[CME] CME Group: Q3 2026 Earnings Hinge on Rate per Contract

CME Group runs the world's most actively traded futures and options exchanges, and its clearing house clears, settles and guarantees those contracts as well as cleared swaps[1]. CME Group Q3 2026 earnings are due before the market opens on 2026-10-21, covering the third quarter of 2026, ending September 30, 2026, with an investor call at 7:30 a.m. Central Time the same day[2]. In the second quarter of 2026, the latest period disclosed, average daily volume was 29.84 million contracts, down 1% from a year earlier[3]; revenue was $1,706 million, up only 1%, with clearing and transaction fees down 3% to $1,353 million and market data revenue up 20% to $238.1 million[4]; adjusted earnings per share rose 1% to $2.99[5]. CME gives no revenue or earnings guidance, but it publishes volume every month: July average daily volume was 27.0 million contracts, up 23% and the highest July on record[6], and August was 29.7 million contracts, up 6% and the second-highest August on record[7]. According to Zacks, management reaffirmed on the second-quarter call that full-year 2026 adjusted operating expenses excluding license fees would be about $1.695 billion, with the adjusted effective tax rate at the low end of a 23.5% to 24.5% range[8]. The seven analysts compiled by Nasdaq put third-quarter consensus earnings per share at $2.96, within a range of $2.83 to $3.15[9], and the seven analysts compiled by Drillr put average third-quarter revenue at $1,692 million, within a range of $1,682 million to $1,712 million[10].

Three things are worth watching in this report. The first is the average rate per contract, because volume is largely public before the results date: July and August, weighted by trading days, averaged about 28.3 million contracts, roughly 12% above the 25.32 million of the third quarter of 2025[11]. The real unknown is whether the rate holds the second quarter's $0.678 and moves toward the $0.702 of a year earlier[12], since that decides how much fee revenue the volume recovery produces, and the pricing notice CME sent clients on August 11 did not state its content or effective date in the 8-K[13]. The second is how fast market data grows once one-off catch-up billing is removed, because the second quarter's $238.1 million included about $7 million of audit catch-up payments[14], and whether the third quarter can match that figure shows how solid this volume-independent revenue really is. The third is expenses and margin, because the operating margin already fell from 66.7% to 64.9% in the second quarter[15] and the year-ago comparison for the third quarter is easy; if the margin still fails to recover in such a quarter, the argument that rising costs are only a base effect weakens.

Company Background and Business Structure

CME Group is a holding company formed from four long-established exchanges, headquartered in Chicago and listed on Nasdaq. It owns Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), which joined in 2007, and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Commodity Exchange (COMEX), acquired in 2008; in 2018 it bought NEX Group, which brought the BrokerTec electronic U.S. Treasury platform and the EBS spot foreign exchange platform. CME Group reported 2025 revenue of $6,521 million[16] and net income of $4,044 million[17].

The company has a single reportable segment and three classes of revenue, of which clearing and transaction fees are by far the largest. That class was $5,281 million in 2025, about 81% of revenue[16]: clients trade futures and options on the CME Globex electronic platform and pay a fee per contract on a round-turn basis, while the clearing house acts as counterparty to every trade and collects a clearing fee; the class also includes cash markets fees from BrokerTec and EBS, which were $73.9 million in the second quarter of 2026, and interest rate swap clearing fees of $24.3 million[18]. The second class is market data and information services, $803 million in 2025, billed monthly by the number of devices and subscribers[19]. The third class is other revenue, $436 million in 2025, which includes custody fees on collateral deposited by clearing firms, co-location and access fees.

By product line, interest rate and equity index contracts generate the most fee revenue, and the client base is mainly institutional. In the second quarter of 2026 interest rate contracts produced $433 million of fees, equity indexes $324 million, energy $187 million, agricultural commodities $184 million, metals $77 million and foreign exchange $50 million[20]. Clients include professional traders, banks, asset managers, hedge funds, commodity producers and merchants and central banks, plus individuals who arrive through retail brokers; management said on the second-quarter call that 94% of first-half 2026 volume came from institutions and 6% from individuals[14]. By geography, non-U.S. average daily volume was 9.1 million contracts in the second quarter, the third-highest quarterly level in the company's history[8].

Below operating income, CME has two further recurring income streams tied to its balance sheet and its equity investments. The first comes from cash margin posted by clearing firms, a balance of $158.1 billion at the end of June 2026[21], of which $138.5 billion sat in the company's account at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago[22]; CME reinvests this cash, returns most of the interest to clearing firms and keeps a small share. The second is income from equity-method investments, mainly the S&P Dow Jones Indices joint venture, which was $98 million in the second quarter; CME owns 51% of the FanDuel Prediction Markets joint venture but also accounts for it under the equity method rather than consolidating it[23], and it sold another joint venture, OSTTRA, in 2025 for a gain of $306 million.

The company is in a management transition, which frames the operating agenda for the coming year. Terry Duffy, chairman and chief executive for more than 25 years, will become executive chairman on March 1, 2027, when Lynne Fitzpatrick, now president and chief financial officer, becomes chief executive and joins the board[24]; chief accounting officer Jack Tobin will become chief financial officer in March 2027[25].

Financial History and Current Position

Revenue and profit grew steadily over the past five fiscal years, and volume set a record every year. Revenue rose from $4,690 million in 2021 to $6,521 million in 2025, and operating income rose from $2,645 million to $4,230 million. The 6% revenue growth in 2025 had three sources: average daily volume of 28.13 million contracts, up 6%[26]; an average rate per contract of $0.696, against $0.692 a year earlier[27]; and market data revenue of $803 million, up 13%[16]. Net income of $4,044 million that year included the $306 million gain on the sale of OSTTRA[17]; operating cash flow was $4,277 million[28], cash dividends were $3,933 million, and the company repurchased $266 million of stock[29].

Almost all of the growth in the first half of 2026 came from the first quarter. First-half revenue was $3,586 million, up 8%, net income was $2,196 million and diluted earnings per share were $6.06, up 12%[4], with operating cash flow of $2,207 million[15]. First-quarter average daily volume was 36.2 million contracts, up 22% and an all-time quarterly high[30], and first-quarter revenue of $1,880 million was also a record[31].

The second quarter, by contrast, combined flat volume with rising costs. Average daily volume was 29.84 million contracts, down 1%; revenue was $1,706 million, up only 1%, with clearing and transaction fees down 3% to $1,353 million and market data up 20% to $238 million[4]. Total expenses rose 6% to $599 million, the operating margin fell from 66.7% to 64.9%[15], and adjusted earnings per share rose 1% to $2.99[5].

The balance sheet is light, and most of the cash the business earns goes to shareholders. At the end of June 2026 the company held $2,144 million of cash and $3,424 million of long-term debt[21]; in the second quarter it paid about $468 million of dividends and repurchased $695 million of shares[32], leaving $1.5 billion of its $3 billion buyback authorization at the end of June[33]. In the first quarter it also paid an annual variable dividend of $6.15 per share, bringing dividends for that quarter to about $2.7 billion[30]; the annual report put planned 2026 capital expenditure at only about $85 million[34].

Operating Model

CME's revenue is roughly volume multiplied by the rate per contract, plus two revenue streams that do not move with volume. Futures and options clearing and transaction fees equal average daily volume times trading days times the average rate per contract: in the second quarter of 2026, 29.84 million contracts a day over an estimated 62 trading days at $0.678 each comes to about $1,254 million, and adding $74 million of cash markets fees and $24 million of interest rate swap clearing fees gives the $1,353 million of clearing and transaction fees[18]. The relationship is positive and has no lag, because fees are collected when the trade happens.

Volume is set by clients' hedging and trading demand, which the company cannot control. The annual report says plainly that periods of heightened uncertainty tend to raise volume, because clients need to hedge or speculate on moves in interest rates, oil and equities[35]; when volatility subsides, volume falls back. Interest rate contract volume fell year over year in the second quarter, which the 10-Q attributes to lower market volatility[36], as it does for energy contracts[37], while equity index volume rose on market shifts in the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000[38].

The rate per contract moves against volume, and that is the key to understanding fee revenue. The annual report lists four factors beyond volume that influence clearing and transaction fees[39]: the fee schedule and volume tiers, under which heavier trading lowers the unit price; product mix, since energy, metals and agricultural contracts earn $1.1 to $1.4 each, interest rate contracts less than $0.5 and micro contracts less still; trading venue; and the split between members and non-members, where members pay lower rates and a higher member share reduces revenue[40]. That is why the record-volume first quarter had a rate of only $0.652, and why the second quarter's $0.678 was still below the $0.690 of a year earlier[12]; the 10-Q cites more micro contract volume in equities, energy and metals and a higher member share of trading, only partly offset by the price increase that took effect on April 1[18].

The other two revenue streams do not rise and fall with volume and act as stabilizers. Market data is billed monthly by device and subscriber and was $238 million in the second quarter; the 10-Q attributes the growth to higher usage of certain products, demand from new customer segments and price increases[41], and the two largest resellers contributed about a quarter of the total in the first half of 2026, compared with about 30% in 2025[19]. Other revenue was $116 million in the second quarter, mainly collateral custody fees and data center access fees.

Most of an exchange's costs are fixed, so the gap between revenue growth and expense growth almost directly sets the direction of the margin. In the second quarter compensation was $234 million, technology $83 million and depreciation plus amortization of acquired intangibles $84 million, none of which moves in step with volume; the only clearly variable item is license fees, $109 million in the quarter, because futures on S&P, Nasdaq and Russell indexes pay the index owners by volume[4]. As a result the high-volume first quarter had an operating margin of about 70%, while in the second quarter revenue grew 1%, expenses grew 6% and the margin fell to 64.9%; the 10-Q says higher technology expense came mainly from third-party services supporting the Google Cloud migration[42]. Adjusted operating expenses on the company's own basis were $521.2 million in the second quarter, against $491.2 million a year earlier[43], or $412 million excluding license fees[44].

The interest CME keeps on margin cash, reported below operating income, carries no matching cost and depends on balances and spread rather than volume. In the second quarter CME earned $1,388.8 million on reinvested cash collateral[45], distributed $1,265.7 million to clearing firms[46] and retained $123.1 million, about 9% of that quarter's pre-tax income of $1,328 million[4]. The chain runs as follows: market volatility and open interest set the cash balances clearing firms post, the federal funds rate sets gross reinvestment earnings, the rate CME pays back to clearing firms sets the distribution, and the difference is booked as non-operating income and flows straight into pre-tax income.

The business ties up almost no capital, so net income is close to distributable cash, and the company pays it out in three layers. The first is a regular quarterly dividend, $1.30 per share in 2026, targeted at 50% to 60% of the prior year's cash earnings[34]; the second is an annual variable dividend paid each first quarter based on the prior year's results and cash needs, $6.15 per share in March 2026; the third is the share buyback added at the end of 2025, under which the company repurchased about $1.23 billion in the first half[33]. Note that the $158.1 billion of performance bonds and guaranty fund contributions on the balance sheet belongs to clearing firms and appears in equal amounts as an asset and a liability; it is not cash the company can use[21].

The model has four blind spots that readers should keep in mind when the third-quarter report arrives. CME does not disclose revenue or rates for micro contracts, nor the actual member share of volume, so the causes of rate changes can only be inferred from the 10-Q's commentary; and prediction-market event contracts are excluded from reported volume and rate, with the joint venture carried under the equity method, so its contribution to revenue and profit is not yet visible. In addition, audit catch-up payments in market data and professional subscriber growth are disclosed only verbally on earnings calls, and for margin interest the company discloses only gross earnings and gross distributions, not the spread or average balances, so the outcome can be tracked but not split into volume and price.

Industry and Competitive Position

Futures exchanges compete on liquidity and margin efficiency rather than price, and that is CME's moat. Once trading and open interest in a contract concentrate at one exchange, bid-ask spreads are tightest there and positions in different products at the same clearing house can offset each other for margin purposes, which makes it hard for clients to leave. CME holds that home-market position in U.S. interest rate futures, equity index futures such as the S&P 500, WTI crude oil, grains and gold, and the company says it saved clients more than $95 billion of margin per day on average in the second quarter[5].

The competitors named in the annual report fall into established peers and new entrants, and the latter are the focus of the 2026 debate. The peers are Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Cboe, Euronext, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing and Deutsche Börse, and the new entrants are the newly launched FMX Futures Exchange together with digital asset platforms and prediction markets[47]. The most closely watched new threat is the perpetual futures offered by crypto platforms: management's position is that core institutional clients do not need the product, and the company is in litigation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over its legal classification, while also saying it could list the product at any time from a technical standpoint[14]. The available record supports only a qualitative comparison, because it contains no market-share or fee data for the same products across exchanges, so the size of CME's advantage over its peers cannot be quantified.

CME's own response is to expand toward retail clients and new products, but none of these new businesses has separately disclosed revenue yet. Steps already taken or announced include micro contracts, the prediction markets app run jointly with FanDuel, 24/7 cryptocurrency futures, single stock futures planned for late July 2026, a U.S. Treasury clearing service planned for launch during 2026[48] and GPU compute futures planned for later this year[8]. Whether they bring net new business without pulling down the average rate has to be judged through the volume and rate lines together.

Core Debates

Volume is back, but will CME keep collecting less per contract?

This debate matters because clearing and transaction fees are nearly 80% of revenue, and within them only the rate is a genuine unknown in the third-quarter report. Volume is published every month and already known to the market; the rate appears only in quarterly results, and over the past year it has moved against volume: first-quarter volume jumped 22%, yet the rate fell from $0.686 a year earlier to $0.652, and fee revenue grew only about 15%[30]. In the transmission chain, market volatility and hedging demand lift average daily volume; as volume rises, volume tiers, the member share and the micro contract share all rise and push the average rate down, while the April 1 price increase and a higher share of higher-priced energy, metals and agricultural contracts pull it up; because costs are largely fixed, at second-quarter volume every $0.01 change in the rate is worth about $18.5 million of quarterly revenue, nearly all of it profit.

The current evidence can be read two ways, and the numeric baseline is the second quarter's $0.678. Second-quarter average daily volume was 29.84 million contracts, down 1%; the rate was $0.678, against $0.690 a year earlier; and clearing and transaction fees fell 3% to $1,353 million[4]. The benign reading is that micro contracts bring in retail clients who did not exist before, so the revenue is incremental even at a low rate, and tier discounts reverse automatically when volume eases. The structural reading is that the micro and member shares only ever rise, so the center of the average rate is drifting lower and price increases can offset only part of it.

The third quarter is a test, although the pricing notice makes the outcome harder to judge in advance. Weighted July and August volume of about 28.3 million contracts is below the second quarter, so under the benign reading the rate should recover; if it stays below $0.678, the structural reading looks more likely. The points to watch are whether the third-quarter rate is at least $0.678 and moves toward the $0.702 of the third quarter of 2025, how many percentage points separate growth in clearing and transaction fees from growth in average daily volume, and whether the 10-Q attributes the rate change to micro contracts and member share, to product mix, or to changes in the fee schedule and incentive programs. The observable falsifiers are volume growth of more than 10% alongside a rate below $0.652, or a decision by the company to cut rates or raise market-maker incentives in response to FMX, perpetual futures or other competition.

How much of the 20% growth in market data is one-off catch-up billing?

This debate matters because market data is CME's only large revenue line that does not rise and fall with volume, so it decides whether profit holds up in quarters when volume is flat. Management says the line has grown year over year for 33 consecutive quarters; in the second quarter transaction fees fell 3% and revenue still grew 1%, entirely because market data added about $40 million[20]. In the transmission chain, the annual price increase, more professional subscribers, derived data licensing and growth in simulated trading accounts lift recurring revenue, while audits of client usage produce one-off catch-up payments that swing from quarter to quarter; the marginal cost of this revenue is very low, so nearly all of the increase reaches operating income.

The current evidence shows growth is still strong after removing catch-up payments, but the split between price and quantity is not visible. Second-quarter market data revenue was $238.1 million, up 20%; management added on the call that professional subscribers grew 3.5% from the prior quarter, simulated trading accounts grew 56% year over year, and the quarter included about $7 million of audit catch-up payments, against about $3.8 million in the first quarter[14]. Excluding catch-up payments, the second quarter was about $231 million, still more than 15% above a year earlier. The alternative possibility is that price increases contributed more than subscriber growth, and since prices rise only once a year, growth would slow naturally once the base resets in early 2027.

The unresolved question is how much of the growth can repeat, because the company does not split price from quantity and subscriber growth is the only indirect guide. The points to watch are whether third-quarter market data revenue is at least $238.1 million, the amount of catch-up payments management discloses and whether revenue excluding them exceeds about $231 million, and whether professional subscribers keep growing from the prior quarter. The observable falsifiers are a sequential revenue decline of more than $7 million, which would show that the second quarter's high growth came mainly from one-off catch-up billing, or cuts in device counts by large resellers and institutional clients.

In quarters without record volume, will CME's costs keep outrunning its revenue?

This debate matters because the appeal of an exchange is fixed costs and a high margin, so once revenue stops growing, every increase in expenses comes straight out of profit. CME's operating margin has long been around 65%; in the second quarter revenue rose only about $14 million, expenses rose about $36 million, and operating income fell by about $22 million[4]. In the transmission chain, annual pay increases and overseas hiring lift compensation, the Google Cloud migration entering the trading-system phase lifts third-party technology services, and equity index volume lifts volume-based index license fees; together these make up adjusted operating expenses, and the margin rises when revenue grows faster than expenses and falls when it does not.

The current evidence shows costs rising, but the base-effect explanation has not been ruled out. Second-quarter total expenses rose 6% to $599.1 million, within which technology rose 17.5% to $83.3 million, license fees rose 13.4% to $109.1 million and compensation rose 5.4% to $233.5 million[4]; adjusted operating expenses on the company's basis were $521.2 million, up 6.1%, after $511.7 million and growth of 7.8% in the first quarter[31]. The alternative explanation is that this is only a volume base effect: second-quarter 2025 volume was a record at the time, and the first-half 2026 operating margin of 67.4% was in fact higher than the 67.1% of a year earlier[15]. Based on the full-year target of about $1.695 billion relayed by Zacks and the roughly $817 million already incurred in the first half, the second half implies about $878 million, more than the first half[8].

The third quarter has an easy year-ago comparison, which makes it a good way to separate the two explanations. Average daily volume in the third quarter of 2025 was only 25.32 million contracts[11], so if the margin still fails to recover in such a quarter, the base-effect argument does not hold. The points to watch are whether third-quarter adjusted operating expenses exceed $535 million and whether they grow more slowly than revenue, whether the GAAP operating margin returns above 66.7%, and whether technology expense growth slows from 17.5% along with what the company says about progress on the Google Cloud migration. The observable falsifiers are revenue growth alongside an operating margin still below 64.9%, or a delayed migration timetable that extends the period of running old and new systems in parallel.

Will Fed rate cuts erode what CME earns on its clients' margin cash?

This debate matters because the retained share of margin interest has no matching cost, so every dollar lost comes directly out of pre-tax income. CME holds about $158.1 billion of cash margin for clearing firms; the retained income was about $411 million in 2025[17] and $123 million in the second quarter of 2026, about 9% of pre-tax income. Intuition says lower interest rates should compress this income, and if that is right, it would weigh on earnings per share throughout a rate-cutting cycle.

Second-quarter data ran against that intuition, and the numeric baseline is the $123.1 million retained. Gross reinvestment earnings fell from $1,487.6 million to $1,388.8 million, which the 10-Q attributes to lower rates of return[45]; but interest distributed to clearing firms fell by more, from $1,374.5 million to $1,265.7 million, so the retained amount actually rose from $113.1 million to $123.1 million, and its share of gross earnings rose from 7.6% to 8.9%[46]. That suggests CME earns something closer to a fixed spread on balances. The alternative explanation is that the second-quarter improvement was a temporary result of higher balances and the timing of changes to the rate paid back to clearing firms.

The available data cannot distinguish these two cases, because the company does not disclose average balances or the spread, and one or two more quarters are needed. The points to watch are whether the third-quarter retained amount is at least $123.1 million, whether its share of gross earnings stays near 8.9%, and how cash performance bonds and guaranty fund balances at the end of September compare with $158.1 billion. The observable falsifiers are a retained amount below $113.1 million without a fall in balances, which would indicate spread compression, or clearing firms swapping cash collateral for Treasury securities so that cash balances fall by more than 10%.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is that new products and new entrants bypass CME's home markets while regulation does not always work in its favor. Perpetual futures on crypto platforms, prediction markets and the newly launched FMX Futures Exchange are all competing for incremental clients; management says the CFTC halted a 24/7 small crude oil contract that the company had self-certified, and the company has gone to court over the legal classification of perpetual futures[14]. The exposed line is clearing and transaction fees, 81% of revenue: in the near term the direct exposure is the 6% of volume from retail clients and newer growth areas such as cryptocurrency and micro contracts, and the long-term risk is that liquidity in interest rate and equity index futures is diverted. The concern weakens if the third-quarter 10-Q does not escalate its competition and regulatory risk language, the company does not cut rates on major products because of competition, and micro and cryptocurrency contract volumes keep growing year over year.

The second risk is simultaneous management change during a period when several large projects are under way. The chief executive and chief financial officer will both change in March 2027, with Jack Tobin, who had been due to retire in October 2026, staying on to become chief financial officer, while the company is also carrying out the Google Cloud migration, the launch of Treasury clearing and its retail expansion, and the annual report warns that a substantial part of working capital may be at risk if a clearing firm defaults[49]. The exposed item is capital return, which is at the discretion of management and the board: cash dividends were $3,933 million in 2025, first-half 2026 dividends were about $3.17 billion and buybacks about $1.23 billion, and $1.5 billion of the buyback authorization remains[33]. The risk does not materialize if the transition follows the announced timetable, new management keeps the framework of a regular dividend plus an annual variable dividend plus buybacks, and Treasury clearing launches during 2026.

The third risk is that the center of the average rate per contract drifts lower year after year, so that record volume does not produce matching revenue growth. The drivers are a steadily rising share of micro contracts and member trading, combined with larger incentives offered in response to new exchanges and crypto platforms. At second-quarter 2026 volume, every $0.01 fall in the average rate is worth about $18.5 million of revenue a quarter, or about $74 million a year, with almost no matching cost to cut[12]. This view is falsified if the third-quarter average rate is at least $0.678 and the 10-Q makes no mention of rate cuts or new incentives.

The fourth risk is that strong market data growth depends on annual price increases and one-off audit catch-up payments while customer concentration remains meaningful. The two largest resellers accounted for about 25% of this revenue in the first half of 2026, or about $116 million of the $462.2 million first-half total[41]; if clients reduce device counts or switch to alternative data sources, growth in this line would be harder to restore than volume. The exposed line is market data revenue, $238.1 million in the second quarter and about 14% of total revenue. The concern weakens if third-quarter market data revenue is at least $238.1 million and the share of the two largest resellers disclosed in the 10-Q has not risen.

The fifth risk is that the Google Cloud migration, now in its most complex trading-system phase, requires old and new systems to run in parallel for longer than planned. The annual report had anticipated completing the migration of applications supporting clearing by the end of the first quarter of 2026 and then decommissioning the legacy systems[50]; technology expense in the first half of 2026 was $159.9 million, up 17%, after technology support services expense had already risen by $27.5 million in 2025[51]. Every additional $10 million of adjusted operating expenses equals about 0.9% of second-quarter operating income, and a trading or clearing outage during the migration would also hit volume directly. The risk eases materially if third-quarter technology expense growth is below 17.5% and the company confirms that the clearing applications have migrated and the legacy systems are decommissioned.

The sixth risk is that lower interest rates, or a shift by clearing firms toward non-cash collateral, reduce the margin interest CME retains. Retained income was about $411 million in 2025 and about $245 million in the first half of 2026, and the second quarter's $123.1 million was about 9.3% of pre-tax income; on a cash margin balance of $158.1 billion, each basis point of retained spread is worth about $16 million a year[21]. The concern does not apply this quarter if the third-quarter retained amount is at least $123.1 million and period-end cash margin balances are at least 90% of the end-of-June level.

What to Watch Next

The list below sets out, for each core debate, the metric to check, the current baseline and the condition that would confirm or falsify the present reading.

• Rate per contract: the baseline is $0.678 in the second quarter of 2026, clearing and transaction fees of $1,353 million and average daily volume of 25.32 million contracts in the third quarter of 2025. Watch whether the rate is at least $0.678 and moves toward $0.702, the gap between fee growth and volume growth, and the 10-Q's attribution. Volume growth above 10% with a rate below $0.652, or rate cuts and larger incentives, would confirm a lower rate center.
• Quality of market data growth: the baseline is $238.1 million in the second quarter, including about $7 million of catch-up payments. Watch whether revenue is at least $238.1 million, whether it exceeds about $231 million excluding catch-up payments, and whether professional subscribers keep growing sequentially. A sequential decline of more than $7 million would show that the high growth came mainly from one-off items.
• Expenses and margin: the baseline is adjusted operating expenses of $521.2 million, a GAAP operating margin of 64.9% and technology expense of $83.3 million in the second quarter. Watch whether expenses exceed $535 million and grow more slowly than revenue, whether the margin returns above 66.7%, and whether technology expense growth falls below 17.5%. Revenue growth with a margin still below 64.9%, or a delayed migration, would undercut the base-effect explanation.
• Retained margin interest: the baseline is $123.1 million retained in the second quarter, 8.9% of gross earnings, and a cash balance of $158.1 billion at the end of June. Watch whether the retained amount is at least $123.1 million, whether the share stays near 8.9%, and the change in balances at the end of September. A retained amount below $113.1 million without lower balances, or a cash balance decline of more than 10%, would point to pressure on this income.
• Competition and regulation: the baseline is that 94% of first-half volume came from institutions. Watch whether the 10-Q escalates its risk language, whether prices change because of competition, and whether volumes in new products keep growing year over year. A cut in rates on major products in response to perpetual futures or FMX would confirm the competitive risk.

Conclusion

CME's business is driven by the product of volume and the rate per contract, supplemented by steadily growing market data and cost-free margin interest, and the central unresolved relationship today is the opposite movement of volume and rate. In 2025 the company generated revenue of $6,521 million and operating cash flow of $4,277 million, and returned nearly all of it to shareholders through dividends and buybacks; in the first half of 2026 revenue grew 8%, but in the second quarter volume fell 1%, the rate slipped from $0.690 to $0.678, expenses rose 6% and the operating margin fell to 64.9%. Third-quarter volume is already largely public, with July and August averaging about 28.3 million contracts on a weighted basis, about 12% above a year earlier[7], so the question this report must answer is at what rate that volume turns into revenue, and whether revenue growth can again outpace expense growth.

The outside readings published after the second-quarter results both appeared on the day of the release and mainly relay company disclosure; they emphasize different things but do not conflict. Zacks characterized the quarter as a beat driven by market data, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.99 coming in 2.7% above the $2.91 estimate compiled by Zacks and revenue of $1.70 billion above $1.68 billion; it attributed the rise in the rate from 65.2 cents in the first quarter to 67.8 cents to lower volume tiering and a lower member mix, which does not contradict the 10-Q's year-over-year account and instead illustrates that the rate moves against volume, so the third quarter has to be measured against both the sequential and the year-over-year benchmark[8]. MarketBeat's call highlights show that analysts asked most not about results but about perpetual futures: Duffy said core institutional clients do not want CME to list the product, and management answered the diversion concern by setting first-half growth of 44% in its cryptocurrency futures and options and daily trading of $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion against about $270 million at the Bitcoin perpetual product Kalshi introduced in July; the same summary records the roughly $7 million of market data catch-up payments, about 525 million cumulative event contracts in prediction markets and July volume tracking 18% ahead of a year earlier[44]. Both pieces organize what the company said rather than independently verifying it, and they are not a majority opinion; no skeptical long-form piece that could be verified word for word was found in this period, so outside coverage leaves a gap on the two concerns of a structurally lower rate and competitive diversion.

The later observations that would materially strengthen or weaken the current understanding come down to a set of signals appearing together. If the third-quarter rate is at least $0.678 and fee growth is close to volume growth, market data excluding catch-up payments stays above about $231 million, the operating margin returns above 66.7% and retained margin interest is at least $123.1 million, then the second-quarter margin decline looks more like a temporary effect of a high base. Conversely, if volume grows more than 10% while the rate falls below $0.652, revenue grows while the margin stays below 64.9%, market data declines sequentially by more than $7 million, or the company cuts rates on major products in response to perpetual futures and FMX, then the explanations of a falling rate center and rigid cost growth gain the upper hand.

Sources

[1] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · business overview · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[2] Drillr earnings calendar · CME earnings call scheduled 2026-10-21 (calendar last updated 2026-09-20); CME Group press release of 2026-09-04 confirms results before the market opens on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, with the investor call at 7:30 a.m. Central Time · 2026-09-20 · Drillr earnings calendar / CME Group press release

[3] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 average daily volume by product line and venue · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[4] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 consolidated statements of income · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[5] CME 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 results press release · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[6] CME Group press release 2026-08-04 · July 2026 average daily volume · 2026-08-04 · CME Group · https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cme-group-july-volume-hits-new-record-of-27-million-contracts-up-23-year-over-year-302842336.html

[7] CME Group press release 2026-09-02 · August 2026 average daily volume · 2026-09-02 · CME Group · https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cme-group-reports-second-highest-august-adv-of-29-7-million-contracts-302867202.html

[8] Zacks Equity Research 2026-07-22 · CME Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record Market Data Growth · 2026-07-22 · Zacks Equity Research · https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:650216e04094b:0-cme-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-on-record-market-data-growth/

[9] Nasdaq CME earnings forecast (accessed 2026-09-20) · Sep 2026 quarter consensus EPS · 2026-09-20 · Nasdaq (data from Zacks) · https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/cme/earnings

[10] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-09-18) · 3Q26 revenue and EPS estimates · 2026-09-18 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[11] CME 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · quarterly average daily volume trend · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[12] CME 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · quarterly rate per contract trend · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[13] CME 8-K filed 2026-08-11 · notice of pricing changes · 2026-08-11 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[14] CME 2Q26 earnings call 2026-07-22 · Drillr structured summary · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://investor.cmegroup.com/events-and-presentations

[15] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 financial highlights · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[16] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 revenues by line · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[17] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 collateral reinvestment earnings and OSTTRA gain · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[18] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 rate per contract drivers and cash markets fees · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[19] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · market data revenue drivers and reseller concentration · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[20] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 revenue by product line · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[21] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · balance sheet at June 30, 2026 · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[22] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · cash collateral held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[23] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · FanDuel prediction markets joint venture · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[24] CME 8-K filed 2026-06-17 · CEO succession · 2026-06-17 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[25] CME 8-K filed 2026-09-09 · CFO succession · 2026-09-09 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[26] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 average daily volume by product line · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[27] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 futures and options rate per contract · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[28] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 sources and uses of cash · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[29] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 financing cash flows · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[30] CME 8-K filed 2026-04-22 · 1Q26 volume, rate per contract and capital return · 2026-04-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[31] CME 8-K filed 2026-04-22 · 1Q26 adjusted operating income reconciliation · 2026-04-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[32] CME 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · cash, debt and capital return in 2Q26 · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[33] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · share repurchase program · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[34] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · 2026 capital expenditure plan and dividend policy · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[35] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · volume depends on conditions beyond its control · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[36] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 interest rate volume commentary · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[37] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 energy volume commentary · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[38] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 equity index and crypto volume commentary · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[39] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · how clearing and transaction fees are driven · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[40] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · member mix and cash markets fees · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[41] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 market data revenue drivers · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[42] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 operating expense drivers · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[43] CME 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · 2Q26 adjusted operating income reconciliation · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001156375&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[44] MarketBeat 2026-07-22 · CME Group Q2 Earnings Call Highlights · 2026-07-22 · MarketBeat · https://www.tradingview.com/news/marketbeat:1b9990353094b:0-cme-group-q2-earnings-call-highlights/

[45] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 earnings on reinvested cash collateral · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[46] CME 10-Q filed 2026-07-24 · 2Q26 interest distributed to clearing firms · 2026-07-24 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000047/

[47] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · competition in the derivatives exchange business · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[48] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · securities clearing launch plan · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[49] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · clearing firm credit risk · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[50] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · Google Cloud partnership and migration · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/

[51] CME 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · FY2025 operating expense changes · 2026-02-26 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156375/000115637526000009/