Takeda (TAK) FY2026 H1: Core Profit Holds, Immunoglobulin Still Weak

Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) reported fiscal 2026 first-half results (April to September 2026) on October 29, 2026, through 6-K filings and an earnings call. Core profit ran ahead of the full-year guidance pace, while plasma-derived therapies were weak [1][2]. Earlier research focused on three questions: whether savings could absorb generic erosion and launch spending, whether the dip in immunoglobulin sales was only shipment phasing, and whether ENTYVIO could withstand U.S. pricing pressure. In this half, core operating profit grew slightly, and the raised full-year guidance mainly reflects foreign exchange [1][2]. Immunoglobulin sales still have not returned to growth after six months, so the phasing explanation is no longer sufficient. ENTYVIO growth slowed to 2.7%, U.S. sales recovered somewhat and the result stayed within the earlier expected range, and Takeda has filed patent suits in the U.S. and Canada against proposed biosimilars [1][3]. Overall, cost discipline is holding profit, and growth depends on three new medicines delivering.

Takeda is Japan's largest pharmaceutical company. Its fiscal year ends March 31, and it sells prescription medicines in six areas: gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines and neuroscience [4]. The U.S. accounted for about 47% of first-half revenue, and revenue depends on patient volume and net price after rebates [1].

Progress: savings largely offset launch spending, and guidance rose

Takeda's first-half core operating profit was roughly flat to slightly up, ahead of the full-year guidance the company gave at the start of the year for a 5% to 8% decline. Core revenue was JPY 2,407.0 billion, down 1.0% at constant exchange rates (CER). Core operating profit was JPY 710.6 billion, up 0.7% at CER, with a 29.5% margin [1][5]. Core R&D and core SG&A expenses rose only 2.1% and 0.2% at CER, respectively [1]. The CFO said transformation savings funded launch preparation and R&D for the three new medicines. Procurement initiatives have produced about JPY 30 billion of annualized savings, and the full-year gross savings target is JPY 100 billion [2].

The company changed its full-year core operating profit guidance to a mid-single-digit percentage decline at CER and raised its actual-rate forecast from JPY 1,160.0 billion to JPY 1,190.0 billion [1]. Management said the increase reflects transaction FX benefits and that, excluding FX, the underlying business is in line with initial expectations [2]. Based on that forecast, second-half core operating profit would be about JPY 479.4 billion, roughly 10% below the prior-year period, because R&D and launch costs are concentrated in the second half [5]. TRINTELLIX grew 15.6% in the first half on a U.S. price increase, but its U.S. exclusivity ends in December 2026 [1][6].

New launches have started, while cash flow was held back by one-off items. MIMRYLO launched in the U.S. at the end of August, with no quantitative metrics yet. ORZEYFUL launched in Japan and China on October 15, and the company expects a U.S. launch in early November after controlled-substance scheduling is complete [2]. First-half adjusted free cash flow was JPY 325.7 billion, down 38% year on year. The company attributed the decline to a smaller receivables factoring program and a payment to Protagonist for its opt-out from MIMRYLO co-commercialization, and it raised its full-year forecast to JPY 700.0 to 800.0 billion [5][2][1].

Change: immunoglobulin sales still have not returned to growth

Immunoglobulin sales were still declining in the first half, so shipment phasing no longer explains the weakness on its own. First-half revenue was JPY 423.8 billion, down 0.3% at CER, compared with a 0.6% decline in the first quarter, and the second quarter showed no rebound [1]. Subcutaneous products CUVITRU and HYQVIA grew 17%. The head of plasma-derived therapies said intravenous products declined year on year because of phasing as well as market and price dynamics, that supply and demand are shifting, and that the company is balancing revenue against margin [2]. Albumin fell 6.9% at CER, and the company lowered its full-year albumin forecast [1][2].

So far the shortfall is hitting revenue, and gross margin has not yet been hurt. Immunoglobulin made up about 17.6% of first-half core revenue. Core gross margin was 66.8%, up from 65.5% a year earlier, which the company attributed to product mix without breaking out each product's contribution [5][1]. Group inventories rose from JPY 1,396.6 billion at the end of March to JPY 1,441.1 billion at the end of September. That figure includes other products and FX effects, so it only indicates that output has not fully converted into sales [1]. Management kept its full-year immunoglobulin outlook and expects a second-half rebound driven by large U.S. contracts, but it did not disclose the size or pricing of those contracts [2].

Conclusion

Cost discipline held Takeda's first-half profit, but the growth engine did not improve: core revenue still fell 1%, and new launches were only 4% of core revenue [1]. The roughly 10% second-half profit decline is within the company's own plan, and if immunoglobulin trades price for volume, gross margin would face an added pressure. The lower cash flow came mainly from working capital and a one-off payment. The nine-month report will test whether immunoglobulin returns to growth, whether ENTYVIO growth stays above 2%, and whether the two new medicines begin to disclose patient numbers and payer coverage.

Sources

[1] TAK 6-K filed 2026-10-29 · FY2026 H1 financial results (form6k-1),2026-10-29,Takeda 6-K,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1395064/000139506426000343/form6k-1_102926.htm

[2] TAK FY2026 Q2 earnings call 2026-10-29 · transcript,2026-10-29,Takeda earnings-call,drillr://earning_call_summary/TAK/2026-10-29

[3] TAK 6-K filed 2026-10-29 · FY2026 H1 interim report and financial statements (form6k-2),2026-10-29,Takeda 6-K,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1395064/000139506426000345/form6k-2_102926.htm

[4] TAK 20-F filed 2026-06-17 · business overview and key business areas,2026-06-17,Takeda 20-F,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1395064/000139506426000177/tak-20260331.htm

[5] TAK 6-K filed 2026-10-29 · Financial Appendix FY2026 H1 (exhibit 99.1),2026-10-29,Takeda 6-K,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1395064/000139506426000343/exhibit991_102926.htm

[6] TAK 20-F filed 2026-06-17 · VYVANSE generic erosion and TRINTELLIX exclusivity,2026-06-17,Takeda 20-F,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1395064/000139506426000177/tak-20260331.htm