[GM] General Motors: Q3 2026 earnings preview as second-half costs test the 8.6% margin

General Motors sells pickups, SUVs and crossovers in the United States through Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac and Buick, finances them through GM Financial, and operates in China through joint ventures it does not consolidate. The company will hold its earnings call on 2026-10-20 to report the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026[1], and this GM Q3 2026 earnings preview starts from what the second quarter disclosed. Q2 2026 revenue was $48.03 billion, up 1.9%[2]; EBIT-adjusted was $3.94 billion, up 29.8%; EPS-diluted-adjusted was $3.57, up 41.3%; net income attributable to stockholders was only $1.31 billion, down 31.1%, because the quarter absorbed $2.28 billion of EV strategic realignment charges; adjusted automotive free cash flow was $5.03 billion[3]. GM North America wholesaled 848,000 vehicles, flat year over year, on revenue of $39.9 billion and EBIT-adjusted of $3.45 billion, an 8.6% margin that was 2.5 percentage points higher than a year earlier[4]. The company guides only for the full year: after the second raise on July 21, 2026 EBIT-adjusted is guided at $14.0-16.0 billion, EPS-diluted-adjusted at $12.00-14.00 and net income attributable to stockholders at $8.4-9.8 billion[5], with adjusted automotive free cash flow of $9.5-11.5 billion and capital expenditures of $10.0-12.0 billion[6]. On the call, management also said full-year warranty expense should improve by $1.0-1.5 billion year over year and EV losses by $1.0-1.5 billion, while commodity, logistics and DRAM cost headwinds of $1.5-2.0 billion and onshoring investment of $1.0-1.5 billion are concentrated in the second half[7]. Analyst estimates compiled by Drillr put Q3 revenue at $48.74 billion (11 analysts), EBIT at $4.20 billion and EPS at $3.68 (12 analysts, range $3.30-3.89)[8]; the earnings-calendar entry carries the same $3.68 EPS and $48.74 billion revenue estimate[9]; for the full year the consensus is $13.52 of EPS on $185.68 billion of revenue[10].

Three things matter most in the Q3 report. The first is whether the North America margin holds above 8%: the 8.6% in Q2 came from $0.6 billion of favorable Price, $0.4 billion of favorable Cost and $0.2 billion of favorable Mix with no growth in wholesale volume[4], and management has said plainly that commodity, logistics and DRAM headwinds and onshoring spending are heavier in the second half than in the first[7], so whether the Price column in the 10-Q segment analysis stays positive and whether the Cost column turns unfavorable will show directly whether pricing discipline plus cost improvement is holding back the cost wall. The second is the warranty table: net warranty expense was $1.581 billion in Q2, $388 million less than a year earlier, and the first-half decline totaled $485 million[11], while management has placed most of the remaining part of the $1.0-1.5 billion full-year improvement in Q3[7], which makes this quarter-by-quarter comparable table the easiest promise in the report to confirm or refute. The third is the EV realignment cash bill and second-half cash flow: Q2 booked another $2.3 billion of charges, $1.6 billion of them with a cash impact, and the 10-Q says the material cash charges are largely recognized but additional charges are still expected this year[12]; first-half capital expenditures were only $3.4 billion against a $10.0-12.0 billion full-year guide, which implies $6.6-8.6 billion in the second half[6], so new cash charges, adjusted free cash flow and the capex cadence in Q3 will decide whether the $9.5 billion floor and the $3.5 billion of remaining buyback authorization are reliable.

Company Background and Business Structure

General Motors was founded in Detroit in 1908, went through bankruptcy in 2009 and relisted in 2010; Mary Barra is Chair and CEO and Paul Jacobson is CFO. In the United States it sells pickups, SUVs, crossovers and a small number of cars under Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac and Buick; in China it operates through joint ventures with SAIC, holding 50% of SAIC General Motors (SGM) and 44% of SAIC GM Wuling (SGMW), neither of which is consolidated, so only their equity income flows through[13]; it also builds and sells vehicles in South America, Korea and the Middle East. Over the past two years the company made two large retreats: in December 2024 it stopped funding Cruise's robotaxi business and refocused the autonomy team on driver assistance for personal vehicles[14]; from the second half of 2025 it began a strategic realignment of EV capacity and the supply chain, recording $7.9 billion of charges in GMNA in 2025, of which $3.2 billion were non-cash impairments and $4.7 billion were cash-related[15], followed by another $3.4 billion in the first half of 2026[12].

The company reports four segments: GM North America (GMNA), GM International (GMI, which includes equity income from the China joint ventures), Cruise and GM Financial, with Cruise essentially at zero from 2025. Vehicle revenue is recognized when a vehicle transfers to the dealer, so quarterly revenue follows wholesale volume rather than retail sales[16]. Wholesale volume in 2025 was 3,799,000 vehicles, of which GMNA accounted for 3,296,000, or 86.8%, and GMI for 503,000[17]; GMNA revenue was $154.3 billion, 92% of the $168.0 billion automotive total, GM Financial revenue was $17.1 billion, and the company total was $185.0 billion[18]. Customers split into retail and fleet, and fleet sales to daily rental companies are generally less profitable than retail; fleet was 17.7% of total vehicle sales in 2025[19] and rose to 22.3% in Q2 2026 from 17.8% a year earlier[20].

Profit is more concentrated than revenue. GMNA EBIT-adjusted was $10.45 billion in 2025 at a 6.8% margin[21], and GM Financial earned $2.80 billion before tax[22]; the annual report states plainly that the company currently earns its highest margins on full-size ICE SUVs and full-size ICE pickups and uses their cash to fund the next generation of ICE vehicles, EVs, driver assistance and software services[23], and management lists returning GMNA to its historical 8-10% margin range as quickly as possible as the top priority[24]. On the cost side, material is roughly two-thirds of automotive cost of sales, with the rest being labor, depreciation and amortization, engineering, freight, and warranty and recalls[25]; in 2025 tariffs were booked in material and freight cost and reduced EBIT-adjusted by $3.1 billion[26].

Software services and auto finance are two revenue lines that relate to wholesale volume only indirectly. OnStar, Super Cruise and connectivity are reported as "services and other" revenue, and the portion bundled with a vehicle sale goes first into contract liabilities and is then recognized over the service period: automotive contract liabilities were $9.1 billion at June 30, 2026, and $729 million was recognized in Q2, up 20% year over year[27], while GMNA "services and other" revenue was $1.229 billion in Q2[28]; Super Cruise allows hands-free driving on more than 600,000 miles of compatible roads in the United States and Canada[29]. GM Financial had Q2 revenue of $4.267 billion from finance charges and leasing, with costs made up of interest (average debt of $113.0 billion at a 5.5% effective rate), depreciation on leased vehicles and a $389 million provision for loan losses that rose 10%, and its EBT-adjusted was $605 million, down 14%[30].

Financial History and Current Position

On an annual view, revenue peaked at $187.4 billion in 2024 and slipped for the first time to $185.0 billion in 2025, down 1.3%: lower wholesale volume cost $7.9 billion, price and mix recovered $4.4 billion, and GM Financial added $1.2 billion[18]. Quarterly EBIT-adjusted in 2025 was $3.49 billion, $3.04 billion, $3.38 billion and $2.84 billion, a total of $12.75 billion[31]; GMNA EBIT-adjusted fell from $14.53 billion to $10.45 billion and its margin from 9.2% to 6.8%, with Cost items dragging by a combined $5.1 billion[21], including $3.0 billion more in material and freight and $1.3 billion more in warranty and recalls[25]. Net income attributable to stockholders was only $2.7 billion because of the $7.9 billion EV strategic realignment charge[15].

Cash remained strong in 2025. Net automotive cash provided by operating activities was $18.7 billion, capital expenditures were $9.2 billion and adjustments for management actions were $1.1 billion, giving adjusted automotive free cash flow of about $10.6 billion[32]; the company repurchased $6.0 billion of stock for the year (including a $2.0 billion accelerated repurchase) and paid $0.5 billion of dividends, and in January 2026 the board raised repurchase capacity back to $6.3 billion and the quarterly dividend to $0.18[33]; year-end automotive cash and marketable securities were $21.7 billion and total automotive liquidity was $35.7 billion[34]. The warranty liability deserves attention: net of supplier recoveries, the balance rose from $10.1 billion at the end of 2024 to $13.3 billion at the end of 2025, with adjustments to pre-existing warranties of $3.25 billion in a single year[35].

The profit recovery in the first half of 2026 came almost entirely from price and cost. First-half revenue was $91.65 billion, up 0.6%; EBIT-adjusted was $8.20 billion, up 25.6%, for an 8.9% margin; GMNA EBIT-adjusted was $7.11 billion at a 9.3% margin (7.4% a year earlier); and net income attributable to stockholders was $3.93 billion, down 16.0%[36]. The GMNA improvement came from $0.9 billion less warranty cost, $0.8 billion less EV inventory write-down, $0.4 billion less emissions cost and favorable pricing, partly offset by $0.8 billion less equity income from the Ultium Cells battery joint venture, $0.3 billion more engineering cost and $0.2 billion more material and freight cost[37]. In Q2 alone, revenue was $48.03 billion, up 1.9%[2]; EBIT-adjusted was $3.94 billion, up 29.8%, EPS-diluted-adjusted was $3.57 and net income attributable to stockholders was $1.31 billion[3]; GMNA wholesaled 848,000 vehicles against 849,000 a year earlier, with EBIT-adjusted of $3.45 billion and an 8.6% margin (6.1% a year earlier), and the variance analysis shows Price contributing $0.6 billion, Cost $0.4 billion and Mix $0.2 billion[4]. Among the other segments, GMI EBIT-adjusted was $190 million and China equity income was $83 million[38], the China joint ventures earned $591 million of net income in the first half while their wholesale volume fell from 975,000 to 865,000[39], and GM Financial EBT-adjusted was $605 million, down 14%[30].

First-half cash flow has to be read on two bases. Q2 adjusted automotive free cash flow was $5.03 billion ($2.83 billion a year earlier)[3] and the first-half figure was $6.30 billion ($3.64 billion a year earlier)[36]; but unadjusted net automotive operating cash flow was only $5.6 billion, $1.5 billion less than a year earlier, against $3.4 billion of capital expenditures and $4.1 billion of management-action adjustments, and that $4.1 billion is the cash paid for the EV realignment[40]. The company repurchased $2.0 billion of stock in Q2, 24.99 million shares at an average $80.35, leaving $3.5 billion of authorization at the end of June[41], first-half repurchases totaled $2.8 billion[40], and the quarterly dividend is $0.18[42]; automotive cash and marketable securities were $19.7 billion at June 30 with total automotive liquidity of $33.6 billion, and GM Financial paid $0.9 billion of dividends to the parent in the first half[43]. On July 21 the company raised full-year guidance for the second time this year[44]: EBIT-adjusted of $14.0-16.0 billion and EPS-diluted-adjusted of $12.00-14.00[5], adjusted automotive free cash flow of $9.5-11.5 billion and capital expenditures of $10.0-12.0 billion[6].

Operating Model

GM's revenue is roughly GMNA wholesale volume times revenue per vehicle, plus GMI wholesale volume times revenue per vehicle, plus services and other revenue, plus GM Financial revenue. Vehicle revenue is recognized when the vehicle transfers to the dealer, so quarterly revenue follows wholesale volume and production scheduling[16]; in Q2 GMNA wholesaled 848,000 vehicles for $39.9 billion of revenue, roughly $47,000 per vehicle[4]. Wholesale volume depends on three things: US industry sales (the company assumes about 16 million units for 2026)[7], GM's share (16.6% in Q2)[45] and the pace of dealer restocking (511,000 units and 55 days of supply at the end of Q2, inside the 50-60 day target range)[46]. Revenue per vehicle depends on price and mix: the 10-Q attributes Q2's favorable Price to lean dealer inventory and strong demand and its unfavorable revenue Mix to fewer crossovers and EVs[47], management says US incentive spending has stayed below the industry average for more than three years[46], and full-year North America pricing is expected to be up about 0.5% year over year[7]. Services and other revenue comes from OnStar, Super Cruise and connectivity subscriptions, with the bundled portion going into contract liabilities first and being recognized over the service period[27]; GM Financial's revenue tracks the balance and yield of its loan and lease portfolio and relates to wholesale volume only indirectly[30].

Operating profit is roughly GMNA EBIT-adjusted plus GMI (including China equity income) plus GM Financial EBT-adjusted, less corporate expense of about $0.3 billion a quarter[48]. GMNA EBIT-adjusted equals wholesale volume times variable profit per vehicle minus fixed cost: the annual report gives variable profit per vehicle of roughly 160% for trucks, 40% for crossovers and 60% for cars relative to a portfolio average of 100%[49], so on the same wholesale volume an extra ten thousand trucks is worth far more than an extra ten thousand crossovers, which is one reason the Q2 margin rose from 6.1% to 8.6% on flat volume; at the same time, the company has a high proportion of relatively fixed structural costs, so small changes in volume have a disproportionately large effect on profit[50]. Material is about two-thirds of cost of sales[25], tariffs are booked in material cost at $3.1 billion in 2025[26] and an estimated $2.5-3.5 billion in 2026[51]; commodity, logistics and DRAM headwinds are $1.5-2.0 billion for 2026 and heavier in the second half, warranty is guided to improve by $1.0-1.5 billion for the year, and EV losses by $1.0-1.5 billion[7]. EV losses enter cost through net realizable value inventory adjustments and Ultium Cells equity income: first-half inventory adjustments fell by $0.8 billion, but Ultium equity income also fell by $0.8 billion[37], and Ultium's equity income was insignificant in the first half of 2026 against $252 million in the first half of 2025, with a further $364 million impairment recorded in Q2[52]. The large item outside EBIT-adjusted is the EV strategic realignment charge, $7.9 billion in 2025[15] and $3.4 billion in the first half of 2026[12]; these charges do not enter EBIT-adjusted but reduce net income directly, and the full-year net income guide of $8.4-9.8 billion corresponds to $3.5 billion of adjustments[5]. GM Financial's pre-tax profit is set by net interest margin, lease residual values and credit losses, and it declined in Q2 because insurance operating expense and leased-vehicle depreciation rose[53].

Adjusted automotive free cash flow equals net automotive operating cash flow minus capital expenditures plus adjustments for management actions. In 2025 that was $18.7 billion minus $9.2 billion plus $1.1 billion, about $10.6 billion[32]; in the first half of 2026 it was $5.6 billion minus $3.4 billion plus $4.1 billion, or $6.3 billion, where the $4.1 billion adjustment is the cash paid for the EV realignment, meaning those payments consumed a third of the first half's real automotive operating cash flow[40]. Full-year guidance calls for adjusted free cash flow of $9.5-11.5 billion, automotive operating cash flow of $15.4-19.4 billion and capital expenditures of $10.0-12.0 billion[6], which implies second-half capital expenditures of $6.6-8.6 billion, more than double the first half, directed mainly at the next-generation full-size pickups launching in December, a new V8 engine and the onshoring program that lifts US capacity above 2 million units from 2027[46], with 2026 onshoring investment of $1.0-1.5 billion mostly in the second half[7]. The order of cash uses is capital expenditures, the dividend ($0.18 a quarter)[42] and repurchases ($2.8 billion in the first half, with $3.5 billion of authorization remaining)[41]. GM Financial's cash flow is separate from the automotive business, funded by debt issuance and securitization, and it pays dividends to the parent ($0.9 billion in the first half); at June 30, automotive cash and marketable securities were $19.7 billion, credit facilities were $13.9 billion and total automotive liquidity was $33.6 billion, down from $35.7 billion at the start of the year[43].

Industry and Competitive Position

In the United States, its most profitable market, GM holds the largest share: 2,853,000 vehicles and a 17.2% share in 2025, including a 33.0% share of trucks (which includes SUVs)[54]. On the Q2 call management said its full-size pickup share exceeds 42%, more than ten percentage points above the closest competitor, and that US incentive spending has been below the industry average for more than three years[46]. This structure, in which both share and profit rest on pickups and SUVs, is what GM has in common with Ford and Stellantis and what separates it from crossover- and hybrid-led rivals such as Toyota and Hyundai; the annual report acknowledges directly that its highest margins are currently on full-size ICE SUVs and pickups[23].

Recent share has not been stable. US industry sales in Q2 2026 were 4,310,000 units, roughly flat year over year, and GM sold 715,000, so its share fell to 16.6% from 17.4% a year earlier[45]; on the Q1 call management attributed the share decline to low dealer inventory rather than demand[55], and inventory was back to 511,000 units and 55 days of supply at the end of Q2[46]. In China, the joint ventures sold 1.88 million vehicles in 2025 for a 7.1% share, well below the 8.4% of 2023[54]; after restructuring they returned to profit in the first half of 2026 with $591 million of net income, but wholesale volume is still falling, at 865,000 in the first half against 975,000 a year earlier[39].

Tariffs have been the largest external variable since 2025. Tariffs reduced 2025 EBIT-adjusted by $3.1 billion, and at the annual filing the company estimated a $3.0-4.0 billion impact for 2026[26]; after the Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that IEEPA did not authorize tariffs, the company recorded a $0.5 billion favorable adjustment in Q1 and lowered its 2026 tariff estimate to $2.5-3.5 billion[51]. Daniel Sparks of The Motley Fool notes that the United States has announced tariffs on Canadian-built vehicles, parts and steel will rise from 25% to 50% effective January 1, 2027, while GM still builds Silverado pickups on two shifts in Oshawa[56]. In software services, UBS analyst Joseph Spak calls GM's digital capabilities an underappreciated opportunity, with OnStar serving more than 12 million customers[57]; in EVs, the company has shrunk capacity to match roughly 6% US industry penetration and expects EV volumes to be lower[58].

Core Debates

With heavier second-half costs and flat volume, can GM North America hold a margin above 8%?

GMNA supplies more than 80% of GM's revenue and profit, so its EBIT-adjusted margin is effectively the company's margin. In 2025 tariffs and warranty pushed it down to 6.8%[21], in the first half of 2026 it recovered to 9.3%[36], and in Q2 alone it was 8.6%: wholesale volume of 848,000 was flat, revenue was $39.9 billion, up 1.1%, EBIT-adjusted was $3.45 billion, and Price contributed $0.6 billion, Cost $0.4 billion and Mix $0.2 billion[4]. The $0.4 billion in the Cost column came from $0.5 billion less EV inventory adjustment and $0.5 billion less warranty cost, partly offset by $0.4 billion less Ultium equity income and $0.2 billion more engineering cost; Mix was favorable because full-size pickups rose while crossovers and EVs fell[37]. The Q1 GMNA margin was 10.1%[59], but that included a favorable adjustment of about $0.5 billion from the Supreme Court ruling that IEEPA tariffs were invalid[60], and the $0.2 billion of unfavorable Q1 material and freight cost already netted that $0.5 billion benefit[61], so the underlying figure was about 8.6%. The transmission runs like this: industry sales and share set dealer restocking demand and wholesale volume; inventory levels set incentive intensity and the Price column; the pickup-to-crossover ratio sets the Mix column; and tariffs, commodities, logistics, DRAM and onshoring spending enter material and freight cost, partly offset by warranty improvement and EV inventory adjustments, to form the Cost column.

There are two readings. The optimistic one: pricing discipline and pickup mix are structural, management says incentives have been below the industry average for more than three years and full-size pickup share exceeds 42%[46], and $0.5-1.0 billion of second-half warranty and EV-loss improvement is still to come[7], enough to absorb the cost headwinds and keep the margin above 8%. The cautious one: the 10-Q attributes the first half's pricing benefit to lean dealer inventory[47], inventory was back to 55 days at the end of Q2[46], share fell from 17.4% to 16.6%[45], and if Q3 requires incentives to buy share back the Price column turns negative; management said in July that commodity costs have stabilized at previously guided higher levels and that the guidance raise reflects only first-half outperformance with no assumption of commodity deflation[62], Q4 also carries launch costs for the new pickups and a volume headwind of about 35,000 units[63], and with the Cost column turning unfavorable the margin would return to around 7%, the 2025 level.

Q3 comes down to three numbers: whether the GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin is at least 8.0% and which direction it moved against Q3 2025; whether the Price column in the 10-Q segment analysis is still positive, whether any unfavorable Cost is held within $0.5 billion, and whether the unfavorable items are attributed to commodities or to incentives; and whether GMNA wholesale stays in the 830,000-880,000 range, US share stops falling and dealer inventory stays at 50-60 days[4]. The falsifier is a Q3 margin below 7.0% with the 10-Q attributing it to material and freight cost, which would mean the cost wall was not offset; or a Price column that turns negative and is attributed to higher incentives, which would mean the first-half pricing benefit was a temporary effect of lean inventory.

Management says most of the warranty improvement lands in Q3. Will the warranty table prove it?

Warranty was the second-largest item behind tariffs in GM's 2025 profit decline: warranty and recalls cost $1.3 billion more[25], and the year-end warranty liability net of supplier recoveries rose from $10.1 billion to $13.3 billion[35]. One of the reasons for the 2026 guidance raise is a $1.0-1.5 billion warranty improvement, of which $0.5 billion was realized in the first half, with management placing most of the remainder in Q3[7]. Q2 net warranty expense was $1.581 billion, $388 million below the $1.969 billion of a year earlier; within that, new warranties issued were $1.176 billion ($1.358 billion a year earlier) and "adjustments and other" were $601 million ($797 million a year earlier)[11]. Q1 net expense was $1.257 billion, $97 million below a year earlier[64], so the first-half decline totaled $485 million, consistent with management's statement that $0.5 billion had been realized; the 10-Q's GMNA variance analysis attributes $0.5 billion of favorable Cost in Q2 and $0.9 billion in the first half to warranty[37]. The transmission runs like this: recall and claims experience on older models sets adjustments to pre-existing warranties, wholesale volume times the accrual rate per vehicle sets new warranties issued, supplier recoveries net against both to form net warranty expense, which flows into automotive cost of sales and the GMNA Cost column, while the warranty liability balance determines cash payments over the coming years.

A second reading deserves to be set alongside. Half of the Q2 improvement came from lower new-warranty accruals ($182 million less) while GMNA wholesale was flat, which looks more like a lower accrual rate than a fix for legacy problems; and although "adjustments and other" fell year over year, $601 million is still nearly twice the $314 million of Q1, which says claims adjustments on older models are still coming through[11]. If Q3 net expense falls by more than $400 million year over year and mainly through "adjustments and other," the first reading holds; if the decline is assembled from lower new accruals, the quality of the improvement is in doubt.

Q3 has to show: whether the year-over-year decline in net warranty expense is at least $400 million; whether "adjustments and other" stays below $600 million and whether new-warranty accruals move with wholesale volume; and how much favorable variance the 10-Q GMNA analysis attributes to warranty, and whether the call keeps the full-year $1.0-1.5 billion improvement[7]. The falsifier is a year-over-year decline of less than $200 million or a sequential increase, which would mean "most in Q3" did not happen; or a new large recall that pushes "adjustments and other" back above $800 million.

Is the EV restructuring bill really paid, and can second-half cash flow carry capex that doubles?

GM's net income and cash flow were distorted by EV realignment charges in both 2025 and the first half of 2026. The company recorded $7.9 billion of charges in 2025 but paid out only $0.4 billion of cash that year, and the annual report already said 2026 would bring additional material cash and non-cash charges tied to supplier negotiations[15]. Q2 recorded $2.3 billion of charges: $1.3 billion for commercial negotiations with suppliers and joint venture partners, $1.1 billion of losses on supply agreements and $0.5 billion for compliance-related assets, net of $0.7 billion of cost-sharing recoveries, with $1.6 billion carrying a cash impact; the 10-Q states that the company believes it has largely completed recognizing material cash charges, but the same sentence says additional charges are expected within 2026[12]. Q1 recorded $1.1 billion, of which $1.0 billion was likewise supplier and joint venture negotiations[65], and the eight-quarter reconciliation shows that the $1.59 billion adjustment in Q3 2025 and $5.99 billion in Q4 2025 were the same realignment[31]. The first half paid out $4.1 billion in cash, all of it added back to adjusted free cash flow as management actions[40], so the $5.03 billion of Q2[3] and $6.30 billion of first-half[36] adjusted free cash flow look solid on the premise that no new cash bills arrive in the second half. The transmission runs like this: EV demand and policy drive supplier negotiations and charge recognition; cash payments depress GAAP automotive operating cash flow and are then added back; the pickup launch, the V8 engine and onshoring concentrate capital expenditures in the second half; and GMNA EBIT-adjusted plus depreciation minus working capital minus capital expenditures gives adjusted free cash flow, which sets the room for repurchases and dividends.

Two readings. In one, the bill is essentially paid, management also said on the call that the most material cash charges within the $10.9 billion recorded since the second half of 2025 are complete[63], unadjusted automotive operating cash flow recovers to more than $5 billion a quarter in the second half, and even with capital expenditures doubling from $3.4 billion in the first half to $6.6-8.6 billion in the second[6] there is still $3-5 billion of free cash flow, so the $2.0 billion quarterly repurchase pace of Q2[41] can continue. In the other, supplier negotiations are not finished, the $0.7 billion remaining balance of compliance-related assets could be impaired[12], another cash charge of $0.5 billion or more in Q3 would push the adjustment past $4.1 billion, and the $9.5 billion full-year floor would have to be met by deferring capital expenditures or slowing repurchases.

Q3 has to show: whether new cash-related EV realignment charges are no more than $0.2 billion and actual cash outflow for the quarter is close to zero; whether adjusted automotive free cash flow is at least $2.0 billion and unadjusted automotive operating cash flow is back above $4 billion a quarter; and whether capital expenditures land in the $2.5-4.5 billion range with the full-year $10.0-12.0 billion guide intact, and whether repurchases stay in the $1.0-2.0 billion range[6]. The falsifier is $0.5 billion or more of new cash-related realignment charges in Q3 that push full-year adjustments past $4.1 billion; or adjusted free cash flow below $1.0 billion, or a floor met by squeezing capital expenditures or slowing repurchases.

Can GM keep turning its $9.1 billion of software prepayments into revenue at a 20% clip each quarter?

Software services are only 3% of GM's revenue, but they are the one revenue source in the company with software-like margins and an official forward recognition schedule. Contract liabilities rose from $6.6 billion at the end of 2024 to $8.2 billion at the end of 2025, and $2.6 billion was recognized from them in 2025[66]; by June 30, 2026 the balance was $9.1 billion, Q2 recognition was $729 million against $606 million a year earlier, up 20%, first-half recognition was $1.5 billion against $1.2 billion, and the company's disclosed schedule calls for $1.5 billion in the second half of 2026, $2.1 billion in 2027, $1.5 billion in 2028 and $4.0 billion thereafter[27]. GMNA "services and other" revenue was $1.229 billion in Q2[28], and the 10-Q attributes GMNA's favorable Other revenue variance to higher software-enabled services and subscription revenue[47]. Management gave larger figures on the call: deferred digital revenue of $6.3 billion, up almost 50% year over year, 1 million new subscriptions expected in 2026 driving more than $3 billion of recognized annual revenue, and Super Cruise becoming standard on high-end Silverado and Sierra trims, adding an estimated 160,000 equipped vehicles in 2027[46], with a paid conversion rate of 30-40% after the trial period[62]. The transmission runs like this: new vehicle sales times the allocated price of bundled services plus standalone subscriptions build contract liabilities; they are recognized over the service period as GMNA "services and other" revenue; incremental cost is low, so almost all of it lands in GMNA EBIT-adjusted; and the scope of standard Super Cruise and renewal rates set the recognition schedule for future periods.

Two readings. In one, every new vehicle deposits money into this pool, the slope steepens once Super Cruise is standard, the 20% growth rate holds into 2027, and UBS's Spak sees the business as a recurring, less cyclical, higher-margin revenue stream that already represents close to one-fifth of GM's operating profit[57]. In the other, a considerable part of contract liabilities is extended warranty, maintenance and customer rewards rather than software[27], the schedule shows 2028 ($1.5 billion) below 2027 ($2.1 billion), meaning the recognition peak of the existing pool comes next year and new subscriptions must take over after that, and a 30-40% trial conversion rate means most Super Cruise users do not pay once the free period ends[62].

Q3 has to show: whether revenue recognized from contract liabilities is at least $750 million with year-over-year growth still around 20%; whether the contract liability balance rises above $9.4 billion and whether the 10-Q's updated recognition schedule moves up[27]; and whether the call reaffirms 1 million new subscriptions and the standard Super Cruise plan and discloses the paid conversion rate[46]. The falsifier is recognition below $700 million or growth falling under 10%, which would mean growth is slowing naturally; or a sequential decline in the contract liability balance, or a delay in the standard Super Cruise plan.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is further tariff escalation. The United States has announced that tariffs on Canadian-built vehicles, parts and steel will rise to 50% effective January 1, 2027, and GM still builds Silverado pickups on two shifts in Oshawa[56], while USMCA US-content rules are under negotiation and could add tariff cost if new rules are not negotiated favorably[63]. The exposure sits in material cost within EBIT-adjusted: $3.1 billion in 2025[26], guided at $2.5-3.5 billion for 2026, with the $0.5 billion IEEPA refund in Q1 being one-time[51], and the company points to lifting US capacity above 2 million units from 2027 as its way of reducing exposure[46]. The falsifying observation is a Q3 10-Q that keeps the $2.5-3.5 billion full-year tariff range and a call that does not quantify the 50% Canadian tariff as a new 2027 cost.

The second risk is declining GM Financial profit. Q2 EBT-adjusted was $605 million, down 14%, and the provision for loan losses was $389 million, up 10%[30], driven by higher insurance operating expense and claims and higher leased-vehicle depreciation, with the first-half depreciation increase coming mainly from EVs[53]. The exposure is GM Financial's $2.80 billion of 2025 EBT-adjusted, about 22% of company EBIT-adjusted, with a $1.21 billion provision for loan losses in 2025[22]; the annual report discloses that each 5% relative decrease in forecast recovery rates would add $0.1 billion to the allowance[67], and its dividend to the parent was $0.9 billion in the first half[43]. The falsifying observation is Q3 EBT-adjusted of at least $600 million, provision growth of no more than 10% year over year, and the full-year $2.5-3.0 billion guide maintained[58].

The third risk is that second-half cost headwinds arrive in full while pricing weakens. Management's full-year headwinds add up to $2.5-3.5 billion of tariffs[51], $1.5-2.0 billion of commodities, logistics and DRAM, and $1.0-1.5 billion of onshoring, with the latter two heavier in the second half[7]; if pricing weakens as dealer inventory rebuilds and share pressure mounts, the GMNA margin would fall back below the 7% level of 2025[21] and full-year EBIT-adjusted below the $14.0 billion floor. The exposure is GMNA's $39.9 billion of quarterly revenue, where each percentage point of margin is roughly $0.4 billion of EBIT-adjusted a quarter[4]. The falsifying observation is a Q3 GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin of at least 8.0%, a Price column that is not negative, and no cut to full-year guidance.

The fourth risk is that warranty experience deteriorates again. If recall and claims experience on older models (including the L87 engine and Takata airbags) worsens again, or the new pickup launch brings early quality problems, new-warranty accruals would rise and the 2026 warranty improvement would fall short of $1.0 billion. The exposure is the $1.3 billion of extra warranty and recall cost in 2025[25], the $13.3 billion year-end warranty liability balance[35] and the $2.838 billion of first-half net warranty expense[11]. The falsifying observation is a year-over-year decline in Q3 net warranty expense of at least $400 million with "adjustments and other" no higher than $600 million.

The fifth risk is that the EV realignment cash bill is not fully paid. If commercial negotiations with suppliers and battery joint venture partners drag into the second half and produce new cash settlements, if the $0.7 billion remaining balance of compliance-related assets is impaired again[12], and if second-half capital expenditures and onshoring spending double as planned, full-year adjusted free cash flow would fall below the $9.5 billion floor[6] and repurchases would have to slow. The exposure is the $11.3 billion of cumulative realignment charges since the second half of 2025, of which $7.2 billion is cash-related[15], the $4.1 billion already paid in the first half of 2026[40], and the remaining $3.5 billion of repurchase authorization[41]. The falsifying observation is no more than $0.2 billion of new cash-related realignment charges in Q3, adjusted automotive free cash flow of at least $2.0 billion, and full-year guidance maintained.

The sixth risk is that software services growth is overstated. The share of extended warranty and maintenance contracts inside contract liabilities is not disclosed, the schedule shows 2028 below 2027[27], and only 30-40% of Super Cruise trial users pay[62]; if new vehicle sales and subscription conversion weaken together, recognized revenue growth would fall from 20% to single digits and erode the highest-margin piece of the GMNA margin. The exposure is the $9.1 billion of contract liabilities and $729 million of Q2 recognition[27] and GMNA's $1.229 billion of "services and other" revenue[28]. The falsifying observation is Q3 recognition of at least $750 million, up at least 20% year over year, with a contract liability balance of at least $9.4 billion.

What to Watch Next

The four debates compress into a checklist whose baselines are Q2 2026 actuals, read against the full-year guidance the company gave on July 21[5][7].

• North America margin: GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin (baseline 8.6%), watching whether it is at least 8.0% and its direction against Q3 2025; below 7.0% and attributed to material and freight cost falsifies. Price and Cost columns in the variance analysis (baseline Price +$0.6 billion, Cost +$0.4 billion), watching whether Price stays positive, whether unfavorable Cost is held within $0.5 billion, and whether it is attributed to commodities or incentives; a negative Price column attributed to incentives falsifies. GMNA wholesale, US share and dealer inventory (baseline 848,000; 16.6%; 511,000 units and 55 days), watching for 830,000-880,000 wholesale, share stabilizing and inventory at 50-60 days; landing inside those ranges confirms.
• Warranty improvement: year-over-year change in net warranty expense (baseline $1.581 billion, down $388 million), watching for a decline of more than $400 million and whether it comes mainly from "adjustments and other" or from new accruals; a decline of less than $200 million or a sequential rise falsifies. "Adjustments and other" (baseline $601 million), watching whether it stays below $600 million; a return above $800 million falsifies. The full-year warranty improvement (baseline $1.0-1.5 billion), watching whether the call maintains it; a cut falsifies.
• Realignment cash and free cash flow: new cash-related realignment charges (baseline $1.6 billion in Q2; $4.1 billion paid in the first half), watching for no more than $0.2 billion and near-zero cash outflow; $0.5 billion or more of new charges falsifies. Adjusted automotive free cash flow and unadjusted operating cash flow (baseline $5.03 billion in Q2; $5.6 billion of first-half operating cash flow), watching for at least $2.0 billion and operating cash flow back above $4 billion a quarter; below $1.0 billion, or a floor met by squeezing capital expenditures or slowing repurchases, falsifies. Capital expenditures and repurchases (baseline $3.4 billion of first-half capex; $2.0 billion of Q2 repurchases), watching for $2.5-4.5 billion of capex and $1.0-2.0 billion of repurchases; an intact full-year capex range confirms.
• Software deferred revenue: revenue recognized from contract liabilities (baseline $729 million, up 20%), watching for at least $750 million with growth still around 20%; below $700 million or growth under 10% falsifies. Contract liability balance and recognition schedule (baseline $9.1 billion), watching for a rise above $9.4 billion and an upward revision to the schedule; a sequential decline falsifies. Subscriptions and standard Super Cruise (baseline 1 million new subscriptions in 2026; 30-40% trial conversion), watching whether the call reaffirms them and discloses the conversion rate; a delay to the standard plan falsifies.

Conclusion

GM's profit is an equation of GMNA wholesale volume times a pickup-weighted variable profit per vehicle, minus material, tariffs and warranty. In Q2 2026 it lifted the GMNA margin from 6.1% to 8.6% on flat volume through $0.6 billion of Price, $0.4 billion of Cost and $0.2 billion of Mix[4]; company EBIT-adjusted was $3.94 billion and adjusted automotive free cash flow $5.03 billion, but net income was pushed down to $1.31 billion by $2.28 billion of realignment charges[3]. Automotive cash and marketable securities were $19.7 billion at June 30 with total automotive liquidity of $33.6 billion[43], and contract liabilities stood at $9.1 billion with $729 million recognized per quarter and growing at 20%[27]. The unresolved core relationship is whether a margin built in the first half on pricing discipline and cost improvement can hold back the cost wall in Q3, now that management has said plainly that commodity, logistics and DRAM headwinds and onshoring spending are concentrated in the second half[7].

Two independent views published after the Q2 report touch these debates from different sides. On September 17, Peace Longe of TheStreet relayed the judgment of UBS analyst Joseph Spak: GM's digital capabilities are an underappreciated opportunity, OnStar's more than 12 million customers and Super Cruise form a recurring, less cyclical, higher-margin revenue stream that already represents close to one-fifth of operating profit, and he projects that revenue growing from $3.2 billion today to $9.6 billion by 2036; the same article also notes that only 30-40% of Super Cruise trial users convert to paid, and points to roughly $900 million of gross tariff cost in Q2 and the new pressure from a 50% Canadian tariff[57]. On August 26, Daniel Sparks of The Motley Fool reviewed the actual bill for the 2025 tariffs: GM initially forecast $4-5 billion, absorbed $3.1 billion of gross cost, and offset more than 40% of it through pricing discipline and manufacturing adjustments, which leads him to judge that if the 2027 Canadian round plays out the way 2025 did, GM's own forecast of the cost will again prove too high[56]. The two views do not conflict, but they weigh different things: Spak's optimism lands on the software deferred revenue debate, where the $3.2 billion is management's annual recognized-revenue figure and what the 10-Q lets a reader verify is the $729 million recognized from contract liabilities each quarter; Sparks's judgment lands on the cost wall and the tariff risk, and it supplies a counter-hypothesis, because if the Q3 Cost column is sharply unfavorable, the 2025 experience of an overestimated bill cannot simply be extended to 2027. Both are outside interpretations, and neither contains a quarterly earnings forecast.

What could materially change the current understanding next is a combination of observations. A Q3 GMNA margin of at least 8.0%, a positive Price column, unfavorable Cost held within $0.5 billion, and net warranty expense down more than $400 million year over year mainly through "adjustments and other" would materially strengthen the understanding that pricing discipline plus cost improvement can hold the cost wall; conversely, a margin below 7.0% attributed to material and freight and a Price column turning negative on incentives would materially weaken it. On the cash side, no more than $0.2 billion of new cash-related realignment charges, adjusted free cash flow of at least $2.0 billion, and capital expenditures of $2.5-4.5 billion with the full-year range intact would confirm that the bill is essentially paid; $0.5 billion or more of new cash charges, or a floor met by slowing repurchases, would overturn it. On the software side, recognition of at least $750 million, contract liabilities rising above $9.4 billion and a disclosed Super Cruise conversion rate would strengthen Spak's reading; recognition below $700 million or a sequential decline in the balance would say growth is slowing naturally.

Sources

[1] Drillr earnings calendar · GM earnings call scheduled 2026-10-20 (calendar last updated 2026-09-21); TheStreet 2026-09-17 also states GM reports third-quarter earnings on October 20, 2026 · 2026-09-21 · Drillr earnings calendar

[2] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 total net sales and revenue by segment · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[3] GM 8-K filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 results table · 2026-07-21 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000049/

[4] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 GMNA results table · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[5] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2026 full-year outlook · 2026-07-21 · General Motors · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[6] GM 8-K filed 2026-07-21 · 2026 adjusted automotive free cash flow guidance table · 2026-07-21 · General Motors · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000049/

[7] GM 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-21 · guidance section (Drillr summary) · 2026-07-21 · General Motors(Drillr 电话会摘要) · https://investor.gm.com/events-and-presentations

[8] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-09-21) · 3Q26 revenue, EBIT and EPS estimates · 2026-09-21 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] Drillr earning_call_calendar (updated 2026-09-21) · GM 2026-10-20 call with EPS and revenue estimates · 2026-09-21 · Drillr earning_call_calendar · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-09-21) · FY2026 revenue and EPS estimates · 2026-09-21 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[11] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 warranty expense table · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[12] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 EV strategic realignment charges and cash · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[13] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · China joint venture ownership · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[14] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · Cruise refocus on personal autonomy · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[15] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · EV strategic realignment charges (Note 18) · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[16] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · revenue recognition for vehicles and services · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[17] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · FY2025 wholesale vehicle sales by segment · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[18] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · FY2025 total net sales and revenue by segment · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[19] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · FY2025 fleet sales table · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[20] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 fleet sales table · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[21] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · GMNA FY2025 results table · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[22] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · GM Financial FY2025 results table · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[23] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · profit dependence on full-size ICE trucks and SUVs · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[24] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · GMNA margin priority and China JV results · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[25] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · cost of sales composition and FY2025 cost drivers · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[26] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · strategy overview and 2025 tariff impact · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[27] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 contract liabilities and revenue recognized · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[28] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 revenue disaggregation (Note 2) · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[29] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · software-enabled services and Super Cruise · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[30] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 GM Financial results table · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[31] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · eight-quarter EBIT-adjusted reconciliation · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[32] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · FY2025 adjusted automotive free cash flow and capital return · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[33] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · share repurchase and dividend actions · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[34] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · FY2025 automotive available liquidity · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[35] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · FY2025 warranty liability roll-forward · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[36] GM 8-K filed 2026-07-21 · 1H26 results table · 2026-07-21 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000049/

[37] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 GMNA EBIT-adjusted drivers · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[38] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 GMI results table · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[39] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 Automotive China JV data · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[40] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 1H26 adjusted automotive free cash flow components · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[41] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 share repurchases · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[42] GM 8-K filed 2026-07-21 · quarterly dividend declaration · 2026-07-21 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000049/

[43] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 automotive available liquidity · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[44] GM 8-K filed 2026-07-21 · second guidance raise of 2026 · 2026-07-21 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000049/

[45] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 industry sales and market share table · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[46] GM 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-21 · management highlights (Drillr summary) · 2026-07-21 · earnings-call · https://investor.gm.com/events-and-presentations

[47] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 GMNA revenue drivers · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[48] GM 8-K filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 segment EBIT-adjusted reconciliation · 2026-07-21 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000049/

[49] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · GMNA profitability factors and FY2025 EBIT-adjusted drivers · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[50] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · volume sensitivity and commodity cost risk · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[51] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 tariff outlook and IEEPA ruling · 2026-07-21 · General Motors · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[52] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · Ultium Cells equity earnings and impairment · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[53] GM 10-Q filed 2026-07-21 · 2Q26 GM Financial EBT-adjusted drivers · 2026-07-21 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000035/

[54] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · FY2025 industry sales and market share table · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[55] GM 1Q26 earnings call 2026-04-28 · Q&A on inventory and share (Drillr summary) · 2026-04-28 · earnings-call · https://investor.gm.com/events-and-presentations

[56] The Motley Fool 2026-08-26 · History Says What the 2025 Auto Tariffs Cost General Motors, and Canada's Rate Is About to Double · 2026-08-26 · The Motley Fool · https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/26/history-says-what-the-2025-auto-tariffs-cost-general-motors-and-canada-s-rate-is-about-to-double/

[57] TheStreet 2026-09-17 · Top analyst strongly resets General Motors target before earnings · 2026-09-17 · TheStreet · https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/top-analyst-strongly-resets-general-184700704.html

[58] GM 1Q26 earnings call 2026-04-28 · guidance section (Drillr summary) · 2026-04-28 · General Motors(Drillr 电话会摘要) · https://investor.gm.com/events-and-presentations

[59] GM 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · 1Q26 results table · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000033/

[60] GM 8-K filed 2026-04-28 · 1Q26 guidance raise on Supreme Court tariff ruling · 2026-04-28 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000033/

[61] GM 10-Q filed 2026-04-28 · 1Q26 GMNA EBIT-adjusted drivers and IEEPA adjustment · 2026-04-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001467858&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[62] GM 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-21 · Q&A (Drillr summary) · 2026-07-21 · earnings-call · https://investor.gm.com/events-and-presentations

[63] GM 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-21 · risks section (Drillr summary) · 2026-07-21 · earnings-call · https://investor.gm.com/events-and-presentations

[64] GM 10-Q filed 2026-04-28 · 1Q26 warranty expense table · 2026-04-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001467858&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[65] GM 10-Q filed 2026-04-28 · 1Q26 EV realignment charges and cash outflows · 2026-04-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001467858&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[66] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · FY2025 contract liabilities and expected recognition · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/

[67] GM 10-K filed 2026-01-27 · GM Financial allowance sensitivity · 2026-01-27 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000146785826000013/