[TEVA] Teva: Q3 2026 Earnings Test AUSTEDO Destocking Before Medicare Price Cap

Teva is a drugmaker built on generics that is shifting its center of gravity toward its own branded medicines, led by AUSTEDO, AJOVY and UZEDY[1]. It is scheduled to report Q3 2026 (three months ended September 30, 2026) results on 2026-11-03[2]. In the latest disclosed quarter, Q2 2026, revenue was $4.142 billion, down 1% in US dollars and 3% in local currency; $726 million of expenses tied to the Emalex acquisition produced a GAAP loss of $0.49 per share and non-GAAP EPS of only $0.02, while free cash flow still reached $622 million[3]. Teva does not give quarterly guidance. On July 29 it maintained its full-year outlook for revenue of $16.5 billion to $16.85 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $1.91 to $2.11 and free cash flow of $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion, and raised its AUSTEDO full-year revenue outlook to $2.45 billion to $2.6 billion[3]. Seven analysts tracked by Drillr expect third-quarter revenue of $4.238 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.72 on average[4], and the earnings calendar carries a revenue estimate of $4.246 billion[2].

Three things matter most in Teva's Q3 2026 earnings. First, whether quarterly AUSTEDO revenue lands inside the range implied by full-year guidance: management said only part of the wholesaler destocking happened in the first half, with the rest due in the second half, and it has already flagged a year-over-year decline in the fourth quarter[5]. If third-quarter revenue falls well below the quarterly average range of about $588 million to $663 million[6], investors will need to separate an inventory effect from a demand problem. Second, whether US generics revenue stops falling: it was $660 million in the second quarter, down 31%[7], and management said US generics grew 1% excluding lenalidomide[5], a claim the third quarter will test against a shrinking prescription share. Third, whether free cash flow keeps pace with the full-year plan: first-half free cash flow totaled $810 million[8][3], leaving $1.19 billion to reach the $2.0 billion low end of guidance, while the roughly $4.9 billion equivalent refinancing in September will also reshape the debt and interest profile[9].

Company Background and Business Structure

Teva runs three regional operating segments, the United States, Europe and International Markets, and each segment manages the full product portfolio in its region, including generics (with biosimilars and over-the-counter products) and innovative medicines[1]. Outside the segments, other activities consist mainly of selling active pharmaceutical ingredients to third parties, contract manufacturing and an out-licensing platform run through its affiliate Medis[1]. The company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange[9]. Under its Pivot to Growth strategy, it moved its US distribution business Anda out of the US segment and into other activities from January 1, 2026[10].

The US segment is Teva's profit engine. In 2025 the United States, Europe and International Markets segments generated revenue of $9.186 billion, $5.040 billion and $2.162 billion and segment profit of $3.356 billion, $1.303 billion and $336 million[11], so the US alone delivered about two-thirds of combined segment profit. Recast to exclude Anda, US segment revenue in 2025 was $7.690 billion, up 18%, driven mainly by AUSTEDO, AJOVY and UZEDY and by milestone payments tied to the start of Phase 3 studies for duvakitug[10].

The US product mix shows the transition the company is going through. In 2025 US generics (including biosimilars) brought in $3.657 billion, AUSTEDO $2.217 billion, AJOVY $295 million, UZEDY $191 million and COPAXONE $255 million, while Anda distribution contributed $1.496 billion[12]. By the first half of 2026, US segment revenue was $3.236 billion, down 3%; AUSTEDO (including the extended-release AUSTEDO XR) contributed $1.236 billion, up 39%, and generics $1.272 billion, down 30%[6], so the two product lines are now close to the same size.

Europe and International Markets still rely mainly on generics and depend far less on branded drugs. In the first half of 2026, Europe segment revenue was $2.603 billion, up 4%, including $2.113 billion of generics; International Markets revenue was $1.074 billion, including $805 million of generics, down 8%[6]. Other activities generated $627 million of revenue in the second quarter, of which $413 million came from distribution[13]. On June 10, 2026, Teva also completed the acquisition of Emalex for about $700 million, gaining ecopipam, which has completed Phase 3 in pediatric Tourette syndrome[14].

Financial History and Current Position

Teva's annual revenue and gross profit have grown for three straight years, but goodwill impairments and legal settlements have repeatedly dragged down earnings. Revenue rose from $15.846 billion in 2023 to $16.544 billion in 2024 and $17.258 billion in 2025, and gross profit rose from $7.645 billion to $8.064 billion and $8.938 billion[15]. In 2023 and 2024 the company recorded goodwill impairments of $700 million and $1.280 billion and legal settlements and loss contingencies of $1.043 billion and $761 million, leaving a 2024 operating loss of $303 million and a net loss of $1.959 billion; in 2025 there was no goodwill impairment, legal settlements fell to $467 million, and operating income recovered to $2.157 billion with net income of $1.418 billion[15].

Cash flow and debt both improved in 2025, but free cash flow leans heavily on receivables securitization. Operating cash flow was $1.649 billion, up from $1.247 billion in 2024; company-defined free cash flow was $2.396 billion, which included $1.214 billion of beneficial interest collected under the EU receivables securitization program and $34 million of divestiture proceeds, net of $501 million of capital investment[16]. Debt at the end of 2025 was $16.807 billion, down from $17.783 billion a year earlier, with 57% denominated in US dollars and the rest in euros[16]; net financial expenses for the year were $934 million[15].

Reported revenue was roughly flat across the first two quarters of 2026, but a one-time acquisition charge interrupted profits. First-quarter revenue was $3.982 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $0.53[2], and the United States, Europe and International Markets segments generated $1.534 billion, $1.340 billion and $524 million[17]; operating cash flow was an outflow of $40 million, and free cash flow of $188 million rested mainly on $354 million of securitization proceeds[8]. Second-quarter revenue was $4.142 billion, with $1.702 billion from the US, $1.263 billion from Europe and $550 million from International Markets, and Emalex-related R&D pushed the US segment to a $76 million loss and the consolidated business to a $231 million operating loss[13]. In the same quarter, operating cash flow was $411 million, non-GAAP gross margin was 55.4% versus 54.6% a year earlier, and Fitch raised the company's corporate credit grade to investment grade BBB-[3].

The full-year 2026 outlook that Teva maintained spells out how much work the second half has to do. Guidance calls for revenue of $16.5 billion to $16.85 billion, non-GAAP operating income of $3.8 billion to $4.0 billion (including about $0.77 billion of Emalex expenses), adjusted EBITDA of $4.23 billion to $4.53 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $1.91 to $2.11, free cash flow of $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion and about $0.5 billion of capital expenditure[3]; management also kept its non-GAAP gross margin outlook at 54.5% to 55.5% and said non-GAAP operating expenses would land at the high end of the 27% to 28% of revenue range[5]. Based on first-half actuals, second-half revenue needs to reach $8.376 billion to $8.726 billion, non-GAAP EPS $1.36 to $1.56 and free cash flow $1.19 billion to $1.59 billion[2][3]. Management has also set 2027 targets: mid-single-digit total revenue growth, a 30% non-GAAP operating margin, net debt to EBITDA below 2x and 80% cash conversion of earnings[5].

Operating Model

Teva's revenue is the sum of generics, innovative medicines and other activities across its three segments, and innovative-medicine revenue is shaped by prescription volume, unit net price and wholesaler inventory at the same time. AUSTEDO's US revenue grew 37% in the second quarter, which the company attributed to volume growth and a favorable business mix including improved net-price realization[7]; AJOVY's US growth came mainly from a reduction in sales allowances[8][7]. Because revenue is recognized net of allowances when product ships into wholesale channels, changes in wholesaler inventory and allowances move reported revenue in the same quarter. Generics revenue depends on the number and pricing of products on the market and is affected by how quickly competitors win approvals and how quickly Teva launches new products[18].

On the profit side the key variable is product mix, because branded drugs carry far higher gross margins than generics. US segment gross margin rose to 70.7% in the second quarter from 67.8% a year earlier[7]; on 2025 segment data, cost of sales equaled about 39% of revenue in the US, about 45% in Europe and about 52% in International Markets[11]. Operating income also absorbs legal settlements, amortization and impairments that sit outside segment profit, and legal settlements and loss contingencies were $230 million in the second quarter[13]. The non-GAAP measure keeps acquired R&D such as Emalex, so full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance already includes a $0.66 negative Emalex impact[3]. Management said operating margins should improve sequentially in the second half on cost savings, while fourth-quarter gross margin would dip slightly because of AUSTEDO revenue dynamics[5].

The path to cash is longer: operating profit first pays interest, settlements and taxes, then securitization proceeds are added back before it becomes company-defined free cash flow. Teva defines free cash flow as operating cash flow plus beneficial interest collected under the EU securitization program and divestiture proceeds, minus capital investment[16]. Net financial expenses were $440 million in the first half of 2026[13], and the annual report lists $378 million of opioid settlement payments for 2026[19]; in the first quarter operating cash flow was negative while free cash flow was positive[8], which shows how much securitization proceeds weigh in the quarterly pattern. Free cash flow funds debt repayment and acquisitions, and the board has also instructed management to plan a share repurchase program subject to legal requirements[20].

Industry and Competitive Position

Teva remains a large supplier in the US generics market, but its share of prescriptions is shrinking. Competition in US generics comes from domestic and international generic manufacturers and from brand-name companies through next-generation medicines and authorized generics, and a rise in FDA approvals for existing generic products is intensifying competition on Teva's base generics[18]. According to IQVIA data, Teva had about 237 million prescriptions over the trailing twelve months through the second quarter of 2026, or 6.1% of US generic prescriptions, compared with about 266 million and 6.9% a year earlier[7]; the share was 6.3% in the first quarter[8]. The annual report warns that if Teva cannot launch new products on time, it may not be able to offset price erosion on existing US products[18].

Teva's position is stronger in biosimilars and in several branded drugs than in base generics. The biosimilar portfolio has 15 products on the market and 14 in the pipeline, and the company targets more than $800 million of biosimilar revenue by 2027[5]. AJOVY held a 32.5% exit share of US prescriptions in the subcutaneous injectable anti-CGRP class at the end of the second quarter, up from 31.0% a year earlier[7]. AUSTEDO is protected in the US by 14 Orange Book patents expiring between 2031 and 2038, and in 2022 Teva agreed with Lupin and Aurobindo that their generic versions may launch in April 2033, or earlier under certain circumstances[21].

The available disclosures put clear limits on any competitive comparison. Teva does not report revenue or share for AUSTEDO's competitors in its therapeutic area, and AJOVY's share covers only the subcutaneous anti-CGRP class[7], so neither figure shows how the two drugs compete on a broader basis. Europe and International Markets generics also lack separate competitive data, and the company only guides global generics as a whole: excluding generic Revlimid and the divested Japan business, 2026 revenue is expected to be flat to down low single digits in local currency[5].

Core Debates

Will pre-IRA wholesaler destocking push AUSTEDO third-quarter revenue below the range implied by full-year guidance?

AUSTEDO is Teva's largest single product, and its revenue rhythm decides whether full-year innovative-medicine guidance and gross margin are delivered. The drug generated $2.217 billion of US revenue in 2025[12], and its $676 million of US revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was about 40% of the US segment's $1.702 billion, while US segment gross margin rose to 70.7%[7]. Any quarterly swing in AUSTEDO shows up in both US segment revenue and consolidated gross margin.

Current evidence shows demand still growing, but second-half reported revenue will be distorted by wholesaler destocking. AUSTEDO's global revenue was $696 million in the second quarter, up 40% in local currency[3], and US revenue rose 37%, which the company attributed to volume and better net pricing[7]; on the earnings call management cited 14% growth in total prescriptions, 21% growth in milligrams and more than 60% of new patients starting on AUSTEDO XR[5]. Teva raised full-year guidance to $2.45 billion to $2.6 billion[3], but also said only part of the destocking happened in the first half, with the rest due in the second half, and that fourth-quarter revenue should fall year over year because purchasing patterns are changing ahead of IRA implementation in January 2027[5]; on the first-quarter call it had already pointed to a destocking impact in the second and third quarters[20]. The annual report shows that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced AUSTEDO's negotiated "Maximum Fair Price" on November 25, 2025, effective January 1, 2027 for eligible Medicare patients[21].

The numeric baseline and the financial transmission determine how to read the third quarter. In the first half of 2026 AUSTEDO generated $1.236 billion in the US and $39 million in International Markets, or $1.275 billion combined[6]; subtracting that from the $2.45 billion to $2.6 billion full-year guidance leaves $1.175 billion to $1.325 billion for the second half, or about $588 million to $663 million per quarter on average[3][6]. The transmission runs from milligram prescriptions times unit net price, plus or minus channel inventory changes, into US segment revenue and gross profit; the Medicare price that takes effect on January 1, 2027 lowers unit net price for federal Medicare patients, and wholesalers draw down inventory beforehand, pushing reported revenue in the second half of 2026 below underlying demand. Because the company has flagged a fourth-quarter decline without giving a quarterly split, the average range is only a reference point, not third-quarter guidance.

What remains unresolved is the size of the remaining destocking and the size of the 2027 net-price impact, neither of which Teva has quantified. An alternative reading is that the net-price gains and the guidance raise have pulled demand forward, so a third-quarter drop accompanied by slower milligram growth would be more than an inventory story. In the third quarter, watch where global revenue lands against the $588 million to $663 million range, what the company says about remaining destocking and the 2027 net-price impact, and whether milligram growth stays in double digits. The observable falsifier: if third-quarter milligram growth falls below 10% or Teva cuts its full-year AUSTEDO outlook, the problem lies in demand or competition rather than inventory.

How much US generics revenue holds up once generic lenalidomide share has eroded?

US generics is the second-largest revenue source in the US segment, and the pace of its decline sets the floor of full-year revenue guidance. The business generated $3.657 billion in 2025[12], and first-half 2026 revenue of $1.272 billion was $537 million lower than a year earlier[6], making it the main reason total company revenue fell. As long as US generics keeps shrinking by around 30%, branded growth will struggle to translate into consolidated revenue growth.

Current evidence attributes the decline mainly to one product, but the share data send a different signal. US generics revenue was $612 million in the first quarter, down 28%[8], and $660 million in the second quarter, down 31%, and both times the company blamed increased competition on lenalidomide capsules, partly offset by biosimilars[7]. On the earnings call management said US generics grew 1% excluding lenalidomide, and global generics fell only 2% on the same basis[5]. Yet Teva's IQVIA prescription share dropped from 6.9% to 6.1% and its prescription count from about 266 million to about 237 million[7], so an alternative reading is that base products are also losing volume and biosimilar growth is masking it.

The baselines and transmission path show that this debate moves revenue and gross margin in opposite directions. The second-quarter baseline for US generics revenue is $660 million, against $961 million a year earlier[7], and the prescription-share baseline is 6.1%. The transmission runs from more lenalidomide competitors to lower US generic prices and share and then to lower US segment revenue, partly offset by biosimilars and new launches; because generics carry lower gross margins than branded drugs, this revenue decline actually helps overall gross margin, and non-GAAP gross margin still rose 0.8 percentage points year over year in the second quarter[5].

What remains unresolved is whether base products outside lenalidomide are stable or slowly declining. In the third quarter, watch whether US generics revenue falls below the first quarter's $612 million, how the company describes growth excluding lenalidomide and how biosimilar launches progress. The observable falsifier: if US generics excluding lenalidomide turns negative, management's call for global generics to be "flat to down low single digit"[5] loses its support.

Is the strong AJOVY and UZEDY growth driven by share gains or by a one-off reduction in sales allowances?

AJOVY and UZEDY are Teva's two main branded drugs beyond AUSTEDO, and the quality of their growth sets the starting point for 2027 innovative revenue. Their 2026 revenue outlooks are $850 million to $870 million and $270 million to $290 million, and together with AUSTEDO they form an innovative portfolio of about $3.7 billion growing about 17% at the midpoint[3]. On the earnings call management also said the olanzapine long-acting injectable is on track for FDA approval and a US launch in the fourth quarter of 2026, but initial volumes will be mainly samples and vouchers and no fourth-quarter revenue is expected[5].

Current evidence shows a large price component in AJOVY's US growth, while UZEDY relies more on volume. AJOVY's global revenue was $244 million in the second quarter, up 56% in local currency[3]; US revenue was $116 million, up 83%, which the company attributed to a reduction in sales allowances and volume growth, while US share rose from 31.0% to 32.5%[7]. In the first quarter AJOVY's US revenue grew 64%, and the company said then that the main reason was lower sales allowances[8]. A share gain of only 1.5 percentage points suggests a large part of US growth came from net price; meanwhile UZEDY revenue was $77 million, up 43%, reaching $140 million in the first half versus $93 million a year earlier, and AJOVY generated $154 million in Europe and $83 million in International Markets in the first half[6].

The baselines show that full-year guidance asks less of both drugs in the second half than they delivered in the first. AJOVY's first-half revenue across the three segments was $440 million and UZEDY's was $140 million[6]; working back from full-year guidance, the second half needs only $410 million to $430 million and $130 million to $150 million respectively[3][6], below an annualized second-quarter pace. The transmission runs from AJOVY's prescription share and net price (sales allowances) to revenue and from UZEDY's prescription volume to revenue, while the new long-acting injectable incurs selling costs before it contributes fourth-quarter revenue, lifting the operating expense ratio; management has said the full-year ratio will be around 28%[5].

What remains unresolved is whether AJOVY's allowance reduction has run its course and how fast it grows once comparisons get tougher. In the third quarter, watch how the company splits AJOVY's US growth between allowances and volume, how fast UZEDY grows and what the new long-acting injectable costs and prescribes at launch. The observable falsifier: if AJOVY's share falls while revenue keeps growing, growth depends on price and should slow noticeably once the comparison base rises.

Will margin gains turn into free cash flow and keep deleveraging on track toward 2x?

Free cash flow funds Teva's debt repayment, planned buybacks and outside acquisitions, so turning profit gains into cash is the key to deleveraging. Debt stood at $16.807 billion at the end of 2025[16], the company still owes $339 million to $415 million a year in opioid settlement payments from 2026 through 2029[19], and it paid about $700 million for Emalex in 2026[14]. Only sustained free cash flow at guided levels makes the 2027 target of net debt to EBITDA below 2x achievable.

Current evidence shows margins and cash flow improving, while leverage has ticked up temporarily because of the acquisition. Second-quarter non-GAAP gross margin was 55.4%, up 0.8 percentage points, and free cash flow was $622 million, up 31%; management maintained full-year free cash flow guidance and an expense ratio near 28%, and net debt to EBITDA was 2.8x at quarter end, or 2.3x excluding Emalex[5], above 2.42x in the first quarter[20]. In September Teva priced about $4.9 billion equivalent of senior notes and, together with cash on hand, plans to redeem all of its 6.750% notes due 2028, all of its 7.875% and 7.375% (euro) sustainability-linked notes due 2029, part of its 2027 and 2030 notes and all of its 2031 USD notes[9]. An alternative reading is that margin gains will be offset by launch spending and that second-half free cash flow may depend on seasonal fourth-quarter collections.

The baselines and transmission path define the second-half cash requirement. The second-quarter baseline for company-defined free cash flow is $622 million, with $810 million in the first half including $188 million in the first quarter[8][3], so the second half must produce another $1.19 billion to $1.59 billion to meet guidance; first-half net financial expenses were $440 million versus $477 million a year earlier[13]. The transmission runs from a rising branded mix to higher non-GAAP gross margin, from launch and R&D spending to an expense ratio near 28% of revenue, and from operating profit minus opioid settlements and interest to free cash flow, which then repays debt and lowers net debt to EBITDA.

What remains unresolved is how much interest the refinancing saves and how second-half cash flow splits between the third and fourth quarters. In the third quarter, watch non-GAAP gross margin and the expense ratio, cumulative nine-month free cash flow, and total debt and interest expense after the note redemptions. The observable falsifier: if gross margin lands inside the guided range but free cash flow falls behind the full-year pace, the problem lies in working capital or settlement payments rather than product mix.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is that acquisitions and R&D spending lift costs and delay the delivery of profit. Emalex adds about $0.77 billion of expense in 2026 and cuts full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance by $0.66[3]; Teva filed a new drug application for ecopipam on June 18, and Emalex's former shareholders and other third parties could receive up to $200 million and $125 million in milestone payments plus royalties after approval and commercialization[14]. The exposure sits in non-GAAP operating income and EPS, and the concern would be falsified if ecopipam is approved as planned and full-year non-GAAP operating income lands inside the $3.8 billion to $4.0 billion guidance.

The second risk is that AUSTEDO's unit net price steps down once the Medicare price takes effect in 2027, while second-half 2026 destocking pushes reported revenue below demand. The negotiated price takes effect for eligible Medicare patients on January 1, 2027[21], and the company already expects AUSTEDO revenue to fall year over year in the fourth quarter of 2026[5]. The exposure sits in US segment revenue and gross margin, and the concern would be falsified if third- and fourth-quarter revenue holds inside the guidance-implied range and the company describes a manageable 2027 impact.

The third risk is that US generic price erosion and delayed launches cause base products beyond lenalidomide to decline as well. The annual report says rising FDA approvals for existing generics are intensifying competition on base products and that, without timely launches, Teva may not offset price erosion on existing products[18]; prescription share has already fallen from 6.9% to 6.1%[7]. The exposure sits in US segment revenue, and the concern would be falsified if US generics excluding lenalidomide keeps growing and prescription share stabilizes.

The fourth risk is that AJOVY's US growth depends on lower sales allowances and slows once comparisons get tougher in the second half of 2026. Teva attributed AJOVY's US growth in the first quarter mainly to lower allowances[8] and in the second quarter to lower allowances and volume growth[7]. The exposure sits in AJOVY revenue and the full-year innovative-medicine outlook, and the concern would be falsified if AJOVY's US share keeps rising and the company attributes growth mainly to volume.

The fifth risk is that opioid and other legal settlement payments, together with working-capital swings, eat into free cash flow. The annual report lists opioid settlement payments of $378 million in 2026 and $364 million in 2027[19], and the second quarter added $230 million of legal settlements and loss contingencies[13]. The exposure sits in free cash flow, and the concern would be falsified if full-year free cash flow clears the $2.0 billion low end of guidance and settlement payments match the annual report.

What to Watch Next

• AUSTEDO destocking: watch global quarterly revenue against the $588 million to $663 million average range, from a second-quarter base of $696 million with 21% milligram growth[3][5], along with commentary on remaining destocking and the 2027 net-price impact. Milligram growth below 10% or a cut to full-year guidance would point to a demand or competition problem.
• US generics: watch whether quarterly revenue falls below $612 million, from a second-quarter base of $660 million and a 6.1% prescription share[7], and how growth excluding lenalidomide and biosimilar launches develop. A decline excluding lenalidomide would undercut the "flat" assumption.
• AJOVY and UZEDY: watch how AJOVY's US growth splits between allowances and volume from a 32.5% share, UZEDY growth from a $77 million quarter[7], and launch costs for the new long-acting injectable. Falling AJOVY share alongside rising revenue would signal price dependence.
• Cash and deleveraging: watch nine-month free cash flow, the expense ratio, and post-redemption debt and interest, from a second quarter with $622 million of free cash flow, 55.4% gross margin and 2.8x leverage[5]. On-target margins with lagging free cash flow would point to working capital or settlement payments.

Conclusion

Teva's business sits at the point where generics hand over to branded drugs as the main driver. In 2025 the company generated $17.258 billion of revenue and $2.157 billion of operating income[15] and ended the year with $16.807 billion of debt[16]; in the first half of 2026 US AUSTEDO revenue grew 39% while US generics revenue fell 30%[6], bringing the two lines close to parity. The central unresolved relationship is whether growing AUSTEDO prescription demand can still turn into full-year revenue, gross margin and more than $2.0 billion of free cash flow despite pre-Medicare-price destocking and a continuing slide in US generics.

Since the latest results, the third-party coverage found has consisted mainly of earnings recaps, product-approval and refinancing news, and brokers maintaining their existing stances, with no independent analysis of AUSTEDO destocking, US generics or cash flow, so this piece cites no outside interpretation and does not treat sell-side figures as a shared judgment. The only reference points are sell-side figures compiled by Drillr: seven analysts put average third-quarter revenue at $4.238 billion and non-GAAP EPS at $0.72, and nine analysts put average full-year revenue at $16.631 billion, inside the company's $16.5 billion to $16.85 billion guidance[4]. The earnings calendar shows first-quarter revenue of $3.982 billion and EPS of $0.53, both above the estimates at the time, while second-quarter EPS of $0.02 came in below the $0.08 estimate, mainly because of Emalex expenses[2][3].

The combination that would clearly strengthen the current understanding is third-quarter AUSTEDO revenue inside the roughly $588 million to $663 million average range with milligram growth still in double digits, US generics revenue no lower than $612 million, nine-month free cash flow consistent with the $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion full-year pace, and lower interest expense after the refinancing. Conversely, if AUSTEDO milligram growth drops below 10%, US generics excluding lenalidomide turns negative, or gross margin hits its target while free cash flow lags clearly behind, the current reading that revenue swings stem from destocking and a single product would be weakened.

Sources

[1] TEVA FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-03 · 2026-02-03 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[2] TEVA earnings calendar updated 2026-10-30 · 2026-10-30 · Drillr earnings calendar · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[3] TEVA Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-07-29 · 2026-07-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000818686/000117184326004974/exh_991.htm

[4] Drillr analyst estimates TEVA Q3 2026 retrieved 2026-10-30 · 2026-10-30 · Drillr analyst estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[5] TEVA Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[6] TEVA Q2 2026 10-Q six-month product revenues · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000818686/000119312526323619/d118828d10q.htm

[7] TEVA Q2 2026 10-Q United States segment · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000818686/000119312526323619/d118828d10q.htm

[8] TEVA Q1 2026 10-Q filed 2026-04-29 · 2026-04-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[9] TEVA senior notes 8-K filed 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-11 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[10] TEVA recast annual segments 8-K filed 2026-09-03 · 2026-09-03 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[11] TEVA FY2025 10-K segment profit · 2026-02-03 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[12] TEVA FY2025 10-K United States products · 2026-02-03 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[13] TEVA Q2 2026 10-Q segment profit · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000818686/000119312526323619/d118828d10q.htm

[14] TEVA Q2 2026 10-Q Emalex acquisition · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000818686/000119312526323619/d118828d10q.htm

[15] TEVA FY2025 10-K consolidated results · 2026-02-03 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[16] TEVA FY2025 10-K cash flow and debt · 2026-02-03 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[17] TEVA Q1 2026 8-K filed 2026-04-29 · 2026-04-29 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[18] TEVA FY2025 10-K generics competition · 2026-02-03 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[19] TEVA FY2025 10-K opioid settlements · 2026-02-03 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[20] TEVA Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-29 · 2026-04-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[21] TEVA FY2025 10-K AUSTEDO price setting and patents · 2026-02-03 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000818686&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40