[BBVA] BBVA: Q3 2026 earnings preview, Mexico spreads, Turkey and buybacks

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) is a Madrid-headquartered banking group that runs retail, corporate, insurance and asset-management businesses in Spain, owns BBVA Mexico, one of Mexico's largest banks, and controls Garanti BBVA in Turkey; its American depositary shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange[1]. The BBVA Q3 2026 earnings call is scheduled for 2026-10-29 and will cover 2026 Q3 (three months ended September 30, 2026)[2]. In the latest disclosed quarter, 2Q26, Group net attributable profit was €3,062 million, bringing the first half to €6,051 million, up 10% year on year; second-quarter net interest income was €7,627 million, up 17.8% year on year at constant exchange rates, operating expenses were €3,951 million, loan impairments were €1,677 million, return on tangible equity (ROTE) was 22.2% for the half and the CET1 ratio was 12.90% at the end of June[3]. On the July 31 call, management raised its 2026 Group ROTE guidance to around 21%, set Mexico guidance at around 10% loan growth, high single-digit net interest income growth and a cost of risk below 335 basis points, and raised Turkey's cost-of-risk guidance from 200 basis points to around 220[4]; the April outlook page had already put Turkey's full-year net profit at around €1 billion with a downward bias[5]. The consensus of 18 analysts that BBVA compiles on its investor relations site, updated September 9, gives full-year figures: 2026 net interest income of €30,561 million, gross income of €42,384 million, net attributable profit of €11,879 million and a year-end CET1 ratio of 12.45%; against €6,051 million in the first half, that implies about €5.8 billion of net attributable profit in the second half[6].

Three things matter most in the coming results. The first is whether Mexico can keep using loan volume to offset a falling spread: Mexico contributed €1,514 million of the Group's €3,062 million second-quarter profit, yet the peso customer spread has slipped from 11.98% in 3Q25 to 11.61%, so whether third-quarter net interest income rises again from €3,247 million and the cost of risk stays inside 335 basis points is a direct test of the guidance raised in July[3][4]. The second is whether Spain's customer spread has really bottomed: management said in July that the spread has bottomed and will improve every quarter[4], but the move from 2.80% to 2.85% is a small step and deposit cost is holding at 0.58%; a third-quarter spread back at 2.88% or higher would support the claim, while a fall below 2.82% would refute it[3]. The third is the pressure on Turkey and capital at the same time: the Turkish lira customer spread collapsed to 0.38% in the second quarter and the year-to-date cost of risk of 236 basis points sits above the new guidance, while the Group announced another €2 billion buyback on top of a 12.90% CET1 ratio in June, so whether the capital ratio holds at the end of September sets the pace at which capital above 12% keeps flowing back to shareholders[3][7].

Company Background and Business Structure

BBVA is a multinational bank built on scale in Spain and Mexico, with several emerging-market businesses layered on top. It reports in euros under IFRS and files an annual report on Form 20-F with the US Securities and Exchange Commission; its FY2025 20-F, filed on February 20, 2026, reports profit attributable to owners of the parent of €10,511 million[1]. BBVA's 2024-2025 exchange offer for Banco Sabadell lapsed in October 2025 after acceptances fell short of the minimum condition, after which the bank returned to large share buybacks[1].

The bank reports five operating segments plus a Corporate Center. Spain covers domestic banking, insurance and asset management and earned €1,077 million of net attributable profit in 2Q26 on net interest income of €1,689 million; Mexico, which is BBVA Mexico, earned €1,514 million on net interest income of €3,247 million at constant exchange rates and is the Group's largest profit pool; Turkey, which is Garanti BBVA, earned €269 million on net interest income of €1,031 million after a €229 million hyperinflation net monetary position loss[3]. South America (Argentina, Colombia, Peru and smaller units) earned €308 million in 2Q26; Rest of Business, mainly corporate and investment banking (CIB) in the US, Europe and Asia plus the digital banks in Italy and Germany, earned €271 million with lending up 52.5% year on year; and the Corporate Center, which carries head-office costs, currency hedging and goodwill, lost €391 million[3].

Revenue and assets show a Group whose balance sheet sits mostly in Spain while its profit comes mostly from Mexico. In FY2025, segment gross income was €15,198 million in Mexico, €10,027 million in Spain, €5,363 million in South America and €5,213 million in Turkey[1]. At June 30, 2026, total assets were €965,426 million, of which Spain €525,713 million, Mexico €202,938 million, Turkey €98,885 million, South America €86,471 million and Rest of Business €118,016 million; of €522,544 million of gross credit risk exposure, Mexico accounted for €112,176 million[7]. Turkey has been treated as a hyperinflationary economy since 2022, so Garanti BBVA's results are restated under IAS 29, with the net monetary position loss recorded in other operating expense and partly offset by the revaluation of inflation-linked bonds[1]; Garanti BBVA has also agreed to sell its subsidiary in Romania[7].

Financial History and Current Position

BBVA's annual profit roughly doubled over four years, although growth slowed clearly in 2025. Profit attributable to the parent rose from €4,653 million in FY2021 to €6,358 million in FY2022, €8,019 million in FY2023, €10,054 million in FY2024 and €10,511 million in FY2025[1]. Group net interest income grew from €23,089 million in FY2023 to €25,267 million in FY2024 and €26,280 million in FY2025, and loans and advances to customers had a carrying amount of €460,401 million at the end of 2025, of which €6,361 million was in Stage 3 (credit-impaired)[1].

2026 started clearly faster than 2025. First-quarter net attributable profit was €2,989 million, up 14.1% year on year at constant exchange rates (10.8% in current euros), on net interest income of €7,537 million, net fees of €2,256 million, net trading income of €915 million, gross income of €10,652 million, operating expenses of €4,049 million and impairments on financial assets of €1,820 million[5]. Second-quarter net attributable profit was €3,062 million; net interest income rose 2.1% sequentially to €7,627 million and net fees were €2,316 million, but net trading income fell 35.8% sequentially at constant rates to €582 million, which left gross income of €10,506 million 0.2% below the first quarter; operating expenses were €3,951 million, loan impairments €1,677 million and income before tax €4,859 million[3]. For the half, ROTE was 22.2% and ROE 21.1%, the cumulative cost of risk was 1.43% (1.54% after the first quarter), the NPL ratio was 2.6% and NPL coverage was 85%[3].

Capital and shareholder distributions are the fastest-moving part of the current position. CET1 rose from 12.70% at the end of 2025 to 12.83% in March and 12.90% in June, far above the 8.98% regulatory requirement and above the bank's 11.5%-12% management target range[5][7]. BBVA announced a buyback framework of up to €3,960 million on December 19, 2025, completed tranches of €1,500 million and €1,000 million in the first half and announced a third tranche of up to €1,460 million on April 30; on July 30, with ECB authorization, it approved a new €2,000 million framework whose first €1,000 million tranche started on August 5 and is to be completed no earlier than September 14 and no later than October 9; total cash distributions for FY2025 were €0.92 gross per share[7].

Operating Model

BBVA's revenue comes mainly from the deposit-loan spread in each country, and the spread direction together with loan growth sets net interest income. In each country, net interest income is roughly performing loans times the loan yield, less customer deposits times the deposit cost, plus income from the ALCO securities portfolio; customers buy mortgages, consumer loans, credit cards, SME and corporate loans and keep transactional balances with the bank[3]. Of the Group's €7,627 million of net interest income in 2Q26, Mexico contributed €3,247 million at constant exchange rates on a peso customer spread of 11.61%, Spain €1,689 million on a customer spread of 2.85%, and Turkey €1,031 million on a lira customer spread of 0.38%[3]. Management said Spain's low deposit cost rests on steadily acquiring new retail and SME customers, 70% of whom become highly engaged within six months; net fees of €2,316 million come mainly from payments and cards, asset management and CIB, while net trading income of €582 million comes from Global Markets and currency hedges and is volatile[4][3].

Profit flows from gross income less costs, then less credit costs and hyperinflation adjustments. In 2Q26, gross income of €10,506 million less operating expenses of €3,951 million gave operating income of about €6,555 million, a cost-to-income ratio of about 38%; costs are mainly staff, technology and branches, and management targets positive jaws, meaning revenue growth above cost growth, in every country[3][4]. Loan impairments are roughly the cost of risk times average loans: the Group's cumulative cost of risk was 1.43% in the first half, but it was 326 basis points in Mexico and 236 in Turkey because those books are weighted toward consumer loans and cards, against full-year guidance in the low 30s of basis points for Spain[3][4]. Turkey's profit is further reduced by the IAS 29 net monetary position loss (€229 million in 2Q26), partly offset by €151 million of CPI-linker revenue, before tax and the minority interests in Garanti and South America[3].

For a bank the cash cycle is funding and capital, and capital determines how much profit can return to shareholders. Customer deposits fund local loans in each country, and Spain's 0.58% deposit cost is far below its 3.43% loan yield[3]. Earnings accumulate as CET1 capital while loan growth and dividends consume it; the bank distributes everything above 12% and expects 30-40 basis points a year of organic capital generation after loan growth and significant risk transfer (SRT) transactions, with 2026 on track for the higher end of that range[4]. BBVA reports quarterly but gives no quarterly guidance and no segment yields by product, so the effects of loan mix and pricing cannot be fully separated; Mexico results are tracked at constant exchange rates, so the euro value of that profit also depends on the peso[3].

Industry and Competitive Position

BBVA is one of Europe's largest and most profitable banks, and its advantage rests on scale and efficiency in Spain and Mexico. It reported a ROTE of 22.2% for the first half and raised its full-year guidance to around 21%[3][4]; according to BBVA, the Group's first-half efficiency ratio excluding non-recurring items was 37.8% and Mexico's was 30.8%, and the bank reports consistent market-share gains in high-margin consumer, card and enterprise lending in both markets[3]. Management also said CIB earns a 24% risk-adjusted return on capital (RORAC) excluding Turkey and Argentina, that direct AI-related lending exposure is €700-800 million, that more than 100,000 employees use bank-governed AI tools, and that full details of its AI strategy will be shared at the BBVA Strategic Talks on October 6, 2026[4].

What sets BBVA apart is that it carries interest-rate and currency risk in Mexico, Turkey and South America, which is the biggest difference from a domestically focused European bank. In Mexico it faces digital banks and new full-service entrants, including Nubank with its new full banking license; management said it is not concerned, yet it lists fintech and new-entrant competition among its risks[4]. The available material describes competitors only qualitatively and carries no peer spreads, cost of risk or capital ratios for item-by-item comparison, so judgments about share and efficiency advantages rest mainly on BBVA's own disclosures[3].

Core Debates

Can BBVA Mexico, which earns about half of Group profit, keep net interest income rising in the third quarter through consumer, card and SME lending while Banxico cuts narrow the peso customer spread, and keep the cost of risk inside 335 basis points?

Mexico is the Group's single largest source of profit, so its quarterly performance nearly sets the direction of Group earnings. In 2Q26 Mexico produced €1,514 million of the Group's €3,062 million net attributable profit, and €2,979 million of €6,051 million in the first half; its net interest income of €3,247 million at constant exchange rates is the largest single revenue line in the Group[3]. On July 31 management raised Mexico's 2026 net interest income guidance to high single-digit growth, alongside around 10% loan growth and a cost of risk below 335 basis points, so the third quarter directly tests guidance that was just raised[4].

The evidence so far shows loan volume still outrunning spread compression. In 2Q26 Mexico net interest income grew 8.9% year on year and 2.7% sequentially at constant rates, while the peso customer spread fell from 11.98% in 3Q25 to 11.61%, the loan yield fell from 14.42% to 13.84% and the year-to-date cost of risk was 326 basis points[3]. The transmission runs from peso loan growth multiplied by a customer spread that is drifting down, which sets Mexico net interest income; impairments at a cost of risk of about 3.3% (€829 million in 2Q26) are then the largest deduction before Mexico's €1,514 million of quarterly profit[3]. The alternative reading is that growth is being bought in the highest-risk segments: consumer and card loans carry both the highest yields and the highest losses, so volume can offset spread compression for several quarters before seasoning shows up in impairments, and new full-service competitors such as Nubank target the same customers[4].

What remains unresolved is whether spread compression and rising credit costs arrive at the same time. On the first-quarter call management said it saw no deterioration in credit cards and that deposit growth came from time deposits and the corporate side[8]; but Banxico had already cut its policy rate to 6.75% by the end of the first quarter of 2026, and rate cuts tend to reprice loans faster than deposits[5]. In addition, even when constant-currency results are on plan, a weaker peso lowers the euro value of Mexico's profit[3].

Four numbers matter in the third quarter: whether Mexico net interest income rises again from €3,247 million at constant exchange rates; how far the peso customer spread falls from 11.61% and whether deposit cost falls with it; whether the year-to-date cost of risk stays at or below 330 basis points; and whether management repeats its around-10% loan growth and high single-digit net interest income guidance[3][4]. A quarterly spread fall of more than 25 basis points would falsify the volume-offset reading, and a cost of risk above 335 basis points would show the fast-grown consumer and card loans entering their loss phase[3].

Management said in July that Spain's customer spread has bottomed and will improve every quarter. Does it get back to 2.88% or higher in the third quarter, and does deposit cost hold near 0.58% while time deposits grow fast?

Spain's profit now depends almost entirely on net interest income, because other revenue is weakening while costs are accelerating. Spain is BBVA's home market and second-largest profit pool, with €2,172 million of net attributable profit in the first half of 2026; its second-quarter profit fell 3.0% year on year as trading income dropped, while management guides full-year expense growth to mid-to-high single digits[3][4]. Management stated publicly in July that the spread has bottomed, a specific claim that a single quarter can check[4].

The data so far show only a small recovery. The Spain customer spread fell from 3.05% in 2Q25 to 2.80% in 4Q25, then rose to 2.82% and 2.85% in the first two quarters of 2026, while deposit cost held at 0.58%; second-quarter net interest income grew 4.5% year on year and 2.0% sequentially, with lending up 7.4% and customer funds up 10.2%, including time deposits up 36.7%[3]. The transmission is that Spain net interest income equals loan volume times loan yield less deposits times deposit cost; with lending up 7.4% and the spread at 2.85%, the spread direction decides whether €1,689 million of quarterly net interest income keeps growing within the low-to-mid single-digit full-year guidance, which in turn supports Spain's €1,077 million of quarterly profit[3][4].

The alternative reading is that the small rise reflects mix rather than pricing: faster consumer and card growth lifts the average yield without any turn in loan pricing, and time deposits up 36.7% year on year will eventually lift deposit cost, so the spread could stall near 2.85% even with no further ECB cuts[3]. The ECB deposit rate was 2.0% at the end of the first quarter of 2026[5], so the spread's next moves depend more on the bank's own asset mix and funding pricing than on the policy rate.

In the third quarter, watch whether the Spain customer spread reaches 2.88% or stays near 2.85%, whether deposit cost stays at or below 0.60%, whether net interest income rises again from €1,689 million, and whether lending growth stays above 6% year on year[3]. A spread back below 2.82% would falsify management's bottoming claim; if deposit cost rises with fast time-deposit growth and absorbs the loan-yield gain, it would show funding cost offsetting the improvement on the asset side[3][4].

After the Turkish lira customer spread fell from 2.02% to 0.38% in the second quarter, does Garanti BBVA's spread recover in the third quarter, and can it hold the cost of risk to the raised guidance of about 220 basis points?

Turkey is the segment where BBVA has already moved guidance the wrong way twice this year, so a third move would be the clearest negative surprise available this quarter. Turkey contributed €532 million of net attributable profit in the first half and management expects around €1 billion for the year, which already implies a weaker second half[4]; in April the outlook page flagged a downward bias to Turkey's profit, and in July cost-of-risk guidance was raised from 200 basis points to around 220[5][4]. Management gives no formal Turkey net interest income guidance because forecast uncertainty is too high, and its target for exiting hyperinflation accounting remains 2028[4].

The second-quarter numbers show the spread collapse was driven mainly by deposit repricing, while fees and the hyperinflation adjustment partly cushioned profit. The lira customer spread fell from 2.02% in the first quarter to 0.38% (1.00% in 3Q25), and Turkey net interest income fell 8.0% sequentially to €1,031 million because deposits repriced faster than loans in a higher-rate environment; net fees rose 12.9% sequentially to €638 million[3]. The year-to-date cost of risk was 236 basis points, above the new guidance of around 220, reflecting elevated provisioning in lira retail portfolios; in the first quarter Turkey earned €263 million at a cost of risk of 253 basis points, when management still said cost of risk was converging to 200 basis points[3][8]. Even so, profit rose 2.5% sequentially to €269 million in the second quarter because the hyperinflation charge was smaller[3].

The profit chain is longer than in other segments and more easily distorted by accounting. Lira loans times a spread that swings with deposit repricing set most of Turkey's net interest income; after that, a €229 million net monetary position loss (against €151 million of inflation-linked bond revenue) and €333 million of impairments turn it into €269 million of quarterly profit[3]. The alternative reading is that 2Q26 may be the trough of this rate shock: lira spreads have recovered sharply in past Turkish easing phases, and management's around-€1 billion full-year expectation already assumes a weaker second half, so a flat third quarter would be in line rather than a new miss[4]; the first-quarter call also flagged geopolitical shocks such as the war in Iran for Turkey, and a post-model adjustment of around €100 million falling mainly on Spain and Turkey[8].

In the third quarter, watch whether the lira customer spread recovers from 0.38%, whether Turkey net interest income stops falling from €1,031 million, whether the year-to-date cost of risk moves down from 236 basis points toward 220, and whether quarterly profit stays at or above about €235 million[3][4]. A spread back above 1.0% together with a year-to-date cost of risk of 230 basis points or less would weaken the reading of Turkey as a persistent drag; conversely, if Turkish rates stay higher for longer, the spread stays compressed and retail provisioning stays elevated, and hyperinflation accounting will keep quarterly profit swinging with the inflation print, detached from the operating business[3][1].

After deducting the €2 billion buyback announced in July, can BBVA keep its CET1 ratio near 12.9% at the end of the third quarter while corporate and investment banking loans grow more than 50% a year?

The slice of CET1 above 12% determines how much BBVA can return to shareholders, so the third-quarter capital ratio is the direct test of whether the buyback pace is sustainable. BBVA has committed to distribute all capital above a 12% CET1 ratio, has repurchased nearly €4 billion of shares since December 2025 and announced another €2 billion in July[7][4]. CET1 was 12.90% at the end of June, and the 90 basis points above the 12% threshold are what fund buybacks, while the Group grows its loan book faster than European peers[7].

So far the capital ratio has kept rising during heavy buybacks, but not only because of organic earnings. CET1 rose from 12.70% at the end of 2025 to 12.83% in March and 12.90% in June while the €3,960 million programme was still being executed, against a regulatory requirement of 8.98%[5][7]. Rest of Business lending grew 52.5% year on year and its second-quarter profit rose to €271 million with a cost of risk of 0.14%[3]; in the first quarter management had already raised that segment's 2026 guidance to loan and gross income growth above 30% with a cost of risk around 20 basis points, and said SRTs were on track for 30-40 basis points[8][5].

The transmission is that about €3 billion of quarterly earnings adds roughly 60 basis points of CET1 before distributions; after dividend accrual, AT1 coupons and organic risk-weighted asset growth, increasingly from CIB lending in the US, Europe and Asia, about 30-40 basis points a year of organic generation remains, and anything above 12% is returned through buybacks, so the CET1 path decides how much profit reaches shareholders through a shrinking share count[4][7]. The alternative reading is that CET1 has been helped by significant risk transfers and favourable market effects, not only organic accumulation; a quarter with less SRT activity or a weaker peso could show a lower ratio without any change in the underlying business[4][8].

In the third quarter, watch whether CET1 at September 30 stays at or above 12.5% after the new buyback deduction, whether Group net attributable profit holds at or above €3,062 million, whether Rest of Business loans keep growing above 40% with cost of risk below 30 basis points, and whether the first €1 billion buyback tranche completes by October 9 and a second is announced[7][3]. If risk-weighted asset growth from CIB lending outpaces the capital that earnings generate, or if moves in the peso, lira and dollar lower both reported profit and CET1 at the same time, the excess capital available for buybacks would narrow[7][4].

Risks and Falsifiers

Currency is the first risk and runs through every segment. BBVA reports in euros but earns most of its profit in pesos, lira and Latin American currencies, so currency moves change reported profit and CET1 even when local results are on plan; in the first half Mexico produced €2,979 million of the Group's €6,051 million profit at constant exchange rates, and Turkey and South America added €1,088 million in current euros[3][7]. If third-quarter profit in current euros grows roughly in line with constant-currency growth and there is no material negative currency effect on CET1, this risk has not materialized[3].

The second risk is that Mexico's fast-growing consumer and card loans season into higher losses, so the volume that offsets spread compression is later paid back in impairments. Mexico impairments were €829 million in 2Q26 at a year-to-date cost of risk of 326 basis points; on Mexico's roughly €112,176 million of gross credit exposure, each 10 basis points of cost of risk is about €110 million a year of impairments[3][7]. If the year-to-date cost of risk stays at or below 330 basis points in 3Q26 and management reports no deterioration in cards, the current volume-offset understanding still holds[3][4].

The third risk is that Spain's earnings depend on net interest income outrunning costs, while guidance itself has costs growing faster than income. Full-year expense guidance is mid-to-high single-digit growth while net interest income guidance is only low-to-mid single-digit growth; in 2Q26 Spain operating expenses were €835 million, up 10.9% year on year, and operating income fell 3.6% to €1,658 million[4][3]. If the spread stalls, Spain's operating income keeps shrinking; if Spain net interest income growth in 3Q26 matches or exceeds expense growth year on year, this risk is falsified[3].

The fourth risk is that Turkish rates stay higher for longer, so lira deposits keep repricing faster than loans while retail credit losses stay elevated. Turkey net interest income was €1,031 million in 2Q26, down 8.0% sequentially, impairments were €333 million, and the year-to-date cost of risk of 236 basis points is above the around-220 guidance[3][4]. If the lira spread recovers above 1.0% and the year-to-date cost of risk falls to 230 basis points or below in 3Q26, this risk is falsified[3].

The fifth risk is that rapid CIB lending growth in the US, Europe and Asia consumes risk-weighted assets faster than it adds earnings, reducing the capital above 12% available for buybacks. Rest of Business loans grew 52.5% year on year to June 2026 while the segment earned €271 million in 2Q26, and the Group's CET1 was 12.90%, 90 basis points above the 12% distribution threshold[3][7]. If CET1 stays at or above 12.5% after the buyback deduction and management reaffirms 30-40 basis points of organic generation, this risk has not materialized[7][4].

What to Watch Next

• Mexico volume versus spread: net interest income at constant exchange rates was €3,247 million in 2Q26[3]; a sequential rise with a quarterly peso-spread fall of no more than 25 basis points confirms the reading.
• Mexico credit: the year-to-date cost of risk was 326 basis points for the first half[3]; holding at or below 330 confirms, while a break above 335 falsifies.
• Spain spread bottom: the customer spread was 2.85% and deposit cost 0.58% in 2Q26[3]; watch for a spread back at 2.88% with deposit cost no higher than 0.60%, while a spread below 2.82% falsifies.
• Turkey spread and provisions: the lira spread was 0.38% and the year-to-date cost of risk 236 basis points in 2Q26[3]; a spread above 1.0% with cost of risk at 230 basis points or less would mark improvement.
• Capital and buybacks: CET1 was 12.90% at the end of June[7]; a ratio of at least 12.5% after the new €2 billion buyback, with 30-40 basis points of organic generation reaffirmed, confirms.
• Capital and buybacks: Group quarterly net attributable profit was €3,062 million in 2Q26[3]; a clearly lower figure would compress room for buybacks.

Conclusion

BBVA's earnings run on two engines: Mexico contributes about half of profit through high-spread consumer and card lending, Spain provides the second-largest profit pool through low-cost deposits and steady loan growth, and Turkey, South America and the fast-expanding CIB business add volatility and growth beyond those two. In the latest quarter, 2Q26, Group net attributable profit was €3,062 million, first-half ROTE was 22.2% and CET1 was 12.90% at the end of June, leaving the bank well capitalized and more profitable than European peers[3][7]. The central unresolved relationship is whether loan growth in Mexico and Spain can keep lifting net interest income while the spread falls in one market and only edges up in the other, while Turkey's spread and provisions stop dragging and CIB expansion does not consume the excess capital that buybacks need.

Outside interpretations published after the second-quarter results broadly agree that Mexico is the main engine, but differ on whether that can last. Reuters reporter Jesús Aguado read the quarter as a profitability upgrade led by Mexico and South America: second-quarter net profit of €3.06 billion beat the analyst expectation of €2.96 billion, the ROTE target was nudged to around 21% and Mexico's net interest income guidance was raised, while Spain's profit fell 3% on lower trading income and Turkey's full-year profit expectation stayed at around €1 billion[9]. That reading supports the Mexico volume-over-spread baseline and treats Spain and Turkey as secondary drags. Simply Wall St, in a September 26 analysis, framed the case as Mexico's heavy lifting offsetting Turkey's volatility and argued that fintech disruption in Mexico could be underestimated, with cautious analysts forecasting earnings materially below the broader market view[10]. Both put Mexico at the center; they differ in that the first treats Mexican growth as an advantage already confirmed by raised guidance, while the second treats it as growth exposed to new entrants and still to be proven. Both are outside interpretations, not facts that have already occurred.

The current understanding would be materially strengthened if the third-quarter report shows this combination: Mexico net interest income rising again sequentially at constant exchange rates, a quarterly peso-spread fall of no more than 25 basis points and a year-to-date cost of risk inside 330 basis points; a Spain customer spread back at 2.88% or higher with deposit cost no higher than 0.60%; a recovering Turkish spread with cost of risk moving toward 220 basis points; and a September CET1 of at least 12.5% after the new buyback. Conversely, a Mexico cost of risk above 335 basis points, a Spain spread back below 2.82%, another cut to Turkey guidance, or a clear fall in CET1 driven by CIB asset growth and currency moves would materially weaken it[3][4].

Sources

[1] BBVA 20-F filed 2026-02-20 · 2026-02-20 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842180/000162828026010001/bbva-20251231.htm

[2] Drillr earning_call_calendar entry for BBVA, scheduled 2026-10-29, calendar last updated 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-30 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] BBVA 2Q26 earnings release and presentation 6-K furnished 2026-07-30 · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.bbva.com/en/economy-and-finance/earnings-2q2026/

[4] BBVA Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-31 · 2026-07-31 · earnings_call · https://www.bbva.com/en/economy-and-finance/earnings-2q2026/

[5] BBVA 1Q26 earnings release and presentation 6-K furnished 2026-04-30 · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000842180&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[6] BBVA investor relations, "Analysts consensus", data updated 2026-09-09 · 2026-09-09 · BBVA-compiled consensus of 18 analysts · https://shareholdersandinvestors.bbva.com/the-share/equity-analysts/analysts-consensus/

[7] BBVA 2Q26 interim financial report 6-K furnished 2026-07-31 · 2026-07-31 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000842180&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[8] BBVA Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-30 · 2026-04-30 · earnings_call · https://www.bbva.com/en/economy-and-finance/results/

[9] Reuters, "BBVA lifts group's profitability outlook for 2026 on Mexico and South America", 2026-07-30 · 2026-07-30 · Reuters · https://www.aol.com/articles/bbvas-q2-net-profit-rises-051209000.html

[10] Simply Wall St, "Mexico Growth Outlook Might Change The Case For Investing In BBVA Stock", 2026-09-26 · 2026-09-26 · Simply Wall St · https://simplywall.st/stocks/es/banks/bme-bbva/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentaria-shares/news/mexico-growth-outlook-might-change-the-case-for-investing-in