[ING] ING: Can Its Deposit Margin Hold Up as Savings Campaigns Cost More?

ING is an Amsterdam-based European universal bank that serves nearly 41 million customers across 10 retail markets and more than 100 wholesale banking markets, funding mortgages and corporate loans mainly with customer deposits[1]. According to the Drillr earnings calendar, ING will report results for the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026, on 2026-10-29[2]. In the latest disclosed quarter, the second quarter of 2026, total income was €6,284 million, up 10.2% year on year, including commercial net interest income of €4,174 million, up 10.7%[3]. Net fee and commission income reached €1,278 million, up 14%; profit before tax was €2,919 million, up 23%; net profit was €1,947 million; quarterly return on tangible equity (ROTE) was 17.0%; and the CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 13.1%[4]. On July 30, management raised its 2026 outlook: total income above €24.5 billion, including about €5 billion of fee income, operating expenses (excluding incidental items after the first quarter) of €12.6-12.8 billion, full-year ROTE above 15% and a CET1 ratio of about 13%, all excluding the impact of the intended Russia exit and other incidental items[5]. Analyst data compiled by Drillr show an average third-quarter total income estimate of 6.471 billion (range 6.383-6.505 billion, from only 2 analysts) and an average full-year 2026 estimate of 25.186 billion (9 analysts); the table does not label the currency, but the scale matches ING's euro reporting[6].

Three things matter most in the third-quarter results, and the ING deposit margin comes first. First, can the average liability margin hold the second quarter's 1.07%? It has risen for two straight quarters from 0.99% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and lifted commercial net interest income, but the company has said campaign-related deposit costs were higher in the second quarter than in the first[7]; if those costs offset the hedging tailwind, the main basis for the raised income outlook weakens. Second, can risk costs stay below the through-the-cycle average of about 20 basis points? Group risk costs were only 15 basis points in the second quarter[8], but Wholesale Banking rose to 27 basis points and the low retail figure partly reflected a sale of non-performing loans and an overlay release[9], which determines how much profit survives loan growth of about 8% annualised. Third, will the third-quarter report announce another additional distribution with CET1 at 13.1%? The €1.0 billion buyback ends no later than October 26[10], just before the results, so the presence and size of a new distribution will show whether profit and capital optimisation can keep supporting shareholder returns.

Company Background and Business Structure

ING is a deposit-funded, mobile-led banking group that operates in 40 countries. ING Groep N.V. runs its business through ING Bank, where more than 60,000 employees provide payments, savings, insurance, investments, mortgages, trade finance and financial markets services to individuals, small and mid-sized businesses, mid-corporates and financial institutions[1]. The Netherlands is ING's largest market, where its main competitors are ABN AMRO and Rabobank; in Germany, Spain, Italy, Australia and other markets, ING competes with local incumbent banks through a direct and mobile banking model.

Retail Banking generates about two-thirds of income, and Wholesale Banking provides most of the rest. ING reports six segments: in 2025, Retail Netherlands, Retail Belgium (including Luxembourg), Retail Germany and Retail Other generated total income of €4,968 million, €2,674 million, €2,991 million and €4,908 million, together about 67% of the group's €23,035 million; Wholesale Banking generated €7,009 million, about 30%, and the Corporate Line €484 million[11]. Retail Other covers Spain, Italy, Poland, Romania, Australia and other markets, while Wholesale Banking provides lending, daily banking and trade finance, financial markets and treasury services to large corporates and financial institutions.

ING's balance sheet is dominated by residential mortgages and corporate loans, and customer deposits fund almost all of it. Total assets were €1,161 billion at the end of June[12]; customer loans were €767.3 billion, including €390.5 billion of residential mortgages, €310.6 billion of corporate lending, €41.1 billion of other personal lending and €25.2 billion to public authorities[13]; customer deposits were €773.3 billion, including €399.8 billion of savings, €242.6 billion of current accounts and €127.4 billion of time deposits[14]. The bank funds loans with deposits, invests stable deposits in interest-rate hedges through a replicating portfolio, earns lending and deposit margins, and then collects fees by cross-selling investment, payment and insurance products to primary-account customers.

Recent consolidation and stake changes have centred on wealth management. In the second quarter of 2026, ING acquired the remaining 55% of Polish asset manager TFI and fully consolidated it from that quarter[15]; in July, ING announced a strategic investment in Spanish wealth manager Singular Bank, which is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027[16]. ING also holds a stake in Dutch firm Van Lanschot Kempen, which paid it a €26 million dividend in the second quarter[17].

Financial History and Current Position

In fiscal 2025, ING's income grew modestly, but net profit dipped as the liability margin fell back. The annual report shows total income rising from €22,575 million in 2023 and €22,615 million in 2024 to €23,035 million in 2025, while profit before tax was €10,492 million, €9,300 million and €9,148 million respectively, and 2025 loan loss provisions were €1,304 million[11]. Total net interest income fell 2.3% to €14,681 million in 2025, commercial net interest income was €15,316 million, and IFRS-EU net profit slipped from €6,392 million in 2024 to €6,327 million[18]. In the same year, net fee and commission income grew 15% to €4,602 million and operating expenses rose 3.8% to €12,583 million, including €866 million of regulatory costs and €297 million of incidental items[19].

In the first half of 2026, income and profit both accelerated. Total income for the half was €12,107 million, up 6.8%, total net interest income rose 14% to €8,181 million, and commercial net interest income rose 8.8% to €8,233 million[20]. Over the same period, net fee income rose 13% to €2,514 million, operating expenses rose only 1% to €6,305 million, loan loss provisions were €625 million (17 basis points), profit before tax rose 15% to €5,177 million and IFRS-EU net profit rose 12% to €3,503 million[21]. The second quarter alone saw total income rise 10.2% year on year and 7.9% sequentially[22], making it the faster-growing quarter of the half.

ING's operating cash flow does not measure earnings quality; capital and distributions better show what shareholders receive. Net cash flow from operating activities was minus €6,380 million in 2025 and minus €22,544 million in 2024, with the change driven mainly by trading assets and liabilities and interbank balances[23]. On capital, the CET1 ratio was 13.1% at the end of 2025 (13.6% at the end of 2024), and ING distributed an additional €3.6 billion during the year on top of its regular payout[24]; at the end of June the CET1 ratio was still 13.1%, with risk-weighted assets of €341.9 billion[25]. ING paid a final 2025 dividend of €0.736 per share in April 2026 and an interim dividend of €0.40 per share on August 10[26].

Operating Model

ING's income is driven mainly by customer balances multiplied by margins, with fees as the second engine. Total income equals net interest income plus net fees plus investment and other income; commercial net interest income combines the lending side (average customer loans times an average lending margin of 1.24% in the second quarter) and the liability side (average customer deposits times an average liability margin of 1.07%)[7], which together produced €4,174 million in the second quarter at a commercial net interest margin of 2.26%[17]. The remaining interest comes from Financial Markets and Treasury, where accounting asymmetry with other income means the two must be read together; investment and other income was €825 million in the second quarter and swings widely from quarter to quarter[3].

The profit model is income minus expenses and provisions, and both of those carry clear seasonal and one-off components. In the second quarter, operating expenses excluding regulatory costs and incidental items were €2,961 million, up 4.2% year on year; regulatory costs were €78 million, incidental items €46 million, and loan loss provisions €279 million, or 15 basis points[8]. Belgian annual regulatory charges are booked in full in the first quarter, while the Dutch bank tax is booked in the fourth quarter[27]. The second-quarter effective tax rate was 30.9%, reflecting a significantly higher Polish corporate income tax rate for banks from 2026, and net profit for the quarter was €1,947 million[9].

Capital generation and distribution form ING's real "cash" chain. ING first places all quarterly net profit into reserved profits not included in CET1 capital, a balance of €2,725 million at the end of June[25]; it then pays regular dividends at a 50% payout ratio and additional distributions from that reserve[26]. Loan growth raises risk-weighted assets, SRT securitisations and model updates release capital, and CET1 above roughly 13% is returned through buybacks[10]; funding relies mainly on customer deposits, which at €773.3 billion at the end of June were slightly above customer loans of €767.3 billion.

Industry and Competitive Position

ING's advantage among European retail banks lies in customer growth from mobile banking and in its scale as a major mortgage lender. In the first quarter of 2026, ING ranked first on net promoter score in 5 of its 9 retail markets and had more than 15.5 million mobile primary customers[28], adding another 377,000 in the second quarter[4]. In the Netherlands, ING shares the retail market with ABN AMRO and Rabobank; elsewhere it competes with local incumbents through a direct model, while Wholesale Banking serves large corporates with lending, payments and cash management and trade finance.

ING also faces structural competition from non-banks, and the available material does not support a quantitative comparison with peers. The annual report says digital innovation and AI-driven low-cost models are intensifying competition from fintechs, non-bank lenders and technology companies, that private lenders are taking a growing share of business lending, and that digital tokens and stablecoins are reshaping payment systems[1]. Because peer margins, cost-to-income ratios and capital data are not available here, ING's profitability gap with rivals such as ABN AMRO and Rabobank can only be judged qualitatively.

Core Debates

ING's deposit margin has just recovered to 1.07%. Can it keep net interest income growing in the third quarter as deposit campaigns get more expensive?

The deposit margin is the most direct variable in ING's third-quarter profit, because commercial net interest income made up about 68% of total income in the first half of 2026. In 2025, the liability margin fell from its peak, cutting full-year total net interest income by 2.3%[18], and Retail Belgium's net interest income fell 8.8%[29]. In 2026, the liability margin rose from 0.99% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 1.04% in the first quarter[30] and 1.07% in the second[7], lifting second-quarter commercial net interest income 11% year on year[17]; that improvement is also the main basis on which the company raised its full-year income outlook above €24.5 billion in July[5].

The case for a lasting margin rests on the hedge portfolio and pricing discipline, but deposit growth has also been bought with price. Liability net interest income rose €97 million sequentially in the second quarter, and the company attributed the margin gain to a hedging tailwind on replicated deposits[7] while maintaining disciplined pricing on the deposit back book[20]; the commercial net interest margin also rose to 2.26% from 2.23% a year earlier[17]. On the other hand, Germany and the Retail Other markets ran savings campaigns[15], Retail deposits grew €16.7 billion in the second quarter[4], time deposits rose from €98.6 billion to €127.4 billion in the first half, an increase of about 29%[14], and the company acknowledged that campaign costs were higher in the second quarter than in the first.

The financial transmission in this debate is short, so small changes in margin flow straight into income. Commercial net interest income was €4,174 million in the second quarter and €4,060 million in the first, €8,233 million for the half, against €7,566 million in the first half of 2025[3]; backing out from the 2025 full-year €15,316 million implies about €7,750 million for the second half of 2025, or roughly €3,875 million a quarter. Deposits are invested in multi-tenor interest-rate hedges through the replicating portfolio, so the liability margin equals hedge yield minus the rate paid to savers; on the lending side, dilution continued as the average lending margin fell 2 basis points to 1.24% in the second quarter because mortgages and lower-risk assets made up a larger share. The annual report notes that markets anticipate stable interest rates through 2026[31], so further margin gains depend more on the balance between reinvestment yields on maturing hedges and the cost of paying savers.

What remains unresolved is how much the hedging tailwind and the campaign costs each contribute, because the company does not disclose the size, duration or yield of the replicating portfolio. In the third-quarter results, investors should watch whether commercial net interest income stays at or above the second quarter's €4,174 million, whether the average liability margin holds at 1.07%, whether net core deposits still grow in a quarter without seasonal holiday-allowance inflows[22], and whether the average lending margin falls below 1.22%. If commercial net interest income drops below €4,060 million, or the liability margin falls below 1.04%, the view that the margin recovery can sustain income growth would weaken.

With loans growing at an annualised rate of about 8%, can ING keep risk costs within its 20-basis-point through-the-cycle average in the third quarter?

Loan growth is the other half of commercial net interest income, but every quarter's provisions come straight out of profit. ING's net core lending grew €30.2 billion in the first half of 2026, up from €22.2 billion a year earlier[21]; in 2025, net core lending growth was €56.9 billion, more than double the 2024 figure[18]. Loan loss provisions were €1,304 million in 2025, equal to about 14% of that year's €9,148 million profit before tax[11].

Risk costs remain below the through-the-cycle average, but one-off factors help keep them low. Group risk costs were 15 basis points, or €279 million, in the second quarter and 17 basis points for the first half, still below the through-the-cycle average of about 20 basis points[8]; retail lending growth was concentrated in lower-risk assets, mainly mortgages[7]. On the other hand, releases from a retail sale of non-performing loans, a partial release of the overlay on Dutch interest-only mortgages[9] and the first-quarter repayment of a large Stage 3 loan in Wholesale Banking[27] all pushed the figure down; net additions to Stage 3 provisions were €567 million in the first half, up from €436 million a year earlier[32]. Wholesale Banking rose to 27 basis points in the second quarter on a limited number of Stage 3 files and a weaker economic outlook, and the company also added a sector-based overlay for second-order effects of the war in the Middle East on vulnerable sectors, which shows management itself considers that risk not yet absorbed.

Risk costs multiplied by loan volume determine how much profit loan growth ultimately leaves behind. Net core lending grew €15.2 billion in the second quarter, an annualised 8.1%, including €12.1 billion in Retail (€7.1 billion of mortgages) and €3.0 billion in Wholesale Banking[22]; the first-quarter figure was €15.0 billion[33]. Net additions to Stage 3 provisions were €270 million in the second quarter[34] and €297 million in the first, when group risk costs were 19 basis points, or €346 million[27]. New lending raises average customer loans and lending net interest income, while macro-scenario updates and individual defaults reduce profit before tax through Stage 1, Stage 2 and Stage 3 provisions, and risk-weighted assets rise alongside loans.

What remains unresolved is whether 15 basis points can hold in a quarter without one-off releases, so a single quarter's figure should not be extrapolated. In the third-quarter results, investors should watch whether group risk costs exceed the roughly 20-basis-point through-the-cycle average, whether Wholesale Banking falls back from 27 basis points, whether Stage 3 additions stay above the first-half quarterly average of about €284 million, and whether net core lending keeps a quarterly pace of about €15 billion. Group risk costs above 20 basis points, or Wholesale Banking risk costs above 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters, would overturn the current view that credit costs are under control despite fast lending growth.

Fee income has grown at double-digit rates for several quarters. Can customer growth sustain it in the third quarter as trading activity cools?

Fees are ING's main route to reducing its dependence on interest rates, and management has just raised guidance for this line. Net fee income grew 15% to €4,602 million in 2025[19] and another 13% to €2,514 million in the first half of 2026[21]. In April, the company guided to 5-10% fee growth for 2026[35]; in July it changed that to about €5 billion and set a 2027 target of €5.3-5.5 billion[5]; given the first-half result, the full-year guidance only requires a roughly flat second half.

Customer growth has supported fees, but part of the growth came from trading activity and consolidation. Mobile primary customers grew by 377,000 in the second quarter[4], against 125,000 in the first[28]; active investment product customers grew by 110,000 in the second quarter, Retail fee income rose 16% year on year, and assets under management rose 27% to €322 billion[16]; Wholesale Banking fees rose 11.4% to €401 million[36]. On the other hand, German trading fees were inflated in the first quarter by market volatility after the Middle East war and fell back in the second[17]; the jump in assets under management partly reflects the consolidation of Poland's TFI and a structural reclassification from other income[15].

Fee transmission starts with customer numbers and reaches income through investment accounts and payment packages. Net fee income was €1,278 million in the second quarter, up 13.9% year on year and 3.4% sequentially, compared with €1,236 million in the first quarter and €2,216 million in the first half of 2025[3]; backing out from the 2025 full-year €4,602 million implies €2,386 million for the second half of 2025, or about €1,193 million a quarter[19]. Once mobile banking attracts primary-account customers, they open investment accounts, trade and subscribe to products, and use paid payment packages, generating investment product fees, daily banking fees and lending and insurance fees; Wholesale Banking syndication, capital markets issuance and payments and cash management contribute the rest. If markets weaken, trading fees fall first, while customer growth takes time to show up as management fees.

What remains unresolved is how fast organic growth is once trading swings and consolidation are stripped out. In the third-quarter results, investors should watch whether net fee income stays at or above €1,193 million and approaches €1,278 million, whether mobile primary customer additions stay above 250,000, whether active investment customer additions hold at about 100,000, and whether assets under management keep growing excluding TFI. Net fee income below €1,193 million, or a cut to full-year fee guidance, would weaken the view that customer growth alone can sustain fee income.

With its CET1 ratio sitting near 13%, will ING announce another round of extra distributions with its third-quarter results?

ING manages its CET1 ratio at about 13% and returns the excess to shareholders, so capital headroom directly determines additional distributions. In 2025, ING distributed an additional €3.6 billion on top of its regular 50% payout, and CET1 fell from 13.6% to 13.1%[24]; the additional distribution of up to €1.6 billion announced on October 30, 2025 was completed on April 27, 2026[26], and the €1.0 billion buyback launched on April 30 ends no later than October 26[10]. The 2026-10-29 results date falls just after this buyback ends.

The case for further distributions rests on a stable capital ratio and better earnings, but capital headroom is not generous. The CET1 ratio was 13.1% at the end of the second quarter[25], about 190 basis points above the 11.10% requirement including buffers; an SRT transaction in the second quarter released €1.0 billion of RWA[37], so RWA fell €2.4 billion even as lending grew; second-quarter ROTE was 17.0%, and the company raised full-year ROTE guidance to above 15%[5]. On the other hand, the new dividend reserving approach adopted in 2026 left CET1 about 23 basis points lower than under the old method[38]; the Singular Bank investment announced in July is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027[16], the Russia exit is expected to cost about 7 basis points[39], and ING will redeem USD 1.5 billion of AT1 securities on November 16[40].

The capital chain starts with quarterly profit and ends with buybacks and a falling share count. Reserved profits not included in CET1 capital were €2,725 million at the end of June, €3,681 million at the end of the first quarter and €2,125 million at the end of 2025[38]; RWA was €341.9 billion, comprising €284.2 billion of credit, €45.3 billion of operational and €12.4 billion of market RWA[37]. As of August 28, 2026, the current buyback had repurchased 23.57 million shares for about €650 million, roughly 64.98% complete[41]. Quarterly profit is fully reserved before regular dividends and additional distributions are paid, loan growth raises credit RWA, SRT and model updates release RWA, and the lower share count from buybacks lifted second-quarter net profit per share 21% year on year, faster than the 16% growth in net profit[9].

What remains unresolved is whether additional distributions can be sustained by organic profit accumulation, because CET1 already sits at target and further distributions depend more on capital optimisation such as SRT. In the third-quarter results, investors should watch whether quarter-end CET1 stays at or above 13.0%, whether a new additional distribution is announced and whether its size matches reserved profits, whether RWA stays stable as lending grows, and whether quarterly ROTE stays above 16%. CET1 below 12.8%, or no additional distribution in the third-quarter report, would weaken the view that the roughly 13% capital target can keep releasing shareholder returns.

Risks and Falsifiers

Cost overruns would erode the operating leverage from income growth. The 2026 operating expense guidance is €12.6-12.8 billion (excluding incidental items after the first quarter)[5]; first-half costs on that basis were €6,259 million, implying €6.34-6.54 billion for the second half, with the Dutch bank tax falling in the fourth quarter[21]. Second-quarter expenses excluding regulatory costs and incidental items rose 4.2% year on year, mainly from salary increases, marketing spending and the TFI consolidation[8]; if third-quarter growth on that basis is no more than 5% and the company reaffirms full-year cost guidance, the overrun concern would not hold.

Interest-rate moves can, through hedge accounting, push profit under the two accounting bases far apart and affect Treasury income. In 2025, IFRS-IASB net profit was €8,324 million, €1,996 million above the IFRS-EU figure of €6,327 million, because of fair value changes on asset-liability management derivatives[18]; in the first half of 2026 the gap reversed, with IFRS-IASB net profit of €3,184 million, €319 million below IFRS-EU[21]. First-quarter market volatility turned Treasury derivative revaluations and hedge ineffectiveness negative, and the second quarter only partly reversed this[20]; if Treasury and other income show no new hedge ineffectiveness losses in the third quarter and the gap between the two bases narrows, the risk would have limited effect on the quarter.

Rising campaign costs and a shift in the deposit mix toward time deposits could offset the hedging tailwind from the replicating portfolio. On €773.3 billion of customer deposits at the end of June, each 1-basis-point fall in the liability margin would cut annualised liability net interest income by roughly €77 million[14], and commercial net interest income made up about 68% of first-half total income. Only a third-quarter liability margin of at least 1.07%, positive net core deposits and commercial net interest income of at least €4,174 million would show that this risk has not materialised[7].

Second-order effects of the Middle East war could raise corporate defaults in vulnerable sectors and add Stage 3 files in Wholesale Banking. On €767.3 billion of customer loans at the end of June, each 5-basis-point rise in risk costs would add about €380 million of annualised provisions[13]; 2025 provisions of €1,304 million were about 14% of profit before tax[11]. In the second quarter, the company replaced its €94 million first-quarter management overlay with updated macroeconomic forecasts and a new sector-based overlay[8]; if third-quarter group risk costs are no higher than 17 basis points and Wholesale Banking falls back to 20 basis points or below, the current view would be supported.

Calmer markets or falling equity prices would reduce retail trading volumes and assets under management. Net fee income made up about 21% of first-half total income[21]; the roughly €5 billion full-year guidance implies about €2,486 million for the second half[5], and if third-quarter fees fell back to the second-half 2025 quarterly average of €1,193 million, the second-half shortfall would be about €100 million. If third-quarter net fee income is at least €1,278 million and quarter-end assets under management exceed €322 billion[16], this risk would not have shown up.

Higher RWA from loan growth, rising regulatory requirements or acquisitions could shrink or delay additional distributions. At the roughly 13% target, each €1 billion of additional RWA consumes about €130 million of CET1 capital[25]; the Russia exit is expected to cost about 7 basis points, or roughly €240 million[39]; and the CET1 requirement including buffers rose 4 basis points in the second quarter from the first[37]. A quarter-end CET1 ratio of at least 13.0% together with a new additional distribution would falsify this risk.

What to Watch Next

• Deposit margin and campaign costs: commercial net interest income was €4,174 million in the second quarter, with a 1.07% liability margin and €15.9 billion of net core deposit growth. A result at or above €4,174 million would confirm the current view; below €4,060 million, or a margin under 1.04%, would falsify it.
• Loan growth and risk costs: group risk costs were 15 basis points, Wholesale Banking 27 basis points and Stage 3 additions €270 million. Group risk costs at or below 17 basis points would confirm; above 20 basis points, or Wholesale Banking above 25 basis points for two straight quarters, would falsify.
• Customer growth and fees: net fees were €1,278 million, mobile primary customer additions 377,000 and assets under management €322 billion. Fees at or above €1,278 million would confirm; below €1,193 million, or a cut to full-year guidance, would falsify.
• Capital returns: CET1 was 13.1%, the buyback was about 64.98% complete and RWA was €341.9 billion. CET1 of at least 13.0% with a new distribution would confirm; CET1 below 12.8% or no new distribution would falsify.
• Costs across all debates: expenses excluding regulatory costs and incidental items grew 4.2% in the second quarter. Growth of no more than 5% with reaffirmed €12.6-12.8 billion guidance would confirm; growth clearly above 5% would falsify.

Conclusion

ING's profit rests on three parts: commercial net interest income earned by funding loans with deposits, fees driven by customer growth, and capital returned to shareholders against a CET1 target of about 13% after costs and provisions. Net profit for the first half of 2026 was €3,503 million, up 12%[21], and second-quarter ROTE reached 17.0%[4], but that improvement rests on a liability margin that has only just recovered to 1.07%[7] and risk costs of 15 basis points that sit below the through-the-cycle average[8]. The central unresolved relationship is whether the margin gain can persist as campaign costs rise and time deposits take a larger share, while fast lending neither lifts credit costs nor absorbs the capital needed for additional distributions.

Between the second-quarter release on 2026-07-30 and early October, Drillr's news search returned no independent commentary focused on ING's business, mostly surfacing results from other companies, so no outside interpretation is summarised here, and that gap should not be read as agreement among market participants. The only forward-looking reference points are the company's own guidance and revenue figures from a very small group of analysts: management raised full-year income guidance to above €24.5 billion[5], and the third-quarter average income estimate compiled by Drillr is 6.471 billion, from only 2 analysts[6]. Both are judgements by the company or third parties and cannot substitute for what the third-quarter report itself discloses.

If the third-quarter report shows commercial net interest income of at least €4,174 million with the liability margin holding at 1.07%, risk costs still below 20 basis points after one-off releases, net fees near €1,278 million, and CET1 of at least 13.0% alongside a new additional distribution, the current understanding that customer-driven interest and fee income are lifting returns would be materially strengthened. Conversely, if the margin falls below 1.04%, Wholesale Banking risk costs stay above 25 basis points, fees drop below €1,193 million, or no new distribution follows the end of the buyback, the strong second quarter would look more dependent on the hedging tailwind, one-off provision releases and capital optimisation, and that understanding would need to be revised down.

Sources

[1] ING 20-F filed 2026-02-26 · business overview and competition · 2026-02-26 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[2] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-02) · ING 2026-10-29 call · 2026-10-02 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 consolidated results table · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[4] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 press release headline · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[5] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2026 and 2027 outlook · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[6] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-02) · ING quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-02 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 lending and liability margins · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[8] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 operating expenses and risk costs · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[9] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 risk costs by business line and net result · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[10] ING 6-K filed 2026-04-30 · share buyback programme of up to €1.0 billion · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[11] ING 20-F filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 results by segment (Total operations table) · 2026-02-26 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[12] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 balance sheet and shareholders' equity · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[13] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · loans and advances to customers by type · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[14] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · customer deposits by type · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[15] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · Retail Germany and Retail Other 2Q2026 · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[16] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · CEO statement on Retail and Wholesale Banking · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[17] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 commercial NII year-on-year and fee income · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[18] ING 20-F filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 group results narrative · 2026-02-26 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[19] ING 20-F filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 fee income and operating expenses · 2026-02-26 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[20] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 1H2026 interim report on total income · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[21] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 1H2026 condensed consolidated results · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[22] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 total income and customer balances · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[23] ING 20-F filed 2026-02-26 · cash flow from operating activities 2025 · 2026-02-26 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[24] ING 20-F filed 2026-02-26 · capital developments 2025 · 2026-02-26 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[25] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 capital position and RWA · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[26] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · distribution policy · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[27] ING 6-K filed 2026-04-30 · 1Q2026 regulatory costs and risk costs · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[28] ING 6-K filed 2026-04-30 · 1Q2026 key figures · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[29] ING 20-F filed 2026-02-26 · Retail Belgium 2025 · 2026-02-26 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[30] ING 6-K filed 2026-04-30 · 1Q2026 commercial NII and margins · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[31] ING 20-F filed 2026-02-26 · interest rate risk factor · 2026-02-26 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=20-F&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[32] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 1H2026 risk costs · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[33] ING 6-K filed 2026-04-30 · 1Q2026 total income and volumes · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[34] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 Stage 3 provisions · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[35] ING 6-K filed 2026-04-30 · 2026 and 2027 outlook as of 1Q2026 · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[36] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · Wholesale Banking profit or loss table · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[37] ING 6-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q2026 RWA composition and distribution · 2026-07-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[38] ING 6-K filed 2026-04-30 · 1Q2026 capital and dividend reserving · 2026-04-30 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[39] ING 6-K filed 2026-04-07 · termination of Russia sale · 2026-04-07 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[40] ING 6-K filed 2026-09-17 · redemption of USD 1.5 billion AT1 securities · 2026-09-17 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[41] ING 6-K filed 2026-09-01 · share buyback progress · 2026-09-01 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40