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[WM] WM: Q3 2026 earnings preview, can collection volumes hold flat?

Editorial illustration for [WM] WM: Q3 2026 earnings preview, can collection volumes hold flat?
Published 29 min read

Summary

WM grew Q2 2026 revenue 4.0% to $6.68 billion at a 30.9% adjusted EBITDA margin; Q3 results test whether collection volume can hold flat under 5.7% core price.

WM is North America's largest comprehensive environmental services company: its core business is waste collection and landfill disposal, and it also runs recycling, landfill-gas-to-renewable-natural-gas and medical waste operations[1]. According to the Drillr earnings calendar, WM is scheduled to report results on 2026-10-27 for the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026, making this a WM Q3 2026 earnings preview[2]. In the latest disclosed period, the second quarter of 2026, revenue rose 4.0% year over year to $6.684 billion, adjusted operating EBITDA was $2.067 billion at a 30.9% margin, and adjusted EPS was $2.02[3]; collection and disposal core price rose 5.7% while volume fell 1.8%[4]. On July 28 the company cut its full-year 2026 revenue outlook by about 0.6% to $26.275-$26.475 billion, kept its adjusted operating EBITDA outlook of $8.15-$8.25 billion and free cash flow outlook of $3.75-$3.85 billion, and raised its adjusted operating EBITDA margin outlook by 20 basis points to 31.0%-31.2%[5]. As of 2026-10-01, the consensus of 14 analysts for third-quarter revenue was $6.799 billion, the consensus of 17 analysts for adjusted EPS was $2.19, and consensus EBITDA was $2.145 billion; for reference, the comparable second-quarter consensus was $6.709 billion of revenue and $1.98 of EPS, so actual revenue came in slightly below and EPS slightly above those levels[6].

Three things matter most in the third-quarter report. The first is whether collection and disposal volume returns to roughly flat in the second half, as management says: excluding last year's wildfire cleanup, second-quarter volume still fell 0.4% and residential collection volume fell 2.9%[4][7], and management has already moved its full-year volume view from growth of 0.4% to a decline of about 0.8%[8], so further weakness would suggest that high prices are now costing volume. The second is whether recycling and renewable energy can sustain their profit growth: combined adjusted operating EBITDA for the two segments was $163 million in the second quarter, up about 32.5%[9], but the average single-stream recycled commodity price fell from about $84 per ton a year earlier to about $75[10], and two completed RNG plants are still waiting for third-party pipeline connections[11], which determines whether the "harvest" after lower growth capital spending actually arrives. The third is whether Healthcare Solutions (Stericycle) revenue turns to growth: segment revenue was $638 million in the second quarter, down 1.2%[12], and management says falling customer credits will become a tailwind to revenue and earnings in the second half[13]; if third-quarter revenue is still declining, the improvement at the company's largest acquisition will continue to depend on cost cuts.

Company Background and Business Structure

WM is a Houston-based holding company whose operations are all run by subsidiaries, and it owns the largest landfill network in the U.S. and Canada, which is the starting point for understanding its pricing power[1]. At the end of 2025 it owned or operated 257 landfills (253 solid waste and 4 hazardous waste sites) and 342 transfer stations; it is also North America's leading recycler and has power generation and renewable natural gas (RNG) facilities at its landfills[1]. In November 2024 the company acquired medical waste company Stericycle, creating the Healthcare Solutions segment, which provides regulated medical waste and secure information destruction services in the U.S., Canada and Western Europe[14]. At the end of 2025 WM had about 60,500 full-time employees, about 9,200 of them covered by collective bargaining agreements[15]; on August 26, 2026 the company announced that CEO Jim Fish will retire and President John Morris will become CEO on January 4, 2027[16].

The company manages five reportable segments, and Collection and Disposal East and West, together called Collection and Disposal, are by far the core business. Of $25.204 billion of 2025 net operating revenue, Collection and Disposal contributed $20.704 billion, or about 82%, including commercial collection of $5.630 billion, industrial collection of $3.106 billion, residential collection of $3.510 billion, other collection of $3.175 billion, landfill of $3.781 billion and transfer of $1.502 billion; Healthcare Solutions contributed $2.508 billion, or about 10%; Recycling Processing and Sales $1.492 billion, or about 6%; and Renewable Energy $478 million, or about 2%[17]. This mix means WM's revenue and profit are driven mainly by price and volume in North American solid waste, while the other three segments mostly affect growth and the margin at the edges.

The Collection and Disposal business model rests on long-term contracts and owned disposal assets. Commercial and industrial customers typically sign three-year service agreements priced on collection frequency, containers, waste type and weight, distance, labor, fuel and disposal costs; most residential collection runs under three- to ten-year franchises granted by municipalities or homeowners' associations, paid either by the municipality from tax revenue or directly by households[18]. Waste is compacted at transfer stations and hauled to landfills, and by sending its own collected waste to its own landfills the company keeps disposal fees it would otherwise pay to third parties; internalization based on disposal costs was 73.0% in the second quarter versus 71.9% a year earlier[18][19]. The recycling segment processes recyclables at automated sorting facilities and sells cardboard, paper, plastics and metals; the renewable energy segment upgrades landfill gas into RNG for sale and earns RIN credits under the Renewable Fuel Standard; and Healthcare Solutions treats medical and pharmaceutical waste by autoclave or incineration and also provides document destruction services[1][14].

Financial History and Current Position

In fiscal 2025, revenue rose 14.2% from $22.063 billion in 2024 to $25.204 billion, driven mainly by the Stericycle acquisition and higher pricing in Collection and Disposal[20]. Operating income was $4.308 billion, a 17.1% margin, and net income attributable to WM was $2.708 billion, or $6.70 per diluted share, slightly below the $2.746 billion of 2024 because of higher interest expense from the acquisition[20]. Operating cash flow was $6.043 billion in 2025, up from $5.390 billion in 2024, and free cash flow was $2.937 billion, up from $2.317 billion[21]; Collection and Disposal yield contributed $719 million, or 3.8%, and organic volume grew 0.9%, including special waste volume from wildfire cleanup[22][20].

Results for the first half of 2026 show earnings growing faster than revenue. First-half revenue was $12.911 billion, up 3.7%, and operating income was $2.366 billion; in the second quarter, operating income was $1.253 billion, net income attributable to WM was $785 million, and diluted EPS was $1.95, or $2.02 adjusted[23][3]. Second-quarter adjusted operating EBITDA rose 5.5%, or 9.1% excluding last year's wildfire cleanup contribution[3]; operating expenses were 59.2% of revenue, flat with the prior year, and adjusted SG&A was 9.9% of revenue, a 60 basis point improvement[4]. First-half operating cash flow was $3.227 billion, up 17%, capital spending fell 18%, and free cash flow was $2.024 billion, up about 56%[19][24]; over the same period the company repurchased $1.003 billion of stock and paid $764 million of dividends[25].

The balance sheet sits inside the company's own leverage range. On June 30, 2026, WM had $557 million of cash, $22.281 billion of long-term debt and another $1.075 billion of debt due within a year[25], with leverage of 2.96x, inside its 2.5x-3.0x target range[24]; its $3.5 billion revolving credit facility was undrawn, leaving about $2.2 billion of available capacity after commercial paper and letters of credit[26]. The board expects to raise the quarterly dividend from $0.825 to $0.945 per share in 2026, a 14.5% increase, and approved up to $3.0 billion of repurchases, with about $2.0 billion planned for 2026[27].

WM gives only full-year guidance and no quarterly guidance, so what the second half requires can only be derived by subtracting first-half results from the full-year outlook. Subtracting first-half revenue of $12.911 billion from the $26.275-$26.475 billion revenue outlook implies second-half revenue of $13.364-$13.564 billion; subtracting first-half adjusted operating EBITDA of $3.920 billion from the EBITDA outlook implies $4.230-$4.330 billion for the second half; and subtracting first-half free cash flow of $2.024 billion from the free cash flow outlook implies $1.726-$1.826 billion[5][23][19]. The $6.799 billion third-quarter revenue consensus is about half of implied second-half revenue[6].

Operating Model

Collection and Disposal revenue can be broken into "prior-year revenue × (1 + yield + volume change) + energy surcharges and mandated fees + net acquisitions," where yield is the net effect of core price after mix changes, the price gap between new and lost business, and price cuts to retain customers[28]. Second-quarter core price was 5.7% and yield was 3.6%[4]; about 40%-45% of Collection and Disposal revenue is repriced on an index, and changes in CPI reach prices with a lag of roughly two quarters[29]. Total revenue rose $254 million in the second quarter: Collection and Disposal yield added $181 million, energy surcharges and mandated fees added $102 million, volume subtracted $22 million, Healthcare Solutions subtracted $30 million, and acquisitions added $33 million[7]. Recycling revenue equals tons processed times the single-stream commodity price, and renewable energy revenue equals RNG output times the sum of natural gas and RIN prices plus power revenue; in the second quarter the average RIN price was $2.33 versus $2.53 a year earlier, natural gas was $2.23 per MMBtu versus $2.81, and electricity was about $69 per megawatt hour versus about $67[10]. Healthcare Solutions revenue depends on customer count, service volume and price, less customer credits that arose during the integration[13].

On the profit side, the key is the spread between price increases and increases in labor, maintenance and fuel costs, together with internalization. Second-quarter operating expenses were 59.2% of revenue, including labor at 17.2%, subcontractors at 10.3%, maintenance and repairs at 8.8%, cost of goods sold at 3.4% and fuel at 2.6%, with fuel expense rising from $129 million to $171 million[30]. Segment adjusted operating EBITDA margins differ widely: Collection and Disposal 38.6%, Recycling 22.8%, Renewable Energy 45.2%, Healthcare Solutions 19.0%, while Corporate and Other was negative $332 million[9]. Management said collection operating costs rose less than 1.7% despite 4% labor inflation and that its Smart Truck platform generates $300 million of annual run-rate EBITDA[31]; higher fuel costs are passed through via surcharges almost in real time with little effect on EBITDA dollars[29], but they dilute the margin, by about 40 basis points in the second quarter[24]. Operating income is further reduced by $777 million of second-quarter depreciation, depletion, amortization and accretion (the time-value unwinding of landfill liabilities), and net income by $233 million of interest expense and income taxes[23].

On the cash side, free cash flow equals operating cash flow minus capital spending to support the business and sustainability growth capital spending, plus divestiture proceeds. The company's 2026 reconciliation assumes operating cash flow of $6.30-$6.45 billion, business capital spending of $2.4-$2.5 billion and growth capital spending of about $250 million[32]; first-half actuals were $3.227 billion of operating cash flow, $1.144 billion of business capital spending and $136 million of growth capital spending[19]. In its 2025 annual report the company said its sustainability projects are moving from peak construction into a harvest period, and the planned decline in growth capital spending is one of the main sources of free cash flow growth[21]. This cash goes mainly to dividends, buybacks and small acquisitions; in the second quarter WM closed $235 million of solid waste tuck-in acquisitions and said acquisition activity will increase now that leverage is back in the target range[24].

Industry and Competitive Position

WM's competitive advantage comes mainly from hard-to-replicate disposal assets, while competitive pressure shows up mainly in collection. The company has North America's largest landfill network, largest recycling system and the most landfill-gas-to-energy facilities[1]; it competes with governmental and quasi-governmental bodies, national waste companies, regional and local haulers, specialized disposal operators and waste brokers that rely on local haulers, prices are set locally, and competition centers on price and service quality[33]. In the second quarter WM also bought a Florida landfill serving the high-growth Miami market, which management said extends its local disposal advantage and complements a previously built rail network that moves South Florida waste to a long-life landfill in Central Florida[8].

Current evidence on competition points to two areas: residential collection and commercial national accounts. Management acknowledged that the residential market is fragmented and highly competitive and that WM is deliberately shedding lower-margin residential contracts, while residential volume losses narrowed by 210 basis points from the first quarter[11][4]; the commercial business lost national account volume this quarter, which management described as a one-off and said customer sentiment had not changed noticeably[8]. In medical waste, management said Stericycle is fully integrated and the long-term demand from an aging population is unchanged[13].

Any comparison of competitive position has clear limits. The annual report describes competitors only by category and gives no market-share data[33], and no side-by-side peer financials are available here, so the claim that WM has stronger pricing power than its peers can only be inferred indirectly from the combination of its own price, volume and margin.

Core Debates

Core price is still rising 5.7%, but collection and disposal volume keeps slipping. Can it return to flat in the third quarter, as management expects?

This debate matters because Collection and Disposal provides about 82% of revenue and most of the profit, with a 38.6% adjusted operating EBITDA margin in the second quarter[17][9]. WM has long expanded margins through "price above cost plus stable volume," and the roughly 0.6% cut to second-quarter revenue guidance was driven mainly by lower-than-expected volume[5]. If price increases start to cost volume persistently, revenue growth could slow from around 4% to around 2%, and the room for margin expansion would also narrow.

Current evidence shows pricing remains strong while volume is weakening in several areas. Collection and Disposal volume fell 1.8% in the second quarter, 0.4% excluding last year's wildfire cleanup, and 1.6% in the first half; by line, commercial collection volume fell 1.2%, residential fell 2.9% and industrial rose 0.2%[7][4]. On the other side, special waste volume rose 4.5%, and landfill volume excluding wildfires rose 1.7%[31][4]. Core price slowed from 6.3% in the first quarter to 5.7% in the second, and yield slowed from 3.9% to 3.6%, with commercial at 4.0%, industrial at 3.4%, residential at 6.1% and municipal solid waste at 5.2%[34][7][28].

Management and an alternative reading disagree on why volume is being lost, and the evidence cannot yet tell which is right. Management moved its full-year volume view from growth of 0.4% to a decline of about 0.8%, attributing it mainly to the missing post-winter volume recovery in the first half, describing the commercial national account loss as a one-off, and saying competition has not intensified broadly[8]; about half of the revenue guidance cut came from the weaker-than-expected Collection and Disposal volume recovery[13]. The alternative explanation is that intense residential competition and the loss of commercial national accounts to price-driven broker networks mean high prices themselves are driving churn[11]. By management's estimate, weaker volume has taken about $250 million out of full-year revenue, and each percentage point of volume is worth about $200 million of annual revenue[13].

The third-quarter report can separate these explanations through volume and the gap between yield and core price. The points to watch are third-quarter Collection and Disposal volume and the company's ex-wildfire figure, whether core price holds above 5.5%, whether the gap between yield and core price widens, the trend in commercial and residential collection volume, whether special waste and industrial roll-off volume keep growing, whether the Collection and Disposal margin expands year over year, and whether full-year revenue guidance is revised again. A volume decline of 1% or more would overturn the "flat second half" view; core price below 5% would indicate weakening pricing power; and another revenue guidance cut attributed to volume would also weaken the current understanding.

Recycling and renewable natural gas earnings grew by about a third in the second quarter. With the build-out largely finished, can that pace hold?

This debate bears on whether free cash flow growth can last, because recycling and renewable energy together are only about 8% of revenue yet absorbed a large share of WM's growth capital in recent years[17][21]. Sustainability growth capital spending falls to about $250 million in 2026[32], and a substantial part of free cash flow growth comes from "investment ending, harvest beginning." Combined second-quarter adjusted operating EBITDA for the two segments was $163 million, $92 million from Recycling and $71 million from Renewable Energy, up about 32.5% and about 8% of the company total[9], adding about 30 basis points to the overall company margin[31]; if profit growth slows quickly, the harvest thesis would need to be discounted.

Volume growth is currently the main source of profit growth, while prices are a drag. Recycling processing volume rose 12% year over year in the second quarter, automated sorting facilities deliver about 30% lower labor cost per ton than legacy plants, RNG production rose by another 1.6 million MMBtu in the quarter, and 38 of 39 planned automated recycling facilities are complete, with the last coming online in 2027[31]. Renewable Energy revenue was $157 million, up about 36.5%[12], driven by output from new plants, while RNG pricing actually reduced the segment's yield contribution by $4 million[35]. In the second quarter WM completed three new RNG plants and a recycling facility in Denver, adding about 3.5 million MMBtu of annualized capacity[4].

The headwinds are just as specific, and they will shape the growth rate once the capacity ramp ends. The single-stream recycled commodity price averaged about $75 per ton, below about $84 a year earlier[10]; two completed RNG plants are waiting for third-party pipeline connections, pushing revenue recognition into 2027[11], though management said in the Q&A that they should come online by the end of 2026, and this was one reason for the full-year revenue guidance cut[13]; and a recycling facility in Arizona also suffered a fire[36]. About 90% of 2026 RIN volume is already locked in and roughly one-third of 2027 volume is presold, so RIN price swings have limited effect this year[8]. The alternative explanation is that first-half growth came mainly from initial plant start-ups and a low base, and that once the ramp ends, profit will move mainly with commodity prices.

The third-quarter report needs to show whether growth stays high and when the delayed plants connect. The points to watch are whether combined adjusted operating EBITDA growth for the two segments stays above 20%, how the single-stream commodity price compares with $75 per ton, progress on pipeline connections for the two delayed RNG plants, recycling volume growth and the effect of the Arizona fire, and Renewable Energy revenue growth. Combined EBITDA growth below 15%, a single-stream commodity price below $65 per ton, or RNG connections slipping beyond 2027 would weaken the harvest view.

Medical-waste revenue has drifted lower since the Stericycle acquisition. Management says growth returns in the second half. Will the third quarter show it?

This debate decides whether WM's largest acquisition can move from cost-cutting to growth. Healthcare Solutions is about 10% of company revenue, but its second-quarter adjusted operating EBITDA margin of 19.0% is far below Collection and Disposal's 38.6%[17][9]; nearly all of the past year's improvement came from cost cuts, with segment SG&A down 15% year over year in the second quarter[31]. If revenue does not return to growth, the $300 million synergy target can only be reached through further cost cuts, and the acquisition's contribution to WM's growth would be discounted.

The latest data show margins improving while revenue is still edging down. Second-quarter Healthcare Solutions revenue was $638 million, versus $646 million a year earlier, down 1.2%, and first-half revenue was down about 1.0%[12]; the internal revenue change from price and volume combined was negative $30 million, as pricing contributions were more than offset by lower volume, and negative $42 million for the first half[7][37]. Adjusted operating EBITDA was $121 million, with the margin up from 17.0% to 19.0%[9], and the quarterly report attributes the improvement to the absence of prior-year one-time integration costs and synergy-driven cost reductions, partly offset by lower volume[38].

Management's case for an inflection and an alternative reading diverge. Management says the business is fully integrated, days sales outstanding improved by five days, customer credits caused by ERP problems during the integration peaked in the fourth quarter of 2025 and will become a tailwind to revenue and earnings in the second half; cross-selling has generated $32 million of annual EBITDA, with a target of $50 million by the first quarter of 2027 and $300 million of cumulative synergies by the end of 2027; and SG&A has fallen from more than 24% of revenue at acquisition to 18%, with a 15%-16% target by year-end[13]. The alternative explanation is that service problems during the integration have already driven some customers away, so falling credits can only stop the revenue decline rather than produce growth. Whether the internal revenue change from price plus volume turns positive in the third quarter can separate the two explanations.

The most direct test in the third-quarter report is the direction of revenue and the progress on the expense ratio. The points to watch are whether third-quarter healthcare revenue turns positive year over year, whether the internal revenue change turns positive, whether the adjusted margin holds above 19%, how quickly the SG&A ratio moves toward 15%-16%, and whether cross-selling EBITDA approaches $40 million. Revenue falling by more than 1% again, a margin below 18%, or a delay to the synergy target or inflection timing would falsify management's claim of a second-half return to growth.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk comes from fuel and energy surcharges, and it exposes the margin rather than EBITDA dollars. Diesel prices rose about 50% year over year in the second quarter, and surcharges and mandated fees added $102 million of revenue[35], fuel expense rose from $129 million to $171 million[30], and the surcharges diluted the margin by about 40 basis points[24]. The full-year revenue outlook already includes about $175 million of higher-than-expected surcharge revenue, so lower oil prices would leave revenue below guidance with EBITDA largely unchanged, while further oil price increases would compress the margin further[13]. If the third-quarter adjusted operating EBITDA margin still expands year over year and the company maintains its full-year EBITDA and margin outlook, this risk has not materialized.

The second risk is the tension between second-half cash flow and capital returns, and it exposes free cash flow and leverage. The full-year free cash flow outlook requires $1.726-$1.826 billion in the second half, below the $2.024 billion of the first half, while capital spending is usually more concentrated in the second half[32][19]; the company also plans about $2.0 billion of buybacks for the year, after $1.003 billion of repurchases and $764 million of dividends in the first half[27][25], leverage was 2.96x at the end of June, close to the 3.0x top of the target range[24], and the CEO transition takes effect on January 4, 2027[16]. If free cash flow for the first nine months reaches more than 75% of the low end of full-year guidance, or about $2.8 billion, with leverage no higher than 3.0x, this risk is falsified.

The third risk is price increases that cost volume, and it exposes the Collection and Disposal business that accounts for about 82% of revenue. If residential competition and commercial national account losses continue, the gap between yield and core price will widen[11]; management estimates that weaker volume has already created a full-year revenue gap of about $250 million[13]. If third-quarter volume is no worse than -0.3% and yield is no lower than 3.5%, this risk is falsified.

The fourth risk is delayed delivery of new capacity combined with falling prices, and it exposes about $160 million of quarterly adjusted EBITDA in the recycling and renewable energy segments[9]. Pipeline delays, the recycling plant fire and lower commodity prices could offset new capacity, and pipeline delays and slower recycling brokerage together have already reduced the full-year revenue outlook by about $75 million[13][11]. If combined adjusted EBITDA for the two segments grows at least 25% in the third quarter and at least one delayed plant is connected, this risk is falsified.

The fifth risk is a delayed revenue inflection in healthcare, and it exposes Healthcare Solutions, with about $2.5 billion of annual revenue and about $120 million of quarterly adjusted EBITDA[17][9]. If customer losses rather than credits are the main cause of the revenue decline, profit growth will stall once cost-cutting room is exhausted, and each 1% decline in revenue removes about $25 million of annual revenue[37]. If third-quarter revenue grows at least 2% year over year and the internal revenue change turns positive, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

The core debates and cross-cutting risks reduce to a set of observations the third-quarter report can check directly:

  • Collection and Disposal volume, including the ex-wildfire figure: the second-quarter baseline is -1.8%, or -0.4% excluding wildfires. No worse than -0.3% confirms the flat second-half view; -1% or worse falsifies it.
  • Core price and yield: the baseline is 5.7% core price and 3.6% yield. Yield of at least 3.5% confirms; core price below 5% falsifies.
  • Collection and Disposal adjusted margin: the baseline is 38.6%, and year-over-year expansion confirms.
  • Combined Recycling and Renewable Energy adjusted EBITDA: the baseline is $163 million, up about 32.5%. Growth of at least 25% confirms; below 15% falsifies.
  • Single-stream commodity price and delayed plant connections: the baseline is about $75 per ton with two plants awaiting connection. At least one connection confirms; a price below $65 per ton or connections slipping beyond 2027 falsifies.
  • Healthcare Solutions revenue and internal revenue change: the baseline is $638 million, down 1.2%, with a -$30 million internal change. Growth of at least 2% confirms; another decline of more than 1% falsifies.
  • Healthcare adjusted margin and SG&A ratio: the baselines are 19.0% and 18%. A margin below 18% falsifies.
  • Nine-month free cash flow and leverage: the baseline is $2.024 billion for the first half and 2.96x. About $2.8 billion with leverage no higher than 3.0x confirms.
  • Full-year guidance: the baseline is $26.275-$26.475 billion of revenue and a 31.0%-31.2% margin. Another revenue cut attributed to volume falsifies.

Conclusion

WM's earnings are driven by Collection and Disposal pricing above cost on stable volume, with recycling, RNG and medical waste supplying incremental growth. Second-quarter revenue was $6.684 billion with a 30.9% adjusted operating EBITDA margin, first-half free cash flow was $2.024 billion, and leverage was 2.96x[3][19][24]; full-year revenue guidance was cut to $26.275-$26.475 billion while EBITDA and free cash flow guidance were maintained[5]. The central unresolved relationship is whether 5.7% core price can keep lifting margins while volume returns to flat, or whether price itself is pushing customers to competitors.

From the July 28, 2026 second-quarter release through early October, no independent outside assessment with a named author and an explicit argument appeared; the coverage that can be found deals only with share price moves, holdings changes and the CEO transition. On all three debates, the volume recovery, the recycling and RNG harvest and the healthcare revenue inflection, the available basis is still mainly the company's own disclosures and management's explanations, and whether outsiders accept those explanations cannot be judged from the record so far.

What would genuinely strengthen the current understanding is several observations appearing together in the third-quarter report: Collection and Disposal volume no worse than -0.3% with yield of at least 3.5%, combined Recycling and Renewable Energy EBITDA growth of at least 25% with a delayed plant connected, Healthcare Solutions revenue returning to growth, and nine-month free cash flow near $2.8 billion with leverage no higher than 3.0x. Conversely, a volume decline of 1% or more, core price below 5%, another healthcare revenue decline of more than 1%, or another revenue guidance cut attributed to volume would materially weaken it.

Sources

[1] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · business overview and disposal network · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[2] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-01) · WM 2026-10-27 event · 2026-10-01 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 results headline · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[4] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 key highlights · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[5] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · 2026 outlook · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[6] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-01) · WM quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-01 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 internal revenue growth and yield/volume by line · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[8] WM Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · Q&A on volumes, RINs and national accounts · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 segment adjusted operating EBITDA · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[10] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 commodity and energy prices · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[11] WM Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · stated risks · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[12] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 revenue by line of business · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[13] WM Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · Q&A on Healthcare Solutions and revenue guidance · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[14] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · Healthcare Solutions services · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[15] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · employees · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[16] WM 8-K filed 2026-08-26 · CEO succession · 2026-08-26 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926101077/tm2624023d1_ex99-1.htm

[17] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · FY2025 revenue by line of business · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[18] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · collection contracts, landfills and internalization · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[19] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 free cash flow · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[20] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · FY2025 key results · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[21] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · FY2025 operating cash flow and free cash flow · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[22] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · FY2025 collection and disposal yield and volume · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[23] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · Q2 2026 income statement · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[24] WM Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · management highlights · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[25] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · June 30 2026 balance sheet and H1 cash flow · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[26] WM 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 · debt and revolving credit facility · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926088016/wm-20260630x10q.htm

[27] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · dividend and share repurchase plan · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[28] WM 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 collection and disposal average yield · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926088016/wm-20260630x10q.htm

[29] WM Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-29 · Q&A on pricing, fuel surcharges and RNG · 2026-04-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[30] WM 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 operating expenses · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926088016/wm-20260630x10q.htm

[31] WM Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · segment performance · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[32] WM 8-K filed 2026-07-28 · 2026 projected free cash flow reconciliation · 2026-07-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_ex99-1.htm

[33] WM 10-K filed 2026-02-09 · competition · 2026-02-09 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm

[34] WM 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · Q1 2026 results highlights · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926050425/tm2612889d1_ex99-1.htm

[35] WM 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 commodity prices and energy surcharges · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926088016/wm-20260630x10q.htm

[36] WM Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-29 · guidance · 2026-07-29 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[37] WM 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 volume and Healthcare Solutions revenue · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926088016/wm-20260630x10q.htm

[38] WM 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 · Q2 2026 segment income from operations drivers · 2026-07-29 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926088016/wm-20260630x10q.htm

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