thousand ounces of refined gold sales moved to the fourth quarter, leaving gold sales at 98 thousand ounces [1]. The gold deferral reduced by-product credits and was the main reason consolidated unit net cash costs reached $2.07 per pound, above the $2.00 estimate; it also added to inventories [1].

Questions remain. PTFI seeks Indonesian government clarity on refined gold exports, as a 10% export duty in current rules conflicts with its mining license [1]. Material handling upgrades are now expected to be completed by early 2027; the earlier plan had the CG44 chute gallery upgrade finishing by year-end [1][9].

Cash flow fell short of the July plan, but capital allocation room remains

The average realized copper price was $6.54 per pound in the third quarter, $0.54 above the company's $6.00 assumption [1][10]. Consolidated copper sales of 749 million pounds matched the estimate. Operating cash flow was $2.0 billion, net of about $0.4 billion of working capital and other uses, below about $2.4 billion per quarter implied by the July full-year plan of about $8.3 billion [1][11][10]. FCX cut its 2026 copper sales estimate to about 3.0 billion pounds and, assuming $6.50 copper in the fourth quarter, raised its full-year operating cash flow estimate to about $8.5 billion [1][2]. Using the company's price sensitivities, a rough calculation puts the new estimate about $0.6 billion below the July plan excluding price.

Net debt was $1.8 billion at September 30, below the company's $3.0 billion to $4.0 billion target, and FCX repurchased $102 million of stock in the quarter [1]. A decision on the Bagdad expansion is still planned for the fourth quarter, with a capital estimate of about $4.5 billion [1][2].

Conclusion

High copper prices still lift profit and cash, but operating delivery is behind earlier guidance. The Grasberg recovery path is unchanged, but FCX trimmed copper sales by about 2% for 2026 and about 2.5% for 2027, and U.S. growth now depends more on new additives not yet proven in the field and on a Bagdad decision not yet made [2]. U.S. cost assumptions moved higher, and working capital absorbed part of the price gain, though net debt remains low. The company expects fourth-quarter copper sales of 875 million pounds and unit net cash costs of $1.68 per pound [1]. Sale of the deferred gold, the export duty outcome and a recovery in U.S. operating rates will decide whether this view strengthens or weakens further.

Sources

[1] FCX 8-K filed 2026-10-27 Exhibit 99.1 · 2026-10-27 · FCX 8-K Q3 results release · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000045/a3q2026exhibit991.htm [2] FCX 3Q26 earnings call 2026-10-27 · 2026-10-27 · FCX Q3 earnings call transcript (Drillr) [3] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · business overview and copper market view · 2026-02-13 · FCX 2025 Form 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm [4] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · U.S. copper mines 2Q26 operating data and 2026 cost guidance · 2026-07-23 · FCX 8-K Q2 results release · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm [5] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · leach initiative 2Q26 production and year-end 2026 run-rate target · 2026-07-23 · FCX 8-K Q2 results release · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm [6] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · Indonesia 2Q26 ore milled, grades and recoveries · 2026-08-06 · FCX Q2 Form 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm [7] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · 2026 outlook: regional sales, unit costs, idle costs, cash flow and capital expenditures · 2026-08-06 · FCX Q2 Form 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm [8] FCX 8-K filed 2026-10-27 3Q26 conference call slides · 2026-10-27 · FCX Q3 earnings call slides (8-K) · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000045/fcx3q26cc_final.htm [9] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · CG44 chute gallery upgrade and PB1 South preparation · 2026-07-23 · FCX Q2 earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx [10] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2Q26 operating cash flow, capital expenditures and 2026 cash flow guidance · 2026-07-23 · FCX 8-K Q2 results release · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm [11] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2026 sales guidance including third-quarter 2026 and smelter inventory deferral · 2026-07-23 · FCX 8-K Q2 results release · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm