[MRNA] Moderna: Q3 2026 Earnings Hinge on U.S. Fall COVID Vaccine Sales

Moderna is a biotechnology company that develops vaccines and medicines on its messenger RNA (mRNA) platform, and its product revenue still comes almost entirely from COVID vaccines[1][2]. The company is scheduled to report Moderna Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-11-06, covering Q3 2026 (three months ended September 30, 2026)[3]. In the latest disclosed period, the second quarter of 2026, total revenue was $145 million versus $142 million a year earlier, split between $87 million in the U.S. and $58 million internationally; cost of sales was $93 million, including $41 million of inventory write-downs and $23 million of unutilized manufacturing capacity costs; R&D expense was $651 million, down 7% year over year; and cash, cash equivalents and investments stood at $6.9 billion on June 30 before the company paid a $950 million patent settlement in July[4]. Management's July 31 guidance calls for 2026 total revenue growth of up to 10% from 2025's $1.944 billion, a roughly even U.S./international split and about 55% of second-half revenue landing in the third quarter, which implies about $880 million of third-quarter revenue at the top of the range[4]. The Drillr consensus from 10 analysts puts third-quarter revenue at $891 million (range $838 million to $947 million), and 11 analysts put EPS at -$1.11[5]; the earnings calendar records a revenue estimate of $883 million[3].

Three things matter most in this report. The first is U.S. fall-season revenue: about 70% of first-half revenue of $534 million came from international deliveries under government partnerships such as the U.K.'s, so delivering the full-year 50/50 split requires roughly $900 million of U.S. revenue in the second half, and the third quarter is the first test of that[6][4][7]. The second is whether pre-season inventory turns into gross profit: inventory rose to $280 million at the end of June from $153 million at the start of the year, while full-year 2025 inventory write-downs reached $291 million, so third-quarter shipments will decide whether the cost-of-sales ratio improves or the write-downs repeat[8][9]. The third is whether cash burn is truly narrowing: the $3 billion zero-coupon convertible issued in August lifted the cash balance, and the third-quarter report is the first disclosure after the financing that allows the settlement payment, the financing and operating burn to be separated[10].

Company Background and Business Structure

Moderna is moving from pandemic orders to a seasonal commercial market and long-term government partnerships, and its revenue base has shrunk sharply along the way. Total revenue fell 40% from $3.236 billion in 2024 to $1.944 billion in 2025; the 10-K attributes the 42% drop in product sales mainly to lower COVID vaccine volumes in every region and says product sales should return to growth in 2026 on the full-year contribution of long-term partnerships in the U.K., Canada and Australia and continued uptake of mNEXSPIKE in the U.S.[1][11]. The company currently sells COVID vaccines, including mNEXSPIKE, the next-generation product launched for the 2025/2026 season, and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine mRESVIA; by early May, mNEXSPIKE, the flu-plus-COVID combination vaccine mCOMBRIAX and mRESVIA for adults 18 and older had been approved in Europe[11][6]. The flu vaccine mFLUSIVA received a unanimous recommendation from the U.S. vaccine advisory committee ahead of an August 5 review goal date, while the full-year revenue guidance assumes no 2026 revenue from the flu vaccine or mCOMBRIAX[4][7].

Oncology is Moderna's main research effort beyond respiratory vaccines, but it does not yet generate revenue. With Merck, the company is developing the individualized neoantigen therapy intismeran (mRNA-4157), which had nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials underway at the end of June across tumor types including melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma, and the company said then that Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma data could arrive in 2026[12]. On October 22, detailed Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma data for the therapy combined with Keytruda were released, and Reuters reported a 42% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death[13]. On the management side, the company announced on September 30 that Andres had been appointed chief operating officer and that Jerh Collins, chief technical operations and quality officer, would retire[14].

Moderna reports a single operating segment, and its revenue falls into product sales and other revenue, with product sales almost entirely COVID vaccines. Product sales were $1.818 billion in 2025, about 93.5% of total revenue; other revenue was $126 million, made up of $80 million of stand-ready manufacturing revenue, $22 million of grants, $13 million of collaboration revenue and $11 million of licensing and royalties[1]. In the first half of 2026, COVID vaccine sales were $436 million and RSV vaccine sales only $10 million, and the 10-K acknowledges that RSV sales have been "minimal to date"[15][2]. By customer location, 2025 product sales were $1.165 billion in the U.S., $50 million in Europe and $603 million in the rest of the world[1].

The U.S. and international businesses sell in very different ways, which sets the timing of revenue recognition and cash collection. In the U.S., the vaccines go mainly to wholesalers and distributors and, to a lesser extent, directly to retail pharmacies and healthcare providers, and wholesalers typically do not pay upfront[11]. International revenue used to depend on pandemic-era government advance purchase agreements, which have largely been fulfilled; it now comes mainly from long-term strategic partnerships in the U.K., Canada and Australia, where Moderna built and runs mRNA plants that were fully licensed in 2025, each government has committed to multi-year purchases, and part of the contract consideration is recognized over time as stand-ready manufacturing revenue while the rest becomes product sales as doses are delivered[11][2]. Manufacturing centers on the company's own campus in Norwood, Massachusetts, and a separate facility built for intismeran began shipping patient batches in September 2025[2].

Financial History and Current Position

Moderna remained deeply loss-making in 2025, although both the loss and the operating cash outflow narrowed from 2024. In 2025, total revenue was $1.944 billion, cost of sales $868 million, R&D expense $3.132 billion (down 31%), SG&A $1.018 billion (down 13%), operating loss $3.074 billion, interest income $314 million and net loss $2.822 billion, compared with a 2024 net loss of $3.561 billion[1]. Net cash used in operating activities was $1.873 billion in 2025 versus $3.004 billion in 2024; capital expenditure was $192 million, and year-end cash, cash equivalents and investments were about $8.1 billion, including a $600 million term loan draw[16].

Quarterly figures in the first half of 2026 reflect both seasonality and a one-time settlement charge, so they cannot simply be extrapolated to the full year. First-quarter revenue was $389 million ($78 million in the U.S., $311 million internationally), driven mainly by deliveries under the U.K. long-term partnership; cost of sales was $955 million, of which $878 million related to the Arbutus/Genevant patent settlement and amortization of the associated intangible asset, and the quarter's net loss was $1.3 billion[6][17]. Second-quarter revenue was $145 million, and cost of sales was 74% of net product sales plus stand-ready manufacturing revenue versus 91% a year earlier, a decline driven mainly by lower unutilized capacity costs[4][18]. First-half total revenue rose $284 million, or 114%, year over year; R&D totaled about $1.30 billion ($649 million in the first quarter and $651 million in the second), and SG&A totaled about $389 million ($173 million and $216 million)[15][6][4].

The balance sheet went through one large payment and one large financing in the third quarter, so the June figures no longer describe the September position. On June 30, cash and cash equivalents were $1.723 billion, current investments $3.415 billion and non-current investments $1.772 billion, about $6.9 billion in total; inventory was $280 million, accounts receivable $17 million, long-term debt $591 million and deferred revenue tied to customer advance payments $442 million; first-half net cash used in operating activities was $1.156 billion and capital expenditure $99 million[8]. In July the company paid the $950 million settlement[4]. On August 28, Moderna priced zero-coupon convertible senior notes due 2032 with $2.6 billion of principal, which reached $3 billion after the initial purchasers fully exercised their $400 million option; estimated net proceeds with the option exercised are about $2.957 billion, about $285 million of which pays for capped call transactions, and the initial conversion price is about $210.58 per share[10]. The July guidance for year-end cash and investments of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion excludes any draws on the remaining $0.9 billion of the credit facility and was set before the convertible was issued[4].

Operating Model

Moderna's revenue splits into a U.S. line and an international line with different drivers and seasonal timing. The U.S. line is roughly the number of vaccinations in the fall and winter season times Moderna's share times the net price after allowances; in the 2025/2026 season the company held 24% of the U.S. retail COVID vaccine market and 34% among adults 65 and older[7]. The international line is roughly the doses delivered under the U.K., Canada and Australia partnerships and other government orders times the contract price, following each country's vaccination campaigns; for example, the U.K. spring campaign was delivered in the first quarter, with a second campaign planned for the fall[19]. Management said in July that guidance already reflects a decline in U.S. vaccination rates, that a smaller decline would create upside to full-year revenue and a larger one downside, and that international growth is mostly locked in by existing partnership contracts[7].

Fixed costs make up a large share of cost of sales, so gross profit is highly sensitive to shipment volume, and demand misjudgments show up as write-downs at quarter end. Cost of sales has three parts: production costs and royalties that move with volume; plant costs that do not, with the idle portion booked directly as unutilized capacity cost; and write-downs of finished, semi-finished and raw-material inventory based on the latest demand forecast at quarter end[9][18]. In 2025, cost of sales was $868 million, or 48% of net product sales, including $88 million of royalties, $291 million of inventory write-downs and $93 million of unutilized capacity and wind-down costs; the company attributes the write-downs and capacity charges mainly to demand forecast adjustments in a seasonal market that requires producing several products ahead of each season[9]. Subtracting R&D (about $2.9 billion guided for 2026) and SG&A (about $1.0 billion, with commercial spending concentrated in the second half) from gross profit gives the operating loss[4][7].

Operating cash flow is even more seasonal than earnings, because revenue booked in the peak season turns into cash only over later quarters. U.S. wholesalers typically do not pay upfront, so receivables from peak-season shipments are collected afterward, while some government contracts include advance payments recorded as deferred revenue[11][8]. Pre-season inventory builds absorb cash in the first half; inventory was $280 million at the end of June versus $153 million at the start of the year[8]. On financing, the company has a $1.5 billion term loan facility with $600 million drawn; of the remaining $900 million, $400 million can be drawn subject to conditions through November 2027 and $500 million is further tied to specified regulatory approval milestones[16], and management guided 2026 cash costs (excluding stock-based compensation, depreciation, amortization and the litigation settlement) of about $4.0 billion and GAAP operating expenses excluding the $0.9 billion litigation charge of about $4.7 billion[7].

Industry and Competitive Position

In the U.S. COVID vaccine market, Moderna competes mainly with Pfizer/BioNTech, whose vaccine also uses mRNA, and also with products from Sanofi and Novavax[2]. The 10-K attributes the 2025 decline in U.S. sales to lower overall vaccination demand, partly offset by higher retail-channel share driven by mNEXSPIKE[11]. In RSV vaccines, Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline entered the U.S. market before Moderna, and the company's RSV sales remain minimal[2].

Internationally, Moderna has shifted from pandemic advance purchase agreements to trading local manufacturing for multi-year purchase commitments. Its plants in the U.K., Canada and Australia were fully licensed in 2025[2], and in the second quarter of 2026 the company also signed a joint procurement contract with the European Commission on behalf of six countries for up to 24 million doses of mRESVIA[4]. The available comparison has clear limits: the company does not split COVID and RSV vaccine sales by region, does not disclose doses, net prices or wholesale channel inventory, and U.S. vaccination rates can only be judged qualitatively from management's comments.

Core Debates

Can the U.S. fall vaccination season carry Moderna's third quarter to roughly $880 million in revenue?

This question decides whether the full-year revenue guidance holds, because Moderna's revenue is heavily concentrated in the second half. First-half 2026 revenue was $534 million, about 70% of it from international deliveries under government partnerships such as the U.K.'s[6][4][7]. The company is holding to growth of up to 10% and an even U.S./international split; on 2025's $1.944 billion base, the top of the range is about $2.138 billion, which requires roughly $900 million of U.S. revenue in the second half, and the company also expects about 55% of second-half revenue to fall in the third quarter[4].

The current baselines show that third-quarter revenue would still be below the prior-year quarter even at the top of guidance. The calculation ($1.944 billion × 1.10 − $534 million) × 55% gives about $882 million for the third quarter; subtracting first-half figures from full-year figures puts second-half 2025 total revenue at about $1.694 billion, including about $1.046 billion of U.S. product sales and about $572 million of international product sales[1][15]. First-half 2026 revenue was $165 million in the U.S. and $369 million internationally[6][4]. The Drillr third-quarter revenue consensus of $891 million sits slightly above the guidance-implied figure, while the full-year consensus from 17 analysts of $2.101 billion sits slightly below the top of the full-year range[5]; the earnings calendar records actual third-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.016 billion[3].

Revenue transmission starts with U.S. vaccinations and then adds international contract deliveries. Once fall shipments begin, vaccinations times Moderna's retail share (24% in the 2025/2026 season) times net price produce U.S. product sales, deliveries for fall campaigns under government partnerships such as the U.K.'s produce international product sales, and together they form third-quarter revenue and determine whether up-to-10% growth and the even split are delivered[7]. What remains unresolved is the source of growth: if third-quarter revenue meets the target but the U.S. share is low, growth may reflect the timing of international contract deliveries rather than U.S. demand, and the full-year 50/50 split would then depend on the fourth quarter.

The test is whether total revenue, the regional split and management's commentary line up. Third-quarter revenue of at least $850 million with the up-to-10% growth guidance maintained, U.S. revenue above $470 million and more than 55% of the quarter, and international revenue of at least about $385 million with U.K. fall deliveries on schedule would support the current reading; management's latest comments on the size of the U.S. vaccination decline, mNEXSPIKE share and whether mFLUSIVA has started contributing revenue also need to be checked. If U.S. vaccination rates fall more than guidance assumes, so that roughly $900 million of second-half U.S. demand does not materialize and full-year growth lands below the 10% ceiling, or if growth comes mainly from government contract deliveries that mask real U.S. demand, the current reading weakens.

Will the inventory Moderna built ahead of the season turn into third-quarter gross profit rather than write-downs?

This question decides whether second-half gross profit improves or the write-downs repeat, because most of Moderna's cost of sales is fixed plant cost and every season requires producing ahead against a forecast. Actual demand diverged from forecasts in both 2024 and 2025, and in 2025 inventory write-downs of $291 million and unutilized capacity and wind-down costs of $93 million together made up about 40% of cost of sales[9]. Inventory rose to $280 million at the end of June 2026 from $153 million at the start of the year, and whether third-quarter shipments absorb that build is the key point[8].

The second-quarter cost improvement came mainly from less idle capacity, and full-year cost guidance was cut accordingly. Second-quarter cost of sales was $93 million, down 22% year over year, including $41 million of inventory write-downs and $23 million of unutilized capacity costs; first-half write-downs totaled $79 million[18]. The company then lowered full-year cost of sales guidance from about $1.8 billion to about $1.7 billion, including the $0.9 billion one-time litigation settlement charge[4]. That implies second-half cost of sales of about $650 million, close to about $659 million in the second half of 2025; second-half 2025 cost of sales was about 41% of that period's $1.618 billion of product sales, while the comparable second-quarter 2026 ratio was 74%[1][18].

Gross profit transmission depends on whether shipments spread the fixed costs. After producing ahead against the fall demand forecast, third-quarter shipments that absorb inventory and spread plant fixed costs would lower unutilized capacity costs and write-downs, bringing down the cost-of-sales ratio and lifting gross profit; if shipments fall short of the forecast, quarter-end write-downs against the new forecast and idle capacity charges would push the ratio up[9][18]. What remains unresolved is what the inventory is for: at the top of guidance, second-half 2026 revenue would be about $1.60 billion, below $1.694 billion in the second half of 2025, so any improvement in the cost ratio depends on further declines in write-downs and idle costs; an alternative explanation is that part of the build is for government contracts such as the U.K.'s and for new products (mFLUSIVA and the European mRESVIA contract), in which case flat September inventory would not necessarily signal write-down risk, and the company's explanation of inventory composition will matter.

The test rests on the cost-of-sales ratio, the size of write-downs and ending inventory. Third-quarter cost of sales below 30% of product sales and no more than $400 million, write-downs within $50 million, September inventory below June's $280 million, unutilized capacity costs near the second quarter's $23 million and a clear explanation of whether full-year cost guidance changes again would support the current reading. If U.S. demand falls short of the forecast and quarter-end write-downs scale with the size of the build, or if fixed costs at the three overseas plants and the Norwood campus flow straight into cost of sales because shipments are too low, the current reading weakens.

After cost cuts and a $3 billion convertible, is Moderna's underlying cash burn actually narrowing?

This question decides whether changes in the cash balance reflect operating improvement or financing. Moderna's 2025 R&D and SG&A together came to $4.150 billion, about 2.1 times that year's revenue[1]; cash and investments fell from about $8.1 billion at the end of 2025 to $6.9 billion at the end of June 2026, and the company paid the $950 million settlement in July[16][4]. The $3 billion zero-coupon convertible in August replenished cash but also makes the quarterly cash figure a poor direct read on operating improvement, and the third-quarter report is the first disclosure after the financing in which these pieces can be separated[10].

Expenses fell in the first half, but the full-year guidance implies higher spending in the second half. First-half R&D was about $1.30 billion and SG&A about $389 million, and in the second quarter they fell 7% and 6% year over year[6][4]. In July the company cut full-year R&D guidance from about $3.0 billion to about $2.9 billion, kept SG&A at about $1.0 billion and raised year-end cash guidance by about $0.2 billion to $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion, which implies second-half R&D of about $1.6 billion and SG&A of about $610 million, both above first-half quarterly levels[4]. First-half net cash used in operating activities was $1.156 billion, with the settlement then accrued but not yet paid[8]; starting from $6.9 billion at the end of June, subtracting the $950 million settlement, adding about $2.96 billion of convertible net proceeds and subtracting about $285 million of capped call cost gives about $8.6 billion at the end of September before third-quarter operating cash flow and capital expenditure[10].

Cash transmission has an operating layer and a financing layer. Program changes and cost reductions show up first in R&D and SG&A, which set the operating loss; the operating loss plus seasonal working-capital swings and capital expenditure produce operating cash burn, and adding the July settlement payment and the convertible that closed in early September yields September cash and the year-end guidance[7][10]. What remains unresolved is the nature of the savings: second-half expense guidance may be conservative, and spending below guidance would make cash look better, but if the savings come from delayed clinical activity, costs would return in 2027; it is also necessary to separate cash improvement driven by expense cuts from peak-season collection timing, and the company says the convertible proceeds may be used to invest in its oncology business and to repay debt[10].

The test covers cash, expenses and the spending plan for intismeran. September cash and investments of at least about $8.0 billion with an explanation of how the convertible enters year-end cash guidance, third-quarter R&D of no more than $700 million and SG&A of no more than $320 million, full-year expense guidance held or lowered, and an official filing that sets out the regulatory submission timing and commercialization spending for intismeran would support the current reading. If the savings mainly reflect delayed clinical activity and 2027 costs rise, or if the convertible lifts the cash balance while operating cash outflow exceeds about $1 billion a quarter, the cost-reduction path has not been delivered.

Risks and Falsifiers

The Arbutus/Genevant appeal is the largest single contingent payment risk today. Under the settlement agreement, Moderna has appealed the District Court decision related to 28 U.S.C. § 1498 to the Federal Circuit and could be required to pay up to an additional $1.3 billion depending on the outcome; as of June 30 no accrual had been recorded because a loss was not considered probable[12]. That amount equals about 28% of the $4.7 billion low end of year-end cash guidance and would have to be expensed once deemed probable; a favorable appeal outcome, or confirmation in a later filing that the contingent payment no longer exists, would falsify this risk[4].

A larger-than-assumed drop in U.S. fall vaccination rates would directly undermine the full-year revenue mix. Every $100 million by which second-half U.S. revenue falls short of the implied $904 million cuts full-year growth by about 5 percentage points on 2025's $1.944 billion base[1][7]. Third-quarter U.S. revenue of at least $470 million with full-year guidance maintained would falsify this risk.

Fall demand below the production forecast would raise quarter-end inventory write-downs and idle capacity costs at the same time. Comparable write-downs totaled $291 million for full-year 2025[9]; if third-quarter write-downs exceed $100 million, both the implied second-half cost of sales of about $650 million and the full-year guidance of about $1.7 billion would be exceeded[4]. Third-quarter write-downs of no more than $50 million with lower September inventory would falsify this risk.

The sharp second-half increase in R&D implied by guidance could slow the cost-reduction path. Full-year R&D guidance of about $2.9 billion implies an average of about $800 million per quarter in the second half, above the first half's roughly $650 million per quarter, and commercialization preparation for intismeran could add spending[4][10]. Every $100 million of R&D above full-year guidance reduces year-end cash by about $100 million and narrows room for further cuts in 2027; third-quarter R&D of no more than $700 million, with full-year R&D and cash cost guidance held or lowered, would falsify this risk[7].

What to Watch Next

• U.S. fall revenue: third-quarter total revenue against the guidance-implied $882 million and the prior-year $1.016 billion; at least $850 million with up-to-10% growth guidance maintained confirms, a clear shortfall weakens.
• Regional split: first-half U.S. revenue was $165 million and international $369 million; U.S. revenue of at least $470 million and above 55% of the quarter, with international at least about $385 million, confirms.
• Cost of sales: second-quarter cost of sales was $93 million, or 74%, and second-half 2025 about 41%; a ratio below 30% and no more than $400 million confirms.
• Write-downs and inventory: second-quarter write-downs were $41 million and June inventory $280 million; write-downs of no more than $50 million with lower inventory confirm, above $100 million falsifies.
• Operating expenses: second-quarter R&D was $651 million and SG&A $216 million; no more than $700 million and $320 million respectively confirms.
• September cash: $6.9 billion at the end of June and about $8.6 billion after the settlement and financing adjustments; at least about $8.0 billion confirms, operating outflow above about $1 billion a quarter falsifies.
• Cross-cutting risk: the Arbutus/Genevant appeal, worth up to $1.3 billion and not accrued; a favorable outcome or release of the contingent payment falsifies the risk.

Conclusion

Moderna's operating results are driven almost entirely by seasonal COVID vaccine demand, and its financial position depends on whether the revenue recovery can catch up with a still very large cost base. In 2025 the company reported revenue of $1.944 billion and a net loss of $2.822 billion[1]; first-half 2026 revenue was $534 million, cash and investments were $6.9 billion at the end of June, and the company has since paid the $950 million settlement and issued the $3 billion convertible[4][10]. The central unresolved relationship is whether the U.S. fall season can deliver about $900 million of second-half revenue while the $280 million inventory build is absorbed at peak shipments rather than written down, so that cost cuts show up as genuinely narrower operating cash burn.

Outside commentary since the latest results has focused on the detailed intismeran Phase 3 melanoma data released on October 22, and the views diverge clearly. BioPharma Dive reported that TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren saw "a highly compelling efficacy profile" that substantially clears the physician-defined bar for a practice-changing dataset, while in the same report William Blair analyst Myles Minter described the share decline as a "sell-the-news reaction"[20]. Reuters reported that 82.2% of patients who received the vaccine with Keytruda were cancer-free after two years versus 70% on Keytruda alone, while RBC analyst Trung Huynh wrote that the data make the firm less optimistic about pricing in multibillion-dollar intismeran franchises across oncology because melanoma was supposed to be the best case, and some analysts questioned how broadly the technology can extend to other cancers[13]. Both views bear mainly on the expense and cash debate: if the data are seen as practice-changing, regulatory filings and launch preparation will enter spending and cash plans sooner, while doubts about commercial scale and reach across tumor types mean near-term revenue still rests mainly on respiratory vaccines. No independent outside view on fall COVID and RSV sales or on the third-quarter report itself has appeared.

The current reading would be materially strengthened by a combination of observations arriving together: third-quarter revenue near about $880 million with U.S. revenue of at least $470 million, write-downs of no more than $50 million and lower September inventory, R&D of no more than $700 million with full-year expense and cash cost guidance held or lowered, and September cash of at least about $8.0 billion after the convertible. Conversely, U.S. revenue below $470 million with growth driven mainly by international contract deliveries, quarter-end write-downs above $100 million, operating cash outflow above about $1 billion a quarter, or an appeal outcome requiring an additional payment of up to $1.3 billion to Arbutus/Genevant would materially weaken it[12].

Sources

[1] MRNA FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-20 · 2026-02-20 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/

[2] MRNA FY2025 10-K manufacturing and competition · 2026-02-20 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/

[3] MRNA earnings calendar updated 2026-10-29 · 2026-10-29 · Drillr earnings calendar · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[4] MRNA Q2 2026 8-K filed 2026-07-31 · 2026-07-31 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001682852&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[5] Drillr analyst estimates MRNA Q3 2026 retrieved 2026-10-29 · 2026-10-29 · Drillr analyst estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[6] MRNA Q1 2026 8-K filed 2026-05-01 · 2026-05-01 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001682852&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[7] MRNA Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-31 · 2026-07-31 · earnings-call · https://investors.modernatx.com

[8] MRNA Q2 2026 10-Q balance sheet and cash flow · 2026-07-31 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000150/

[9] MRNA FY2025 10-K cost of sales and opex · 2026-02-20 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/

[10] MRNA convertible notes 8-K filed 2026-09-01 · 2026-09-01 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001682852&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[11] MRNA FY2025 10-K revenue discussion · 2026-02-20 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/

[12] MRNA Q2 2026 10-Q legal proceedings · 2026-07-31 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000150/

[13] Reuters on intismeran Phase 3 data 2026-10-22 · 2026-10-22 · Reuters · https://www.ksl.com/article/51639920/merckmoderna-cancer-vaccine-cuts-melanoma-death-or-recurrence-risk-by-42-shares-fall

[14] MRNA COO appointment 8-K filed 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001682852&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[15] MRNA Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-31 · 2026-07-31 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000150/

[16] MRNA FY2025 10-K liquidity and credit facility · 2026-02-20 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/

[17] MRNA Q1 2026 10-Q filed 2026-05-01 · 2026-05-01 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000060/

[18] MRNA Q2 2026 10-Q cost of sales · 2026-07-31 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000150/

[19] MRNA Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-01 · 2026-05-01 · earnings-call · https://investors.modernatx.com

[20] BioPharma Dive TD Cowen view on intismeran 2026-10-22 · 2026-10-22 · BioPharma Dive · https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/moderna-merck-esmo-intismeran-melanoma-vaccine-results/833765/