Qatar LNG Expansion Delay Hits Chiyoda and Flex LNG

On September 21, 2026, QatarEnergy CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said the first North Field East liquefaction train will start only in the first half of 2027, and that equipment for the later trains and the 2028 North Field South start cannot enter Qatar during the Strait of Hormuz crisis. This Qatar LNG expansion delay means less new supply in 2027 and 2028 than planned [1][2][3].

Al-Kaabi said North Field East "is going very well," with the first train due in the first half of next year "and then possibly a few more trains from NFE to come next year." He added that "some of the equipment that will not be able to enter due to crisis over the Strait of Hormuz, if this continues, could delay some of these projects" [1]. OEDigital reported North Field South had been due in 2028 and that equipment still could not reach Qatar [2]. A day earlier Al-Kaabi had said several projects were delayed, without dates [4].

Background

LNG is liquefied natural gas: gas cooled to about minus 160 degrees Celsius, about 600 times smaller in volume, so it can be shipped by sea. A plant is built as independent "trains," each a complete refrigeration unit.

Qatar's North Field is one of the world's largest gas fields. North Field East adds four trains of about 8 million tonnes a year each, 32 million tonnes in total, for $28.75 billion; North Field South adds 16 million tonnes [5][6]. North Field East was originally due in 2026.

Qatar sits deep inside the Persian Gulf, so all its sea cargo passes Hormuz, and a train's turbines, compressors and heat exchangers can only arrive by sea [5]. About 17% of Qatar's existing liquefaction capacity has also been damaged in this crisis and may need up to three years to repair [2][5].

The onshore work belongs to a 50/50 joint venture of Japan's Chiyoda and France's Technip Energies under a lump-sum EPC contract, one fixed price for engineering, procurement and construction [6][7][8]. Under such terms the contractor carries the cost of a longer schedule first; recovery depends on the contract.

How the delay travels

The first link is volume: 32 million tonnes of North Field East plus 16 million tonnes of North Field South move back by a year or more [1][2][5]. The planned 2027-28 supply wave is now smaller.

The second link is price. Forward Asian and European gas prices for 2027-28 may hold a premium over an on-time Qatar scenario, and exporters with uncontracted or price-linked 2027-28 volumes may capture it. Cheniere Energy (LNG) said on its August call that unsold volumes were at a low level; its shares rose 2.5% on the day of the statement on volume about 1.45 times the 20-day average [11][16].

The third link is the contractor: revenue recognition slides and stranded equipment carries holding costs.

The fourth link is shipping. The industry expected 2027 cargo growth to absorb carriers now being delivered; the cargoes are late while the ships still arrive. QatarEnergy's roughly 128-ship newbuild program keeps delivering, and in July it sub-chartered out a 174,000 cubic meter carrier through the end of October [12][13][14]. Spot carrier rates have fallen from about $120,000 a day in the prior year's third quarter to about $30,000 [13].

Companies that may be affected

Chiyoda (6366.T), a Japanese engineering company, is half of the joint venture building the North Field East onshore facilities [7][8]. LNG plants were 54.8% of revenue in the fiscal year ended March 2025, with North Field East the largest job in the segment [9]. Work was suspended in the quarter ended March 2026 and resumed in June 2026 [7]. Revenue in the year ended March 2026 was ¥493.9 billion and operating income ¥82.1 billion including one-off items; the prior year's operating income was ¥24.4 billion [9]. Latest-quarter new orders were ¥31.0 billion, down 76.7% year over year, and backlog ¥560.9 billion [10]. A 6-to-12-month stretch with stranded equipment costing 3% to 5% of the remaining scope would be ¥5-12 billion, 20% to 50% of a normal year's operating income, unless recovered under force majeure. Repair work on the damaged capacity may run the other way. Market cap is ¥181.4 billion; Tokyo was closed on September 21, so the shares have not traded since [11].

Flex LNG (FLNG) owns 13 LNG carriers [12]. Flex Artemis and Flex Volunteer traded spot in the second quarter and come open at the end of the third quarter [12]. Spot round-trip rates are about $30,000 a day against a second-quarter fleet average of $86,100 [13]. The orderbook is about 285 vessels, roughly 38% of the fleet, and a significant share of 2026 orders have no employment contracts [12][13]. If the two ships earn spot rather than term rates through 2027, revenue could be about $33 million lower, close to 10% of 2025 revenue of $347.6 million and about 12% of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $255 million to $280 million [13][15]. Market cap is $1.73 billion; the shares fell 1.1% on September 21 on below-average volume [11].

How to verify

First the forward curve: whether 2027-28 JKM and TTF prices firm relative to 2026 after the statement.

November brings the first checkpoints. Flex LNG's third-quarter report will show whether the two ships were fixed on term or left on spot and at what rate, plus spot assessments for the 174,000 cubic meter class and Qatari deliveries and sub-lets. Chiyoda's second-quarter report in early November will show any prolongation, backlog reclassification or loss provision, or instead force majeure change orders.

The first train's start in H1 2027 will show whether the date slips again.

The chain breaks if Hormuz reopens durably in the fourth quarter of 2026 and QatarEnergy confirms multiple trains in 2027 and North Field South in 2028; if forward gas prices do not firm after the statement; if Chiyoda discloses full cost recovery under force majeure with no provision and larger repair revenue; or if longer US Gulf-to-Asia voyages lift carrier demand or Flex fixes both ships on multi-year term above $70,000 a day before year-end.

This piece only surfaces transmission chains that may be overlooked; it is not a stock recommendation.

Sources

[1] The Peninsula Qatar · 2026-09-21 · https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/21/09/2026/first-nfe-train-expected-to-come-online-in-first-half-of-2027 [2] OEDigital · 2026-09-21 · https://www.oedigital.com/news/543123-qatarenergy-s-lng-expansion-faces-delays-from-hormuz-crisis [3] Reuters · 2026-09-21 · https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatarenergy-says-hormuz-crisis-may-delay-lng-expansion-projects-2026-09-21/ [4] Sina Finance 7x24 · 2026-09-20 · https://finance.sina.cn/7x24/2026-09-20/detail-inisnwyr2439808.d.html [5] Offshore Technology · project profile · https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/north-field-expansion-project/ [6] LNG Prime · 2022-05-16 · https://lngprime.com/middle-east/technip-energies-chiyoda-moving-forward-with-qatari-lng-expansion-work/51546/ [7] Rigs & Barge World · 2026-05-30 · https://rigsbargeworld.com/chiyoda-to-resume-work-on-qatar-nfe-lng/ [8] Construction Review Online · 2026-09-21 · https://constructionreviewonline.com/28-75bn-north-field-east-expansion-targets-2027-start-up-as-qatar-lng-construction-faces-delays/ [9] Drillr financial_statements / company_segment · Chiyoda FY3/25-FY3/26 [10] note.com (kapiko) · 2026-08 · Chiyoda FY2026/3 analysis · https://note.com/python514/n/n87a5a9566e82 [11] Drillr price_volume_history / company_snapshot · 2026-09-21 [12] The Motley Fool · 2026-08-26 · Flex LNG Q2 2026 call · https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/26/flex-lng-flng-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/ [13] Drillr earning_call_summary · 2026-08-19 · Flex LNG Q2 2026 [14] Sina Finance 7x24 · 2026-07-27 · https://finance.sina.cn/7x24/2026-07-27/detail-inikfsuy8436704.d.html [15] Drillr financial_statements · FY2025 · Flex LNG [16] Drillr earning_call_summary · 2026-08-06 · Cheniere Energy Q2 2026