GSK (GSK) Q3 2026: Shingrix Falls in Europe as Specialty Drugs Drive Growth

GSK (GSK) reported third-quarter 2026 results (July to September) on October 28, 2026, in a Form 6-K filing. In GSK's Q3 2026 results, Specialty Medicines lifted both turnover and core operating profit by 5% at constant exchange rates (CER, used for all growth rates below unless stated), while vaccines were the only business that clearly weakened [1]. Earlier coverage focused on four questions: whether long-acting injectables could keep HIV growing, whether the US decline in General Medicines would narrow, whether vaccines could hold the full-year flat guidance, and whether new specialty products could cover faster R&D spending and the Nuvalent consolidation. In the third quarter, HIV and General Medicines beat their earlier baselines, Shingrix lost its growth in Europe, and R&D investment absorbed the improvement in profit [1]. GSK reaffirmed full-year guidance of 3% to 5% turnover growth and 7% to 9% core operating profit growth, and expects both to land in the upper half of those ranges [1].

GSK is a prescription medicines and vaccines company that reports sales in three product groups: Specialty Medicines, Vaccines and General Medicines [2]. Third-quarter turnover was £8,887 million, of which Specialty Medicines contributed £3,877 million, up 15% [1].

Shingrix turns down in Europe and vaccines drag on growth

Vaccines performed worse than earlier expectations in the third quarter, and Shingrix sales in Europe fell year on year. In the second quarter, Shingrix in Europe grew 21% at actual exchange rates and was the main source of vaccine growth in the first half; in the third quarter, European sales were £289 million, down 1% [1]. Total Shingrix sales were £780 million, down 5%, and International sales fell 26%, which GSK attributed mainly to China [1]. The earnings call summary described the China decline as destocking [3].

US Shingrix sales rose 14%, which GSK attributed to pricing and inventory build in the quarter, and the US cumulative immunisation rate reached 46%, up 3 percentage points from 12 months earlier [1]. Sales of the RSV vaccine Arexvy fell 24%, while meningitis vaccines grew 12% to their highest sales quarter ever [1]. Total vaccine sales were £2,583 million, down 2%, still within the range that GSK's full-year guidance of "broadly stable to an increase at a low single-digit percentage" can absorb [1]. GSK did not disclose why Europe declined, and the US inventory build could reverse later. Vaccines carry higher gross margins than General Medicines, so the Shingrix decline weighs on the profit mix more than its share of sales suggests.

HIV growth still comes mainly from long-acting injectables

HIV sales were £2,116 million in the third quarter, up 10%, in line with the first-half pace [1]. The long-acting injectables Cabenuva and Apretude together reached £621 million, up 31%, and delivered 80% of HIV growth [1]. GSK attributed the growth to patient demand and described US channel-mix pricing as an additional favourable factor [1]. This confirms that switching to long-acting treatment remains the main source of HIV growth. The limits are also clear: long-acting injectables have stayed at 35% of US HIV sales for two quarters, the dolutegravir loss of exclusivity has started to hit International tender volumes, and analysis of the three-times-a-year prevention formulation is still underway [1].

The US decline in General Medicines narrowed faster than expected

General Medicines sales were £2,427 million in the third quarter, stable year on year, after a 9% decline in the second quarter [1]. US General Medicines grew 3% and Trelegy grew 8%; GSK attributed US Trelegy growth to higher volume and positive pricing adjustments, and Ventolin and Advair also had price adjustments [1]. GSK did not disclose the size of these pricing adjustments, and year to date General Medicines are still down 5% and the US is down 7% [1]. The earnings call summary also cited a 73% discount for Trelegy under US Medicare price negotiations [3]; the 6-K does not disclose when that effect begins.

Conclusion

The third quarter confirmed Specialty Medicines as GSK's growth engine, and General Medicines no longer dragged on growth, but the growth path for vaccines needs to be re-tested [1]. Profit conversion lagged sales: product mix cut the core cost of sales ratio by 1.2 percentage points, but core R&D rose 22%, so core operating profit of £3,076 million grew only 5%, the margin slipped to 34.6%, and Nuvalent-related interest held core earnings per share growth to 1% [1]. Cash generation was strong, with third-quarter free cash flow of £2,078 million against £1,246 million a year earlier, but that included working-capital timing and a low base from Zantac settlement payments in the prior-year quarter; net debt was £20,739 million at the end of September [1]. GSK launched its Accelerate Growth programme this quarter, targeting £1.9 billion of annual savings by 2029, mostly to be reinvested in R&D [1]. Whether fourth-quarter profit accelerates into the upper half of guidance, whether Shingrix stops declining in Europe and China, and whether the General Medicines recovery holds in a quarter without pricing adjustments will determine whether these conclusions stand.

Sources

[1] GSK 6-K filed 2026-10-28 · Q3 2026 results, October 28, 2026, GSK plc, Form 6-K third-quarter 2026 results, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1131399/000165495426009181/a6993a.htm [2] GSK 20-F filed 2026-03-06 · business description and product groups, March 6, 2026, GSK plc, Form 20-F annual report, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001131399&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 [3] GSK Q3 2026 earnings call 2026-10-28 · call summary (Drillr), October 28, 2026, earnings call summary (Drillr)