[KEYS] Keysight: Can AI Data Center Test Demand Turn Into Q4 Revenue?

Keysight Technologies is one of the largest electronic test and measurement companies in the world, selling design and simulation software, test instruments and services to customers in communications, aerospace and defense, semiconductors, automotive and general electronics[1][2]. The company is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (August-October 2026) on 2026-11-19[3], and the key question is how much of Keysight's AI data center test demand it can turn into revenue. In the most recent reported quarter, the third quarter ended July 31, 2026, revenue was $1.846 billion, up 36% (31% on a core basis), orders were $2.091 billion, up 56%, non-GAAP operating margin was 33.2% and non-GAAP EPS was $3.07[4][5]. On August 18 management guided fourth-quarter revenue of $1.930 billion to $1.950 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.34 to $3.40, which at the midpoint implies full-year revenue growth of about 32% and EPS growth of about 60%[4][5]; a November 2 8-K said the company was not updating that outlook and that demand across its end markets remains strong[3]. As of November 10, 2026, the analyst consensus compiled by Drillr stood at $1.946 billion of fourth-quarter revenue (6 analysts) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.37 (7 analysts), essentially in line with the midpoint of company guidance[6].

Three things matter most in this report. The first is whether commercial communications can hold the third quarter's $1.006 billion of revenue and 56% growth, because the business now makes up more than half of company revenue and is the main reason growth jumped from 8% in fiscal 2025 to more than 30%[7][8][9]. The second is whether revenue reaches the $1.950 billion top of guidance: third-quarter orders exceeded revenue by about $245 million, and management says demand is not the bottleneck while parts supply is, so fourth-quarter revenue will show directly how fast backlog is being delivered[10][11]. The third is whether margins hold once the one-time second-quarter tariff refund is stripped out: third-quarter non-GAAP gross margin was about 69% and operating margin 33.2%, already above the company's 31%-32% long-term target, and whether fourth-quarter EPS reaches the $3.40 top of guidance will test whether that profit level reflects sustainable mix improvement or one-time leverage from revenue beating guidance[12][13].

Company Background and Business Structure

Keysight's business is driven mainly by customers' research and development needs; it serves about 40,000 end customers each year and traces its heritage to more than 80 years of measurement science[14]. The 10-K says revenue comes primarily from R&D applications and to a lesser degree from manufacturing and operations, with products covering the customer workflow from design and validation through manufacturing, deployment and optimization[1]. In October 2025 the company completed three acquisitions with existing cash: it bought UK network test company Spirent for about $1.415 billion net of cash acquired and, to meet regulatory conditions, sold Spirent's high-speed Ethernet, network security and channel emulation lines to Viavi for $399 million; it also bought Synopsys's Optical Solutions Group for $578 million and Ansys's PowerArtist business for $26 million[15]. On November 2, 2026, the company announced that Neil Dougherty, CFO for the past 13 years, will step down on December 18 and be succeeded by Jason Kary, president of the Electronic Industrial Solutions Group[3].

The company has two reporting segments, and the Communications Solutions Group (CSG) contributes about 70% of revenue. In fiscal 2025 CSG revenue was $3.726 billion and Electronic Industrial Solutions Group (EISG) revenue was $1.649 billion, about 69% and 31% of the total[16][9]; CSG serves commercial communications (wireless, wireline or data center ecosystem, and enterprise networks) and aerospace, defense and government, while EISG serves semiconductors, general electronics and automotive and energy[17][18]. By end market, fiscal 2025 revenue was $2.488 billion from commercial communications, $1.238 billion from aerospace, defense and government and $1.649 billion from electronic industrial[16]. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, the $1.846 billion of revenue included $1.006 billion from commercial communications, $339 million from aerospace, defense and government and $501 million from electronic industrial, with Spirent adding $61 million of incremental revenue; management said software and services make up about 33% of revenue and annual recurring revenue about 24%[7][19][5].

Keysight's sales and production structure is why orders lead revenue. More than 80% of the business comes from customer interactions with the direct sales force, supplemented by more than 800 channel partner agreements and e-commerce and telesales channels[20]. Penang, Malaysia, is the largest site for final assembly, tuning, calibration and test; technology centers in Santa Rosa, California, Colorado Springs, Colorado, and Boeblingen, Germany, make differentiated parts such as microwave monolithic integrated circuits, optical components and high-speed probes, while contract manufacturers mainly handle assembly and circuit boards; the company typically builds and configures finished products after receiving firm orders[21]. By geography, fiscal 2025 revenue was $1.869 billion from the United States, $938 million from China (about 17.5%) and $2.568 billion from the rest of the world[22].

Financial History and Current Position

Keysight's revenue bottomed in fiscal 2024 and returned to growth in fiscal 2025. Revenue fell from $5.464 billion in fiscal 2023 to $4.979 billion in fiscal 2024, then rose 8% to $5.375 billion in fiscal 2025; orders over the same years were $5.190 billion, $5.033 billion and $5.452 billion[9]. Fiscal 2025 GAAP gross margin was 62.1%, about 1 percentage point lower than a year earlier, mainly because of tariffs and unfavorable mix; R&D expense was $1.007 billion, SG&A was $1.474 billion, GAAP operating income was $876 million (a 16.3% margin) and net income was $850 million[23]. Operating cash flow that year was $1.409 billion, capital spending $128 million and buybacks $377 million, and the company spent $2.022 billion of cash on acquisitions[24]; backlog at the end of October 2025 was $2.697 billion, most of which the company said it would recognize as revenue within six months[25].

Growth accelerated in each of the first three quarters of fiscal 2026. First-quarter revenue was $1.600 billion (up 23%, 14% core) and orders were $1.645 billion[26]; second-quarter revenue was about $1.72 billion after a $40 million reduction for refunded tariff surcharges, or about $1.76 billion and up 35% excluding it, with orders of about $2.05 billion, up 56%[13]; third-quarter revenue was $1.846 billion (up 36%, 31% core) and orders were $2.091 billion (up 56%)[27][5]. In the third quarter, GAAP gross margin was 65.8%, GAAP operating income $461 million (a 24.9% margin) and GAAP net income $397 million; non-GAAP gross margin was about 69%, operating margin 33.2% and non-GAAP EPS $3.07, compared with $1.72 a year earlier[28][4][5].

The balance sheet has stayed comfortable through the growth surge, but delivering the backlog is tying up more purchase commitments. Third-quarter operating cash flow was $437 million and free cash flow $403 million, with nine-month free cash flow of $1.282 billion[4][10]; buybacks for the fiscal year to date totaled about $517 million, and $983 million remained under the repurchase authorization[5][29]. At the end of July, cash and equivalents were $2.605 billion ($2.622 billion including restricted cash), senior notes had a par value of $2.550 billion, of which $700 million is due within a year, and a $750 million revolving credit facility was available[5][29][10]. Inventory was $1.047 billion, flat with $1.050 billion at the end of October 2025, but commitments to contract manufacturers and suppliers rose from $487 million to $762 million, which the 10-Q attributes mainly to advance purchase orders placed to fulfill a strong order backlog[10][30].

Operating Model

Keysight's revenue is the sum of three end markets, and it also equals backlog delivered plus orders booked and shipped within the same quarter. In the third quarter, commercial communications contributed $1.006 billion, aerospace, defense and government $339 million and electronic industrial $501 million, for a total of $1.846 billion[7]; orders of $2.091 billion exceeded revenue, a book-to-bill ratio of about 1.13, with the difference flowing into backlog[10]. Customers buy equipment during R&D to validate new standards such as 1.6T Ethernet and 6G, then buy production test equipment when they add capacity, so orders lead revenue, and the company keeps an order acceptance policy under which most orders are delivered within six months[17][31]; the near-term ceiling on revenue depends on whether parts and new-product capacity can turn orders into shipments in time, and management says a product refresh cycle is already under way[11].

On the profit side, non-GAAP operating income equals revenue times non-GAAP gross margin, minus R&D and SG&A expense. Third-quarter non-GAAP gross margin was about 69%, operating expenses were $661 million and operating margin was 33.2%, with a 66% operating margin incremental in the core business[5]; reconciling GAAP to non-GAAP net income adds back $72 million of acquisition-related amortization, $47 million of share-based compensation and $28 million of acquisition and integration costs, with a fixed 14% non-GAAP tax rate[32]. Gross margin depends on mix (CSG gross margin of 70.8% versus 64.1% at EISG), absorption of fixed manufacturing costs by volume, tariff costs and the margins of acquired businesses[33][34][28]; management's goal is an operating margin incremental above 40% and about 80% of more than $100 million of cost synergies realized on a run-rate basis by the end of fiscal 2026[12][31]. Working backward from the company's fourth-quarter guidance midpoint of $3.37 per share, about 172 million shares and the 14% tax rate gives non-GAAP pretax income of about $670 million[4][32].

On the cash side, operating cash flow equals net income plus non-cash items such as amortization and share-based compensation, adjusted for working capital, and free cash flow is what remains after capital spending. Between the end of October 2025 and the end of July 2026, receivables rose from $939 million to $1.067 billion and deferred revenue from $652 million to $707 million, showing that growth both tied up receivables and brought in customer prepayments[10]. The $762 million of purchase commitments will turn into inventory and payables as parts arrive, then into revenue and receivables as products ship, so they represent a future draw on working capital[30]. Quarterly backlog is disclosed only in the annual report, and the 10-Q gives only remaining performance obligations excluding contracts of one year or less ($616 million at the end of July), so between annual reports the book-to-bill ratio is the only approximate read on backlog[35][25].

Industry and Competitive Position

Keysight leads the electronic test and measurement industry in scale and breadth. The 10-K says none of its competitors offer the equivalent range of products and services at its scale, and that competitors include divisions of large diversified companies and regional rivals that are more specialized in particular markets[2]; its differentiation comes from microwave chips, optical parts and high-speed components developed in its own technology centers, which deliver performance not commercially available[21]. The limit of this comparison is that the company does not disclose market share and describes competitors only by category, so the size of its lead cannot be quantified.

AI data centers are the largest current source of growth. Management says transceiver makers are using Keysight's 224G digital communication analyzers to ramp 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers, switch designers use its emulators to validate network performance, and hyperscalers are building its pre-silicon emulation into their development pipelines[36]; management sized AI-related business at about 10% of company revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 and put first-half fiscal 2026 AI business at $500 million to $600 million, close to the whole prior year[26][31]. Hyperscalers contribute about 10% of the business directly but have a larger downstream influence across the ecosystem[37]. Defense modernization (advanced radar, autonomous platforms and low-Earth-orbit satellites) and semiconductor capacity expansion (advanced nodes, high-bandwidth memory and silicon photonics) are two further demand lines[36]; the industry constraint sits on the supply side, with management saying demand is not the limiter and near-term revenue is constrained by parts supply[11].

Core Debates

Keysight's commercial communications revenue grew 56% in its fiscal third quarter, and wireline overtook wireless for the first time. Can the business hold above $1 billion with growth near 50% in the fourth quarter, and how much of that growth comes from transceiver capacity build-outs that are more likely to fade?

This debate sets the main axis of the company's profit, because commercial communications is now more than half of revenue and CSG operating margin has risen from 26.1% a year earlier to 34.0%[7][33]. Third-quarter commercial communications revenue was $1.006 billion, up 56%, and nine-month revenue was $2.622 billion, up 43%; the 10-Q attributes the growth to customer R&D spending on terabit solutions and the expansion of 400G/800G/1.6T transceiver manufacturing capacity[7][8]. Management said wireline orders more than doubled year over year and wireline revenue exceeded wireless for the first time in the third quarter[36][5].

The comparison base for this quarter is about $660 million of commercial communications revenue a year earlier, derived by subtracting the prior year's nine-month $1.828 billion from fiscal 2025's full-year $2.488 billion[16][7]. The transmission chain runs from hyperscaler AI capital spending to switch-chip, transceiver and interconnect makers developing and ramping new products such as 1.6T, which generates orders for R&D validation and production test equipment, flows into commercial communications revenue and CSG's 70.8% gross margin, and finally reaches company operating income[33]. An alternative explanation is that part of the growth comes from transceiver makers ordering in bulk during the 1.6T production ramp: management said the wireline R&D-to-manufacturing split was historically about 80:20 and closer to two-thirds to one-third over the last two quarters[37], and manufacturing orders move with customers' capacity cycles.

In the fourth quarter, watch whether commercial communications revenue stays at or above $1.006 billion, whether CSG operating margin holds above 32%, whether management sizes the full-year AI business, and whether manufacturing exceeds 40% of wireline. If commercial communications growth falls below 40%, the third-quarter acceleration more likely reflected concentrated capacity orders; if CSG operating margin drops below 32%, the profit quality of growth is declining. The current evidence cannot yet separate how much growth is R&D-driven and how much is capacity-driven, which is the gap the fourth-quarter report can fill.

Keysight booked more than $2 billion of orders in each of the past two quarters, and management says demand is not the constraint; parts supply is. Can fourth-quarter revenue reach the top of its $1.95 billion guidance and start turning backlog into revenue?

The gap between orders and revenue sets the starting point for fiscal 2027 revenue and determines whether today's high growth means "strong demand, slow delivery" or "demand already at a peak." Third-quarter orders were $2.091 billion (up 56%, 52% core) and revenue $1.846 billion (up 36%), a book-to-bill ratio of about 1.13; second-quarter orders were about $2.05 billion, a ratio of about 1.19, and the first-quarter ratio was about 1.03[10][5][13][26]. Management said its base case for fourth-quarter orders is slightly above the third quarter in line with seasonality, and the head of sales expressed confidence that orders would exceed $2 billion for a third consecutive quarter[38].

Supply constraints are at the center of this debate. Management said demand is not the limiter, the supply bottleneck has shifted from internal new-product capacity to incoming parts, and the company has begun planning supply 18 months or more ahead and redesigning some products to accommodate second sources[11]; the 10-Q shows purchase commitments rising from $487 million to $762 million to fulfill backlog[30]. Aerospace and defense revenue growth slowed from 24% in the second quarter to 14% in the third, which management attributed to backlog building under supply constraints rather than slower demand[13][8][39]. An alternative explanation is that some orders were placed early as lead times lengthened, so a high book-to-bill ratio may not all represent real demand; fourth-quarter revenue a year earlier was about $1.419 billion and orders about $1.533 billion, both derived by subtracting the prior nine months from the annual report's full-year figures[9][28][10].

In the fourth quarter, watch whether revenue reaches $1.950 billion, whether orders exceed the third quarter's $2.091 billion, whether book-to-bill falls back to 1.0-1.1, whether aerospace and defense growth returns above 15%, and how year-end backlog and purchase commitments change. If revenue comes in below $1.930 billion, supply constraints are heavier than management described; if orders fall below $2 billion, year-end demand is weaker than management assumed. Year-end backlog will not be disclosed until the annual report, and it is uncertain whether the earnings call will give direction first.

Keysight's non-GAAP operating margin reached 33.2% in its fiscal third quarter, above its 31%-32% long-term target. Management calls the upper-60s gross margin sustainable but says the one-time tariff refund in the second quarter will not repeat. Can fourth-quarter EPS reach the $3.40 top of guidance without gross margin slipping?

At the midpoint, company guidance implies fiscal 2026 EPS growth of about 60%, far above revenue growth of about 32%, so how much of the margin gain is sustainable determines the fiscal 2027 profit starting point[5]. Third-quarter GAAP gross margin was 65.8% (61.7% a year earlier), which the 10-Q attributes to volume, favorable mix and acquired businesses, partly offset by people costs and acquisition amortization[28]; non-GAAP gross margin was about 69% and operating margin 33.2%, up 820 basis points, with a 66% core operating margin incremental[5].

The second-quarter tariff refund complicates year-over-year comparisons. IEEPA tariff refunds reduced second-quarter revenue by $40 million and costs and expenses by $97 million, adding a net $57 million to nine-month operating income and about 1.5 percentage points to gross margin[13][40]. Management said gross margin excluding tariff effects was about 68% in the second quarter (the second-quarter call's adjusted figure was 67.6%) and 69% in the third, called an upper-60s gross margin sustainable, and said the more-than-$100 million synergy target is substantially de-risked[12][13]. In the transmission chain, a rising share of high-margin CSG and AI R&D solutions, volume absorption of fixed manufacturing costs and acquisition synergies lift gross margin and lower the expense ratio, which then passes through the 14% non-GAAP tax rate and about 172 million shares into EPS, while tariffs and parts costs push the other way[32][4]. An alternative explanation is that third-quarter margins benefited from one-time leverage as revenue beat guidance, and if fourth-quarter revenue lands only at the middle of guidance while parts costs rise, gross margin could return to 67%-68%.

The fourth-quarter comparison base is about $1.91 of non-GAAP EPS a year earlier, derived from the guidance midpoint of $3.37 representing roughly 76% growth[4][5]. Watch whether EPS reaches $3.40, whether non-GAAP gross margin stays near 69%, whether operating margin holds at 33% or more, and what management says about the share of synergies achieved by year end. If gross margin falls below 67%, mix or parts costs have begun to erode profit; if the incremental margin falls below 40%, expense growth has caught up with revenue.

Keysight's Electronic Industrial Solutions Group grew only 6% in fiscal 2025 but rose 21% in the third quarter with a 31% operating margin. Can growth driven by semiconductor capacity expansion and AI server component testing continue in the fourth quarter?

EISG has historically been the company's most cyclical and lower-margin business, and whether it has also entered an AI-driven upcycle determines whether company growth rests on commercial communications alone. In fiscal 2025 EISG revenue grew only 6%, with semiconductors and general electronics up and automotive and energy down[41]; in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 EISG revenue was $501 million, up 21% (about 4 points from acquisitions), gross margin rose from 57.4% to 64.1% and operating margin from 22.3% to 31.0%[34].

The 10-Q attributes the growth to AI-driven demand for advanced semiconductor technologies and fab capacity, next-generation circuit board interconnects and capacitors, software-defined vehicles and digital health[34]; management said orders grew by meaningful double digits in all three markets and semiconductors set another record on capacity expansion for advanced nodes, high-bandwidth memory and silicon photonics[36]. The comparison base for this quarter is about $429 million of EISG revenue a year earlier, derived by subtracting the prior nine months' $1.220 billion from fiscal 2025's full-year $1.649 billion[16][7]. The transmission chain runs from fab expansion and rising AI server component complexity to orders for wafer test, component test and R&D solutions, into EISG revenue, and then through volume absorption and mix into gross and operating margin. An alternative explanation is that growth is concentrated in phased capacity investment for fabs and AI components, while underlying demand in automotive and energy and general electronics remains weak.

In the fourth quarter, watch whether EISG revenue exceeds $515 million, whether operating margin stays above 30%, whether automotive and energy orders keep growing, and how disclosure changes once EISG reports to the CSG president from December; the company has said EISG will remain a separately reported financial segment[3]. If EISG growth falls below 12%, organic growth has returned to single digits; if operating margin falls below 28%, the margin improvement is hard to sustain.

Risks and Falsifiers

Trade and export controls act directly on China revenue and gross margin. China revenue was $938 million in fiscal 2025, about 17.5% of the total, and when U.S.-China relations are tense customers or suppliers may be added to U.S. restricted lists, forcing the company to suspend business with them[22]; tariffs and unfavorable mix cut fiscal 2025 gross margin by about 1 percentage point, and the 10-Q also cites the recently introduced Section 301 "forced labor" tariffs[23][19]. If the fourth quarter brings no disclosure of new export restrictions affecting orders and Asia Pacific revenue keeps growing year over year, the impact of this risk on the current understanding is limited.

The CFO handover and management restructuring coincide with the company's first outlook for fiscal 2027. Neil Dougherty, who has run finance for 13 years, steps down on December 18 and is succeeded by EISG president Jason Kary, while EISG will report to CSG president Kailash Narayanan[3]; management had said it would give specific first-quarter guidance with the fourth-quarter report[11]. What is exposed is first-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance and the full-year framework, as well as disclosure for EISG, which was about 27% of third-quarter revenue[27]. If the fourth-quarter call delivers first-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance as usual and EISG is still reported separately on an unchanged basis, this risk has not materialized.

The risk of an AI capacity cycle rolling over is concentrated in wireline manufacturing. Transceiver and interconnect makers' capacity orders are concentrated in the 1.6T production ramp, and if customers slow capital spending, manufacturing orders will fall before R&D orders; third-quarter commercial communications revenue was $1.006 billion, about one-third of wireline came from manufacturing, and CSG operating income was $458 million[7][37][33]. If fourth-quarter commercial communications growth is at least 52% and management says R&D remains above 60% of the mix, this risk has not yet appeared.

Persistent supply constraints would keep revenue below what orders imply. Parts shortages and new-product capacity limits could prevent timely delivery of backlog, and if longer lead times lead customers to place duplicate or early orders, later orders could fall back. Third-quarter orders exceeded revenue by about $245 million, purchase commitments were $762 million at the end of July and backlog was $2.697 billion at the end of October 2025[10][30][25]. If fourth-quarter revenue is at least $1.950 billion and book-to-bill is between 1.0 and 1.1, this risk is falsified.

Margins may have already peaked. The second-quarter tariff refund lifted fiscal 2026 profit, adding a net $57 million to nine-month operating income[40], and management acknowledged that this will not repeat[12]; tight parts supply, ongoing tariffs and rising integration and people costs could push gross and operating margins back to the long-term target range. Third-quarter non-GAAP operating margin was 33.2%, above the 31%-32% long-term target[5], and on quarterly revenue of about $1.94 billion each percentage point of margin is worth about $19 million of operating income. If fourth-quarter non-GAAP gross margin is at least 69% and operating margin at least 33%, this risk is falsified.

A downturn in the semiconductor and electronics equipment cycle would hit EISG first. EISG revenue moves with fab capital spending and electronics manufacturing investment, and slower capacity expansion or continued weakness in automotive and energy could return growth and margins to fiscal 2025 levels; third-quarter EISG revenue was $501 million and operating income $155 million, while fiscal 2025 EISG revenue grew only 6%[34][41]. If fourth-quarter EISG revenue growth is at least 20% and operating margin at least 30%, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

• Commercial communications revenue: $1.006 billion in the third quarter, up 56%, against about $660 million a year earlier[7][16]. Watch whether it stays at or above $1.006 billion; growth below 40% would falsify the current view.
• CSG operating margin and wireline manufacturing share: 34.0%, with wireline R&D to manufacturing at roughly two-thirds to one-third[33][37]. Watch whether margin holds above 32% and whether manufacturing exceeds 40%; margin below 32% would falsify the current view.
• Revenue and orders: revenue of $1.846 billion, orders of $2.091 billion and book-to-bill of about 1.13[10]. Watch whether revenue reaches $1.950 billion and orders exceed $2.091 billion; revenue below $1.930 billion or orders below $2 billion would falsify the current view.
• Aerospace and defense revenue: $339 million, up 14%[7][8]. Watch whether growth returns above 15%; further slowing would require the supply explanation to be re-examined.
• Non-GAAP EPS and gross margin: $3.07, with gross margin of about 69% and operating margin of 33.2%[5]. Watch whether EPS reaches $3.40 and gross margin holds near 69%; gross margin below 67% or an incremental margin below 40% would falsify the current view.
• EISG revenue and operating margin: $501 million, up 21%, with a 31.0% margin[34]. Watch whether revenue exceeds $515 million and margin stays above 30%; growth below 12% or margin below 28% would falsify the current view.

Conclusion

Keysight's business is driven by customers' R&D and capacity spending on new standards, with orders leading revenue and supply setting the pace of delivery. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue was $1.846 billion and orders $2.091 billion, commercial communications grew 56%, non-GAAP operating margin was 33.2%, and at the end of July cash stood at $2.605 billion against $700 million of notes due within a year[7][10][5][29]. The central unresolved relationship is how much of the AI data center surge comes from durable R&D demand versus concentrated transceiver capacity orders, and whether gross margin near 69% and operating margin above 33% can be sustained by mix and synergies once the tariff refund no longer repeats.

Between the third-quarter report and November 11, the KEYS-related material that could be found consisted mainly of the company's own product and trade-show press releases, customer case studies and the CFO transition announcement, and Drillr's broker research library did not cover the company. As a result, no independent outside interpretation with a verifiable author and argument that directly addresses these debates was found; the judgments here rest only on company disclosures and management statements, which should not be treated as an outside consensus, and company press releases should not be read as third-party views.

Going forward, if fourth-quarter revenue approaches $1.950 billion, orders stay above $2 billion, commercial communications growth holds near 50% with management saying R&D is still the majority, non-GAAP gross margin holds near 69% and EISG growth is at least 20%, the current understanding of "strong demand, constrained delivery and sustainable margins" would be clearly strengthened. Conversely, if revenue comes in below $1.930 billion, orders fall below $2 billion, commercial communications growth drops below 40%, or gross margin returns below 67%, the third-quarter acceleration would look more like concentrated capacity orders and one-time leverage, and this understanding would need to be marked down.

Sources

[1] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · business overview and revenue mix by application · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[2] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · competition · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[3] KEYS 8-K filed 2026-11-02 · CFO succession and Q4 outlook not updated · 2026-11-02 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000038/exhibit991keystransitionpr.htm

[4] KEYS 8-K filed 2026-08-18 · Q3 FY2026 results summary and Q4 outlook · 2026-08-18 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000029/exhibit991-q326pressrelease.htm

[5] KEYS Q3 FY2026 earnings call 2026-08-18 · CFO Q3 results, segments and Q4 guidance · 2026-08-18 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[6] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-11-10) · KEYS quarter ending 2026-10-31 · 2026-11-10 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · revenue by end market three and nine months · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[8] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · CSG commercial communications and aerospace/defense drivers · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[9] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · orders, revenue and cash flow fiscal 2023-2025 · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[10] KEYS 8-K filed 2026-08-18 · orders, segment results and balance sheet · 2026-08-18 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000029/exhibit991-q326pressrelease.htm

[11] KEYS Q3 FY2026 earnings call 2026-08-18 · supply chain as governor of near-term revenue · 2026-08-18 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[12] KEYS Q3 FY2026 earnings call 2026-08-18 · gross margin sustainability, leverage and synergies · 2026-08-18 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[13] KEYS Q2 FY2026 earnings call 2026-05-19 · CFO Q2 results and tariff refund one-time impacts · 2026-05-19 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[14] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · customer base and installed base · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[15] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · Spirent, OSG and PowerArtist acquisitions · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[16] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · revenue by end market and segment fiscal 2023-2025 · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[17] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · Communications Solutions Group and commercial communications market · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[18] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · Electronic Industrial Solutions Group and semiconductor market · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[19] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · Spirent incremental revenue and IEEPA tariff refund impact · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[20] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · direct sales and channel partners · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[21] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · manufacturing and materials · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[22] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · revenue by country and export restrictions · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[23] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · results of operations fiscal 2023-2025 · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[24] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · cash flow, capital expenditure and repurchases fiscal 2025 · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[25] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · backlog at October 31 2025 · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm

[26] KEYS Q1 FY2026 earnings call 2026-02-23 · CFO Q1 results and AI exposure sizing · 2026-02-23 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[27] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · orders and revenue three and nine months ended July 31 2026 · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[28] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · GAAP results of operations three and nine months · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[29] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · repurchase authorization, debt and cash · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[30] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · supplier commitments for order backlog · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[31] KEYS Q2 FY2026 earnings call 2026-05-19 · AI business size, backlog policy, acquisition revenue and synergies · 2026-05-19 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[32] KEYS 8-K filed 2026-08-18 · non-GAAP net income and EPS reconciliation · 2026-08-18 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000029/exhibit991-q326pressrelease.htm

[33] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · CSG gross and operating margin · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[34] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · EISG revenue and margin · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[35] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · remaining performance obligations · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[36] KEYS Q3 FY2026 earnings call 2026-08-18 · CEO on wireline AI orders, wireless, defense and EISG · 2026-08-18 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[37] KEYS Q3 FY2026 earnings call 2026-08-18 · wireline R&D vs manufacturing mix and hyperscaler share · 2026-08-18 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[38] KEYS Q3 FY2026 earnings call 2026-08-18 · Q4 orders expectation and pipeline · 2026-08-18 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[39] KEYS Q3 FY2026 earnings call 2026-08-18 · aerospace and defense revenue vs backlog · 2026-08-18 · earnings-call · https://investor.keysight.com/

[40] KEYS 10-Q filed 2026-09-02 · net impact of IEEPA tariff refunds by segment (nine months) · 2026-09-02 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104626000036/keys-20260731.htm

[41] KEYS 10-K filed 2025-12-17 · EISG revenue and gross margin fiscal 2025 · 2025-12-17 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601046/000160104625000127/keys-20251031.htm