[PM] Philip Morris International: Q3 2026 Earnings Hinge on Pricing and ZYN Costs

Philip Morris International (PMI) is the world's largest international tobacco company: it sells Marlboro and other cigarettes outside the United States while moving smokers to smoke-free products such as the IQOS heated tobacco system and ZYN nicotine pouches[1]. Ahead of the Philip Morris Q3 2026 earnings, Drillr's earnings calendar shows a call on 2026-10-21 covering the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026[2]; a MarketBeat note dated September 10 lists October 20 instead, and the company has not yet confirmed a date in its own announcement[3]. The latest disclosed quarter is the second quarter of 2026: net revenues were $11.192 billion, up 10.4% and 7.6% organically[4], adjusted diluted EPS was $2.20, up 15.2%[5], heated tobacco unit shipments were 41.8 billion, up 7.6%[6], cigarette shipments were 156.9 billion, up 1.1%[7], and U.S. ZYN shipments were 2.9 billion pouches, up 1.8%[8]. On September 8 the company changed its third-quarter adjusted EPS forecast for currency only, from $2.20–$2.25 to $2.29–$2.34[9], and lifted the full-year range to $8.35–$8.50[10], while its full-year assumptions of 5% to 7% organic net revenue growth and 7% to 9% organic operating income growth still date from July 22[11]. Two outside compilations of third-quarter EPS exist and they contradict each other: MarketBeat gave $2.25 on September 10[3], and Insider Monkey on July 27 relayed a FactSet figure of $2.42 cited by Barron's[12]; the two differ in definition and in collection date.

Three things are worth watching in these results. The first is whether cigarette pricing can still outrun falling volumes: all of the 6.4% organic growth in the International Combustibles segment in the second quarter came from pricing equal to 10.0% of the prior-year quarter's revenue[13], while the company's full-year assumption is a 2% to 3% decline in cigarette shipments[14] and the first half fell only 1.9%[15], which implies a second-half decline of roughly 2% to 4%, so the quality of the pricing will only show in a quarter when volumes fall again. The second is how much U.S. profit the ZYN defense consumes: the U.S. segment's adjusted gross margin dropped from 71.4% to 65.4% in the second quarter[16], adjusted operating income fell 19.1% organically to $279 million[17], and the company has said plainly that it will accelerate U.S. investment in the second half[18], so the third quarter gives the first reading on the size of that spending. The third is the real demand for IQOS ahead of Japan's second excise step on October 1: heated tobacco unit shipments grew 7.6% in the second quarter but adjusted in-market sales grew only 5.1%[19], and adjusted in-market sales in Japan fell 3.4%[20], so if shipments again run well ahead of in-market sales in the third quarter, the excess is inventory that has to be given back in the fourth. Together these three items decide whether third-quarter EPS reaches the $2.29–$2.34 range through operations or through currency.

Company Background and Business Structure

PMI's main storyline for more than a decade has been moving smokers from cigarettes to smoke-free products that do not burn tobacco. The company was incorporated as a Virginia holding company in 1987, listed on the New York Stock Exchange after its 2008 spin-off from Altria, and has since sold cigarettes only outside the United States[1]; its core brand, Marlboro, accounted for about 43% of 2025 cigarette shipment volume[21]. It launched the IQOS heated tobacco system in Nagoya, Japan, in 2014, acquired Swedish Match in November 2022 to obtain ZYN nicotine pouches, and has held the full rights to commercialize IQOS in the United States since April 2024[22]. Net revenues were $40.648 billion in 2025, of which smoke-free products were $16.854 billion, or about 41.5%[23]; in the second quarter of 2026 that share was about 42%, and quarterly net revenues exceeded $11 billion for the first time[24].

Effective January 1, 2026, the company replaced its four geographic segments with three reportable segments[25], and management's segment performance measure changed from regional operating income to segment gross profit[26]. International Smoke-Free sells heated tobacco units (IQOS devices plus consumables such as TEREA, HEETS and SENTIA), ZYN nicotine pouches outside the United States, traditional Nordic snus and the VEEV e-vapor product; its second-quarter net revenues were $3.877 billion, about 34.6% of the total[27], at an adjusted gross margin of 70.1%[16]. International Combustibles sells cigarettes outside the United States, where five international brands (Marlboro, Parliament, Chesterfield, L&M and Philip Morris) made up 81% of 2025 cigarette shipments[21]; its second-quarter net revenues were $6.459 billion, about 57.7% of the total, at a 67.9% gross margin[28]. The U.S. segment is mainly ZYN, along with cigars and the Aspeya wellness business, with second-quarter net revenues of $856 million, about 7.6% of the total, at a 65.4% gross margin[29].

Most of the company's direct customers are not smokers but distributors, wholesalers and retailers in each country[30]. In 2025 one distributor in Europe and one in East Asia each accounted for 10% or more of consolidated net revenues, which is the main customer concentration the company discloses[31]. End-consumer purchases are frequent, small and strongly brand-loyal repeat purchases; the IQOS device is only the entry point, and the profit comes from the heated tobacco units and nicotine pouches that users consume every day.

Two concentrations on the supply side are worth remembering. The company buys tobacco leaf globally, contracts about 23% of it directly with farmers, and purchased direct materials such as printed paper board and acetate tow from about 350 suppliers[32], while IQOS devices are made by third-party electronics manufacturing service providers[33]; substantially all ZYN sold in the United States comes from a single plant in Kentucky[34]. In August the company also disclosed a contract manufacturing arrangement for cigarettes with Altria and said it does not anticipate a material impact on its 2026 financials[35].

Financial History and Current Position

The annual record shows PMI growing revenue and profit together from 2021 through 2025. Net revenues rose from $31.405 billion to $40.648 billion and operating income from $12.972 billion to $14.892 billion[36], while net earnings attributable to PMI rose from $9.109 billion to $11.348 billion[37]. Profit in 2023 and 2024 was depressed by a goodwill impairment and a $2.316 billion impairment of the investment in the Canadian affiliate RBH; 2024 net earnings were only $7.057 billion and diluted EPS $4.52, before EPS returned to $7.26 in 2025[37].

The composition of that growth is clear: smoke-free products grow through volume and cigarettes grow through price. Smoke-free net revenues rose from $12.840 billion in 2023 to $16.854 billion in 2025, and combustible net revenues rose from $22.334 billion to $23.794 billion[23]; combustible volumes were in fact falling, with 2025 cigarette shipments of 607.4 billion units, down 1.5%[38], and the revenue increase came from pricing[39]. Excise taxes that the company collects for governments are excluded from net revenues, and in 2025 they amounted to $53.211 billion, more than net revenues themselves[40].

On cash, full-year 2025 operating cash flow was flat with the prior year because of working capital, not profit. Operating cash flow was $12.2 billion, and working capital absorbed an additional $2.4 billion, including a one-time payment in January of about $0.8 billion for the German heated tobacco surcharge[41]. In the same year capital expenditures were $1.6 billion[42], dividends paid were $8.6 billion[43], and total debt at year-end was $48.8 billion[44].

In 2026, the latest interim figures show adjusted profit growing faster than revenue while reported profit was pulled down by a one-time impairment. Second-quarter net revenues were $11.192 billion, up 10.4% (7.6% organically), gross profit was $7.659 billion, and operating income was $4.530 billion, up 22.0% (10.7% organically)[45]; adjusted diluted EPS was $2.20, up 15.2%, while reported diluted EPS was $1.80, down 7.7%[5], because the company recorded a further non-cash impairment of $511 million on RBH[46]. First-half operating cash flow was $5.1 billion, compared with $3.1 billion a year earlier[47]; at the end of June total debt was $49.1 billion[48] and cash was $6.0 billion, of which $2.8 billion was held in Russia[49]. On September 8 the company raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.35–$8.50 for currency only[10], and on September 18 it raised the quarterly dividend from $1.47 to $1.60 per share[50].

Operating Model

PMI's revenue equals volume times net price after excise for three product groups, and the net price depends directly on how excise increases in each country are passed through. Net revenues are sales to distributors, wholesalers and retailers, net of sales and promotion incentives and net of the excise taxes collected for governments[51]; excise taxes were $53.211 billion in 2025, more than the $40.648 billion of net revenues[40]. International Combustibles ($6.459 billion in the second quarter) has slowly declining volumes over time and grows through annual price increases: in the second quarter pricing contributed $588 million while volume and geographic mix subtracted $212 million[52]. International Smoke-Free ($3.877 billion) grows mainly through heated tobacco unit volume: volume and mix contributed $316 million and pricing only $86 million[27]. The U.S. segment ($856 million) is essentially ZYN shipment volume times the net price per can after promotions[29]. About nine-tenths of revenue comes from outside the United States, so a stronger dollar lowers translated revenue, and currency added $299 million in the second quarter[45]; price increases reach revenue in the same quarter, whereas shipments can temporarily diverge from in-market sales as distributor inventories move and then converge again[53].

The key to profit is that pricing carries almost no matching cost, while smoke-free products spread fixed costs over greater scale. Cost of sales consists mainly of tobacco leaf, filter and packaging materials, labor and manufacturing costs, shipping, and IQOS devices made by contract manufacturers[33]. The consolidated gross margin was 68.4% in the second quarter, and the adjusted gross margins of the three segments were 70.1% for International Smoke-Free, 67.9% for International Combustibles and 65.4% for the U.S.[16]; cigarette gross profit grew 8.0% organically, faster than the 6.4% revenue growth[13], the smoke-free segment's margin rose 1.8 percentage points from a year earlier, and the U.S. margin fell 6.0 percentage points because capacity expansion raised manufacturing costs. Below gross profit, marketing, administration and research costs were $2.981 billion in the second quarter and are not allocated to segments[45], and almost all 2025 research and development spending went to smoke-free products. Second-quarter adjusted operating income was $4.773 billion, a 42.6% margin, up 0.7 percentage points[54]; the items excluded from adjusted EPS are not small, with a full-year total of $1.07 per share that includes $0.50 of amortization of acquired intangibles and $0.33 for the RBH impairment[10].

Tobacco is an asset-light business, and swings in cash come mainly from working capital, not capital expenditures. Operating cash flow was $12.2 billion in 2025[41] against capital expenditures of only $1.6 billion, mostly for smoke-free manufacturing capacity[42]; ahead of excise increases the company produces early and pays excise to build inventory, the timing gap between tax payments and collections can absorb more than $2 billion in a single year, and the company also sells receivables through factoring to speed up collections. First-half 2026 operating cash flow was $5.1 billion, $2.0 billion more than a year earlier, mainly because the prior-year January included the one-time German surcharge payment of about $0.8 billion and a larger inventory build[47]; the company's full-year plan is operating cash flow of around $13.5 billion and capital expenditures of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion[55]. Cash goes mainly to dividends: $8.6 billion in 2025[43], $4.6 billion in the first half of 2026[56], and a quarterly dividend just raised to $1.60 in September[50], while the company has stated that it will make no share repurchases in 2026 and targets a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio close to 2.0x by year-end[11]. The debt from the Swedish Match acquisition is still being worked down, with total debt of $49.1 billion at the end of June[48], and $2.8 billion of the $6.0 billion in cash sits in Russia, where capital controls restrict its use[49].

This model has four reading limits that should be kept in mind when interpreting third-quarter data. First, comparable third-quarter 2025 figures under the new segment structure have not yet been disclosed, so the only quarterly reference is the second quarter of 2026, and because the third quarter carries seasonality in pricing and inventory building, sequential comparisons need care. Second, costs are no longer allocated to segments, so only gross profit, not operating income, is visible for International Smoke-Free and International Combustibles, and the dollar amount of the added U.S. investment is not visible either[26]. Third, adjusted in-market sales, category shares and ZYN offtake are all company estimates, and ZYN offtake is described only qualitatively. Fourth, revenue and profit for single markets such as Japan and Russia are not disclosed, so the effect of the Japanese excise increase can only be observed indirectly through volume and share.

Industry and Competitive Position

In the international market outside China and the United States, industry volume is essentially not growing, and PMI grows through share and product mix. Combined cigarette and heated tobacco unit industry volume was about 2,587 billion units in 2025, broadly flat over three years, while PMI's share rose from 28.6% to 29.2%, made up of 23.4% in cigarettes and 5.8% in heated tobacco units, and the company holds a share of at least 15% in about 100 markets[57]. Its international competitors are British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco and Imperial Brands, together with state-owned tobacco enterprises in Algeria, Egypt, China, Thailand, Vietnam and elsewhere[58].

In the heat-not-burn category, PMI's lead is far larger than its position in cigarettes. The company holds around three-quarters of global heat-not-burn category volume, IQOS represents 9.2% of combined cigarette and heated tobacco unit volume in the markets where it is present[59], and its share of the Japanese heated tobacco category was 68% in June[20]. These shares are the company's own estimates, the only available reference is industry data on the company's definitions, and competitors' individual revenue and profit figures fall outside the comparison here.

U.S. nicotine pouches present a different picture: the category is still growing, but ZYN's relative position is weakening. The company itself calls the competitive landscape "uneven," and ZYN offtake in the second quarter was only flat to slightly growing from a year earlier[8]; some competitors have put new products on shelves before receiving FDA marketing authorization[60], and in final guidance issued on May 8, 2026 the FDA said it does not intend to prioritize enforcement against pending products that have shown meaningful progress toward authorization[61]. ZYN's card is its regulatory status: 20 variants received marketing authorization in January 2025, and on June 30, 2026 they received the first modified risk tobacco product authorization for a nicotine pouch[18].

Core Debates

With Japan's second excise step days away and flavor bans spreading in Europe, can IQOS consumable volumes keep growing?

This question matters because IQOS is the engine of PMI's transformation and the main source of the group's incremental gross profit. International Smoke-Free is only about 35% of revenue, yet with a 70.1% gross margin and double-digit growth it supplies most of the incremental gross profit: consolidated gross profit rose $793 million in the second quarter, of which $397 million came from this segment[52]. Japan is the most mature IQOS market, and the excise on heated tobacco is being aligned with cigarettes in two steps, the first on April 1, 2026 and the second on October 1[62][63]; the European Union has banned characterizing flavors in heated tobacco, Poland is the latest market where the ban took effect, and the affected products are a significant proportion of the company's smoke-free sales in the EU[64]. The transmission runs as follows: smokers switch from cigarettes to IQOS, in-market sales of heated tobacco units grow, distributor replenishment becomes shipments, and segment revenue grows while scale spreads fixed costs and lifts the gross margin; the Japanese excise increase is passed through in price, and if smokers move to cheaper competing products or consume less, Japanese in-market sales and share fall and drag on the whole segment.

Current evidence shows growth continuing, but Japan and Poland have already cut the global growth rate in half. Heated tobacco unit shipments were 41.8 billion in the second quarter, up 7.6%[6], and 83.1 billion in the first half, up 9.4%[15], while adjusted in-market sales grew only 5.1%, or 10% excluding Japan and Poland according to the company[19]. Adjusted in-market sales in Japan fell 3.4%, which the company estimates as growth of 1.0% excluding consumer pantry de-loading; the IQOS share of the heated tobacco category was 68% in June, and the lower-priced SENTIA consumable is capturing price-sensitive users[20]. In Europe adjusted in-market sales grew 5.1% and share rose 1.0 percentage point to 11.8%, with Italy up 10.8%, and markets outside Japan and Europe grew 14.4%[65]. Segment organic net revenues grew 11.8% (13.7% in the first half)[27], and the adjusted gross margin rose 1.8 percentage points to 70.1% (70.0% in the first half, up 1.9 percentage points)[16].

The same data also support a less optimistic reading, and that is the unresolved part. The company's price increase was the largest in the industry, and the fact that SENTIA is capturing users itself shows that some consumers are trading down[20]; shipment growth ran 2.5 percentage points ahead of in-market sales in the second quarter, and if inventory is built again before October 1, third-quarter shipments and revenue will look good but will have to be given back in the fourth quarter, a distortion from distributor inventory movements that the company itself has flagged[53]. The German heated tobacco surcharge is another open variable: the company currently accounts for it as a reduction in net revenues, and whether the roughly $751 million already paid can be recovered on appeal is not known[66]. Second-quarter data cannot tell whether the drag from Japan and Poland is a one-time de-loading and adjustment period or a change in what smokers choose.

In the third quarter the number to watch is in-market sales, not shipments. Specifically: whether adjusted in-market sales of heated tobacco units grow at least 5.1%; whether adjusted in-market sales in Japan are better than −3.4%, remain positive excluding inventory effects, and whether category share holds at 68%; whether the gap between shipment growth and in-market sales growth exceeds 2.5 percentage points; whether segment organic revenue growth stays above 10% and the adjusted gross margin keeps expanding from a year earlier; and how the company prices for the second excise step on October 1. Observations that would weaken the current understanding are smokers in Japan moving to cheaper competitors or back to cigarettes after the price increase, with share falling below 68%; flavor bans taking effect in more EU markets so that the drag spreads beyond Poland; third-quarter shipments inflated by pre-excise inventory building followed by de-stocking in the fourth quarter; or a lost appeal on the German surcharge.

A 10% price increase carried the cigarette beat last quarter; does the math still work once volumes fall again?

Cigarettes still account for nearly six-tenths of PMI's revenue and gross profit and fund both the dividend and the smoke-free investment, so the durability of pricing determines how much room the company has. Pricing contributed $689 million to consolidated revenue in the second quarter, of which $588 million came from International Combustibles, while that segment's volume and mix was −$212 million[52], which means most of the group's organic growth rests on cigarette pricing. The company's own full-year assumption is a 2% to 3% decline in cigarette shipments[14], and the first half fell only 1.9%[15], which works out to a second-half decline of roughly 2% to 4%. The transmission runs as follows: retail prices rise market by market, the net price after excise increases, and that offsets falling volume and the mix drag from growth in lower-priced markets, so segment revenue and gross profit grow; because pricing carries almost no cost, gross profit grows faster than revenue, and conversely, once pricing no longer covers the volume and mix drag, segment revenue growth and gross profit growth fall together.

The second-quarter figures were strong, but the first half as a whole looks far more ordinary. Cigarette shipments were 156.9 billion units in the second quarter, up 1.1%, with the increases coming from Turkey, Indonesia and Egypt[7]; pricing equaled 10.0% of the prior-year quarter's revenue, which the company called an "exceptional" quarter, segment organic net revenues grew 6.4% and gross profit grew 8.0%, cigarette category share was flat at 25.3%, and Marlboro reached 11.0%, up 0.3 percentage points and level with its all-time high[13]; the adjusted gross margin rose 1.0 percentage point to 67.9% (67.7% in the first half, up 1.4 percentage points)[16]. First-half shipments were 294.2 billion units, down 1.9%, organic net revenues grew only 3.8%, and pricing was $1,042 million, about 9.3% of prior-year first-half revenue[67], which implies first-quarter organic growth of only about 1.0%.

An alternative reading is that part of the second-quarter strength came from timing, not trend. The timing of price increases and inventory building in developing markets may have been concentrated in the quarter, volume growth was concentrated in lower-priced markets, and mix still subtracted $212 million. The company changed its full-year cigarette shipment assumption from "around 3%" to "2% to 3%"[14], yet it did not raise its full-year assumptions of 5% to 7% organic net revenue growth and 7% to 9% organic operating income growth[11], which indicates that management itself did not extrapolate the second-quarter pace into the second half. Whether 10% pricing is a one-quarter event or a new normal remains unanswered.

The tests for the third quarter can be stated precisely. Watch whether International Combustibles organic revenue growth is at least the first half's 3.8%, whether pricing stays above about 8.5% of the prior-year quarter's revenue, whether the decline in cigarette shipments falls between about 2.1% and 4.1%, whether the volume and mix drag exceeds the second quarter's $212 million, and whether cigarette category share holds at 25.3% and Marlboro at 11.0%. Situations that would weaken the current understanding include large excise increases in major markets that the company cannot fully pass through, shrinking the pricing contribution; repeated large price increases pushing smokers to low-priced brands or illicit cigarettes and lowering share; a fade in volume growth in Turkey, Indonesia and Egypt that takes the shipment decline beyond the full-year guidance; and controls on, or a forced disposal of, the Russian business, which accounts for about 9% of shipment volume and 6% of net revenues[68].

ZYN is cutting price per pouch, widening its range and spending more to defend share; how much U.S. profit does that defense cost?

The U.S. segment is only 7.6% of PMI's revenue, yet it has been an important reason investors were willing to pay more for the shares over the past two years, so its profit trend draws more attention than its size. ZYN created the U.S. nicotine pouch category, and in 2025 it drove a 29.4% increase in oral product shipments in the Americas to 930 million cans[69]. The situation changed in 2026: the category is still growing, but ZYN offtake is only flat to slightly growing, which the company attributes to the "uneven competitive landscape"[8], meaning competitors' new products reached shelves without FDA authorization while the FDA said in May that it would not prioritize enforcement against such pending products[61]. The company's response was to launch ULTRA at a lower price per pouch in June, fill out the range, and accelerate U.S. investment in the second half[18]. The transmission runs as follows: promotions and lower-priced products reduce the net price, capacity expansion raises manufacturing costs, U.S. segment revenue grows more slowly than volume and the gross margin falls, and with higher marketing investment on top, segment adjusted operating income declines; only if the defense works does volume growth eventually outweigh the price and cost pressure.

Volumes improved in the second quarter, but profit was still falling noticeably. ZYN shipments were 2.9 billion pouches, up 1.8%, a clear improvement on the first quarter, with the first half at 5.2 billion pouches, down 11.2%[8]; U.S. segment net revenues were $856 million, down 0.9% organically, the company described ZYN revenue as broadly flat, and gross profit fell 9.2%[29]. The adjusted gross margin dropped from 71.4% to 65.4% because capacity expansion raised manufacturing costs, and it was 63.9% in the first half, down 10.2 percentage points[16]; adjusted operating income was $279 million, down 19.1% organically, and only $379 million in the first half, down 50.2% organically[17]. Pricing turned positive in the second quarter at +$15 million, against −$65 million for the first half as a whole, which puts the first quarter at about −$80 million[70].

The caution is that the improvement in year-over-year figures may mostly reflect the comparison base, not a stabilizing share. In the first half of 2025 ZYN was restocking after shortages and ran almost no promotions[70], and promotional costs, which are taken in net revenues, only rose meaningfully in the second half of 2025 after ZYN returned to full availability[71]; from the third quarter onward the base already includes promotions, so year-over-year comparisons will improve on their own. The company does not disclose a share figure for ZYN, so year-over-year shipments and revenue alone cannot separate a working defense from an easier base.

The third quarter gives the first reading on the cost of the defense. Watch whether ZYN shipment growth is at least 1.8% and how the company describes offtake, whether U.S. segment organic revenue turns positive, whether pricing stays positive and whether the mix drag widens because of ULTRA's lower price, whether the adjusted gross margin holds within the 63.9% to 65.4% range, whether adjusted operating income falls below $190 million, and whether the new 1.5mg and 8mg variants launch in the third quarter as planned[18]. Situations that would weaken the current understanding are competitors' unauthorized products continuing to spread without FDA enforcement while ZYN keeps losing share; price cuts and promotions that fail to buy volume, leaving both pricing and mix negative; a production interruption at the Kentucky plant that supplies substantially all U.S. ZYN[34]; or an expansion of addiction litigation against ZYN.

With management committing to spend more in the second half, can third-quarter adjusted EPS still land in the $2.29–$2.34 range?

PMI's profit story this year has two layers, and the one that needs testing is the layer excluding currency. Full-year EPS growth excluding currency of 7.5% to 9.5% has not changed since the start of the year, while the figure including currency has been revised repeatedly as the dollar moved: lowered for currency on July 22, then raised for currency on September 8 to $8.35–$8.50[10]; the third-quarter forecast likewise moved from $2.20–$2.25, which included an unfavorable currency impact of $0.08[72], to $2.29–$2.34, which includes a favorable impact of about $0.01, leaving the range excluding currency unchanged at roughly $2.28–$2.33[9]. First-half adjusted EPS was $4.16[73], so the full-year range implies $4.19 to $4.34 for the second half; but organic operating income grew only 6.1% in the first half, below the low end of the 7% to 9% full-year assumption[11], and the company has at the same time announced faster U.S. investment in the second half. The transmission runs as follows: cigarette pricing plus smoke-free volume growth raises consolidated gross profit, faster U.S. commercial investment and higher transport and energy costs make the cost line less favorable, the two together set organic operating income growth, and after broadly stable net financing costs, an effective tax rate of around 21.5% and currency, the result is adjusted EPS; turning profit into cash also depends on working capital swings from pre-excise inventory building and the timing of tax payments, and cash determines whether the company can bring net debt down to about 2.0x EBITDA by year-end and support a dividend that was just raised 8.8% in September[50].

Second-quarter profit quality was good, but the company itself acknowledges that the upside against its expectations came mainly from currency. Adjusted EPS was $2.20, up 15.2%, or 13.6% excluding a favorable currency impact of $0.03, and the company said the amount above its prior expectations was primarily due to transactional currency effects[5]; organic operating income grew 10.7%[4], the adjusted operating margin was 42.6%, and the variance table shows pricing contributing $689 million against a cost line of −$193 million[54], while the cost line for the first half totaled −$423 million, which puts the first quarter at about −$230 million[74]. Total cigarette and smoke-free shipments rose 2.5% to 205.2 billion equivalent units in the second quarter and were 389.4 billion in the first half, up 0.4%[28]. First-half operating cash flow was $5.1 billion, $2.0 billion more than a year earlier[47], against a full-year target of around $13.5 billion[55].

An alternative reading is that part of the second-quarter margin came from the timing of spending, and that part would be given back in the third quarter. The company itself says investment will accelerate in the second half[18], and Insider Monkey relays management as saying that about one-third of the outperformance came from currency and the remainder from cigarettes and commercial spending that shifted from the second quarter into the third[75]; these oral remarks do not appear in the 8-K or the 10-Q, so they can only be tested against the third-quarter cost line and U.S. segment profit. The company also notes that its full-year forecast already factors in some increases in transport, energy and other input costs from the Middle East conflict but does not assume a prolonged impact[76]. If the cost line worsens markedly in the third quarter while pricing fades, EPS might need currency to reach the range, and that cannot be judged today.

The third quarter is the first test of whether spending more and protecting profit can hold at the same time. Watch whether adjusted EPS lands within $2.29–$2.34 and is at least about $2.28 excluding currency, whether organic operating income growth is at least 7%, whether the cost line is less favorable than the first quarter's roughly −$230 million, whether the company maintains its full-year assumptions of 5% to 7% organic revenue growth and 7% to 9% organic operating income growth, and whether nine-month operating cash flow and the full-year expectation of around $13.5 billion are maintained. Situations that would weaken the current understanding are a renewed rise in the dollar that turns the currency contribution from positive to negative, U.S. investment larger than pricing can cover, a further rise in transport, energy and raw material costs because of the Middle East situation, or pre-excise inventory building that ties up working capital and leaves operating cash flow below the full-year target.

Risks and Falsifiers

Russia is the hardest risk to quantify on PMI's balance sheet, and what is exposed is cash plus a meaningful piece of revenue. The company still operates in Russia, where capital controls restrict moving funds out, where legal action, deprivation of assets or nationalization are possible, and where any disposal must meet complex approval conditions; in 2025 Russia accounted for around 9% of total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume and around 6% of net revenues[68]. Of the company's $6.0 billion in cash at the end of June 2026, $2.8 billion was held in Russia[49], compared with $2.3 billion at the end of 2025[77]. The observation that would falsify this concern is a disclosure that the cash held in Russia has been moved out, or that a disposal has been completed without a material impairment.

The Japanese excise increase and the EU flavor ban are the same kind of risk: whether smokers leave IQOS after regulation changes the price or the product. The former East Asia segment that includes Japan had 2025 smoke-free net revenues of $4.217 billion, about one-quarter of the company's smoke-free revenue, and Europe on the former basis had smoke-free net revenues of $8.127 billion, the largest smoke-free market[23]; adjusted in-market sales in Japan already fell 3.4% in the second quarter, and Japan together with Poland pulled global growth from 10% to 5.1%, while Europe grew about 8% excluding the markets where bans took effect in the past year, a drag of about 3 percentage points[65]. The falsifier for Japan is third-quarter adjusted in-market sales of at least +1.0% excluding inventory effects together with an IQOS heated tobacco category share of at least 68%; the falsifier for Europe is adjusted in-market sales growth of at least 5.1% and a share of at least 11.8%.

Excise risk exposes the net price of cigarettes, and cigarettes currently carry most of the group's organic growth. Governments may raise tobacco excise sharply or in a discriminatory way for fiscal reasons, and if the company cannot pass the full burden on to smokers, the net price after excise stops rising; the $53.211 billion of excise the company collected in 2025 is 1.3 times its $40.648 billion of net revenues[40], and all of the 6.4% organic growth in International Combustibles in the second quarter came from $588 million of pricing[13]. The falsifier for this concern is third-quarter pricing of at least about 8.5% of the prior-year quarter's revenue together with a cigarette category share of at least 25.3%.

The United States carries two independent risks, one regulatory and one at the plant. Competitors are selling new nicotine pouch products without FDA marketing authorization[60], and the FDA has said it does not intend to prioritize enforcement against pending products that have shown meaningful progress[61], which erodes the advantage ZYN built on its compliant status and exposes the U.S. segment's $856 million of second-quarter net revenues and $279 million of adjusted operating income; the falsifier is third-quarter ZYN shipment growth of at least 1.8% together with a company description of offtake that improves to clear growth. The other risk is that substantially all ZYN sold in the United States comes from one plant in Kentucky[34], on which the first half's 5.2 billion pouches of shipments and $1.478 billion of U.S. segment net revenues depended entirely[70], so a prolonged shutdown would directly cause out-of-stocks; the falsifier is a disclosure that a plant outside the United States or a second plant can supply the U.S. market.

What to Watch Next

The points below set out the key metric, current reference level and decision condition for each debate, so they can be checked one by one on the day third-quarter results are released.

• IQOS through the Japanese excise increase and European flavor bans: adjusted in-market sales of heated tobacco units grew 5.1% in the second quarter against shipment growth of 7.6%, and Japan fell 3.4% (up 1.0% excluding inventory effects) with a 68% category share. Watch whether the gap between shipments and in-market sales exceeds 2.5 percentage points and how the October 1 excise step is priced. Japan at +1.0% or better excluding inventory with share at 68% or higher weakens the concern; share below 68% or fourth-quarter de-stocking confirms it.
• Cigarette pricing against falling volume: International Combustibles grew 6.4% organically in the second quarter on 10.0% pricing, and 3.8% in the first half with shipments down 1.9%. Watch whether the shipment decline falls between about 2.1% and 4.1% and whether the mix drag exceeds $212 million. Pricing of at least about 8.5% with share holding at 25.3% confirms the current understanding; shrinking pricing with falling share falsifies it.
• The profit cost of defending ZYN: the U.S. adjusted gross margin was 65.4% and adjusted operating income $279 million in the second quarter, with ZYN shipments of 2.9 billion pouches, up 1.8%. Watch whether pricing stays positive and whether the 1.5mg and 8mg variants launch. A margin held within 63.9% to 65.4% with shipment growth of at least 1.8% confirms; adjusted operating income below $190 million is a weakening signal.
• Third-quarter EPS and the full-year assumptions: adjusted EPS was $2.20 in the second quarter, organic operating income grew 6.1% in the first half, and the second-quarter cost line was −$193 million. Watch whether EPS excluding currency is at least about $2.28 and whether the 5% to 7% and 7% to 9% full-year assumptions are maintained. Organic operating income growth of at least 7% confirms; a cost line less favorable than about −$230 million with the range reached only through currency falsifies.
• Cash and leverage: first-half operating cash flow was $5.1 billion and total debt was $49.1 billion at the end of June. Watch whether pre-excise inventory building ties up working capital. Maintaining the full-year expectation of around $13.5 billion confirms; a cut weakens the target of close to 2.0x by year-end.

Conclusion

Two engines drive PMI's business: cigarettes supply cash through pricing and smoke-free products supply growth through volume, and both are still running. Second-quarter net revenues were $11.192 billion, up 7.6% organically[4], adjusted EPS was $2.20, up 15.2%[5], first-half operating cash flow was $5.1 billion[47], and the quarterly dividend was just raised to $1.60[50], so the financial position is stable. The unresolved relationship is a mismatch in where growth comes from: the largest increment in the quarter came from 10.0% pricing in a cigarette business whose volumes are in long-term decline[13], the most profitable product, IQOS, met an excise increase and a flavor ban in Japan and Poland and saw in-market sales growth slow to 5.1%[19], and the most closely watched business, U.S. ZYN, grew shipments only 1.8%[8] while segment operating income fell 19.1% organically[17]. The company's third-quarter EPS range of $2.29–$2.34 is unchanged excluding currency[9], and it has to absorb fading pricing, inventory building ahead of Japan's second excise step and faster U.S. investment all at once.

Since the second-quarter results, the two publishers' readings agree closely on the facts and differ clearly on the conclusion. Reuters, in its report on the day of the results, attributed the beat to cigarettes, noting that second-quarter cigarette shipments of 156.9 billion units exceeded the Wall Street compilation of 151.17 billion cited by Bernstein, and quoting Bernstein analysts as saying, "In ten years of following tobacco, we struggle to remember such a big beat for a cigarette business"; the report also said the company was raising ZYN investment amid intensifying nicotine pouch competition and price pressure, and launched ZYN Ultra in June at a lower price per pouch to defend against rivals such as British American Tobacco's Velo[78]. Jeff Lewis of Insider Monkey accepts that the forecast cut came only from currency while the operating forecast was unchanged, and that unexpectedly strong cigarettes gave the company room to invest in ZYN, but his opposing view is that "the quarter's biggest positive came from the business Philip Morris is supposed to be moving beyond, while the economics of its most important U.S. growth brand continued to weaken," with ZYN offtake only flat to slightly growing in a growing category and the U.S. adjusted gross margin down 6 percentage points[75]. Both readings map to the second and third debates: Bernstein's comment judges a single quarter and does not answer whether 10% pricing can last, and Insider Monkey's points on the currency share and the spending shift come from oral remarks on the call, which can only be verified against the third-quarter cost line. These are outside interpretations, not facts, and they do not amount to a majority opinion; only these two assessments qualified and could be verified word for word, so the coverage is limited.

The combination that would materially strengthen the current understanding is International Combustibles pricing staying above about 8.5% with share holding at 25.3%, adjusted in-market sales of heated tobacco units growing at least 5.1% with Japanese share holding at 68%, the U.S. adjusted gross margin staying between 63.9% and 65.4%, and at the same time organic operating income growth returning above 7% with third-quarter EPS of at least about $2.28 excluding currency. The combination that would materially weaken it is shrinking pricing with a cigarette shipment decline beyond about 4.1%, heated tobacco unit shipments running well ahead of in-market sales followed by fourth-quarter de-stocking, U.S. adjusted operating income falling below $190 million while ZYN shipments still fail to grow, and finally EPS reaching the range only through currency, with the full-year operating cash flow expectation of around $13.5 billion lowered as a result.

Sources

[1] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · business description · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[2] Drillr earnings calendar · PM earnings call scheduled 2026-10-21 (calendar last updated 2026-09-20); MarketBeat's 2026-09-10 note lists 2026-10-20 instead, and PMI had not filed its own date announcement by the cutoff · 2026-09-20 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] MarketBeat 2026-09-10 · 3Q26 consensus EPS · 2026-09-10 · MarketBeat · https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/guidance-philip-morris-international-nyse-pm-updates-q3-2026-earnings-guidance-2026-09-10/

[4] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 headline results · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[5] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 adjusted diluted EPS · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[6] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 shipment volume by category · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[7] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 cigarette shipments and share · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[8] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 ZYN shipments, offtake and ULTRA launch · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[9] PM 8-K filed 2026-09-08 · raised 2026 EPS forecast and 3Q forecast for currency · 2026-09-08 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026060806/a2026barclaysrelease.htm

[10] PM 8-K filed 2026-09-08 · full-year adjusted EPS range · 2026-09-08 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026060806/a2026barclaysrelease.htm

[11] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · organic revenue, operating income and leverage targets · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[12] Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance 2026-07-27 · FactSet 3Q26 consensus cited by Barron's · 2026-07-27 · Insider Monkey · https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-did-philip-morris-pm-184111124.html

[13] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 combustibles pricing and share · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[14] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2026 full-year forecast assumptions as of July 22 · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[15] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 1H26 segment shipment table · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[16] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 adjusted gross margin by segment · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[17] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 U.S. adjusted OCI · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[18] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 U.S. segment and ZYN plans · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[19] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 HTU shipments and adjusted IMS · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[20] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 Japan adjusted IMS and category share · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[21] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · markets and Marlboro share of volume · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[22] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Swedish Match and U.S. IQOS rights · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[23] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · 2023-2025 net revenues by product category · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[24] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 net revenues by product category · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[25] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · segment realignment effective 2026 · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[26] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · segment measure changed to gross profit · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[27] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 International Smoke-Free revenue and gross profit · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[28] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 segment shipment, revenue and gross profit table · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[29] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 U.S. segment revenue and gross profit · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[30] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · distribution and sales channels · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[31] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · two distributors above 10 percent of revenue · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[32] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · leaf and direct materials sourcing · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[33] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · cost of sales composition · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[34] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Kentucky ZYN facility concentration · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[35] PM 8-K filed 2026-08-24 · contract manufacturing arrangement with Altria · 2026-08-24 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026058513/a2026-08x24pressrelease.htm

[36] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · 2023-2025 segment revenue and operating income · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[37] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · 2025 net earnings, EPS and excise tax · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[38] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · 2025 shipment volume by category · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[39] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · 2025 net revenue growth drivers · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[40] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · excise tax collected on products · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[41] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · 2025 operating cash flow and working capital · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[42] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · 2025 capital expenditures and 2026 plan · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[43] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · 2025 dividends paid · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[44] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · total debt and currency sensitivity · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[45] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 consolidated variance analysis · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[46] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · RBH impairment · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[47] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 1H26 operating cash flow · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[48] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · total debt at June 30, 2026 · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[49] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · cash and Russia cash at June 30, 2026 · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[50] PM 8-K filed 2026-09-18 · dividend raised to $1.60 per quarter · 2026-09-18 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026062621/september2026dividend.htm

[51] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · net revenues and cost definitions · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[52] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 price, volume and cost variances by segment · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[53] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · distributor inventory movements distort shipments · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[54] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 adjusted operating income and cost variance · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[55] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2026 operating cash flow and capex plan · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[56] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 1H26 dividends paid · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[57] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · international market size and share · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[58] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · competitors · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[59] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 IQOS share and adjusted IMS · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[60] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · competitors marketing pouches with pending PMTAs · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[61] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · FDA enforcement guidance on unauthorized pouches · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[62] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Japan multi-year excise plan · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[63] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · Japan excise harmonization steps · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[64] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · EU flavor ban on heated tobacco · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[65] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 Europe adjusted IMS and share · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[66] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · Germany heated tobacco surcharge · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[67] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 1H26 International Combustibles revenue and gross profit · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[68] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Russia and Ukraine exposure · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[69] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · 2025 oral SFP cans in Americas · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[70] PM 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 1H26 U.S. segment revenue and gross profit · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049493/pm-20260630.htm

[71] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · Americas 2025 pricing pressure from ZYN promotions · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[72] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · third-quarter EPS forecast as of July 22 · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[73] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 1H26 adjusted diluted EPS · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[74] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 1H26 adjusted operating income and cost variance · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[75] Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance 2026-07-27 · Why Did Philip Morris (PM) Rise After Cutting Its 2026 Profit Forecast Again? · 2026-07-27 · Insider Monkey · https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-did-philip-morris-pm-184111124.html

[76] PM 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · Middle East conflict cost assumption · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026049107/earningsreleasepm-ex991xq2.htm

[77] PM 10-K filed 2026-02-06 · cash held in Russia · 2026-02-06 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413329/000162828026005939/pm-20251231.htm

[78] Reuters via BNN Bloomberg 2026-07-22 · Philip Morris to lift Zyn investment, cigarette demand drives earnings beat · 2026-07-22 · Reuters · https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2026/07/22/philip-morris-cuts-profit-forecast-again-ramps-up-investment-in-zyn/