AI Data Center Cooling Contracting Shifts Toward Early Capacity Booking

On October 23, 2026, mechanical and electrical contractor Comfort Systems USA (FIX), cooling-equipment maker Munters (MMNNF) and industrial-components group Indutrade (IDDWF) each said on their third-quarter earnings calls that AI data center demand now outruns the supply of craft labor and key components, so customers are booking data center capacity earlier and in larger scopes [1][2][3]. Comfort Systems' backlog alone rose 27% in one quarter [1].

Labor and components, not demand, now set the pace of data center construction

A data center needs far more than a shell. It needs electrical distribution, piping and the cooling equipment that carries server heat away. Comfort Systems installs those mechanical and electrical systems in the US, and technology customers made up 59% of its revenue in the first nine months of 2026 [1]. Munters builds data center cooling equipment that depends on components such as coils and compressors. Indutrade supplies flow equipment to gas-turbine manufacturers.

The binding constraint has moved to the supply side. Comfort Systems' president said the limit in this market is not demand but the ability to get labor to the work [1]. Munters' CEO said everyone in the industry is on allocation for certain components, and shortages of parts such as coils limited Munters' output [2]. Because customers know capacity is scarce, they commit earlier, order larger scopes and accept prepayments. As long as AI data center starts keep growing faster than the supply of workers and components, other contractors and cooling-equipment makers may face the same early lock-up.

Backlogs are growing faster than deliveries, and prepayments are becoming standard

Comfort Systems' backlog shows how hard customers are pushing to secure installation capacity. Backlog, the value of signed contracts not yet completed, rose 27% quarter over quarter to $17.8 billion at the end of the third quarter [1]. The president said customers are committing earlier and for larger scopes because they know capacity like Comfort Systems' is scarce. The CFO added a caution: booking more in one quarter may mean booking less in a later one [1].

Munters' orders grew faster still, but the component shortage also hurt its profit. Third-quarter order intake rose 70%, the book-to-bill ratio was 1.6, and backlog rose 178% to SEK 28 billion [2]. The CEO said a big part of 2027 is already filled, some products carry price increases of more than 20%, and the vast majority of deals include prepayments [2]. On the other hand, when parts are missing, Munters can build most of a unit and still be unable to recognize the revenue, and profit in its data center business fell this quarter [2].

Indutrade sees the change further upstream. Its CEO said the order book increasingly consists of longer lead-time orders, reflecting energy demand driven by AI and data center investment. Gas-turbine manufacturers now have very long order books, so some projects will materialize later [3]. The three companies sit in different parts of the chain, yet all three describe supply, not demand, as the limit on growth.

Suppliers with labor and parts are choosing customers and setting terms

With capacity scarce, bargaining power is moving from data center owners to the suppliers that control labor and components. Comfort Systems' modular business prefabricates mechanical and electrical assemblies in factories, and it reserves that capacity mainly for customers that signed five-year volume commitments. When new AI buyers approach, the company looks first at the nature of the commitment and the payment timing [1]. The CFO said some newer competitors are accepting weaker payment terms to win large books of business, and Comfort Systems does not mind losing work on that basis [1]. The pressure is also reaching component suppliers. Munters said it was hit harder because it was late to move on chillers and had to buy some components from very niche vendors [2].

The conclusion has limits. On its second-quarter call in August, AAON said its lead times were coming down and its backlog declined sequentially [4]. Scarcity does not necessarily help equipment makers that lack components, and Comfort Systems' early bookings may borrow from future quarters. Useful indicators to track are the gap between backlog growth and revenue growth, prepayments, equipment lead times, and whether profit in Munters' data center business recovers.

Companies exposed to the data center capacity squeeze

• Modine (MOD): Modine makes data center cooling equipment and faces the same type of component shortage as Munters. In July it said it was negotiating commitments to secure the component volumes it needs for fiscal 2027 and beyond [5]. It has not disclosed whether those commitments bring price increases and prepayments as they have at Munters.
• Dover (DOV): Dover's SWEP unit supplies brazed plate heat exchangers to coolant distribution unit and chiller manufacturers, the component class Munters and Modine describe as scarce. Dover plans to double the related capacity within 12 months but also says its overall lead times are broadly in balance [6], so whether scarcity turns into pricing power for Dover remains to be verified.

Sources

[1] Drillr · Comfort Systems USA (FIX) · 2026-10-23 · Q3 2026 earnings call

It's a market right now where the governor isn't demand. The governor is really just labor, the ability to be able to get the labor to the work. Our customers realize that. So they're wanting to lock up our capacity. And that's why you see what the backlog's doing.

[2] Drillr · Munters (MMNNF) · 2026-10-23 · Q3 2026 earnings call

[3] Drillr · Indutrade (IDDWF) · 2026-10-23 · Q3 2026 earnings call

[4] Drillr · AAON (AAON) · 2026-08-10 · Q2 2026 earnings call

[5] Drillr · Modine (MOD) · 2026-07-30 · Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call

[6] Drillr · Dover (DOV) · 2026-07-23 · Q2 2026 earnings call

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This article highlights industry changes and companies that may be overlooked. It is not a stock recommendation.