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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.

NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturers · US

$353.18
−6.16%
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Research · Sep 3, 2026

[TSLA] Tesla Thesis 2026: First Revenue Decline Tests the Margin Story

Tesla FY25 at $94.8B (-2.9% — first annual revenue decline as a public company). Auto revenue -9.8%, regulatory credits collapsed 28% on US EV rule rollback. Deliveries ~1.64M (-8%). Energy storage +27% to $12.8B (46.7 GWh deployed) — now 13.5% of revenue. OpMargin compressed to 4.6% (4th consecutive year). FCF improved to $6.2B on lower capex. 14 analysts with PT range $24.86 (GLJ Sell) to $600 (Wedbush), widest in mega-cap.

Research · Apr 30, 2026

TSLA Q1 26: $25B AI Capex Validates Robotics Pivot

Tesla's Q1 10-Q confirms AI/robotics pivot with $2.49B quarterly capex and >$25B 2026 guide, breaching materiality on swings and validating Optimus ramps amid strong FCF. The shift from autos accelerates, though capex burn tests balance sheet resilience. Next quarter focuses on sustained AI allocation and production milestones.

Research · Apr 28, 2026

TSLA Q1: Auto Revenue +16% on Volume, Not Price

Tesla's Q1 2026 auto revenue rose 16% YoY to $16.23B on just 6% delivery growth, implying ~10% ASP expansion—the first sustained price recovery since mid-2023. Auto gross margin ex-credits held 18-19%, comfortably above the 17% distress threshold. The question is whether Cybertruck mix or base pricing power drove the gain, and whether margin holds if Q2 demand requires renewed incentives.

Research · Apr 27, 2026

TSLA Q1: Revenue +16% to $22.4B, Robotaxi Doubts Drag Stock

Tesla reported Q1 2026 revenue up 16% to $22.4B with $1.4B free cash flow, beating estimates. Despite the operational beat, shares declined post-earnings as management failed to provide concrete robotaxi commercialization timelines, revealing that Tesla's premium valuation now depends on demonstrable AI progress rather than automotive fundamentals.

Research · Apr 23, 2026

Can Tesla Hold 19% Auto Margins After Q1's 130-Basis-Point Jump?

Tesla's Q1 2026 auto gross margin jumped to 19.2% from 17.9%, driven by record Giga Berlin output and 150%+ EMEA delivery growth. The 130-basis-point expansion clears materiality thresholds and confirms margin recovery is durable. Q2's test: can margins hold above 18% as Cybertruck ramps and European competition intensifies?

Research · Apr 23, 2026

TSLA Q1: $1.4B Free Cash Flow Surprises Street as Margins Hold

Tesla reported Q1 2026 results with $1.4 billion in free cash flow and better-than-expected profits, surprising Wall Street amid concerns about margin compression. The company maintained operating discipline while announcing $25 billion in capex plans and expanding robotaxi service to Dallas and Houston.

Research · Apr 23, 2026

TSLA Q1: Does Record FSD Growth Confirm Monetization Escape Velocity?

Tesla's Q1 FSD MAUs hit record 12M (+32% YoY), revenue $2.3B (+53% YoY), beating key thresholds for adoption and monetization. Prints bolster bulls vs. consensus doubts on FY27 revenue share. Watch Q2 for sustained >25% MAU growth or risk thesis break.

Research · Apr 10, 2026

IPCC Climate Deadlock Boosts XOM — and Puts NEE and TSLA on the Wrong Side

IPCC's AR7 deadlock delays climate report timelines, easing regulatory risks for ExxonMobil (up 28% YTD at 24x P/E) while pressuring renewables leader NextEra (14% YTD) and Tesla (-10% YTD, 323x P/E). XOM's superior FCF and low multiples make it the clear winner in a slower transition world.

Research · Apr 10, 2026

Iran Ceasefire Collapses Again: USO, XLE Set to Retest Highs — SPY at Risk

Tesla's Q1 2024 deliveries fell sequentially to 387,000 amid factory disruptions and softening EV demand, as flagged by Reuters, with revenue down 13% YoY. While peers like Rivian show growth, Tesla eyes recovery via Cybertruck, FSD, and affordable models. Investors should track Q2 volumes and autonomy milestones for trajectory signals.