Research · Sep 25, 2026
[F] Ford: Q3 2026 earnings preview, Ford Pro recovery and cash flow
Ford earned $5.99 billion of adjusted EBIT in 1H26 but only $220 million of adjusted free cash flow; Q3 must show whether Ford Pro's aluminum recovery turns profit into cash.
Research · Sep 3, 2026
[F] Ford Thesis 2026: Pro and Blue Divisions Subsidize Electric Vehicle Losses
Ford FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $187.27B revenue (+1.2%). OpInc $2.53B; Net loss -$8.18B; EPS -$2.06. FCF $12.47B. Pro $6.8B EBIT, Blue ~breakeven, Model e -$4.8B loss, Credit $2.6B EBT. FY26 mgmt EBIT guide $8-10B.
Research · Aug 26, 2026
Canada 50% Auto Tariff: What It Means for Toyota, Honda and Century Aluminum
Trump's 50% tariff on Canadian vehicles, parts and steel from January 2027 killed the metals deal, leaving Toyota, Honda and Century Aluminum on the chain.
Research · Aug 25, 2026
Trump Sets 50% Canada Auto Tariff, Ending the Metals Tariff Cut
Trump's 24 August pledge puts a 50% US tariff on Canadian cars, trucks, parts and steel from 1 January 2027, and kills the deal that would have halved the metals rate.
Research · Jun 12, 2026
F Stock: USMCA Renewal Risk for Ford Explained
Ford -4.3% on Trump USMCA renewal threat. 25% North American production in Mexico. $4-6B tariff exposure if full USMCA exit occurs.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
$4 Gas Alert: MPC, VLO Surge While Ford and Costco Face the Squeeze
Strait of Hormuz threats fuel $4 gas fears, supercharging refiner margins for MPC and VLO while hitting Ford's truck sales and testing Costco's pricing power. Integrated majors XOM and CVX offer balanced upside amid volatility.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
EV Slowdown: VW Kills ID.4 in US — Why GM and Ford Beat TSLA, RIVN Right Now
VW's US ID.4 cancellation signals EV slowdown, boosting Ford and GM's ICE/hybrid profits while pressuring Rivian, Lucid, Tesla's core, and Albemarle. Legacy names offer value at low multiples; pure-plays face cash crunch. Rank: Buy GM/F, avoid others.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Oil Above $100: XOM and CVX Surge While AMZN, WMT, and F Face Fuel Crisis
US Hormuz blockade spikes oil >$100/bbl, favoring XOM and CVX with massive upstream upside while pressuring F, AMZN, WMT, and UNP via fuel costs. Ranked picks highlight energy leaders as buys amid sector divide.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Strait of Hormuz Closure: COP and XOM Win Big While DAL, UPS, and Ford Bleed
Strait of Hormuz closure from Iran conflict spikes crude into backwardation, boosting oil producers like COP, XOM, and CVX while slamming DAL, UPS, and F. COP tops conviction for pure upstream exposure; Ford ranks worst on ICE demand hit.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Strait of Hormuz Oil Rally: XOM, CVX Gain While CAT and F Face Cost Hit
Trump's Iran speech faded ceasefire hopes, spiking oil on Hormuz fears and favoring XOM, CVX, OXY, COP via upstream leverage while CAT and F suffer cost/demand hits. Energy names show superior returns and margins; industrials lag on exposure.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
UBS: Yen Collapses to 175 on Oil Shock — XOM and CVX Win While TM and HMC Lose
UBS's USD/JPY 175 call on oil disruptions spotlights Exxon and Chevron as winners from price spikes, while Toyota, Honda, and Ford face margin erosion. XOM tops rankings for its low-cost production and returns leadership.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Iran War Week 2: XLE Leads While SPY Stalls — Sector Rotation Playbook Inside
VW's Xpeng partnership spotlights Chinese EV tech's edge, boosting XPEV and pressuring US legacy firms like Ford and GM while Tesla's scale and Rivian's JV provide buffers. Article analyzes six US-listed players with fresh financials, ranking XPEV as top winner amid disruption.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
$4 Gas: VLO, MPC, XOM Margin Boom — While Ford and Costco Take the Hit
U.S. gasoline at $4/gallon boosts refiners like VLO, MPC, and XOM via fat margins, while hurting Ford, Booking, and even Costco through curbed spending. Valero tops conviction for pure-play exposure at attractive multiples.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Oil Supply Shock: Why XOM and COP Win While CAT and F Face a Cost Squeeze
Javier Blas' alert on oil supply risks spotlights winners like COP and XOM, with superior margins and growth, versus losers F and CAT facing cost squeezes. Ranked conviction favors pure-play producers at attractive valuations amid looming price surge.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Hormuz Crisis Sends Oil to $150: XOM, OXY Win Big as CAT and Ford Take the Hit
The April 7 Hormuz crisis spiked oil to $150/bbl, boosting energy producers XOM, CVX, OXY, and COP via upstream leverage while pressuring CAT and F with input costs. OXY leads conviction for its high-beta exposure; industrials lag. Watch geopolitics and inventories for sustainability.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Brent Crude Slides on Hormuz News: OXY Ranked Top Loser, F Top Winner
Pakistan's April 7, 2026, plea to open the Strait of Hormuz triggered a Brent slide, pressuring energy stocks like OXY and SLB while aiding Ford and Walmart via cheaper gas. Analysis ranks OXY as top loser and F as prime winner based on TTM metrics and guidance.
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