[EXC] Exelon: Q3 2026 Earnings Test Rate Recovery at PECO and Maryland

Exelon is one of the largest US utility companies, delivering electricity and natural gas to almost 11 million customers through six regulated transmission and distribution utilities: ComEd, PECO, BGE, Pepco, DPL and ACE[1][2]. Ahead of its Q3 2026 earnings, Exelon has scheduled a call on 2026-10-30 to report the third quarter 2026, the three months ended September 30, 2026[3]. In the latest disclosed quarter, the second quarter of 2026, operating revenue was $5.967 billion, up from $5.427 billion a year earlier[4]; GAAP earnings were $0.39 per share and adjusted operating earnings were $0.43 per share, up from $0.39[5]. Within that, ComEd's adjusted operating earnings rose 9% to $249 million, while PECO and PHI fell to $130 million and $126 million[6]. Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance of $2.81-$2.91 and said it is targeting the midpoint or better; on the second-quarter call it said third-quarter earnings should be about 27% of the full-year midpoint, a figure that already reflects the PECO employee strike in early July and assumes normal weather and storms for the rest of the quarter[7], which works out to about $0.77 on the $2.86 midpoint. Drillr's compiled consensus from seven analysts puts third-quarter EPS at $0.79 (range $0.75-$0.86), and five analysts put third-quarter revenue at $6.735 billion[8]; 11 analysts put full-year EPS at $2.86, the same as the guidance midpoint[9].

Three things matter most in these results. The first is whether PECO can hold its earnings without new rates: PECO withdrew its electric and gas rate cases in April[10], and its second-quarter depreciation and interest rose by $13 million and $12 million year over year[11], so the third-quarter numbers will show whether that erosion is a one-off or persistent. The second is whether rate recovery at PHI and BGE can catch up with costs: Maryland and Delaware both tightened utility ratemaking rules by law in 2026[12], PHI's adjusted operating earnings fell year over year in both the first and second quarters[13], and Pepco Maryland's $120 million rate case was expected to be decided in the third quarter[14], so the approved amount and ROE will determine whether that gap narrows. The third is whether ComEd's investment growth can outrun financing costs: ComEd's first-half capital spending rose about 41%[15], but group interest expense rose 8% to $568 million in the second quarter[4], and where group EPS lands relative to about $0.77 will show whether rate base growth still covers interest and new-share dilution.

Company Background and Business Structure

Exelon is a pure transmission and distribution holding company, and all of its earnings come from six regulated utilities[1]. ComEd serves northern Illinois, including Chicago, with about 4.2 million electric customers; PECO serves southeastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, with about 1.7 million electric and 0.6 million gas customers; and BGE serves central Maryland, including Baltimore, with about 1.4 million electric and 0.7 million gas customers[16]. PHI is the intermediate holding company for Pepco, DPL and ACE, covering the District of Columbia and parts of Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey; Pepco has about 1 million customers, DPL about 0.6 million electric and 0.1 million gas customers, and ACE about 0.6 million customers[16][6]. Calvin Butler is president and chief executive officer[5]. Effective October 5, 2026, Robert Kleczynski, previously senior vice president, controller and tax, became chief financial officer, and former CFO Jeanne Jones became executive vice president of finance and strategy[17].

Exelon earns its profit from the delivery network rather than from buying and selling power. ComEd, Pepco, DPL and ACE customers can buy electricity from competitive suppliers, and PECO and BGE customers can also choose a gas supplier, but Exelon's utilities deliver the energy no matter who sells it and carry default supply obligations for customers who do not choose a supplier[18]. The cost of power and gas bought on customers' behalf is billed to customers, so it lifts operating revenue without directly setting profit; the company makes money by investing in distribution lines, substations, transmission and gas mains that form its rate base, with regulators approving recoverable costs and the return on that investment[19].

The utilities differ in how sensitive their revenue is to weather and usage. Electric distribution revenue at ComEd, BGE, Pepco, DPL Maryland and ACE is decoupled, as is BGE's gas distribution revenue, so weather and usage patterns are offset; PECO's and DPL Delaware's electric and gas distribution revenue still moves with delivery volumes[19]. On rate mechanisms, ComEd operates under a 2024-2027 multi-year rate plan approved by the Illinois Commerce Commission, BGE, Pepco and DPL Maryland use multi-year rate cases, PECO uses a fully projected future test year, and ACE uses a fully historical test year[19].

In 2025 the four business units were broadly comparable in revenue but differed clearly in profit. By segment revenue, ComEd generated $7.267 billion, PHI $7.135 billion, BGE $5.222 billion and PECO $4.684 billion[20]. By GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders, ComEd earned $1.147 billion, PECO $814 million, PHI $799 million and BGE $578 million, while the holding company and other items were negative $570 million; within PHI, Pepco, DPL and ACE earned $401 million, $224 million and $188 million[21]. PECO's net income was about a quarter of the four utilities' combined $3.338 billion, and because it is one of the few units without decoupling, its rate progress feeds through to group earnings especially directly.

Financial History and Current Position

Exelon's revenue and earnings grew steadily over the past three fiscal years. Operating revenue rose from $21.727 billion in 2023 to $23.028 billion in 2024 and $24.258 billion in 2025, while GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders rose from $2.328 billion to $2.460 billion and $2.768 billion[22]. Operating income was $5.148 billion in 2025, and net interest expense was $2.102 billion, up from $1.889 billion in 2024[22]. Excluding special items, 2025 adjusted operating earnings were $2.801 billion, or $2.77 per share, compared with $2.50 per share in 2024[23].

The 2025 cash flow statement shows investment running well ahead of internally generated cash. Operating cash flow was $6.254 billion for the year, capital expenditures were $8.529 billion and common dividends were $1.617 billion[24]. The gap was filled mainly by $6.075 billion of long-term debt issuance and $691 million of common stock, while $1.311 billion of long-term debt was retired[24]. During 2025 the company issued about 16 million shares through its at-the-market program at a weighted-average net price of $43.24 per share[23].

Adjusted earnings rose slightly year over year across the first two quarters of 2026. First-quarter adjusted operating EPS was $0.91, compared with $0.92 a year earlier[25]. Second-quarter operating revenue was $5.967 billion, up about 10%, with purchased power rising from $1.811 billion to $2.132 billion[4]; GAAP net income was $396 million and adjusted operating earnings were $438 million[2]. Of second-quarter adjusted operating earnings, ComEd contributed $249 million, PECO $130 million, BGE $70 million and PHI $126 million, with the holding company and other items at about negative $137 million[2]; first-half adjusted operating EPS totaled $1.34, compared with $1.31 a year earlier[25][5].

First-half 2026 operating cash flow improved markedly, but capital spending grew faster. First-half operating cash flow was $3.669 billion, compared with $2.711 billion a year earlier; capital expenditures were $4.558 billion, up about 15%; and dividends were $860 million[26]. Over the same period the company issued $3.6 billion of long-term debt, retired $1.6 billion and issued $382 million of common stock, and cash, restricted cash and cash equivalents were $2.430 billion at the end of June, up from $1.201 billion at the start of the year[26]. In the second quarter the company issued about 8.7 million shares through its at-the-market program at a weighted-average net price of $44.03[27], and on July 28 the board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share[6].

Operating Model

Exelon's operating revenue has three parts, distribution, transmission and pass-through supply, and only the first two determine profit. Distribution revenue depends on rates set by state regulators, and decoupled utilities are insulated from usage[19]; the cost of power and gas bought for customers is billed through, while alternative revenue programs reflect decoupling and multi-year plan reconciliations[18]. Of 2025 operating revenue of $24.258 billion, electric revenue was $22.655 billion, gas revenue was $2.349 billion and alternative revenue programs were negative $746 million[22]; of second-quarter 2026 operating revenue of $5.967 billion, purchased power was $2.132 billion[4]. That is why roughly 10% revenue growth does not mean profit grew at the same pace, and why earnings are best judged through each utility's adjusted operating earnings.

The core profit relationship is rate base times the allowed return, minus what regulatory lag takes away. Depreciation and interest start as soon as new assets enter service, while rates cover those costs only after a rate case is approved, so the longer the lag, the more earnings are squeezed; the allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC) is booked in other income before assets enter service[28]. The second quarter showed this structure clearly: ComEd's earnings rose on higher distribution and transmission rate base and higher AFUDC, PECO's fell on higher depreciation, interest and income taxes, BGE grew on approved rates partly offset by credit loss expense, PHI fell on higher depreciation, and the holding company's costs fell because the prior year's Customer Relief Fund contribution did not recur, though its interest expense rose[29].

Each driver reaches earnings with a different lag. ComEd's multi-year plan already locks in rate increases of about $102 million in 2026 and about $111 million in 2027, so its lag is short[30]. After PECO withdrew its rate cases, its added depreciation and interest have no matching rates in 2026 and can be recovered only after a refiled case is approved[10]. Maryland has paused forecasted test-year rate cases until April 1, 2027[12], and BGE's newly filed case is not expected to be decided until the first quarter of 2027[14]. Cost reduction is the lever the company controls: management plans about $350 million of operating and maintenance savings in 2027[31] and is targeting no more than 2% annual adjusted O&M growth through 2029[32].

The core cash relationship is operating cash flow minus capital spending and dividends, and the difference is the external financing need. Capital spending consistently exceeds operating cash flow, and the gap is filled with utility bonds, holding company debt and at-the-market forward equity sales[24]; in the first half of 2026, capital spending plus dividends exceeded operating cash flow by about $1.75 billion[26]. Management plans $41.7 billion of capital spending for 2026-2029, including about $10 billion in 2026, for 7.9% annual rate base growth, with $3.4 billion of equity needs through 2029[25][32]. Interest on new debt reaches the income statement as soon as it is issued and new shares dilute earnings per share directly, so both offset part of the profit from rate base growth.

Industry and Competitive Position

Distribution is a franchise business, so Exelon competes mainly through its regulatory relationships and reliability. Each utility delivers to every customer in its territory, and competitive suppliers compete only for the supply portion[18]. Reliability is the main basis on which the company seeks investment recovery from regulators: in the first quarter it said all of its utilities were top quartile in reliability performance, with ComEd in the top decile[25], and in the second quarter it projected that ComEd and PHI would both be in the top decile[5].

Tight supply in the PJM power market is pushing affordability to the center of the regulatory agenda. On the second-quarter call, management said PJM set a record July peak of 168 GW, power prices surged to $800/MWh, the latest capacity auction cleared at the FERC price cap for the third consecutive time with a 6.8 GW reliability shortfall, and only 525 MW of new generation cleared[33]. Customers ultimately pay for supply, so rising bills make state governments more wary of distribution rate increases; when PECO withdrew its rate cases, the company listed customer affordability as a consideration in future investment decisions[10][34].

The company's growth opportunities lie mainly in transmission, storage and data center connections. Exelon is bidding for competitive transmission projects, most recently submitting two MISO Tranche 2.1 bids with Invenergy, and is advancing utility-scale battery storage on the order of 500 MW[33]; ACE has filed a transmission-connected battery storage proposal with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities[5]. In the second quarter the company removed speculative data center projects that had not completed the Transmission Security Agreement process, cutting the pipeline by about 11 GW; management said 4 GW of the reduced volume had signed agreements backed by $1 billion of collateral, and that the 2026-2029 capital plan never included speculative projects and therefore remains unchanged[35].

The available material offers limited support for peer comparison. The company does not split earnings among distribution, transmission and gas, and it does not disclose separate adjusted figures for DPL and ACE within PHI, so actual regulatory returns cannot be compared precisely by state; adjusted operating earnings are the company's own non-GAAP measure[2]. The only directly comparable markers are the company's reliability rankings and the requested ROEs in its rate cases, such as 10.50% for Pepco Maryland and DPL Delaware and 10.40% for BGE[14].

Core Debates

Can deferred capital and cost cuts absorb PECO's rising costs after it withdrew its rate case?

This debate determines where the risk to full-year group guidance is concentrated. PECO earned $814 million of GAAP net income in 2025, about a quarter of the four utilities' combined total[21], and its distribution revenue moves with delivery volumes without decoupling protection[19]. Regulated utilities earn money by investing first and getting rates approved later, so withdrawing the rate cases means the depreciation and interest added in 2026 have no matching rates; whether PECO can hold its earnings through the gap determines where the risk to the $2.81-$2.91 guidance sits and how large the shortfall becomes if the gap lasts longer[36].

PECO's earnings moved in opposite directions in the first two quarters of 2026. PECO filed electric and gas rate cases on March 30 and petitioned to withdraw them on April 16, after which Exelon said it would delay capital projects, pursue operating efficiencies and reaffirm full-year guidance[10][36]. First-quarter adjusted operating earnings at PECO rose from $265 million to $278 million, helped by the absence of customer surcharge credits, favorable weather and tax repair deductions[13]. Second-quarter earnings fell from $136 million to $130 million as depreciation rose $13 million and interest rose $12 million[6][11], and even with 526 cooling degree-days, about 36% above the normal 387, favorable weather did not offset the cost increase[37]. PECO's first-half capital spending was $964 million, still about 16% above $832 million a year earlier[38], and its original 2026 plan of $2.225 billion was set before the rate cases were withdrawn[39].

An alternative reading is that the second-quarter decline came mostly from one-off factors and PECO's underlying earnings have not deteriorated. That reading rests on two points: the GAAP decline included cost-management severance ($11 million after tax, excluded from the adjusted measure), and part of the adjusted decline came from the timing of tax repair deductions[2][6]; if the third quarter has no severance and normal weather, PECO's earnings could be roughly flat. The financial transmission runs as follows: without new distribution rates, depreciation and interest on new assets keep rising, revenue is supported only by weather and the absence of surcharge credits, PECO's adjusted operating earnings come under pressure, and deferring capital projects can slow the growth of depreciation and interest.

The third-quarter report needs to show PECO's adjusted operating earnings with the company's breakdown of weather, strike and cost effects, the year-over-year increase in PECO's depreciation and interest, and the growth rate of PECO's nine-month capital spending; the cost of the early-July strike has so far appeared only in call commentary and has not been quantified[7]. On the second-quarter call, management said it would refile once stakeholder concerns about customer value, a transparent ROE and affordability are addressed, but it gave no timetable[35]. If PECO's earnings rise year over year mainly through cost control, or its capital spending falls year over year, the impact of the rate gap is manageable; if the company announces a refiling timetable, the gap has an end point. Conversely, if depreciation and interest keep adding about $25 million a quarter while earnings decline, the one-off explanation weakens.

After Maryland and Delaware tightened utility rules, can new rates catch up with PHI's and BGE's costs?

PHI and BGE are Exelon's two largest businesses by revenue, and regulatory outcomes there directly decide whether rate base growth turns into earnings. In 2025, PHI and BGE together had $12.357 billion of segment revenue, about half of the four utilities' total[20], and $1.377 billion of GAAP net income, about 40% of the four utilities' total[21]. Their territories are concentrated in Maryland, the District of Columbia, Delaware and New Jersey, states that tightened ratemaking rules by law in 2026[12], so whether the company's 7.9% annual rate base growth becomes profit depends heavily on decisions there[25].

PHI's first-half decline came mainly from Pepco Maryland, while BGE grew on approved rates. PHI's first-quarter adjusted operating earnings fell from $194 million to $180 million because of the unfavorable Pepco Maryland multi-year plan reconciliation and higher depreciation[13]. Second-quarter earnings fell from $144 million to $126 million, mainly on higher depreciation[6], bringing the first half to $306 million, about 9% below $338 million a year earlier. Pepco's operating income fell from $151 million to $126 million in the second quarter and from $315 million to $254 million in the first half, and the 10-Q attributes the first-half net income decline to the multi-year plan reconciliation and the disallowance of certain capitalized costs, depreciation, severance and interest[40]; PHI's own explanation lists the same reconciliation and disallowance factors[41]. BGE's adjusted operating earnings rose from $260 million and $55 million to $298 million and $70 million in the first and second quarters, driven by approved distribution rates but partly offset by higher credit loss expense[13][6][42].

The tighter laws have changed the timing of the next round of rates, though one reading holds that the first-half decline was only one-off items. Maryland's governor signed the Utility RELIEF Act on May 12, pausing forecasted test-year rate cases until April 1, 2027; Delaware's governor signed SB 326 on July 13, limiting DPL's recoverable non-mandatory capital spending to $70 million in each of 2026 and 2027 and, from 2028, to no more than 5% of the rate base approved in its latest rate case[12]. Pepco Maryland therefore switched to a traditional rate case seeking a $120 million revenue increase at a 10.50% ROE, with a decision expected by the company in the third quarter, and DPL implemented interim rates, subject to refund, on July 9 for its $45 million case[14]; on the call, the final Pepco Maryland order was described as expected in August[43]. BGE filed a $156 million rate case on July 2 at a 10.40% ROE, with a decision expected in the first quarter of 2027[44]. The alternative reading is that PHI's first-half decline came mainly from one-off reconciliation and disallowance items, that approved rates and DPL's interim rates will make up the difference in the second half, and that underlying earnings have not deteriorated; telling the two apart requires third-quarter PHI earnings and the amount and ROE in the Pepco Maryland decision.

The third-quarter report needs to show PHI's and BGE's adjusted operating earnings with explanations, Pepco's operating income, the approved amount and ROE in the Pepco Maryland decision, the trend in BGE's credit loss expense, and how DPL's capital spending cap affects PHI's capital plan. The financial transmission runs as follows: the pause on forecasted test years, the capital spending cap and affordability pressure lower approved amounts and ROEs and lengthen recovery lag, depreciation and interest on new assets arrive before rates do, PHI's and BGE's earnings come under pressure, and customer bill strain pushes credit losses higher at the same time. If PHI's third-quarter earnings rise year over year and Pepco Maryland receives at least 60% of its request, the tighter laws have not weakened rate recovery; if BGE's earnings grow and credit losses stabilize, customer bill pressure remains manageable. For now BGE's credit losses are described only directionally, with no quarterly amount[42], which limits how precisely this can be judged.

Can the earnings growth from ComEd's accelerated investment outrun the financing cost of Exelon's capital plan?

This debate decides whether the top end of management's growth target can be delivered. Management is targeting adjusted operating EPS growth near the top end of a 5%-7% annual range from 2025 to 2029, supported by a $41.7 billion capital plan and 7.9% annual rate base growth[25]. After PECO's withdrawal and Maryland's tightening, ComEd, with its multi-year rate plan, has become the most predictable source of growth[30]; but capital spending beyond operating cash flow has to be funded with debt and new shares, and interest and dilution offset part of the growth.

ComEd's investment and earnings are both accelerating, though timing swings between quarters. ComEd's first-half capital spending was $1.671 billion, about 41% above $1.189 billion a year earlier[15]. Its second-quarter adjusted operating earnings rose 9% from $228 million to $249 million on higher distribution and transmission rate base and higher AFUDC[6][28], while first-quarter earnings fell from $325 million to $310 million because of the timing of distribution earnings[13]. ComEd's multi-year plan sets a rate increase of about $102 million for 2026[30]; in addition, ComEd has proposed $15.3 billion of grid investment for 2028-2031, with an order expected in December 2026[43].

Financing costs are rising at the group level as well, and an alternative reading holds that ComEd's second-quarter pace may not last. In the first half, group operating cash flow was $3.669 billion, capital spending was $4.558 billion and dividends were $860 million[26]; second-quarter consolidated net interest expense was $568 million, up 8% from $524 million[4]. The company has completed about 86% of its 2026 debt financing and priced about 37% of its equity needs through 2029, covering all of 2026 and half of 2027, and said average credit metrics will stay around 14%[45]. On management's framing, the third quarter should be about 27% of the $2.86 full-year midpoint, or about $0.77[7]. The alternative reading is that part of ComEd's second-quarter growth made up for first-quarter distribution timing, that ComEd's full-year growth may come in below 9%, and that reaching the group midpoint depends more on cost cuts and holding company costs.

The third-quarter report needs to show ComEd's adjusted operating earnings growth, whether nine-month group capital spending is on pace for about $10 billion in 2026[32], the growth rate of consolidated interest expense, where group EPS lands relative to about $0.77, and the status of equity needs and financing completion. The financial transmission runs as follows: capital spending grows rate base, which becomes ComEd earnings through annual multi-year plan increases, FERC transmission formula rates and AFUDC; at the same time, spending beyond operating cash flow brings new debt and equity, and higher interest and share dilution weigh on group EPS. If ComEd grows at least 6% in the third quarter and group EPS reaches $0.77, rate base growth is covering financing costs; if the company raises its equity needs or lowers guidance, financing pressure has exceeded the original plan.

Risks and Falsifiers

Tight PJM supply is the main external risk, and it reaches distribution rates through affordability pressure. Exelon does not earn a margin on supply, but supply costs appear on customer bills[18]; PJM's capacity auction has hit the price cap three times in a row[33], and rising bills intensify state resistance to distribution increases, a pressure already visible in PECO's withdrawal and Maryland's RELIEF Act, while also pushing credit loss expense higher[10]. The exposed lines are each utility's incremental distribution revenue and credit loss expense; if PJM's next capacity auction clears below the cap and the reliability shortfall narrows, this risk assessment would need to be revised.

Finance leadership turnover and execution of cost cuts are the main internal variables. Robert Kleczynski became CFO on October 5, 2026, and Michael Innocenzo, group chief operating officer and president and CEO of PECO, will leave in 2027[17]; meanwhile the company plans about $350 million of O&M savings in 2027[31] and no more than 2% annual adjusted O&M growth through 2029[32], and it booked a $42 million after-tax cost-management charge in the second quarter[2]. The exposed lines are O&M expense and special items; if the third-quarter report reaffirms guidance and the $350 million savings target without new large restructuring charges, execution risk is under control.

A longer PECO rate gap would leave rising costs without rate coverage for longer. PECO's second-quarter depreciation and interest together added about $25 million of pre-tax cost year over year[11], and every extra year of the gap compounds unrecovered costs, directly lowering PECO's adjusted operating earnings[10]. The exposed lines are PECO's depreciation, interest and adjusted operating earnings; if the company announces a refiling timetable, or PECO's nine-month capital spending falls year over year, this risk diminishes[35].

If rate outcomes in Maryland and Delaware are cut sharply, investment recovery will lag further. Pepco Maryland, BGE and DPL are requesting revenue increases of $120 million, $156 million and $45 million, about $321 million in total, so each 10-percentage-point drop in the approval ratio means about $32 million less annual revenue[14]; the pause on forecasted test years also pushes recovery of new investment to at least 2027[12]. The exposed lines are PHI's and BGE's distribution revenue and operating income; if Pepco Maryland receives at least 60% of its request at an ROE of at least 9.5%, this concern weakens.

Interest and equity dilution could absorb rate base growth. In the first half of 2026, capital spending plus dividends exceeded operating cash flow by about $1.75 billion[26]; consolidated interest expense rose about 8% year over year in the second quarter and annualizes to about $2.2 billion at the first-half run rate[4]; and $3.4 billion of equity needs, if issued evenly over four years, amounts to about $850 million a year[25]. The exposed lines are interest expense and EPS; if third-quarter interest growth does not exceed 8% and equity needs are unchanged, this risk remains within the original plan[45].

What to Watch Next

• PECO rate gap: second-quarter adjusted operating earnings were $130 million versus $136 million a year earlier, with depreciation up $13 million, interest up $12 million and first-half capital spending of $964 million, up 16%[11][38]. Watch the year-over-year change with the weather, strike and cost breakdown, plus any refiling commentary. Earnings growth driven by cost control, or lower capital spending, would show the impact is manageable; a refiling timetable would give the gap an end point.
• Maryland and Delaware recovery: PHI earned $306 million in the first half, down 9%; BGE earned $70 million in the second quarter; Pepco Maryland requested $120 million at a 10.50% ROE[14]. Watch the approved amount and ROE, BGE's credit loss trend and the effect of DPL's capital cap. PHI growth with approval of at least 60% of the request would show recovery has not been weakened.
• ComEd and financing costs: ComEd grew 9% in the second quarter, interest expense was $568 million (up 8%), and management's framing implies about $0.77 for the third quarter[7]. Watch ComEd's growth rate, interest growth, capital spending pace and equity needs. ComEd growth of at least 6% with EPS of $0.77 would show financing costs are covered; higher equity needs or lower guidance would show pressure beyond the plan.

Conclusion

Exelon's earnings are set by the size of its rate base, its allowed returns and regulatory lag, and in 2026 those three factors are moving in different directions in different states. Adjusted operating EPS was $2.77 in 2025[23] and $1.34 in the first half of 2026, slightly above $1.31 a year earlier[5]; first-half operating cash flow improved to $3.669 billion but still did not cover $4.558 billion of capital spending plus dividends[26]. ComEd is contributing growth through its multi-year plan and faster investment, PECO is in a period without new rates, and PHI and BGE face new rules in Maryland and Delaware; the central unresolved relationship is whether ComEd's growth plus cost cuts can offset regulatory lag at PECO and PHI and rising interest costs.

Since the second-quarter results, the Exelon coverage that can be found consists mainly of results recaps, news reports on the reduced data center pipeline, bond issuance, local news on Maryland tax refunds and the DPL rate case, and changes in institutional holdings, and none of it is a signed assessment that makes an independent argument about the debates above. As a result, there is no independent outside interpretation to weigh here, and this material is not treated as a market view; readers are left with company disclosures and management statements, and those statements are exactly what the third-quarter report has to test.

The combination that would materially strengthen the current understanding is third-quarter group adjusted operating EPS at or above about $0.77, ComEd earnings growth of at least 6%, PECO earnings flat or higher year over year without new rates, Pepco Maryland approval of at least 60% of its request, interest growth of no more than 8% and unchanged equity needs. Conversely, if PECO and PHI keep declining year over year, the Pepco Maryland decision is cut sharply, BGE's credit losses keep rising, or the company raises its equity needs or lowers full-year guidance, regulatory lag and financing costs are eating into rate base growth.

Sources

[1] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · six T&D utilities and service territories · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[2] EXC 8-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q26 adjusted earnings by utility · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000077/exc-20260730ex991.htm

[3] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-24) · EXC 2026-10-30 call · 2026-10-24 · Drillr earnings calendar

[4] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q26 consolidated income statement · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[5] EXC 8-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q26 results highlights · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000077/exc-20260730ex991.htm

[6] EXC 8-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q26 utility results commentary · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000077/exc-20260730ex991.htm

[7] EXC Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-30 · guidance and 3Q26 earnings shape · 2026-07-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-23) · EXC quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-23 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-23) · EXC fiscal year 2026 · 2026-10-23 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] EXC 8-K filed 2026-04-16 · PECO rate case withdrawal · 2026-04-16 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000046/exc-20260413.htm

[11] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · PECO 2Q26 results of operations · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[12] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · Maryland Utility Relief Act and Delaware SB 326 · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[13] EXC 8-K filed 2026-05-06 · 1Q26 utility results commentary · 2026-05-06 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000061/exc-20260506ex991.htm

[14] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · pending distribution rate cases · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[15] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · 1H26 ComEd capital expenditures · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[16] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · customers by utility · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[17] EXC 8-K filed 2026-08-25 · executive leadership changes · 2026-08-25 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000084/exc-20260825.htm

[18] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · customer choice and supply pass-through · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[19] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · decoupling and distribution cost recovery · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[20] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · 2025 revenues by utility and customer class · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[21] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · 2025 net income by registrant · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[22] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · 2023-2025 consolidated income statement · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[23] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · 2025 adjusted operating earnings reconciliation · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[24] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · 2023-2025 consolidated cash flow · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[25] EXC 8-K filed 2026-05-06 · 1Q26 results highlights · 2026-05-06 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000061/exc-20260506ex991.htm

[26] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · 1H26 consolidated cash flow · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[27] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q26 ATM equity issuance · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[28] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · ComEd 2Q26 results of operations · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[29] EXC 8-K filed 2026-07-30 · 2Q26 earnings drivers · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000077/exc-20260730ex991.htm

[30] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · ComEd multi-year rate plan and reconciliations · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[31] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · $350 million 2027 cost savings · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[32] EXC Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-06 · revised capital plan and O&M target · 2026-05-06 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[33] EXC Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-30 · PJM resource adequacy strain · 2026-07-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[34] EXC Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-05-06 · capital reprioritization and O&M savings · 2026-05-06 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[35] EXC Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-30 · data center pipeline and PECO refiling Q&A · 2026-07-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[36] EXC 8-K filed 2026-04-16 · capital delays and reaffirmed guidance · 2026-04-16 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000046/exc-20260413.htm

[37] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · PECO 2Q26 degree-days · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[38] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · 1H26 PECO capital expenditures · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[39] EXC 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · 2026 capital expenditure plan by utility · 2026-02-12 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000018/exc-20251231.htm

[40] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · Pepco 2Q26 results of operations · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[41] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · PHI 2Q26 net income by utility · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[42] EXC 10-Q filed 2026-07-30 · BGE 2Q26 results of operations · 2026-07-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm

[43] EXC Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-30 · open rate cases · 2026-07-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[44] EXC 8-K filed 2026-07-30 · BGE rate case and 2Q26 financing · 2026-07-30 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000077/exc-20260730ex991.htm

[45] EXC Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-30 · financing progress and credit metrics · 2026-07-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private