[PLTR] Palantir: Q3 2026 earnings test for U.S. commercial bookings

Palantir Technologies, which sells data-integration and artificial intelligence platform software to governments and companies, will hold its earnings call on 2026-11-02 to report results for the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026[1]. In the latest disclosed quarter, the second quarter of 2026, revenue rose 93% year over year and 19% sequentially to $1.935 billion; U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% to $764 million and U.S. government revenue grew 90% to $809 million[2]. Adjusted operating income was $1.194 billion, a 62% margin, GAAP operating income was $912 million, adjusted free cash flow was $1.220 billion and adjusted earnings per share were $0.41[3]. On August 3, Palantir guided third-quarter revenue to $2.160-$2.164 billion and adjusted operating income to $1.292-$1.296 billion, and it raised full-year revenue guidance to $8.150-$8.158 billion and full-year U.S. commercial revenue guidance to more than $3.424 billion[4]. According to analyst forecasts compiled by Drillr, the third-quarter revenue consensus from 15 analysts is $2.176 billion, about 0.6% above the top of company guidance, and the adjusted EPS consensus from 16 analysts is $0.411[5].

Three things matter most in these Palantir Q3 2026 earnings. First, U.S. commercial has to keep converting a record second quarter of bookings into double-digit sequential revenue growth: U.S. commercial signed $2.132 billion of contracts in the second quarter, nearly $800 million above the previous best quarter[6], yet year-over-year growth in the U.S. commercial customer count slowed from 42% in the first quarter to 35%[7][8], so third-quarter revenue and bookings will show whether growth reflects broad new demand or a handful of large deals. Second, U.S. government orders at the federal fiscal year-end need to keep lifting revenue without cloud hosting costs pulling margins lower: U.S. government revenue grew 90% in the second quarter, but Palantir began paying cloud hosting for one government customer and adjusted gross margin fell from 88% in the first quarter to 86%[9][10][11]. Third, revenue growth has to absorb the third-quarter expense ramp management flagged: guidance implies adjusted expenses of about $868 million, up roughly 17% sequentially, and an adjusted operating margin easing from 62% to about 60%[4], while stock-based compensation already rose 66% year over year in the second quarter[12].

Company Background and Business Structure

Palantir began as intelligence software and now uses the same data-integration capability to serve both governments and companies. Founded in 2003, it first built software for the U.S. intelligence community to support counterterrorism investigations and operations, then sold the same capability to enterprises facing similar data problems[13]. It runs four principal platforms: Gotham serves defense and intelligence agencies by pulling many data sources into operational decisions; Foundry is the enterprise data operations platform, built around the Ontology, a layer that maps data, logic and actions into one model of the business; AIP, the generative AI platform launched in 2023, lets customers connect third-party or self-hosted large language models on top of the Ontology, build agents and automations, and is bundled with Foundry, Gotham and Apollo; and Apollo continuously delivers software into almost any cloud or on-premises environment[13][14]. At the end of 2025 Palantir had 4,429 full-time employees, 28% of them outside the United States[15]. Management describes current demand as "AI sovereignty": enterprises want to own their data, logic, actions and security rather than hand proprietary data to a model vendor[16].

Palantir reports government and commercial segments by customer type, and U.S. customers are quickly taking a larger share of revenue. Revenue in 2025 was $4.475 billion: the government segment contributed $2.402 billion, up 53%, the commercial segment $2.073 billion, up 60%, and U.S. commercial revenue was about $1.5 billion, up 109%[17][18]. By geography, U.S. revenue was $3.320 billion, or 74%, the United Kingdom $427 million and the rest of the world $728 million[19]. Of $1.935 billion in second-quarter 2026 revenue, the government segment contributed $990 million ($809 million U.S. government and $181 million international government) and the commercial segment $945 million ($764 million U.S. commercial and $182 million international commercial)[20][7], while U.S. customers accounted for 81%, up from 73% a year earlier[21]. The top three customers together generated 16% of revenue in the first half of 2026[22].

The business model starts with free trials that Palantir funds itself and turns them into multi-year subscriptions. Palantir usually runs pilots and AIP bootcamps at its own expense so customers can build a working workflow on their own data within days, then works to convert them into contracts of one to five years[23]. Contracts are billed as Palantir Cloud hosted subscriptions, software licenses in the customer's environment including operations and maintenance, and on-demand professional services, and revenue is generally recognized ratably over the contract term, so one quarter's bookings mainly shape revenue over several later quarters[24]. Delivery relies on forward-deployed engineers and third-party cloud hosting, and cost of revenue consists mainly of pay for operations and services staff, subcontractors, field personnel and hosting fees[25]. Government contracts commonly let the government terminate for convenience at any time, and the U.S. federal government cannot exercise contract options more than one year in advance[26].

Financial History and Current Position

Palantir's revenue growth has accelerated every year since bottoming in 2023, and profits swung from losses to gains over the same period. Revenue for 2021 through 2025 was $1.542 billion, $1.906 billion, $2.225 billion, $2.866 billion and $4.475 billion; growth slowed to 17% in 2023 and then climbed each year to 56% in 2025[19][27]. GAAP operating results moved from losses of $411 million in 2021 and $161 million in 2022 to income of $120 million in 2023, $310 million in 2024 and $1.414 billion in 2025[27][28]. Gross margin in 2025 was 82%[29], adjusted operating income excluding $684 million of stock-based compensation and $156 million of related employer taxes was $2.254 billion, a 50% margin[30], and net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.625 billion[27].

Cash generation and contract backlog in 2025 laid the base for later growth. Operating cash flow for the year was $2.134 billion[31], cash, cash equivalents and short-term U.S. Treasury securities totaled $7.2 billion at year-end, and Palantir carried no interest-bearing debt[32]. Total remaining deal value at year-end was $11.2 billion, up 105%[33], and remaining performance obligations were $4.1 billion[34].

Growth in the first half of 2026 ran clearly faster than in full-year 2025. First-half revenue rose 89% to $3.568 billion, GAAP operating income was $1.666 billion[20][35] and operating cash flow was $2.115 billion[36]. First-quarter revenue was $1.633 billion with a 60% adjusted operating margin[37]; second-quarter revenue was $1.935 billion, with a 47% GAAP operating margin, a 62% adjusted operating margin and $1.062 billion of net income attributable to common stockholders[3], while $0.02 of the $0.41 in adjusted EPS came from unrealized gains on the SpaceX stake[38] and adjusted free cash flow was $1.220 billion, a 63% margin[39]. At the end of June, cash and short-term Treasuries stood at $9.2 billion[2], total remaining deal value was $13.1 billion, up 83%, and remaining performance obligations were $4.9 billion, up 103%[40].

Operating Model

Palantir's revenue follows a rhythm in which bookings first enter backlog and are then recognized ratably over the contract term. Revenue splits into U.S. government, international government, U.S. commercial and international commercial, and each piece equals the ratable recognition of contracts already in force plus the portion of new and expanded contracts that starts recognizing in the period[24]. Second-quarter total contract value (TCV) was $3.373 billion, up 49%, of which U.S. commercial was $2.132 billion, up 153%, and U.S. commercial remaining deal value (RDV) reached $6.238 billion, up 124% year over year and 27% sequentially[2]. Expansion comes mostly from existing customers: of the $437 million year-over-year increase in second-quarter government revenue, $428 million came from customers in place at the end of 2025, and of the $495 million commercial increase, $407 million came from existing customers[41]; average trailing-12-month revenue from the top 20 customers was $124 million, up 67%[42], and net dollar retention (NDR) was 157%[40]. Government revenue also depends on appropriations, continuing resolutions and procurement timing around the September 30 federal fiscal year-end, which usually brings year-end orders in the third quarter[43].

Profit is set in three layers: delivery costs, segment contribution, and research and administrative costs that are not allocated to segments. Of the year-over-year increase in second-quarter cost of revenue, $89 million came from third-party cloud hosting because Palantir began hosting for one government customer[11]; gross margin excluding stock-based compensation fell from 88% in the first quarter to 86%, compared with 82% a year earlier[10]. Segment contribution equals segment revenue minus allocated cost of revenue and sales and marketing excluding stock-based compensation; in the second quarter the government contribution margin was 71% and commercial 78%[44], versus 66% for both in full-year 2025[45]. Adjusted operating income equals revenue minus all costs excluding stock-based compensation and related employer taxes; second-quarter adjusted expense was $741 million, up 14% sequentially, adjusted operating income was $1.194 billion, and subtracting $265 million of stock-based compensation and $17 million of employer taxes leaves GAAP operating income of $912 million[46]. GAAP net income also includes $78 million of interest income, fair-value changes on investments including the SpaceX stake, and only $15 million of income tax, which is so low because Palantir still carries a full allowance against its U.S. and U.K. deferred tax assets[35][47].

Cash flow rests on fast invoicing and minimal capital spending, but long-term cloud hosting commitments are growing. Operating cash flow equals net income plus non-cash items such as stock-based compensation plus working-capital changes; Palantir usually invoices soon after signing, and in the first half accounts receivable rose $434 million and contract liabilities rose $257 million, with operating cash flow of $2.115 billion[36]. Adjusted free cash flow equals operating cash flow plus cash employer taxes on stock compensation minus capital expenditure; it was $1.220 billion in the second quarter, with capital expenditure of only $15 million[39]. The share repurchase program was terminated in January 2026[48], and in March 2026 Palantir amended a cloud hosting agreement, committing to spend at least $5.6 billion over ten years with annual minimums of $268 million to $979 million[49].

Industry and Competitive Position

Palantir's main competitor is its customers' own internal development teams, with other software companies coming second. In its annual report, Palantir says enterprises often try to build data platforms themselves with custom systems, outside consultants, IT service providers, packaged software and open source before buying Palantir after those efforts fail; other competitors include large enterprise software companies, defense contractors and systems integrators, and competition turns on platform capability, data security, speed of deployment, product innovation, price and customer experience[50]. The sales cycle usually runs six to nine months and can take a year or more for some customers[51]. In enterprise AI, management positions Palantir as the layer that turns large language models into real operating value and argues that enterprises should own their data, logic and actions[16].

Palantir's penetration of U.S. defense spending is still small, while its growth is heavily concentrated in the United States. More than 25,000 builders now develop applications on the Maven platform, and in the second quarter a government program of record chose Maven as its operating platform for the first time; management said Palantir's trailing-12-month revenue from the Department of War is still less than 0.25% of the Pentagon's budget[52]. By contrast, second-quarter international commercial revenue grew 26% year over year but only 2% sequentially to $182 million[53]. Public disclosure covers growth across Palantir's own regions and customer groups but offers no peer data on the same basis, so its share change against competitors cannot be quantified.

Core Debates

U.S. commercial bookings hit $2.132 billion in the second quarter, nearly $800 million above the prior record, and revenue rose 28% sequentially. Can those contracts keep converting into double-digit sequential growth in the third quarter, so the $3.424 billion full-year floor does not depend on a fourth-quarter sprint?

U.S. commercial is Palantir's fastest-growing and most aggressively guided business, and its conversion speed largely decides whether full-year guidance is met. Second-quarter U.S. commercial revenue was $764 million, 39.5% of total revenue, up 149% year over year and 28% sequentially[7]. Full-year guidance of more than $3.424 billion requires at least $2.065 billion in the second half, 52% more than the $1.359 billion delivered in the first half[4][8]. The commercial segment's 78% contribution margin is higher than government's, so U.S. commercial growth also feeds directly into adjusted operating income[44].

Second-quarter bookings clearly outran revenue, and there are two ways to read that gap. U.S. commercial bookings were $2.132 billion, up 153%, trailing-12-month bookings were $5.964 billion, up 117%, and RDV was $6.238 billion, up 27% sequentially[7]; across the company, 73 of the 220 deals worth $1 million or more exceeded $10 million[16]. Management's explanation is that enterprises worry about handing proprietary data to model vendors, so they are turning to AIP to keep control of data and models and are signing large contracts soon after bootcamps; one multinational technology company expanded from a single operating company to its full portfolio and signed a three-year deal worth nearly $370 million[54]. The other reading is that the jump in bookings is concentrated in multi-year contracts with a few large customers: the U.S. commercial customer count reached 653, but its year-over-year growth slowed from 42% in the first quarter to 35%[7][8]. If so, sequential revenue growth would fall back as those large deals settle into ratable recognition, and bookings would struggle to repeat the second-quarter level.

The path from bookings to profit is long, and second-quarter bookings will take several quarters to show up fully in revenue. Enterprises that want control of their data and models start with AIP bootcamps and self-funded pilots, then move to one-to-five-year subscriptions; contracts enter U.S. commercial RDV, are recognized ratably as revenue, are delivered by forward-deployed engineers and cloud hosting, and finally convert into adjusted operating income through the 78% commercial contribution margin[23][24][44]. In the first quarter one program moved from U.S. commercial to U.S. government, and excluding that shift, first-quarter U.S. commercial growth would have been 143%[55], which shows that customer-group figures can be distorted by program transfers. The open question is whether the 81% sequential jump in second-quarter U.S. commercial bookings reflects broader demand or simply the timing of a few large deals[6].

The third quarter tests this debate through revenue, bookings, RDV and customer count. The points to watch are whether U.S. commercial revenue reaches $1.03 billion, or at least $900 million; whether U.S. commercial bookings hold above about $1.33 billion; whether RDV keeps rising sequentially; and whether customer additions and NDR improve together. If U.S. commercial revenue falls below $900 million, bookings drop under the first quarter's $1.176 billion and RDV declines sequentially, the view that bookings are outrunning revenue and growth can be sustained would not hold[37]. Conversely, if revenue exceeds $1.03 billion and customer additions do not slow, worries about large-deal concentration would look overdone.

U.S. government revenue grew 90% in the second quarter, but Palantir began paying cloud hosting for one government customer and adjusted gross margin slipped from 88% to 86%. With the federal fiscal year ending in the third quarter, can government orders keep lifting revenue without hosting costs dragging margins further?

U.S. government is Palantir's largest single revenue source, yet it has no separate figure in full-year guidance and can only be backed out of total revenue. Second-quarter U.S. government revenue was $809 million, 41.8% of total revenue, up 90% year over year and 18% sequentially[7]. Each 1-point change in the government contribution margin moves quarterly contribution by roughly $10 million on second-quarter government segment revenue of $990 million[20][44].

Second-quarter government growth came mainly from expanding existing programs while hosting costs rose at the same time, and there are two readings of that mix. Of the $437 million year-over-year increase in government segment revenue, $428 million came from customers in place at the end of 2025[41], and Maven now has more than 25,000 builders and its first program of record running on the platform[52]. Over the same period, cloud hosting in cost of revenue rose $89 million year over year, adjusted gross margin fell to 86% and the government contribution margin slipped from about 73.3% in the first quarter to 71%[11][10][44]. Management's explanation is that taking on hosting speeds time to value, gives the customer cost certainty and expands future workflows[9]. The other reading is that part of the government revenue growth comes from turning hosting costs into Palantir revenue at a lower margin, and that bookings outside U.S. commercial, about $1.241 billion, were roughly 13% below the approximately $1.42 billion implied for the second quarter of 2025 by Palantir's disclosed growth rates, so new awards have not kept pace with revenue and fiscal year-end orders need to arrive in the third quarter[2].

Government revenue transmission depends on two lines: order timing and hosting costs. Defense and civilian agencies adopting AI faster, with programs such as Maven expanding and year-end procurement, bring expansions and new awards that lift U.S. government revenue; at the same time, hosting for one government customer raises cost of revenue and pushes down adjusted gross margin and the government contribution margin[43][11]. Appropriations, continuing resolutions and termination-for-convenience clauses set the pace of orders and therefore the government revenue base for later quarters[56][26]. The open question is whether the hosting cost is a one-time switch or will keep growing as more government customers adopt it.

The third quarter includes the September 30 federal fiscal year-end, which makes it the direct test of this debate[57]. The points to watch are whether U.S. government revenue grows at least 12% sequentially, whether the government contribution margin recovers to 72% or drops below 69%, how adjusted gross margin and incremental hosting costs move, and whether bookings outside U.S. commercial return to about $1.42 billion. If U.S. government revenue grows less than 12% sequentially and the contribution margin falls below 69%, government growth is slowing while hosting costs expand; if revenue grows at least 18% sequentially and the contribution margin returns above 72%, concerns that hosting is eroding profits would look overdone.

Palantir has flagged a sharp third-quarter expense ramp as new hires start, with guidance implying adjusted expenses up about 17% sequentially and adjusted operating margin easing from 62% to about 60%. Can revenue growth absorb that investment, and will stock-based compensation and dilution rise with it?

Adjusted operating margin underpins Palantir's full-year profit guidance, and stock-based compensation determines how far GAAP profit falls short of it. Adjusted operating margin is half of Palantir's "Rule of 40" score, revenue growth plus adjusted margin, which was 155% in the second quarter[16], and it is the basis for full-year adjusted operating income guidance of $4.889-$4.897 billion[4]. Second-quarter stock-based compensation was $265 million, and with buybacks terminated, dilution falls directly on earnings per share[48].

Second-quarter expenses still grew far more slowly than revenue, but management has warned of a sharp third-quarter increase, and that warning can be read two ways. Adjusted expense was $741 million, up 14% sequentially and 37% year over year, driven mainly by AI platform investment and technical hiring, and adjusted operating income was $1.194 billion, a 62% margin[46]. Stock-based compensation was $265 million, up 66% year over year and equal to 13.7% of revenue, below 15.3% for full-year 2025[58][28], and common shares rose 0.5% in the first half[59]. Management's explanation is that the third-quarter rise is the usual seasonal effect of new hires starting each fall, and that Palantir will keep GAAP profitability while investing in talent and R&D[46]. The other reading is that with revenue growing extremely fast, spending on hiring, cloud hosting and marketing is also accelerating; if third-quarter revenue only meets guidance while expenses rise as planned, margins would fall for a second straight quarter and operating leverage would begin to weaken from a high base.

Expenses, stock-based compensation and cash flow each reach third-quarter results through a separate line. Fall new-hire starts, AI platform R&D and marketing push up adjusted expense, and the adjusted operating margin holds only if sequential revenue growth covers the added cost[46]. New equity grants widen the gap between GAAP operating income and adjusted income and add to the share count; unrecognized expense on restricted stock units was $916 million at the end of June, to be recognized over about three years[60]. Billing and collection timing drives adjusted free cash flow, which was $1.220 billion with a 63% margin in the second quarter and $925 million with a 57% margin in the first quarter[39][37].

The third quarter calls for watching four numbers together: margin, expenses, stock-based compensation and cash flow. Based on guidance, third-quarter adjusted expense comes to about $868 million, up roughly 17% sequentially, with adjusted operating margin easing from 62% to about 60%[4]. The points to watch are whether the margin holds at 62% or slips below about 60%, whether adjusted expense exceeds $868 million, whether stock-based compensation returns above 15.3% of revenue, and whether adjusted free cash flow reaches $1.28 billion. If adjusted operating income falls below $1.292 billion or stock-based compensation exceeds 15.3% of revenue, spending is running ahead of revenue; if the margin holds at 62% and cash flow is at least $1.28 billion, worries about the expense ramp would look overdone.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is that growth is overly concentrated in the United States while international commercial has nearly stalled. Second-quarter international commercial revenue was $182 million, up only 2% sequentially, international government revenue was $181 million[53], and the U.S. share of revenue rose from 74% in 2025 to 81%[19][21]. Palantir's quarterly filing warns that public and political scrutiny could lead some customers or third-party service providers to stop working with it or renegotiate contracts[61], which would hit international commercial and international government revenue first. If third-quarter international commercial revenue grows at least 5% sequentially and Palantir discloses no customer terminations driven by public criticism, this concern would not hold.

The second risk is that GAAP net income and EPS are inflated by non-operating items. Second-quarter interest and other income totaled $169 million, pre-tax income was $1.081 billion, and income tax was only $15 million[35]; Palantir still carries a full allowance against its U.S. and U.K. deferred tax assets and says it is reasonably possible that it will release all or part of it in the future, after which its tax rate would rise[47]. Unrealized gains on the SpaceX stake added $0.02 to second-quarter adjusted EPS[38]. If the third-quarter adjusted operating margin is no lower than the roughly 60% implied by guidance and investment gains contribute no more than $0.01 to adjusted EPS, concerns about earnings quality would ease.

The third risk is that U.S. commercial bookings are concentrated in a few large multi-year contracts, so bookings could fall back after the big deals and conversion of self-funded pilots and bootcamps could fall short of management's account. Pilots and bootcamps are usually run at Palantir's own expense with no guaranteed return, and those costs sit in sales and marketing[23]; the sales cycle usually lasts six to nine months and exceeds a year for some customers[51]. This risk bears directly on U.S. commercial revenue, $764 million in the second quarter, and on the $3.424 billion full-year guidance floor[7][4]. If third-quarter U.S. commercial bookings are at least about $1.33 billion and the U.S. commercial customer count rises by more than 37 sequentially, this concern would not hold.

The fourth risk is that delayed appropriations, continuing resolutions or shutdowns, along with the government's right to terminate for convenience, could disrupt fiscal year-end orders and later revenue timing. Palantir's quarterly filing warns that U.S. government spending on defense and other programs is uncertain and may not stay at government fiscal year 2026 levels[56], and the chief technology officer said on the first-quarter call that history suggests a continuing resolution is likely[62]. This exposure covers U.S. government revenue, $809 million in the second quarter, and government remaining deal value, $4.4 billion at the end of 2025 excluding $12.3 billion of unfunded indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity contract capacity[33]. If third-quarter U.S. government revenue grows at least 12% sequentially and Palantir discloses no revenue delays from appropriations or terminations, this risk would not have materialized.

The fifth risk is that equity grants accelerate without buybacks to offset them, steadily diluting shareholders. Second-quarter GAAP operating income of $912 million was $282 million below adjusted operating income[3]; common shares stood at 2.403 billion at the end of June[59], and the repurchase program ended in January 2026[48]. If third-quarter stock-based compensation is no more than 13.7% of revenue and the share count rises no more than 0.25% from the end of June, dilution concerns would ease.

What to Watch Next

• U.S. commercial conversion, revenue: second-quarter baseline $764 million, up 28% sequentially. Watch whether it reaches $1.03 billion, or at least $900 million. Above $1.03 billion with steady customer additions supports durable growth; below $900 million weakens it.
• U.S. commercial conversion, bookings and RDV: bookings $2.132 billion and RDV $6.238 billion. Watch whether bookings hold above about $1.33 billion and RDV rises sequentially. Bookings below $1.176 billion with RDV falling sequentially would point to a second quarter driven by a few large deals.
• U.S. commercial conversion, customer count and NDR: 653 customers and 157% NDR. Watch whether customer additions and NDR improve together. More than 37 net new customers sequentially would indicate demand is broadening rather than concentrating.
• Government fiscal year-end and hosting, U.S. government revenue and contribution margin: $809 million, up 18% sequentially, with a 71% contribution margin. Watch for at least 12% sequential growth and whether the margin returns to 72% or drops below 69%. Growth under 12% with a margin below 69% signals weakening; growth of at least 18% with a margin above 72% eases the concern.
• Government fiscal year-end and hosting, adjusted gross margin and bookings outside U.S. commercial: 86% and about $1.241 billion. Watch incremental hosting costs and whether bookings return to about $1.42 billion. A further margin decline with bookings stuck near $1.2 billion would mean pressure on both hosting and awards.
• Expense ramp and stock compensation, adjusted operating income and adjusted expense: $1.194 billion at a 62% margin, with expense of $741 million. Watch whether the margin holds at 62% or falls below about 60%, and whether expense exceeds $868 million. Adjusted operating income below $1.292 billion would mean spending is running ahead of revenue.
• Expense ramp and stock compensation, stock-based compensation and adjusted free cash flow: $265 million, or 13.7% of revenue, and $1.220 billion of cash flow. Watch whether the ratio returns above 15.3% and whether cash flow reaches $1.28 billion. A 62% margin with cash flow of at least $1.28 billion would make expense worries look overdone.
• Cross-cutting risks, international commercial revenue and share count: $182 million, up 2% sequentially, and 2.403 billion shares. Watch whether international commercial grows at least 5% sequentially and whether the share count rises no more than 0.25%. Meeting both would ease concentration and dilution risk.

Conclusion

Palantir grows by turning enterprise and government AI adoption into multi-year contracts and then recognizing those bookings ratably as revenue, and its current financial position is very strong. Second-quarter revenue rose 93% to $1.935 billion with a 62% adjusted operating margin[3], adjusted free cash flow was $1.220 billion[39], and cash and short-term Treasuries reached $9.2 billion at the end of June[2]. The central unresolved relationship is whether record U.S. commercial bookings keep converting into revenue while the third-quarter expense ramp and government hosting costs keep margins from falling below the roughly 60% implied by guidance.

Two independent assessments published after the second-quarter results read these numbers from two angles, bookings and the makeup of profit. Mitch Ashley of The Futurum Group argues that second-quarter U.S. commercial growth is not a one-off: bookings and U.S. commercial remaining deal value are growing faster than recognized revenue, signed multi-year contracts will convert to revenue over several quarters, and simultaneous growth in government and commercial reduces Palantir's reliance on lumpy large government orders; he sees the remaining disagreement as how much the market is willing to pay for that growth rather than execution[63]. Mike Thrift of Beancount.io focuses on how profit is built: he argues that operating leverage comes from expenses growing far more slowly than revenue rather than from cost cuts, but that the 55% net margin exceeds the 47% operating margin because of interest income on cash and an effective tax rate of about 1.4%; at a 21% rate, second-quarter net income would be about 20% lower on the same pre-tax income, and he also treats the rise of the U.S. revenue share to 81% as a concentration risk[64]. The two authors do not conflict on execution; they differ in focus. Futurum's reading maps onto the debate over whether U.S. commercial bookings keep converting, while Beancount.io's reading is a reminder that third-quarter earnings quality should be judged by adjusted operating margin and expense growth, not net income. Both are outside interpretations, not facts, and neither represents a majority market view.

A specific set of results would materially strengthen the current understanding: third-quarter U.S. commercial revenue above $1.03 billion, bookings holding above about $1.33 billion with RDV still rising, U.S. government revenue up at least 18% sequentially with the government contribution margin back above 72%, and an adjusted operating margin held at 62% with stock-based compensation no more than 13.7% of revenue. Conversely, if U.S. commercial revenue falls below $900 million, bookings drop under $1.176 billion with RDV declining sequentially, U.S. government revenue grows less than 12% sequentially and adjusted operating income comes in below $1.292 billion, the view that bookings lead revenue and expenses can be absorbed would weaken materially. If results land between those outcomes, the path to full-year guidance would depend on whether the roughly $2.418-$2.430 billion of fourth-quarter revenue implied by guidance materializes[4].

Sources

[1] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-02) · PLTR 2026-11-02 call · 2026-10-02 · Drillr earnings calendar

[2] PLTR 8-K filed 2026-08-03 · Q2 2026 highlights · 2026-08-03 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/pltr-20260803.htm

[3] PLTR 8-K filed 2026-08-03 · Q2 2026 financial summary · 2026-08-03 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/pltr-20260803.htm

[4] PLTR 8-K filed 2026-08-03 · Q3 and FY2026 outlook · 2026-08-03 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/pltr-20260803.htm

[5] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-02) · PLTR quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-02 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[6] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CFO on US commercial TCV record · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CFO on US commercial results · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] PLTR Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-04 · CFO on US commercial results · 2026-05-04 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CFO on adjusted gross margin and cloud hosting · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 gross margin excluding SBC · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[11] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 cost of revenue and cloud hosting · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[12] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 stock-based compensation · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[13] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · business overview and platforms · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[14] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · platform descriptions: Foundry and AIP · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[15] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · employees · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[16] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CRO on deal counts and large deals · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[17] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · customers and FY2025 segment and US mix · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[18] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · FY2025 revenue by segment and US commercial · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[19] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · FY2025 revenue by geography · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[20] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 revenue by segment · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[21] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 revenue by geography · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[22] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · top three customers · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[23] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · pilots, bootcamps and account management · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[24] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · revenue recognition · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[25] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · cost of revenue composition · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[26] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · government contracting rights · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[27] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · FY2025 results overview · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[28] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · FY2025 stock-based compensation · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[29] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · FY2025 cost of revenue and gross margin · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[30] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · FY2025 adjusted income from operations reconciliation · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[31] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · FY2025 operating cash flow · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[32] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · FY2025 liquidity · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[33] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · total remaining deal value · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[34] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · remaining performance obligations · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[35] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 income statement · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[36] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · H1 2026 cash flow · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[37] PLTR 8-K filed 2026-05-04 · Q1 2026 highlights · 2026-05-04 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000026/pltr-20260504.htm

[38] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CFO on SpaceX gain and SBC · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[39] PLTR 8-K filed 2026-08-03 · Q2 2026 adjusted free cash flow reconciliation · 2026-08-03 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/pltr-20260803.htm

[40] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CFO on bookings, NDR and RDV · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[41] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 revenue drivers and existing customers · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[42] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · customer count and top twenty customers · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[43] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · seasonality and government fiscal year end · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[44] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 segment contribution · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[45] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · FY2025 segment contribution · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[46] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CFO on margin and Q3 expense ramp · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[47] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · income taxes and valuation allowance · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[48] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · share repurchase program · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[49] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · amended cloud hosting commitment · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[50] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · competition · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[51] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · sales cycle · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[52] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CTO on Maven and Department of War · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[53] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CFO on international and government revenue · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[54] PLTR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-03 · CRO on US commercial deal examples · 2026-08-03 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[55] PLTR Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-04 · US commercial program transition to government · 2026-05-04 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[56] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · government budget and spending risk · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[57] PLTR 10-K filed 2026-02-17 · seasonality · 2026-02-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm

[58] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 stock-based compensation by line · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[59] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · Q2 2026 equity and shares outstanding · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[60] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · unrecognized RSU expense · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[61] PLTR 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 · reputation and external scrutiny · 2026-08-04 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm

[62] PLTR Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-04 · CTO on defense budget and continuing resolution · 2026-05-04 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[63] Futurum Group 2026-08-05 · Palantir Q2 FY 2026 Earnings Surge on US Commercial AI Demand · 2026-08-05 · The Futurum Group · https://futurumgroup.com/insights/palantir-q2-fy-2026-earnings-surge-on-us-commercial-ai-demand/

[64] Beancount.io 2026-08-22 · Palantir FY2026 Q2 Earnings analysis · 2026-08-22 · Beancount.io · https://beancount.io/blog/2026/08/22/palantir-fy2026-q2-earnings-analysis