Nucor (NUE) Q3 2026 Earnings: Steel Mill Profit Rises Without Refund

Nucor (NUE) Q3 2026 earnings showed steel mill profit rising without the one-time refund that lifted the prior quarter. Nucor released results for the quarter ended October 3, 2026 in an 8-K on October 26, 2026 and held its earnings call the next day; the results came in above company guidance [1][2]. Four questions mattered going into the quarter: whether steel mill profit could keep rising without a one-time refund, whether record shipments would hold, whether steel products margins squeezed by higher steel costs would recover, and whether cash would stay on plan while the West Virginia sheet mill was commissioned. Diluted EPS was $5.80, about 3.5% above the midpoint of company guidance [2]. The quarter confirmed the answers on steel mill profit, steel products profit and cash. Shipments set another record, but utilization dipped slightly because of planned outages, which kept that result within its normal range. Overall, profit growth came mainly from a wider price spread, with only a small contribution from volume. Part of the cash improvement also came from slower working capital build and profit-sharing accruals that have not yet been paid.

Nucor is North America's largest electric arc furnace steelmaker and scrap recycler, and it uses scrap as its main steelmaking input [3]. Its steel mills, steel products and raw materials segments account for about 62%, 32% and 7% of external sales. The mills sell steel mainly to service centers and manufacturers, while the steel products segment supplies joists, deck, tubing and other products for nonresidential construction and infrastructure.

Steel mill profit rose to $1.788 billion without a refund

The steel mills segment earned $1.788 billion before taxes in the third quarter, up from the $1.556 billion reported for the second quarter and up 125% from a year earlier [1][4]. Second-quarter profit included a one-time $130 million raw material refund that did not recur in the third quarter [1]. Against the roughly $1.426 billion second-quarter figure excluding the refund, segment profit rose by about $360 million. When it reported second-quarter results, the company expected higher realized pricing across all major product categories in the third quarter [5]. The external average selling price rose from $1,145 per ton to $1,233, with sheet, bar, structural and plate prices all higher [4].

A wider spread drove most of the profit gain. Average scrap and scrap substitute cost was $421 per gross ton, essentially flat with the second quarter [4]. On a simple price-minus-scrap basis, the spread widened from $723 to $812, and steel mill pre-tax earnings per ton rose from $219 to $247 [4]. The company said consumables, freight, energy and more planned outages raised conversion costs [1][2], but it did not disclose a figure. Shipments reached 7.231 million tons, up only 2% from the prior quarter; utilization fell from 91% to 89%; and mill backlogs reached 5.9 million tons, up 5% from the prior quarter [1][4].

Steel products pricing caught up with steel costs

The steel products segment earned $465 million before taxes in the third quarter, $112 million more than in the second quarter [4][2]. In the first half, steel input costs rose faster than selling prices and compressed this segment's margins [6]. In the third quarter, the average selling price rose 7% to $2,576 per ton, shipments rose 6% to 1.363 million tons, and pre-tax earnings per ton recovered from $275 to $341, above the $270 earned a year earlier [4]. Management said joist and deck pricing rose by $110 per ton and that new orders are still priced above the existing backlog [4][2].

Price increases drove most of this recovery. By simple arithmetic, the $66 per ton gain in earnings contributed about $90 million and higher shipments contributed about $20 million. Higher mill prices also raised the segment's input costs, and Nucor's intersegment profit eliminations widened to $491 million [1], so the gains in the two segments cannot simply be added together.

Capital spending eased and free cash flow doubled

The West Virginia sheet mill remains on time and on budget [4]. The melt shop produced its first heat in September, and the company expects to run first coils through the hot mill, cold mill and galvanizing line by December [2]. That is consistent with the second-quarter plan to finish full commissioning by the end of 2026 [7]. Pre-operating and start-up costs were $124 million in the third quarter, compared with $120 million in the second quarter [2].

Cash generation strengthened sharply in the third quarter. Capital expenditures were $629 million and free cash flow was $1.607 billion, compared with $829 million in the second quarter [4]. The company expects full-year capital expenditures to finish at or slightly below $2.5 billion [2]. The improvement came from higher profit, slower working capital build, and a $458 million increase over the first nine months in salary, wage and profit-sharing accruals [1]. Those accruals have not yet been paid, and the payment timing was not disclosed.

What the quarter means for Nucor

The results show that both profit and cash conversion are improving at Nucor, driven by simultaneous price increases at the mills and in steel products and by lower capital spending. Nucor expects fourth-quarter earnings to be in line with or modestly higher than the third quarter, with higher pricing needed to offset seasonally lower shipments, more planned outages and rising West Virginia start-up costs [1][2]. The company also expects 2027 start-up costs to be similar to or higher than 2026 levels and capital spending to decline further [2]. The main uncertainties are the size of the conversion cost increase, the payment timing of profit-sharing accruals, and the rise in finished steel import market share from about 14% to about 17% [4]. The next tests are whether off-season price increases can hold profit in both segments, whether the West Virginia lines start on schedule, and whether free cash flow can stay high.

Sources

[1] NUE 8-K filed 2026-10-26 · Exhibit 99.1 Q3 2026 earnings release (October 26, 2026, Nucor, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 earnings release, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526432117/d129328dex991.htm) [2] NUE Q3 2026 earnings call 2026-10-27 · transcript (October 27, 2026, Nucor, third-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript) [3] NUE 10-K filed 2026-02-25 · company overview and recycling (February 25, 2026, Nucor, 10-K annual report, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526071575/0001193125-26-071575-index.htm) [4] NUE 8-K filed 2026-10-26 · Exhibit 99.2 Q3 2026 earnings call presentation (October 26, 2026, Nucor, 8-K Exhibit 99.2 earnings call presentation, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526432117/d129328dex992.htm) [5] NUE 8-K filed 2026-07-27 · Q3 2026 outlook (July 27, 2026, Nucor, 8-K second-quarter earnings release, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526318190/0001193125-26-318190-index.htm) [6] NUE 10-Q filed 2026-08-12 · Q2 2026 results discussion (August 12, 2026, Nucor, 10-Q quarterly report, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526345891/0001193125-26-345891-index.htm) [7] NUE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · operations and West Virginia mill (July 28, 2026, Nucor, second-quarter 2026 earnings call, https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private)