[AMT] American Tower: Q3 2026 earnings preview on U.S. tower growth after DISH

American Tower leases space on roughly 150,000 communications sites worldwide to wireless carriers under long-term contracts and runs the CoreSite data center business in the United States[1]. Its Q3 2026 earnings call is scheduled for 2026-10-27 and will cover the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026[2]. In the most recent disclosed quarter, the second quarter of 2026, total revenue rose 4.7% to $2.749 billion and Adjusted EBITDA rose 3.2% to $1.808 billion[3], while company-wide organic tenant billings grew only 1.7%[4] and AFFO attributable to common stockholders was $2.71 per share[5]. The company gives only full-year guidance: on July 28 it raised its 2026 AFFO per share outlook to $11.00-$11.17, a 3.0% increase at the midpoint[6], and $0.06 of the $0.09 raise came from currency[7]. In the Drillr analyst compilation, 10 analysts expect third-quarter revenue of $2.760 billion on average and 5 analysts expect GAAP EPS of $1.64; the EPS figure is based on net income attributable to common stockholders, includes currency gains and losses and is not the same as AFFO. The comparable second-quarter expectations were $2.699 billion and $1.57, against actual results of $2.749 billion and $1.86[8].

Three things matter most in the Q3 report. The first is net leasing on U.S. towers: with DISH's default booked entirely as churn, U.S. & Canada organic tenant billings grew only 0.7% in the second quarter, as $34 million of amendments and $39 million of escalations barely covered $63 million of churn[9]; whether amendments hold up and churn stays contained decides whether a segment that produces about half of revenue can keep growing at all. The second is CoreSite's leasing conversion: management said the second quarter delivered record new leasing revenue[10], yet data center revenue growth slowed from about 18% in the first quarter to 13.4% in the second[11][12], so the size of the third-quarter rent increase will test the lag between signing and commencement. The third is two opposing forces in emerging markets: Latin American organic billings fell 2.4% in the second quarter while Africa grew 10.6%, management expects Africa to slow to about 7% in the second half as churn rises[13], and the AT&T Mexico arbitration was scheduled for an August hearing[14]; together these regions determine whether the company-wide organic billings guidance of about 1% holds[15].

Company Background and Business Structure

American Tower is a Boston-based communications infrastructure REIT whose core asset is towers that can be leased to several carriers at once. At the end of 2025 it owned 149,686 communications sites, including 42,224 in the U.S. & Canada, 27,857 in Africa & APAC, 32,524 in Europe and 47,081 in Latin America, and it operated 30 data centers across 11 U.S. markets[1] with about 3.7 million net rentable square feet[16]. As a REIT, the company pays out most of its taxable income as dividends: it declared $1.79 per share in the second quarter, $834 million in total and 5.3% more per share than a year earlier[17], and the third-quarter distribution declared in September is also $1.79 per share, payable on October 20[18].

The company has kept shrinking its emerging-market footprint and moving capital toward developed markets. It sold its India business in 2024 and its South Africa fiber business in 2025[19], and it completed the sale of its Philippines subsidiary on June 15, 2026[17]. Management said the Philippines and Bangladesh divestitures are neutral to AFFO per share growth and that 85% of 2026 discretionary capital goes to developed markets[20]. At the end of June 2026, all 26,472 owned towers in the Africa & APAC segment were in seven African countries[21].

The company reports six segments, and the U.S. & Canada remains the core of revenue. Total 2025 revenue was $10.645 billion, made up of $10.305 billion of property revenue and $340 million of services revenue; within property, the U.S. & Canada contributed $5.249 billion, Latin America $1.643 billion, Africa & APAC $1.423 billion, Data Centers $1.053 billion and Europe $938 million[22], or about 49%, 15%, 13%, 10% and 9% of total revenue[23]. The services segment handles site applications, zoning and permitting, structural analysis and construction management for carrier deployments on the company's towers[24], which makes it the front end of amendment activity, while the data center segment leases space, power and interconnection to enterprises, network operators and cloud providers[1].

Tower revenue comes from long-term contracts, and the customer base is highly concentrated. Carriers sign leases with initial non-cancellable terms of five to ten years, with U.S. rents rising by a fixed average of about 3% a year and most international leases tied to inflation indexes[25]; new tenants or added equipment raise rent, while cancellations, non-renewals and rate cuts count as churn[26]. AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon account for 85% of U.S. & Canada segment revenue, Airtel and MTN for 81% of Africa & APAC, Telefónica for 70% of Europe, and América Móvil, AT&T, Telefónica and TIM for 71% of Latin America[27]; across the whole company, the top four customers are T-Mobile at 18%, AT&T at 17%, Verizon at 14% and Telefónica at 10%[28].

Both the data center and European businesses have outside owners, so cash flow attributable to common stockholders excludes their share. American Tower holds about 71% of the common equity of its U.S. data center business, Stonepeak holds the other roughly 29% of common equity and all of the mandatorily convertible preferred equity, and the European business is also controlled by the company with minority partners[29]. A tower's direct costs are mainly ground rent, power and fuel, some or all of which can be passed through to tenants as pass-through revenue[30].

Financial History and Current Position

American Tower's total revenue was $10.012 billion in 2023, $10.127 billion in 2024 and $10.645 billion in 2025; 2025 operating income was $4.846 billion and net income attributable to common stockholders was $2.530 billion, including an $809 million foreign currency loss[31]. In the same year Adjusted EBITDA rose 5% to $7.130 billion and AFFO attributable to common stockholders rose 2% to $5.042 billion[32], or about $10.76 per share on roughly 469 million diluted shares. Figures from 2024 onward exclude the divested India business, so they are not fully comparable with earlier years[23].

Operating cash flow in 2025 covered dividends and capital spending, but debt barely came down. Cash from operations was $5.464 billion and capital expenditures were about $1.721 billion, including about $609 million for data centers[19]; the company paid $3.157 billion of common dividends and bought back $365 million of stock[33], and it ended the year with $37.4 billion of total debt, $3.4 billion of it current[34].

In the first half of 2026, reported revenue grew faster than billings, but U.S. segment revenue declined. First-half total revenue rose 5.7% to $5.487 billion and property revenue rose 6.8% to $5.358 billion[35]; U.S. & Canada property revenue fell 2.7% to $2.536 billion, while data center revenue rose 15.8% to $586 million[11]. The U.S. decline came mainly from DISH being reflected 100% in churn from January 1, which pushed company-wide churn to about 5% of tenant billings in the first half[36], along with lower straight-line revenue.

Second-quarter reported earnings swung sharply with currency, so AFFO is the closer measure of operating cash. The second-quarter property gross margin was 73.7% and the Adjusted EBITDA margin was 65.8%, while net income attributable to common stockholders was $868 million, or $1.86 per diluted share, up 138.5%[4]; first-quarter AFFO per share was $2.84, up 3.3%[37]. First-half AFFO per share totaled $5.55, so subtracting it from the $11.00-$11.17 full-year guidance implies $5.45-$5.62 for the second half[6].

The balance sheet is highly leveraged and relies on rolling refinancing. First-half operating cash flow rose 12.1% to $2.887 billion, and the company paid $1.641 billion of dividends and about $203 million of buybacks over the period[38]. At the end of June total debt was $37.19 billion and cash was $1.763 billion, net debt was 4.9 times annualized second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA, and total liquidity was about $9.9 billion[39], with $5.2 billion of debt due within a year[40]. In September the company priced $1.6 billion of senior notes at 5.300%-5.750% to repay $600 million of maturing 1.450% notes and revolving credit borrowings[41].

The company raised its full-year outlook for the second time in July, but the raise came mainly from data centers, currency and one-time expense benefits. The 2026 outlook calls for property revenue of $10.695-$10.845 billion, up 4.5% at the midpoint, and Adjusted EBITDA of $7.240-$7.310 billion, up 2.0%, including U.S. & Canada property revenue of $5.060-$5.120 billion, down 3.0% at the midpoint with more than 3 percentage points of drag from lower straight-line revenue[6]; the company cited currency, data center outperformance and one-time expense benefits as the reasons for the raise[7]. Management described 2026 as the trough for AFFO per share growth and said it looks for growth to return to the mid-to-high single digits in 2027 as headwinds ease[42].

Operating Model

Tower property revenue is driven by tenant billings, which depend on escalations on existing contracts, amendments and new tenants, churn and new sites. The company splits billings growth into colocations and amendments, contractual escalations net of churn, and day-one billings from newly built or acquired sites[26]; based on leases and exchange rates at the end of June 2026, existing contracts carry nearly $50 billion of future non-cancellable lease revenue[43]. GAAP revenue also includes straight-line revenue, international pass-through revenue, reserves and currency effects, and the 2026 decline in straight-line revenue lowers reported U.S. & Canada growth by more than 3 percentage points[6].

The second-quarter revenue components show that churn absorbed most of the company's billings growth. Starting from $1.948 billion of prior-year tenant billings, colocations and amendments added $63 million and escalations added $64 million, while churn removed $92 million, leaving organic billings of $1.982 billion, up 1.7%, plus $13 million of new-site billings[9]. Churn in the prior-year quarter had been only $44 million[44], and the increase came mainly from DISH in the United States[36] and customer cancellations in Brazil[45].

Adding a tenant to a tower adds almost no cost, so changes in billings flow through to profit at a very high rate. Direct property costs are mainly ground rent, power and fuel, property taxes and maintenance, and the incremental cost of a new tenant is small[30]; the second-quarter property gross margin was 73.7%[4] and the U.S. & Canada segment operating profit margin was 79%[46]. Data centers earn lower margins, with second-quarter segment operating profit of $157 million and a 53% margin, but they grow faster[46].

Between Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share sit interest, taxes, maintenance spending and minority distributions, and this is where interest rates bite. Second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $1.808 billion, after straight-line and interest income adjustments and after deducting $342 million of cash interest, $119 million of cash taxes, about $47 million of maintenance and corporate capital spending and $108 million of noncontrolling interest adjustments and distributions, became $1.264 billion of AFFO attributable to common stockholders, or $2.71 per share on 466.3 million shares[5]. The full-year outlook assumes $1.380-$1.400 billion of cash interest and $435 million of noncontrolling interest adjustments and distributions[47]. GAAP net income also carries about $2 billion a year of depreciation and foreign currency gains or losses[31], so it swings far more from quarter to quarter than AFFO.

Operating cash flow goes mainly to dividends, capital spending and debt service, leaving limited room for buybacks. The 2026 capital spending outlook is $1.805-$1.915 billion, including about $695 million of data center development, 1,700 to 2,300 new sites and $200-$220 million to buy land under towers[48]; management said it can consistently underwrite mid-teens or better stabilized yields on new CoreSite investments[49]. Low-coupon bonds maturing in 2026 are being replaced with new debt at 5% to 6%, and management therefore raised the refinancing drag on AFFO per share growth from 1 percentage point to 1.5 percentage points[42].

Industry and Competitive Position

In the United States, tower owners serve three national carriers, and established tower locations are hard to replace. The company says carriers tend to renew because suitable alternative sites may not exist and relocating equipment is costly and can hurt network quality, and churn was about 2% of tenant billings in 2025[25]. DISH, the would-be fourth carrier, sent a notice on September 24, 2025 claiming to be excused from its contract[50] and has been in default since January 2026; after suing, the company terminated the contract effective June 2[51], DISH filed for chapter 11 on June 30, and the company continues to pursue damages[52]. DISH represented about 2% of total property revenue and 4% of U.S. & Canada property revenue in 2025[53].

U.S. tower demand depends on carrier network investment cycles, and management places the next leg of growth in 2027. Management lists four long-term demand drivers: 5G densification, a new spectrum deployment cycle starting in 2027, the eventual move to 6G, and heavier two-way data traffic from AI applications[54]; it also noted that current mobile capacity forecasts cover only existing use cases and may understate incremental demand from AI-native applications and 6G[55]. These are management's views, and the 38% second-quarter drop in services revenue, driven mainly by fewer site application and structural analysis jobs[24], is consistent with carriers slowing deployments ahead of the new spectrum cycle.

International markets are at different stages of network build-out, and their growth is moving in different directions. Africa is still building networks and new sites, with $9 million of new-site billings and 10.6% organic billings growth in Africa & APAC in the second quarter[9]; Brazil is at a churn peak after carrier consolidation, and in the first quarter management said Brazilian churn was peaking and that it looks for accelerated growth from 2027[56]. Europe grew about 4% organically in the second quarter, in line with management's earlier expectations[13].

In data centers, CoreSite's advantage is the density of its network and cloud interconnections. The company says its facilities suit hybrid-cloud and multi-cloud deployments as well as early-stage AI workloads such as inferencing, because AI workloads benefit from sitting alongside hybrid installations[57]; management said the second quarter brought record new leasing revenue, with more new business added than in all of 2021[10]. Management also acknowledged local opposition to data center siting, which it is handling through its government affairs and zoning teams[56].

The available disclosures support only a limited peer comparison. They cover the company's own customer concentration and churn but contain no comparable financials for other tower companies or data center operators; when an analyst asked on the first-quarter call about peer SBA being taken private, management declined to comment[56]. The competitive assessment here therefore rests on the company's own description of its operating characteristics rather than on a quantified comparison with peers.

Core Debates

With DISH's default now booked entirely as churn, U.S. tower organic growth fell to 0.7% in the second quarter. Can amendments from the three national carriers keep offsetting that loss in the third quarter?

This question matters because the U.S. & Canada segment produces about half of revenue and more than half of segment profit, and the full-year guidance leaves almost no room. The segment accounted for 49% of total revenue in 2025[23] and earned $4.212 billion of operating profit at a margin of about 80%[58], yet the company guides to only about 0.5% organic billings growth for the segment in 2026[15]. On the second quarter's prior-year billings base of $1.261 billion, every $10 million per quarter of change in amendments or churn moves segment organic growth by about 0.8 percentage points[9].

The second-quarter billings components show that amendments and escalations only just covered the churn from DISH. U.S. & Canada organic tenant billings grew 0.7% to $1.270 billion, with $34 million of amendments, $39 million of escalations and $63 million of churn, and first-quarter amendments and churn were likewise $34 million and $63 million[59]; a year earlier amendments were $39 million and churn only $29 million[44]. Reported segment revenue fell 2.5% to $1.274 billion, mainly because straight-line revenue dropped by $44 million[60]. Management said organic growth excluding DISH was about 5%, in line with its expectation of durable mid-single-digit growth[61].

The transmission runs from carrier capital spending all the way to AFFO per share, but one measurement question remains open. Carrier spending on 5G densification and new spectrum first shows up as site application and structural analysis work in the services segment, then becomes amendment billings on existing towers; adding roughly 3% contractual escalations and subtracting DISH and other cancellations yields organic tenant billings, and because marginal cost is close to zero, nearly all of that change flows into segment operating profit at a margin of about 79% and on to Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share. A competing reading deserves weight: amendments have fallen from $39 million a year earlier to $34 million and services revenue dropped 38% in the second quarter[24], which may mean carriers are slowing deployments ahead of the new spectrum cycle and that the "about 5% excluding DISH" rate could drift lower in the second half; U.S. churn outside DISH is not disclosed separately, so that figure rests only on management's statement on the call.

The Q3 report can test this debate with four numbers. Readers should watch whether U.S. & Canada organic billings growth stays at or above 0.7%, whether amendments hold at $34 million a quarter, whether churn stays near $63 million with no new cancellations beyond DISH, and whether the year-over-year decline in services revenue narrows. If organic growth falls below 0.3% and amendments drop under $30 million, carrier demand is weakening beyond DISH; if amendments return above $39 million, concerns about U.S. tower demand were overdone.

CoreSite signed record new leases in the second quarter, yet revenue growth slowed from 18% in the first quarter to 13%. Will those leases begin commencing in the third quarter and lift growth back above 14%?

Data centers are the company's fastest-growing segment and one of the main sources of AFFO per share growth this year. The 2026 outlook calls for data center revenue of $1.200-$1.220 billion, up 14.9% at the midpoint[6], which at the midpoint represents about a third of the company's property revenue increase, and data center outperformance was one of the three reasons given for the July raise[7]. In a year when DISH is weighing on U.S. towers, the pace at which CoreSite converts leases directly affects the quality of full-year growth.

Second-quarter data show revenue still growing at double digits, but the increase came mainly from rent and power on leases that had already commenced. Data center revenue rose 13.4% to $297 million, and of the $35.2 million increase, rental and related revenue contributed $20.3 million, power $8.2 million, interconnection $3.5 million and straight-line revenue $3.2 million[62]; segment operating profit was $157 million at a 53% margin, unchanged from the first quarter[12]. Management said the quarter delivered record new leasing revenue and that revenue excluding straight-line grew about 12%, the fifth straight quarter of double-digit growth[10], and it raised full-year data center revenue growth guidance to 15% from 13%[63].

Facility delivery sits between demand and revenue, and the length of that lag is the heart of the debate. After cloud providers, enterprises and AI inference customers sign new leases, rent starts only when capacity under construction is delivered; only then do rental revenue, usage-based power revenue and cross-connect revenue begin, flowing through a segment margin of about 53% into Adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO also deducts distributions tied to Stonepeak's roughly 29% stake[29]. The company plans to spend about $695 million developing data centers in 2026[48], but signed bookings, capacity under construction and utilization appear only in supplemental materials on the company's website, so the lag from signing to revenue cannot be quantified. A competing reading is that second-half growth could stall near 12%, and rising power consumption and prices can also make revenue grow faster than underlying rent.

The Q3 report can test the speed of lease conversion from four angles. Readers should watch whether year-over-year data center revenue growth reaches 14%, whether the rent increase exceeds the second quarter's $20.3 million, whether the interconnection increase stays above $3.5 million, and whether the segment operating margin holds at 53%. If revenue growth falls below 12% while the rent increase shrinks, the lag from signing to commencement is longer than expected; if growth reaches 15% or more without margin erosion, leases are converting faster than expected.

Brazilian churn has pushed Latin American organic billings negative for two straight quarters, and AT&T Mexico is seeking rent cuts in arbitration. Will the region's revenue base keep shrinking in the third quarter?

Latin America is the largest profit source outside the United States, and its billings base is shrinking. The region contributes about 15% of total revenue and earned about $1.029 billion of segment operating profit in 2025[58]; AT&T Mexico alone generated about $300 million of tenant revenue in 2025[50], and the arbitration outcome could permanently change that revenue. At the same time, currency tailwinds lifted the segment's GAAP revenue by 13%, masking the decline in billings.

Second-quarter data show churn getting heavier, with reported revenue growth coming mainly from currency and reserves. Latin American organic tenant billings fell 2.4% to $281 million, with $7 million of amendments, $11 million of escalations and $24 million of churn[9]; churn was double the $12 million of a year earlier[44] and up from $21 million in the first quarter[59]. The 10-Q attributes the billings decline to customer cancellations in Brazil, while segment revenue rose 13.4% to $442 million, including a $44.0 million currency contribution and $14.1 million from lower revenue reserves[45].

Latin America's financial transmission runs along three lines, and the AT&T Mexico arbitration has reached the ruling stage. The first is Brazilian carrier consolidation, which shuts duplicate sites and turns expiring contracts into churn. The second is AT&T Mexico's arbitration challenging the monthly rent calculation under its master lease and seeking retroactive and prospective rent cuts: it began withholding rent in early 2025, the parties agreed in September 2025 that most rent would resume with the rest placed in an independent escrow pending a ruling, and the company booked about $30 million of reserves in 2025 and another roughly $20 million in the first half of 2026, with a hearing scheduled for August 2026[14] and no result disclosed by the company as of early October. The third is the real and the peso, which set the dollar value of reported revenue. Management said repair in the Brazilian market is arriving earlier than previously anticipated and that growth will accelerate in 2027[55], but a competing reading is that the full-year organic billings guidance of about −3%[15] implies heavier churn in the second half than in the first, and the claim that Brazil has peaked is not yet visible in the billings data.

The Q3 report should be read for three kinds of signals: billings, the arbitration and gross margin excluding currency. Readers should watch whether Latin American organic billings growth is no worse than −3.5%, whether churn falls below $21 million, whether the AT&T Mexico arbitration produces a ruling or larger reserves, and how segment gross margin moves outside currency effects; second-quarter segment gross margin was $311 million, up 17%[64]. A ruling for rent cuts could permanently lower about $300 million of annual AT&T Mexico rent; if churn falls and organic growth recovers to better than −2%, Brazilian churn has likely peaked.

African organic billings grew more than 10% in the first half, but management expects churn to rise and growth to slow to about 7% in the second half. Will the third-quarter slowdown stop near 7%, or go deeper?

Africa is the company's fastest-growing tower region, and the depth of its slowdown decides whether company-wide organic growth of about 1% is achieved. The 2026 outlook for Africa & APAC revenue is $1.620-$1.640 billion, up 14.6% at the midpoint[6]; in the second quarter, company-wide organic billings rose $34 million year over year, with Africa contributing $26 million, the U.S. and Europe about $15 million combined and Latin America subtracting $7 million[9].

Africa was still growing fast in the second quarter, but its margin has already slipped. Africa & APAC organic tenant billings rose 10.6% to $268 million, with $18 million of amendments, $11 million of escalations and $4 million of churn, plus $9 million of new-site billings that lifted total billings growth to 14.5%[9]. Segment revenue rose 23.5% to $415 million, including a $23.7 million currency contribution and $12.6 million of higher pass-through revenue driven by fuel costs[65]; segment operating profit was $246 million at a 59% margin, down from 63% a year earlier and in the first quarter[46][12]. Management expects about 8.5% organic growth for the full year and, with churn weighted to the second half, about 7% growth in the second half[13].

Africa's transmission chain is shaped by carrier network builds, contract cancellations, fuel prices and currency at the same time. Airtel, MTN and other carriers expanding 4G/5G and coverage generate amendments on existing sites and billings on new sites, and adding inflation-linked escalations and subtracting cancellations concentrated in the second half yields organic and total tenant billings; fuel and power prices move pass-through revenue and costs together and mainly affect the segment margin, while the naira, the cedi and other currencies set dollar-reported revenue and ultimately feed into Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share. A competing reading is that the second-half slowdown may not be limited to planned cancellations: if African carriers slow network builds under currency and fuel cost pressure, amendments would fall at the same time.

The Q3 report should be read on four numbers: growth, churn, amendments and margin. Readers should watch whether African organic billings growth stays at or above 7%, whether churn exceeds $12 million, whether amendments hold at $18 million, and whether the operating margin climbs back above 60%. Organic growth below 6% would mean second-half churn is running ahead of management's expectations; growth still above 8% would mean the second-half slowdown is milder than guided.

Risks and Falsifiers

Interest rate risk falls directly on AFFO per share. Management raised the refinancing drag on 2026 AFFO per share growth from 1 percentage point to 1.5 percentage points[42]; second-quarter cash interest was $342 million, up from $329 million a year earlier[5], debt due within a year was $5.2 billion at the end of June[40], variable-rate debt was about $2.8 billion[66], and the bonds issued in September carry rates of 5.30%-5.75% to repay maturing 1.450% notes[41]. If third-quarter cash interest stays at or below about $345 million a quarter and the company keeps its full-year AFFO per share guidance intact, this risk remains contained.

Currency lifted this year's guidance and could just as easily push results the other way. In the July raise, currency added about $35 million to property revenue and $0.06 to AFFO per share, and the outlook assumes 5.15 Brazilian reais, 17.50 Mexican pesos and 1,380 naira per dollar[7]; in the second quarter, $44.0 million of Latin American revenue and $23.7 million of African revenue came from currency[45][65]. Weaker Latin American and African currencies would pressure property revenue and AFFO per share together; a Q3 report that does not cut full-year guidance because of currency is the minimum evidence that this risk has not materialized.

If carriers keep slowing amendments ahead of the new spectrum cycle on top of DISH churn, U.S. tower organic growth would approach zero. The exposed line is U.S. & Canada segment gross margin, which was $1.054 billion in the second quarter[64]; every $10 million per quarter of lost amendments removes about $40 million of annualized gross margin. Third-quarter amendments of at least $34 million together with a narrower decline in services revenue would falsify this concern.

Delays in facility delivery and power connections could push back commencement on record leasing. Management has mentioned local opposition to data center siting[56], and the exposed lines are data center segment revenue and operating profit: subtracting first-half revenue of $586 million from the full-year outlook implies $614-$634 million for the second half[6], which reaches AFFO after Stonepeak's share is deducted. A third-quarter rent increase above $20.3 million with the 2026 development plan intact would falsify this risk.

If the AT&T Mexico arbitration orders rent cuts or retroactive refunds while Brazilian churn continues, Latin America's revenue base would shrink further. AT&T Mexico generated about $300 million of tenant revenue in 2025 and the company has booked about $50 million of cumulative reserves[14], so the exposure sits in Latin American segment revenue and gross margin. If the arbitration upholds the contract or the parties settle without lower rent, and third-quarter Latin American churn falls below $21 million, this risk is falsified.

If second-half churn in Africa exceeds expectations while the naira, the cedi and other currencies weaken, both segment operating profit and company-wide organic billings growth would come under pressure. Africa & APAC segment operating profit was $246 million in the second quarter[46], the line most directly exposed to this risk. Third-quarter organic growth of at least 7% with churn of no more than $12 million would show that management's second-half assumptions hold.

What to Watch Next

• U.S. towers after DISH: organic billings growth was 0.7% with $34 million of amendments, $63 million of churn and services revenue of $61.3 million, down 38%. Growth below 0.3% with amendments under $30 million signals weakening demand; amendments back above $39 million signal overdone concerns.
• CoreSite lease conversion: revenue growth was 13.4%, with a $20.3 million rent increase, a $3.5 million interconnection increase and a 53% margin. Growth below 12% with a smaller rent increase signals a longer lag; 15% or more with a stable margin signals faster conversion.
• Latin American churn and AT&T Mexico: organic billings fell 2.4%, churn was $24 million and cumulative reserves are about $50 million. A ruling for rent cuts would affect about $300 million of annual rent; lower churn and growth better than −2% would point to a Brazilian peak.
• Africa's second-half slowdown: organic growth was 10.6%, with $4 million of churn, $18 million of amendments and a 59% margin. Growth below 6% means churn is running ahead of expectations; above 8% means a milder slowdown.
• Refinancing cost: quarterly cash interest was $342 million against full-year AFFO per share guidance of $11.00-$11.17. Interest at or below about $345 million with guidance intact means the risk has not materialized.
• Currency: the outlook assumes 5.15 reais, 17.50 pesos and 1,380 naira per dollar. No currency-driven guidance cut means the risk has not materialized.

Conclusion

American Tower's business rests on long-term tower leases and the CoreSite data centers, and in 2026 those two engines are moving in clearly different directions. In the second quarter, company-wide organic billings grew only 1.7%, U.S. towers were held to 0.7% by DISH churn, data center revenue grew 13.4%, Africa grew 10.6% and Latin America fell 2.4%; the company ended June with about $37.2 billion of total debt and 4.9 times net leverage, and it guides to $11.00-$11.17 of AFFO per share for the year. The central unresolved relationship is whether U.S. amendments can sustain positive growth after DISH, and whether CoreSite's leases can turn into revenue fast enough to offset Latin American churn, the African slowdown and higher refinancing costs.

On outside interpretation, the available material has a clear gap. Between the second-quarter release and early October, the public coverage that could be found consisted mainly of results recaps, share-price stories, institutional holdings changes and the company's own debt and dividend announcements, plus one analysis of the DISH default published in March 2026, before these results; none of it offered an independently argued, verifiable outside assessment. No market view is therefore summarized here, and the four core debates can be tested only against company disclosures and management's statements.

The combination that would materially strengthen the current understanding is U.S. amendments back above $39 million with churn no longer spreading, data center revenue growth back above 14% with the margin holding at 53%, Latin American churn below $21 million with no arbitration ruling for rent cuts, and quarterly cash interest held within about $345 million with full-year guidance intact. Conversely, U.S. organic growth below 0.3%, data center growth below 12%, an AT&T Mexico ruling for rent cuts or African organic growth below 6% would significantly weaken management's case that 2026 marks the trough for AFFO per share growth.

Sources

[1] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · business and portfolio · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[2] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-02) · AMT 2026-10-27 call · 2026-10-02 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 consolidated highlights · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[4] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 operating results overview · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[5] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 AFFO reconciliation from Adjusted EBITDA · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[6] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · FY2026 outlook · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[7] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · FY2026 outlook raise drivers · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[8] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-02) · AMT quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-02 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 revenue components · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[10] AMT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · CoreSite record leasing · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[11] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 segment revenue · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[12] AMT 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 segment growth metrics · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000094/pressreleaseq12026.htm

[13] AMT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · Africa organic growth and back-half churn · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[14] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · AT&T Mexico reserves and arbitration · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[15] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · FY2026 tenant billings outlook · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[16] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · data center portfolio · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[17] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 distributions, buybacks and divestitures · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[18] AMT 8-K filed 2026-09-18 · Q3 2026 distribution · 2026-09-18 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000145/amt-20260917.htm

[19] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · FY2025 cash flows and capital expenditures · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[20] AMT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · capital allocation · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[21] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · June 30, 2026 site counts · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[22] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · FY2025 segment revenue and drivers · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[23] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · segment share of revenue · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[24] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 services revenue · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[25] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · lease terms, escalations, churn and margins · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[26] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · revenue growth drivers · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[27] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · top tenants by segment · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[28] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · top four customers · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[29] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · data center ownership · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[30] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · property operating expenses · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[31] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · FY2025 consolidated statement of operations · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[32] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[33] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · FY2025 distributions and buybacks · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[34] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · debt at December 31, 2025 · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[35] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 consolidated statement of operations · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[36] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · H1 2026 churn and DISH · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[37] AMT 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 operating results overview · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000094/pressreleaseq12026.htm

[38] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · H1 2026 cash flows · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[39] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 leverage and liquidity · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[40] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · debt at June 30, 2026 · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[41] AMT 8-K filed 2026-09-09 · senior notes offering · 2026-09-09 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000141/exhibit991september2026usd.htm

[42] AMT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · AFFO guidance and refinancing headwind · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[43] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · non-cancellable lease revenue · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[44] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2025 revenue components · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[45] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Latin America revenue drivers · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[46] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 segment results · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[47] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · FY2026 AFFO outlook bridge · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[48] AMT 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · FY2026 capital expenditure outlook · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm

[49] AMT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · Q&A on capital priorities · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[50] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · AT&T Mexico dispute · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[51] AMT 8-K filed 2026-06-04 · DISH SCA termination · 2026-06-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000127/amt-20260602.htm

[52] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · DISH termination, damages claim and chapter 11 · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[53] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · DISH dispute · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[54] AMT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · demand catalysts and CoreSite capacity · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[55] AMT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · stated risks · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[56] AMT Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-28 · Q&A on Brazil and data center NIMBYism · 2026-04-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[57] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · data center demand drivers · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[58] AMT 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · FY2025 segment gross margin and operating profit · 2026-02-24 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm

[59] AMT 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 revenue components · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000094/pressreleaseq12026.htm

[60] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 U.S. & Canada revenue drivers · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[61] AMT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · U.S. & Canada organic growth ex-DISH · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[62] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Data Centers revenue drivers · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[63] AMT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · property revenue and data center guidance · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[64] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 segment gross margin · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[65] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 Africa revenue drivers · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm

[66] AMT 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · variable rate debt · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000133/amt-20260630.htm