[CI] Cigna: Q3 2026 Earnings Test Whether Pharmacy Benefit Profit Has Bottomed

The Cigna Group (NYSE: CI) is a US health services company built around employer health plans and pharmacy benefits: its Evernorth unit runs the Express Scripts pharmacy benefit manager and specialty pharmacies such as Accredo, while Cigna Healthcare mainly sells self-funded administration and fully insured medical plans to US employers[1]. According to the Drillr earnings calendar, Cigna is scheduled to report Third quarter 2026 (three months ended September 30, 2026) results on 2026-11-05[2]. In the latest disclosed quarter, the second quarter of 2026, total revenue rose 7% to $71.668 billion, adjusted income from operations was $2.054 billion, or $7.78 per share (+8%), Evernorth pre-tax adjusted income fell 2% to $1.663 billion, Cigna Healthcare earned $1.276 billion (+17%), and the medical care ratio (MCR) was 84.5%[3][4]. On July 30 the company raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to at least $30.45, and at its September 30 investor day it reaffirmed that figure along with adjusted revenue of about $280 billion, Evernorth income of at least $6.9 billion, Cigna Healthcare income of at least $4.55 billion and a full-year MCR range of 83.7% to 84.7%[3][5]. On the second-quarter call, management said second-half adjusted EPS would be split roughly evenly between the third and fourth quarters and that the third-quarter MCR would sit slightly above the second-quarter level, in line with historical seasonality; subtracting first-half EPS of $15.58 from the full-year floor of $30.45 leaves at least $14.87 for the second half[6][4]. The Drillr earnings calendar shows third-quarter consensus of $7.545 in adjusted EPS and about $72.77 billion in total revenue; the same source had a second-quarter EPS estimate of $7.609, against the $7.78 Cigna reported[7].

Three things matter most in Cigna's Q3 2026 earnings. The first is whether pharmacy benefit profit has reached its floor: the segment's profit fell 28% in the first quarter and 27% in the second because of concessions made to renew the three largest clients and spending on the transition to the rebate-free Signature model, and a wider decline would make Evernorth's full-year floor of $6.9 billion more dependent on other businesses[8][4][1][6]. The second is whether Specialty and Care Services can keep growing quickly after the peak of biosimilar switching: its profit rose 21% in the first half, exactly offsetting the pharmacy benefit decline, but management has said the second-quarter boost from faster conversion will not repeat at the same magnitude in the second half[4][6]. The third is whether Cigna Healthcare's MCR stays "slightly above the second quarter": the first-quarter ratio of 79.8% benefited partly from lower flu volumes and weather-related care deferrals, the ratio returned to 84.5% in the second quarter, and the third-quarter ratio and claim reserves will show how much of the first-half strength came from a genuinely stable cost trend[9][4][3].

Company Background and Business Structure

Cigna's current business mix is the product of a series of acquisitions and divestitures. The company built its combination of insurance, pharmacy benefits and specialty pharmacy by acquiring Express Scripts; on March 19, 2025, it sold its Medicare Advantage, Medicare stand-alone prescription drug plan, supplemental benefits and CareAllies businesses to Health Care Service Corporation (HCSC) for a final price and 2025 cash proceeds of $4.9 billion; and in the third quarter of 2025 it invested $3.5 billion in preferred stock of Shields Health Solutions[1]. In April 2026, Cigna announced it would exit the Individual and Family Plans (IFP) medical business as of January 1, 2027, and began a strategic review of eviCore[4][9]. Leadership is also changing: Brian Evanko succeeded David Cordani as chief executive officer on July 1, 2026, and Cordani became executive chair of the board[10]; at the September 30 investor day the company introduced its "Lead to One" direction and a $3 billion multi-year series of modernization and productivity initiatives[5]. Cigna had about 67,700 employees at the end of 2025[1].

Evernorth Health Services generates most of the group's revenue, with 2025 adjusted revenue of $234.953 billion and pre-tax adjusted income of $7.221 billion[1]. It has two operating segments. Pharmacy Benefit Services, built on Express Scripts, processes prescription claims for employers, health plans and government programs, manages retail pharmacy networks and formularies, negotiates rebates with drug makers, and runs the Express Scripts Pharmacy home-delivery business and EnGuide Pharmacy for GLP-1 patients; Specialty and Care Services includes the Accredo specialty pharmacy, CuraScript SD's specialty drug distribution to clinics and hospitals, Shields' management of health-system specialty pharmacies, eviCore utilization management and MD Live virtual care[1]. Evernorth has three clients that each drive significant revenue, Centene, Prime Therapeutics and the Department of Defense's TRICARE program, and the company has renewed or extended its contracts with its three largest clients through the end of the decade[1].

Cigna Healthcare, the second reporting segment, had 2025 adjusted revenue of $47.163 billion and pre-tax adjusted income of $4.153 billion[1]. Its customers are mainly US employers: self-funded administrative services only (ASO) clients account for 79% of medical customers and about 32% of segment revenue, pay their own claims and may buy stop-loss insurance, while Cigna earns network access and claims administration fees; fully insured clients account for 21% of customers and about 68% of revenue, and Cigna collects premiums and bears the medical cost risk[1]. The segment also includes an International Health business serving multinational employers' expatriate staff and local markets[3]. The two businesses handle cash differently: the pharmacy business collects from clients and pays pharmacies, so working capital swings with drug prices and settlement timing, while the insurance business collects premiums before paying claims[4].

Financial History and Current Position

Cigna's 2025 annual report shows revenue growing from $195.265 billion to $274.900 billion over three years, with adjusted EPS rising from $25.09 to $29.84[1]. In 2025, total revenue rose 11% to $274.900 billion (2024: $247.121 billion), adjusted income from operations was $8.014 billion, or $29.84 per share (2024: $27.33), and shareholders' net income was $5.957 billion, or $22.18 per share (2024: $12.12)[1]. By segment, Evernorth's adjusted revenue grew 16% and its profit 3%, with Pharmacy Benefit Services earning $3.506 billion (-2%) and Specialty and Care Services $3.715 billion (+8%); Cigna Healthcare's adjusted revenue fell 11% because of the Medicare sale, its profit was $4.153 billion (-2%), and its MCR was 84.4%, up 120 basis points, mainly from medical costs in the IFP business[1]. Capital expenditures were $1.2 billion in 2025, and the company repurchased 11.9 million shares for about $3.6 billion; operating cash flow declined because of the reversing effect of clients onboarded in 2024 and the timing of accounts receivable factoring settlements[1].

In the first half of 2026, group revenue kept growing, but the source of profit shifted from pharmacy benefits toward specialty and insurance. First-quarter total revenue was $68.494 billion (+5%) and adjusted EPS was $7.79 (+16%)[8][11]; second-quarter total revenue was $71.668 billion (+7%), adjusted income from operations was $2.054 billion, or $7.78 per share (+8%), and shareholders' net income was $6.29 per share[3][4]. First-half Evernorth profit was $3.129 billion, flat year over year, with Pharmacy Benefit Services at $1.003 billion (-27%) and Specialty and Care Services at $2.126 billion (+21%); Cigna Healthcare earned $2.790 billion (+17%), and its first-half MCR was 82.2%[4].

Cash flow and the balance sheet remain at their seasonal low point, and the full-year targets depend on second-half collections. First-half operating cash flow was $710 million, up from $34 million a year earlier, but pharmacy and other service costs payable fell by $4.108 billion; over the same period Cigna repurchased $280 million of stock and paid $826 million in dividends[4]. On June 30, the debt-to-capitalization ratio was 42.8%, and cash and short-term investments totaled $6.6 billion[4]. Full-year guidance calls for adjusted revenue of about $280 billion, adjusted EPS of at least $30.45 and operating cash flow of about $9 billion, and at the investor day the company set targets through 2030 of 10% to 14% compound annual growth in adjusted EPS and about $50 billion in cumulative operating cash flow[5][6].

Operating Model

Most of Cigna's revenue reflects gross drug spending rather than the profit the company keeps. Pharmacy Benefit Services revenue moves with claim volume and price per prescription: in the second quarter, Evernorth's adjusted claim volume fell 2% to 537 million, yet the segment's revenue rose 8%, showing that drug prices and mix more than offset the volume decline[4]. Specialty and Care Services revenue moves with specialty prescription volume and with conversion from branded drugs to biosimilars, which lowers revenue; Cigna Healthcare revenue comes from premiums on 3.701 million fully insured members and fees on 14.712 million ASO members, and the 2025 Medicare sale already cut segment revenue by 11%, with the 2027 IFP exit set to reduce fully insured premiums further[4][1].

Profit depends on what Cigna retains from each transaction, so margins differ widely by business. Pharmacy Benefit Services is a high-revenue, low-margin business, with a pre-tax margin of about 2.7% in 2025 and about 1.8% in the second quarter of 2026; its profit comes from the administrative fees, network spreads and rebate share retained on each claim, and renewal concessions and Signature spending are compressing that retained amount[1][4]. Specialty and Care Services earned a margin of about 3.9% in the second quarter, driven by specialty volume, gross profit from biosimilar and generic conversion, and operating efficiency; Cigna Healthcare's profit roughly equals premiums times (1 - MCR) plus fees minus selling and administrative expenses, with a second-quarter segment expense ratio of 19.6% and a pre-tax margin of 10.9%[4]. At the group level, corporate costs (-$410 million in the second quarter), noncontrolling interests and taxes are deducted to reach adjusted income from operations, and GAAP net income also deducts amortization of acquired intangibles ($389 million in the second quarter) and special items[4].

Swings in operating cash flow come mainly from pharmacy working capital rather than from profit itself. Receivables from clients and drug makers and payables to pharmacies each run to tens of billions of dollars, so settlement and factoring timing can move quarterly cash flow sharply; in the first half of 2026, depreciation and amortization was $1.305 billion, but pharmacy and other service costs payable fell $4.108 billion and accounts receivable rose $2.044 billion, and the company also cited an unfavorable cash flow impact from the Inflation Reduction Act[4]. Cigna says full-year operating cash flow of about $9 billion is back-half weighted, as it has been historically, plans about $1.3 billion of capital expenditures in 2026, and is targeting a year-end debt-to-capitalization ratio closer to 40%[6][1]. Dividends from regulated insurance subsidiaries to the parent are restricted and totaled $0.8 billion in the first half[4].

Industry and Competitive Position

Express Scripts is one of the three largest US pharmacy benefit managers, and it faces both the advantages of scale and pressure for rebate transparency. In 2025, Evernorth processed 2.222 billion adjusted prescription claims, up 5%, and Express Scripts passed more than 95% of the formulary rebates it received to integrated clients, with more than two-thirds of clients receiving 100% of rebates[1]. The other two large pharmacy benefit managers belong to CVS Health and UnitedHealth, and no comparable, citable peer data are available here. The Consolidated Appropriations Act passed in February 2026 requires pharmacy benefit managers serving ERISA employer plans to pass 100% of certain rebates and fees to plan sponsors starting in August 2028, and from January 2028 bars Medicare Part D compensation linked to drug list prices[1]; Cigna says its rebate-free Signature model is aligned with this regulation and goes beyond the minimum requirements[6].

Specialty pharmacy is Cigna's largest growth opportunity, while its insurance business competes differently from its peers. Management describes the US specialty pharmacy market as nearly $500 billion, with about 40% from provider-administered drugs, where Evernorth historically had a small footprint; Shields leads in management services for health-system-owned specialty pharmacies and serves more than 80 large health systems across 50 states[6]. At the investor day, Cigna said Specialty and Care Services supports more than one million patients with complex conditions and delivers more than 8 million prescriptions a year[5]. Cigna Healthcare focuses on US employers and, after the Medicare sale, carries almost no government health program risk[1], which sets it apart from large peers that depend on Medicare Advantage, although comparable peer margin data are not available here either.

Core Debates

Renewal concessions and Signature transition spending have cut pharmacy benefit profit by about 30%. Did that trough hold in the third quarter?

This question sets the floor for Evernorth's second-half profit. Pharmacy Benefit Services had 2025 revenue of $132.126 billion, about 48% of group revenue, and profit of $3.506 billion, about half of Evernorth's total[1]. Cigna has renewed its three largest client contracts through the end of the decade at less favorable economics while spending ahead on the rebate-free Signature model; if the profit decline widens in the third quarter, Evernorth's full-year floor of $6.9 billion will lean more heavily on specialty[1][5].

The evidence so far shows a steady rate of decline but not yet a floor. Pharmacy Benefit Services earned $394 million in the first quarter (-28%) and $609 million in the second (-27%), while revenue grew 11% and 8% and claim volume was 527 million and 537 million, down 2% in each quarter[11][4]. The 10-Q attributes -11 percentage points of the second-quarter change in Evernorth profit to client- and customer-focused initiatives in Pharmacy Benefit Services and -2 points to lower claim volume[4]. Management said the decline was as expected, that slightly lower-than-expected GLP-1 volume growth and some employers restricting weight-loss drug coverage created a modest headwind, and that new business already secured for the 2027 selling season exceeds the prior two seasons combined; Signature is on track for Cigna Healthcare's fully insured plans in 2027 and a scaled launch in 2028, with long-term margins of about 4%[6].

The financial transmission is clear: concessions written into contracts, transition spending and lower claim volume reduce what Cigna retains per claim, while branded drug inflation and a rising specialty mix lift revenue without lifting retained profit. Based on company disclosures, third-quarter 2025 Pharmacy Benefit Services revenue was about $34.091 billion and profit about $975 million, a margin of about 2.9%, compared with about 1.8% in the second quarter of 2026 and about 1.2% in the first[1][4][8]. An alternative reading is that the concessions are not a one-time renewal reset but continuing price cuts under rebate-transparency pressure, in which case the decline will not narrow on its own once the renewals pass their first anniversary.

The third quarter can start to separate these readings. The key tests are whether profit falls no more than 35% from the roughly $975 million base, whether claim volume is still -2% or better, whether the 10-Q drag from client and customer initiatives is smaller than the second quarter's -11 points, and what the call says about Signature's progress and 2027 guidance. A decline of more than 35% would mean the concessions or spending exceeded the plan, and a volume decline wider than 4% would point to client losses.

The biosimilar-driven speed-up in specialty profit will not repeat at the same pace. Can Specialty and Care Services still carry Evernorth's profit?

Specialty is the only reason Evernorth's first-half profit held flat. In the first half of 2026, Specialty and Care Services profit rose 21%, exactly offsetting the 27% decline in Pharmacy Benefit Services and holding Evernorth flat at $3.129 billion[4]. The full-year Evernorth floor of $6.9 billion is unchanged, but management said plainly that the second-quarter boost from faster conversion will not repeat at the same magnitude in the second half, making the third quarter the first test of how much specialty growth is durable[5][6].

Current evidence shows profit growing much faster than revenue, mainly from conversion margins and efficiency. Second-quarter Specialty and Care Services revenue was $26.972 billion (+4%) and profit $1.054 billion (+22%); the 10-Q attributes +7 percentage points of the change in Evernorth profit to specialty growth and +4 points to operating efficiency, after a +13-point specialty growth contribution in the first quarter[4][11]. On the call, management said adoption of specialty generics and biosimilars was faster than expected and the Shields investment had begun to contribute, while the same conversion weighed on pharmacy benefits; the first-quarter call discussed biosimilar penetration for drugs such as Humira and Stelara[6][9].

The transmission runs as follows: switching branded specialty drugs to biosimilars or specialty generics lowers unit prices but raises retained gross profit, and together with specialty prescription growth and Shields' health-system pharmacy management it lifts specialty profit, offsets the pharmacy benefit decline and flows into Evernorth's pre-tax adjusted income. Based on company disclosures, third-quarter 2025 Specialty and Care Services revenue was about $26.300 billion and profit about $928 million, with total Evernorth profit of about $1.903 billion[1][4][8]. An alternative reading is that first-half growth came mainly from a one-time wave of switching for biosimilars such as Humira and Stelara, and that once switching is complete, profit growth will return to the roughly 8% pace of full-year 2025[1].

The gap between third-quarter profit growth and revenue growth, together with the 10-Q attribution, can show which reading is closer. The key tests are whether specialty profit grows at least 8% from the roughly $928 million base, whether revenue growth still trails profit growth clearly, whether Evernorth earns at least about $1.75 billion in the quarter, and whether Cigna keeps the full-year floor of $6.9 billion. Specialty growth below 8% would mean the conversion tailwind has faded, and Evernorth profit below about $1.75 billion with unchanged full-year guidance would push more of the second-half gap into the fourth quarter.

Can Cigna Healthcare keep its third-quarter medical care ratio at the 'slightly above Q2' level management guided?

The insurance business was one of the main sources of this year's two EPS guidance raises, and a cost-trend miss would be hard to repair within the year. Cigna Healthcare generated about 36% of combined segment profit in 2025, and its profit rose 17% in the first half of 2026[1][4]. Fully insured premiums are set annually, so medical costs that run ahead of pricing assumptions can only be fixed at the next renewal; the full-year 2025 MCR already rose 120 basis points because of IFP, a business Cigna will exit on January 1, 2027[1][4].

First-half results beat expectations, but partly for seasonal and one-time reasons. The first-quarter MCR of 79.8% benefited partly from lower flu volumes and weather-related care deferrals; the second-quarter MCR of 84.5% was up 130 basis points year over year, which the 10-Q attributes to higher prior-year risk adjustment benefits in IFP, while management said on the call that the result was slightly better than expected because of a strong US employer business and lower outpatient and surgical spending[9][4][6]. Full-year MCR guidance of 83.7% to 84.7% is unchanged, and the segment profit floor was raised from at least $4.5 billion to at least $4.525 billion and then $4.55 billion; medical customers totaled 18.413 million on June 30, up from 18.118 million at the end of 2025[10][8][3].

The financial transmission starts with employer clients' utilization: outpatient and surgical spending, stop-loss claims, IFP risk adjustment and payments under the No Surprises Act's independent dispute resolution process together determine medical costs on risk products, which drive the MCR and segment profit, with fees from ASO membership growth only partly offsetting them. Gross medical costs payable rose from $4.64 billion on June 30, 2025, and $4.92 billion on March 31, 2026, to $5.23 billion on June 30, 2026[3]. An alternative reading is that part of the first-half strength came from deferred care and seasonal factors, so that rebounding utilization in the second half, combined with dispute resolution decisions and settlements that mostly favor providers and rising stop-loss costs, could push the MCR above the seasonal path management described; management said this impact has so far remained within planning assumptions[6].

The combination of the third-quarter MCR and claim reserves can distinguish a genuinely stable cost trend from reserve releases. The key tests are whether the MCR stays at or below 86.0%, how Cigna describes its US employer business and stop-loss costs, whether the full-year profit floor of $4.55 billion holds, whether gross medical costs payable grow in line with premiums, and whether medical customers stay near 18.4 million. An MCR above 86.0% would mean employer cost trends have outrun pricing, and a cut to full-year profit guidance would mean the first-half improvement cannot be treated as durable.

Risks and Falsifiers

Legislation and regulation of pharmacy benefit management are the most direct long-term risk to Pharmacy Benefit Services. The Consolidated Appropriations Act passed in February 2026 requires pharmacy benefit managers serving ERISA employer plans to pass 100% of certain rebates and fees to plan sponsors starting in August 2028, and from January 2028 bars Medicare Part D compensation linked to drug list prices, which bears directly on a segment that produced about 48% of group revenue and $3.506 billion of pre-tax profit in 2025[1]. If the company confirms in its 2027 guidance and Signature rollout that the long-term margin of about 4% holds under the new rules, this concern would be weakened[6].

Client concentration means the segment's size depends on a few contracts. Centene, Prime Therapeutics and TRICARE each drive significant revenue, and although their contracts have been renewed or extended through the end of the decade, the renewal terms already carry weaker economics, so the loss or repricing of any one would materially change Pharmacy Benefit Services revenue and claim volume; the three clients' exact revenue shares are not disclosed[1]. If the company discloses no large-client termination or rebid and claim volume stops falling year over year, this risk has not materialized[4].

Operating cash flow is heavily concentrated in the second half, so capital returns and deleveraging depend on collections. First-half operating cash flow was only $710 million, as pharmacy and other service costs payable fell $4.108 billion and accounts receivable rose $2.044 billion, and the company also cited an unfavorable cash flow impact from the Inflation Reduction Act[4]. After about $1.3 billion of capital expenditures, buybacks and the move from a 42.8% debt-to-capitalization ratio toward about 40% both rely on second-half collections within full-year operating cash flow of about $9 billion[6][1]. A clear recovery in nine-month operating cash flow, a reaffirmed $9 billion target and continued buybacks and debt reduction would ease this risk.

Rebate transparency will keep pressing on the economics of each pharmacy benefit claim. Cigna already passes more than 95% of rebates to clients, the Signature model moves manufacturer discounts to the point of sale, and the large-client renewals traded weaker economics for longer terms[1][6]. First-half 2026 Pharmacy Benefit Services profit was $1.003 billion, $374 million below the prior-year $1.377 billion; against the roughly $975 million third-quarter base, each additional 10 points of decline would cost about $100 million of profit[4]. If the third-quarter decline narrows to within 20% and the company reaffirms Signature's long-term margin of about 4%, this risk would need to be scaled back.

The gross profit from biosimilar conversion may be a one-time release. Specialty and Care Services earned $373 million more in the first half than a year earlier ($2.126 billion versus $1.753 billion), the only support for Evernorth's flat profit; once switching is complete, unit prices keep falling and retained gross profit may narrow under competition, and a return to 8% growth would mean about $200 million less incremental profit in the second half[4]. If third-quarter specialty profit grows at least 15% and the company says specialty volume outside conversion and the Shields contribution are still growing, this risk would be falsified[6].

Medical cost trends that outrun fully insured pricing would raise the MCR in the current period. Employer premiums are set a year in advance, so higher use of outpatient care, specialty drugs and similar services, or dispute resolution payments that favor providers, would raise the cost ratio and pressure the segment's full-year profit floor of $4.55 billion[6][5]. If the third-quarter MCR is no higher than 85.0% and the company maintains or raises its full-year profit guidance, this risk has not materialized.

What to Watch Next

• Pharmacy benefit trough: second-quarter 2026 profit was $609 million (-27%) against a third-quarter 2025 base of about $975 million; a decline of no more than 35% would signal a floor, while a larger decline would mean concessions or spending exceeded the plan.
• Pharmacy benefit trough: Evernorth adjusted claim volume was 537 million in the second quarter (-2%); flat or better would confirm, while a decline wider than 4% would point to client losses.
• Pharmacy benefit trough: the 10-Q drag from client and customer initiatives was -11 points; a smaller drag would confirm.
• Specialty as the offset: second-quarter specialty profit was $1.054 billion (+22%) against a third-quarter 2025 base of about $928 million; growth of at least 8% would confirm, and growth below 8% would mean the conversion tailwind has faded.
• Specialty as the offset: Evernorth earned $1.663 billion in the second quarter against a full-year floor of $6.9 billion; at least about $1.75 billion in the quarter with guidance maintained would confirm.
• Employer medical costs: the second-quarter MCR was 84.5% against a full-year range of 83.7% to 84.7%; a third-quarter MCR at or below 86.0% would confirm, while a higher ratio would mean costs outran pricing.
• Employer medical costs: the segment profit floor is $4.55 billion and gross medical costs payable were $5.23 billion; maintained guidance would confirm, and a cut would falsify.
• Cash flow risk: first-half operating cash flow was $710 million against a full-year target of about $9 billion; a clear nine-month recovery and a reaffirmed target would confirm.

Conclusion

Cigna's profit engine is shifting gears: gross drug spending lifted second-quarter 2026 revenue to $71.668 billion, but retained pharmacy benefit profit fell about 27% because of renewal concessions and Signature spending, and Specialty and Care Services and Cigna Healthcare filled the gap with profit growth of 22% and 17%[3][4]. The full-year adjusted EPS floor of $30.45 implies at least $14.87 in the second half, split roughly evenly between the two quarters; on cash, first-half operating cash flow was only $710 million, and the full-year target of about $9 billion depends on second-half collections[5][6][4]. The central unresolved question is whether the pharmacy benefit decline stops in the third quarter while the specialty conversion tailwind and the employer medical care ratio avoid reversing at the same time.

Between the July 30 second-quarter release and October 29, no independent outside analysis addressing these core debates was found, so no cross-check of outside views is possible. Coverage in that period consisted mostly of event news on the investor day, the dividend, GLP-1 coverage and pharmacy benefit litigation, or brokers adjusting their views on the stock, none of which shows how the market weighs the three debates; readers should treat company guidance and the Drillr-compiled third-quarter EPS figure of $7.545 as the only reference points, not as an outside consensus judgment[7].

The combination that would materially strengthen the current understanding is a pharmacy benefit decline narrowing to within 35%, or even within 20%, with claim volume stabilizing, specialty profit growth holding above 8%, an MCR at or below 86.0% with full-year profit guidance maintained, and a clear recovery in nine-month operating cash flow. Conversely, if the pharmacy benefit decline widens, specialty growth falls back below 8% and the MCR breaks above 86.0% as deferred care returns, Evernorth's $6.9 billion floor and Cigna Healthcare's $4.55 billion floor would come under pressure at the same time, and the first-half profit mix could no longer be treated as durable.

Sources

[1] CI FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001739940&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[2] CI earnings calendar updated 2026-10-28 · 2026-10-28 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] CI Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001739940&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[4] CI Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001739940&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[5] CI 8-K filed 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001739940&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[6] CI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-30 · 2026-07-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] Drillr analyst consensus CI Q3 2026 retrieved 2026-10-28 · 2026-10-28 · Drillr earnings calendar consensus · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] CI Q1 2026 8-K filed 2026-04-30 · 2026-04-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001739940&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[9] CI Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-30 · 2026-04-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] CI 8-K filed 2026-03-03 · 2026-03-03 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001739940&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[11] CI Q1 2026 10-Q filed 2026-04-30 · 2026-04-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001739940&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40