[CARR] Carrier: Q3 2026 Earnings Test Data Center Backlog Conversion

Carrier (CARR) is a climate and energy solutions company focused on HVAC equipment, heat pumps, building controls and transport refrigeration, serving residential, commercial, data center and infrastructure customers[1][2]. Ahead of Carrier Q3 2026 earnings, the Drillr earnings calendar lists 2026-10-29 as the release date for results covering the Third quarter 2026 (three months ended September 30, 2026)[3]. In the latest disclosed period, the second quarter of 2026, net sales rose 4% to $6.35 billion with 3% organic growth, but operating profit fell 9% to $825 million and gross margin slipped from about 28.9% to about 27.2%[4][5][6]; on management's adjusted basis, operating margin was 17.2% and adjusted EPS was $0.86[7]. On July 28 Carrier guided third-quarter revenue to just below $6 billion (including a roughly $200 million year-over-year impact from completed divestitures), organic growth of about 10%, an adjusted operating margin of about 16.5% and adjusted EPS of about $0.75, and it raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to about $2.90 from about $2.80[8][9]. The Drillr-compiled consensus from 14 analysts puts third-quarter adjusted EPS at $0.759 (range $0.684 to $0.890), and 13 analysts put revenue at about $6.08 billion (range $5.86 billion to $6.25 billion), slightly above the company's "just below $6 billion" guide, a gap that may partly reflect how divestitures are counted[10].

Three things matter most in these results, and each tests a different part of the story: data center delivery, the quality of the North American residential recovery and European margins. The first is whether commercial sales in Climate Solutions Americas (CSA) turn from a 6% year-over-year decline in the second quarter to growth: management blamed the drop on data center delivery timing, said roughly $1.5 billion of second-half data center revenue is fully booked, and the roughly 10% organic growth guide for the third quarter leans heavily on those deliveries[11][7][12]. The second is whether North American residential sales sustain the second quarter's 9% growth and whether the CSA segment margin returns to the mid-20s that management described: field inventory was still down 25% year over year in the second quarter, yet the segment margin fell from 27.0% to 24.4%, so this quarter's data should help separate genuine replacement demand from distributor restocking[13][14][15]. The third is whether the margin in Climate Solutions Europe (CSE), built mainly on Viessmann, stops falling: heat pump sales rose 20% in the second quarter while the segment margin dropped from 7.9% to 7.2%, and management has appointed a new segment president, making the third quarter the new leadership's first full quarter[16][17].

Company Background and Business Structure

Carrier has narrowed itself from a diversified building technology group into a pure-play climate and energy solutions company. On January 2, 2024, it acquired the climate solutions business of Germany's Viessmann Group, reported mainly in the Europe segment; in the same year it divested its Commercial and Residential Fire, Access Solutions, Industrial Fire and Commercial Refrigeration (CCR) businesses[1]. Portfolio changes continued in 2026: the sale of Riello closed on July 1, and on May 18 Carrier agreed to sell its energy services business NORESCO to Opterra Energy Services, a subsidiary of LS Power, with closing expected in the third quarter[18]. On the second-quarter call, management also described its acquisition of building controls company 75F, saying Carrier is mainly buying 75F's cloud-native building management technology for small and mid-sized buildings and its 91-person engineering team[19].

Carrier reports four segments organized by region and application, and they differ sharply in size and profitability[2]. In 2025, CSA generated $10.47 billion of net sales at a 20.5% segment margin, about 48% of the company's $21.75 billion total; CSE generated $5.04 billion at 8.8%, about 23%; Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa (CSAME) generated $3.34 billion at 13.4%; and Climate Solutions Transportation (CST) generated $2.89 billion at 15.6%[20]. CSA is split into residential, light commercial and commercial businesses[21], CSE's mix is shifting toward heat pumps and battery and solar products[22], and CST consists of container refrigeration and global truck and trailer refrigeration[23].

Carrier sells directly to building contractors and owners and indirectly through joint ventures, independent sales representatives, distributors, wholesalers, dealers and retail outlets, under brands including Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil and NORESCO[24]. North American residential HVAC sales have historically peaked in the second and third quarters, the air conditioning season, while transport refrigeration follows truck production cycles in North America and Europe[25]. Copper, aluminum and steel are the main raw materials, and products also use semiconductors and other electronic components, which makes gross margin sensitive to commodity prices and tariff costs[26].

Carrier's regional footprint contains both growth and drag. CSAME grew 4% organically in the second quarter, but sales in China fell 14% as weak end markets hurt both demand and price[27]; on the call, management said India, Southeast Asia and Australia each grew more than 20%, while the Middle East grew 35% on data center demand[7]. Joint ventures also contribute to profit: equity method investment earnings were $89 million in the first half of 2026, compared with $122 million a year earlier[28].

Financial History and Current Position

2025 was a year in which both revenue and profit declined. According to the 2025 10-K, net sales fell 3% to $21.75 billion from $22.49 billion in 2024; gross margin was $5.62 billion, or about 25.9% of sales, versus about 26.6% in 2024; operating profit was $2.17 billion, down from $2.65 billion; and net earnings attributable to common shareowners were $1.48 billion, compared with $5.60 billion in 2024, when gains from discontinued operations on divested businesses inflated the total[29]. Total segment operating profit was $3.49 billion at a 16.1% margin, below $3.74 billion and 16.6% in 2024[20].

The 2025 decline came mainly from North American residential and light commercial, while the commercial business grew against the trend. CSA residential volume fell 9% on weaker end-market demand and distributor destocking, light commercial volume fell 20%, and commercial grew 23%[21]; in CST, container sales rose 31% while truck and trailer fell 3%[23]. On capital returns, Carrier repurchased $2.89 billion of stock and paid $772 million in common dividends in 2025, while repaying $1.21 billion of long-term debt[30].

In the first half of 2026, Carrier's results weakened sharply before stabilizing in the second quarter. First-quarter net sales were $5.34 billion, and the total segment margin fell from 17.1% to 12.1%, with CSA dropping from 22.2% to 14.9%[31]; second-quarter net sales rose 4% to $6.35 billion, operating profit fell 9% to $825 million, and net earnings attributable to shareowners fell 15% to $501 million[4]. The total segment margin was 18.0% in the second quarter versus 20.3% a year earlier, and 15.3% for the first half versus 18.8%[14][32]. On management's basis, second-quarter adjusted operating profit was about $1.1 billion and the adjusted operating margin was 17.2%[7].

Carrier's cash flow and balance sheet show leverage edging up while buybacks continue. Cash from continuing operations was $953 million in the first half, up from $752 million, against capital expenditures of $211 million and share repurchases of $745 million[28]. At the end of June, cash was $1.34 billion, total debt was $11.95 billion and net debt was $10.61 billion, up from $10.28 billion at the end of 2025, with total debt at 47% of total capitalization[33]. In July the company raised full-year sales guidance to about $23 billion and adjusted operating profit guidance to about $3.5 billion from about $3.4 billion, while keeping full-year free cash flow guidance unchanged[9].

Operating Model

Carrier's consolidated revenue is the sum of its four segments; in the second quarter of 2026, CSA, CSE, CSAME and CST contributed $3.37 billion, $1.32 billion, $917 million and $738 million[14]. CSA residential revenue is roughly distributor sell-in units multiplied by average selling price, and sell-in depends on both end-market replacement demand and field inventory: in the first quarter, residential sales fell 12%, unit volume from distributors to dealers fell 8%, and field inventory was down 35% year over year[34]. Management sees the 2026 North American residential HVAC market at 7 million to 7.5 million units, stable year over year, and in a market of roughly stable size, quarterly growth is more sensitive to changes in field inventory and price[13]. Commercial HVAC revenue comes from backlog delivered on customers' construction schedules, with data centers the fastest-growing part[35].

Segment operating profit is roughly net sales times gross margin, minus selling, administrative and R&D expenses, plus joint venture income. Gross margin depends mainly on the timing gap between pricing and copper, aluminum, steel and tariff costs, on segment and product mix, and on factory utilization. Second-quarter gross margin dollars fell by $41 million, which the 10-Q attributed to higher input costs including tariffs and unfavorable business mix, partly offset by higher volumes and productivity initiatives[6]; operating expenses were $903 million, about 14.2% of sales[4]. The unfavorable mix management cited includes lower-margin heat pumps and battery and solar products in Europe, containers in transportation, and new construction in North America[22].

Because segment margins differ by more than three times, a shift in business mix moves the consolidated margin on its own. In the second quarter CSA earned 24.4%, CST 16.0%, CSAME 11.8% and CSE 7.2%[14], so CSA residential seasonality and CSE's product mix set the direction of the consolidated margin. Management warned that the seasonal sequential decline in North American residential and light commercial sales in the third quarter will put mix pressure on the total company operating margin, which is part of the background to the roughly 16.5% third-quarter adjusted operating margin guide, below the second quarter's 17.2%[22][8][7]. Data center products carry lower margins than North American residential equipment, so a delivery ramp lifts revenue while diluting the consolidated margin; on timing, the roughly 2% price increase effective April 6 shows up more in the third and fourth quarters than in the second[15].

Cash flow seasonality comes mainly from working capital. In the first half of 2026, accounts receivable rose $651 million and inventories rose $335 million, largely offset by a $631 million increase in accounts payable and accrued liabilities[28]; contract liabilities grew from $894 million at the end of 2025 to $1.03 billion at the end of June, widening net contract liabilities to $569 million[36]. After capital spending, operating cash flow goes mainly to buybacks, dividends and data center capacity: existing repurposed and expanded capacity can support about $2.5 billion of annual data center revenue, and a new U.S. plant is expected to be operational by the end of the first quarter of 2027[19].

Industry and Competitive Position

Carrier competes in three markets at once: North American residential HVAC, data center cooling and European heat pumps. In North America it competes with Trane, Lennox, Daikin and Johnson Controls, among others, and owns residential brands including Carrier, Bryant, Day & Night and Heil[24]. The company treats its digital ecosystem as a channel advantage: 55,000 channel-partner technicians now monitor systems in real time through Carrier's platform, up 35% year over year, which management says improves customer loyalty and channel efficiency[13].

Data centers are Carrier's fastest-expanding market. Management now expects 2026 data center sales of about $2 billion (up from about $1.5 billion previously), which would be the second straight year of doubling, and says the full-year forecast is already in backlog[9][35]. On products, Carrier has launched a 1 MW coolant distribution unit (CDU), plans a 3 MW unit in the third quarter and a 5 MW unit around year-end or early next year, and has a strategic partnership with Zutacor[15]; management also acknowledged that the transition to two-phase cooling will take several years rather than happen overnight[37].

In Europe and China, Carrier's position is more complicated, and its advantage over peers is hard to quantify. In Europe, Viessmann benefits from persistently high natural gas prices and continued German subsidies for heat pumps; heat pump sales rose 20% and boiler sales fell high single digits in the second quarter, and the more affordable VitoCal 200 heat pump is due to launch in the fall[16]. But the 10-Q stated in two consecutive quarters that growth in CSE residential and light commercial was partly or fully offset by pricing promotions[38][39]. In China, commercial HVAC is supported by data center, electronics manufacturing and renewable energy demand and by a long-standing strategic partnership with Shanghai Electric, but residential and light commercial remain weighed down by the housing downturn, and management is weighing how much more to invest[12]. Without like-for-like peer financials, Carrier's cost and margin advantages over rivals such as Trane and Daikin can only be compared qualitatively.

Core Debates

With North American residential destocking over, is third-quarter growth real replacement demand or distributors restocking?

This debate decides whether Carrier's most profitable business can recover. CSA accounted for about 48% of 2025 net sales and earned a 20.5% segment margin, the highest of the four segments, and its $2.15 billion of segment profit was about 62% of the $3.49 billion total[20]. Residential volume fell 9% in 2025, fell another 12% in the first quarter of 2026 and then grew 9% in the second quarter[21][40][11]. The third quarter is the North American residential peak season and the quarter that tests whether the recovery lasts and whether April's price increase covers tariff costs[25].

The case for real demand rests on the 10-Q and the earnings call. The 10-Q attributed the second quarter's 9% residential growth to improving end-market demand and pricing, while light commercial grew 10%[11]; management said field inventory was down 25% year over year (versus down 35% in the first quarter) and raised its full-year CSA residential and light commercial growth outlook to high single digits[13][34][9]. Yet the CSA segment margin fell from 27.0% to 24.4%, which management explained as stronger pricing offset by unfavorable product mix and higher input costs[14][7]. The alternative reading is that distributors restocked from low inventory once destocking ended, and buying ahead of the price increase inflated second-quarter sell-in while end-market replacement demand did not improve at the same pace; if so, third-quarter growth will slow and the year-over-year decline in field inventory will narrow quickly.

The numeric baselines for this debate are now fairly clear: field inventory down 25% year over year at the end of June, residential sales up 9% in the second quarter, a CSA margin of 24.4% (14.9% in the first quarter), and a consolidated gross margin of about 27.2%, down 170 basis points[13][11][31][6]. The financial transmission starts with U.S. residential replacement demand and distributor inventory, which set the units Carrier sells into the channel; the roughly 2% price increase from April raises average selling prices, and together they determine CSA residential revenue[15]. Because the prior-year quarter was in destocking, the segment margin is highly sensitive to both volume and price: on second-quarter CSA net sales of $3.37 billion, each 1 percentage point of segment margin equals about $34 million of quarterly segment profit[14]. The path management gave in the first quarter was a CSA margin of about 24% in the second quarter, the mid-20s in the third, high teens in the fourth and about 21% for the full year[15].

What remains unresolved is how much of the second-quarter growth came from end demand. The third quarter should be judged on three measures: whether CSA residential growth is at least the second quarter's 9%, along with management's latest description of field inventory; whether the CSA segment margin reaches 24% or more, close to the mid-20s; and whether the year-over-year decline in consolidated gross margin is smaller than the second quarter's 170 basis points. If residential growth slows and field inventory rises year over year, the second quarter included restocking; if residential keeps growing and the CSA margin returns to the mid-20s, demand and pricing are recovering together.

Data center orders have multiplied; can Carrier turn its record backlog into third-quarter revenue on schedule?

Data center delivery is the main basis for Carrier's raised full-year guidance and the largest swing factor in third-quarter revenue. Management expects 2026 data center sales of about $2 billion, a second straight year of doubling, and on that basis raised full-year sales guidance to about $23 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to about $2.90[35][9]. Yet CSA commercial sales fell 6% year over year in the second quarter because of customer delivery timing[11], and the roughly 10% organic growth guide for the third quarter depends on those deliveries landing[8].

Evidence on the order side is very strong; the debate is about what those orders represent. Total company orders rose 40% year over year in the second quarter, commercial HVAC orders rose 65%, and data center orders were four times the prior-year level; excluding expected future hyperscaler and colocation orders, total backlog exceeded $8 billion, up 40% year over year and 20% sequentially[41]. Management said it sees only minor month-to-month timing variation and no broad pushouts, that customers are actually asking Carrier to accelerate deliveries, and that the full $1.5 billion second-half data center revenue forecast is booked; because major customers have long-term strategic contracts with fixed share commitments, the company does not see material double-ordering risk[12]. The alternative reading is that customers ordered early and are holding inventory to speed up their own projects—management itself noted that customers are holding inventory to accelerate project delivery—so the order surge reflects construction schedules being pulled forward, and if hyperscaler capital spending slows, both backlog conversion and replenishment orders would decelerate; the second-quarter drop in commercial sales shows how sensitive deliveries are to customers' site progress.

The baselines for this debate are second-quarter orders up 40%, backlog above $8 billion, CSA commercial sales down 6% (up 4% in the first quarter of 2026 and up 23% for full-year 2025), and consolidated organic growth of 3%[41][40][21][5]. The transmission runs from hyperscaler and colocation build plans to chiller orders, from orders into backlog, and from backlog to deliveries on customers' site schedules, producing CSA commercial and CSAME revenue that feeds consolidated organic growth. Capacity is a second constraint: existing capacity can support about $2.5 billion of annual data center revenue, which management says is not enough for contracted demand in 2027 and beyond, so Carrier is choosing between Texas and Alabama for a new U.S. plant whose lines are designed to switch to other commercial HVAC products[19]. The Noresco exit and startup costs at the new U.S. facility together create a roughly 5-cent EPS headwind in the second half[9].

What remains unresolved is whether orders convert to revenue on schedule, not whether the orders exist. In the third quarter, the key checks are whether CSA commercial sales return to year-over-year growth and how large the "significant sequential and year-over-year pickup" management described turns out to be; whether consolidated organic growth reaches about 10%; and whether backlog stays above $8 billion at quarter-end, along with progress on siting and starting up the new plant. If commercial sales keep falling and backlog shrinks, deliveries or demand are slipping; if commercial grows by double digits with backlog flat or higher, orders are converting to revenue steadily.

Viessmann is selling more heat pumps, so why is Europe’s margin still falling, and when will it stop?

The European segment's margin determines whether the 2024 Viessmann acquisition earns an acceptable return. CSE is built mainly on the Viessmann climate solutions business acquired in January 2024[1], and it generated $5.04 billion of net sales in 2025, about 23% of the company total, but its 8.8% segment margin was far below CSA's 20.5%[20]. Management has appointed a new segment president and plans a more aggressive approach to cost reduction and pricing discipline, targeting mid-teen operating margins over the next few years[17].

CSE's volume and margin are moving in opposite directions. Second-quarter CSE residential and light commercial sales rose 4%, but the 10-Q said the growth was offset by pricing promotions, and first-quarter growth of 2% was likewise partly offset by targeted promotions; the commercial business fell 6% in the second quarter[39][38]. On the call, management said heat pump sales rose 20% and boiler sales fell high single digits in the second quarter, while the segment margin was disappointing because of unfavorable mix and higher selling investment[16][17]. In the first quarter, management had described the promotions as one-time and put through price increases and surcharges effective April 1[37]. The alternative reading is that Europe's heat pump market is intensely competitive, promotions are a recurring cost of holding share rather than a one-off, and a rising heat pump mix will itself keep CSE margins depressed for a long time.

The baselines for this debate are second-quarter CSE residential and light commercial growth of 4%, heat pump growth of 20%, a 7.2% segment margin (7.9% a year earlier), and a 7.0% first-half margin (8.4% a year earlier)[39][16][14][32]. The transmission begins with German subsidies and high natural gas prices pushing heat pumps to replace gas boilers; a rising share of lower-margin heat pumps and battery and solar products, together with promotions, worsens CSE's gross margin mix[22]. The offsets are the April 1 price increases and surcharges and the cost savings tied to $89 million of first-half restructuring charges[42]. On second-quarter CSE net sales of $1.32 billion, each 1 percentage point of margin equals about $13 million of quarterly segment profit[14].

What remains unresolved is when promotional and mix pressure will peak. In the third quarter, the checks are whether the CSE segment margin is flat or better year over year, whether the 10-Q still lists promotions as an offset and how fast heat pumps grow, and whether CSE commercial delivers the mid-single-digit second-half growth management described—management's basis being 20% growth in European commercial orders in the second quarter[17]. If the margin keeps falling year over year while promotions continue, share is being bought with price; if the margin stabilizes, promotions fade and heat pumps keep growing by double digits, the repair is starting to show.

Risks and Falsifiers

The first risk is the timing gap between tariff costs and pricing. Updated Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper were announced on April 2, 2026, and Carrier plans to mitigate them with the supply chain changes, cost reductions and pricing actions it used in 2025[43]; management said the April tariff implementation created a net negative margin headwind in the second quarter because pricing took effect late in the quarter[22]. Separately, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA tariffs were unauthorized and the Court of International Trade ordered refunds in March, but as of June 30 Carrier had recorded no refund benefit; the amount and timing are uncertain, and booking one could create a non-comparable one-time gain in a future quarter[43]. The exposed line is gross margin: on second-quarter net sales of $6.35 billion, each 10 basis points of gross margin equals about $6 million of quarterly gross profit[4]. If the third-quarter year-over-year gross margin decline is smaller than 170 basis points and management confirms that pricing has fully offset tariffs, this risk is falsified.

The second risk is litigation. As of December 31, 2025, Carrier, its subsidiary Kidde-Fenwal (KFI) and others had been named as defendants in more than 17,000 lawsuits over aqueous film forming foam (AFFF), with the federal cases consolidated in the U.S. District Court for the District of South Carolina[44]; separate lawsuits target residential HVAC manufacturers, which management calls meritless and will defend vigorously[45]. The company has not disclosed an estimable range of potential damages, and settlements or judgments would compete with cash flow and capital returns, after Carrier repurchased $2.89 billion of stock and paid $772 million in dividends in 2025[30]. If no new accrual or settlement payment appears in the third quarter, the risk has not materialized this quarter.

The third risk is that residential demand is only restocking from low inventory: third-quarter sell-in slows, price increases dampen end-market replacement, and the CSA segment margin misses management's path. On second-quarter CSA net sales of $3.37 billion, each 1 percentage point of margin lost cuts quarterly segment profit by about $34 million, and CSA's $2.15 billion of 2025 segment profit was about 62% of the total[14][20]. If third-quarter CSA residential growth is at least 9% and the segment margin is at least 24%, this risk is falsified.

The fourth risk is that data center deliveries slip again, or that slower hyperscaler construction reduces replenishment orders, leaving third-quarter revenue below guidance and dragging on management's target of roughly 50% year-over-year growth in second-half adjusted operating profit[9]. About $1.5 billion of second-half data center revenue is already in guidance; if one-tenth of it slips, about $150 million of revenue would move out of 2026[12]. If third-quarter CSA commercial sales grow year over year, consolidated organic growth is at least 8% and backlog is no lower than at the end of the second quarter, this risk is falsified.

The fifth risk is that European heat pump competition makes promotions permanent, the share of low-margin products keeps rising, the CSE margin fails to recover and returns on the Viessmann acquisition stay below management's target. On second-quarter CSE net sales of $1.32 billion, each 1 percentage point of margin lost cuts quarterly segment profit by about $13 million, against 2025 CSE segment profit of $444 million[14][20]. If the third-quarter CSE segment margin is flat or higher year over year and the 10-Q no longer cites promotional offsets, this risk is falsified.

What to Watch Next

• North American residential recovery: CSA residential sales growth was 9% in the second quarter and field inventory was down 25% year over year at the end of June[11][13]. Growth of at least 9% with inventory still lean supports real demand; slower growth with rising inventory points to restocking.
• CSA margin and gross margin: the CSA margin was 24.4% and consolidated gross margin about 27.2%, down 170 basis points[14][6]. A CSA margin of at least 24% with a narrower gross margin decline supports pricing covering costs.
• Data center delivery: CSA commercial sales fell 6% and consolidated organic growth was 3%[11][5]. Double-digit commercial growth and organic growth near 10% support conversion; another decline points to delivery slippage.
• Backlog and the new U.S. plant: backlog exceeded $8 billion[41]. Flat or higher backlog and progress on plant siting support conversion; a shrinking backlog signals demand moving out.
• European margin repair: the CSE margin was 7.2% versus 7.9% a year earlier, with heat pumps up 20%[14][16]. A stable margin with fading promotions supports repair; a further decline means volume is being bought with price.

Conclusion

Three forces drive Carrier's business: volume and price in North American residential, order delivery in commercial HVAC and especially data centers, and Viessmann's product mix and promotions in Europe. In 2025 the company generated $21.75 billion of net sales and $2.17 billion of operating profit[29]; in the second quarter of 2026 revenue returned to 4% growth, but operating profit fell 9%[4], gross margin dropped 170 basis points year over year[6], and net debt stood at $10.61 billion at the end of June[33]. The central unresolved relationship is whether more than $8 billion of backlog and recovering residential volume can turn into margin repair despite tariffs, unfavorable mix and European promotions[41].

Only one independent outside interpretation was available after the second-quarter results. In a July 29 article, MarketBeat contributor Chris Markoch argued that Carrier beat expectations on both revenue and earnings but that margin pressure was the real story, with unfavorable mix and rising input costs offsetting pricing gains; he wrote that "The bull case for Carrier increasingly runs through its data center business," and that the residential business is showing signs of life as well[46]. That reading links the data center delivery and North American residential debates and treats margins as the main risk, consistent with the 10-Q's explanation of the gross margin decline[6]; however, it does not address European margins and does not separate end demand from restocking in the residential rebound. Other material found over the same period consisted mostly of earnings recaps, institutional holding changes and company announcements, which do not allow a comparison across multiple viewpoints, so this single article should be read as one outside perspective rather than a market consensus.

A specific combination of observations would materially strengthen the current understanding: third-quarter CSA commercial sales returning to growth, consolidated organic growth near 10% and backlog holding above $8 billion, together with CSA residential growth of at least 9%, a CSA margin near the mid-20s and a CSE margin that stops falling year over year. Conversely, if commercial sales keep declining, field inventory rises year over year, the gross margin decline does not narrow and CSE still relies on promotions to grow, both the data center and residential engines behind the raised full-year guidance would be called into question.

Sources

[1] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · portfolio transformation · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[2] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[3] CARR earnings calendar updated 2026-10-23 · 2026-10-23 · Drillr earnings calendar

[4] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · consolidated results · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[5] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · net sales · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[6] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · gross margin · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[7] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · CSA segment · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[8] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · guidance · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[9] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · full-year guidance · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] Drillr analyst estimates CARR Q3 2026 retrieved 2026-10-23 · 2026-10-23 · Drillr analyst estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[11] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Climate Solutions Americas · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[12] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · delivery timing and double ordering · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[13] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · North America residential · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[14] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · segment summary · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[15] CARR Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-30 · CSA margin path and pricing · 2026-04-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[16] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · Europe · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[17] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · Europe commercial and margins · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[18] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · divestitures · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[19] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · data center capacity · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[20] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · segment summary · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[21] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · Climate Solutions Americas · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[22] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · management-stated risks · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[23] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · Climate Solutions Transportation · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[24] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · products and channels · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[25] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · seasonality · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[26] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · raw materials · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[27] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[28] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · cash flows · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[29] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · consolidated results · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[30] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · cash flows · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[31] CARR Q1 2026 10-Q filed 2026-04-30 · segment summary · 2026-04-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[32] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · six-month segment summary · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[33] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · liquidity · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[34] CARR Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-30 · segment commentary · 2026-04-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[35] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · data center · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[36] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · contract balances · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[37] CARR Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-30 · Europe heat pumps · 2026-04-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[38] CARR Q1 2026 10-Q filed 2026-04-30 · Climate Solutions Europe · 2026-04-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[39] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · Climate Solutions Europe · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[40] CARR Q1 2026 10-Q filed 2026-04-30 · Climate Solutions Americas · 2026-04-30 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[41] CARR Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-28 · orders and backlog · 2026-07-28 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[42] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · restructuring · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[43] CARR Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 · tariffs · 2026-07-28 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[44] CARR FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-05 · AFFF litigation · 2026-02-05 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001783180&type=10-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

[45] CARR Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-30 · litigation and tariffs · 2026-04-30 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[46] MarketBeat view on CARR Q2 2026 by Chris Markoch 2026-07-29 · 2026-07-29 · MarketBeat · https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/carrier-earnings-could-send-the-stock-to-a-new-all-time-high/