ING Group 2025-26: ROE 14% Target, EUR 14.9B NII Guide

FY25 net income €6.33B; diluted EPS €2.12 (+29%). Q4 mobile primary customers +350K, retail loan growth €10.1B Q4. Wholesale lending +€10.3B Q4. Core deposits +€38.1B FY25. Customer base +7M YoY to 178M. FY26 guide: total income ~€24B, fees +5-10%, opex €12.6-12.8B, ROE 14%, RoTE >14%, CET1 ~13%.

Key takeaways

• Customer growth + lending acceleration are the FY25 narrative. Retail Banking added 350K+ mobile primary customers in Q4 alone. Net core lending growth doubled vs prior year — +€10.1B retail Q4 + €10.3B wholesale Q4. Loan growth absolute volume 8.3% YoY since start of year.
• Fee income inflection. Fee revenue benefitted from customer growth + cross-sell. Mgmt FY26 guides fee income +5-10% growth — a step up from the historical mid-single-digit cadence reflecting digital + advisory + insurance bancassurance penetration.
• Net interest income guide €14.9B FY26. Margin expansion + balance sheet growth drives NII +volume. Cost/income target <50% in 2026 — operating leverage thesis intact.
• Capital framework: CET1 ~13%, ROE 14% target. Unchanged. Despite the lending growth, ING keeps capital ratios well above minimum, with consistent dividend + buyback cadence.
• 2027 framework: total income exceeds €25B. The two-year guide implies +2-3% income growth annually over FY26-27 with operating leverage compounding into RoTE.

Business

ING is a global Tier-1 bank with three business pillars + a wealth management franchise:

• Retail Banking (~50% of revenue): Mortgages + consumer + SME banking + payments + wealth across Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Poland, Spain, Italy, Australia. Mobile-first model — 350K+ Q4 mobile primary customer adds. Mortgages dominant in NL + DE + BE + AU; consumer + SME building elsewhere.
• Wholesale Banking (~40% of revenue): Corporate + institutional banking, lending, trade finance, sustainable finance, securities services. Q4 net core lending +€10.3B on lending + working capital demand. Long-cycle relationships with European corporates.
• Other / Insurance run-off (~10% of revenue): Legacy run-off + capital management activities.

Geographic concentration: Netherlands ~30% (mortgage-heavy + corporate banking) / Germany ~15-20% (Direct retail + wholesale) / Belgium ~10-15% (full-service) / Poland + Spain + Italy + AU + others ~30%.

Strategic identity: "Global digital-first universal bank" — using technology to scale customer acquisition + cross-sell across Europe rather than replicating physical branch networks. ING leads its peer group on digital primary customer additions.

FY25 financial performance

(Note: ING reports under IFRS in EUR; FY25 income decline reflects normalization of NII margin from 2023 peak + fee growth picking up the slack.)

The earnings print: total income held +1% to €23.0B as fee income +5-10% offset modest NII compression. EPS +29% to €2.12 from €1.65 — driven by buyback shrink (~5% share count YoY) + tax benefit. Customer base +7M YoY to 178M — the underlying strategic indicator. Capital return €7.6B FY25 (€3.82B div + €3.82B buyback) — consistent with prior years.

Capital allocation

• Capex: ~€250M FY25 (capital-light bank business model).
• Dividends: -€3.82B FY25, ~50% payout ratio target. Guidance for continued steady raise.
• Buybacks: -€3.82B FY25 — meaningful capital return, supported by CET1 above target.
• CET1: 13.4-13.5% range exit FY25, target ~13% — capital cushion above minimum allows continued buyback + dividend.
• M&A: No major deals; bolt-on tuck-ins continue (e.g., wealth management acquisitions).

FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-01-29)

The +5-10% fee income guide is the inflection — bancassurance cross-sell + payment transaction volume + wealth advisory all contributing. Combined with continued mortgage + corporate lending volume + NIM stability gives total income +5% YoY.

2027 framework: total income >€25B implies +1-2% additional growth in FY27. Both years assume continued capital return at ~50% payout + buyback discipline.

Key risks

• NIM compression: ECB rate path. If rates fall faster than expected, NII compresses. Mitigated by structural hedging.
• European credit cycle: A meaningful European recession would compress lending volumes + raise loan losses.
• Mortgage volume: Netherlands + Germany + Belgium housing markets sensitive to rate cycle. Origination volume swings affect fee income.
• Capital regulation (CRR3 / Basel): Final calibration of capital rules can affect required CET1 + buyback capacity.
• Geopolitical: European banking exposure to Russia (residual) + China + Middle East risks.
• Currency: ING reports in EUR; USD investors see translation effect. FX hedge management matters.

Bottom line

ING FY25 is the customer growth + lending acceleration year disguised as a flat income print. EPS +29%, customer base +7M to 178M, mobile primary customers compounding, CET1 13%+ supporting €7.6B capital return. FY26 guide is total income €24B + ROE 14% + cost/income <50% — a high-quality steady-state for a European Tier-1 bank. The thesis works as long as European lending continues to compound with disciplined capital return; the tail risks are NIM compression on a faster ECB path or a credit-cycle event.

Citations

• ING Group N.V. FY25 Annual Report (filed early 2026, Dutch AFM + SEC 20-F).
• ING Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-01-29 — customer base 178M (+7M YoY), Q4 mobile primary +350K, retail Q4 net core lending +€10.1B, wholesale +€10.3B, FY26 guide (total income ~€24B, NII ~€14.9B, fees +5-10%, opex €12.6-12.8B, ROE 14%, RoTE >14%, CET1 ~13%).
• 2027 framework: total income >€25B.
• Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital return).