Alfen (ALFNF), Mercury NZ (MGHTF): Labor Caps Grid Buildout

Contact Energy (COENF), Mercury NZ (MGHTF) and Alfen (ALFNF) each held earnings calls between August 9 and August 19, 2026, and each pointed to the same limit on power delivery: their own build and installation capacity rather than demand or permitting.

---

Permits are loosening in Europe, and installers are the next constraint

Data centers and electrified factories need generation first, and then substations — the equipment that steps high-voltage power down and distributes it to a customer's site. In Europe, projects have long queued for grid connection approval, and that gate is opening: the EU published an Electrification Action Plan in July that names grid capacity as a key constraint and urges member states to speed up permitting, and the Netherlands starts a fast-track regime in October that shortens appeal procedures for these projects [1]. Once the permit clears, the next constraint appears immediately — how many trained installers grid operators and equipment makers have, and how many sites they can run at once. Alfen describes this as a property of the industry rather than of any one company [1]. New Zealand shows the other end of the same problem, where generators are not short of buyers but short of build rate: Mercury says the two or three data center campuses already announced would roughly consume its ability to build power stations over the next five to ten years [2]. The constraint spreads to comparable companies because AI-related load is large, already contracted and impatient, so the scarce good becomes the delivery date rather than the electricity.

---

Deliveries are rising while the supplier denies an order boom

Alfen delivered 1,716 substations in the first half of 2026, 1,199 in the Netherlands and 517 in Finland [1]. On the same call, the company said the EU and Dutch regulatory changes will not affect volumes this year and will not produce a double-digit order boom once resolved, because installers need training [1]. Mercury is paying for schedule instead. It bought 12.7% of Datagrid Holding Group NZ for US$30 million so the 360 MW Southland campus could get its early horizontal works underway, because the customers want pace [2][3]. Contact Energy announced on August 9 that it is working with CDC to explore a data center on the site of its decommissioned Stratford gas plant, and it holds more than 11 TWh of uncommitted renewable development pipeline against roughly 3 TWh of new demand that is known and committed [4]. Taken together, the demand side is queued and the delivery side is still shipping at the construction and installation capacity that exists today.

---

Backlog conversion becomes the main variable for equipment makers and contractors

Once the control point moves from the permit desk to crews and production lines, revenue at equipment makers and contractors reads more like a throughput number — how much actually got installed in the period. Backlog then stops translating directly into next year's revenue, with a conversion rate set by available labor in between. Getting a site energized a few quarters earlier becomes something a company can charge for, and Mercury's move from a power purchase agreement to owning equity in the load is how it monetizes that scarcity [2][3]. Two things are worth tracking: the gap between the substations Alfen reports delivering each period and its order intake, and Mercury's final investment decision and build progress on the Datagrid project [1][2]. Mercury's own management is not underwriting high demand — its mid case has electricity demand growing about 10% by 2030, and management says it does not need high demand for value-accretive growth [2]. The sequence of permits first and construction second also holds in Europe and New Zealand rather than everywhere: the United States is moving the other way, with more than 500 local data center bans in place by early August 2026 and a one-year moratorium in New York [5].

---

Companies exposed to this change

• Everus Construction Group (ECG): the gap between second-quarter electrical and mechanical revenue of $1.01 billion and a $4.55 billion backlog is exactly the question of what can be installed, and it agreed after the quarter to acquire off-site modular provider Epsilon Industries [6].
• Centuri Holdings (CTRI): it added about 1,700 employees organically in the first half and paid $62 million in cash for J.J. White and its roughly 1,000 electrical and mechanical workers, putting capacity in ahead of revenue [7].
• MYR Group (MYRG): its customers name labor availability as their top concern for project delivery, and it closed the Valley Electric acquisition on July 1 to add prefabrication and lift conversion of a $3.16 billion backlog [8].

---

Sources

[1] Drillr · Alfen (ALFNF) · 2026-08-19 · earnings call

After that has been solved, immediately comes the question, do we have enough structural, as an industry, not specifically Alphen, but also the grid company, do we have enough structural capacity for executing on that growth? Because installers need training. So we expect a steady, predictable growth there, but not a big boom to come very quickly.

[2] Drillr · Mercury NZ (MGHTF) · 2026-08-17 · earnings call

[3] interest.co.nz · Mercury NZ · 2026-07-23 · news report · https://www.interest.co.nz/business/139502/mercury-nz-secures-127-stake-worth-53-million-datagrid-nz%E2%80%99s-35-billion-southland-ai

[4] Drillr · Contact Energy (COENF) · 2026-08-09 · earnings call

[5] Livemint · roundup of authorities restricting data centers · 2026-08-19 · news report · https://www.livemint.com/technology/factboxauthorities-restricting-data-centres-amid-ai-boom-11787088961119.html

[6] Drillr · Everus Construction Group (ECG) · 2026-08-05 · earnings call

[7] Drillr · Centuri Holdings (CTRI) · 2026-08-04 · earnings call

[8] Drillr · MYR Group (MYRG) · 2026-07-30 · earnings call

This is only meant to surface industry changes and companies you may have missed - it is not a stock recommendation.