Cross-Border Parcel Delivery Shifts Toward Local Fulfillment

From October 26 to 29, 2026, PostNL (PSTNY) and Europris (ERPSY) said in earnings-call materials that EU duties on non-EU imports, effective in July, reduced Asian cross-border parcel volume and hurt online sales and profitability outside Norway.[1][2]

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Fixed import costs change how low-value goods are fulfilled

Cross-border e-commerce traditionally allowed merchants to ship each order from an Asian warehouse, clear it in Europe, and hand it to a local postal or parcel carrier for final delivery. For low-priced goods, merchants relied on high volumes of separate orders to support conversion, while carriers earned revenue from international import parcels and last-mile delivery.

The new EU charge represents a larger share of a low-value shopping basket, reducing the price advantage of cheap products first. Merchants can add the cost to prices, bundle goods into larger orders, or reduce their lowest-priced assortment. If they keep shipping individual orders, both conversion and margins may suffer. PostNL said Asian platforms are changing their assortments and logistics, including a move from direct-to-consumer imports toward bulk imports, European warehouses, and local fulfillment.[1]

What we see in reality with what is happening at those Asian platforms is that they are all trying to adapt their business models to this new reality. You actually see that in different flavors. You see platforms, on the one hand, trying to, let's say, swallow those fees on a larger basket size, that they try to bundle that more. You also see platforms shifting their focus to the a bit more higher-end products and moving away from the, let's say, real cheap products, as those fees have a relatively high proportion on those cheap products. We also see platforms fully, I would say, reshaping their business models by rethinking or reassessing their commercial propositions and logistic processes towards really moving from B2C to B2B, with warehouses in Europe.

This shift moves the operational control point from inbound small-parcel clearance to European inventory and fulfillment. Platforms import goods in bulk, then pick and pack them locally, turning later deliveries into domestic European e-commerce parcels. Postal companies that handled international small parcels may lose inbound volume. Whether they recover it through domestic delivery depends on which warehouses and last-mile networks the platforms choose.

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Parcel volume and merchant profitability show the same pressure

PostNL reported that international volumes, mainly from Asian webshops, fell nearly 32%, primarily because of the customs rules introduced in July. In its Platforms segment, Asian webshop volumes fell nearly 50% during the quarter.[1] The measures cover different business scopes and cannot be added, but both indicate that the low-value direct-shipping model contracted quickly after implementation.

Europris provides evidence from the merchant side. It said the new duties hurt online sales and profitability outside Norway and that it implemented changes to pricing and freight terms.[2] The effect therefore extends beyond carrier volume into merchant pricing and profit allocation. The frozen material does not quantify Europris's sales or profit decline.

PostNL also said European e-commerce growth and higher parcel pricing offset part of the decline. It expects activity to recover, but the timing remains uncertain.[1] The evidence supports a drop in direct-shipped parcels and a restructuring of fulfillment. It does not establish that postal-company profit will fall in the same proportion.

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Value can move toward inventory and domestic delivery

Local stocking can create more demand for European warehouses, sorting, and domestic last-mile delivery, but the material does not establish which companies have already captured a measurable benefit. DHL Group (DHLGY) said the change had a significant effect on its consumer-facing postal business but only a small overall group effect, and the impact was less pronounced than expected.[3] Scale, customer mix, and domestic operations can therefore absorb part of the disruption.

The clearest follow-up measures are Asian import parcel volumes, the share of platform inventory held in Europe, and whether postal operators replace lost international parcels with domestic deliveries. If platforms only raise prices or reduce low-value products without expanding local fulfillment, the potential warehouse and last-mile demand will not automatically materialize.

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Company exposed to the fulfillment shift

• PDD Holdings (PDD): The company said EU charges increased cross-border order costs and reduced efficiency, prompting investment in local merchants, warehouses, and fulfillment. It is exposed to the same shift from direct Asian shipping to European supply, but the evidence does not show that its new network is mature or has improved profitability.[4]

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Sources

[1] Drillr · PostNL · 2026-10-26 · Q3 2026 trading update call

[2] Drillr · Europris · 2026-10-29 · Q3 2026 earnings call summary

[3] Drillr · DHL Group · 2026-08-05 · Q2 2026 earnings call

[4] Drillr · PDD Holdings · 2026-08-24 · Q2 2026 earnings call

This article highlights potentially overlooked industry changes and companies. It is not a stock recommendation.