[NGG] National Grid: Half-Year Results Test RIIO-T3 UK Transmission Profit

National Grid owns the high-voltage transmission network in England and Wales and one of the UK's largest distribution networks, and it runs electricity and gas networks in New York and Massachusetts. It will report National Grid half-year results on 2026-11-05 for the Half year 2026/27 (six months ended 30 September 2026) [1][2]. The company reports only every six months, and its latest complete disclosure covers fiscal 2025/26, the year ended March 31, 2026: underlying operating profit was £5.680 billion, up 6% (up 9% at constant currency), underlying EPS was 78.0 pence, capital investment was £11.576 billion, up 18%, and year-end net debt was £44.160 billion [1]. In an October 5 pre-close update, the company said its regulated businesses performed in line with expectations in the first half, while National Grid Ventures (NGV) and other activities delivered about £130 million more than expected, mainly from one-off fair value gains; as a result, full-year underlying EPS growth should come in slightly above its 13%-15% guidance and, as usual, be weighted to the second half [2]. The Drillr earnings calendar shows a half-year EPS consensus of $2.29 per ADS (one ADS represents five ordinary shares) and a revenue consensus of $10.154 billion, but it does not state the number of analysts or whether the figures are underlying or statutory; for the previous half year, the same source recorded an actual of $0.837, which matches statutory EPS, while its $1.85 estimate was closer to the underlying basis, so these figures may not be directly comparable with the company's reported numbers [3].

Three things matter most in these results. The first is whether UK Electricity Transmission (UK ET) can grow profit faster than its 18% full-year growth in 2025/26 in the first year of the RIIO-T3 price control, because the company attributes most of its 13%-15% EPS growth to higher allowed revenue under the new control [1][2]. The second is whether growth from new New York rates can offset the FERC cut to New England transmission returns, because the two US segments generate about 58% of underlying net revenue, and in 2025/26 New York profit rose 18% while New England fell 6% [1]. The third is whether half-year net debt and the quality of EPS can both hold up once faster investment and the Joulent deal are combined, because the upside in the raised EPS outlook comes from one-off gains and 2026/27 no longer has the roughly £2.8 billion of disposal proceeds the prior year had [1][2].

Company Background and Business Structure

Over the past two years National Grid has narrowed itself to a company built around regulated networks. Founded in 1990 and headquartered in London, it is listed on the London Stock Exchange, and its American depositary shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange as NGG; it sold the UK Electricity System Operator in 2024, sold US NG Renewables for $2.1 billion in May 2025, sold Grain LNG in November 2025, and in March 2026 published a five-year framework for 2026/27-2030/31 with at least £70 billion of capital investment, and it had 33,017 employees at the end of fiscal 2025/26 [1]. In July 2026, NGV agreed to acquire a 35% interest in Joulent, a US data-center power platform, for $1.75 billion [4]. In August the company announced a simpler organization: from September 1 the Group Executive Committee shrank from 13 to 8 members, with one President for the UK and one for the US, the US appointment being interim [5].

The company reports five segments, and each segment's revenue is set by its own regulatory rules. UK ET is a transmission monopoly regulated by Ofgem that bills transmission charges monthly in advance, with prices set before the fiscal year from allowed revenue and forecast volumes; UK Electricity Distribution (UK ED) charges suppliers for distribution under RIIO-ED2 [6]. New York (upstate electricity and gas, downstate gas) and New England (Massachusetts Electric, Boston Gas and New England Power transmission) bill end users under multi-year rate plans approved by state regulators, the distribution companies have revenue decoupling, and electricity and gas commodity costs pass through without margin; FERC-regulated transmission recovers costs and a base RoE each year through formula rates [6]. NGV runs subsea interconnectors between the UK and Europe, earning revenue from capacity sales and the price spread between markets, and owns generation that supplies the Long Island Power Authority [6].

The US business is the largest part of the revenue mix, while the UK business is the fastest-growing part of the asset base. Total revenue in 2025/26 was £17.687 billion; after £5.139 billion of pass-through costs, net revenue was £12.548 billion, and after removing timing differences, underlying net revenue was £13.184 billion, including £5.042 billion from New York, £2.629 billion from New England, £2.584 billion from UK ET, £1.869 billion from UK ED and £1.098 billion from NGV [1]. Costs are dominated by employees, contractors, depreciation (£2.247 billion in 2025/26), property taxes and interest; on the cash side, capital investment far exceeds operating cash flow, and the gap has to be filled by disposal proceeds, scrip dividends and new debt [1].

Financial History and Current Position

In fiscal 2025/26, National Grid kept growing profit even as revenue fell. For the year ended March 31, 2026, total revenue was £17.687 billion, down 4%; statutory operating profit was £5.431 billion, up 10%; and underlying operating profit was £5.680 billion, up 6%, or 9% at constant currency [1]. Statutory EPS was 65.5 pence and underlying EPS was 78.0 pence, compared with 73.3 pence a year earlier (72.0 pence at constant currency, an 8% increase); the dividend per share was 48.49 pence, up 3.8%, in line with CPIH inflation [1]. Statutory operating profit in the two earlier years was £4.934 billion (2024/25) and £4.475 billion (2023/24) [1].

Divergence across segment profits and the step-up in investment are the starting point for reading these half-year results. In 2025/26 underlying operating profit, UK ET earned £1.682 billion (+18%), UK ED £1.238 billion (+3%), New York £1.709 billion (+18%, +25% at constant currency), New England £866 million (−6%) and NGV £327 million (−14%), while other activities posted −£142 million [1]. Capital investment was £11.576 billion, up 18% (up 21% at constant currency), including £4.372 billion in UK ET (+46%), £3.428 billion in New York, £2.043 billion in New England and £1.617 billion in UK ED; the UK RAV rose to £36.986 billion (+12.8%), the US rate base rose to £29.452 billion (+10.3%), regulated assets grew 11.7% and group RoE was 9.8% [1][6].

Operating cash flow still does not cover investment, so debt kept rising. In 2025/26, net cash inflow from operating activities was £7.829 billion, and the sales of NG Renewables and Grain LNG brought in about £2.8 billion; together they funded about £10.6 billion of investing cash outflows [7]. Net debt rose from £41.371 billion to £44.160 billion, regulatory gearing held at 61%, FFO/adjusted net debt was 13.0% and RCF/adjusted net debt was 9.3%, the latter down 50 basis points from the prior year but still above the 7% rating threshold [1][7]. At the end of March 2026, £584 million of timing differences were due to be recovered, compared with £65 million due to be returned a year earlier [1].

Official updates since the fiscal year ended have focused on funding and first-half performance. On July 22, 2026, the company issued 50.86 million shares under its scrip dividend for the 2025/26 final dividend, at 1,197.70 pence per share [8]. The October 5 pre-close update said operating profit in UK transmission and distribution should be broadly evenly split across the year, US regulated profits should be weighted to the second half as usual, and New England should return to a more typical seasonal profile after the one-off impact of the FERC judgment in the second half of 2025/26; half-year net debt, after the Joulent investment, should be broadly in line with full-year guidance [2].

Operating Model

National Grid's revenue roughly equals regulated assets times the allowed return, plus depreciation, allowed operating spending, incentives and pass-through costs. In the UK, Ofgem price controls set allowed revenue: UK ET moved to RIIO-T3 in April 2026, UK ED remains under RIIO-ED2, and RAV is indexed to CPIH; in the US, state regulators' multi-year rate plans set the revenue requirement from rate base, allowed RoE and operating costs, the distribution companies have revenue decoupling, commodity costs pass through at cost, and FERC transmission uses formula rates [6]. In 2025/26, total revenue of £17.687 billion minus £5.139 billion of pass-through costs gave net revenue of £12.548 billion, and adding back £636 million of timing differences gave underlying net revenue of £13.184 billion; growth comes from asset growth driven by capital investment (regulated assets +11.7%), inflation indexation and new rate plans, while NGV's interconnector revenue has no price-control protection [1]. Investment reaches revenue with a lag: in the UK, the fast-money portion enters allowed revenue in the same year, while the slow-money portion first goes into RAV and is recovered over later years through returns and depreciation [6].

Underlying operating profit equals underlying net revenue minus controllable costs, bad debt, depreciation and amortization, and other costs such as property taxes, and returns above the allowance come from each business's performance against its allowed return. In 2025/26, UK ET achieved an RoE of 8.2% (allowed 7.2%), UK ED 8.1% (allowed 7.6%), New York 9.0% (allowed 9.4%) and New England 9.2% (allowed 9.6%) [1][6]. Underlying EPS then deducts £1.271 billion of net finance costs, tax and minority interests and is divided by 4.946 billion weighted average shares to reach 78.0 pence; the gap to statutory EPS of 65.5 pence comes from timing differences, exceptional items and deferred tax in the UK regulated businesses [1]. Regulatory lag, when costs rise before rates do, therefore lowers achieved RoE, while interest costs and a larger share count dilute EPS directly, below the operating line [1][6].

Operating cash flow comes mainly from recovered depreciation and regulated profit, but timing differences and US seasonality concentrate cash in the second half. In 2025/26, continuing operations generated £7.861 billion of cash, purchases of property, plant and intangibles were about £10.575 billion, the NG Renewables sale brought in £1.473 billion and the Grain LNG sale £1.336 billion, net interest paid was about £1.7 billion, cash dividends were £1.623 billion, and net debt rose by about £2.8 billion [7]. Scrip dividends reduce cash dividends, with roughly 40% of the final dividend paid in July settled in shares, and the £584 million of timing differences due to be recovered at the end of March will come back through future rates [1][8].

Several measurement limits matter when reading the half-year report. The company reports only every six months and gives no quarterly data, and achieved RoE, RAV, rate base, FFO and RCF are fully disclosed only in the annual report, so the half-year report mostly describes them in words [1]. Underlying figures are company non-GAAP measures that exclude timing differences, exceptional items, deferrable storm costs and UK deferred tax, and US growth should be read at constant currency; most of the growth benchmarks above are full-year figures, so half-year comparisons should use the prior-year comparatives disclosed in the half-year report itself [1]. UK ED is in the fourth year of RIIO-ED2, with 2025/26 underlying operating profit of £1.238 billion, up 3%, as revenue growth and depreciation growth roughly offset each other, and it serves as background in the half-year report [1].

Industry and Competitive Position

National Grid is one of the largest grid operators in the UK and the US Northeast, and its regulated networks face no direct competition. It owns the entire high-voltage transmission network in England and Wales and a distribution network serving about 20 million customers, it is a major electricity and gas distributor in New York and Massachusetts, its 3.8 GW of Long Island generation is about 65% of the island's capacity, and NGV runs one of Europe's largest portfolios of high-voltage subsea interconnectors [1].

Competitive pressure for a company like this comes from how regulators set returns, from bill affordability and from policy change, not from rivals winning customers. RIIO-T3 in the UK sets a real cost of equity of 5.70% (at 55% gearing); allowed RoE across the US operating companies ranges from 9.4% to 9.7%, while in 2025/26 New York achieved 9.0% and New England 9.2%, both below their allowances [6].

The company's strengths are scale and the spread of regulation across two countries, and its weaknesses are the size of its investment program and a heavy reliance on regulatory decisions and supply chains. Because the two regulatory systems are independent, an adverse ruling on one side does not pass directly to the other, but an investment plan of at least £70 billion over five years also means the company needs a steady flow of regulatory approvals and equipment deliveries [1][6]. The available material does not provide a line-by-line financial comparison with other UK and US grid companies, so it can describe the company's position within its own regulatory frameworks but cannot rank it against peers.

Core Debates

In the first year of RIIO-T3, can UK transmission profit grow faster than it did in the last year of the previous price control?

This question decides whether National Grid's 2026/27 EPS growth rests on its regulated business. UK ET contributes about 30% of group underlying operating profit, and the UK RAV grew 12.8% in 2025/26, the fastest-growing part of the group's assets [1]. The company attributes most of its 13%-15% underlying EPS growth for 2026/27 to the higher allowed revenue that comes with the switch from RIIO-T2 to RIIO-T3, and on October 5 it said growth would come in slightly above that range; if the jump in transmission profit does not appear, EPS growth would have to rely on non-regulated one-off gains [2].

The final year of the previous price control has already set a high base. In 2025/26, UK ET underlying operating profit was £1.682 billion, up 18%, and underlying net revenue was £2.584 billion, up £269 million (+12%), mainly from higher totex allowances (including fast money from spending on ASTI, the large transmission projects) and inflation uplifts linked to RAV [1][6]. UK ET capital investment that year was £4.372 billion, up 46%, and achieved RoE was 8.2%, above the 7.2% base allowed return; RIIO-T3 raises the real cost of equity to 5.70% (at 55% gearing) and lifts the fast-money share to 30% [1][6].

The chain runs from capital investment to earnings per share. Of capital investment under ASTI and the RIIO-T3 plan, 30% enters allowed revenue in the same year as fast money and the rest goes into RAV as slow money; RAV times a higher allowed return, plus RAV depreciation and incentives, forms UK ET underlying net revenue, which becomes underlying operating profit after controllable costs and depreciation and then feeds underlying EPS [6]. Conversely, slower investment or a totex overspend would lower both revenue and returns through less fast money and the cost-sharing mechanism [6].

What remains unresolved is whether the parameter changes will show up fully in the first year's half-year numbers. An alternative explanation is that first-year revenue gains could be offset by higher depreciation, staff and supply-chain costs, or that the new totex sharing mechanism and the timing of output incentives could make first-half growth lower than the parameter changes imply [6]. Only growth in both revenue and profit above the previous control's final year would rule out that explanation.

Three sets of numbers matter in the half-year report. The first is whether UK ET first-half underlying operating profit grows faster than the 18% full-year rate in 2025/26, the second is UK ET underlying net revenue growth and how the company describes the contribution of RIIO-T3 allowed revenue and fast money, and the third is whether UK ET capital investment keeps growing at double digits and whether ASTI projects are delayed [1][2]. If first-half UK ET profit growth falls below 18%, the new parameters have not come through as expected; if capital investment slows, fast-money revenue and future RAV growth will weaken with it.

Can growth from new New York rates offset the FERC cut to New England transmission returns?

The two US segments determine the other half of the group's profit growth. New York and New England together contribute about 58% of group underlying net revenue and about 45% of underlying operating profit, and the US rate base grew 10.3% in 2025/26 [1]. New York was the largest source of the group's profit increase in 2025/26, adding £342 million at constant currency, while New England declined because of the FERC ruling; the relative path of the two in the first half will decide whether the US business can keep supporting the 8%-10% EPS compound annual growth in the five-year framework [1].

New York's growth came from new rates and cost recovery, while New England's decline came from a cut to its regulated return and higher costs. In 2025/26, New York underlying operating profit was £1.709 billion (+18%, +25% at constant currency), and underlying net revenue rose £757 million at constant currency, driven by updated rates (including a higher storm-cost allowance) and recovery of previously uncompensated environmental and property-tax costs; achieved RoE was 9.0% against an allowed 9.4% [1][6]. New England underlying operating profit was £866 million (−6%, −1% at constant currency), as growth in rates and capital-tracker revenue was offset by the FERC ruling, bad debt and property taxes; achieved RoE was 9.2% against an allowed 9.6% [1][6]. US regulated capital investment totaled £5.471 billion, including £3.428 billion in New York (+11% at constant currency) and £2.043 billion in New England (+24% at constant currency) [1].

FERC's return decision directly determines New England transmission profit. In March 2026, FERC cut the base RoE for the New England transmission owners and ordered refunds with interest, and in April 2026 the transmission owners applied for a prospective RoE of 11.39%; New England Power's most recent allowed RoE is 9.6%, and it achieved 10.1% in 2025/26 [6]. In the US, the revenue requirement approved by state regulators equals rate base times allowed RoE plus operating costs and depreciation, which becomes underlying net revenue through decoupling and then underlying operating profit after controllable costs, bad debt, depreciation and property taxes; retroactive refunds reduce current revenue, and regulatory lag, when costs rise before rates, lowers achieved RoE [6].

What remains unresolved is which changes on each side are one-off and which will persist. An alternative explanation is that part of New York's strong 2025/26 growth came from one-off cost recovery, so growth would naturally slow in the second year of the new rate plan; New England's decline may also be more than a one-off refund and instead reflect a lasting profit reduction from a lower prospective FERC RoE [1][6]. The half-year report's explanation of New York's growth sources and the direction of New England's year-over-year change are the key to telling these explanations apart.

The half-year report needs to be read for signals from New York, New England and FERC. For New York, the test is first-half underlying operating profit growth at constant currency and how the company splits rate increases from cost recovery; for New England, the test is whether first-half profit returns to normal seasonality and stops falling year over year, and on October 5 the company already said it expects New England to return to a more typical seasonal profile [2]; for FERC, the test is progress on the 11.39% prospective RoE application and whether any further refunds are booked [6]. If FERC keeps a lower prospective RoE and New England transmission profit keeps falling, or New York costs grow faster than rates allow and achieved RoE stays below the allowed return, the US contribution to EPS growth will weaken.

With investment accelerating and Joulent added on top, can National Grid protect both its balance sheet and the quality of its EPS?

Funding pressure reaches earnings per share through two channels: interest costs and a larger share count. The five-year framework raises capital investment to at least £70 billion, with assets compounding at about 10% a year and regulatory gearing climbing back from 61% toward the upper part of the 60% range [1]. About £10.6 billion of investing cash outflows in 2025/26 were funded by £7.8 billion of operating cash flow and £2.8 billion of disposal proceeds, but 2026/27 has no large disposal proceeds and adds the $1.75 billion Joulent investment [4][7].

Credit metrics still have headroom, but the raised EPS outlook rests on one-off gains. At the end of March 2026, net debt was £44.160 billion, regulatory gearing was 61%, FFO/adjusted net debt was 13.0% and RCF/adjusted net debt was 9.3%, above the 10% and 7% thresholds respectively [1][7]. The 2025/26 final dividend of 32.14 pence required about £1.598 billion, and in July the scrip dividend issued about 50.86 million shares (at 1,197.70 pence each, worth about £610 million), which on this basis reduced the cash dividend by roughly 40% [8]. On October 5 the company said full-year EPS growth would come in slightly above 13%-15%, but the upside comes from about £130 million of one-off gains in NGV and other activities while the regulated businesses were only in line with expectations; in 2025/26, NGV and other activities together earned £185 million of underlying operating profit (NGV £327 million, other activities −£142 million) [1][2].

Faster investment shows up first as cash outflow and then passes through debt to EPS and credit metrics. Higher capital investment means larger investing cash outflows, which must be covered by second-half-weighted operating cash flow, scrip dividends and new debt; the result is higher net debt and regulatory gearing, higher interest costs and, in the end, pressure on underlying EPS and credit metrics [7]. NGV's fair value gains and interconnector spreads add to current profit but are not recurring; the Joulent investment uses balance-sheet capacity, and its first project, Kilby, is a 2.67 GW co-located power facility in West Texas owned 50/50 with Chevron that will supply a Microsoft-operated data center under a 20-year power purchase agreement, with first power in 2028 and cash returns arriving only after the early 2030s [4].

What remains unresolved is what the raised EPS outlook actually reflects. An alternative explanation is that the raised EPS outlook reflects one-off gains more than improvement in the regulated businesses, while faster investment combined with Joulent could push gearing up faster than the framework envisions [2][4]. The half-year report's capital investment growth, its description of net debt and the way it separates NGV's one-off gains can distinguish between these explanations.

The half-year report needs to be read on investment, debt and earnings quality. On investment, the test is whether group first-half capital investment growth approaches the roughly 20% the framework requires; on debt, it is half-year net debt and the company's comments on full-year gearing and credit metrics; on earnings quality, it is whether NGV's one-off fair value gains are shown separately and whether regulated growth still supports 13%-15% once they are removed [1][2]. If net debt or credit metrics drift from guidance and force the company to change the pace of investment or raise more equity, or if the Joulent final investment decision is delayed or requires more capital, the current understanding would be weakened.

Risks and Falsifiers

Affordability and political risk directly affect US allowed revenue and approval of new UK investment. In its annual report the company said neither rate impacts seen as unfair nor new load that harms reliability can be an outcome of this growth cycle, and the regulatory and political climate in both the UK and the US is shifting around energy bills; if the downstate New York gas and Massachusetts gas rate cases are approved below the amounts requested, US allowed revenue and achieved RoE would fall, and UK scrutiny of network costs could affect approval of new investment under reopener mechanisms [6]. If rate cases are approved with revenue requirements that match the investment plan and new UK investment keeps getting funded through regulatory mechanisms, this risk would not hold.

Execution risk from the reorganization centers on capital delivery and cost control. From September 1, 2026, the Group Executive Committee shrank from 13 to 8 members, with one President for the UK and one for the US (the US role is interim while a search continues), and a new Global Capital delivery team was created, while financial reporting segments are unchanged [5]. A break in capital delivery or cost control during the transition would show up in capital investment growth and controllable costs; if the half-year report shows capital investment growing on plan and no unusual rise in controllable costs, this risk has not materialized.

Delivery and cost risk affects both UK ET revenue and returns. The scale of RIIO-T3 investment will strain global equipment and labor supply chains, and projects will be delayed if long-lead equipment cannot be procured on time; totex overspends are shared by the company at rates from 25% (overspend within 5%) down to 5% (overspend above 20%), and output incentives also carry penalties [6]. Investment below plan reduces fast-money revenue and RAV growth, while overspending directly lowers UK ET achieved RoE; if first-half UK ET capital investment grows at least 15% year over year and the company reports no major project delays or overspends, this risk has not materialized.

Regulated return risk centers on the FERC ruling in New England. In March 2026 FERC cut the base RoE for the New England transmission owners and ordered refunds with interest; the company is challenging the ruling and has applied for an 11.39% prospective RoE, with the outcome pending; the New England FERC rate base is $3.347 billion, and each 1 percentage point cut to the prospective RoE would reduce after-tax profit by roughly $18 million a year, on a rough calculation using an equity ratio of about 55% [6]. Retroactive refunds reduce current revenue, and in 2025/26 the company had already recognized a refund receivable at Massachusetts Electric, creating a £94 million timing over-recovery; if FERC accepts a prospective RoE of at least 9.6% and the company books no further refund provision in the half-year report, this risk would be lifted [6].

Non-regulated capital risk comes from the nature of the Joulent investment. Joulent invests in contracted power rather than regulated networks, and the company says its returns exceed regulated returns, but its first project delivers power only in 2028 and turns free-cash-flow positive only in the early 2030s [4]. Before it generates cash, the $1.75 billion investment adds to net debt and interest costs, and project delays or cost overruns would erode expected returns with no protection from regulatory price controls; if a final investment decision is reached by the end of 2026 and the company reaffirms that the five-year framework and rating metrics are unaffected, this risk would ease [4].

What to Watch Next

• UK transmission in the first RIIO-T3 year: UK ET underlying operating profit was £1.682 billion in 2025/26, up 18% [1]. First-half growth above 18% would support the view that the new parameters are coming through; growth below 18% would weaken it.
• UK ET net revenue and investment: net revenue was £2.584 billion (+12%) and capital investment £4.372 billion (+46%) [1]. Track how the company describes allowed revenue and fast money, and whether ASTI is delayed; investment growth of at least 15% with no major delays would confirm the plan.
• New York versus New England: New York profit was £1.709 billion, up 25% at constant currency, and New England £866 million, down 6%, with an 11.39% FERC application against a 9.6% allowed return [1][6]. Growth driven by rates rather than one-off recovery, and a New England result that stops falling with no further refunds, would confirm the current view; continued decline would falsify it.
• Balance sheet and EPS quality: capital investment was £11.576 billion (+18%) and net debt £44.160 billion [1]; NGV added about £130 million of one-off first-half upside and Joulent costs $1.75 billion [2][4]. Investment growth near 20%, credit metrics in line with guidance, separately disclosed one-off gains and regulated growth that still supports 13%-15% would confirm the view; drifting credit metrics or a need for more equity would falsify it.

Conclusion

National Grid's profit is set by the size of its regulated assets, its allowed returns and the pace of investment, and the central relationship now is that faster investment raises future revenue but also raises current debt and interest pressure. In 2025/26 the company earned £5.680 billion of underlying operating profit and 78.0 pence of underlying EPS, invested £11.576 billion, and saw net debt rise to £44.160 billion with regulatory gearing at 61% [1][7]. The company guides to 2026/27 EPS growth slightly above 13%-15%, but the upside comes from about £130 million of one-off NGV gains, and growth in the regulated business still has to be shown by UK transmission profit in the first RIIO-T3 year and by new New York rates [2].

Since the annual report on June 3, public coverage has mainly been event news about the Joulent investment, the scrip dividend and the reorganization, and one report relaying a J.P. Morgan view on Joulent returns could not be verified against an original source, so there is currently no attributable, verifiable independent institutional interpretation to set against these three debates [4][5][8]. That makes the November 5 half-year report itself the main test of the three debates, and the company's segment commentary needs to be compared directly with the full-year bases in the annual report.

If the half-year report shows UK ET profit growth above 18%, New York growth driven mainly by rates while New England stops declining, and group capital investment growing near 20% with net debt and credit metrics in line with guidance, the current understanding would be meaningfully strengthened. Conversely, if UK ET growth falls below 18%, New England keeps being dragged down by the FERC return cut, or regulated growth excluding NGV's one-off gains is not enough to support 13%-15% while net debt rises faster than the framework, the current understanding would be weakened.

Sources

[1] NGG FY2026 20-F filed 2026-06-03 · 2026-06-03 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001004315&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[2] NGG 6-K filed 2026-10-05 (pre-close update) · 2026-10-05 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001004315&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[3] Drillr earnings calendar NGG 2026-11-05 retrieved 2026-10-28 · 2026-10-28 · Drillr earnings calendar · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[4] NGG 6-K filed 2026-07-01 (Joulent investment) · 2026-07-01 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001004315&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[5] NGG 6-K filed 2026-08-03 (operating model) · 2026-08-03 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001004315&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[6] NGG FY2026 20-F filed 2026-06-03 (regulation and segments) · 2026-06-03 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001004315&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[7] NGG FY2026 20-F filed 2026-06-03 (cash, funding and timing) · 2026-06-03 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001004315&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[8] NGG 6-K filed 2026-07-22 (scrip dividend) · 2026-07-22 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001004315&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40