[NU] Nu Holdings: Q3 2026 Earnings Preview on Credit Margins and Deposit Float

Nu Holdings, the parent of Nubank, is a digital bank centered on Brazil that also operates in Mexico and Colombia, serving 139 million customers with credit cards, personal loans, deposit accounts and payments[1]. Ahead of its Q3 2026 earnings, the company has scheduled its earnings call for 2026-11-12 to report 2026年7-9月(2026年第三季度), the July–September 2026 quarter[2]. In the latest disclosed quarter, April–June 2026, managerial total revenue was $5.8757 billion, up 39% year over year on an FX-neutral basis; gross profit was $2.4411 billion, up 43%; and net income was $1.0611 billion, the first quarter above $1 billion, with ROE of 33%. Risk-adjusted net interest margin rose from 9.5% in the first quarter to 12.4%, and the efficiency ratio was 19.5%[1]. Management does not give quarterly revenue or profit guidance, but on the second-quarter call it said the full-year efficiency ratio should average about 20% and that risk-adjusted NIM should stay around the current 12.4% level for the foreseeable future, adding that this level is not a floor[3]. Analyst estimates compiled by Drillr show a consensus of $5.962 billion for third-quarter total revenue from 5 analysts (range $5.920 billion to $6.015 billion), $1.116 billion for net income, and $0.227 for EPS from 8 analysts[4].

Three things matter most in this report. First, whether risk-adjusted NIM stays above 12%: part of the second-quarter rebound came from the seasonal decline in early delinquencies and from Desenrola, a government debt-renegotiation program, while the company is deliberately expanding into higher-risk, higher-return borrowers, so the third quarter is the first test of whether 12.4% is normal or a peak[1][3]. Second, whether deposits and float income keep growing: second-quarter float income was $1.4544 billion, about one-third of gross profit, June deposits were $45.3 billion and cost of deposits was 88% of the interbank rate, and this profit stream is the first to be squeezed once Brazil's policy rate enters a cutting cycle[1]. Third, whether expansion costs stay inside the roughly 20% efficiency-ratio guidance: the Mexican subsidiary began operating as a bank on August 6 and the US business launched on September 10, making the third quarter the first in which both expansions sit in the expense line, while second-quarter operating expenses were already almost half again as large as a year earlier[5][6][1].

Company Background and Business Structure

Nu Holdings is a digital financial services platform incorporated in the Cayman Islands with its business in Latin America; it reports under IFRS and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker NU[7][6]. The company started in Brazil in 2013 with a core credit card that charges no annual fee, then expanded into digital accounts, personal loans, payments and the distribution of investments and insurance; at the end of 2025 it had 131 million customers, including 113 million in Brazil, 14 million in Mexico and more than 4 million in Colombia[7]. By the end of June 2026, customers had grown to 139 million, with almost 118 million in Brazil, 15.8 million in Mexico and more than 5 million in Colombia, and the monthly activity rate was 83.5%[1]. Founder David Vélez is chairman and chief executive; chief technology officer Eric Young has announced his resignation and will stay until November 12, 2026, with Vélez directly overseeing Global Platforms on an interim basis[8].

The company reports a single segment, but its revenue splits by product into three lines: credit, float and fees[5][1]. Credit covers credit cards ($26 billion at the end of June), unsecured personal loans ($10.3 billion) and secured loans led by payroll lending ($3.1 billion); second-quarter credit income was $3.6048 billion, about 60% of managerial total revenue[1]. Float is the return on the part of customer deposits that is not lent out and is invested mainly in liquid government bonds; second-quarter float income was $1.4544 billion. Fees come from merchant-paid card interchange, loyalty subscriptions, late fees and commissions for distributing investments, insurance and international remittances, and totaled $816.4 million in the second quarter[1][7]. On an accounting basis, interest income and gains net of losses on financial instruments made up 85.2% of 2025 total revenue, and fee and commission income made up 14.8%[7].

Revenue is heavily concentrated in Brazil, and that concentration frames both the profit and the risk. Among revenues disclosed by geography for 2025, Brazil contributed $11.0383 billion, Mexico $808.1 million and other countries $237.3 million[7]; for April–June 2026, on the interim statements' geographic basis, Brazil contributed $3.9903 billion, about 91% of the $4.3809 billion total[5]. The company has no physical branches, and its annual report says a significant part of its customers came organically through word-of-mouth or direct referrals; at the end of 2025 each employee served about 14,314 customers, against an average of about 1,234 at Brazil's incumbent banks[7]. On shareholder returns, the board approved a 12-month repurchase program of up to $1 billion on June 4, 2026, and by the end of June the company had bought back 40.6596 million shares for about $500.4 million[9][5].

Financial History and Current Position

Nu's annual growth remains fast, and profit is growing faster than revenue. Under IFRS, 2025 total revenue was $15.7747 billion, up 37% from $11.5171 billion in 2024; net income was $2.8717 billion, up 45.6% from $1.9721 billion[7]. At the end of 2025, the credit card and personal loan portfolio was $32.7 billion and deposits were $41.9 billion, up 40% and 29% on an FX-neutral basis; monthly ARPAC (average revenue per active customer) was $13.3 for the year, compared with $11.3 in 2024[7]. Full-time employees reached 10,027 at year-end, up 15%, a slower increase than revenue[7].

The second quarter of 2026 was the most profitable in the company's history, but expenses and late delinquencies also moved up in the same quarter. Managerial total revenue was $5.8757 billion, against $3.7723 billion a year earlier; gross profit was $2.4411 billion, up 25% sequentially; operating expenses were $806.2 million, against $548.1 million a year earlier; pre-tax income was $1.6303 billion, income taxes were $569.2 million and net income was $1.0611 billion, up 49% year over year[1]. On an accounting basis, total revenue for the quarter was $5.5132 billion, and net income matched the managerial figure[1]. The credit portfolio reached $39.4 billion at the end of June, up 37% year over year and 5% sequentially; deposits were $45.3 billion, up 18% year over year and 6% sequentially, recovering the first quarter's seasonal outflows[1].

Comparing the first and second quarters shows how seasonal the company's profit is. In the first quarter of 2026, net income was $871.4 million, risk-adjusted NIM was 9.5% and the efficiency ratio fell to a record 17.6%[10][11]; in the second quarter, cost of credit fell 9% sequentially to $1.6908 billion, risk-adjusted NIM returned to 12.4%, and the efficiency ratio rose to 19.5% as real estate and marketing expenses shifted from the first quarter[1]. On capital and liquidity, regulated entities held $1.8 billion of excess capital at the end of March 2026 and the holding company held $3.7 billion of cash and equivalents[10]; the Brazilian regulated conglomerate had a capital adequacy ratio of 16.6% at the end of 2025, against a 10.5% requirement[7].

Operating Model

Nu's revenue can be broken down as customers × activity rate × ARPAC, which then lands in the credit, float and fee lines. Managerial total revenue equals credit income plus float income plus fee income, which in the second quarter of 2026 were $3.6048 billion, $1.4544 billion and $816.4 million[1]. Customer growth sets the scale and ARPAC sets how deeply each customer is monetized: monthly ARPAC rose from $12.5 in the second quarter of 2025 to $15.9 in the first quarter of 2026 and reached about $17 in the second quarter[10][1]. Management noted on the call that Brazil's incumbent banks average $40 to $45 of ARPAC and that long-tenured Nu customers are already in the mid-$20s; that gap is the room for higher credit limits, deeper unsecured lending and the new Croma membership tier, but closing it will take several quarters[3].

On the profit side, direct costs matter most, especially cost of credit. Gross profit equals total revenue minus funding cost, cost of credit, transaction cost and revenue-based taxes; in the second quarter those four items were $1.3721 billion, $1.6908 billion, $130.8 million and $240.9 million, and of the $2.4411 billion of gross profit, credit contributed 41%, fees 25% and float 34%[1]. Cost of credit reflects expected credit loss provisions: the more new lending and the higher early delinquencies, the larger the up-front provisions, so portfolio growth first depresses current-quarter profit and then contributes interest income in later quarters[11][3]. Operating expenses were only $806.2 million, including $463.6 million of general and administrative expenses, $226.2 million of customer support and operations and $103.6 million of marketing, which lifted pre-tax income to $1.6303 billion[1].

As a bank, Nu's cash flow is driven mainly by deposit gathering and loan origination, so operating cash flow is not a useful measure. The $45.3 billion of deposits at the end of June is the main funding source and supports the $39.4 billion credit portfolio[1]; Mexico's loan-to-deposit ratio is just 35%, and the company is deliberately reducing higher-cost deposits there[1]. Management believes margins and ROE can still improve as higher-yielding loans grow and replace low-yielding excess deposits; that mechanism requires loans to keep growing faster than deposits, and it shows up with a lag in net interest income over the following quarters[3]. Retained profit funds portfolio growth, the Mexican and US expansions and buybacks; quarterly disclosures do not break out profit by country, so the cost of the Mexican and US expansions can only be inferred from the consolidated efficiency ratio and company statements[5].

Industry and Competitive Position

In Brazil, Nu is already the largest private financial institution by customers, but its share of industry profit is still small. Citing central bank data, the annual report says Nu serves 62% of Brazil's population with an activity rate of 86%[7]; the company estimates the 2025 Brazilian consumer and SME gross profit pool at about $100 billion, of which Nu holds about 7%, including roughly 18% in cards, 8% in unsecured loans and 4% in deposit spread[10]. That means Nu's growth room lies mainly in winning more wallet share from existing customers rather than in reaching more customers[3].

Nu competes in Brazil with two groups: large incumbent banks and digital rivals. The annual report names Itaú Unibanco, Bradesco, Santander Brasil, Caixa and Banco do Brasil as its main consumer-credit competitors, BTG Pactual, Banco Inter, C6 and XP in investments, and MercadoPago, PicPay, PagSeguro and StoneCo in payments[7]. Its advantages are a low-cost platform and underwriting models driven by large-scale transaction data: customers who use Nu as their primary bank show roughly half the portfolio's average delinquency, and NuFormer, the company's own foundation model for financial behavior, is in production for credit cards in Brazil and Mexico and for unsecured lending in Brazil[3][1]. The disadvantage is just as clear: about 90% of revenue comes from Brazil, so changes in Brazilian interest rates, the currency and credit regulation flow straight into the consolidated results[5].

Mexico and the United States are Nu's two bets beyond Brazil, but they are at very different stages. The Mexican subsidiary received its operating authorization from Mexico's National Banking and Securities Commission in July 2026 and began operating as a bank on August 6; the company says it is now Mexico's largest digital bank, reaching 16.5% of adults, while its share of the profit pool is still below 1%[12][5][1][11]. The US business launched on September 10 through a partnership with FDIC-insured Lead Bank, offering a deposit account yielding 3.50% APY and a no-annual-fee credit card with 1.5% cashback; the company received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to form a national bank on January 29 and is using the partner-bank model until the full charter is in place[6][5]. The disclosures cited here do not give competitors' margins or delinquencies for the same period, so Nu's credit edge over peers can only be judged from the company's own statements[1].

Core Debates

After deliberately expanding into riskier borrowers, can Nu hold its risk-adjusted margin near 12.4% in the third quarter?

This question decides whether Nu's profit growth over the next few quarters comes through from portfolio expansion or is offset by credit losses. Credit income is about 60% of managerial total revenue, the credit business contributed 41% of second-quarter gross profit, and cost of credit is the main source of profit volatility[1]. Seasonal provisions pushed risk-adjusted NIM down to 9.5% in the first quarter of 2026, and it recovered to 12.4% in the second quarter, when net income topped $1 billion for the first time[10][1]. Management treats 12.4% as a sustainable baseline range and stresses that it is not a floor[3].

The current evidence supports the second-quarter improvement, but it also shows the company actively taking on more risk. NIM rose to 22.9% in the second quarter, and cost of credit fell 9% sequentially to $1.6908 billion, against $1.0511 billion a year earlier; the 15-90 day delinquency ratio improved 16 basis points to 4.8%, while the 90+ day ratio rose 35 basis points to 6.9%[1]. The company attributed the margin expansion to portfolio growth, the mix shift toward unsecured lending and the intentional risk expansion announced the previous quarter; on the call, management said Desenrola accounted for only a minority of the 115 basis-point sequential improvement in cost of credit, that the program affected second-quarter cost of credit by about 5%, and that a small effect would remain in the third quarter[1][3]. On provisioning, allowances cover 244% of 90+ day NPLs and equal 113% of new 15+ day delinquency formation[3].

What remains unresolved is how much of the 12.4% is seasonal or one-off. The alternative reading is that the second quarter is naturally the season when early delinquencies fall, and with help from Desenrola, 12.4% may be above the normal level; if the newly targeted borrowers enter their loss period in the second half, risk-adjusted NIM could return to the 10% to 11% range of the second half of 2025, when the third quarter printed 10.8%[10]. The transmission runs like this: expanding into higher-risk, higher-return borrowers and raising the unsecured share first lifts loan yields and net interest income, then brings early delinquencies and up-front provisions on new loans, and finally shows up in cost of credit, risk-adjusted NIM, and credit gross profit and net income[1]. History shows the 90+ day ratio has been 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points higher in the third quarter than in the second in each of the past three years (5.8% to 5.9% in 2023, 6.8% to 7.0% in 2024 and 6.5% to 6.7% in 2025), so starting from 6.9%, seasonality alone could carry it to around 7.0%[10].

Three numbers matter most in the third quarter. The first is whether July–September risk-adjusted NIM stays above 12%; the second is whether the 15-90 day ratio falls in the third quarter as it did in each of the past three years, when it was 4.4%, 4.5% and 4.3% in the third quarters of 2023 to 2025, with 4.6% or lower as the line to watch this time; the third is whether the 90+ day ratio stays within 7.0% and cost of credit grows no faster than the portfolio[10]. If early delinquencies rise rather than fall in the third quarter, or risk-adjusted NIM drops back to second-half 2025 levels, that would show losses on the deliberately targeted borrowers running above pricing assumptions, and the current reading would need revision[10][3].

With Brazil’s Selic rate now falling, can Nu’s deposit base keep its float income from shrinking?

Float is Nu's second-largest revenue source and the profit cushion when the credit business swings with the seasons. Second-quarter float income was $1.4544 billion, about a quarter of managerial total revenue and 34% of gross profit[1]; when credit provisions rose seasonally in the first quarter, float's share of gross profit reached about 40%[11]. When the annual report was published, Brazil's Selic policy rate was 15.00%, a level it had held since June 2025[7]; once rates enter a cutting cycle, the investment return on idle deposits falls directly, and whether deposit growth and loan absorption can offset that decides whether Nu's profit leans more heavily on credit during an easing cycle.

Deposit data remain solid for now. Deposits were $45.3 billion at the end of June, up 18% year over year, including $36.4 billion in Brazil, $5.7 billion in Mexico and $3.3 billion in Colombia, having recovered the first quarter's seasonal outflows; deposits were $38.8 billion at the end of September 2025[1][10]. Cost of deposits was 88% of the interbank rate, 3 percentage points below the 91% of a year earlier, and 89% in the third quarter of 2025[1][10]. Float income was $990.9 million a year earlier, while funding cost rose from $1.0073 billion a year earlier to $1.3721 billion[1].

The net effect of rate cuts on float is uncertain because yields and costs fall together. The transmission runs like this: as the Selic falls, the return on undeployed deposits invested in government bonds declines, while the cost of deposits paid at a percentage of the interbank rate also falls; float income comes under pressure and funding cost decreases, deposit growth and a rising loan-to-deposit ratio partly offset the squeeze, and the result shows up in the float portion of managerial total revenue and gross profit[7][1]. Management's view is that growth in higher-yielding loans will gradually replace low-yielding excess deposits and support margins and ROE[3]. The alternative reading is that if Brazilian customers move money to higher-yielding competitors, or the company raises its payout ratio to keep deposits, float income will fall faster than funding cost.

Three numbers can test this in the third quarter. The first is whether July–September float income is no lower than the second quarter's $1.4544 billion; the second is whether September deposits exceed $45.3 billion and Brazilian deposits keep growing; the third is whether cost of deposits holds around 88% of the interbank rate[1]. If rates fall faster than deposits grow and float income drops more than 5% sequentially, or deposit competition pushes the payout ratio above 90%, that would show this profit cushion is more fragile than it looks today.

With its Mexican bank now operating and its US launch under way, can Nu keep its efficiency ratio within its roughly 20% guidance?

A low-cost platform is the core of what separates Nu from incumbent banks, and the efficiency ratio is the direct test of that edge. Each Nu employee serves about 11 times as many customers as at Brazil's incumbent banks[7]. In 2026 the company is pushing its Mexican banking conversion, its US launch and its AI investment at the same time; in the first quarter, management said the full-year efficiency ratio would be about 20%, and that this guidance already includes all planned investment in return to office, US expansion and AI infrastructure[11]. The third quarter is the first in which both expansions are live, making the pace of expenses the first window to test that commitment[5][6].

The first-half efficiency ratio ran below guidance, but it already rose clearly in the second quarter. Second-quarter operating expenses were $806.2 million against about $648 million in the first quarter, lifting the efficiency ratio from 17.6% to 19.5%, which the company explained by real estate and marketing expenses shifting from the first quarter plus international expansion; marketing expenses rose from $52.3 million a year earlier to $103.6 million[10][1]. On the first-quarter call, management said about one-third of the quarter's outperformance against plan came from durable AI-driven efficiency gains and about two-thirds from expense timing that would normalize during the year[11]. Over the same period, ARPAC rose from $15.9 in the first quarter to about $17, partly offsetting expense growth[10][1].

What remains unresolved is how much expense will be released in the second half and whether revenue keeps pace. Working from the first- and second-quarter expenses and efficiency ratios, the first-half efficiency ratio was about 18.6%, so full-year guidance of about 20% leaves room for a higher ratio in the second half[10][1][11]. The transmission runs like this: the Mexican banking license, the US partner-bank launch and spending on AI and return to office raise marketing, personnel and systems costs, which flow into operating expenses and the efficiency ratio, while ARPAC and customer growth raise net revenue and offset expense growth[1]. The company has committed that the US investment will add no more than 100 basis points to the efficiency ratio in each of 2026 and 2027[10][3]. The alternative reading is that if marketing spending in the US or Mexico steps up while ARPAC growth slows, the efficiency ratio could exceed guidance.

Three signals matter in the third quarter. The first is whether the July–September efficiency ratio is no higher than 21%, compared with 20.3% in the third quarter of 2025[10]; the second is whether ARPAC keeps rising sequentially; the third is whether the company discloses that US investment is still within 100 basis points, along with customer and deposit changes in Mexico after the banking conversion[3]. If the efficiency ratio exceeds 22%, or the company raises its full-year efficiency guidance or loosens the US spending cap, that would show expansion costs running ahead of the pace implied by guidance.

Risks and Falsifiers

Brazilian political and currency shocks are the most immediate external risk after the third quarter. Zacks reported that after Brazil's election the Bovespa index fell 13.9% on October 26, the real slid more than 10% against the dollar intraday, and Nu shares fell 20.5% from October 23 to October 29[13]. The shock came after the third quarter ended and does not affect July–September operating data, but Brazil accounts for about 90% of geographic revenue, so a 10% depreciation of the real would cut dollar-reported Brazilian revenue and profit by roughly the same proportion and could push up long-term rates and funding costs[5]. If the company says in its third-quarter materials that FX-neutral growth was unaffected, and Brazilian 15-90 day delinquencies do not rise in later quarters, the operating impact of this risk is limited.

Interest-rate and credit regulation can directly change the pricing room for credit products. Since January 2024, Brazil's National Monetary Council has capped accumulated revolving credit card interest at 100% of the customer's outstanding revolving principal[7]; on the first-quarter call, management mentioned possible price caps on private payroll loans, and the government's Desenrola debt renegotiation also changes repayment patterns[11]. Credit income is about 60% of total revenue, so new caps that lower card or unsecured loan pricing would directly reduce credit income and the risk-adjusted margin[1]. If the third-quarter materials show no new rate caps or regulatory penalties and card yields hold steady, this risk has not materialized.

Brazilian household debt and high interest rates are the macro source of credit risk. Management acknowledged that Brazil's household debt-service ratio is a top investor concern, but pointed to strong employment and to the new income tax exemption for earnings up to BRL 5,000 a month, which raises disposable income for its core customers[11]; at the same time the company is deliberately expanding into higher-risk borrowers, so if jobs or incomes weaken, losses on new loans would exceed pricing assumptions[1]. Cost of credit runs about $1.7 billion a quarter; a level 10% above the second quarter would add about $170 million, roughly one-tenth of second-quarter managerial pre-tax income of $1.6303 billion[1]. If the July–September 15-90 day ratio is no higher than 4.6% and risk-adjusted NIM is no lower than 12.4%, this risk has not shown up in the third quarter.

Rate cuts and deposit competition act on float income and funding cost at the same time. A falling Selic depresses float income, while digital banks and brokers compete for deposits with high-yield products, which could force Nu to raise its payout ratio[7]. As a rough calculation on $45.3 billion of June deposits and the 15% Selic at the time of the annual report, each 1 percentage-point increase in cost of deposits as a share of the interbank rate adds about $68 million of annualized interest expense, and the sensitivity shrinks as the policy rate falls[1][7]. If July–September cost of deposits is no higher than 88% of the interbank rate and float income is no lower than $1.4544 billion, this risk has not materialized.

Expansion execution risk is concentrated in three places: the United States, Mexico and the technology leadership handover. Management acknowledged that the US market has strong, competent incumbents and that product-market fit is not guaranteed, and said US credit models need 12 to 30 months to reach the confidence it has in its core Latin American markets[11][3]; Mexico's banking conversion also requires new systems and compliance spending; and after the chief technology officer leaves on November 12, the chief executive will oversee the technology platform on an interim basis[8]. Operating expenses run about $800 million a quarter, and on second-quarter net revenue of about $4.1 billion, each 1 percentage point of efficiency ratio equals about $41 million of expense[1]. If the July–September efficiency ratio is no higher than 21% and the company reaffirms its full-year guidance of about 20%, this risk remains under control.

What to Watch Next

• Risk-adjusted margin: risk-adjusted NIM was 12.4% in the second quarter of 2026 (9.5% in the first quarter, 10.8% in the third quarter of 2025)[1][10]. Watch whether July–September stays above 12%; a drop back to second-half 2025 levels would falsify the current reading.
• Early delinquency: the 15-90 day ratio was 4.8% (4.3% in the third quarter of 2025)[1][10]. A seasonal decline to 4.6% or lower would confirm; a rise would falsify.
• Late delinquency: the 90+ day ratio was 6.9% (7.0% in the third quarter of 2024)[1][10]. Watch whether it stays within 7.0%; cost of credit growing faster than the portfolio would be a warning.
• Float income: $1.4544 billion in the second quarter ($990.9 million a year earlier)[1]. A sequential decline of more than 5% would falsify.
• Deposits and cost of deposits: $45.3 billion at 88% of the interbank rate[1]. Watch whether September deposits exceed $45.3 billion and the payout ratio holds; a payout ratio above 90% would falsify.
• Efficiency ratio: 19.5% (20.3% in the third quarter of 2025)[1][10]. Watch whether July–September is no higher than 21%; above 22%, or a raised full-year guide, would falsify.
• ARPAC and US spending: about $17, with a US drag capped at 100 basis points[1][3]. Watch for sequential ARPAC growth and US spending inside the cap; loosening the cap would falsify.

Conclusion

Nu's business turns a vast, mostly Brazilian customer base into three revenue lines, credit, float and fees, at very low operating cost, and the main swing factor in profit is cost of credit. In the second quarter of 2026, managerial total revenue was $5.8757 billion and net income $1.0611 billion, risk-adjusted NIM was 12.4% and the efficiency ratio 19.5%, with $45.3 billion of deposits and a $39.4 billion credit portfolio at the end of June[1]. The central unresolved relationship is whether the returns from deliberately expanding into higher-risk borrowers can keep exceeding the losses that come with them, whether float income can hold up through a rate-cutting cycle, and whether expansion costs can stay inside the roughly 20% efficiency guidance[3][11].

Only one independent assessment published after the second-quarter results is used here. In an October 30 analysis, Zacks argued that the post-election drop in Nu shares mainly reflects investors reassessing Brazilian market risk, in contrast with the company's 39% FX-neutral revenue growth in the second quarter; it also warned that the 90+ day delinquency ratio had risen to 6.9% and that "Prolonged elevated interest rates could increase repayment difficulties, pushing credit losses higher and squeezing lending profitability," naming third-quarter loan growth, financing costs, credit provisions and currency movements as the indicators to check[13]. That view overlaps heavily with the first debate and touches funding cost in the second, but it says nothing about the efficiency ratio or expansion costs; other public commentary consisted mostly of brokers adjusting their stock views and is not used here. It is an outside interpretation, not a fact, and it does not represent a broad market view.

Over the next few quarters, one combination of observations would materially strengthen the current reading: risk-adjusted NIM holding above 12%, the 15-90 day ratio declining seasonally, float income no lower than $1.4544 billion with deposits still growing and the payout ratio steady near 88%, and an efficiency ratio no higher than 21% with the company reaffirming full-year guidance of about 20%. Conversely, if early delinquencies rise instead of falling, risk-adjusted NIM returns to the roughly 10% to 11% of the second half of 2025, and float income falls more than 5% sequentially or the efficiency ratio exceeds 22%, at least one of the cost of risk expansion, the impact of rate cuts or the cost of expansion has been underestimated[10].

Sources

[1] NU Q2 2026 earnings release 6-K filed 2026-08-13 · 2026-08-13 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691493/000129281426004222/nupr2q26_6k.htm

[2] Drillr earnings call calendar NU retrieved 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-05 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] NU Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-13 · 2026-08-13 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[4] Drillr analyst estimates NU quarter ending 2026-09-30 retrieved 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-05 · Drillr analyst estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[5] NU Q2 2026 interim financial statements 6-K filed 2026-08-13 · 2026-08-13 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691493/000129281426004225/nufs2q26_6k.htm

[6] NU US launch 6-K filed 2026-09-10 · 2026-09-10 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691493/000129281426004518/nu20260909_6k.htm

[7] NU 20-F filed 2026-04-08 · 2026-04-08 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691493/000129281426002166/nuform20f_2025.htm

[8] NU CTO transition 6-K filed 2026-10-23 · 2026-10-23 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691493/000129281426005000/nu20261023_6k.htm

[9] NU share repurchase program 6-K filed 2026-06-04 · 2026-06-04 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691493/000129281426003326/nu20260604_6k.htm

[10] NU Q1 2026 earnings presentation 6-K filed 2026-05-14 · 2026-05-14 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691493/000129281426003055/nu20260514_6k.htm

[11] NU Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-14 · 2026-05-14 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[12] NU Mexico bank operations authorization 6-K filed 2026-07-10 · 2026-07-10 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691493/000129281426003723/nu20260710_6k.htm

[13] Zacks on Nu Holdings after Brazil election 2026-10-30 · 2026-10-30 · Zacks Investment Research · https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3019917/nu-holdings-slides-after-brazil-s-election-is-the-sell-off-overdone