[HMC] Honda: Q2 earnings preview on EV supplier losses and auto margins

Honda is one of the world's largest makers of motorcycles and cars, and it also runs a North America-focused auto finance arm and a power products business. According to the Drillr earnings calendar, Honda will release its Fiscal 2027 second quarter and first half (three and six months ended September 30, 2026) results on 2026-11-11[1]. In the latest reported period, the fiscal first quarter ended June 30, 2026, sales revenue rose 13.5% to ¥6,061.5 billion, operating profit reached ¥530.8 billion against ¥244.2 billion a year earlier, and profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥450.9 billion[2][3]; Honda booked no EV-related losses in the quarter[4]. On August 5 the company raised its full-year forecast to sales revenue of ¥24,150 billion, operating profit of ¥650 billion and parent profit of ¥400 billion, moving its exchange-rate assumption from ¥145 to ¥155 per U.S. dollar[5]; it also guided adjusted operating profit excluding EV-related losses to ¥1,170 billion and set the full-year EV-related loss allowance at ¥520 billion[6]. The average of eight analysts compiled by Drillr puts second-quarter sales revenue at ¥5,799.3 billion, EBIT at ¥309.4 billion and net income at ¥211.4 billion, with full-year EBIT at ¥898.8 billion, above Honda's ¥650 billion operating profit guidance; EBIT may not be measured exactly like Honda's operating profit[7].

Three things matter most in this Honda earnings preview. The first is the auto margin: the automobile segment earned ¥192.1 billion in the first quarter, a 5.0% margin, after the segment barely broke even in fiscal 2026 once EV losses are excluded[3][8], and the second quarter will test whether that recovery rests on North American hybrid demand or on a weak yen, through Kumamoto earthquake shutdowns at Japanese plants and higher memory-chip prices. The second is when EV supplier compensation hits the income statement: the entire ¥520 billion gap between the ¥650 billion and ¥1,170 billion guidance figures is EV-related losses, none were booked in the first quarter, and management said recognition could begin step by step as early as the second quarter[6][9], so the first-half amount and whether the allowance moves only with currency will decide whether reported profit faces another large cut. The third is whether motorcycles can hold a high margin: the segment earned ¥234.0 billion in the first quarter, a margin of about 20.5% and 44.1% of group operating profit[3][8], and the second quarter will show whether volume growth in India and Brazil can keep the margin above 18% if currency support fades.

Company Background and Business Structure

Honda is a Japanese manufacturer built on motorcycles and cars, with an auto finance business attached, and North America is where its auto profit and finance assets are most concentrated. The company reports four segments: Motorcycle (including ATVs and side-by-sides), Automobile (the Honda and Acura brands), Financial Services, and Power Products and Other Businesses[10][11]. In fiscal 2026, the year ended March 31, 2026, external sales revenue for those four segments was ¥4,018.8 billion, ¥13,863.3 billion, ¥3,529.4 billion and ¥384.9 billion, and automobiles made up about 64% of group revenue[10][12].

The motorcycle and auto businesses have very different geographic footprints, which gives them different sensitivity to currency and demand. On a group basis, about 85% of Honda's motorcycle units are sold in Asia, where India is the largest market, while about 47% of its automobile units are sold in North America, followed by 27% in Asia and 18% in Japan[11][13]. Consolidated automobile unit sales were 2,711 thousand in fiscal 2026, including 1,605 thousand in North America, and North American automobile revenue of ¥9,213.4 billion was about two-thirds of the segment's external revenue[12]. Outside Japan, about 98% of Honda's sales go through its principal foreign sales subsidiaries, which distribute to local wholesalers and independent dealers[11].

Honda runs its China auto business through two equity-method joint ventures, Dongfeng Honda and GAC Honda, so their units are excluded from consolidated revenue and their earnings appear only below operating profit. Unit sales at the two ventures fell 25.4% to 586 thousand in fiscal 2026[14], and in July 2026 Honda and Guangzhou Automobile Group agreed to extend the GAC Honda venture through 2038, a step Honda said would not materially affect fiscal 2027 consolidated results[15]. During fiscal 2026 Honda decided to cancel the development and launch of EV models planned for production in North America, and over the three years ending March 2029 it plans to shift resources once earmarked for EVs to hybrid vehicles[16][17].

Financial History and Current Position

Honda's revenue was roughly flat in fiscal 2026, but EV-related losses and tariffs pushed it to an operating loss. Sales revenue rose 0.5% to ¥21,796.6 billion, and the operating loss was ¥414.3 billion, a swing of ¥1,627.8 billion from the prior year's operating profit of ¥1,213.5 billion[18]. The loss attributable to owners of the parent was ¥423.9 billion, or ¥106.06 per share[5]. The annual report notes show about ¥1,453.7 billion of EV-related losses in cost of sales, SG&A and R&D, plus ¥124.1 billion in equity-method results, all within the Automobile business[19]; on that basis, group operating profit excluding operating-level EV losses would have been about ¥1,039.3 billion.

The segment results show that nearly all of Honda's fiscal 2026 profit came from motorcycles and financial services. Motorcycle operating profit rose 10.3% to ¥731.9 billion, a margin of about 18.2%[20]; the Automobile segment lost ¥1,411.1 billion, Financial Services earned ¥275.5 billion and Power Products and Other lost ¥10.7 billion[10]. Adding back the ¥1,453.7 billion of EV-related losses leaves the Automobile segment with only about ¥42.5 billion of profit, a margin of roughly 0.3%[21][19].

Cash flow improved markedly in fiscal 2026, though the group figure includes lending outflows from the finance business. Net cash from operating activities was ¥1,135.3 billion, compared with ¥292.2 billion and ¥747.3 billion in the two prior years; payments for property, plant and equipment were ¥612.1 billion and payments for intangible assets and development costs were ¥285.5 billion[22]. At March 31, 2026, provisions for losses on EV-related contracts stood at ¥561.2 billion, and a separate onerous-contract provision under an alliance agreement stood at ¥86.3 billion, with the latter expected to flow out within one year[23].

The fiscal 2027 first quarter set Honda's record for quarterly operating profit, but it carried no EV losses. Sales revenue was ¥6,061.5 billion, operating profit was ¥530.8 billion and parent profit rose 129.3% to ¥450.9 billion[2][3]; by segment, Motorcycle earned ¥234.0 billion, Automobile ¥192.1 billion and Financial Services ¥105.8 billion, while the Automobile segment had lost ¥29.6 billion a year earlier[3]. Operating cash flow for the quarter was ¥292.5 billion, and payments for property, plant and equipment jumped to ¥579.7 billion from ¥128.2 billion; Honda bought back no stock in the quarter, against net repurchases of ¥363.2 billion a year earlier[24]. The capital spending included a US$2,530 million purchase of buildings from an affiliate, which management described as the plant buildings of its U.S. battery joint venture with LG Energy Solution[16][6]. At the end of June, total assets were ¥34,438.0 billion and net cash in the non-financial businesses was about ¥3.33 trillion[3][4].

Operating Model

Honda's revenue is driven by volume, price and currency translation, and the motorcycle and auto drivers barely overlap geographically. Motorcycle revenue is roughly Asia-weighted unit volume times average price, translated from local currencies into yen; automobile revenue is roughly North America-weighted consolidated volume times revenue per vehicle, with light trucks such as the CR-V, Pilot and HR-V making up 57% of retail units[25]. Currency translation matters: at the prior year's exchange rates, fiscal 2026 revenue would have grown about 1.2% instead of the reported 0.5%[18]. Financial Services revenue comes mainly from North American retail loan interest, operating lease income and the disposal of lease vehicles[26].

Operating-profit leverage sits mostly in the auto business's model mix, incentives and costs, while motorcycles provide steady profit through scale. In Japan and the United States, light trucks carry a contribution margin about 15% above the weighted average, passenger cars about 5% below it, and Japan-only mini vehicles about 70% below it[25], so more North American light-truck and hybrid sales mean a higher auto margin. Honda breaks profit changes into volume, price and cost, expenses, currency, tariffs and EV-related losses; in fiscal 2026 the auto loss came mainly from EV-related losses and tariffs, partly offset by price and cost[21]. EV-related losses sit in the Automobile segment's cost of sales and R&D, and the company separately discloses adjusted operating profit excluding them[19][6].

The key to cash flow is separating cash generated by manufacturing from asset growth in the finance arm. Growth in finance loans and leases shows up as an operating cash outflow funded mainly by financing liabilities, so group operating cash flow understates what manufacturing actually generates; in the first quarter, capital expenditures were ¥811.1 billion in Financial Services and ¥626.3 billion in Automobile[3]. Over the next three years Honda plans ¥6.2 trillion of resource investment, including ¥4.4 trillion in combustion and hybrid vehicles and ¥1.0 trillion in software, with EV spending held to about ¥0.8 trillion[17]; shareholder returns target a 3% dividend on equity, and the fiscal 2027 annual dividend is ¥70 per share[4]. Once EV supplier compensation is recognized, it will lower operating profit first and then turn into cash payments[27].

Industry and Competitive Position

Honda's scale gives it an edge in emerging-market motorcycles, and it grew volume in India even though the overall market was flat. Total motorcycle demand in India was about 19,240 thousand units in 2025, basically unchanged, while demand in the rest of Asia rose about 3% to 18,410 thousand; Honda's consolidated Asian unit sales nonetheless rose 6.8% to 11,310 thousand in fiscal 2026, led by the Activa and SP series in India[13]. That pattern indicates Honda gained share in India rather than simply riding market growth.

The North American car market was steady, and Honda's relative position improved in the fiscal 2027 first quarter. Total U.S. auto demand rose about 2% to roughly 16,350 thousand units in 2025, while Honda's North American consolidated sales fell 3.0% to 1,605 thousand in fiscal 2026, mainly because of lower PROLOGUE and PILOT sales[28]. In the fiscal 2027 first quarter, higher gasoline prices lifted demand for fuel-efficient hybrids and pushed Honda's North American market share above 10% for the first time in five years[4]. U.S. tariffs, the elimination of EV purchase tax incentives and looser emissions rules removed the economics of Honda's earlier North American EV investment, which was the direct cause of the fiscal 2026 loss[19].

China is where Honda's competitive position is weakest, as local brands' electric vehicles rapidly displace combustion and hybrid cars. China's combustion and hybrid market contracted about 40% in the first quarter, and Honda's China retail sales were just over 80 thousand units, down about 50% year on year; Honda has cut its China combustion and hybrid capacity from 1.5 million units a year to just over 700 thousand and is evaluating local partners' EV platforms[9][4]. The disclosures cited here cover only Honda's own data and include no peer segment profit or share figures, so Honda's cost and product gap against other Japanese or local carmakers cannot be quantified.

Core Debates

Honda's auto business earned a margin of about 5% in its fiscal first quarter before EV-related losses. Can it hold that margin through the Kumamoto earthquake shutdowns and higher chip costs, showing that North American hybrid demand, not a weaker yen, drives the recovery?

The auto business decides whether Honda can deliver its adjusted full-year profit guidance, because it is nearly two-thirds of revenue and the most volatile source of profit. Automobiles were about 64% of group revenue in fiscal 2026, yet the segment earned only about ¥42.5 billion excluding EV losses, a margin of roughly 0.3%[12][21][19]. The segment's first-quarter operating profit rebounded to ¥192.1 billion, while Honda's full-year adjusted operating profit guidance is ¥1,170 billion[3][6]; management said new models and the next-generation hybrid will start contributing only in fiscal 2028, so this year's auto profit depends mainly on North American volume, mix and cost for existing models.

Management attributed the record first-quarter profit to three factors, two of which are external. Management cited a weaker yen than assumed, raw material costs below conservative assumptions, and stronger-than-expected motorcycle and auto sales in North America and Japan, and said no one-time items distorted the result[9]. Higher gasoline prices lifted hybrid demand and pushed Honda's North American share above 10% for the first time in five years, but group automobile unit sales fell year on year to 786 thousand, with China the main drag[4][8]. After the July 28 Kumamoto earthquake, a shortage of dampers from an Astemo facility near the epicenter halted Honda's Saitama and Suzuka plants for several days in August; management did not expect a large impact on full-year volume but could not yet estimate the full effect[4][9].

The numeric baseline for this debate is clear, and the financial transmission is fairly direct. The Automobile segment earned ¥192.1 billion in the first quarter at a 5.0% margin with zero EV losses[3][8]; the full-year guidance of 3.39 million automobiles implies about 847.5 thousand per quarter, above the first quarter's 786 thousand[6]. The chain runs from North American hybrid demand to higher volume and share, which lifts segment revenue and per-unit margin; against that, the Kumamoto parts shortage reduces Japanese output and exports, while higher memory-chip prices (a ¥20–30 billion cost increase already in full-year guidance) and heavier North American incentives would compress per-unit margin[29].

What remains unresolved is whether the profit recovery comes from pricing and mix or from two external factors, currency and raw materials. The full-year exchange-rate assumption has already moved from ¥145 to ¥155[5], so if the second-quarter auto margin falls sharply while North American volume keeps growing, per-unit profit depends on currency rather than on better pricing or mix. The second-quarter 6-K reports only cumulative first-half figures, so the quarter must be derived by subtracting the first quarter, and any EV losses booked in the quarter must be added back using the amount Honda discloses before the margins can be compared.

Next, watch whether the second-quarter auto margin excluding EV losses stays at or above 3.5% and the first-half margin approaches 4.5%, and whether group automobile volume holds above 750 thousand with the 3.39 million full-year guidance intact. Also watch how management splits the profit change into currency, price and cost, and volume, whether North American incentives rise, and whether China joint-venture retail sales recover sequentially after the contract extension. If North American competition forces incentives up and pushes the auto margin below 3.5%, or the Kumamoto shortage persists and full-year volume guidance is cut, the view that North American hybrid demand is driving the recovery would weaken.

Will Honda start booking the 520 billion yen it has set aside to compensate suppliers for its North American EV retreat in the second quarter, and will the bill exceed that amount?

The cost of the EV retreat is the largest uncertainty in Honda's reported profit, and it directly decides whether full-year reported profit gets cut again. In fiscal 2026 Honda recognized about ¥1,577.8 billion of EV-related losses (about ¥1,453.7 billion at the operating level plus ¥124.1 billion in equity-method results), which produced a group operating loss of ¥414.3 billion[19][18]. In the fiscal 2027 guidance, the entire ¥520 billion gap between reported operating profit of ¥650 billion and adjusted operating profit of ¥1,170 billion is EV-related losses[5][6], and when this is booked and whether it overruns also bears on Honda's plan to eliminate EV-related losses by the fiscal year ending March 2029[17].

In both the annual report and the first-quarter filing, Honda said it could not yet reliably estimate supplier compensation and therefore had not recorded a provision. The annual report's subsequent-event note said Honda had begun assessing the impact on suppliers after cancelling the North American EV models and that additional payments may arise, but that it could not estimate them as of March 31, 2026, so no provision was recognized[16]; the first-quarter 6-K repeated this and cited a high degree of uncertainty over the amount and timing[27]. On the call, management said the ¥500 billion base was unchanged, that the ¥20 billion increase came entirely from currency because most affected suppliers are in North America and are paid in dollars, and that losses would be booked step by step once negotiations give enough confidence, starting as early as the second quarter[9][6].

The baseline for this debate is zero EV-related losses booked in the first quarter against a ¥520 billion full-year allowance. First-quarter reported and adjusted operating profit were both ¥530.8 billion[3][6]; working back from full-year guidance, adjusted operating profit for the second through fourth quarters totals about ¥639.2 billion, or about ¥213 billion a quarter, while reported operating profit for those quarters totals only ¥119.2 billion, a calculation rather than a company disclosure. The chain runs from the U.S. policy shift that led Honda to cancel its North American EV models, to compensation for suppliers' tooling, production lines and parts contracts, to a provision once negotiations produce a reliable estimate, booked in Automobile cost of sales or R&D, which first lowers reported operating profit and later becomes a cash payment[19][23].

What remains unresolved is the size and timing of the compensation. The analyst average for fiscal 2027 EBIT is ¥898.8 billion, above Honda's ¥650 billion reported guidance, and the average fourth-quarter EBIT estimate is a loss of ¥141.9 billion, which suggests most analysts assume the EV losses land in the second half[7]. Another possibility is that the compensation itself exceeds the base or that negotiations drag on and push recognition into fiscal 2028; if nothing is booked in the first half, or the base is raised, the cost of the EV retreat is not yet capped.

Next, watch whether the first-half 6-K recognizes EV-related losses and how much, whether the ¥520 billion allowance holds with any change coming only from currency, and whether first-half adjusted operating profit is at least ¥744 billion. If supplier compensation exceeds the ¥500 billion base, full-year EV losses are raised and reported operating profit guidance is cut, or recognition slips into fiscal 2028, the judgment that the EV retreat cost is essentially capped would be overturned.

Honda's motorcycle margin hit a record of about 20.5% in its fiscal first quarter. Can volume in India and Brazil keep it above 18% in the second quarter, rather than letting it fall back with currency moves?

Motorcycles are only about 18% of Honda's revenue, but they are the base of group profit while the auto business recovers. The segment earned ¥731.9 billion in fiscal 2026, the group's largest source of profit[20][10], and it contributed 44.1% of group operating profit in the first quarter[8]. While new auto models have yet to contribute, whether motorcycle profit holds sets the floor for the group's adjusted operating profit guidance.

Motorcycles set quarterly records for profit and margin in the first quarter, but management acknowledged that currency and tariffs contributed heavily. First-quarter motorcycle operating profit was ¥234.0 billion against ¥189.0 billion a year earlier, and group unit sales rose year on year to 5,663 thousand on strong demand in India and Brazil[3][8]; management said currency and tariff effects contributed significantly to the year-on-year gain[4]. Consolidated unit sales rose 7.2% to 14,673 thousand in fiscal 2026 even though total demand in India was basically flat[20][13]. Management did not raise its full-year guidance of 22.8 million units, citing Vietnam's stepwise regulatory restrictions and the situation in the Middle East[9].

The numeric baseline for this debate is the first quarter's margin of about 20.5%, against about 18.2% for fiscal 2026 as a whole. First-quarter segment revenue was ¥1,141.1 billion, up about 19.9% from ¥951.6 billion a year earlier, when the margin was about 19.9%[3]; the 22.8 million full-year guidance implies about 5,700 thousand units a quarter[6]. The chain runs from commuter demand and pre-festival dealer restocking in markets such as India and Brazil to wholesale volume and segment revenue, while fixed-cost absorption and local sourcing lift per-unit margin; offsets include the Kumamoto plant shutdown from July 28 to August 7 with partial restart on August 8, Vietnam's restrictions on combustion motorcycles, and moves in the Indian rupee and Brazilian real against the yen[4][29].

What remains unresolved is how much of the first-quarter margin is structural. If the record margin came mainly from year-on-year currency and tariff improvements, then a reversal in currency would pull the margin back to the fiscal 2026 level of about 18% even if volume keeps growing. The second-quarter 6-K again gives only cumulative first-half figures, so the quarter has to be derived by subtraction.

Next, watch whether the second-quarter motorcycle margin stays at or above 17% and the first-half margin approaches 19.5%, whether group volume is at least 5,300 thousand and the 22.8 million full-year guidance is raised, and whether the Kumamoto plant is fully back and Vietnam's rules begin to affect volume. If slower demand in India or Brazil and wider Vietnamese restrictions push volume below the guidance's quarterly average, or a currency reversal pulls the margin below the fiscal 2026 level, the view that the motorcycle margin has structurally stepped up would weaken.

Risks and Falsifiers

A currency reversal is the most direct risk to full-year guidance, because part of the first quarter's profit beat came from a weak yen. Between May and August Honda moved its rate assumption from ¥145 to ¥155 per dollar, raising operating profit guidance by ¥150 billion and the EV loss allowance by ¥20 billion[5][6]. A stronger yen would cut the yen value of North American auto and finance profit but reduce the dollar-denominated supplier compensation[29]; if the first-half average rate is no stronger than ¥155 and management holds or raises full-year operating profit guidance, the risk has not materialized.

Credit and residual-value risk in the finance arm can pass through North American auto loans and leases to group profit. Honda's finance business is mainly North American retail lending and operating leases; its fiscal 2026 operating profit fell 12.7% to ¥275.5 billion, which the 20-F attributed to higher expenses, with SG&A up 51.8%[26], and first-quarter Financial Services operating profit was ¥105.8 billion, about 19.9% of the group total[3][8]. Changes in U.S. auto loan rates and used-car prices would affect this profit; if second-quarter finance profit stays near the first-quarter level and management flags no rise in credit losses, the concern is falsified.

Rising North American incentives and costs could leave the auto recovery dependent on the currency tailwind. North American revenue of ¥9,213.4 billion is about two-thirds of automobile external revenue[12]; on first-quarter Automobile segment revenue of ¥3,879.2 billion, each 1-point drop in margin removes about ¥39 billion of quarterly profit[3]. Management has warned that tougher North American competition could require higher-than-planned incentives and that memory-chip prices are a risk[29]; if the second-quarter auto margin excluding EV losses is at least 5.0% and the profit bridge shows price and cost as a positive contributor, this risk is falsified.

The EV retreat could cost more than the allowance or be recognized later, which would hit reported profit directly. The ¥520 billion allowance for fiscal 2027 equals about 44% of the ¥1,170 billion adjusted operating profit guidance[6]; based on the ¥20 billion increase that came with the move from ¥145 to ¥155 in August, each ¥5 of yen weakness adds roughly ¥10 billion of losses. Honda cannot yet reliably estimate the amount or timing of supplier compensation[27][16]; if the full-year amount booked matches ¥520 billion (adjusted only for currency) and fiscal 2028 brings no new EV-related losses, this risk is falsified.

Emerging-market demand and regulatory changes could weaken the group's largest profit source. Motorcycles earned ¥731.9 billion in fiscal 2026, with about 85% of units sold in Asia[20][11]; on first-quarter motorcycle revenue of ¥1,141.1 billion, each 1-point drop in margin removes about ¥11 billion of quarterly profit[3]. Management has flagged Vietnam's restrictions and the Middle East as near-term risks[9]; if second-quarter group volume is at least 5,700 thousand and the margin is at least 19%, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

• Auto recovery: the Automobile margin excluding EV losses was 5.0% on ¥192.1 billion in the first quarter. A second-quarter margin of at least 3.5% and a first-half margin near 4.5% would confirm the recovery; a drop below 3.5% would falsify it.
• Auto volume: group automobile sales were 786 thousand in the first quarter against 3.39 million full-year guidance. Holding 750 thousand with guidance intact would confirm; a guidance cut would falsify.
• China: joint-venture retail sales were just over 80 thousand in the first quarter, down about 50%. A sequential recovery after the GAC Honda extension would be an improvement; a further decline would be a deterioration.
• EV supplier compensation: zero was booked in the first quarter against a ¥520 billion allowance. Bookings within the allowance, with changes only from currency, would confirm; a higher base or a slip into fiscal 2028 would falsify.
• Adjusted operating profit: ¥530.8 billion in the first quarter and ¥1,170 billion guided for the year. A first-half total of at least ¥744 billion would confirm.
• Motorcycle margin: about 20.5% in the first quarter versus about 18.2% for fiscal 2026. A second-quarter margin of at least 17% and a first-half margin near 19.5% would confirm; a fall below 18% would falsify.
• Motorcycle volume: 5,663 thousand in the first quarter against 22.8 million full-year guidance. At least 5,300 thousand would confirm; volume below the guidance's quarterly average would be a deterioration.

Conclusion

Honda's current earnings structure comes down to this: motorcycles and finance make money, autos are recovering, and the bill for the EV retreat has not been settled. The group posted an operating loss of ¥414.3 billion in fiscal 2026, driven mainly by about ¥1,453.7 billion of EV-related losses and tariffs[18][19]; fiscal 2027 first-quarter operating profit returned to ¥530.8 billion, including ¥234.0 billion from motorcycles, ¥192.1 billion from autos and ¥105.8 billion from finance[3]. The central open question is how much of the 5.0% auto margin comes from North American hybrid demand and mix versus the ¥155 exchange-rate assumption and lower-than-expected raw material costs, and when, and at what size, the ¥520 billion of supplier compensation will land on reported profit[6][9].

Since the latest results, the available coverage has consisted mostly of rating roundups, news rewrites and sales reports, with no outside interpretation carrying a substantive argument that could be cited on its own, so outside views cannot be set against the three debates above. The only reference point is the analyst figures compiled by Drillr: average full-year EBIT of ¥898.8 billion and a fourth-quarter EBIT loss of ¥141.9 billion[7], which imply an assumption that EV losses fall mainly in the second half, but these are aggregated numbers and cannot stand in for a reasoned outside judgment.

If the second-quarter auto margin stays near 5% without further yen weakness, the profit bridge shows price and cost as a positive contributor, EV losses begin to be booked at the allowance with the base unchanged, and the motorcycle margin holds above 18%, the view that Honda's profit recovery has an operating foundation and that the EV retreat cost is capped would strengthen materially. Conversely, if the auto margin falls below 3.5% as incentives rise, the EV compensation base is raised or pushed into the next fiscal year, or the motorcycle margin slips below 18% while volume grows, the first-quarter peak owed more to currency and other external factors, and the current understanding would need to be revised down.

Sources

[1] HMC earnings calendar updated 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-05 · Drillr earnings calendar

[2] HMC 6-K filed 2026-08-05 Q1 FY2027 results · 2026-08-05 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526333722/d371554d6k.htm

[3] HMC 6-K filed 2026-08-05 Q1 FY2027 segment table · 2026-08-05 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526333722/d371554d6k.htm

[4] HMC Q1 FY2027 earnings call 2026-08-05 management highlights · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[5] HMC 6-K filed 2026-08-05 FY2027 forecast revision · 2026-08-05 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526333722/d371554d6k.htm

[6] HMC Q1 FY2027 earnings call 2026-08-05 guidance · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] Drillr analyst estimates HMC Q2 FY2027 retrieved 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-05 · Drillr 分析师预测汇总 · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] HMC Q1 FY2027 earnings call 2026-08-05 segment performance · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] HMC Q1 FY2027 earnings call 2026-08-05 Q&A · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[11] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 marketing and distribution · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[12] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 automobile units and regional revenue · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[13] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 motorcycle Asia · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[14] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 China joint ventures · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[15] HMC 6-K filed 2026-07-20 GAC Honda joint venture extension · 2026-07-20 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526308263/d131003d6k.htm

[16] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 supplier subsequent event · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[17] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 strategy and capital allocation · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[18] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 consolidated results · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[19] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 EV-related losses · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[20] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 motorcycle results · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[21] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 automobile results · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[22] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 cash flows · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[23] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 EV-related provisions · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[24] HMC 6-K filed 2026-08-05 Q1 FY2027 cash flows · 2026-08-05 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526333722/d371554d6k.htm

[25] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 contribution margin by vehicle category · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[26] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 financial services results · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[27] HMC 6-K filed 2026-08-05 EV supplier payments contingency · 2026-08-05 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526333722/d371554d6k.htm

[28] HMC 20-F filed 2026-06-18 North America automobiles · 2026-06-18 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715153/000119312526274991/d116494d20f.htm

[29] HMC Q1 FY2027 earnings call 2026-08-05 risks · 2026-08-05 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private