BBVAFinancial ServicesBanking — Emerging Markets·Sep 3, 2026·6 min read

[BBVA] BBVA Thesis 2026: Record Profit Cements Industry-Leading Return on Equity

BBVA FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $36.93B revenue (+4%). Net income $10.51B (+5%); €10.5B record annual profit (+4.5%); Diluted EPS $1.69. RoTE 19.3% industry-leading. Loan growth +16.2% cc / +11.7% reported. CET1 13.42% (40-50bp regulatory boost expected Q4). 11.5M record new gross customers in 2025. Geographic profit: Spain €4.1B (loan +8%, cost-to-income 33.1%); Mexico €5.5B / Q4 €1.4B (25.6% market share, loan accel Q4); Turkey €805M (cost of risk 194bp); South America €726M (Peru+Colombia growth, Argentina deteriorating); Rest of Business €627M. €97B sustainable business 9M. Capital return $5.95B (div $4.03B + buyback $1.92B +25%). Total debt $81.8B (down $62B from FY24). UBS downgraded Buy→Neutral April 20.

BBVA: FY25 Deep Dive

FY25 revenue $36.93B (+4%) — net income $10.51B (+5%); record €10.5B annual profit (4.5% YoY). Diluted EPS $1.69. RoTE 19.3% (industry-leading). Loan growth +16.2% cc / +11.7% reported. CET1 13.42%. Reached record 11.5M new gross customers in 2025. UBS downgraded Buy → Neutral April 20.

Key Takeaways

BBVA closed fiscal 2025 (calendar year ended December 31, 2025) at $36.93 billion of revenue, up 4% YoY (USD reported) — though underlying constant-currency growth was stronger as European bank. Net income reached €10.5 billion (+4.5% YoY) — a record annual profit despite falling interest rates. Net income (USD) $10.51B (+5%); diluted EPS $1.69 (vs $1.68 FY24). Operating income $16.23B. The structural read: RoTE 19.3% — industry-leading in European banking; loan portfolio +16.2% at constant euros / +11.7% reported. CET1 ratio 13.42% end-FY25, with 40-50bp regulatory boost expected in Q4. The strategic FY25 narrative: record 11.5 million new gross customers acquired in 2025 — strong cross-sell potential in Spain + Mexico. Strategic transformation: 8 initiatives launched (digital adviser + AI assistant for bankers); leveraging AI + innovation for radical customer perspective. Geographic concentration drives the diversified earnings: Spain €4.1B (loan +8%); Mexico €1.4B Q4 net profit (25.6% market share); Turkey €805M (cost of risk 194bp); South America €726M (Peru + Colombia growth, Argentina deteriorating); Rest of Business €627M. Capital return: dividends + buybacks — resumed share buyback in 2025. Capital allocation: $4.03B in dividends + $1.92B in buybacks = $5.95B total return. Total debt $81.8B (down significantly from $144.4B FY24 — major balance sheet restructuring). Sell-side coverage in window: UBS downgraded Buy → Neutral on April 20 (no PT disclosed) — the structural rating move in window. No consensus PT disclosed in dataset.


Main business structure

BBVA reports business segments primarily by geography:

SegmentFY25 Net ProfitKey Drivers
Spain€4.1BLoan growth +8% YoY; cost-to-income 33.1%
Mexico€5.5B (FY) / €1.4B Q425.6% total market share; loan growth accel Q4
Turkey€805MNet interest margin recovery; tax code change Q4
South America€726MPeru + Colombia growth; Argentina deteriorating
Rest of Business (CIB, Italy/Germany digital)€627MStrong NII +15.9% YoY
Total Net Profit€10.5B(+4.5% YoY)

Spain (~39% of profit)

  • FY25 net profit €4.1B — core franchise
  • Loan growth +8% YoY (FY25); Q4 profit >€1B
  • Cost-to-income ratio 33.1% (industry-leading efficiency)
  • Strong asset quality: cost of risk 34bp YoY
  • Market share gains in profitable segments

Mexico (~52% of profit — the engine)

  • FY25 net profit ~€5.5B (Q4 alone €1.4B)
  • 25.6% total market share in Mexico (BBVA's largest geography)
  • 8% core revenue growth FY25
  • Loan book growth accelerated Q4
  • Cost-to-income 30%
  • Asset quality: cost of risk improved guidance to <340bp

Turkey (~8%)

  • FY25 net profit €805M
  • Net interest income recovery on rate environment
  • Cost of risk 194bp (elevated; managing FX + inflation)
  • Effective tax rate increased Q4 due to tax code change

South America (~7%)

  • FY25 net profit €726M (Peru + Colombia growth; Argentina deteriorating)
  • Cost-to-income 43.9%
  • Asset quality trends improving regionally

Rest of Business (~6%)

  • CIB + Italy/Germany digital +25% revenue YoY
  • Strong NII +15.9% YoY
  • NPL ratio 18bp; cost of risk 10bp (very solid)

Strategic Transformation

  • 11.5M gross new customers acquired in FY25 — record
  • 8 strategic initiatives: digital adviser + AI assistant for bankers + others
  • Sustainability: €97B channeled into sustainable business in 9M
  • Capital position: CET1 13.42%, expected 40-50bp regulatory boost in Q4

Capital Return

  • Resumed share buyback in 2025
  • Dividend: ~$4.03B FY25
  • Capital return + balance sheet restructuring (total debt down $62B from FY24)

Customer concentration. Highly fragmented — Spanish + Mexican retail customers + corporate banking + emerging markets exposure.

Geographic mix. Mexico ~52% of profit; Spain ~39%; Turkey ~8%; South America ~7%; Rest 6%.

Scale anchors. ~125,000 employees globally. ~75M+ customers. Operations in 25+ countries.


Key core metrics (3-year trend)

1. Revenue + earnings

FY23FY24FY25
Revenue ($B)58.1935.4836.93
YoY (USD)-39%+4%
Net income ($B)8.0210.0510.51
YoY+25%+5%

The FY24 revenue decline reflects accounting reclassifications + lower benchmark rates; net income continued growth template.

2. RoTE + Loan Growth

end-FY24end-FY25
RoTE~17%19.3%
Loan growth (cc YoY)+16.2%
Loan growth (reported YoY)+11.7%
CET1~12.8%13.42%

RoTE 19.3% is among the highest in European banking. Loan growth +16% reflects emerging markets demand + Spain recovery.

3. Capital allocation

FY24FY25
Dividends ($B)3.914.03
Buybacks ($B)1.531.92
Total debt ($B)144.481.8

Dividend +3% YoY; buyback pace +25%. Total debt declined ~$62B reflecting balance sheet optimization.


Market evaluation

Sell-side coverage (Feb-April 2026 covered events):

  • UBS: downgraded Buy → Neutral on April 20 (no PT disclosed) — the structural rating change in window

Buy-side positioning. BBVA is a core European bank holding paired with SAN, BNP, ING. Trades at premium to discount-banking peers on emerging markets exposure (Mexico) + RoTE quality + strong customer acquisition. Short interest below 1.5% of float.


FY25 corporate structure: industry-leading RoTE + Mexico engine + record customer acquisition

FY25 was the year BBVA's "Mexico engine + Spain stability + emerging markets resilience" template printed at scale: record €10.5B net profit (+4.5%); industry-leading RoTE 19.3%; loan growth +16.2% cc; record 11.5M new gross customers acquired; CET1 13.42%. Mexico ~52% of profit + Spain ~39% provide the core earnings duopoly with diversification across Turkey + South America + CIB. The strategic transformation (AI + digital + sustainability) is well-underway. The two FY26 watch items: (1) does the Mexico market share stability + loan growth pace sustain on tougher comparisons + macro environment shifts; (2) does Argentina deterioration accelerate or stabilize. The Q1 FY26 earnings print this week is the proximate event for measuring continued profit growth + RoTE durability + customer acquisition + Mexico vs Spain trends + UBS rating-downgrade thesis validation/refutation.

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