Research · Sep 3, 2026
Caterpillar FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $67.6B revenue (+4%). Power & Energy +12% to $32.2B (now largest segment, data-center gensets + LNG); Construction Industries -2% to $25.1B; Resource Industries flat at $12.5B. OpMargin 16.6% (compressed from 20.5% FY23 on mix shift). Order backlog stepped to $51.2B from $30.0B (+71%) — forward visibility through FY27 in P&E. Net income $8.9B; FCF $9.5B; capital return $7.9B (buybacks $5.2B + div $2.7B). 12 analysts: 8 Buy / 3 Hold / 1 Sell; consensus $774, range $430-$960 (Wells Fargo high, Morgan Stanley sole UW).
Research · Jun 10, 2026
New factory spending declines through Q1 2026. CAT at +62% YTD on commodity cycle, DE flat on agricultural compression — manufacturing 'renaissance' is uneven.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
US factory orders flat in February for the second month highlight manufacturing weakness, creating winners like diversified Honeywell and backlog-rich Caterpillar, while cyclical steelmaker Nucor and toolmaker Stanley Black & Decker lag. Analysis ranks six industrials/materials stocks by theme exposure, financials, and outlooks. Key: Favor resilience amid stagnation.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Potential Strait of Hormuz blockade risks broad inflation, favoring pricing power staples like PG, COST, and WMT while pressuring discretionary TGT and input-heavy CAT/DE. Analysis ranks PG highest conviction amid TTM metrics showing superior margins and growth resilience.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
New report details Middle East war's toll on global PMIs, hammering industrials (XLI, CAT down 7-8% monthly) via cost inflation while energy (XLE, XOM up 7-12%) thrives on $110+ oil. Overweight energy for asymmetric upside.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
The Iran war's logistics disruptions as of April 11, 2026, are straining China's supply chains, exposing US giants like Apple and Nike to delays and cost hikes. We rank six tickers by vulnerability, with AAPL most at risk due to manufacturing reliance. Financials show resilient growth but thinning margins amid tariffs.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
The Iran conflict has exposed structural weaknesses in the US dollar's reserve currency status, creating winners and losers among US multinationals. Caterpillar and Apple stand to benefit most from dollar weakness due to their massive international revenue bases, while Costco faces margin pressure from higher import costs. Microsoft and Exxon present more nuanced cases with offsetting factors.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
European ministers' Ukraine visit highlights surging military aid and reconstruction, benefiting US defense leaders like RTX and LMT via munitions replenishment, and infrastructure firms CAT and PWR through rebuild contracts. With Europe committing billions, these six stocks offer tailwinds from 5-20% revenue growth and strong FCF. Ranked by conviction: RTX tops for balanced exposure.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Trump's Iran speech faded ceasefire hopes, spiking oil on Hormuz fears and favoring XOM, CVX, OXY, COP via upstream leverage while CAT and F suffer cost/demand hits. Energy names show superior returns and margins; industrials lag on exposure.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
April 1's strong US data reduced Fed cut bets, favoring banks (JPM, BAC) and cyclicals (CAT, XOM) via higher NII and demand, while REITs (PLD, EQIX) face debt headwinds. JPM leads conviction at cheap multiples; ranked picks prioritize resilient earners.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
US manufacturing's sharp expansion since 2022 boosts machinery demand for CAT, DE, and HON, while surging input costs erode margins at steelmakers NUE/CLF and chemicals firm DOW. CAT leads with record backlog and pricing leverage; CLF lags with negative margins.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Javier Blas' alert on oil supply risks spotlights winners like COP and XOM, with superior margins and growth, versus losers F and CAT facing cost squeezes. Ranked conviction favors pure-play producers at attractive valuations amid looming price surge.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
The April 7 Hormuz crisis spiked oil to $150/bbl, boosting energy producers XOM, CVX, OXY, and COP via upstream leverage while pressuring CAT and F with input costs. OXY leads conviction for its high-beta exposure; industrials lag. Watch geopolitics and inventories for sustainability.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Anchored to Bloomberg's April 8, 2026 report of market optimism, this analyzes six cyclicals (JPM, XOM, V, MA, MU, CAT) benefiting from fading recession fears via resilient spending and growth. Micron leads conviction with 85% revenue surge; ranks prioritize exposure and value.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
FT's April 8 warning on ECB tightening revives 2011 fears, hammering US-exposed stocks. JPM, BAC, MS, CAT, HON, and PLD—holding 13-23% Europe revenue—top the risk list amid negative returns and slowing growth. Ranked bears: BAC leads vulnerability.
