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[DE] Deere: Q4 2026 earnings test for large ag margins and construction

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Summary

Deere grew Q3 2026 revenue 5% to $12.61 billion as construction offset a 6% drop in large ag sales; Q4 tests whether margins hold without tariff refunds.

Deere & Company sells agricultural, turf, construction and forestry equipment worldwide under the John Deere brand, and its financial services arm, John Deere Financial, funds dealer inventory and farmers' equipment purchases[1][2]. According to the Drillr earnings calendar, Deere will hold its earnings call on 2026-11-25 to report Deere Q4 2026 earnings, covering the Fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (three months ended November 1, 2026) and full fiscal year 2026[3]. In the latest disclosed quarter, the third quarter of fiscal 2026 ended August 2, net sales and revenues were $12.608 billion, up 5% year over year, and net income attributable to Deere was $1.379 billion, up 7%; net sales fell 6% in Production & Precision Agriculture (PPA), the segment that holds large ag, while Small Agriculture & Turf (SAT) and Construction & Forestry (CF) grew 12% and 18%[4]. Deere gives only full-year guidance: in August it raised the fiscal 2026 net income range to $4.75 billion to $5 billion, guided equipment operations operating cash flow to $5 billion to $5.5 billion and set financial services net income at about $870 million[5]. Netting out the $3.808 billion earned in the first nine months[4], that implies roughly $0.94 billion to $1.19 billion for the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter consensus compiled by Drillr is EPS of $4.03 (13 analysts, range $3.92 to $4.39) and equipment operations net sales of about $10.42 billion (9 analysts), corresponding to net income of about $1.09 billion[3].

Three things matter most in this report. The first is whether PPA's fourth-quarter margin can stay at or above about 8.7%: PPA's nine-month margin was only 11.8%, against 16.4% a year earlier[6], and working back from full-year guidance of roughly a 10% sales decline with an 11% to 12% margin[5], the fourth quarter needs about 8.7% to hold the bottom of that range. This quarter carries no tariff refunds and has one fewer week than a year earlier[7][8], so it is the clearest test of the profit floor in a large-ag trough. The second is whether CF can hold the roughly 10.3% margin of the prior-year quarter once the easy comparison and refunds are gone: CF earned a 12.1% margin in the third quarter, but its 8 points of price realization came mainly from lapping heavy retail incentives a year earlier, and 55% of the year's tariff refunds were allocated to CF[9][7], so the fourth-quarter margin will separate real infrastructure and data-center demand from one-off help. The third is credit cost at John Deere Financial: the third-quarter provision was $80 million, slightly below a year earlier[10], but $427 million of agriculture and turf retail receivables had already stopped accruing income[11]. If the fourth-quarter provision exceeds $100 million and non-performing balances keep rising at year end, weak farm income will have started to reach financial services profit.

Company Background and Business Structure

Deere is a farm and construction equipment maker whose core is equipment sales, supported by a financing business. It uses a 52/53-week fiscal year; fiscal 2025 ended November 2, 2025 and contained 53 weeks, with the extra week falling in the fourth quarter[8]. In fiscal 2025, consolidated net sales and revenues were $45.684 billion, net income attributable to Deere was $5.027 billion and return on beginning stockholders' equity was 22.0%[1].

The equipment business has three segments, and PPA is the largest. PPA serves production-scale growers of corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and sugarcane with four-wheel-drive or track tractors, row crop tractors, harvesters and cotton pickers; in fiscal 2025 it generated $17.311 billion of net sales, or 45% of equipment operations net sales, while SAT generated $10.224 billion, or 26%, and CF generated $11.382 billion, or 29%[1]. Segment operating profit was $2.671 billion, $1.207 billion and $1.028 billion, respectively[12]. The product-line split for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 shows that CF comprised $1.556 billion of construction, $572 million of compact construction, $1.146 billion of roadbuilding and $283 million of forestry, while SAT comprised $2.425 billion of small agriculture and $875 million of turf[13].

The United States is Deere's largest market, but PPA has meaningful exposure to South America and Europe. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, PPA revenue included $1.737 billion from the United States, $731 million from Latin America and $563 million from Western Europe, and U.S. revenue across all segments totaled $6.814 billion[13]. On the same quarter's call, management said large-ag demand was soft in South America and Europe because of high input costs, high interest rates and pressure on farm profitability, while North American demand was stable at low levels[9].

Deere sells through independent dealers, and its financing business is tightly linked to equipment sales. Equipment revenue is recognized on shipment to the dealer; Deere grants dealers interest-free periods of one to twelve months and records the estimated cost of retail incentives as a reduction of the sales price at the time of sale, and retail notes acquired by the sales companies are immediately sold to the financial services operations[2]. John Deere Financial reported fiscal 2025 revenue of $6.289 billion and net income of $890 million, with net income up 28%[14], or about 18% of group net income attributable to Deere.

Financial History and Current Position

Fiscal 2025 was a down year for large ag, yet Deere's profit and cash flow remained substantial. Of the $5.027 billion of net income attributable to Deere, equipment operations contributed $4.137 billion and financial services $890 million[1]. The annual report attributed lower shipments to economic uncertainty, low commodity prices, elevated interest rates in the first half and higher used inventory, while construction equipment was held back by lower rental purchases and slower multi-family and commercial construction[15]. Equipment operations generated $5.100 billion of operating cash flow and consolidated operating cash flow was $7.459 billion; by cutting repurchases, Deere returned $2.8 billion less cash to shareholders than in the prior year[16].

Growth in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 came from small ag and construction, while PPA was still shrinking. Third-quarter operating profit was $527 million in PPA, $622 million in SAT and $436 million in CF, changes of -9%, +28% and +84%, while financial services operating profit was $271 million, up 2%[4]; SAT's quarterly margin was 18.4% against 16.0% a year earlier[17]. Equipment operations net sales were $10.999 billion, research and development expense was $567 million, financial services net income attributable to Deere was $219 million versus $205 million, and the quarter's effective tax rate was 28.1% versus 21.2%[18].

Profit in the first nine months was lower than a year earlier, but equipment cash flow was stronger. Nine-month net income attributable to Deere was $3.808 billion, down 4%, with PPA operating profit falling from $2.066 billion to $1.372 billion while SAT and CF rose 30% and 67%[4], and the effective tax rate climbed from 18.7% to 24.8%[18]. Equipment operations operating cash flow was $4.012 billion versus $3.338 billion, capital expenditures were $716 million, repurchases $697 million and dividends $1.316 billion, and Deere estimated full-year capital expenditures at about $1.3 billion[19]. Direct tariff costs net of refunds were $502 million; after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were invalid, Deere recorded $382 million of tariff recoveries, about 80% of which had been received by August 2[7].

August's full-year guidance leaves little room in the fourth quarter. Besides net income of $4.75 billion to $5 billion, Deere cut PPA's full-year net sales guidance to about -10% and narrowed its margin to 11% to 12%, kept SAT at about +15% while raising its margin to 14.5% to 15.5%, and kept CF at about +20% while narrowing its margin to 10.5% to 11.5%; full-year direct tariff expense excluding refunds was set at about $1.1 billion, and guidance assumes no further refunds in the fourth quarter[5]. Equipment operations cash flow guidance implies roughly $1 billion to $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter, below the roughly $1.762 billion implied for the prior-year quarter[19][16].

Operating Model

Equipment revenue is set by units shipped, price net of incentives and currency. Equipment net sales roughly equal units shipped to dealers times unit price after incentives, translated at prevailing exchange rates; units depend on dealer orders and Deere's production schedule, and in 2026 Deere deliberately planned production a couple of percentage points below retail demand in both PPA and CF[20]. Financial services revenue roughly equals the average receivable and lease portfolio times its yield, and the average portfolio was 2% smaller year over year in the third quarter[21].

Segment profit is sensitive to both volume and price, and the effect shows up within the same quarter. Segment operating profit equals net sales minus materials, tariffs and manufacturing overhead, less R&D and selling, administrative and general expense; when shipments fall, fixed costs are spread across fewer units, while price realization in excess of cost inflation drops almost entirely to profit. In the third quarter, PPA profit fell because of lower shipments, sales mix and higher material costs, partly offset by price and currency[6], whereas CF profit rose on price realization, partly offset by higher selling, administrative, general and R&D expense[22].

Cash flow adds a layer of seasonal working capital on top of profit. Equipment cash flow roughly equals net income plus depreciation, minus changes in dealer receivables and inventory; inventories rose $405 million in the first nine months on seasonal factors and were $98 million higher than a year earlier[19], while at the start of the year Deere expected full-year equipment cash flow to be flat with 2025, with inventory reductions offsetting lower net income[8]. Whether inventory and receivables come down in the fourth quarter decides whether full-year cash flow lands within guidance, and how much room remains beyond dividends and repurchases.

Financial services profit lags the equipment cycle, and its credit quality reflects end customers' finances. Financial services profit roughly equals spread income minus provisions and expenses; receivables generally stop accruing income at 90 days delinquent and are written off at 120 days[11], so changes in non-performing balances usually appear before write-offs and provisions. The model's limits are that Deere does not disclose units by product, dealer inventory units or the dollar value of early order program (EOP) orders, and its industry outlook is the company's own estimate.

Industry and Competitive Position

Deere's brand is itself a competitive advantage in North America, but its industry is getting more crowded. The annual report lists the principal competitive factors as product performance, technology, quality, distribution, financing and customer service, and states that John Deere's brand recognition is a competitive factor in North America and many other parts of the world; it also says the agricultural equipment industry is becoming more competitive through the emergence and global expansion of many competitors[23]. Global competitors in agriculture and turf include AGCO, CLAAS, CNH Industrial, Kubota and Toro, and CF competitors include Caterpillar, Komatsu, Volvo, Hitachi, Doosan Bobcat, SANY and XCMG, among others[23].

Deere's August industry outlook shows agriculture and construction at opposite points in their cycles. For fiscal 2026, Deere sees U.S. and Canada large ag industry volumes down 15% to 20%, South American tractors and combines also down 15% to 20% and Europe flat; U.S. and Canada small ag and turf flat to up 5%; U.S. and Canada construction equipment up 5% to 10%, compact construction equipment up about 5%, global roadbuilding up about 10% and global forestry down about 10%[24].

Dealer financing is a structural feature of Deere's model, and it also concentrates risk. Retail notes from dealer sales flow straight into financial services, and the equipment operations are the financial services operations' major source of business[2]. That lets Deere support retail demand with financing and incentives when demand is weak, but it also means changes in farmer credit come straight back onto Deere's own statements. The available comparison is limited to the competitor list in the annual report, and the material contains no figures that allow a direct comparison of market share or margins across companies.

Core Debates

With large ag still at the bottom, can Deere's underproduce-to-protect-price approach hold PPA margins in the fourth quarter?

PPA is Deere's largest and historically most profitable business, and its margin is the best gauge of the profit floor in a trough. In fiscal 2025 PPA had net sales of $17.311 billion and operating profit of $2.671 billion[1][12]; in the first nine months of 2026 its margin fell from 16.4% to 11.8%[6] and operating profit was $694 million lower[4], the main reason group net income declined. The fourth quarter has no tariff refunds and is the only quarter of the year with one fewer week than a year earlier[7][8], so PPA's quarterly margin will reflect underlying shipments and costs more cleanly than earlier quarters did.

Third-quarter data offer some support for underproducing to protect price, but cost pressure has not gone away. PPA net sales were $3.998 billion in the third quarter, down 6%, with a 13.2% margin versus 13.6% a year earlier and price realization of +3 points, better than +1 point for the nine months[6]; on the call, price realization was put at +2.5 points[9]. Management plans to produce PPA a couple of percentage points below retail demand and has structured 2027 early order program pricing to fully cover expected inflation[20], while cutting full-year PPA net sales guidance to about -10% because of further softening in South America and Europe[5]. An alternative reading is that the cost problem is more persistent: PPA's cost of sales as a share of net sales rose from 71.3% to 73.1% over nine months, and the third quarter's 72.2% still included that quarter's refund credit[6][7].

The fourth-quarter baseline and transmission chain are both fairly clear. Subtracting the first nine months from the 2025 annual figures, PPA's fourth quarter of 2025 had about $4.740 billion of net sales, about $605 million of operating profit and a margin of about 12.8%, but that quarter had 14 weeks[1][12][4][8]. Working back from full-year guidance of about -10%, PPA's fourth-quarter 2026 net sales come to about $3.9 billion, and a margin of about 8.7% is needed for the year to land at the 11% floor. The chain runs as follows: low crop prices, high input costs and elevated interest rates lead large farms to postpone replacing high-horsepower tractors and combines, dealer orders fall, Deere produces below retail demand, lower shipments raise the burden of fixed factory costs, and the PPA margin declines; price realization and material and tariff costs determine how far it falls.

What remains unresolved is whether the margin decline comes mainly from volume or from cost. If it comes mainly from shipments, margins would recover as shipments rebound in 2027; if it comes mainly from materials and tariffs, margins would struggle to return to 2025 levels even with higher volumes. In the fourth quarter, watch whether the PPA margin stays at or above about 8.7% and the full year lands at 11% to 12%, whether price realization stays positive, whether net sales come in near about $3.9 billion, and Deere's first 2027 large-ag industry outlook for North and South America. If South American and European demand keeps falling in 2027, or PPA's cost ratio rises above 74% without refunds, the view that shipments have bottomed and margins will recover with them would be weakened.

Can infrastructure and data-center orders keep Deere's construction business earning once the easy comparison fades?

CF was Deere's fastest-growing business in 2026, and it held up group profit while large ag declined. In the first nine months CF net sales were $10.079 billion, up 26%, and operating profit was $1.134 billion, up 67%[4]; full-year guidance calls for net sales up about 20% and a margin of 10.5% to 11.5%[5]. Fourth-quarter pricing and margin will decide whether that growth carries into 2027.

The order evidence is strong, but part of the margin improvement comes from one-off factors. Third-quarter CF net sales were $3.618 billion, up 18%, with a 12.1% margin versus 7.7% a year earlier and price realization of +8 points[22]. Management said it had four to five months of orders on hand, more than the typical two to three, with demand coming from large infrastructure, data center and energy projects and from the expansion of independent rental companies and dealers' own rental fleets; 30% to 35% of earthmoving transactions now start as rentals[20][9]. An alternative reading is that the improvement is largely one-off: the 8 points of price realization mainly reflect lapping heavy retail incentives a year earlier[9], CF received 55% of the $382 million of refunds booked over three quarters[7], and the full rollout of Deere's new in-house excavator line will take three to four years, raising early costs[20].

The fourth-quarter comparison is not demanding, but the second-quarter peak shows how volatile the margin can be. CF earned a 14.8% margin with +3 points of price in the second quarter[25] and an 11.3% margin with +4 points of price over nine months[22]. Working back from the annual report, CF's fourth quarter of 2025 had about $3.382 billion of net sales, about $347 million of operating profit and a margin of about 10.3%, and that quarter also included the 53rd week[1][12][4]. The chain runs as follows: infrastructure, data center and energy project starts, together with rental fleet expansion, drive purchases of excavators, loaders and roadbuilding equipment; backlogs lengthen, shipments rise and incentives shrink, lifting CF net sales and margin, with the lag from order to revenue roughly matching the four-to-five-month backlog.

What remains unresolved is how much of the third-quarter margin survives on a normal comparison base. In the fourth quarter, watch whether the CF margin stays at or above the prior-year level of about 10.3% and the full year lands at 10.5% to 11.5%, whether price realization holds around +3 points rather than falling toward zero, the months of order coverage and the 2027 U.S. and Canada construction outlook, and the direction of roadbuilding revenue ($1.146 billion in the third quarter) and forestry revenue ($283 million)[13]. If infrastructure or data-center projects slow, or the end of rental restocking returns order coverage to normal, or the loss of refunds and the ramp-up costs of the new excavators push the CF margin back below 10%, the view that construction orders can make up for farm-equipment profit would be weakened.

With farm incomes weak for a third year, will bad debts start rising at John Deere Financial?

Credit quality at the financing arm is the most direct reading of financial stress on farms. Financial services net income was $890 million in fiscal 2025[14], about 18% of the group's $5.027 billion of net income attributable to Deere[1]; the unit funds dealer inventory and farmers' equipment purchases, and Deere warns in its 10-Q that unfavorable large-ag conditions may bring lower sales volumes, higher sales incentives and elevated receivable write-offs[6].

Through the third quarter, credit costs had not clearly deteriorated. The third-quarter provision was $80 million versus $82 million a year earlier, write-offs were $94 million versus $98 million, and the nine-month provision was $207 million versus $245 million[10]; financial services net income rose on favorable financing spreads, partly offset by a 2% smaller average portfolio[21]. As of August 2, non-performing agriculture and turf retail receivables were $427 million and balances 30 to 89 days past due were $388 million[11]; wholesale receivables were $7.317 billion, about 20% below the $9.177 billion of a year earlier, consistent with lower dealer inventory[10]. An alternative reading is that credit stress has only been deferred: non-performing balances lead write-offs, so if year-end balances keep rising, provisions would increase in the first half of 2027.

The fourth-quarter comparison for financial services is distorted by last year's 53rd week and a special item. Financial services net income was $219 million in the third quarter of 2026 and $653 million over nine months, versus $597 million a year earlier[18]; working back from the annual report, the fourth quarter of 2025 came to about $293 million, which included the 53rd week, and the prior-year figures also benefited from a special item[14][21]. The chain runs as follows: low crop prices and high input costs squeeze cash flow at large crop farms and livestock operations, delinquencies and non-performing balances rise in retail installment and revolving accounts, write-offs and provisions climb and financial services net income falls; at the same time, borrowing costs falling faster than loan yields widens the spread and partly offsets the credit cost.

What remains unresolved is whether credit costs have already peaked or have merely been delayed. In the fourth quarter, watch whether the provision exceeds $100 million, whether year-end non-performing agriculture and turf balances exceed $470 million, whether full-year financial services net income reaches about $870 million, and whether wholesale receivables stay below last year's level. Another possibility is that strong demand from small ag and livestock customers and stabilizing used equipment prices mean credit costs have already peaked; if the fourth-quarter provision is flat or lower, net income below the prior-year quarter would simply reflect the 53rd week and the special item in the base. Conversely, if farmer and dealer credit deteriorates and provisions and write-offs rise in 2027, the cushion financial services provides to group profit would weaken.

Risks and Falsifiers

The loss of tariff refunds and a net increase in tariffs in 2027 would directly raise equipment cost of sales. The $382 million of refunds booked over the first three quarters is one-time, was allocated 20%, 25% and 55% to PPA, SAT and CF as a reduction of cost of sales, and guidance assumes no further refunds in the fourth quarter[7][5]. Management also said the Section 232 tariff cut affected only five months of 2026 results, and that without 2026-level refunds, tariff expense in 2027 will rise on a net basis compared with 2026[20]. This risk would be falsified if Deere's 2027 direct tariff cost comes in below the 2026 level net of refunds.

Equipment cash flow guidance depends partly on inventory reduction. Full-year guidance of $5 billion to $5.5 billion implies about $1 billion to $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter, against roughly $1.762 billion implied for the prior-year quarter[5][19][16]. Deere based its early-year view of flat cash flow on lower inventories[8], so if fourth-quarter dealer orders or retail sales are weaker than planned, rising inventory would squeeze cash flow and repurchases. This risk would not materialize if full-year equipment operations cash flow reaches $5 billion or more and year-end inventory is not higher year over year.

The bottom in large-ag demand could arrive later than hoped. Demand in South America and Europe softened further in August, and input costs and interest rates are still pressuring farm profitability[9], so 2027 could decline again. PPA's nine-month operating profit was $1.372 billion, $694 million below a year earlier[4], and a fourth-quarter margin below about 8.7% would put the full year under the 11% bottom of guidance. This risk would be falsified if Deere's 2027 North American large-ag outlook is flat or up and the PPA fourth-quarter margin is at least 11%.

Construction demand is concentrated in a few channels. CF growth relies on infrastructure, data centers and rental channel restocking, and global forestry is already down about 10% in the fiscal 2026 outlook[20][24]. Assuming full-year growth of about 20%, CF net sales come to about $13.7 billion, and each 1-point drop in the fourth-quarter margin on roughly $3.6 billion of quarterly sales would cut operating profit by about $36 million. This risk would not materialize if order coverage stays above four months and the 2027 U.S. and Canada construction equipment outlook calls for growth.

Deteriorating farmer credit would flow straight into financial services profit. On August 2, non-performing agriculture and turf retail receivables were $427 million and balances 30 to 89 days past due were $388 million[11], and those delinquencies could turn into write-offs in 2027; every $100 million of additional provision cuts financial services pretax profit by $100 million, against full-year net income guidance of about $870 million[5]. This risk would be falsified if the fourth-quarter provision is no higher than a year earlier and year-end non-performing balances are no higher than $427 million.

What to Watch Next

The following checkpoints bring together the measures in the fourth-quarter report that map to the three core debates and to cash flow.

  • PPA fourth-quarter margin: 13.2% in the third quarter, 11.8% for nine months and about 12.8% in the 14-week fourth quarter of 2025. Watch whether it stays at or above about 8.7% and the year lands at 11% to 12%; below 8.7% means the full year misses the bottom of guidance.
  • PPA price and cost ratio: third-quarter price was +3 points and the nine-month cost ratio was 73.1%. Watch whether price stays positive and what Deere says about 2027 early order pricing; a cost ratio above 74% points to a more persistent cost problem.
  • 2027 large-ag industry outlook: the 2026 outlook calls for declines of 15% to 20% in both U.S. and Canada and South America. A flat or higher first 2027 outlook would support the bottoming view, and a further decline would weaken it.
  • CF fourth-quarter margin: 12.1% in the third quarter against about 10.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Watch whether it stays at or above 10.3% and the year lands at 10.5% to 11.5%; below 10% would suggest the gain came mainly from the easy comparison and refunds.
  • CF price and order coverage: third-quarter price was +8 points and orders covered four to five months. Watch whether price holds around +3 and the 2027 U.S. and Canada construction outlook; coverage falling back to two to three months would falsify the demand case.
  • Financial services provision and non-performing balances: the third-quarter provision was $80 million and non-performing balances were $427 million. A provision above $100 million together with non-performing balances above $470 million would show credit stress beginning to materialize.
  • Financial services full-year net income and wholesale receivables: nine-month net income was $653 million and wholesale receivables were $7.317 billion. Watch whether the year reaches about $870 million and wholesale receivables stay below last year; a rebound in wholesale receivables would mean dealer destocking is unfinished.
  • Equipment operations cash flow: $4.012 billion over nine months against full-year guidance of $5 billion to $5.5 billion. Higher year-over-year inventory together with cash flow below guidance would falsify the cash outlook.

Conclusion

Deere's profit rests on three forces: large-ag shipments and pricing, construction orders and pricing, and the spread and credit cost of its financing arm. In the first nine months of fiscal 2026, the PPA margin fell from 16.4% to 11.8%[6], SAT and CF operating profit grew 30% and 67%[4], and $382 million of tariff refunds provided extra support[7], which allowed Deere to raise full-year net income guidance to $4.75 billion to $5 billion[5]. The central unresolved relationship is whether, in a fourth quarter with no refunds and one fewer week, PPA and CF margins can both hold their full-year ranges while credit costs at the financing arm stay stable.

Two independent analyses published after the third-quarter results read the situation in similar directions but with different emphasis. In an August 24 article for MarketBeat, Chris Markoch argued that third-quarter construction orders are "the clearest evidence yet that the AI infrastructure buildout is showing up in Deere's order book," that construction and infrastructure demand is offsetting a weak farm market, and he relayed management's view that the farm cycle is nearing its bottom[26]. In an August 26 article, Trefis accepted the view that large ag has bottomed but stressed that 2026 results were helped by $382 million of one-time tariff refunds that will directly weigh on next year's earnings, leaving the 2027 recovery pointed upward but uncertain in pace[27]. Both see the farm cycle near its bottom, and they diverge on earnings quality: MarketBeat treats CF growth as structural demand, the more optimistic side of the construction debate, while Trefis focuses on PPA and CF margins once refunds disappear, which maps to the large-ag debate and the tariff risk; both remain outside interpretations rather than established facts.

If the fourth quarter shows a PPA margin of at least about 8.7%, a CF margin of at least about 10.3%, positive price realization in both segments and a financial services provision no higher than $100 million, and Deere's 2027 large-ag outlook no longer calls for a decline, the current view that farm equipment has bottomed while construction provides support would be strengthened. Conversely, if PPA's cost ratio rises above 74% without refunds, CF order coverage falls back to normal, non-performing balances keep rising and equipment operations cash flow comes in below $5 billion, the profit decline would more likely stem from cost and credit rather than only from cyclically lower shipments.

Sources

[1] DE 10-K filed 2025-12-18 · 2025-12-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-K

[2] DE 10-K filed 2025-12-18 dealers and incentives · 2025-12-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-K

[3] Drillr earnings calendar 2026-11-10 DE Q4 FY2026 · 2026-11-10 · Drillr 汇总分析师预期 · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[4] DE 8-K filed 2026-08-20 Q3 2026 results · 2026-08-20 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=8-K

[5] DE Q3 2026 earnings call 2026-08-20 · 2026-08-20 · earnings-call · https://investor.deere.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx

[6] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 PPA · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[7] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 tariffs · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[8] DE 10-Q filed 2026-02-26 fiscal calendar and cash outlook · 2026-02-26 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[9] DE Q3 2026 earnings call 2026-08-20 segments · 2026-08-20 · earnings-call · https://investor.deere.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx

[10] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 allowance · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[11] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 retail credit quality · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[12] DE 10-K filed 2025-12-18 segment operating profit · 2025-12-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-K

[13] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 product lines · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[14] DE 10-K filed 2025-12-18 financial services · 2025-12-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-K

[15] DE 10-K filed 2025-12-18 2025 drivers · 2025-12-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-K

[16] DE 10-K filed 2025-12-18 cash flow · 2025-12-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-K

[17] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 SAT · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[18] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 consolidating income · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[19] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 cash flow · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[20] DE Q3 2026 earnings call 2026-08-20 Q&A · 2026-08-20 · earnings-call · https://investor.deere.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx

[21] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 financial services · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[22] DE 10-Q filed 2026-08-27 CF · 2026-08-27 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[23] DE 10-K filed 2025-12-18 competition · 2025-12-18 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-K

[24] DE 8-K filed 2026-08-20 industry outlook · 2026-08-20 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=8-K

[25] DE 10-Q filed 2026-05-28 CF · 2026-05-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000315189&type=10-Q

[26] MarketBeat 2026-08-24 Deere farm cycle · 2026-08-24 · MarketBeat · https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/deere-earnings-has-the-stock-outrun-the-farm-cycle/

[27] Trefis 2026-08-26 Deere ag cycle profitability · 2026-08-26 · Trefis · https://www.trefis.com/stock/de/articles/612960/deeres-ag-cycle-is-turning-but-can-profitability-follow/2026-08-26

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