[SE] Sea: Q3 2026 Earnings Test Whether Shopee Profit Can Catch Up With Revenue

Sea Limited runs three businesses: the Shopee e-commerce marketplace, the Monee digital financial services arm and the Garena games unit[1]. According to the earnings calendar, Sea will report results for the third quarter 2026, the three months ended September 30, 2026, on 2026-11-10[2]. In the latest disclosed quarter, the second quarter of 2026, consolidated revenue rose 48.1% year on year to $7.788 billion, operating income rose 33.3% to $650.3 million, net income rose only 10.6% to $458.1 million and diluted earnings per share were $0.70[3]. In the same quarter Shopee GMV reached $38.3 billion, up 28.4%, and Monee's consumer and SME loan book climbed to $11.1 billion[4]. Sea does not give quarterly guidance. On the August 11 call, management reaffirmed its goal of around 25% Shopee GMV growth for the full year while flagging weaker currencies in many markets and a higher second-half base[5], and in the second-quarter release it said it was optimistic that Shopee would reach $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the full year[6]. On the first-quarter call in May, management also said it was confident of delivering strong year-on-year bookings growth for Garena for the full year[7]. Analyst estimates compiled by Drillr on 2026-11-05 put third-quarter consensus revenue at $8.075 billion (six analysts, range $8.017 billion to $8.133 billion), earnings per share at $0.94 (four analysts, on a basis close to the company's adjusted measure rather than the $0.70 GAAP diluted figure for the second quarter) and EBITDA at $978 million; full-year 2026 revenue consensus is $31.583 billion (17 analysts)[8].

Three things matter most in this Sea Q3 2026 earnings report. The first is whether Shopee's profit can move above its second-quarter level: Shopee revenue grew 48.2% in the second quarter, yet adjusted EBITDA rose only 12.2% to $255.4 million[4], and the $1 billion full-year goal requires an average of roughly $261 million a quarter in the second half, which makes the third quarter the first test of whether better monetization turns into profit. The second is whether Monee's provisions and customer-acquisition spending stop outgrowing its revenue: consolidated credit-loss provisions rose 71.5% in the second quarter[3], Monee's sales and marketing expenses rose 139.8%[9] and Monee's adjusted EBITDA grew only 12.8%[4], while in October the company said Monee is approaching the point where it could list on its own[10], which puts more weight on the quality of its profit. The third is whether Garena can keep growing against last year's high base: second-quarter bookings grew 15.5% and paying users reached 68.1 million[11], while the prior-year third-quarter bookings disclosed in the company's third-quarter 2025 release were as high as $840.7 million; in addition, starting with the third quarter the company is removing the effect of changes in Garena deferred revenue from adjusted EBITDA[11], so the reading will no longer be comparable with the past.

Company Background and Business Structure

Sea started out in games, went through its start-up phase between 2009 and its 2017 listing, and has now been public for nine years[10]. In an October 2026 internal letter, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Forrest Li[6] compared the most recent quarter with the quarter of the listing: Garena's quarterly active users grew from 69 million to 666 million, Shopee's quarterly GMV grew from $1.1 billion to $38.3 billion and the company's quarterly revenue grew from $94 million to $7.8 billion, with all three businesses at scale and profitable[10]. The same letter said Monee is approaching the point where it could list on its own, and announced that Sea will offer its in-house cloud platform, built over more than ten years and rebuilt over the past two years by around 500 employees, to outside customers as an AI-first enterprise service called Sea Cloud[10].

Shopee is the company's largest business. Sea describes it as the largest e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia and Taiwan and a leading platform in Brazil, monetized mainly through paid advertising for sellers, transaction-based fees and value-added services such as logistics, alongside a small amount of goods the company buys and sells directly[1]. In 2025 Shopee GMV was $127.4 billion, up 26.8%, on 13.9 billion orders with an average order value of about $9, and e-commerce service revenue as a share of GMV improved from 10.8% to 11.4%[12]. Shipping subsidies are netted directly against value-added services revenue, which is mostly logistics[4], so when Shopee spends more on subsidies, the first visible effect on the revenue line is a decline in value-added services revenue. In 2025 Shopee segment revenue was $16.565 billion and segment operating income was $581 million, with Shopee accounting for about 72% of group revenue[13].

Monee and Garena are the other two reporting segments, and both earn more operating income than Shopee. Monee offers consumer and SME credit, e-wallet, payment processing, banking, insurtech and wealth services[1], and its funding costs include interest on customer deposits in its banking business and other funding costs of its credit business[14]; in 2025 Monee revenue was $3.792 billion and segment operating income was $973 million[13]. Garena depends on a small number of games led by the self-developed Free Fire, which contributed a significant majority of digital entertainment revenue and profit, and a meaningful part of its reported revenue comes from previously deferred revenue[15]; its main costs are third-party payment channel fees and royalties paid to game developers and IP owners[14]. In 2025 Garena revenue was $2.409 billion and segment operating income was $1.184 billion, the highest of the three businesses[13].

Financial History and Current Position

Sea's revenue and profit expanded sharply in 2025, but credit costs grew even faster. Revenue rose 36.4% from $16.8 billion in 2024 to $22.9 billion in 2025[12]; operating income was $1.985 billion and net income was $1.611 billion[13]. Gross margin improved from 42.8% in 2024 to 44.7%, mainly because the higher-margin digital financial services business made up a larger share; over the same period the provision for credit losses rose 76.7% from $776.9 million to $1.4 billion, and loans receivable rose from $4.2 billion to $8.0 billion[14]. At the end of 2025 loans receivable, net of an $812.8 million allowance for credit losses, stood at $7.406 billion, and short-term investments were $6.413 billion[16].

Operating cash flow has risen for three straight years, but the cash consumed by credit expansion is recorded under investing activities. Net cash from operating activities grew from $2.080 billion in 2023 and $3.277 billion in 2024 to $5.025 billion in 2025; in 2025 net cash used in investing activities was $4.409 billion, including a $4.7 billion increase in loans receivable, $513.8 million of property and equipment purchases and about $12.6 billion invested mainly in time deposits and sovereign and corporate debt securities; financing activities brought in a net $1.623 billion, and cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash ended the year at $6.419 billion[17]. Looking only at operating cash flow therefore overstates the cash the company can freely deploy, because the funding needed for Monee's loan growth sits outside that line.

Revenue growth accelerated further in the first half of 2026, but net income growth lagged well behind. First-quarter revenue was $7.097 billion, up 46.6%, operating income was $593.0 million, up 29.9%, net income was $438.2 million, up only 6.7%, and diluted earnings per share were $0.67[18]. Second-quarter revenue was $7.788 billion, up 48.1%, and gross profit was $3.550 billion, up 47.3%, but sales and marketing expenses rose 64.5% to $1.660 billion and credit-loss provisions rose 71.5% to $555.2 million; operating income was $650.3 million, up 33.3%, income tax expense rose 74.0% to $250.6 million, so net income rose only 10.6%, and adjusted EBITDA was $917.2 million, also up 10.6%[3]. In the second quarter the company repurchased 4.7 million shares for $416.8 million under its $1.0 billion repurchase program[11]; the quarterly release does not include a cash flow statement, so quarterly cash consumption cannot be verified directly.

Operating Model

Consolidated revenue is the sum of three businesses with different drivers, and the quality of Shopee's revenue depends on the gap between monetization and subsidies. Shopee core marketplace revenue is roughly GMV multiplied by the take rate from commissions, transaction fees and advertising, while value-added services revenue is logistics and other service fees net of shipping subsidies; Monee revenue is roughly the average loan book multiplied by its yield; and Garena bookings equal GAAP revenue plus the change in deferred revenue, which approximates what players actually spend in the period[17]. In the second quarter of 2026 Shopee revenue was $5.6 billion, up 48.2%, including core marketplace revenue of $4.3 billion, up 65.6%, and value-added services revenue of $676.4 million, down 9.0%; Monee revenue was $1.4 billion, up 58.9%; and Garena bookings were $763.5 million against GAAP revenue of $746.6 million[4]. Changes in the take rate reach revenue in the same quarter, while Garena bookings are recognized as revenue over later periods under deferral rules.

Segment operating income equals revenue minus cost of revenue, sales and marketing, Monee's credit-loss provisions and other operating expenses, and consolidated operating income then deducts unallocated expenses, mainly share-based compensation. In 2025 segment operating income was $581 million for Shopee, $973 million for Monee and $1.184 billion for Garena; after $662 million of unallocated expenses, consolidated operating income was $1.985 billion[13]. In the second quarter of 2026 the three segments earned $160.3 million, $279.0 million and $404.2 million, other services lost $51.5 million, unallocated expenses were $141.7 million and consolidated operating income was $650.3 million[19]. Shopee's main costs are logistics, promotions and off-platform advertising, while Monee books provisions when a loan is made and earns interest over the following periods, so faster lending depresses profit first; a 74.0% rise in income tax also left net income growth (10.6%) behind operating income growth (33.3%)[3].

The key to the cash flow model is separating operating activity from credit deployment. Operating cash flow is roughly net income plus non-cash charges such as provisions, share-based compensation and depreciation, plus the increase in Garena deferred revenue, adjusted for working capital such as payables for logistics and marketing; growth in Monee lending is recorded as an investing outflow instead[17]. In 2025 higher deferred revenue from strong Garena bookings and higher income tax payable in line with profit growth both lifted operating cash flow[17]. As a result, when Monee lending accelerates, consolidated operating cash flow can keep rising even as the cash the group can actually deploy shrinks.

Industry and Competitive Position

Competition in Shopee's Southeast Asian and Brazilian markets remains intense, and the advantages the company emphasizes are price competitiveness and growth. The annual report says competition for market share in its e-commerce markets is particularly intense and that competition from social media and social-commerce platforms may increase[20]. In Brazil, management said in the second quarter that Shopee's growth was well above the market and that it remained more price competitive even after its main rival changed its take rate and free-shipping threshold[21]; management also acknowledged that further commission increases will come at a slower pace than before[22]. Sea does not disclose Shopee profit by region, so investment in Brazil cannot be measured separately from profit in Asian markets.

Monee's competitive advantage comes from Shopee's transaction data and traffic, but it holds no edge in licenses or regulation. The annual report lists its competitors as non-bank fintech companies, neobanks, credit unions, multi-finance companies and banks, and notes that some rivals can obtain licenses the company cannot, such as for taking deposits[23]. In the first quarter of 2026 the company obtained a new financial license in Brazil that broadens the financial services it can offer there; at that time SPayLater penetration on Shopee in Brazil was around 10% of GMV, well below its more mature markets[24].

Garena's position rests on a long-running game. Free Fire is in its ninth year and still draws more than 100 million average daily active users[25]; in 2025 average quarterly active users were 657.7 million, up 5.7%, and average quarterly paying users were 62.6 million, up 23.9%[12]. Arena of Valor, in its tenth year, set a record for quarterly bookings in the first quarter of 2026[7], but the annual report also warns that Free Fire contributed a significant majority of digital entertainment revenue and profit[15]. The available material contains no comparable figures for peer game companies, so Garena's share shifts against rivals cannot be quantified.

Core Debates

Shopee's ad and commission revenue is growing far faster than GMV, yet its EBITDA rose only 12%. To reach the $1 billion full-year target, can third-quarter EBITDA move above the second quarter's level?

This debate matters because Shopee generates about 72% of group revenue yet is the least certain part of consolidated profit growth. In 2025 Shopee segment revenue of $16.565 billion was about 72% of group revenue of $22.938 billion[13]. In the first quarter the company's goal was still full-year adjusted EBITDA no lower than in 2025[26], and by the second quarter it had moved to saying it was optimistic about reaching $1 billion[6]; Shopee adjusted EBITDA was $223.2 million in the first quarter and $255.4 million in the second[18][3], a first-half total of $478.6 million, so the second half needs an average of roughly $261 million a quarter. On the second-quarter call management stated plainly that second-half EBITDA would be higher in absolute terms than the first half[21].

The current evidence shows monetization rising quickly, but costs rising almost as fast. GMV grew 30.2% in the first quarter[26] and 28.4% in the second, while core marketplace revenue grew 61.0% and 65.6% in those two quarters, reaching $4.3 billion in the second[4]. Management said second-quarter ad revenue grew more than 70%, the ad take rate improved by more than 90 basis points year on year, average monthly new active buyers grew more than 35% and VIP membership exceeded 15 million[27]. Yet in the second quarter value-added services revenue fell 9.0% because of shipping-subsidy net-offs, Shopee cost of revenue rose 51.9% and Shopee sales and marketing expenses rose 56.6% to $1.258 billion[9].

An alternative reading is that most of the monetization gain is being reinvested in subsidies and customer acquisition, leaving less room for profit improvement than revenue growth suggests. Management acknowledged that further commission increases will be slower[22] and pointed to weaker currencies and a higher GMV base in the second half[5]; if profit can only improve by cutting investment, GMV growth could fall below 25%. The financial transmission runs from commission increases and ad penetration, which push core marketplace revenue growth above GMV growth, minus shipping-subsidy net-offs against value-added services revenue, logistics costs and VIP, content and off-platform acquisition spending, down to Shopee adjusted EBITDA and consolidated operating income. The third-quarter comparison point is second-quarter EBITDA of $255.4 million ($227.7 million a year earlier)[3]; the prior-year third-quarter figures disclosed in the company's third-quarter 2025 release were EBITDA of $186.1 million, GMV of $32.2 billion, core marketplace revenue of $3.1 billion, value-added services revenue of $723.6 million and Shopee sales and marketing expenses of $894.7 million.

What remains unresolved is whether higher monetization can stay in profit without sacrificing GMV growth. In the third quarter, watch whether Shopee adjusted EBITDA is at least $261 million, whether GMV growth is at least 25%, whether core marketplace revenue growth stays above 50%, whether the decline in value-added services revenue narrows and whether Shopee sales and marketing growth falls back below revenue growth. If third-quarter Shopee adjusted EBITDA comes in below the second quarter's $255.4 million, or GMV growth falls below 25%, the current understanding of the full-year profit path would be weakened.

Monee's loan book grew about 60% in a year, but its EBITDA rose only 13%. Can provisions and acquisition spending stop outgrowing revenue in the third quarter?

This debate matters because Monee is one of the group's main profit sources and is also the business the company is considering listing separately. In 2025 Monee segment operating income of $973 million was about 36% of the $2.738 billion combined operating income of Shopee, Monee and Garena[13]. In October the company said Monee is approaching the point where it could list on its own[10], so whether it can keep growing profit while expanding fast affects both consolidated profit and the basis for that capital decision.

The current evidence shows stable asset quality, but profit growing far more slowly than the loan book. At the end of June consumer and SME loans outstanding were $11.1 billion, up 62.5% year on year, with $10.0 billion on-book and $1.1 billion off-book, and the 90-day non-performing loan ratio was 1.0%, stable quarter on quarter[4]; at the end of March the loan book was $9.9 billion and the ratio was 1.1%[26]. In the first quarter Brazil became the fourth market with a loan book above $1 billion, growing more than 250% year on year[24]; in the second quarter the company broadened one-month interest-free SPayLater loans and promotional rates for first-time cash loans, adding about 5.3 million first-time borrowers and lifting active credit users above 40 million[28]. Management attributed the rise in provisions to a higher share of off-Shopee SPayLater and Brazil loans[29], and said non-performing ratios are stable within each country, product and segment and that new lending still adds positive absolute profit[22].

An alternative reading is that the non-performing ratio is being diluted by a fast-growing balance, that new borrowers drawn in by interest-free SPayLater and first-loan promotions have not yet gone through a full repayment cycle, and that provisions consistently growing faster than revenue may signal a structural rise in credit costs. Monee adjusted EBITDA was $288.0 million in the second quarter, up 12.8%, and $275.2 million in the first, up 14.0%[18]; over the same period consolidated credit-loss provisions rose 71.5% to $555.2 million[3] and Monee sales and marketing expenses rose 139.8% to $293.9 million[9], both faster than 58.9% revenue growth. The financial transmission runs from SPayLater on and off Shopee, cash loans and Brazil lending to loan book growth, which lifts interest income even as yield falls with the country, product and customer mix, then deducts funding costs, lifetime provisions booked when loans are made and interest-free and promotional acquisition costs to arrive at Monee adjusted EBITDA. The prior-year figures disclosed in the company's third-quarter 2025 release were EBITDA of $258.3 million, a September-end loan book of $7.9 billion, a non-performing ratio of 1.1%, consolidated credit-loss provisions of $373.8 million and Monee sales and marketing expenses of $158.0 million.

What remains unresolved is whether credit performance in new customer groups and new markets deteriorates after a full cycle. In the third quarter, watch whether Monee adjusted EBITDA growth is at least 12.8%, whether provision growth falls below Monee revenue growth, whether the 90-day non-performing ratio stays at or below 1.1%, whether Monee sales and marketing growth falls below 100% and whether the September-end loan book reaches $11.85 billion. If the 90-day non-performing ratio rises above 1.2%, or Monee adjusted EBITDA declines quarter on quarter, the current understanding that expansion is still earning a positive return would be falsified.

Garena's bookings jumped about 50% in last year's third quarter, its best quarter in four years. Can Free Fire keep growing against that base?

This debate matters because Garena is the group's most profitable business yet depends heavily on one game, and the third quarter carries the toughest year-on-year base. In 2025 Garena segment operating income of $1.184 billion exceeded both Shopee and Monee[13]; Free Fire contributed a significant majority of digital entertainment revenue and profit[15]. The prior-year third-quarter bookings disclosed in the company's third-quarter 2025 release were $840.7 million, up 51.1%; in addition, from the third quarter Garena adjusted EBITDA will no longer include the effect of changes in deferred revenue[11], so the figure will not be comparable with the past.

The current evidence shows growth continuing, but driven mainly by paying penetration rather than user expansion. First-quarter 2026 bookings were $931.4 million, up 20.1%, with 666.5 million quarterly active users against 661.8 million a year earlier[26]; second-quarter bookings were $763.5 million, up 15.5%[4], with 666.3 million quarterly active users against 664.8 million a year earlier, 68.1 million paying users, up 10.2%, and a paying ratio that rose from 9.3% to 10.2%[11]. Free Fire still draws more than 100 million daily active users[25], and in the first quarter management said it was confident of strong year-on-year bookings growth for the full year[7]; in the second quarter the company announced two new games, Palworld Online and Monster Hunter Outlanders[6], with the latter targeted to launch this year[30].

An alternative reading is that the 2025 third-quarter peak came from large collaborations that are hard to repeat, that active users have been roughly flat for a year and that growth depends on paying penetration; if penetration has peaked, third-quarter bookings could decline year on year while GAAP revenue stays temporarily elevated as deferred revenue is released. The change in Garena deferred revenue was only $16.9 million in the second quarter against $102.2 million a year earlier[3], showing that the gap between bookings and revenue has already narrowed sharply. The financial transmission runs from Free Fire updates and collaborations to paying users and spending per user, which determine bookings; bookings are recognized as revenue under deferral rules, and channel and royalty costs and marketing are then deducted to arrive at Garena segment operating income. Second-quarter Garena segment operating income was $404.2 million against $275.5 million a year earlier[19]; the prior-year third-quarter segment operating income disclosed in the company's third-quarter 2025 release was $309.8 million.

What remains unresolved is how much further paying penetration can rise and when the new games start to contribute. In the third quarter, watch whether bookings exceed $840.7 million, whether paying users grow year on year, whether segment operating income exceeds $310 million and whether Monster Hunter Outlanders is confirmed for launch this year. If third-quarter bookings decline year on year, or paying users decline year on year, the current understanding that Garena's growth is durable would be weakened.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is the uncertainty created by capital allocation and new businesses. In his October internal letter Forrest Li said Monee is approaching the point where it could list on its own and announced Sea Cloud, an AI-first enterprise cloud service for outside customers, but neither came with a timetable or an investment size[10]; second-quarter adjusted EBITDA for other services had already widened from −$13.8 million a year earlier to −$46.2 million[3], while the company was carrying out a $1.0 billion share repurchase program[11]. This risk bears on consolidated adjusted EBITDA and operating income, on the share of Monee's profit the group would keep after a listing and on repurchase capacity. If the third-quarter report shows no further widening of other services losses and discloses the size of the Sea Cloud investment and the structure of a Monee listing, this risk would ease materially.

The second risk is regulation. The annual report discloses that Shopee has been investigated by competition authorities over its use of logistics services from an affiliated business[31]; Monee's credit and digital banking businesses are subject to financial regulation in each country, and some competitors can obtain licenses the company cannot[23]. This risk bears on Shopee's value-added services revenue and logistics arrangements, and on Monee's product range and funding sources. If the third-quarter report and call disclose no new investigations, fines or business restrictions, the current understanding still holds.

The third risk is competition and currency. E-commerce competition in Southeast Asia and Brazil remains intense[20], the main rival in Brazil has changed its take rate and free-shipping threshold[21], and weaker currencies against the US dollar in many markets reduce GMV and revenue measured in dollars[5]. This risk directly affects Shopee's full-year goal of about $1 billion in EBITDA and its GMV growth goal of about 25%. If third-quarter GMV growth is at least 25% and Shopee adjusted EBITDA rises quarter on quarter, this risk has not materialized.

The fourth risk is the credit cycle. The shares of off-Shopee SPayLater, high-rate, high-risk markets such as Brazil and first-loan promotional customers are all rising[29], and if the macro backdrop weakens or new customers perform worse than modeled, provisions would rise further. This risk bears on Monee segment operating income ($973 million in 2025)[13] and on the $812.8 million allowance for credit losses on on-book loans at the end of 2025[16]. If the third-quarter 90-day non-performing ratio is no higher than 1.1% and provision growth is no higher than revenue growth, this risk has not materialized.

The fifth risk is dependence on a single game. Free Fire contributes a significant majority of digital entertainment revenue and profit, so fading popularity or content-quality problems would hit Garena directly[15]; the game is in its ninth year[25], and the new Monster Hunter Outlanders title is still awaiting launch[30]. This risk bears on Garena's 2025 segment operating income of $1.184 billion. If third-quarter bookings and paying users both grow year on year and the new game launches on schedule, this risk would ease.

What to Watch Next

• Shopee profit ramp: whether third-quarter Shopee adjusted EBITDA reaches about $261 million against $255.4 million in the second quarter; a figure below $255.4 million would weaken the path to $1 billion for the year.
• Shopee growth: whether GMV growth stays at or above 25% against 28.4% ($38.3 billion) in the second quarter; growth below 25% would suggest profit is being bought by cutting investment.
• Shopee revenue mix: whether core marketplace revenue growth stays above 50% (second quarter: $4.3 billion, up 65.6%) and whether the decline in value-added services revenue (second quarter: $676.4 million, down 9.0%) narrows.
• Monee profit: whether Monee adjusted EBITDA growth is at least 12.8% against $288.0 million in the second quarter; a quarter-on-quarter decline would falsify the view that expansion is earning a positive return.
• Monee credit: whether the 90-day non-performing ratio stays at or below 1.1% (second quarter: 1.0%) and provision growth falls below revenue growth (second quarter: $555.2 million, up 71.5%); a ratio above 1.2% would falsify the current view.
• Monee scale and spending: whether the September-end loan book reaches $11.85 billion against $11.1 billion and whether sales and marketing growth falls below 100% against $293.9 million, up 139.8%.
• Garena base: whether bookings exceed $840.7 million and paying users grow year on year against $763.5 million and 68.1 million in the second quarter; a decline in either would weaken the case for durable growth.
• Garena profit and pipeline: whether segment operating income exceeds $310 million against $404.2 million in the second quarter, and whether Monster Hunter Outlanders is confirmed for launch this year.

Conclusion

Sea runs on three engines: Shopee trades higher monetization for rapid revenue growth, Monee trades loan growth for interest income, and Garena earns the highest profit from paying penetration in Free Fire. In the second quarter of 2026 consolidated revenue rose 48.1% while net income rose only 10.6%[3], and the gap came from Shopee's subsidy and acquisition spending, Monee's provisions and sales and marketing growing faster than revenue, and a sharp rise in income tax. The central unresolved relationship is how much of this high revenue growth turns into profit in the second half, above all whether Shopee can reach $1 billion in full-year adjusted EBITDA while keeping GMV growth around 25%[6], and whether Monee's profit can catch up with the expansion of its loan book.

Between the second-quarter release on 2026-08-11 and 2026-11-06, the material that could be found consisted mainly of share-price moves, October 20 news about a possible Monee listing and Sea Cloud, and a report that New Street adjusted its stance on October 26 without stating its reasons; no dated, authored commentary with independent reasoning could be verified, so no outside views are included here. That leaves the three debates over Shopee's profit ramp, Monee's credit costs and Garena's high base to be tested only against the company's own disclosures and management statements, with no independent third-party reading of the same figures.

The combination that would materially strengthen the current understanding is third-quarter Shopee adjusted EBITDA of at least about $261 million with GMV growth of at least 25%, Monee adjusted EBITDA growth of at least 12.8% with a 90-day non-performing ratio no higher than 1.1% and provision growth back below revenue growth, and Garena bookings above last year's $840.7 million with paying users still growing. Conversely, if Shopee profit falls below the second quarter's $255.4 million, Monee's non-performing ratio rises above 1.2% or its profit declines quarter on quarter, and Garena bookings and paying users fall year on year, the first half's rapid revenue growth would look more like a gain bought at the expense of margins than scale that can keep turning into profit.

Sources

[1] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · three businesses and monetization · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm

[2] SE earnings calendar updated 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-05 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] SE 6-K filed 2026-08-11 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 summary of financial results · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000119312526344596/d120948dex991.htm

[4] SE 6-K filed 2026-08-11 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 business highlights · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000119312526344596/d120948dex991.htm

[5] SE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 · GMV outlook, FX and second-half base · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[6] SE 6-K filed 2026-08-11 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 headline and management outlook · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000119312526344596/d120948dex991.htm

[7] SE Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-12 · Garena full-year bookings outlook · 2026-05-12 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] Drillr analyst estimates SE Q3 2026 retrieved 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-05 · Drillr 分析师预测汇总 · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] SE 6-K filed 2026-08-11 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 cost of revenue and sales and marketing by segment · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000119312526344596/d120948dex991.htm

[10] SE 6-K filed 2026-10-20 · Monee listing and Sea Cloud memo · 2026-10-20 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000119312526425639/d181814dex991.htm

[11] SE 6-K filed 2026-08-11 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 Garena metrics and EBITDA definition change · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000119312526344596/d120948dex991.htm

[12] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · 2025 revenue drivers · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm

[13] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · 2025 segment results · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm

[14] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · 2025 cost and expense drivers · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm

[15] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · Free Fire concentration · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm

[16] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · loans receivable and allowance · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm

[17] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · 2025 cash flows · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm

[18] SE 6-K filed 2026-05-12 (Q1 2026 earnings release) · Q1 summary of financial results · 2026-05-12 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000119312526219378/d78490dex991.htm

[19] SE 6-K filed 2026-08-11 (Q2 2026 earnings release) · Q2 segment operating income and adjusted EBITDA reconciliation · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000119312526344596/d120948dex991.htm

[20] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · e-commerce competition · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm

[21] SE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 · second-half Shopee EBITDA and Brazil competition · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[22] SE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 · take rate and Monee return mix · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[23] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · fintech competition · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm

[24] SE Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-12 · Brazil lending and NPL · 2026-05-12 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[25] SE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 · Free Fire and new titles · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[26] SE 6-K filed 2026-05-12 (Q1 2026 earnings release) · 2026 Shopee guidance and Q1 highlights · 2026-05-12 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000119312526219378/d78490dex991.htm

[27] SE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 · Shopee buyers, ads and VIP · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[28] SE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 · Monee credit users and SPayLater promotion · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[29] SE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 · provision increase driven by loan mix · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[30] SE Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 · Monster Hunter Outlanders launch timing · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[31] SE 20-F filed 2026-04-17 · competition authority scrutiny · 2026-04-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1703399/000114036126015366/ef20067274_20f.htm