GMConsumer CyclicalAuto OEM·Sep 3, 2026·3 min read

[GM] General Motors Thesis 2026: EV Writedowns Mask Exceptional Free Cash Generation

GM FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $185.0B revenue (-1.3%). OpInc $2.91B (-77%, EV write-downs + restructuring + Cruise wind-down). Net income $2.70B (-55%); Diluted EPS $3.27. FCF +$11.07B (vs -$5.98B FY24). Capex $15.79B (-40% from $26.1B FY24). Buyback $6.04B; Div $657M. Total debt $130.3B. GMNA ~80% (Silverado/Sierra trucks). DB upgraded Hold→Buy ($83→$90); Wolfe upgrade PP→OP ($96); Benchmark $65→$90 (+$25 largest); UBS $102→$105; GS $104→$91 trim.

GM: FY25 Deep Dive

FY25 revenue $185.0B (-1.3%) — operating income $2.91B (-77% on EV write-downs + restructuring); net income $2.70B (-55%); diluted EPS $3.27. FCF turned positive +$11.07B (vs -$5.98B FY24) as capex moderated. Buyback $6.04B. Total debt $130.3B. Deutsche Bank upgraded Hold→Buy April 14; UBS $102→$105; Goldman $104→$91 trim. Mixed signals.

Key Takeaways

General Motors closed fiscal 2025 (calendar year ended December 31, 2025) at $185.0 billion of revenue, down 1.3% YoY. Operating income compressed -77% to $2.91 billion (from $12.78B FY24) on EV strategy write-downs, restructuring charges, and Cruise (autonomous unit) wind-down costs. Net income $2.70 billion (-55%); diluted EPS $3.27 (vs $6.37 FY24). Free cash flow turned strongly positive at +$11.07 billion (vs -$5.98B FY24) as capex moderated to $15.79 billion (-40% from $26.1B FY24). Capital allocation: $6.04B buybacks + $657M dividends = $6.70B return. Total debt $130.3B (held). Sell-side coverage in Feb-April 2026 window: Deutsche Bank upgraded Hold → Buy on April 14 ($83 → $90); Wolfe Research upgraded Peer Perform → Outperform March 25 ($96); UBS $102 → $105 (Buy); Benchmark $65 → $90 (Buy, +$25 largest); Goldman $104 → $91 (Buy, modest trim); Evercore $85 → $95.


Main business structure

GM operates 4 segments:

SegmentApprox FY25 Share
GM North America (GMNA)~80% — the profit engine
GM International~5%
GM Financial~10%
Cruise (autonomous, winding down)~0%

GMNA: Chevy + GMC + Cadillac + Buick. Pickup trucks (Silverado, Sierra) the structural profit driver. Full-size SUV (Tahoe, Yukon, Suburban) the second-highest-margin product.

EV strategy reset: GM has moderated EV pace — slowed Ultium platform rollout; reduced Cruise to dormant. Reflects industry-wide EV demand-supply rebalancing.


Key core metrics (3-year trend)

FY23FY24FY25
Revenue ($B)171.84187.44185.02
Operating income ($B)9.3012.782.91
Net income ($B)10.136.012.70
Diluted EPS$7.32$6.37$3.27
FCF ($B)-3.68-5.98+11.07
Buybacks ($B)11.127.066.04

The FY25 FCF reversal (+$11.07B vs -$5.98B FY24) is the structural inflection — capex moderation post-EV-pace-reset.


Market evaluation

Sell-side coverage (Feb-April 2026):

  • Deutsche Bank: Hold → Buy April 14 ($83 → $90)
  • Wolfe Research: Peer Perform → Outperform March 25 ($96)
  • UBS: $102 → $105 April 14 — Buy maintained
  • Goldman Sachs: $104 → $91 April 14 — Buy maintained, -$13 trim
  • Benchmark: $65 → $90 Feb 10 — Buy, +$25 (largest single raise)
  • Evercore ISI: $85 → $95 Feb 2 — OP
  • Jefferies: $85 → $97 Feb 2 — Hold

The pattern: 2 upgrades + 5 PT raises + 1 modest trim. Mixed but mostly bullish.


FY25 corporate structure: EV reset + capex moderation = FCF inflection

FY25 was the EV strategy reset year for GM: revenue -1%, operating income -77% on charges, but FCF flipped positive to +$11B as capex moderated. The structural read is that GM's profit engine (GMNA pickups + SUVs) remains intact while EV-related capex / impairments cleared. The Q1 FY26 earnings print this week is the proximate event for measuring continued FCF generation + EV demand commentary + tariff exposure.

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