Nucor 2025-26: WV Mill Investment, Q1 EPS Higher Q-o-Q
FY25 revenue $32.49B (+6%); Op income $2.66B (-11%); NI $1.74B (-14%); EPS $7.52 (-11%). Lowest injury rate in company history (8th consecutive year of improvement). Steve Laxton promoted to President + COO; Dave Sumoski retiring June. Q4 Steel Mills $516M pretax (-35% sequential); Steel Products $230M (vs $319M Q3). FY26 capex ~$2.5B (2/3 growth); West Virginia sheet mill the largest single use. Q1 FY26 expected higher consolidated earnings + improved across segments.
Key takeaways
- Steel cycle continued moderation. Revenue +6% on price recovery + WV mill ramp; but EPS -11% as steel cycle dynamics moderated in 2H. Q4 Steel Mills $516M pretax was -35% sequential.
- Capital intensity stepping up. $-3.42B capex FY25 (10.5% of revenue); FY26 guide $-2.5B with 2/3 on growth investments. West Virginia sheet mill the single largest item — major capacity expansion.
- Q1 FY26 expected sequentially higher. Mgmt: "expected higher consolidated earnings with improved results across segments." Steel demand expected slightly up vs FY25.
- Management transition. Steve Laxton promoted to President + COO effective Jan 2026. Dave Sumoski retiring June 2026 after long tenure.
- Safety record. 8th consecutive year of injury rate improvement; final 2 months of FY25 the safest ever recorded.
Business
Nucor is the largest US steel producer + a leading recycler — operating mini-mills + steel products + raw materials businesses. Three segments:
- Steel Mills (~60% of revenue): Hot-rolled + cold-rolled + plate + structural + bar steel. Mini-mill technology using electric arc furnaces (EAF) + scrap steel as primary input. New West Virginia sheet mill major addition.
- Steel Products (~25% of revenue): Joist + deck + cold-finished bar + steel mesh + insulated metal panels + fastener + steel piling + grating + others. Higher-margin downstream products.
- Raw Materials (~15% of revenue): Direct-reduced iron (DRI) + scrap brokerage + scrap recycling + transportation services.
Strategic position: Largest US steel producer, mini-mill leader, lowest cost-per-ton in industry, vertically-integrated through DRI + scrap operations.
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 34.71 | 30.73 | 32.49 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 7.82 | 4.10 | 3.88 |
| Op income ($B) | 6.23 | 2.98 | 2.66 |
| Op margin | 17.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% |
| EBITDA ($B) | 7.69 | 4.49 | 4.11 |
| Net income ($B) | 4.52 | 2.03 | 1.74 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 18.00 | 8.46 | 7.52 |
| FCF ($M) | 4,898 | 806 | -188 |
| Capex ($B) | -2.21 | -3.17 | -3.42 |
| Total debt ($B) | 6.84 | 6.95 | 7.12 |
| Dividends ($M) | -515 | -522 | -512 |
| Buyback ($B) | -1.55 | -2.22 | -0.70 |
The earnings print: Revenue +6% on price recovery + new mill capacity, but op margin compressed -150bp to 8.2% on cycle moderation. EPS -11% to $7.52.
FCF turned negative -$188M FY25 reflecting heavy capex; total debt $7.12B held similar to FY24.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-3.42B FY25 (10.5% of revenue) — heavy growth investment. FY26 guide $-2.5B (2/3 growth).
- Dividends: $-512M FY25 (held flat, ~$2/share annual).
- Buybacks: $-700M FY25 (vs $-2.22B FY24, $-1.55B FY23). Material slowdown reflecting capex priority.
- M&A: Bolt-ons; no major.
- Debt: $7.12B (+$170M YoY).
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-01-27)
| FY26 framework | Direction |
|---|---|
| Capex | ~$2.5B (2/3 growth) |
| West Virginia sheet mill | Largest single capital use |
| Q1 FY26 earnings | Higher sequentially |
| Domestic steel demand | Slightly up vs FY25 |
| Management changes | Steve Laxton President/COO Jan 2026 |
The +slight steel demand FY26 with WV mill ramping creates the bullish setup. Steel pricing cycle remains the dominant variable.
Key risks
- Steel pricing cycle: Outside Nucor's control. Recession or import surge compresses pricing.
- WV mill ramp: Major project must hit utilization + margin targets to justify capex.
- Imports + trade policy: Section 232 + Section 301 tariffs material; changes affect competitive dynamics.
- Auto + construction cycle: Major end markets. Auto + non-resi construction slowdown compresses volume.
- Scrap pricing: Mini-mill input cost; cycle volatile.
- Capex execution: $2.5B annual run-rate requires discipline + project execution.
Bottom line
NUE FY25 is the cycle moderation + WV mill investment year. Revenue +6% on price recovery, but EPS -11% as cycle moderated. FY26 guide ~$2.5B capex (2/3 growth), Q1 sequentially higher, slight steel demand recovery. The structural read: largest US steel producer + lowest cost + mini-mill leader + capital return discipline. Risks are pricing cycle + import + trade policy + WV mill ramp execution.
Citations
- Nucor Corporation FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- Nucor Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-01-27 — lowest injury rate in company history (8th consecutive year improvement); Steve Laxton promoted to President + COO Jan 2026, Dave Sumoski retiring June; Steel Mills Q4 $516M pretax, Steel Products $230M; FY26 capex ~$2.5B (2/3 growth, WV sheet mill largest), Q1 FY26 sequentially higher, slight domestic steel demand up.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).