[SPGI] S&P Global: Q3 2026 Earnings Test for Ratings After the AI Bond Boom

S&P Global, which sells credit ratings, indices, benchmark prices and financial data to capital and energy markets, is scheduled to hold its earnings call on 2026-10-29 according to the Drillr earnings calendar, reporting results for the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026; the exact date is subject to the company's own announcement[1]. Excluding Mobility, the automotive data business it has spun off, S&P Global's latest disclosed quarter, the second quarter of 2026, brought revenue of $3.678 billion, up 11% year over year, adjusted operating profit of $1.998 billion at a 54.3% margin, and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.83, up 23%[2][3][4]. The company gives no quarterly guidance; its full-year 2026 outlook calls for revenue growth of 5.9% to 7.9% and adjusted EPS of $17.50 to $17.75[5]. After subtracting first-half revenue of $7.397 billion and adjusted EPS of $9.27, that range implies second-half revenue growth of roughly 1.1% to 5.1% and second-half adjusted EPS of about $8.23 to $8.48[6][7]. In the Drillr compilation, the consensus of 12 analysts for third-quarter revenue is $3.635 billion and the consensus of 14 analysts for adjusted EPS is $4.43, about 5.6% and 5.5% above the comparable third-quarter 2025 figures of $3.443 billion and $4.20, so the revenue estimate sits above the top of the second-half growth range implied by guidance[8][9][7].

Three things matter most in this S&P Global Q3 2026 earnings report. First, can ratings revenue keep growing against a high base? Second-quarter ratings revenue was $1.339 billion, up 17%, driven mainly by investment-grade issuance for AI infrastructure and M&A, but the $1.240 billion booked in the third quarter of 2025 was last year's strongest ratings quarter, and the CFO warned in September that the year-over-year comparison will "flip" in the second half[10][11][12]. Second, how much will index revenue slow? Average assets in ETFs tracking S&P indices rose 38% while asset-linked fees rose only 22%, and full-year guidance of 12% to 14% implies second-half growth of about 6% to 10%, so the third quarter will show whether asset growth can still offset lower fee rates[13][14][15]. Third, can the two subscription businesses, Market Intelligence (MI) and Energy, hold steady? MI subscription revenue grew 6% in the second quarter, but large clients are renegotiating contracts over AI data use and renewal cycles have lengthened; Energy revenue grew only 3%, below its full-year guidance of 4.5% to 6%, and needs to reaccelerate in the second half for that guidance to hold[16].

Company Background and Business Structure

S&P Global is a financial information company built around benchmarks and data, and after a July 2026 spin-off it operates four divisions. The company was incorporated in New York in 1925, describes itself as a provider of benchmarks, data, analytics and workflow solutions for capital, energy and commodity markets, and had about 44,500 permanent employees at the end of 2025, roughly 26,200 of them in Asia[17][18]. Its automotive data business, Mobility, was spun off on July 1, 2026 as the separately listed Mobility Global (NYSE: MBGL); on July 6 the company published recast 2025 quarterly figures that exclude Mobility and move 451 Research and Maritime & Trade data from MI into Energy, and all division comparisons since then use that basis[2][19][20]. In January 2026 the company sold MI's Enterprise Data Management and thinkFolio businesses to private equity firm STG for a pre-tax gain of $172 million, and in April it announced the sale of the geoscience and petroleum engineering software portfolio in Energy's upstream software business[21][22].

Ratings and Indices generate less than half of revenue but about 60% of profit, which is why they set the direction of the company's overall margin. On the recast basis excluding Mobility, 2025 revenue was $13.589 billion: Ratings brought in $4.724 billion, or 34%, at a 65% adjusted operating margin; MI $4.690 billion, or 34%, at 33%; Energy $2.525 billion, or 18%, at 46%; and Indices $1.850 billion, or 13%, at 70%[9][23][19]. Ratings and Indices together contributed about 61% of adjusted segment operating profit (43% plus 18%), while MI and Energy together contributed about 38%[19].

The Ratings business is paid by issuers, and its revenue splits into transaction revenue that moves with debt issuance and more stable non-transaction revenue. In 2025, transaction revenue was $2.470 billion, or 52% of Ratings revenue, coming from fees on newly issued corporate, government, structured finance and bank loan ratings; non-transaction revenue was $2.254 billion, or 48%, coming from surveillance fees on existing ratings, annual fees under relationship-based pricing, entity ratings and research and analytics at the Crisil subsidiary[24][25]. By issuer type, corporates account for 53% of Ratings revenue, financials 16%, structured finance 13%, governments 7% and Crisil and other 12%[19]. At Indices (S&P Dow Jones Indices), 65% of revenue comes from asset-linked fees on ETFs, mutual funds and other products that track its indices, 18% from royalties on exchange-traded futures and options volumes, and 17% from data and custom index subscriptions; the business has outside minority shareholders, and net income attributable to them was $322 million in 2025[26][27].

Energy and MI are mostly subscription businesses serving energy traders and producers as well as asset managers, investment banks, private equity firms, banks and corporations. Energy has two business lines, Platts and CERA, which accounted for 49% and 51% of recast 2025 revenue: Platts publishes benchmark prices and forward curves for crude oil, refined products and other commodities, with clients paying subscriptions and exchanges paying royalties on the volume of contracts settled against Platts prices, while CERA covers energy and resources data and research, upstream data, 451 Research, Maritime & Trade data and conferences such as CERAWeek[20][28]. MI is split into Kensho Data & Platforms, its data and desktop business (60% of recast 2025 revenue), and Enterprise Solutions, its workflow software business (40%); the former includes Compustat, the Kensho LLM-Ready API built for large language models, Capital IQ and Visible Alpha, and the latter includes the syndicated loan settlement tool ClearPar, equity and debt bookbuilding, and pricing and reference data[29][30]. On the recast quarterly figures, about 83% of 2025 MI revenue came from subscriptions; by geography, 61% of 2025 reported revenue including Mobility came from the United States and 39% from outside it[29][31].

Financial History and Current Position

On a reported basis including Mobility, revenue and profit both grew over the past three years, and the margin rose faster. Revenue increased from $12.497 billion in 2023 to $14.208 billion in 2024 (+14%) and $15.336 billion in 2025 (+8%); operating profit rose from $4.020 billion in 2023 (a 32% margin that included merger-related costs) to $5.580 billion in 2024 (39%) and $6.478 billion in 2025 (42%)[32]. Diluted EPS was $14.66 in 2025, up 19%, and in January 2026 the board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.97 per share[32].

The company generates a lot of cash and spends very little on capital projects. Operating cash flow was $5.651 billion in 2025 and capital expenditures were $195 million, leaving free cash flow after capital spending and distributions to minority holders of $5.135 billion, slightly below $5.278 billion in 2024[33]. At the end of 2025, total debt was $13.088 billion and remaining performance obligations were $5.9 billion, about half of which the company expected to recognize as revenue over the following 12 months[34][35].

Excluding Mobility, the third quarter of 2025 is the comparison base for the coming report. On the basis published on July 6, 2025 revenue was $13.589 billion, adjusted operating profit was $6.974 billion (a margin of about 51.3%) and adjusted diluted EPS was $15.85; the third quarter alone brought revenue of $3.443 billion, adjusted operating profit of $1.819 billion (about 52.8%) and adjusted EPS of $4.20[9][36][7]. On the same basis, first-half 2026 revenue was $7.397 billion (+11%), adjusted operating profit was $3.964 billion (+14%) and adjusted EPS was $9.27 (+19%); within that, second-quarter revenue was $3.678 billion (+11%), adjusted operating profit $1.998 billion (+15%) and adjusted EPS $4.83 (+23%)[6][3][4].

At the end of June 2026, the balance sheet still carried debt that Mobility issued before the spin-off. First-half operating cash flow including Mobility was $2.476 billion and free cash flow was $2.249 billion, and the company repurchased $1.5 billion of stock over the period[37][38]. At June 30, cash was $4.141 billion, short-term debt $2.572 billion and long-term debt $12.598 billion, including $2 billion of notes that Mobility Global issued in May and assumed alone after the spin-off[39][40]. Unearned revenue fell from $4.088 billion at the end of 2025 to $3.929 billion, and remaining performance obligations stood at $5.8 billion at the end of June[39][41].

Operating Model

Revenue can be broken into a driver equation for each of the four divisions: Ratings and Indices move directly with capital-market activity, while Energy and MI move mainly with subscription contracts. Ratings revenue equals transaction revenue plus non-transaction revenue, and transaction revenue is roughly billed issuance multiplied by the rating fee per unit of issuance, recognized in the quarter the debt is issued; billed issuance excludes issuance that does not affect transaction revenue, such as frequent issuer programs and unrated debt, and it was $4.33 trillion in 2025 and $1.27 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, up 25%, when transaction revenue was $746 million, up 25%, and non-transaction revenue was $593 million, up 8%[42][10][14]. Index revenue equals asset-linked fees (assets tracking the indices multiplied by a basis-point fee, $348 million in the second quarter, +22%) plus derivatives royalties (which follow futures and options volumes, $99 million, +22%) plus data subscriptions ($87 million, +9%), and with average ETF assets up 38% in the quarter, asset-linked fees grew more slowly than assets[14][13]. Energy revenue is mostly subscriptions, which were $569 million in the second quarter, up 4%, with exchange royalties of $27 million, down 9%; MI revenue consists of subscriptions ($1.025 billion, +6%, recognized over the contract term based on annual contract value, or ACV, so renewal changes take several quarters to show up fully) and recurring variable revenue billed on transaction counts, assets or positions ($173 million, +9%)[14].

The company has no physical cost of goods, so its overall margin is set mainly by revenue mix. Its main costs are pay for analysts, data operations and technology staff, data and technology spending, and amortization of acquired intangibles, which is about $785 million in 2026 and is excluded from adjusted results[5]. Costs at Ratings and Indices are largely fixed, so most incremental revenue falls to profit: in the second quarter the adjusted margin was 68% at Ratings (65% a year earlier), 72% at Indices (71% a year earlier), 48% at Energy and 36% at MI[43][3]. When issuance and asset prices lift these two high-margin businesses, the company's overall margin widens with them, reaching 54.3% in the second quarter, up 200 basis points; if Ratings growth weakens in the second half, margin expansion will slow too, and full-year guidance calls for only 35 to 60 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion[44][5].

MI and Energy rely on productivity programs to control costs, and EPS gets an extra lift from buybacks. The company says its Enterprise Data Office will reach $100 million of annualized cost savings by the end of 2027, about 20% of its cost base, with nearly 60% already achieved and the savings reinvested in AI products[45]. Diluted shares fell 3% year over year in the second quarter, which is why adjusted EPS grew faster (+23%) than adjusted net income (+19%)[4].

Cash flow benefits from heavy prepayments and light capital spending, so a high share of profit turns into cash. Subscriptions and annual fees are mostly billed in advance, recorded as unearned revenue and recognized over the contract term, and ratings transaction fees are collected at issuance; capital expenditures were only $195 million in 2025, and 2026 guidance is $190 million to $210 million[33][5]. Capital allocation centers on buybacks: the company raised its 2026 repurchase target to more than $7 billion, funded by free cash flow, about $2 billion paid to the company by Mobility at the spin-off (of which about $500 million goes to debt reduction) and about $2 billion of new debt planned for the second half, and it expects year-end gross leverage of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA, slightly above its 2.0 to 2.5 times target range[38][15].

Industry and Competitive Position

The barrier to entry in ratings comes from regulation and from how investors use ratings, not from price competition. S&P Global Ratings is registered with the US SEC as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO), and its main peer is Moody's; new entrants find it hard to replace established ratings, so competition plays out mostly in newer areas such as private credit and structured products, and private markets ratings revenue rose 60% year over year in the second quarter[46][44]. On volume, billed issuance was $4.33 trillion in 2025 (+11%) and $2.50 trillion in the first half of 2026 (+19%), including $1.16 trillion of investment grade (+33%), which the company attributes to AI infrastructure and data center financing and to M&A; hyperscaler infrastructure issuance reached $169 billion in the first half[42][10][47].

Indices and Platts are both benchmarks that markets use to settle transactions, which makes them hard to replace once adopted, but each faces its own constraints. At the end of June 2026, ETF assets tracking S&P indices were $6.35 trillion (+34%), the first ETF ever to reach $1 trillion in assets tracks the S&P 500, and the company said several asset managers switched to S&P indices in the second quarter[13][47]. Index peers include MSCI and other index providers, and because ETF issuers can switch to cheaper indices, fee pressure is a standing feature of the business[48]. Platts price assessments serve as settlement benchmarks in physical contracts and exchange-traded contracts, but sanctions tied to geopolitical tensions reduced Platts growth by 1.2 percentage points in the second quarter[16].

MI's competitive position is the most exposed to technological change. MI competes with data vendors such as FactSet, and the annual report's risk factors state plainly that more free or inexpensive information could materially reduce demand for the company's products[48][49]; at the same time the company is treating AI as a new distribution channel and says more than 500 clients now access its data through the Kensho LLM-Ready API and MCP[45]. The annual report's performance peer group is Moody's, CME, MSCI, FactSet, Verisk and Intercontinental Exchange, but the available material contains no revenue or share data for these peers by market segment, so changes in the company's competitive position cannot be quantified[48].

Core Debates

Bond issuance to fund AI data centers lifted first-half ratings revenue by 15%. Against last year's strong third-quarter base, can ratings revenue still grow?

Ratings is the company's largest source of profit, and the third quarter is the first test of how long this AI-driven issuance wave can last. Ratings accounts for 34% of revenue excluding Mobility and 43% of adjusted segment profit, with a 68% adjusted margin in the second quarter[19][43]. First-half billed issuance was $2.50 trillion, up 19%, investment grade rose 33% and hyperscaler infrastructure issuance reached $169 billion, yet full-year Ratings revenue guidance is only 5% to 8%, which implies flat or even lower revenue in the second half[10][47][15]. The CFO also warned at the Barclays conference in September that the year-over-year comparison will "flip" in the second half[12].

The evidence for continued growth comes from volumes and contract terms, while the evidence against centers on the comparison base. In the second quarter Ratings revenue rose 17%, transaction revenue 25%, non-transaction revenue 8% and private markets ratings revenue 60%; in July the company raised full-year Ratings guidance by 1 percentage point, in September it lifted its full-year issuance outlook from low single digits to mid-to-high single digits, and it says about $11 trillion of rated debt is due for refinancing over the next 4.5 years[14][44][15][12][47]. On the other side, second-half 2025 billed issuance was about $2.23 trillion, above the $2.10 trillion of the first half, the $1.240 billion of Ratings revenue in the third quarter of 2025 was last year's highest quarter, and the full-year issuance outlook minus the first half implies lower issuance in the second half[42][10][11]. An alternative reading is that first-half growth came mainly from hyperscalers concentrating their financing early in the year, and if credit spreads widen or hyperscalers slow capital spending in the third quarter, transaction revenue would decline year over year[16].

The financial transmission in this debate is direct. AI infrastructure financing, M&A and refinancing of maturing debt drive billed issuance, which is recognized as transaction ratings revenue in the quarter of issuance; surveillance and annual fees on the growing stock of ratings form the steadier non-transaction revenue; and because Ratings costs are largely fixed, most of any revenue change passes straight through to the Ratings margin, the company's overall margin and EPS[50][43]. What remains unresolved is whether the issuance peak has borrowed from the second half: in the third quarter, watch whether Ratings revenue exceeds $1.240 billion, whether billed issuance stays above a year-over-year decline of 8% and investment-grade issuance is still growing, whether non-transaction revenue keeps growing by more than 6%, and whether the company raises or cuts its full-year Ratings guidance of 5% to 8%[11][15]. If third-quarter Ratings revenue falls year over year and the company attributes it to slower issuance, or if the company cuts its full-year Ratings revenue guidance, the view that Ratings can still grow against a high base is falsified.

ETF assets tracking S&P indices rose by more than a third in a year, yet index fees grew only about a fifth. Can index revenue keep growing at double digits in the third quarter?

Indices is the company's highest-margin business, and the third quarter will show how much it slows from second-quarter growth. Second-quarter index revenue was $534 million, up 20%, at a 72% adjusted margin, the 13th consecutive record revenue quarter[6][43][44]. But the company signaled in the first quarter that Indices would slow in the second half, and full-year guidance of 12% to 14% implies second-half growth of about 6% to 10%[51][15]; asset-linked fees are also growing well below asset growth, which means incremental assets carry a lower average fee rate[14][13].

The supporting evidence is that assets, trading and client switching all improved at once, while the opposing evidence lies in fee rates and costs. In the second quarter average ETF assets were $6.05 trillion, up 38%, asset-linked fees rose 22%, derivatives royalties 22% and data subscriptions 9%; the company said several asset managers switched to S&P indices and in July raised full-year guidance by 2 percentage points[13][14][47][15]. On the other side, asset-linked fees grew only about 0.6 times as fast as average assets, index expenses rose 16% in the second quarter, and the third-quarter 2025 revenue base of $462 million is $16 million higher than the second-quarter base[44][11]. An alternative reading is that first-half growth came mainly from rising stock prices and volatility-driven trading rather than new index licensing, and if stocks pull back or volatility fades, asset-linked fees and derivatives royalties would slow together.

This debate runs through two transmission chains. Rising stock prices and fund inflows lift average assets in products tracking S&P indices, which, net of any decline in the average fee rate, produce asset-linked fees; market volatility lifts trading in futures and options on S&P indices, which produces derivatives royalties; and with fixed costs, most index revenue becomes segment profit, though part of it belongs to outside minority shareholders[52][27]. In the third quarter, watch whether index revenue grows at least 6% year over year (the low end that full-year guidance implies for the second half), the gap between average ETF asset growth and asset-linked fee growth, and whether derivatives royalties are still growing[15]. If index revenue grows less than 6%, or asset-linked fees grow less than half as fast as average ETF assets, the current view is falsified.

Clients are renegotiating contracts to use S&P data in their own AI tools. Will that slow subscription growth at Market Intelligence?

MI is one of the two largest divisions and the part of the company that investors most fear generative AI could replace. MI accounts for 34% of revenue excluding Mobility, and the annual report's risk factors warn that the growth of free or inexpensive information could materially reduce demand for the company's products[19][49]. In the second quarter MI revenue of $1.235 billion and subscription revenue of $1.025 billion both grew 6%, but management acknowledged that large clients have lengthened renewal cycles while negotiating AI data use and intellectual property terms, and said annual contract value (ACV) at AI-enabled clients is growing 60% faster than average[6][14][16][45]. Third-quarter subscription growth will show whether the renewal delays are a timing issue or a demand issue.

The evidence on both sides comes from AI itself. On the supporting side, recurring variable revenue grew 9% in the second quarter and MI's adjusted margin reached 36%, up 120 basis points; more than 500 clients use the Kensho LLM-Ready API and MCP connections, second-quarter API call volume was 5 times the first-quarter level, and management says Kensho Data is growing 8% to 11% organically[14][44][45]. On the opposing side, Kensho Data & Platforms grew only 4% organically in the second quarter, Platforms grew only in the low single digits, some smaller consulting and sustainability products weighed on growth, and renewal cycles at large clients lengthened[44][45][16]. An alternative reading is that AI usage is growing through the low-priced API channel while high-priced desktop seats are being replaced, so subscription revenue would slow once the renewal cycle is complete.

The financial transmission in this debate depends on contracts. Renewal rates, price increases and new datasets (including AI data licensing through the LLM-Ready API and MCP) determine annual contract value, and subscription revenue is then recognized over the contract term, so renewal changes take several quarters to show up fully in revenue; transaction counts and position volumes drive recurring variable revenue, and productivity programs and AI cost savings affect the margin[53][54]. The comparison base is third-quarter 2025 MI revenue of $1.183 billion, subscription revenue of $986 million and Kensho Data & Platforms revenue of $712 million[11][29]. In the third quarter, watch whether MI subscription revenue grows at least 5% year over year, whether Kensho Data & Platforms grows faster than the 4% organic rate of the second quarter, and what the company says about large-client renewals and organic ACV, which management put at about 6% on the first-quarter call[55]. If subscription revenue grows less than 5%, or the company cuts its full-year MI guidance or discloses organic ACV growth below 5%, the current view is falsified.

The Middle East conflict and sanctions held energy data growth to 3% in the second quarter. Can it reaccelerate in the second half as the company expects?

The question for Energy is whether the second-quarter slowdown is a temporary effect of the conflict or a sign of weaker subscription demand. Energy accounts for 18% of revenue excluding Mobility, and its second-quarter revenue of $623 million grew only 3% (2% organic at constant currency), below full-year guidance of 4.5% to 6%[19][6][56][15]. Management attributed the slowdown to the Middle East conflict: extreme volatility reduced trading, conference attendance fell, large-client renewals became more complicated, and sanctions also weighed on growth[16]. Because the company kept its full-year guidance, growth needs to return to about 4% to 7% in the second half, and the third quarter is the first test.

The supporting evidence is that subscriptions are still growing and costs are under control, while the opposing evidence centers on trading and renewals. In the second quarter Energy subscription revenue grew 4% and Platts grew 4%, with the company saying clients expanded their use of data and research products under enterprise contracts; expenses rose only 1% and the adjusted margin rose to 47.5%[14][44][57]. On the other side, exchange royalties fell 9%, upstream data and conference revenue declined, and sanctions cut Platts growth by 1.2 percentage points and CERA growth by 0.3 percentage points[57][16]. An alternative reading is that the conflict is affecting subscription renewals, not just trading and conferences, and if renewals are delayed or downgraded, subscription growth would keep slowing in the second half.

The transmission in this debate runs from geopolitical events to the revenue line. The Middle East conflict and sanctions cause extreme price volatility, lower trading activity, weaker conference attendance and more complex renewal negotiations with large clients, which act respectively on Platts subscriptions and exchange royalties and on CERA research subscriptions and conference revenue, ending up in Energy revenue, while cost control determines the Energy margin[16][28]. The comparison base is third-quarter 2025 Energy revenue of $609 million, including $313 million at Platts, and subscription revenue of $556 million[11][20]. In the third quarter, watch whether Energy revenue growth returns to at least 4%, whether Platts grows faster than its second-quarter 4%, and what the company says about subscription growth and large-client renewals. If Energy revenue grows less than 4%, or the company cuts its full-year Energy guidance, the current view is falsified.

Risks and Falsifiers

The capital structure risk is that buybacks exceed free cash flow and depend on spin-off proceeds and new debt, pushing leverage above the target range. The full-year repurchase target is more than $7 billion, the company bought back $1.5 billion in the first half and so needs about $5.5 billion in the second half, while its guidance for second-half adjusted free cash flow is $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion; the gap is covered by about $2 billion paid by Mobility at the spin-off (about $500 million of which goes to debt reduction) and about $2 billion of new debt planned for the second half, with year-end gross leverage expected at 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA[38][15]. If third-quarter free cash flow, buybacks and debt issuance track the plan and the company reaffirms its path back to the target leverage range, this risk eases.

Regulatory and credibility risk is concentrated in the two most profitable businesses. Ratings and Indices are subject to the SEC's NRSRO regime and to EU and UK benchmark regulation, and the SEC can censure an NRSRO or revoke, limit or suspend its registration; Ratings and Indices together account for about 47% of revenue excluding Mobility and about 61% of adjusted segment operating profit, so a ratings failure or compliance problem would damage credibility and bring penalties at the same time[46][19]. If no new regulatory penalty, investigation or major ratings-related lawsuit emerges during the quarter, this risk stays in the background.

A turn in the issuance cycle is the risk with the largest effect on third-quarter margins. If AI infrastructure financing was concentrated in the first half, credit spreads widen or M&A slows, second-half issuance would fall below last year's high base; Ratings transaction revenue was $746 million in the second quarter, costs are largely fixed, and most of any decline in transaction revenue would come straight out of operating profit and weigh on the full-year guidance of 35 to 60 basis points of margin expansion[14][43][5]. If third-quarter billed issuance is flat or higher year over year and Ratings revenue grows at least 5%, this risk is falsified.

A stock market pullback, a shift of assets toward low-fee products or a drop in volatility would depress both asset-linked fees and derivatives royalties at Indices. Asset-linked fees make up 65% of index revenue and were $348 million in the second quarter, and derivatives royalties make up 18%; the index margin is about 70%, so most of any revenue slowdown would come straight out of segment profit, although part of that profit belongs to minority shareholders ($322 million in 2025)[26][14][27]. If average ETF assets grow at least 30% year over year in the third quarter and asset-linked fees grow at least 20%, this risk is falsified.

The risk from AI substitution and renewal price pressure is that renewal delays could turn into real revenue losses. Clients could cut desktop seats, move to low-priced APIs or push prices down in AI data licensing negotiations; MI's recast 2025 revenue was $4.690 billion, about 83% of it subscriptions, and based on second-quarter subscription revenue of $1.025 billion, each 1 percentage point drop in subscription growth removes about $10 million of quarterly revenue, with the effect lasting several quarters because ACV is recognized over the contract term[23][29][14][53]. If third-quarter subscription revenue grows at least 6% and the company reports that renewals were completed as planned, this risk is falsified.

If the Middle East conflict and sanctions persist, they will keep depressing Energy trading activity and conference revenue and delaying large-client renewals. Energy's recast 2025 revenue was $2.525 billion at a 46% adjusted margin; in the second quarter sanctions cut Platts growth by 1.2 percentage points and CERA growth by 0.3 percentage points, and exchange royalties fell 9% year over year[23][16][14]. If third-quarter Energy revenue grows at least 6% and Platts grows at least 5%, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

The four core debates and the cross-cutting capital structure risk reduce to a short checklist for the third-quarter report.

• Ratings against a high base: third-quarter 2025 Ratings revenue was $1.240 billion, and in the second quarter of 2026 billed issuance was $1.27 trillion (+25%) and non-transaction revenue $593 million (+8%)[11][10][14]. Watch whether revenue beats that base, whether issuance stays above an 8% year-over-year decline, whether investment grade still grows and whether non-transaction revenue grows more than 6%; a year-over-year revenue decline attributed to slower issuance, or a cut to the 5% to 8% full-year Ratings guidance, would falsify the current view.
• Double-digit index growth: third-quarter 2025 index revenue was $462 million, and in the second quarter average ETF assets were $6.05 trillion (+38%) and asset-linked fees $348 million (+22%)[11][13][14]. Watch whether revenue grows at least 6%, the gap between fee growth and asset growth, and whether derivatives royalties still grow; growth below 6%, or fee growth less than half of asset growth, would falsify the current view.
• MI subscriptions and AI contract renegotiation: third-quarter 2025 subscription revenue was $986 million, and in the second quarter subscriptions were $1.025 billion (+6%) with Kensho Data & Platforms up 4% organically[29][14][44]. Watch whether subscriptions grow at least 5%, whether organic growth beats 4% and how large-client renewals progress; subscription growth below 5%, a cut to MI guidance or organic ACV growth below 5% would falsify the current view.
• Energy reacceleration: third-quarter 2025 Energy revenue was $609 million, with Platts at $313 million and subscriptions at $556 million, and second-quarter Energy growth was 3%[11][20][6]. Watch whether growth returns to at least 4%, whether Platts beats 4% and what the company says about large-client renewals; growth below 4% or a cut to full-year Energy guidance would falsify the current view.
• Capital structure (cross-cutting risk): second-half adjusted free cash flow guidance is $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion, the full-year buyback target is more than $7 billion and year-end leverage is expected at 2.7 to 2.8 times[15][38]. Watch the pace of third-quarter cash flow, buybacks and debt issuance; tracking the plan and a reaffirmed path back to 2.0 to 2.5 times would ease the risk.

Conclusion

S&P Global runs on two kinds of engines: Ratings and Indices move with issuance, asset prices and trading activity and earned adjusted margins of 68% and 72% in the second quarter, while MI and Energy provide steadier subscription revenue but grow more slowly, at margins of 36% and 48%[43][3]. First-half 2026 revenue excluding Mobility grew 11%, while the company's full-year guidance calls for only 5.9% to 7.9% revenue growth, which implies clearly slower growth in the second half than in the first[6][5]. The central unresolved relationship is how far the high growth from AI infrastructure issuance and rising asset prices can carry into a third quarter with a high comparison base, and whether the subscription businesses at MI and Energy can hold their growth rates through AI contract renegotiations and geopolitical conflict.

Since the second-quarter report, no verifiable independent third-party commentary with a complete argument has been published in this period, so there are no outside views to synthesize here, and scattered recaps of the results are not treated as a shared view. The available judgment rests only on company disclosures, management statements and analyst figures compiled by Drillr: in September management raised its full-year issuance outlook to mid-to-high single digits while warning that the second-half year-over-year comparison will flip[12], and the analyst figures for third-quarter revenue imply growth of about 5.6%, above the top of the second-half range implied by full-year guidance[8]. The gap between those two signals is exactly what the third-quarter report has to resolve.

The combination of later observations matters more than any single metric. If third-quarter Ratings revenue exceeds $1.240 billion, index revenue grows at least 6%, MI subscriptions grow at least 5%, Energy revenue growth returns to 4% or more, and free cash flow and buybacks track the plan, the view that the benchmark businesses can still grow against a high base while the subscription businesses stay steady would be clearly strengthened[11][15]. Conversely, if Ratings revenue declines year over year alongside slower issuance, asset-linked fees grow less than half as fast as ETF assets, MI subscription growth drops below 5%, or the company cuts guidance for any division, that view would be weakened.

Sources

[1] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-09-30) · SPGI 2026-10-29 call · 2026-09-30 · Drillr earnings calendar · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[2] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 results headline · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[3] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Energy, Market Intelligence and consolidated adjusted operating profit · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[4] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 pro forma diluted EPS · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[5] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · FY2026 guidance · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[6] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 recast segment revenue · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[7] SPGI 8-K/A filed 2026-07-06 · pro forma adjusted diluted EPS by quarter · 2026-07-06 · 8-K/A · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-1.htm

[8] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-09-30) · SPGI quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-30 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] SPGI 8-K/A filed 2026-07-06 · pro forma quarterly income statements 2025-1Q26 · 2026-07-06 · 8-K/A · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-1.htm

[10] SPGI 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 billed issuance · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000045/spgi-20260630.htm

[11] SPGI 8-K/A filed 2026-07-06 · Q3 2025 recast segment financials · 2026-07-06 · 8-K/A · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-1.htm

[12] Investing.com transcript 2026-09-14 · S&P Global at Barclays Global Financial Services Conference · 2026-09-14 · Investing.com · https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/sp-global-at-barclays-conference-growth-margins-and-ai-push-93CH-4900064

[13] SPGI 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Indices revenue and ETF AUM · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000045/spgi-20260630.htm

[14] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 pro forma revenue by type · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[15] SPGI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · FY2026 guidance detail · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[16] SPGI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · stated risks · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[17] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · 10-K business overview and divisions · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[18] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · employees · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[19] SPGI 8-K/A filed 2026-07-06 · recast four-division structure and FY2025 mix · 2026-07-06 · 8-K/A · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-1.htm

[20] SPGI 8-K/A filed 2026-07-06 · Energy Platts and CERA recast by quarter · 2026-07-06 · 8-K/A · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-1.htm

[21] SPGI 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Enterprise Data Management and thinkFolio divestiture · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000045/spgi-20260630.htm

[22] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 results headline · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000019/spgi1q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[23] SPGI 8-K/A filed 2026-07-06 · FY2025 recast segment financials · 2026-07-06 · 8-K/A · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-1.htm

[24] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · Ratings FY2025 segment results · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[25] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · Ratings transaction and non-transaction revenue · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[26] SPGI 8-K/A filed 2026-07-06 · Indices business lines · 2026-07-06 · 8-K/A · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-1.htm

[27] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · Indices FY2025 segment results and ETF AUM · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[28] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · Energy business lines and revenue sources · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[29] SPGI 8-K/A filed 2026-07-06 · Market Intelligence business lines recast by quarter · 2026-07-06 · 8-K/A · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-1.htm

[30] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · Market Intelligence business and customers · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[31] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 revenue by type and geography · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[32] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 key results · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[33] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 cash flow and free cash flow · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[34] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · December 31 2025 debt · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[35] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 unearned revenue and remaining performance obligations · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[36] SPGI 8-K/A filed 2026-07-06 · pro forma adjusted operating profit and EPS by quarter · 2026-07-06 · 8-K/A · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-1.htm

[37] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 free cash flow · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[38] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 margins and capital return · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[39] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · June 30 2026 balance sheet and H1 cash flow · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[40] SPGI 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Mobility Global notes and commercial paper · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000045/spgi-20260630.htm

[41] SPGI 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · June 30 2026 remaining performance obligations · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000045/spgi-20260630.htm

[42] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · FY2025 billed issuance · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[43] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Ratings and Indices adjusted operating profit · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[44] SPGI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · segment performance · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[45] SPGI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · AI adoption and Market Intelligence structure · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[46] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · Ratings NRSRO regulation · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[47] SPGI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · benchmark businesses and issuance · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[48] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · performance peer group · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[49] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · risk from free information and AI substitutes · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[50] SPGI 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Ratings revenue drivers · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000045/spgi-20260630.htm

[51] SPGI Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-28 · 2026 guidance cadence · 2026-04-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[52] SPGI 10-K filed 2026-02-11 · Indices revenue sources · 2026-02-11 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000013/spgi-20251231.htm

[53] SPGI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · Q&A on AI data pricing and renewal cycles · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[54] SPGI 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Market Intelligence revenue drivers · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000045/spgi-20260630.htm

[55] SPGI Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-28 · Q&A on MI ACV and ratings · 2026-04-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[56] SPGI 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 organic constant currency revenue by division · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm

[57] SPGI 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Energy revenue drivers · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000045/spgi-20260630.htm