[TJX] TJX: Can Marmaxx comparable sales recover in Q3 fiscal 2027?

TJX is the largest off-price apparel and home fashions retailer in the United States and worldwide, operating banners such as TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Winners in Canada and TK Maxx in Europe, with 5,285 stores as of August 1, 2026[1]. The company is scheduled to report results for the third quarter of Fiscal 2027, the thirteen weeks ending October 31, 2026, on 2026-11-18[2]. In the latest disclosed period, the second quarter of fiscal 2027 ended August 1, 2026, net sales were $15.18 billion, up 5%, consolidated comparable sales rose 4%, GAAP pretax margin was 13.3%, adjusted pretax margin excluding the net tariff-refund benefit was 11.9%, up 0.5 points, and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.22[3][4]. Company guidance for the third quarter calls for consolidated comparable sales up 2% to 3%, net sales of $15.6 billion to $15.8 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.30 to $1.32, or $1.36 to $1.38 on a GAAP basis[5][6]. Drillr's compilation of 12 analysts puts mean EPS at $1.34 and the 11-analyst mean revenue forecast at $15.845 billion; the compilation does not state whether it uses GAAP or adjusted figures, and $1.34 sits exactly between the company's two guided ranges[7].

Three things matter most in this TJX third-quarter report. First, whether Marmaxx comparable sales can climb from +1% in the second quarter back above 2%: the division supplies about six-tenths of sales, its second-quarter growth came entirely from a bigger basket while transactions dipped slightly, and management blamed its own merchandise mix and said trends improved in August[8][9], so the third quarter will test whether this was a one-off miss or a more durable slowdown. Second, whether adjusted gross margin can hold the 32.1% to 32.2% guidance: the year-over-year tariff benefit of the first half disappears from the third quarter while fuel and freight turn into a drag, which is why the company guided adjusted pretax margin 0.3 to 0.4 points below last year's 12.7%[6][10], the first quarterly guide this fiscal year for a year-over-year margin decline. Third, HomeGoods lifted its adjusted segment margin by 2.4 points to 12.4% in the second quarter, and the CFO said the largest single driver was lower tariff costs[11][12]; whether the division's margin still beats last year in the third quarter will show how much of that improvement belongs to the business itself.

Company Background and Business Structure

TJX is an off-price retail group driven by opportunistic buying, selling branded apparel and home goods every day at prices generally 20% to 60% below full-price retailers[13]. The company was incorporated in 1962, founded TJ Maxx in 1976 and acquired Marshalls in 1995, having earlier acquired Winners in Canada in 1990 and opened TK Maxx in Europe in 1994; it now reports four segments, Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada and TJX International, with Sierra's results included in Marmaxx[14]. Its buying organization numbers more than 1,400 people sourcing from over 100 countries[15], drawing on roughly 21,000 vendors, including thousands added in fiscal 2026[16]; 86% of its roughly 377,000 employees work in stores, and the company does not advertise merchandise prices, focusing instead on brand messaging.

The four segments differ sharply in size and profitability, and the U.S. Marmaxx division is by far the largest. In fiscal 2026, ended January 31, 2026, Marmaxx generated net sales of $36.585 billion at a 15.1% segment margin[17], HomeGoods $10.172 billion at 12.2%[18], TJX Canada $5.629 billion at 13.4%[19] and TJX International, covering Europe and Australia, $7.986 billion at 7.0%[20]. By geography, the United States contributes 78% of revenue, Canada 9%, Europe 12% and Australia 1%[21]; Marmaxx alone accounts for 60.6% of consolidated sales, and its $5.528 billion segment profit is about 68% of the four segments' combined profit.

The operating chain centralizes buying judgment at headquarters and treats stores as flexible shelf space. Buyers purchase brand closeouts, overruns, cancelled orders and special production throughout the year, mostly for the current or immediately upcoming season[15]; goods flow into distribution centers and are allocated to stores by centralized planning and allocation systems, with pricing, markdown and store inventory decisions also made centrally[22]. Revenue comes almost entirely from store retail, with e-commerce only about 2%[23], and customers pay in cash or by card, so cash collection is essentially immediate; the company pays promptly according to its terms and does not ask for typical retail concessions such as advertising or markdown allowances, which earns it priority supply from vendors[16]. The second half, which includes back-to-school and the year-end holidays, generally brings higher sales and income[24]; outside its consolidated businesses, the company holds an equity-method joint venture with Grupo Axo and a minority stake in BFL[25].

Financial History and Current Position

TJX's revenue has grown through the past three full fiscal years, and margins stepped up noticeably in fiscal 2026. Net sales rose from $54.217 billion in fiscal 2024 to $56.360 billion in fiscal 2025 and $60.372 billion in fiscal 2026; the 7% fiscal 2026 increase comprised a 5% comparable-sales gain, a 2% non-comparable contribution and a neutral currency effect[26][23]. Fiscal 2026 pretax margin was 12.1%, up from 11.5%, and diluted EPS was $4.87 against $4.26; the cost of sales ratio was 69.0% and the SG&A ratio 19.1%, down 0.4 and 0.3 points respectively[26][27]. The SG&A improvement came from a credit card interchange fee litigation settlement, which produced a $419 million gain alongside $116 million of incentive compensation and an $82 million one-time bonus, or $198 million in related expenses[28].

Fiscal 2026 cash flow comfortably covered both expansion and shareholder returns. Operating cash flow was $6.874 billion and capital expenditure $1.957 billion, including $921 million for store renovations, $851 million for offices and distribution centers and $185 million for new stores[25]. The company repurchased $2.522 billion of stock in the same year and paid about $1.8 billion in dividends, or $1.70 per share, and it plans a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share in fiscal 2027[29]; it ended the year with about $6.2 billion of cash and no short-term borrowings or commercial paper outstanding[30].

In fiscal 2027, consolidated sales are still growing, but the growth center has shifted from Marmaxx to the other three segments. First-quarter net sales, for the period ended May 2, 2026, were $14.323 billion, up 9%, with comparable sales up 6%, a 12.0% pretax margin and diluted EPS of $1.19, up 29%[31]; comparable sales at Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada and TJX International were +6%, +9%, +7% and +4%[32]. In the second quarter, consolidated comparable sales rose 4%, but the four segments came in at +1%, +7%, +6% and +7%[33]; during the quarter the company received $331 million of IEEPA tariff refunds and accrued $112 million of related incentive compensation and bonuses, a net benefit of $219 million that lifted GAAP EPS of $1.36 by $0.14 above the adjusted figure[34][3].

At the end of the second quarter, the balance sheet was solid and full-year guidance remained measured even after being raised. First-half operating cash flow was $3.345 billion, including receipt of the tariff refunds and the interchange settlement, and capital expenditure was $1.159 billion[35]; over the same period the company repurchased $1.418 billion of stock and paid $1.005 billion in dividends, holding $6.004 billion of cash on August 1[36]. Inventories that day were $7.862 billion, with per-store inventory up 3% in constant currency[37]; long-term debt was $1.871 billion, and the $1 billion of 2.25% notes maturing in September 2026 were to be repaid from operating cash[30][6]. For fiscal 2027 the company guides to comparable sales up 3% to 4%, sales of $63.4 billion to $63.8 billion, adjusted pretax margin of 12.0% to 12.1%, adjusted EPS of $5.15 to $5.20, or $5.31 to $5.36 on a GAAP basis, buybacks of $2.75 billion to $3.0 billion and capital spending of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion[5][6][35].

Operating Model

TJX revenue breaks down into comparable sales across four segments, new-store contribution and currency. Consolidated net sales equal the sum of the four segments, each of which is roughly last year's sales multiplied by one plus comparable growth plus non-comparable, new-store contribution, adjusted for currency translation, while comparable sales equal customer transactions multiplied by the average basket, the dollar value per transaction[38]. Fiscal 2026 sales of $60.372 billion reflected +5% comparable growth, +2% non-comparable growth and a neutral currency effect[23]; second-quarter fiscal 2027 sales of $15.18 billion reflected +4% comparable growth, +2% non-comparable growth and a 1% currency drag. Because the company discloses only the direction of transactions and basket, not their values, comparable sales cannot be split further into volume and price.

Profit depends on four variables, markon, freight and fuel, tariffs and store wages, and gross margin reacts fastest. Pretax income equals net sales minus cost of sales, which includes merchandise, freight and fuel, tariffs and buying and occupancy costs, minus SG&A dominated by store payroll, plus net interest income[26]. The fiscal 2026 pretax margin of 12.1% roughly equals a 31.0% gross margin minus 19.1% SG&A plus 0.2% net interest, while the second-quarter fiscal 2027 adjusted pretax margin of 11.9% comprised a 31.4% adjusted gross margin minus 19.7% adjusted SG&A plus about 0.2% net interest[39]. At roughly $15.7 billion of third-quarter sales, each 0.1-point move in gross margin or the SG&A ratio is worth about $16 million of pretax profit, and changes in comparable sales are amplified into margin through fixed costs such as store payroll, usually within the same quarter.

Cash flow tracks profit closely, and capital allocation is paced mainly by store growth and buybacks. Retail revenue is collected immediately and inventory moves broadly in step with payables, so operating cash flow is close to net income plus depreciation; fiscal 2026 operating cash flow rose $758 million, mainly on higher net income and larger incentive compensation accruals, partly offset by a rise in inventory net of payables[25]. First-half fiscal 2027 operating cash flow was $1.1 billion above the prior year, including two one-off inflows from tariff refunds and the interchange settlement[35]; the company plans full-year capital spending of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion and buybacks of $2.75 billion to $3.0 billion, and it planned to repay the $1 billion note from operating cash in the third quarter[6].

Industry and Competitive Position

TJX is the largest operator in both U.S. off-price apparel and off-price home, and its edge shows up in merchandise access rather than price advertising. Marmaxx's TJ Maxx and Marshalls together run 2,603 stores, making them the largest off-price apparel retailer in the United States[14]; HomeGoods is the largest off-price home retailer, and the company is also a leading brick-and-mortar off-price retailer in Canada and Europe. Compared with conventional retailers, TJX buys closer to the selling season, carries less inventory, turns it faster and does not run promotions, so it can buy more cheaply when brands and department stores are overstocked[15][22]; the company says it has not had difficulty obtaining enough quality merchandise in either favorable or difficult retail environments[16].

Management uses its own measurements to argue that competition did not cause the second-quarter Marmaxx slowdown, but that comparison has clear limits. The CEO said the company measured stores near direct off-price competitors against stores without them and found their comparable performance almost identical, so the problem lay in its own execution[40]. In August the company raised its long-term store target by 500 to 7,500, including a combined 3,300 TJ Maxx and Marshalls stores and an increase for the HomeGoods division from 1,800 to 2,000, and it plans to lift store growth from about 3% to 4% starting in fiscal 2028[41]. However, the available material contains no competitor financials, and the comparison is the company's own measurement, so TJX's share shift relative to peers cannot be independently verified.

Core Debates

Marmaxx comparable sales rose only 1% in the second quarter, and management blamed its own merchandise mix. Can the division that makes up six-tenths of sales get back above 2% in the third quarter?

Marmaxx is the core of TJX profit, and its comparable growth largely determines whether consolidated guidance is met. The division posted fiscal 2026 net sales of $36.585 billion, 60.6% of consolidated sales, and segment profit of $5.528 billion, about 68% of the four segments' combined profit[17]. Based on second-quarter sales of $9.109 billion, each point of comparable growth is worth about $90 million of revenue per quarter and is amplified into profit through fixed costs such as store payroll[4]. The company guides third-quarter consolidated comparable sales to +2% to +3%, and with the other three segments all growing 6% to 7% in the second quarter, whether that guide is met depends mainly on Marmaxx.

Second-quarter data show that the Marmaxx slowdown was concentrated in traffic, while markon held the margin. Comparable sales fell from +6% in the first quarter to +1% in the second[32][33], driven entirely by a higher average basket while customer transactions declined slightly, and net sales of $9.109 billion grew only 3%[42][8]. Management said a handful of categories at TJ Maxx and Marshalls did not have the right goods in the right stores at the right time, calling the miss self-inflicted and within its control, and it has added two systematic checks to its planning process[9]. Adjusted segment margin was 14.2%, flat year over year, against 15.6% on a GAAP basis that includes a 1.4-point net tariff-refund benefit[11]; according to the prior-year results the company published on November 19, 2025, Marmaxx comparable sales rose 6% in last year's third quarter with a 14.9% segment margin.

The crux is whether falling traffic reflects a merchandise problem or a demand problem, and the two explanations transmit to profit very differently. The chain runs from buyers' opportunistic purchasing and allocation to each store's category mix, from mix to whether shoppers find what they want, and from there to transactions and basket, ending in Marmaxx comparable sales, store expense leverage and segment profit[43]. Management's view is that trends improved in August, that it is most confident of a return to 2% to 3% by the fourth quarter, and that stores near off-price competitors performed the same as those without[40]; the alternative reading is that if customers are pulling back on apparel itself, falling traffic is more than a stock problem, and the third quarter also laps a demanding +6% comparison. Management has not named the problem categories and discloses only the direction of traffic, so the relationship cannot yet be settled from the data.

The third-quarter report's best tests of this debate are Marmaxx comparable sales, traffic direction and segment margin. If Marmaxx comparable sales reach +2% or better, transactions return to growth, adjusted segment margin holds last year's third-quarter level and the company reiterates a fourth-quarter return to 2% to 3%, management's self-inflicted-miss explanation gains support. Conversely, comparable sales at or below +1% would show the problem is more than a second-quarter mix error, and heavier markdowns to clear the mix that push the segment margin lower would show the repair is being paid for with profit.

With fuel and freight costs rising and the tariff tailwind fading, can TJX hold its third-quarter gross margin guidance of 32.1% to 32.2%?

The third quarter is the first this fiscal year for which the company itself guided to a year-over-year margin decline, and gross margin is the largest variable in it. TJX does not run promotions, so profit comes mainly from markon on opportunistic buys; first-half fiscal 2027 adjusted pretax margin was 11.9%, with merchandise margin helped by favorable tariffs[34]. For the third quarter the company guides adjusted pretax margin to 12.3% to 12.4%, 0.3 to 0.4 points below last year's 12.7%, with adjusted gross margin of 32.1% to 32.2%, 0.4 to 0.5 points below last year's 32.6%, mainly because of higher fuel costs[6]. At third-quarter sales levels, each 0.1 point of gross margin is worth about $16 million of pretax profit.

Most of the second-quarter gross-margin gain came from tariffs, and that year-over-year benefit disappears in the second half. Adjusted gross margin was 31.4% in the second quarter, up 0.7 points, which management attributed mostly to tariff favorability[44]: last year some goods were ordered before tariffs took effect and could not be renegotiated, while this year tariffs were negotiated into orders and then eliminated, a difference that ends from the third quarter[10]. On fuel, the company hedges only about 50% of its domestic diesel needs and marks those hedges to market each quarter, which helped in the first quarter and has since turned into a drag[45][46]; fewer available truck drivers are also pushing freight rates higher. On SG&A, second-quarter adjusted SG&A was 19.7%, up 0.2 points on higher store wages, and the third-quarter guide is 20.0%, 0.1 point below last year's 20.1%[39][6].

Whether the guide is conservative is the other side of this debate, and the GAAP figure adds uncertain tariff refunds on top. The chain runs from diesel prices and driver supply to carriers' fuel surcharges and freight rates, which combine with tariff costs and refunds, markon and markdowns to set merchandise margin; subtracting wage-driven SG&A then yields adjusted pretax margin and EPS[47]. The case for a better outcome is that margins in both quarters of this fiscal year came in "well above plan"[31][3]; if comparable sales beat +2% to +3%, expense leverage and markon could again offset the fuel drag. On the other side, the company estimates it paid about $490 million of IEEPA tariffs and had received $331 million of refunds by the end of the second quarter, and it anticipates more refunds in the third quarter, but their amount, timing and likelihood are uncertain[48][5], so the 0.5-point net benefit built into GAAP guidance is uncertain as well.

The third-quarter report will test this debate through gross margin, the expense ratio and the treatment of tariffs. The points to check are whether adjusted gross margin lands at 32.1% to 32.2% or better, whether management quantifies the fuel and freight drag, whether adjusted SG&A stays at 20.0%, how large third-quarter tariff refunds are and how they are excluded from adjusted results, and per-store inventory growth at quarter end, which was +3% at the end of the second quarter and, per the company's figures published last November, +8% at the end of last year's third quarter[37]. Adjusted gross margin below 32.0% would show fuel, freight or markdowns running beyond plan, and adjusted SG&A above 20.2% from store-wage deleverage would show costs eroding margin as well.

HomeGoods lifted its margin by 2.4 points in the second quarter. How much of that came from lower tariffs, and how much will remain once the tariff tailwind fades in the third quarter?

HomeGoods is TJX's fastest-growing U.S. segment, and whether it becomes a second profit pillar depends on its margin beyond tariffs. The division posted fiscal 2026 net sales of $10.172 billion and segment profit of $1.246 billion, with margin rising from 10.9% to 12.2%[18]. In August the company raised the HomeGoods division's long-term store target from 1,800 to 2,000[41], and the division operated 1,059 stores at the end of the second quarter, 973 HomeGoods and 86 Homesense[1]. If the margin improvement came mainly from tariffs, the profit contribution from expansion will be smaller than the second quarter suggests.

HomeGoods sales momentum is genuinely strong, but its year-over-year margin gain has several sources. Comparable sales rose 9% in the first quarter and 7% in the second[32][33], second-quarter net sales of $2.507 billion grew 10%, both basket and transactions increased, and every region performed strongly[49]; management said both banners did well across regions and income groups[8]. Second-quarter adjusted segment margin was 12.4%, up 2.4 points, against 17.6% on a GAAP basis that includes a 5.2-point net tariff-refund benefit[11]; the 10-Q lists tariffs, better markon, lower freight, lower supply chain and store costs and leverage from comparable sales as drivers, while noting higher markdowns[49].

The difficulty in splitting it is that the CFO explicitly named tariffs as the largest contributor to the margin gain, and that year-over-year benefit ends from the third quarter. On the call he said a 7% comparable increase expands margin on its own and the division also had operational efficiencies, but the largest item was the merchandise-margin improvement from lower tariff costs[12]. The chain runs from the mix and freshness of home decor, kitchen and replenishment categories to basket and traffic, then to comparable and new-store sales, and finally through expense leverage and markon, less import tariffs and freight, into segment profit[10]. The company has not quantified tariffs' share of the 2.4 points, so how much survives beyond tariffs can only be answered by third-quarter year-over-year data.

The third-quarter tests of this debate are comparable sales, margin and store count. The points to check are whether HomeGoods comparable sales are no lower than +5%, whether adjusted segment margin exceeds last year's third-quarter 13.5%, from prior-year figures the company published on November 19, 2025, how the company splits margin drivers among tariffs, markon and supply chain, and whether the quarter-end store count reaches 1,070. Comparable sales below +4% would signal slowing home growth, and margin expansion that nearly vanishes once the tariff benefit fades would show the second-quarter gain was mainly tariff-driven.

Risks and Falsifiers

Store wages are TJX's most persistent cost pressure and are harder to absorb when comparable sales slow. About 86% of the company's roughly 377,000 employees work in stores, and the 10-K states that operating expenses will continue to reflect rising labor costs[50]; second-quarter adjusted SG&A of 19.7%, up 0.2 points, was driven precisely by store wage and payroll costs[39]. This risk acts directly on consolidated SG&A, where each 0.1 point is worth about $16 million of pretax profit; a third-quarter adjusted SG&A ratio no higher than 20.0% would show wage pressure remains manageable.

Currency affects both revenue translation and sourcing costs in the international segments, so international margin gains are not purely operational. TJX Canada and TJX International together account for about 22% of sales, with fiscal 2026 net sales of $5.629 billion and $7.986 billion[21][19][20]; translation affects revenue and transactional currency affects markon, and part of the second-quarter margin gain in the international segments came from favorable transactional currency effects on sourcing costs[11]. If the international segments sustain comparable growth and margin gains on a constant-currency basis, this risk is falsified.

If the Marmaxx mix errors persist, a one-time stock problem could turn into lost traffic. Opportunistic buying places considerable judgment with merchants, and the 10-K states that failing to get the right goods into the right stores at the right time, price and mix could hurt customer transactions, sales and profit[43]. The exposed lines are Marmaxx net sales and its $5.528 billion segment profit, with each lost point of comparable growth costing about $90 million of quarterly revenue[17]; Marmaxx comparable sales back above +2% in the third quarter with traffic returning to growth would falsify this risk.

Fuel and freight are the clearest drag in the third-quarter gross-margin guide, and the company hedges only half of its exposure. Carriers charge a mileage surcharge tied to diesel prices, the company generally hedges only about 50% of its domestic diesel requirements, and tighter driver supply is lifting freight rates[45][10]; the 10-K warns that energy and fuel costs can fluctuate dramatically[47]. This risk acts on the 32.1% to 32.2% adjusted gross-margin guide; adjusted gross margin of at least 32.1% together with management saying the fuel and freight drag was within plan would falsify it.

Shifting tariff policy flows straight into HomeGoods cost of sales, making the durability of its margin gain harder to judge. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs, after which an executive order imposed a new global tariff[51]; changes in tariffs on imported home goods directly affect the HomeGoods segment margin, 12.4% adjusted in the second quarter, and consolidated merchandise margin[12]. If the HomeGoods adjusted segment margin still exceeds the prior-year level in the third quarter, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

• Marmaxx recovery: third-quarter comparable sales against +1% in the second quarter, +6% in the first quarter and +6% a year earlier; +2% or better supports a one-off miss, while +1% or lower points to a more durable problem.
• Marmaxx traffic: second-quarter transactions dipped slightly and growth relied entirely on basket; a return to traffic growth supports the merchandise explanation, while continued decline points to softer demand.
• Marmaxx margin: second-quarter adjusted segment margin of 14.2%, flat year over year; markdown-driven erosion to clear the mix would weaken the quality of the repair.
• Third-quarter gross margin: guidance of 32.1% to 32.2% against 32.6% a year earlier; below 32.0% would mean fuel, freight or markdowns exceeded plan.
• SG&A: guidance of 20.0% against 20.1% a year earlier; above 20.2% would signal expense deleverage from store wages.
• IEEPA tariff refunds: $331 million received of roughly $490 million paid; the third-quarter amount and its exclusion from adjusted results set the gap between GAAP and adjusted figures.
• HomeGoods comparable sales: +7% in the second quarter and +9% in the first; below +4% would signal slowing home growth.
• HomeGoods margin: 12.4% adjusted in the second quarter, up 2.4 points, against 13.5% in last year's third quarter; expansion that nearly disappears would show the gain was mainly tariff-driven.
• HomeGoods stores: 1,059 at the end of the second quarter; whether the count reaches 1,070 by the end of the third quarter.

Conclusion

TJX's business runs on its buyers' opportunistic purchasing and on store traffic, and its financial position is strong, but neither the growth rate of its largest division nor the source of its margin gains is settled. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $60.372 billion with a 12.1% pretax margin[26], first-half fiscal 2027 consolidated comparable sales still rose 5%, and the company held $6.004 billion of cash on August 1[3][36]; the open question is that Marmaxx, six-tenths of sales, managed only +1% comparable growth in the second quarter, while a meaningful part of the improvement at HomeGoods and in consolidated gross margin came from a tariff benefit that is about to fade. The core third-quarter relationship is whether Marmaxx traffic recovers, and how much margin markon and expense leverage can sustain once fuel and freight rise and the tariff benefit disappears.

Outside interpretation since the second-quarter report is thin, and the only view with a substantive argument is more pessimistic than management. According to German financial site Goldesel on August 26, 2026, Jefferies sees the Marmaxx comparable slowdown from +6% to +1% as material rather than a routine quarterly stumble, the division's weakest performance since fiscal 2018 excluding the pandemic, and one that may last longer than earlier "missteps"; Jefferies also notes that Marmaxx accounts for more than 60% of sales and nearly 70% of EBIT[52]. That view directly conflicts with management's position that trends improved in August and that a return to 2% to 3% is most likely by the fourth quarter[40], and it maps onto the first core debate; it is an outside interpretation, not a fact. Another broker report from the same period covered only the change in its stance without an operating argument, and for the gross-margin and HomeGoods-margin debates no outside interpretation with a substantive argument was found.

What would materially strengthen the current understanding is a combination of operating and financial observations arriving together: Marmaxx third-quarter comparable sales back above +2% with traffic recovering, adjusted gross margin no lower than 32.1% and adjusted SG&A no higher than 20.0%, and the HomeGoods adjusted segment margin still above the prior-year level. Conversely, if Marmaxx comparable sales stay at +1% or below with traffic still falling, while adjusted gross margin drops below 32.0% or HomeGoods margin expansion nearly disappears, that would indicate the second-quarter slowdown is more durable and that first-half margin gains relied more on tariffs than on the business itself.

Sources

[1] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q2 store count · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[2] TJX earnings calendar updated 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-05 · 财报日历 / earnings calendar

[3] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q2 results headline · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[4] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q2 segment net sales and profit table · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[5] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q3 and FY27 outlook · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[6] TJX Q2 FY27 earnings call 2026-08-19 · Q3 and FY27 adjusted guidance detail · 2026-08-19 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] Drillr analyst estimates TJX Q3 FY27 retrieved 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-05 · Drillr 分析师预测汇总 · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] TJX Q2 FY27 earnings call 2026-08-19 · divisional comp drivers · 2026-08-19 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] TJX Q2 FY27 earnings call 2026-08-19 · Marmaxx execution miss and recovery timing · 2026-08-19 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] TJX Q2 FY27 earnings call 2026-08-19 · second-half freight fuel and tariff anniversary · 2026-08-19 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[11] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q2 adjusted segment profit margins · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[12] TJX Q2 FY27 earnings call 2026-08-19 · HomeGoods margin drivers · 2026-08-19 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[13] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · off-price model and pricing · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[14] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · four segments and banners · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[15] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · opportunistic buying · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[16] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · vendor universe · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[17] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · Marmaxx FY2026 segment results · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[18] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · HomeGoods FY2026 segment results · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[19] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · TJX Canada FY2026 segment results · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[20] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · TJX International FY2026 segment results · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[21] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · revenue by geography · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[22] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · inventory management and pricing · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[23] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · FY2026 net sales and comp drivers · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[24] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · seasonality · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[25] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · FY2026 cash flow and FY2027 capex plan · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[26] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · FY2026 results highlights · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[27] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · FY2026 cost of sales and SG&A · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[28] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · interchange fee settlement · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[29] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · FY2027 buyback and dividend plan · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[30] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · liquidity and September 2026 notes · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[31] TJX 8-K filed 2026-05-20 (Q1 FY27 earnings release) · Q1 results and raised FY27 guidance · 2026-05-20 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000023/tjxq1fy27earningspressrele.htm

[32] TJX 8-K filed 2026-05-20 (Q1 FY27 earnings release) · Q1 comparable sales by division · 2026-05-20 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000023/tjxq1fy27earningspressrele.htm

[33] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q2 comparable sales and net sales by division · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[34] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q2 tariff refunds and adjusted reconciliation · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[35] TJX 10-Q filed 2026-08-28 (Q2 FY27) · H1 operating cash flow and note repayment · 2026-08-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000048/tjx-20260801.htm

[36] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q2 cash and shareholder distributions · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[37] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q2 inventory · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[38] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · comp sales and transaction definitions · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[39] TJX 8-K filed 2026-08-19 (Q2 FY27 earnings release) · Q2 margins · 2026-08-19 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000045/tjxq2fy27earningspressrele.htm

[40] TJX Q2 FY27 earnings call 2026-08-19 · Marmaxx Q4 recovery and peer comparison · 2026-08-19 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[41] TJX Q2 FY27 earnings call 2026-08-19 · store growth acceleration · 2026-08-19 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[42] TJX 10-Q filed 2026-08-28 (Q2 FY27) · Marmaxx Q2 sales and margin drivers · 2026-08-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000048/tjx-20260801.htm

[43] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · buying execution risk · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[44] TJX Q2 FY27 earnings call 2026-08-19 · Q2 adjusted margin drivers · 2026-08-19 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[45] TJX 10-Q filed 2026-08-28 (Q2 FY27) · diesel fuel hedging · 2026-08-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000048/tjx-20260801.htm

[46] TJX 10-Q filed 2026-08-28 (Q2 FY27) · general corporate expense and hedges · 2026-08-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000048/tjx-20260801.htm

[47] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · fuel cost risk · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[48] TJX 10-Q filed 2026-08-28 (Q2 FY27) · IEEPA tariffs paid and refunds received · 2026-08-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000048/tjx-20260801.htm

[49] TJX 10-Q filed 2026-08-28 (Q2 FY27) · HomeGoods Q2 sales and margin drivers · 2026-08-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000048/tjx-20260801.htm

[50] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · labor cost risk · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[51] TJX 10-K filed 2026-03-31 · IEEPA ruling and tariff uncertainty · 2026-03-31 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm

[52] Goldesel 2026-08-26 Jefferies on TJX Marmaxx slowdown · 2026-08-26 · Jefferies(Goldesel 转述) · https://goldesel.de/aktien/news/jefferies-stuf-t-tjx-auf-hold-ab-marmaxx-schwache-wirkt-anhaltender-kurs-durfte-seitwarts-laufen