[FCX] Freeport-McMoRan: Q3 2026 earnings preview as Grasberg ramps toward 65% of capacity

Freeport-McMoRan is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers, mining in the United States, South America and Indonesia and producing gold and molybdenum alongside copper[1]. The Drillr earnings calendar lists the company's earnings call for 2026-10-22, covering the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026; the company released each of the past two quarters on the fourth Thursday after quarter end, but as of September 22 it had not yet published a formal notice of the date[2]. In the most recently disclosed period, the second quarter of 2026, revenue was $7.029 billion on sales of 710 million pounds of copper, 123 thousand ounces of gold and 25 million pounds of molybdenum, the realized copper price averaged $6.17 per pound, consolidated unit net cash costs were $1.97 per pound, and net income attributable to common stock was $984 million ($0.68 per share), or $0.74 per share adjusted after excluding $96 million of net mud-rush-related charges[3][4]. The company guides only volumes and costs for the third quarter: 750 million pounds of copper, 160 thousand ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum, unit net cash costs of about $2.00 per pound and idle facility and restoration costs of about $0.3 billion; for the full year it guides 3.1 billion pounds of copper, unit costs of $1.90 per pound and idle costs of $1.2 billion, and, assuming second-half prices of $6.00 copper, $4,000 gold and $30 molybdenum, operating cash flow of about $8.3 billion and capital expenditures of $4.3 billion[5][6][7][8]. Analyst consensus compiled by Drillr puts third-quarter revenue at an average of $7.317 billion (7 analysts, range $7.006 billion to $7.658 billion) and earnings per share at an average of $0.73 (10 analysts, range $0.62 to $0.85); the revenue average is above the second-quarter actual of $7.029 billion, and the EPS average sits between the second quarter's $0.68 GAAP and $0.74 adjusted figures[9].

Three things in this Freeport-McMoRan Q3 2026 earnings preview deserve close attention. First, whether the Grasberg ramp-up is genuinely tracking plan: the Block Cave underground mine averaged 53,000 metric tons per day in the second quarter, rising from 34,000 in April to 69,000 in June, and the company's plan calls for about 65% of district capacity in the second half; because Indonesian sales are recognized only after smelting and third-quarter production will run well above sales, mill throughput and the $0.3 billion idle-cost guide say more about the ramp than Indonesian sales volumes do[10][11][12][13]. Second, whether the U.S. mines can convert the second quarter's operating gains, a Morenci mining rate 30% above the five-year average and leach ore placement of 885,400 metric tons per day, into higher copper sales while holding U.S. unit net cash costs inside the $2.96-per-pound full-year guide despite diesel and sulfuric-acid inflation, because the second quarter's $2.94 improvement came entirely from molybdenum credits rising from $0.55 to $0.92 while site costs rose from $3.44 to $3.71[14][15][16]. Third, cash: second-quarter operating cash flow of $2.048 billion included a one-time $0.7 billion insurance recovery, the $8.3 billion full-year guide implies roughly $2.38 billion per quarter in the second half, and the questions are whether the third quarter approaches that level without insurance money and whether the $2.1 billion of net debt against a $3 billion to $4 billion target keeps its headroom once a Bagdad expansion decision of about $4.5 billion and heavier buybacks come into play[8][17][18][19]. These disclosures can confirm or weaken three readings, and smelter inventory deferral and price effects may leave some of them unresolved.

Company Background and Business Structure

Freeport-McMoRan is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, describes its goal as being "foremost in copper," and is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers[1]. It mines in three regions: in the United States it has seven copper mines in Arizona and New Mexico, two molybdenum mines in Colorado, the Miami smelter and the El Paso refinery; in South America it operates Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile; and in Indonesia it operates the Grasberg district, one of the world's largest copper and gold deposits, through PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), in which it holds 48.76% and which it manages[20]. At the end of 2025, consolidated proven and probable recoverable reserves were 112.3 billion pounds of copper, 20.6 million ounces of gold and 3.5 billion pounds of molybdenum; 2025 mine production was 3.4 billion pounds of copper, 1.0 million ounces of gold and 92 million pounds of molybdenum, with 39% of copper output from the United States, 31% from South America and 30% from Indonesia, and 98% of gold from Indonesia[21]. On September 8, 2025, a mud rush at the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine killed seven employees and halted the district for a time, damaging 2025 production and results; that event and the phased restart that followed are the starting point for understanding every quarter of 2026[22].

The company manages four mining divisions, U.S. copper mines, South America operations, Indonesia operations and molybdenum mines, plus two downstream divisions, U.S. rod and refining and the Atlantic Copper smelting and refining business in Spain[23]. Consolidated revenue in 2025 was $25.9 billion, of which copper was 75%, gold 15% and molybdenum 8%; of the copper sold, 43% was concentrate, 33% cathode and 24% rod[24][25]. Most U.S. mine copper is cast into rod at the company's own rod plants and sold to U.S. customers, so the U.S. copper mines division reports very little external revenue ($28 million in the second quarter of 2026) and the external sales show up in rod and refining ($2.228 billion); in the same quarter South America reported $1.482 billion of external revenue, Indonesia $1.482 billion and Atlantic Copper $1.024 billion, for a consolidated $7.029 billion[26].

The regional distribution of profit looks very different from revenue. Of 2025 operating income of $6.518 billion, Indonesia contributed $3.840 billion, South America $2.004 billion, U.S. copper mines $1.638 billion and molybdenum mines $88 million[23]; in the second quarter of 2026, with Grasberg at partial capacity, Indonesia fell to $499 million while U.S. copper mines at $834 million and South America at $840 million became the largest sources[26]. On pricing, U.S. mine copper sells at the COMEX monthly average settlement price and South American and Indonesian copper at the LME monthly average; some contracts are finally priced one to four months after shipment, so rising copper prices bring retroactive positive adjustments ($98 million in the second quarter) and falling prices the reverse[27][4]. Before 2025 part of Grasberg's concentrate was exported to third-party smelters, but with PTFI's own smelter and precious metals refinery now built, all concentrate is processed in Indonesia, PTFI has become an integrated producer of refined copper, gold and silver, sales are recognized only after smelting, and a timing gap between production and sales has appeared[28]. Shareholder returns follow a framework of base dividend plus performance-based variable dividend plus buybacks: a quarterly base dividend of $0.075 plus a variable dividend of $0.075, and up to 50% of cash available after planned capital spending and distributions to noncontrolling interests returned to shareholders, provided net debt stays within the $3 billion to $4 billion target (excluding $3.2 billion of project debt for PTFI's downstream facilities)[29][18].

Financial History and Current Position

Over the past five years revenue has ranged between $22.4 billion and $25.9 billion, with the direction set by the copper price and Grasberg's output. Consolidated revenue in 2025 was $25.9 billion (2024: $25.5 billion); copper sales fell from 4.066 billion pounds to 3.574 billion pounds and gold from 1.837 million ounces to 1.066 million ounces, but the average copper price rose from $4.21 to $4.75 per pound and gold from $2,418 to $3,423 per ounce, so higher prices offset the volume lost to the mud rush[24][27]. Unit net cash costs rose from $1.56 to $1.65 per pound (excluding $0.17 per pound of idle facility costs), operating income was $6.518 billion and net income attributable to common stock was $2.2 billion (2024: $1.9 billion)[23]. Production and delivery costs of $16.4 billion in 2025 included $625 million of mud-rush idle and direct recovery costs and an $81 million PTFI asset impairment[30]; at year end cash was $3.8 billion, debt $9.4 billion and net debt $2.3 billion (excluding the $3.2 billion of PTFI downstream project debt)[18].

The first half of 2026 was defined by lower volumes, higher prices and the U.S. taking over. First-quarter revenue was $6.234 billion on 657 million pounds of copper at an average $5.78, unit costs of $1.91 and attributable net income of $881 million ($0.61 per share)[31]; second-quarter revenue was $7.029 billion (second quarter of 2025: $7.582 billion) on 710 million pounds of copper (1.016 billion), an average price of $6.17 ($4.54), unit costs of $1.97 ($1.13), gold sales of 123 thousand ounces (522 thousand), operating income of $2.003 billion and attributable net income of $984 million ($0.68 per share), or $0.74 per share adjusted after excluding $96 million of net mud-rush-related charges; first-half attributable net income of $1.865 billion was 65% above the $1.124 billion of a year earlier[3][4]. Second-quarter divisional operating income was $834 million for U.S. copper mines, $840 million for South America, $499 million for Indonesia and $31 million for molybdenum mines[26]; Indonesia sold 153 million pounds of copper (443 million a year earlier) and 118 thousand ounces of gold (518 thousand), the Block Cave milled 53,000 metric tons per day (114,500), and idle and restoration costs were $284 million ($690 million for the first half)[32][10]. On cash, second-quarter operating cash flow was $2.048 billion (including a $0.7 billion insurance recovery received by PTFI and after a $0.6 billion working-capital use) and capital expenditures were $1.104 billion; at June 30 cash was $4.080 billion, debt $9.386 billion and net debt $2.1 billion, the company repurchased 3.4 million shares for $203 million in the first half, and the quarterly dividend was $0.15 per share[8][17][29].

The full-year 2026 guidance given in July is copper sales of 3.1 billion pounds (broken down in the 10-Q as 1.360 billion U.S., 1.022 billion South America and 675 million Indonesia), 654 thousand ounces of gold and 93 million pounds of molybdenum, including 750 million pounds of copper, 160 thousand ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum in the third quarter; unit net cash costs of $1.90 per pound for the year ($2.00 in the third quarter); idle facility costs of $1.2 billion for the year ($0.3 billion in the third quarter); and, assuming second-half prices of $6.00 copper, $4,000 gold and $30 molybdenum, operating cash flow of about $8.3 billion and capital expenditures of $4.3 billion[5][7][6][8]. Compared with the February annual report, full-year copper sales guidance came down from 3.38 billion pounds to 3.1 billion, mainly because Indonesia fell from 900 million pounds to 675 million, unit cost guidance rose from $1.75 to $1.90 and idle costs from $0.9 billion to $1.2 billion, all traceable to the slower Block Cave ramp caused by the chute modifications disclosed in April[33][34][35]. The annual report's operating cash flow guide was about $8 billion (assuming $5.00 copper for the year), and July raised it to about $8.3 billion on higher price assumptions[34].

Operating Model

Revenue is roughly the sum of three metals' volume times the market price of the period, plus processing revenue from the two downstream divisions. Copper is the core (75% of 2025 revenue): copper revenue equals consolidated copper sales times the realized price, with U.S. mines priced at the COMEX monthly average and South America and Indonesia at the LME monthly average; second-quarter consolidated sales of 710 million pounds at an average $6.17 produced roughly $4.4 billion of copper revenue[25][4]. Gold comes almost entirely from Grasberg and is the Indonesian division's second revenue source, with second-quarter sales of 123 thousand ounces at an average $4,520; molybdenum comes from two primary mines in Colorado and as a by-product of the U.S. and Cerro Verde copper mines, with second-quarter sales of 25 million pounds at an average $28.75[21][3]. Volumes depend on three production lines: Grasberg's three underground mines in Indonesia produce about 1.7 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold a year at normal rates, but 2026 is planned at only 675 million pounds of copper and 650 thousand ounces of gold because of the Block Cave restart, and because concentrate must be processed by PT Smelting and PTFI's own smelter before sales are recognized, roughly 100 million pounds of copper and 50 thousand ounces of gold will be deferred as smelter inventory in the third quarter[36][7][5]; the seven U.S. mines (led by Morenci) are planned at 1.36 billion pounds in 2026, with the increment coming from a Morenci mining rate 30% above the five-year average and from leach innovation (47 million incremental pounds in the second quarter, targeting a 300-million-pound annual run rate by year end)[14][37]; and Cerro Verde and El Abra in South America are planned at 1.022 billion pounds, with the second quarter down year over year on lower leach production and the processing of lower-grade stockpiles[38]. Price is a variable the company cannot control but can quantify: on the 2027-2028 production structure, each $0.10 per pound change in copper moves annual EBITDA by about $390 million, and for the second half of 2026 each $0.10 moves operating cash flow by about $150 million[39][8].

Most mine cash costs are fixed, so unit costs move inversely with volume, and nowhere is this clearer than at Grasberg[40]. At normal rates the Indonesian division's gold by-product credits make its unit net cash cost per pound of copper negative (a net credit of $0.99 per pound in the second quarter of 2025); with second-quarter 2026 output at about 30% of normal, the net credit shrank to $0.81 per pound, and the full-year guide is a net credit of $1.22 per pound[32][41]. At the same time, because the mine is below full capacity, part of production and delivery costs is accounted for as non-inventoriable "idle facility costs" charged directly to the period rather than to unit costs, $284 million in the second quarter and an expected $1.2 billion for the year ($0.3 billion in the third quarter), which makes that line a direct financial gauge of ramp-up progress[7]. The U.S. mines are the highest-cost segment: second-quarter unit net cash costs of $2.94 per pound (site costs of $3.71 less a $0.92 molybdenum by-product credit) against a full-year guide of $2.96; South America was $2.48 ($2.56 for the year)[16][42]. Consolidated unit net cash costs were $1.97 in the second quarter, $2.00 guided for the third quarter and $1.90 for the year, slightly below April's $1.95 because higher molybdenum and gold credits more than offset diesel, sulfur and sulfuric-acid inflation[6][39]. The exogenous cost variables are energy and consumables: energy is about 15% of mine site operating costs (about 275 million gallons of diesel purchased in 2025), diesel and sulfuric-acid prices jumped after the Middle East conflict began in late February 2026, management estimated the March diesel increase at about $500 million of annualized cost, and the company's smelters in the United States, Spain and Indonesia produce acid, giving a natural hedge on sulfuric acid[43][44][45][46].

Two large deductions sit between gross profit and net income: income taxes, expected at $2.6 billion in 2026, with high rates in Indonesia and Peru while the United States has nearly $6 billion of loss carryforwards and pays only a 6%-7% minimum tax; and noncontrolling interests, with the Indonesian government holding 51% of PTFI and minority holders 44% of Cerro Verde, which took $407 million in the second quarter[8][47][3]. That explains why second-quarter operating income fell year over year ($2.003 billion versus $2.432 billion) while attributable net income rose ($984 million versus $772 million): profit shifted from high-tax, minority-heavy Indonesia to the lightly taxed, wholly owned U.S. mines[26][3]. Operating cash flow equals volume times price less cash costs, taxes and working capital, guided at about $8.3 billion for 2026 (on $6.00 second-half copper), with the second quarter's $2.048 billion including the $0.7 billion one-time insurance recovery[8]. Cash is allocated in three layers under the financial policy: first $4.3 billion of capital expenditures, $1.3 billion sustaining and $3.0 billion major projects ($1.4 billion of planned projects, mainly Grasberg underground development, mill and power and El Abra leaching, and $1.6 billion of discretionary growth, mainly Kucing Liar and the Bagdad tailings facility), with 2027 capital expenditures expected to rise to $4.8 billion[8][48]; then distributions to noncontrolling interests and taxes; and then up to 50% of remaining available cash returned to shareholders (the $0.15 quarterly dividend is about $220 million, plus buybacks, $203 million in the first half with $2.8 billion left of the $5.0 billion authorization), with the other half for debt reduction and growth projects[29][49]. The constraint is net debt no higher than $3 billion to $4 billion (excluding the $3.2 billion of PTFI downstream project debt): net debt at June 30 was $2.1 billion, $0.9 billion below the bottom of the target, which is the room for heavier buybacks or a Bagdad decision; there are no large maturities in 2026, PTFI has $0.7 billion and FCX $0.6 billion of notes due in 2027, and PTFI's $1.75 billion revolving credit facility was extended in September to 2031[18][17][50]. The largest cash need not yet included is the Bagdad expansion: preliminary capital of about $4.5 billion, a board decision management hopes to bring in the second half, a three-to-four-year build, and, if approved, spending layered on top of the existing capital program that management says can be funded from operating cash flow[19][51].

Industry and Competitive Position

The company sees favorable long-term copper fundamentals, with demand from electrification, urbanization in developing countries, data centers and artificial intelligence, defense spending and connectivity; on the second-quarter call management said U.S. customers reported strong orders for AI data centers and related energy infrastructure, enough to offset weakness in private construction, that visible inventories in China had fallen to multi-year lows, and that exchange inventories outside the United States were unusually tight[1][52]. Prices already reflect this: LME copper averaged $4.51 per pound in 2025 and $5.93 in the first half of 2026, settled at $6.28 on July 31, and closed at an all-time high of $6.56 on August 6[27][52][53].

Tariffs and pricing benchmarks are the U.S. segment's special variable. COMEX averaged 7% above LME in 2025 because of the 50% Section 232 tariff on semi-finished copper in force since August 2025; refined copper was exempted for now, but the government said it would reassess a refined copper tariff of 15% from 2027 and 30% in 2028, that evaluation remains open, and in July the COMEX premium to LME was about 2%[54][55][52]. The company is the largest U.S. copper supplier, providing about 70% of U.S. refined copper output, and all of its U.S. mine sales are COMEX-priced, so if a tariff creates a COMEX premium the company benefits directly, which is the commercial basis for calling itself "America's Copper Champion"[55][47].

Against peers the company's differentiation rests on three points, and its weaknesses are just as visible. First is Grasberg's high-grade copper-gold resource, which at normal rates produces 1.7 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold a year and is among the lowest-cost copper operations in the world[36]; second is low-cost incremental copper from more than 40 billion pounds contained in U.S. leach stockpiles, at an annual run rate of 240 million pounds at the end of 2025, targeting 300 million by the end of 2026 and 800 million longer term[56][57][58]; third is a set of brownfield expansion options that need no greenfield construction, including doubling Bagdad's concentrator capacity (about $4.5 billion), a large El Abra concentrator (potentially more than 700 million pounds a year), Safford/Lone Star and Kucing Liar at Grasberg (production around 2030, averaging 750 million pounds of copper and 735 thousand ounces of gold a year at full rates)[19][38][59]. On the weak side, the 2025 mud rush showed that geological and operating risk at a single district can erase 30% of production within one quarter[22]; Indonesian mining rights expire in 2041, and the memorandum of understanding signed with the government in February 2026 negotiated an extension to the life of the resource, but the formal license has not been issued[60][61]; and U.S. mine unit costs of about $3 per pound are well above South America's roughly $2.50 and Indonesia's negative cost, and sensitive to diesel, sulfuric acid and other consumables[62][42][32]. This comparison rests only on the company's own disclosures; segment data for peers is not among the citable materials.

Core Debates

One year after the Grasberg mud rush, does the third quarter show the phased ramp-up delivering the “about 65% of capacity in the second half” plan, turning Indonesia back from a $499 million operating-income drag in the second quarter into the company’s largest profit engine?

This debate matters because in a normal year Indonesia contributes close to 60% of operating income ($3.840 billion of $6.518 billion in 2025, or 59%), 98% of the gold and the lowest-cost copper in the world[23][21][36]. In 2026 the company cut full-year copper sales guidance from 3.38 billion pounds to 3.1 billion, raised unit cost guidance from $1.75 to $1.90 and idle costs from $0.9 billion to $1.2 billion, all because of the slower chute modifications disclosed in April[33][34][35][6]. The third quarter is the first full quarter run on the April schedule, and it determines the credibility of the guide for copper sales up about 20% and gold up about 50% in 2027[39].

There is considerable evidence that the ramp is on plan. Block Cave throughput doubled from 34,000 metric tons per day in April to 69,000 in June, the second-quarter average of 53,000 met the internal plan, and the ratio of dry to wet draw points improved during the quarter[11][10][63]; second-quarter copper sales of 710 million pounds beat the April guide of 690 million and unit costs of $1.97 beat the $2.24 guide[4][31][6]; PT Smelting is at full capacity, and in July management reiterated 65% in the second half, 80% by mid-2027 and full capacity by year-end 2027[64][12]. The opposite reading also holds: the April schedule cut came only weeks after the restart and was triggered by newly discovered wet ore, with 45% of 635 draw points wet against 30% in September 2025, half again as many, showing that underground conditions can change the judgment within a single quarter[65][66]; the third quarter still has to complete chute modifications in areas such as CG44, which accounts for 25,000 to 30,000 metric tons a day of ore, and management said plainly that capacity will switch up and down during the work[67]; and third-quarter Indonesian sales will trail production because of smelter inventory deferral[13].

The financial transmission runs like this: the wet-to-dry draw-point ratio and chute-modification progress set daily throughput and capacity utilization, which set Indonesian copper and gold production; production is recognized as refined sales only after processing at PT Smelting and PTFI's smelter (with one to two quarters of inventory deferral), which then sets Indonesian division revenue and gold by-product credits; at the same time, utilization determines how much fixed cost is booked as idle facility costs charged straight to the period, and both ends land together in consolidated operating income and adjusted earnings per share[28][40]. The current numeric baselines are: Block Cave second-quarter average throughput of 53,000 metric tons per day; Indonesian refined copper sales of 153 million pounds in the second quarter (82 million in the first quarter, 235 million in the first half) and gold of 118 thousand ounces (234 thousand in the first half); idle facility and restoration costs of $284 million in the second quarter ($406 million in the first quarter, $690 million in the first half); PTFI unit net cash credit of $0.81 per pound of copper ($0.99 a year earlier, $1.76 for the first half); and PT Smelting at full capacity at quarter end, PTFI's own smelter due to resume receiving concentrate at a reduced rate in the second half, and the IUPK extension application submitted in June with no formal license yet issued[10][32][64][60].

Five things to watch in the third quarter: whether average Block Cave throughput is at least 60,000 metric tons per day and how the September exit rate compares with June's 69,000; whether idle facility and restoration costs land within about $0.3 billion and the $1.2 billion full-year guide holds; whether the gap between Indonesian copper and gold sales and production is explicitly explained as smelter inventory deferral and whether PTFI's own smelter has resumed receiving concentrate; whether the company reiterates 80% by mid-2027, full capacity by year end and the 2027 restart of PB1 South; and whether the IUPK extension license is issued or the government raises conditions beyond the memorandum[63][7][13][67][68]. The observations that would overturn the current understanding are: underground conditions changing again and pushing the schedule out once more, chute modifications and CG44 completion slipping out of 2026, a slower smelter restart that decouples third-quarter sales from production and pushes idle costs above guidance, or an IUPK extension that keeps stalling or worsens in terms and affects long-term investments such as Kucing Liar[66][20]. Both outcomes are possible, and no prediction is made here.

With Grasberg at partial capacity, the U.S. mines have become the company’s largest profit source. Can a 30% higher Morenci mining rate and incremental leach production translate into higher third-quarter copper sales while holding U.S. unit costs within the $2.96-per-pound guidance despite diesel and sulfuric-acid inflation?

The U.S. mines are the highest-cost of the company's three mining businesses (about $3 per pound) but the lowest-taxed, wholly owned and COMEX-priced; their first-half 2026 operating income was 2.4 times the prior-year level and drove the 65% rise in attributable net income[62][47][26][3]. The company builds its plan for U.S. copper production to grow 60% over the coming years and its long-term 800-million-pound-a-year leach target here, and both the roughly $4.5 billion Bagdad expansion and the potential COMEX premium from a Section 232 refined copper tariff magnify the weight of the U.S. segment[14][58][19][55]. The third quarter is the first full quarter to test whether the higher mining rate is sustainable and whether leach increments can accelerate toward the 300-million-pound year-end run rate.

The supporting evidence comes from second-quarter operating data: the Morenci mining rate was 30% above the five-year average, leach ore placement of 885,400 metric tons per day was 43% above the 621,200 of a year earlier, leach copper production was 219 million pounds (203 million a year earlier), equipment availability improved, the fleet began converting to 400-ton ultra-class trucks in the second quarter with more than 20 additional units next year, and U.S. unit costs of $2.94 were below the prior year's $3.04[14][15][16]. The counter-evidence sits in the same data set: mill copper production fell from 183 million to 158 million pounds and recovery from 85.4% to 82.6%, so the higher mining rate has not yet shown up at the mills; the cost decline came entirely from molybdenum credits rising from $0.55 to $0.92 while site costs rose from $3.44 to $3.71; second-quarter leach increments of 47 million pounds were below the first quarter's 54 million, still half the distance from a 300-million-pound run rate; and management acknowledged that at current energy and acid prices the $2.50 U.S. cost target for 2027 is now hard to reach[37][69].

The transmission starts with equipment availability and automation: they set the mining rate at Morenci and the other mines, which sets leach ore placement and mill feed; leach copper (low marginal cost) plus mill copper makes up U.S. copper sales, sold through the rod plants at COMEX prices; volume dilutes fixed costs and the molybdenum by-product credit takes off another layer, yielding U.S. unit net cash costs; and U.S. copper mines operating income, lightly taxed and with no minority holders, converts almost entirely into attributable net income[62][47]. The current baselines are: U.S. copper mines division copper sales of 312 million pounds in the second quarter (308 million a year earlier, 639 million in the first half); leach innovation incremental copper (U.S. and South America combined) of 47 million pounds in the second quarter (54 million in the first quarter, 101 million in the first half, 214 million for all of 2025); leach ore placement of 885,400 metric tons per day; U.S. unit net cash costs of $2.94 per pound ($2.93 for the first half); a realized molybdenum price of $28.75 per pound ($21.10 a year earlier, with the Platts weekly average at $32.61 on July 31); and U.S. copper mines operating income of $834 million ($265 million at Morenci and $569 million at the other U.S. mines)[16][70][37][15][4][53][26].

What to watch in the third quarter: whether U.S. copper sales are at least 345 million pounds and the 1.36-billion-pound full-year guide is reiterated; whether leach increments rise above 55 million pounds and whether the first-generation additive and heating trials produce quantifiable results; whether U.S. site production and delivery costs (before credits) come down from $3.71 per pound or keep leaning on the molybdenum price; whether ore placement and the Morenci mining rate hold at second-quarter levels; and whether the Bagdad expansion is approved by the board in the second half with capital still about $4.5 billion[7][58][16][14][19]. The observations that would overturn the current understanding are: the higher mining rate proving a one-time effect of equipment repairs, with third-quarter placement and sales falling back; leach additive and heating trials underperforming the laboratory and the 300-million-pound year-end run-rate target slipping; further increases in diesel, sulfur and sulfuric-acid prices pushing site costs higher still; or a molybdenum price decline shrinking the by-product credit and pushing unit costs above $2.96[46]. Third-quarter data will point between these two readings, but may not settle the question in one quarter.

Copper set a record high in August, yet the company guides only volumes and costs, not revenue or earnings. Can third-quarter consolidated sales, unit costs and operating cash flow together deliver the $8.3 billion full-year cash-flow plan, and with net debt far below target, fund $4.3 billion of capital spending, the 50% payout and a possible $4.5 billion Bagdad expansion decision at the same time?

The company says it cannot control price and can control only volumes, unit costs, operating cash flow and capital spending, so the check points in the report are the deviations of those four items from guidance[39]. Each $0.10 per pound of copper is worth about $150 million of second-half cash flow, and the second quarter's $6.17 realized price was already above the $6.00 guidance assumption, which means that if third-quarter cash flow still falls short, the cause can only be sales deferral, costs or working capital[8][4]. At the same time, net debt of $2.1 billion is $0.9 billion below the bottom of the $3 billion to $4 billion target, and in July the company said it hoped to make the Bagdad decision in the second half, the first real choice to use balance-sheet headroom in this high-copper-price cycle[17][18][19].

The evidence that the guide can be met is: second-quarter copper sales of 710 million pounds beat the April guide of 690 million, unit costs of $1.97 beat $2.24, provisional pricing adjustments contributed $98 million, and LME copper at $6.28 on July 31 and $6.56 on August 6 was above the $6.00 assumption; after $203 million of first-half buybacks and $107 million spent increasing the Cerro Verde stake, net debt still fell to $2.1 billion[4][31][53][49][17]. The counter-factors are: second-quarter operating cash flow of $2.048 billion included the $0.7 billion one-time insurance recovery, about $1.35 billion without it, while the full-year guide implies about $2.38 billion per quarter in the second half, a jump that depends on Indonesian volumes; working capital used $0.6 billion in the second quarter, and 2026 income taxes are expected at $2.6 billion[8]; Drillr's consensus for the third quarter averages about $7.32 billion of revenue and $0.73 of earnings per share, the revenue average above the second-quarter actual and the EPS average level with the second quarter's adjusted figure, leaving the guide little margin for error[9]; and after the record high on August 6, any pullback in copper works against revenue through provisional pricing adjustments[53][27].

The transmission is: LME/COMEX copper prices and retroactive provisional pricing adjustments set the realized price, and consolidated copper sales times the realized price gives copper revenue; subtracting site costs (affected by energy, consumables and by-product credits) gives operating income; subtracting income taxes (expected at $2.6 billion in 2026) and distributions to noncontrolling interests, and allowing for working capital and the one-time insurance recovery, gives operating cash flow; and after capital expenditures and shareholder returns, what remains is the headroom of net debt against the $3 billion to $4 billion target, which sets the approval of Bagdad, El Abra and Kucing Liar and the pace of buybacks[27][8][18]. The current baselines are: a consolidated realized copper price of $6.17 per pound ($5.78 in the first quarter, $4.54 a year earlier); consolidated copper sales of 710 million pounds (April guide 690 million, 1.016 billion a year earlier); consolidated unit net cash costs of $1.97 (April guide $2.24, $1.91 in the first quarter, $1.13 a year earlier); consolidated operating cash flow of $2.048 billion ($1.495 billion in the first quarter); net debt of $2.1 billion ($2.4 billion at March 31, $2.3 billion at year-end 2025); and a Bagdad technical and economic study completed and updated, with preliminary capital of about $4.5 billion, about 30% above the 2023 estimate of $3.5 billion, economics that hold at $4.00 per pound copper, a three-to-four-year build, and not yet included in capital guidance[4][31][6][8][17][18][19][51].

Six things to check in the third quarter: whether consolidated copper sales are at least 750 million pounds and the 3.1-billion-pound full-year guide holds; whether consolidated unit net cash costs are no higher than $2.00, with the split of cost changes between molybdenum and gold price effects and operating effects; whether operating cash flow is at least $2.3 billion, with explanation of working capital and tax payments; the net debt level at September 30, the third-quarter buyback amount and use of the $2.8 billion remaining authorization; whether the Bagdad expansion is approved with capital still about $4.5 billion and whether 2027 capital guidance rises accordingly; and whether the Section 232 refined copper tariff review concludes and how the COMEX premium to LME moves[5][6][8][49][48][55]. The observations that would overturn the current understanding are: copper falling from the August high, provisional pricing adjustments turning negative and revenue and cash flow coming in below guidance; Indonesian sales deferral and working-capital use pushing third-quarter cash flow below the implied level; Bagdad capital overshooting again or proceeding alongside El Abra, with net debt approaching the top of the target quickly; or the Section 232 refined copper tariff landing in the opposite direction from expectations and the COMEX premium disappearing[53][13][38][47]. All of these are facts that can be checked in a single 10-Q, and the conclusion belongs to the report itself.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is the two-way uncertainty of the Section 232 refined copper tariff. Since August 2025 the United States has imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper, refined copper is exempt for now, the government said it would reassess a refined copper tariff of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028, and that review remains open; a tariff would lift the COMEX premium to LME and directly benefit the entirely COMEX-priced U.S. sales, while no tariff could erase the premium of 7% in 2025 and about 2% in July 2026, and inventory that flowed into the United States in anticipation of a tariff would weigh on COMEX; management said in July that everyone was watching closely and that it had received no clear signal from the government[55][54][52][47]. The exposed line is U.S. copper sales: the 2026 guide is about 1.36 billion pounds, so each $0.10 per pound of COMEX premium to LME is worth about $140 million of annual revenue; the company supplies about 70% of U.S. refined copper output, and a 25% domestic sales requirement applies from 2027, which the company says does not hurt it because of its integrated operations[7][55]. The falsifier is a third-quarter 10-Q showing the COMEX-LME differential holding around 2% with no change to U.S. sales arrangements, or a concluded tariff review that favors U.S. producers.

The second risk is Indonesia's long-term mining rights and government relations. The Grasberg mining rights expire in 2041, the February 2026 memorandum provides for extension to the life of the resource with the company's stake falling from 48.76% to about 37% from 2042, the application was submitted in June, but management admits there is no statutory deadline; the company's history in Indonesia includes repeated reversals on export permits, export duties and dividend terms, and the 2025 mud rush has also created U.S. securities investigation and litigation risk for the company's executives and directors, for which no citable official disclosure exists and which is noted only as a flag[60][20][68][61]. The exposed line is the entire value of the Indonesian division: it contributed 59% of 2025 operating income, 98% of gold and 22% of copper reserves; Kucing Liar has absorbed $1.4 billion and needs about $4.0 billion more through 2033, its value of 750 million pounds of copper and 735 thousand ounces of gold a year at full rates rests on the post-2041 extension, and the company has never reported post-2041 reserves because it holds no post-2041 rights[23][21][59]. The falsifier is the Indonesian government issuing the amended IUPK in 2026 on terms consistent with the memorandum, or the company giving a clear completion timetable in its third-quarter materials with no mention of new conditions.

The third risk is the Grasberg Block Cave ramp slipping behind schedule again. In April the company already cut the second-half PB2/PB3 rate from 100,000 to about 60,000 metric tons per day and its five-year copper outlook by about 9% because of the higher wet-ore share and the chute bottleneck, so the precedent for underground conditions changing the judgment within one quarter already exists[65][66][71]. The exposed lines are Indonesia's 2026 sales guide of 675 million pounds of copper and 650 thousand ounces of gold and the $1.2 billion of full-year idle costs; in a normal year Indonesia contributes about 60% of operating income, and the 2027 guide for copper sales up about 20% and gold up about 50% depends almost entirely on Grasberg[7][12][23]. The falsifier is third-quarter throughput of at least 60,000 metric tons per day, idle costs no higher than $0.3 billion and a reiterated schedule.

The fourth risk is energy and consumables inflation swallowing the operating improvements. Diesel, sulfur and sulfuric-acid prices have surged since the Middle East conflict began in late February 2026, management estimated the March diesel increase at about $500 million of annualized cost, second-quarter U.S. site costs rose from $3.44 to $3.71 per pound, and the improvement in cost guidance relies entirely on molybdenum credits[44][45][16]. The exposed line is site costs: energy is about 15% of mine site operating costs (about 275 million gallons of diesel bought in 2025, expected to rise to 17% in 2026), each $0.10 of higher U.S. unit cost on 1.36 billion pounds of annual sales is worth about $140 million, and management has said the $2.50 U.S. cost target for 2027 is hard to reach in the current market[43][7][62][46]. The falsifier is third-quarter U.S. site production and delivery costs falling below $3.60 per pound with unit net cash costs no higher than $2.96.

The fifth risk is expanding growth capital and shareholder returns at the same time in a high-copper-price environment and using up the balance-sheet headroom quickly. Bagdad's preliminary capital of about $4.5 billion is still under review, 2027 capital guidance has already risen to $4.8 billion, El Abra (potentially more than 700 million pounds a year) and Safford are queued behind it, and management admits the historical lesson is doing too many projects at once[19][51][48][38]. The exposed lines are net debt and buybacks: net debt of $2.1 billion leaves only $0.9 billion to $1.9 billion of room against the $3 billion to $4 billion target, $2.8 billion remains of the $5 billion buyback authorization, $1.3 billion of notes mature in 2027, and each $0.10 per pound decline in copper removes about $150 million of second-half cash flow[17][18][49][8]. The falsifier is the company, when approving Bagdad, laying out the year-by-year capital profile with net debt still inside the target and buybacks not suspended, or making explicit that El Abra and Bagdad are sequenced rather than parallel.

What to Watch Next

• Grasberg ramp: Block Cave quarterly average throughput (baseline 53,000 metric tons per day in the second quarter, 69,000 in June), watching the third-quarter average and the September exit rate; at least 60,000 with the schedule reiterated confirms, another schedule cut falsifies. PTFI idle facility and restoration costs (baseline $284 million in the second quarter, about $0.3 billion guided for the third), watching whether they land inside guidance and the $1.2 billion full-year figure holds; well above $0.3 billion with a full-year increase falsifies. Indonesian refined copper and gold sales and smelter status (baseline 153 million pounds and 118 thousand ounces; PT Smelting at capacity, PTFI's smelter awaiting restart), watching whether the production-sales gap is explained as inventory deferral and whether the own smelter resumes receiving concentrate; a clear deferral explanation with the smelter restarted confirms, a decoupling without explanation falsifies. The IUPK extension (baseline application submitted in June, license not issued), watching whether the license is issued or new conditions appear; terms consistent with the memorandum confirm, added conditions falsify.
• U.S. mines: U.S. copper mines division copper sales (baseline 312 million pounds in the second quarter, 1.36 billion full-year guide), watching for at least 345 million pounds and a reiterated full-year guide; below that level with a full-year cut falsifies. Leach incremental copper (baseline 47 million pounds, targeting a 300-million-pound run rate by year end), watching for more than 55 million pounds and quantified additive and heating trials; a slipped run-rate target falsifies. U.S. unit net cash costs and site costs (baseline $2.94 per pound, site costs $3.71, molybdenum credit $0.92), watching whether site costs fall and whether the credit still depends on the molybdenum price; site costs below $3.60 with unit costs no higher than $2.96 confirms, unit costs above $2.96 falsify.
• Copper price and cash flow: consolidated copper sales and unit costs (baseline 710 million pounds and $1.97 in the second quarter; third-quarter guide 750 million and $2.00), watching whether guidance is met and how cost changes split between price and operations; sales of at least 750 million pounds with costs no higher than $2.00 confirms. Operating cash flow and net debt (baseline $2.048 billion including the $0.7 billion insurance recovery; net debt $2.1 billion), watching for cash flow of at least $2.3 billion plus net debt and the buyback amount; cash flow well below $2.3 billion for reasons beyond working capital falsifies. The Bagdad decision and the Section 232 tariff (baseline preliminary capital about $4.5 billion, not in guidance; tariff review open), watching for approval, any capital change, a 2027 guidance increase and a tariff conclusion; approval with a year-by-year profile and net debt inside the target confirms, another capital overshoot or a parallel El Abra build falsifies.

Conclusion

Freeport-McMoRan's business reduces to three metals' volumes times prices it cannot control, less largely fixed site costs, income taxes in high-rate jurisdictions and distributions to minority holders in Indonesia and Peru. In the second quarter of 2026 that equation produced revenue of $7.029 billion, attributable net income of $984 million and operating cash flow of $2.048 billion (including the $0.7 billion insurance recovery), with net debt of $2.1 billion at June 30, $0.9 billion below the bottom of the $3 billion to $4 billion target[3][8][17]. The central unresolved relationship right now is this: Indonesia contributed only $499 million of operating income in the second quarter while the U.S. mines took over at $834 million, and the question is whether third-quarter Block Cave throughput, idle costs and Indonesian refined sales can show that the "about 65% of capacity in the second half" schedule holds, and in turn support the 2027 volume guide and capital decisions such as Bagdad[26][12][19].

The two independent commentaries published after the results look at that relationship from different angles. The Zacks Equity Research note of July 24 recorded that second-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share and revenue of $7.03 billion both exceeded the Zacks consensus ($0.62 and $6.47 billion), restated the schedule of Block Cave throughput rising from 34,000 metric tons per day in April to 69,000 in June, 65% in the second half, 80% by mid-2027 and full capacity by year end, and relayed that second-half copper sales should exceed the first half by more than 20% and gold by more than 65%, that unit cost guidance had eased to about $1.90, and that preliminary Bagdad capital of about $4.5 billion was roughly 30% above the 2023 estimate; it shows that the market accepted the company's ramp and cost guidance after the results, but it is a restatement of the results rather than an independent test and passes no judgment on the credibility of the schedule[72]. David Moadel of 24/7 Wall St., on September 7, pointed out that Freeport, Southern Copper and Teck had all risen within a narrow 44%-45% band for the year, the signature of a commodity move rather than company execution; he cited the company's own sensitivity (each $0.10 of copper worth about $390 million of annual EBITDA, about $13 billion at $5 copper and about $20 billion at $7) to argue that the copper price determines the share price path more than any Grasberg progress, and said further upside likely requires copper closer to the $7 case, a smoother Grasberg ramp and continued unit cost discipline, with the company's internal levers being the remaining $2.8 billion of buybacks and the leach targets of 300 million pounds by year end and 800 million by 2030[73]. Both pieces accept the company's ramp schedule and cost guidance and differ on the interpretive frame: Zacks treats the third quarter as a test of execution, while Moadel warns that third-quarter operating improvement may be masked in the share price by copper volatility, which is consistent with the treatment above of copper price as an external driver and volumes and costs as the variables the company controls[72][73]. Both are outside interpretations, not facts, and they do not constitute a majority view.

The combination of observations that would materially strengthen the current understanding is: third-quarter average Block Cave throughput of at least 60,000 metric tons per day, idle costs no higher than $0.3 billion and a reiterated schedule; U.S. copper sales of at least 345 million pounds, leach increments above 55 million pounds and site costs coming down from $3.71; and consolidated copper sales of at least 750 million pounds, unit costs no higher than $2.00, operating cash flow of at least $2.3 billion and net debt still inside the target. The combination that would materially weaken it is: throughput below 60,000 metric tons per day or another schedule slip, with idle costs well above $0.3 billion; U.S. site costs still rising while the molybdenum credit shrinks and unit costs exceed $2.96; and third-quarter cash flow well below the implied level for reasons beyond working capital, with Bagdad approved but no year-by-year capital profile disclosed[12][7][16][6][8][19]. Each of these items has a corresponding table in the October 22 release and the 10-Q that follows, and each can be checked line by line[2].

Sources

[1] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · business overview and copper market view · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[2] Drillr earnings calendar · FCX earnings call scheduled 2026-10-22 (calendar last updated 2026-09-21); FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 dates the prior release and call to the fourth Thursday after quarter end, consistent with an October 22, 2026 report. No company notice for the third-quarter 2026 date had been published on investors.fcx.com as of 2026-09-22. · 2026-09-21 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2Q26 results highlights and adjusted net income · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[4] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2Q26 summary financial and operating data · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[5] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2026 sales guidance including third-quarter 2026 and smelter inventory deferral · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[6] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2Q26 unit net cash costs, idle costs and 2026 cost guidance · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[7] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · 2026 outlook: regional sales, unit costs, idle costs, cash flow and capital expenditures · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[8] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2Q26 operating cash flow, capital expenditures and 2026 cash flow guidance · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[9] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-09-21) · 3Q26 revenue and EPS estimates · 2026-09-21 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · Indonesia 2Q26 ore milled, grades and recoveries · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[11] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · Grasberg Block Cave daily rates and second-half plan · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[12] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up status and capacity targets · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[13] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · third-quarter production above sales as smelter inventory builds · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[14] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · Morenci mining rate and U.S. production outlook · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[15] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · U.S. copper mines 2Q26 100% operating data and 2026 sales guidance · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[16] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · U.S. copper mines 2Q26 operating data and 2026 cost guidance · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[17] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2Q26 cash, debt, maturities and credit facilities · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[18] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · financial policy, net debt target and year-end 2025 net debt · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[19] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · Bagdad expansion capital estimate and decision timing · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[20] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · Kucing Liar capital and MOU ownership terms · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[21] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · reserves and 2025 production mix by region · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[22] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · Grasberg mud rush incident, restart plan and insurance · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[23] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · FY2025 operating income by division · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[24] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · FY2025 consolidated operating data and revenues · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[25] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · 2025 revenue mix, largest customer and copper product forms · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[26] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2Q26 revenues and operating income by division · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[27] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · 2025 realized prices and provisional pricing mechanics · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[28] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · PTFI refined-sales recognition and production-sales variability · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[29] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · financial policy, June 2026 dividend and share repurchases · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[30] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · 2025 production and delivery costs and mud rush charges · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[31] FCX 8-K filed 2026-04-23 · 1Q26 results and revised 2026 sales estimates · 2026-04-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000021/a1q2026exhibit991.htm

[32] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · Indonesia 2Q26 operating data, unit net cash credits and idle facility costs · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[33] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · 2026 outlook: projected sales volumes and second-half weighting · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[34] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · 2026 outlook: unit net cash costs, idle costs, operating cash flow and capital expenditures · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[35] FCX 8-K filed 2026-04-23 · PTFI 2026 sales estimate cut for ore-loading modifications · 2026-04-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000021/a1q2026exhibit991.htm

[36] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · PTFI normal operating rates and 2025 Indonesia production · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[37] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · leach initiative 2Q26 production and year-end 2026 run-rate target · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[38] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · South America 2Q26 operating data and El Abra expansion · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[39] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · three-year sales outlook, 2026 unit cost estimate and price sensitivities · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[40] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · Indonesia unit net cash credits and idle cost accounting · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[41] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · PTFI 2026 sales estimate and unit net cash credit guidance · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[42] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · South America 2Q26 unit costs and 2026 guidance · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[43] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · energy and consumables share of site operating costs · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[44] FCX 8-K filed 2026-04-23 · 1Q26 unit costs, Middle East cost pressures and 2026 cost estimate · 2026-04-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000021/a1q2026exhibit991.htm

[45] FCX 1Q26 earnings call 2026-04-23 · diesel cost sensitivity and 2026 unit cost revision · 2026-04-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[46] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · diesel, sulfur and acid assumptions in the cost outlook · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[47] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · Section 232 status, COMEX-priced U.S. sales and NOLs · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[48] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · 2026-2027 capital expenditure forecast and discretionary projects · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[49] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · liquidity and share repurchases through July 2026 · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[50] FCX 8-K filed 2026-09-08 · PTFI revolving credit facility extended to September 2031 · 2026-09-08 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000038/fcx-20260901.htm

[51] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · Bagdad capital estimate and incentive price · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[52] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · copper market backdrop and COMEX premium · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[53] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · copper, gold and molybdenum prices through early August 2026 · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[54] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · copper pricing benchmarks and 2025 COMEX-LME differential · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[55] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · Section 232 tariffs and U.S. refined copper market position · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[56] FCX 1Q26 earnings call 2026-04-23 · copper contained in leach stockpiles · 2026-04-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[57] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · leach innovation run rate at end of 2025 and 2026 target · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[58] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · leach run rate today and year-end target · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[59] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · Kucing Liar expansion design and capital · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[60] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · IUPK extension MOU terms and June 2026 application · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[61] FCX 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · long-term mining rights beyond 2041 · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000012/fcx-20251231.htm

[62] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · U.S. unit cost path, leach economics and NOLs · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[63] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · second-half rate guidance and material handling upgrades · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[64] FCX 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · PTFI downstream processing restart in second-half 2026 · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/a2q2026exhibit991.htm

[65] FCX 1Q26 earnings call 2026-04-23 · wet draw points and chute bottleneck · 2026-04-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[66] FCX 1Q26 earnings call 2026-04-23 · revised ramp-up rates and five-year Grasberg forecast · 2026-04-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[67] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · CG44 chute gallery upgrade and PB1 South preparation · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[68] FCX 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-23 · IUPK extension process and timing · 2026-07-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[69] FCX 8-K filed 2026-04-23 · 1Q26 leach incremental production and 2025 total · 2026-04-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000021/a1q2026exhibit991.htm

[70] FCX 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 · U.S. copper mines 2026 sales guidance · 2026-08-06 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm

[71] FCX 1Q26 earnings call 2026-04-23 · five-year Grasberg district volume revision · 2026-04-23 · earnings call · https://investors.fcx.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

[72] Zacks Equity Research 2026-07-24 · FCX Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Grasberg Ramp and U.S. Growth · 2026-07-24 · Zacks Equity Research · https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fcx-q2-earnings-call-highlights-140000464.html

[73] 24/7 Wall St. 2026-09-07 · Freeport-McMoRan Has Ripped 44% in 2026. What Would It Take to Get FCX Stock Up to $100? · 2026-09-07 · 24/7 Wall St. · https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/07/freeport-mcmoran-has-ripped-44-in-2026-what-would-it-take-to-get-fcx-stock-up-to-100/