[ESLT] Elbit Systems: Q3 2026 Earnings Test Whether Europe Can Follow Israel's Restocking Peak

Elbit Systems is a defense contractor headquartered in Haifa, Israel, whose business spans unmanned and airborne systems, command and communications, electro-optics and electronic warfare, and armored vehicles and munitions[1][2]. The company will report results for the Third quarter 2026 (three months ended September 30, 2026) on 2026-11-17 and host a conference call at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time that day[3]. In the latest disclosed period, the second quarter, revenue rose 15.9% year over year to $2,287.1 million[4], the non-GAAP operating margin reached 10.4%[5], non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $4.14 and the order backlog stood at $32.0 billion at June 30[6]. The company gives no quarterly guidance; on the second-quarter call the CFO said 2026 revenue would again grow at a mid-teen rate (roughly 15%)[7] and that annual capital expenditure had been raised from about $220 million to about $300 million[8]. MarketBeat's November 10 compilation of analyst estimates puts third-quarter earnings at $3.65 per share on revenue of $2.26 billion; because MarketBeat compares last quarter's $4.14 with its estimate, the $3.65 figure should be read on a non-GAAP basis[9].

Three things matter most in this Elbit Systems Q3 2026 earnings report. The first is whether Israel revenue can hold the second quarter's $855.0 million: Israel supplied 37.4% of group revenue in that quarter, and the CFO attributed the share to inventory replenishment after the conflict with Iran that ended in early April[10][11], so a clear drop in the third quarter would mark the second quarter as a one-off peak. The second is whether European revenue resumes growth: new orders in the second quarter came mainly from Europe, yet European revenue of $563.3 million was flat with a year earlier[6][10], which bears directly on whether the $32.0 billion backlog turns into revenue over the next two years. The third is the combination of margin and tax: the non-GAAP operating margin has exceeded 10% for two straight quarters, but the OECD Pillar Two global minimum tax lifted the second-quarter effective tax rate to 16.4% from 5.6% a year earlier[12][5], so the gap between non-GAAP earnings per share and the $3.65 estimate will depend on both product mix and tax[9].

Company Background and Business Structure

Elbit Systems is an Israeli company whose shares trade on Nasdaq and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, and Federmann Enterprises owns about 41.6% of it[1]. Its major wholly owned subsidiaries are Elbit Systems of America (ESA), the electro-optics company Elop, C4I and Cyber, the electronic-warfare and signals-intelligence company Elisra, the land-systems company ELS, and IMI Systems, the Israeli munitions maker acquired in 2018[1]. The company employs more than 21,000 people in dozens of countries across five continents[4]; its President and CEO is Butzi Machlis and its CFO is Kobi Kagan[13][8].

Elbit reports five segments, four organized by the nature of their products and one, ESA, organized geographically around the United States[2]. On 2025 revenue including intersegment sales, Land generated $2,318.7 million and operating income of $263.7 million, the most profitable segment, selling armored-vehicle systems, artillery and mortars, land, air and sea munitions, and platform protection; Aerospace generated $2,067.0 million and operating income of $151.9 million from UAVs, airborne systems, precision-guided munition seekers, aerostructures and training and simulation[2][10][14]. ESA generated $1,694.1 million and operating income of $122.8 million selling to the U.S. military, foreign military sales, homeland security, medical and commercial aviation customers; ISTAR and EW generated $1,525.8 million and operating income of $129.1 million from electro-optics and lasers, countermeasures, naval systems and electronic warfare; C4I and Cyber generated $930.9 million and operating income of $55.9 million from command and control, data links and radios, cyber intelligence and autonomous systems[2][10][14].

Most revenue comes from defense contracts with the Israel Ministry of Defense (IMOD), the U.S. Department of War and other governments[15], most contracts recognize revenue over time as work is performed, and customers make payments in advance under contract terms[16]. To back those advances, banks and other financial institutions had issued $5,245 million of advance-payment and performance guarantees on the company's behalf at the end of 2025[17]. By region in 2025, Israel contributed $2,556.4 million (32.2%), Europe $2,139.5 million (27.0%), North America $1,659.3 million (20.9%) and Asia-Pacific $1,243.7 million (15.7%)[18].

The war environment has directly shaped demand over the past three years. The company says IMOD demand for its products has stayed materially above pre-war levels since the war began in October 2023; on February 28, 2026 the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran, a ceasefire took effect on April 8 after 40 days of conflict, but the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding collapsed in early July and hostilities resumed[19].

Financial History and Current Position

2025 was a year in which revenue and profit accelerated together. Revenue rose 16.3% to $7,938.6 million from $6,827.9 million in 2024[18], and gross profit of $1,935.3 million implied a GAAP gross margin of about 24.4%[20]. GAAP operating income grew from $489.1 million in 2024 to $671.4 million, an operating margin of about 8.5%, with net financial expenses of $138.6 million[14], and full-year net income including non-controlling interests was $535.6 million[21].

Cash flow in 2025 rested mainly on customer advances, while a share issue deleveraged the balance sheet. Operating cash flow was about $778.4 million, driven by an increase of about $651 million in customer advances, while receivables and contract assets absorbed about $660 million and inventories about $358 million; the company raised $573 million from issuing shares, used it mainly to repay $302 million of commercial paper and $110 million of loans, and paid $112 million in dividends[22]. Capital expenditure for the year was $225.6 million[21]; at year-end the company held $635 million of cash and about $181 million of short-term deposits against about $81 million of bank loans, $48 million of commercial paper and $308 million of Series B, C and D notes[17], and the backlog was $28,131 million, 72% of it from outside Israel[23].

The first two quarters of 2026 continued roughly 15% revenue growth with rising margins. First-quarter revenue rose 15.5% to $2,188.8 million[24], with a non-GAAP operating margin of 10.1% and operating cash flow of $281.0 million[12]. Second-quarter revenue rose 15.9% to $2,287.1 million[4]; the GAAP gross margin was 25.3%, GAAP operating income was $218.8 million (a 9.6% margin), non-GAAP operating income was $237.5 million (10.4%) and the effective tax rate was 16.4%[5]; GAAP diluted earnings per share were $3.61 and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $4.14[6].

By the end of June the company's cash position was clearly stronger than at the start of the year. First-half operating cash flow was $517.8 million and capital expenditure $157.6 million[21]; at June 30, cash of $255.3 million plus short-term deposits of $707.6 million totaled about $963 million, total contract liabilities were $4,316.3 million and interest-bearing debt, including the Series B, C and D notes, was about $268 million[20]. The board declared a dividend of $1.00 per share with both the first-quarter and second-quarter results[24][4].

Operating Model

Revenue can be understood as each contract's progress in the quarter multiplied by its value, so it is constrained by both backlog and production capacity[16]. The three main markets move at different speeds: Israel revenue is dominated by IMOD purchases of munitions, UAVs and protection systems, where wartime restocking orders have short cycles and fast delivery[19]; European revenue comes from multi-year government-to-government contracts, such as the $1.4 billion modernization contract signed in May with a five-year term[24] and the EXTRA-MR rocket contract signed in October with a three-year term[25]; and U.S. revenue is produced and delivered domestically by ESA[2]. The CFO noted that backlog grew 34% year over year while revenue grew 16%, and that backlog growth has outpaced revenue growth since 2022[8].

Operating income equals revenue times gross margin minus research and development, marketing and selling, and general and administrative expenses, which ran at 7.0%, 4.5% and 4.3% of revenue in the second quarter[5]. Segment margins differ widely, with 2025 operating margins of 11.4% at Land, 8.5% at ISTAR and EW, 7.3% at Aerospace, 7.2% at ESA and 6.0% at C4I and Cyber[14][10], so a rising share of high-margin Land munitions lifts the group margin directly. Long-term contracts recognize revenue as work progresses, and changes in estimated costs to complete flow into profit in the quarter they occur, which makes margins sensitive to execution on a few large contracts.

Below operating income come net financial expenses and income tax, which moved in opposite directions in 2026. Lower average debt cut second-quarter net financial expenses to $22.0 million from $31.2 million a year earlier, but the Pillar Two minimum tax raised the quarter's effective tax rate to 16.4%[5]; on the other side, Israel's new R&D incentive law produced a year-to-date benefit of about $40 million[19].

Operating cash flow roughly equals net income plus depreciation and amortization plus the increase in contract liabilities, minus increases in receivables, contract assets and inventories. In 2025 depreciation and amortization was $171.4 million and contract liabilities rose $651.3 million; in the first half of 2026 contract liabilities rose $698.8 million while receivables and prepaid expenses rose $813.3 million[21]. Free cash flow after capital expenditure must cover the $1.00 quarterly dividend per share; dividing second-quarter GAAP net income of $173.6 million by diluted earnings per share of $3.61 implies about 48 million shares, or roughly $48 million of dividends a quarter[6].

Industry and Competitive Position

Rising global defense spending provides the demand backdrop for Elbit, while the push for local production decides where orders go. The 20-F says conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and instability in Asia-Pacific have led governments to raise defense budgets, with demand concentrated in C4ISR, unmanned systems, precision munitions, electronic warfare and platform protection; IMOD's "Blue and White" strategy, announced in 2024, expands local production of critical systems and components and has already brought Elbit several awards[26].

Elbit faces a wide field of competitors. In Israel it competes with Israel Aerospace Industries and Rafael; abroad its main rivals include large defense contractors such as Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, BAE Systems, L3Harris, Thales, Leonardo, Saab, Rheinmetall and Hanwha, along with newer defense-tech companies such as Anduril, Palantir and Helsing, many of which have greater financial and marketing resources than Elbit[27].

Elbit's advantages are portfolio breadth and a willingness to localize, but its Israeli identity limits some markets. The company can integrate multiple systems into "system of systems" solutions[26]; management says it can transfer intellectual property and technology to partners and subsidiaries in Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere, and it formed the EuroPULS joint venture with KNDS in Germany to market the PULS rocket artillery system[28]; in 2025 it also began building new facilities in Sweden and Germany[29]. On the limiting side, some countries have been reluctant to buy from Israeli companies since the war began[15], and some of the company's facilities abroad have been attacked by anti-Israeli organizations[19]. The company's disclosures offer no like-for-like share or margin comparison with these rivals, so its competitive position can only be observed indirectly through orders and regional revenue.

Core Debates

Once Israel's munitions restocking winds down, can Elbit hold its home-market revenue at the second-quarter peak?

Israeli demand determines both Elbit's revenue growth and its margin. Israel is the company's largest single regional market, with 2025 revenue of $2,556.4 million, or 32.2%[18]; in the second quarter of 2026 Israel revenue was $855.0 million, up $184.5 million or 27.5% year over year, lifting its share to 37.4%[10]. Most of the increase came from munitions in the Land segment, where second-quarter revenue rose 32% to $770.2 million, which the release attributed to munitions sales in Israel[4], and Land's 11.4% segment margin in 2025 was the highest of the five segments[14].

The current evidence supports both continued demand and a one-off peak. The CFO said Israel's 37% share reflected inventory replenishment after the conflict with Iran that ended in early April[11]; on the side of continued demand are the "Blue and White" localization strategy[26], the partially operational Ramat Beka munitions site in southern Israel[29], about $200 million of airborne munitions contracts in April[24] and a roughly $170 million, 15-year artillery training and simulation center contract on November 2[30]. The alternative reading is that the second quarter concentrated deliveries to replace inventory consumed in the conflict and the third quarter will fall back; the resumption of U.S.-Iran hostilities in July adds another variable[19].

This chain ends in revenue, gross margin and working capital. After the conflict consumes munitions, IMOD restocking and localization orders flow to Land's munitions plants in Israel and are recognized over time as Israel revenue and Land revenue, and because Land's margin is above the group average they also lift the group gross margin. Growth in Israel also ties up working capital: receivables and contract assets related to IMOD were $1,029.5 million at the end of 2025, about $268 million more than the $761.5 million a year earlier[16]. What remains unresolved is whether the resumed hostilities will push demand higher or constrain deliveries through reserve call-ups and supply disruption[19].

The third quarter can test this debate directly. Watch whether Israel revenue stays at or above the first quarter's $817.9 million (first-half $1,672.9 million less the second quarter) and whether it holds the second quarter's $855.0 million[10]; whether Land revenue stays above $770.2 million and whether the company attributes growth to Israel or Europe; and how much Israel contributes to the backlog increase, including any new IMOD munitions contract. Israel revenue below $817.9 million would mark the second quarter as a one-off restocking peak; cuts or delays in Israeli defense spending, reduced U.S. security assistance to Israel[15], or delivery delays from call-ups and supply disruption would also weaken the view that home-market demand stays high.

Elbit keeps signing large European contracts, so why did its European revenue not grow in the second quarter?

Backlog is the core of Elbit's growth story, and Europe is the main source of new orders. The backlog stood at $32.0 billion at June 30[6], about four times 2025 revenue of $7,938.6 million[18]; the company says 2026 revenue will again grow at a mid-teen rate[7] and has raised capital expenditure to about $300 million to speed conversion[8]. If European orders turn into revenue only after 2028, growth over the next two years will have to come from Israel and Asia-Pacific.

The gap between orders and revenue is already visible in the numbers. The second-quarter backlog increase came mainly from Europe[6], including a roughly $1.4 billion five-year modernization contract in May and an approximately $750 million PULS rocket artillery contract with Greece[24]; the company then signed about $270 million of intelligence and targeting payload contracts with an international customer in September, to be performed over up to six years[31], and an approximately $235 million EXTRA-MR rocket and PULS contract with a European customer in October[25]. Yet second-quarter European revenue of $563.3 million was flat with $563.8 million a year earlier, and first-half European revenue of $1,075.6 million grew only 5.4%[10]. The share of backlog scheduled for the next two years fell from 54% (about $15.2 billion) at the end of 2025[23] to 49% (about $14.8 billion) at March 31[12] and 42% (about $13.4 billion) at June 30[6], partly because the window is shrinking and partly because the new European contracts run longer.

The key to this chain is capacity and the pace of contract execution. European rearmament brings multi-year government orders into backlog, the company expands capacity in Israel and Europe, and the orders are then recognized over time as group and European revenue. The CFO said some customers have begun to match the company's investment or even fully fund local plants in their own countries, which could speed conversion, but the company has not quantified the effect[8]. First-half capital expenditure was $157.6 million against $72.5 million a year earlier[21], with $71.2 million in the first quarter[12] and about $86.4 million in the second; the alternative reading is that new European contracts begin with design and local plant construction, push revenue into 2028 and beyond, and that flat European revenue and the falling near-term share are both consistent with this.

The third-quarter tests center on revenue growth and backlog mix. Watch whether group revenue growth is at least 15%, against MarketBeat's compiled revenue estimate of $2.26 billion[9]; whether European revenue returns to year-over-year growth, and whether that growth reaches 10%; whether backlog exceeds $32.0 billion and the dollar amount scheduled for the near term recovers; and whether capital expenditure through three quarters keeps pace with the roughly $300 million annual plan. A year-over-year decline in European revenue, a failure to reaffirm mid-teen growth, or countries refusing to buy or cancelling contracts for political reasons related to Israel[15] would weaken the current view that orders will convert smoothly.

With operating margins now above target, how much of the earnings-per-share growth will the global minimum tax absorb?

Margin improvement is being partly offset by a heavier tax burden. The GAAP operating margin was about 8.5% in 2025[14], the non-GAAP operating margin rose to 10.1% and 10.4% in the first two quarters of 2026[12][5], and the CFO said margins have surpassed the company's internal targets[11]. At the same time, the Pillar Two minimum tax lifted the second-quarter effective tax rate to 16.4% from 5.6%[5]; second-quarter GAAP operating income grew 38.7%, while GAAP diluted earnings per share rose only 34%, from $2.69 to $3.61[6].

Gross margin improvement has two sources, but part of it may come from one-time mix. The second-quarter GAAP gross margin was 25.3% against 24.0% a year earlier[5], helped by scale spreading fixed costs and by a larger share of high-margin Land munitions. R&D rose to 7.0% of revenue, but the new R&D incentive law gave the company a year-to-date benefit of about $40 million[19], and the CFO said about half of the roughly $70 million first-half increase in R&D was funded by that law[11]. The alternative reading is that ESA benefited from a "one-time favorable project mix" in the second quarter, while Aerospace revenue fell 8% on a "one-time unfavorable project mix"[4], and shifts in mix will affect next quarter's margin.

Between operating income and earnings per share stands the tax rate. Larger revenue and a richer product mix raise gross margin, R&D, selling and administrative ratios are diluted and the operating margin rises, but after an effective tax rate of about 16%, earnings-per-share growth will trail operating-income growth noticeably; the first-quarter effective tax rate was 13.0% against 13.9% a year earlier[12]. MarketBeat's compiled non-GAAP estimate of $3.65 per share is below the second quarter's $4.14 and the first quarter's $3.87[9][12], and it remains unresolved whether that gap reflects mix normalizing, a higher tax rate, or both.

Four numbers in the third quarter can test this debate. Watch whether the non-GAAP operating margin stays above 10% for a third straight quarter, whether the GAAP gross margin holds at or above the first quarter's 25.2%[24] and how the company explains mix, whether the effective tax rate stays near 16%, and how far non-GAAP earnings per share land from the $3.65 estimate. A gross margin back below 2025's 24.4% would show the 2026 improvement came from one-time mix; cost overruns on fixed-price long-term contracts that must be recognized in the quarter, or an effective tax rate above 20%, would also weaken the view that margin gains carry through to earnings per share.

Elbit's cash flow leans on customer prepayments; will new orders keep those advances coming in?

Elbit's profit and cash often move out of step, and customer advances are the buffer between them. Of 2025 operating cash flow of $778.4 million, about $651 million came from higher customer advances, while receivables and inventories absorbed about $660 million and $358 million[22]. In 2026 the company has raised capital expenditure and kept a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share, so the durability of cash flow decides whether those commitments can fund themselves.

First-half cash flow was strong, but its drivers were concentrated in contract liabilities. Contract liabilities rose $698.8 million in the first half, receivables and prepaid expenses rose $813.3 million, inventory growth slowed to $107.0 million and operating cash flow was $517.8 million[21]. The CFO said second-quarter operating cash flow was about $237 million against about $120 million a year earlier, free cash flow was $150 million against $71 million, and cash conversion was 86%, helped mainly by higher net income, a strong increase in contract liabilities and stable inventories[13]. At June 30, cash and short-term deposits were about $963 million and interest-bearing debt about $268 million[20].

The risk in this chain is that advances are consumed as contracts are performed. When large contracts are signed, milestone advances are booked as contract liabilities, which totaled $4,316.3 million at June 30, up clearly from $3,617.4 million at the end of 2025, while receivables and contract assets rose from $3,332.2 million to $4,166.7 million over the same period[20]. The alternative reading is that the first-half advances were concentrated in a few large signings, that those advances will gradually turn into revenue as the contracts move into execution, and that receivables will keep accumulating with revenue, pulling cash flow back below profit. On September 18 the company filed a two-year shelf prospectus in Israel but said it had not decided whether to make any offering[32].

The third-quarter test is whether cash flow stays positive as advances slow. Watch whether third-quarter operating cash flow is at least the second quarter's $236.8 million (first-half $517.8 million less the first quarter's $281.0 million) and whether free cash flow is positive; whether total contract liabilities stay above $4,316.3 million; whether the quarterly increase in receivables and contract assets exceeds 20% of revenue; and whether the company actually issues debt or equity under the Israeli shelf. Falling contract liabilities together with rising receivables and negative free cash flow, delayed IMOD payments, or reliance on borrowing or share issues to fund working capital would falsify the view that advances support cash flow.

Risks and Falsifiers

Market-access risk tied to Elbit's Israeli identity maps directly onto its dependence on European orders. The 20-F says some countries have been reluctant to buy from Israeli companies since the war began[15], while 73% of the $32.0 billion backlog at June 30 came from outside Israel[6] and Europe contributed $2,139.5 million, or 27.0%, of 2025 revenue[18]. If third-quarter backlog keeps growing, the increase still comes mainly from Europe and the company reports no contract cancellations, this risk has limited bearing on the current view.

U.S. government limits on shareholder returns could affect the dividend. The 20-F discloses that under a January 7, 2026 U.S. executive order, the Secretary of War could seek to limit the company's cash dividends or share repurchases if it is judged to have underperformed on U.S. government contracts or lacked sufficient investment or production speed[15]. The exposure is a dividend of about $48 million a quarter and the ESA segment, with 2025 revenue of $1,694.1 million[10]; if the company declares another $1.00 dividend with third-quarter results and discloses no related U.S. restriction, the risk has not materialized.

A decline in Israeli defense spending would hit both revenue and gross margin. Once restocking ends or ceasefires stabilize, IMOD could cut or delay purchases, and the 20-F also warns that reduced U.S. security assistance would affect Israel's defense budget[15]. Israel revenue was $855.0 million in the second quarter; a return to the year-earlier $670.5 million would cut quarterly revenue by about $185 million[10] and, through Land's higher margin, pull down the group gross margin; third-quarter Israel revenue of at least $855.0 million with no decline in the Israeli portion of backlog would falsify this concern.

Conversion lagging order growth would leave revenue growth behind the backlog. European multi-year contracts begin with design, localization and plant construction, and delays in capacity expansion or the supply chain would push deliveries out further; about 58% of the June 30 backlog (about $18.6 billion) is scheduled for 2028 and beyond[13], while second-quarter European revenue was only $563.3 million[10]. If third-quarter European revenue grows more than 10% year over year and the near-term dollar amount of backlog recovers, this risk eases materially.

Cost overruns on fixed-price contracts would cut profit in the quarter they are recognized. A large part of revenue comes from long-term development and production contracts, and higher material prices, transportation costs and reserve call-ups of employees all push costs up[19]. Second-quarter GAAP operating income was $218.8 million, and on that quarter's $2,287.1 million of revenue each percentage point of gross margin is worth about $22.9 million of operating income[5]; if the third-quarter GAAP gross margin is at least 25.2% and the company reports no major contract losses, this risk has not materialized.

Expanding working capital could stop profit growth from turning into cash. When revenue grows faster than advances flow in, receivables and contract assets keep accumulating, and IMOD-related receivables and contract assets had already reached $1,029.5 million at the end of 2025, with payment timing subject to the government budget[16]. Receivables and prepaid expenses rose $813.3 million in the first half[21], which without offsetting advances would have consumed all operating cash flow; a further rise in contract liabilities at September 30 and positive third-quarter free cash flow would falsify this risk.

What to Watch Next

• Israel after restocking: Israel revenue against the second quarter's $855.0 million and the first quarter's $817.9 million, Land revenue against $770.2 million, and whether growth is attributed to Israel or Europe. A figure below $817.9 million would mark the second quarter as a one-off peak.
• European conversion: European revenue against a flat $563.3 million, backlog against $32.0 billion and the near-term amount against about $13.4 billion. A European decline or no reaffirmation of mid-teen growth would weaken the conversion case.
• Margin and minimum tax: non-GAAP operating margin against 10.4%, GAAP gross margin against 25.3%, effective tax rate against 16.4%, and non-GAAP earnings per share against the $3.65 estimate. A gross margin below 24.4% or a tax rate above 20% would falsify durable improvement.
• Advances and cash flow: operating cash flow against the second quarter's $236.8 million and contract liabilities against $4,316.3 million. Falling contract liabilities with rising receivables and negative free cash flow would falsify the advance-funded cash story.

Conclusion

Elbit's business is driven by two forces: short-cycle munitions demand from Israel's wartime restocking, and long-cycle orders from multi-year government contracts in Europe and Asia-Pacific. Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 15.9% to $2,287.1 million[4], the non-GAAP operating margin was 10.4%[5], the backlog was $32.0 billion[6], and cash and short-term deposits of about $963 million compared with interest-bearing debt of about $268 million[20], a far sturdier financial position than two years ago. The central unresolved relationship is whether quarterly Israel revenue of $855.0 million can hold after restocking[10] while European orders convert quickly enough to take over growth; how much of the margin gain passes through a 16.4% effective tax rate into earnings per share[5], and whether cash flow stays positive once advances slow, will determine the quality of that growth.

Outside commentary has a clear coverage gap this quarter. Since the second-quarter results on August 11, the publicly visible material has consisted mainly of earnings-call recaps, contract news, automated earnings previews and articles from before the second quarter, and none offers independent analysis with specific data, so the disagreements or common ground among outside analysts on these debates cannot be summarized. Readers are left with the company's own disclosures and MarketBeat's compiled estimates, which are only an average of numbers and carry no argument about these debates[9].

If third-quarter Israel revenue is at least $817.9 million, European revenue returns to double-digit growth, the non-GAAP operating margin stays above 10% and contract liabilities keep rising, the current view that Israeli demand is holding while European orders begin to convert would be materially strengthened. Conversely, if Israel revenue falls back while European revenue stays flat, or the gross margin drops below 24.4% while contract liabilities decline and receivables keep building, that view would be weakened and the company's growth would depend more on distant orders that have not yet entered delivery.

Sources

[1] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 ownership and subsidiaries · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[2] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 segments · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[3] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-10-28 Q3 2026 results date · 2026-10-28 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000117891326004869/exhibit_1.htm

[4] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-08-11 Q2 2026 results · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000023/esltq220266k.htm

[5] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-08-11 Q2 2026 margins and tax · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000023/esltq220266k.htm

[6] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-08-11 Q2 2026 EPS backlog and cash · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000023/esltq220266k.htm

[7] ESLT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 growth outlook · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://www.elbitsystems.com/sites/default/files/2026-08/Q2_2026%20%20transcript%20.pdf

[8] ESLT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 capex and customer-funded capacity · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://www.elbitsystems.com/sites/default/files/2026-08/Q2_2026%20%20transcript%20.pdf

[9] MarketBeat 2026-11-10 ESLT Q3 2026 preview · 2026-11-10 · MarketBeat(汇总分析师预期) · https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/upcoming-elbit-systems-eslt-set-to-post-earnings-on-tuesday-2026-11-10/

[10] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-08-11 revenue by region and segment · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000023/esltq220266k.htm

[11] ESLT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 CFO remarks · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://www.elbitsystems.com/sites/default/files/2026-08/Q2_2026%20%20transcript%20.pdf

[12] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-05-26 Q1 2026 margins backlog and cash · 2026-05-26 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000011/esltq120266k.htm

[13] ESLT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 cash conversion · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://www.elbitsystems.com/sites/default/files/2026-08/Q2_2026%20%20transcript%20.pdf

[14] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 segment operating income · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[15] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 government business risk · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[16] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 IMOD receivables · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[17] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 financial resources · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[18] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[19] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-08-11 R&D Law and Middle East · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000023/esltq220266k.htm

[20] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-08-11 balance sheet · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000023/esltq220266k.htm

[21] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-08-11 cash flow statement · 2026-08-11 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000023/esltq220266k.htm

[22] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 cash flow · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[23] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 backlog · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[24] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-05-26 Q1 2026 results · 2026-05-26 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000011/esltq120266k.htm

[25] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-10-19 EXTRA-MR and PULS contract · 2026-10-19 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000117891326004783/exhibit_1.htm

[26] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 market environment · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[27] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 competition · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[28] ESLT Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-11 demand and capacity · 2026-08-11 · earnings-call · https://www.elbitsystems.com/sites/default/files/2026-08/Q2_2026%20%20transcript%20.pdf

[29] ESLT 20-F filed 2026-03-17 capacity and recent developments · 2026-03-17 · 20-F · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000102766426000005/eslt-20251231.htm

[30] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-11-02 IMOD artillery training center · 2026-11-02 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000117891326004919/exhibit_1.htm

[31] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-09-01 ISR payload contracts · 2026-09-01 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000117891326004362/exhibit_1.htm

[32] ESLT 6-K filed 2026-09-18 shelf prospectus · 2026-09-18 · 6-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027664/000117891326004544/exhibit_1.htm