[DOV] Dover: Q3 2026 earnings preview as orders outrun shipments

Dover (DOV) is a diversified manufacturer that sells industrial equipment, engineered components, consumables, aftermarket parts and software through five segments[1], and this Dover Q3 2026 earnings preview looks ahead to its earnings call on 2026-10-22[2], which covers the third quarter 2026, the three months ended September 30, 2026. In the latest disclosed quarter, the second quarter of 2026, revenue was $2.19 billion, up 7%[3], with organic growth of 4.8%[4]; adjusted earnings per share were $2.74, up 12%[5]; and bookings were $2.33 billion, up about 16%[6], with management saying book-to-bill was above 1 in all five segments[7]. Dover gives only full-year guidance, and on July 23 it raised its 2026 adjusted EPS range from $10.45-$10.65 to $10.55-$10.75 and its organic growth range from 3%-5% to 4%-6%[3][8]. The consensus compiled by Drillr from 11 analysts is $2.853 of adjusted EPS for the third quarter (range $2.773-$2.893), and 10 analysts put quarterly revenue at $2.217 billion[9], about 8.9% and 6.7% above the third-quarter 2025 figures of $2.62 and $2.078 billion[5][10]; 12 analysts put full-year 2026 EPS at $10.68, in the upper half of the company's range[11].

Three things matter most in this report. First, the Climate & Sustainability Technologies (CST) segment booked $560.3 million of orders in the second quarter, 23% more than it shipped, yet its margin fell from 18.6% a year earlier to 16.7%[12]; the CEO blamed missed output targets during a retail refrigeration plant consolidation and estimated the shortfall cost the whole company about 1 to 1.5 points of organic growth[13], so the third quarter will show whether recovered output turns that backlog into revenue and restores the margin. Second, the Pumps & Process Solutions (PPS) segment posted a record 32.4% margin in the second quarter, but organic growth was only 0.4%, below its roughly 1.5% pricing contribution[14], while polymer processing equipment exited the quarter with book-to-bill above 1[15]; the third quarter will show whether Dover's most profitable segment can return to volume growth. Third, first-half bookings of $4.795 billion exceeded revenue of $4.244 billion by about $550 million[6][10], and management said book-to-bill was partly inflated by product it could not ship and that it would revisit guidance only if orders keep their pace through the end of the third quarter[7]; third-quarter revenue, profit and free cash flow will test the quality of those orders against a prior-year free cash flow base of $370 million[16].

Company Background and Business Structure

Dover is a long-established US industrial group that keeps reshaping its portfolio through acquisitions. The company was incorporated in Delaware in 1947, went public in 1955 and is headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois[1]; it had about 24,000 employees worldwide at the end of 2025[17], and its chief executive is Richard J. Tobin[13]. From 2023 through 2025 Dover spent about $1.9 billion buying 14 businesses, mostly bolt-on deals that add to existing operations[18]; in 2025 alone it completed four acquisitions totaling $665 million[19], including Sikora and ipp, which joined PPS in the second quarter of 2025[14].

The five segments are similar in revenue size, but their margins differ by almost a factor of two. In 2025, Pumps & Process Solutions (PPS) had revenue of $2.149 billion and a 30.3% segment margin, Clean Energy & Fueling (CE&F) $2.131 billion and 19.6%, Climate & Sustainability Technologies (CST) $1.560 billion and 17.0%, Imaging & Identification (I&I) $1.173 billion and 26.8%, and Engineered Products (EP) $1.086 billion and 20.0%[20]. PPS makes specialty pumps, fluid connectors, precision components for compressors and turbines, and polymer processing equipment, serving single-use biopharma, chemicals, power generation and data center thermal management; CE&F supplies retail fuel dispensers, storage and transport equipment, site software and vehicle wash systems, along with equipment for cryogenic gases such as liquefied natural gas and hydrogen; CST supplies commercial refrigeration, heat exchangers and beverage can-making equipment; I&I supplies marking and coding and product traceability equipment and consumables; and EP covers vehicle aftermarket service equipment, aerospace and defense components, industrial winches and soldering and dispensing equipment[1].

Dover's customer base is fragmented, and its revenue leans on two models that keep earning over a long life. In the component model, a product is a small but essential part of a customer's larger system, and the cost and risk of switching far exceed the price of the part; in the equipment-with-aftermarket model, a large installed base keeps generating consumables, parts, software and services, and this recurring demand is about 40% of total revenue[21]. No customer exceeded 10% of consolidated revenue in 2025, but the defense, commercial refrigeration and can-making businesses deal with a few large customers in their industries, and customers outside the United States supplied 46% of revenue[17]. About 95% of revenue is recognized at a point in time, on shipment or after installation and acceptance, and Dover's financial statements consolidate its subsidiaries[22][1].

Financial History and Current Position

Dover's 2025 growth came mainly from acquisitions, pricing and currency, with little contribution from volume. Revenue from continuing operations was $8.093 billion in 2025, up 4.5% from $7.746 billion in 2024, with acquisitions adding 2.6%, organic growth 1.6% and currency 1.0%, and customer pricing contributing about 1.9%; gross margin rose 160 basis points to 39.8%, operating earnings increased from $1.206 billion to $1.373 billion, and diluted EPS from continuing operations was $7.97, below the 2024 figure of $10.09, which included disposal gains[23]. Adjusted EPS, which excludes acquisition amortization, restructuring costs and disposal gains or losses, was $9.61[5]; total segment earnings were $1.867 billion, up from $1.680 billion in 2024[20]; and full-year bookings rose 6.0% to $8.138 billion[23].

In the first half of 2026, Dover's revenue and profit grew clearly faster than in 2025. First-half revenue was $4.244 billion, up 8% with 5% organic growth; GAAP EPS from continuing operations was $4.06, up 8%; and adjusted EPS was $5.02, up 12%[3]. Within that, first-quarter adjusted EPS was $2.28, and second-quarter GAAP EPS was $2.31, up 14%[5]. The second-quarter segment margin was 24.0%, up from 23.2% a year earlier, and the adjusted segment EBITDA margin was 25.9%[10]; first-half bookings totaled $4.795 billion[6]. By region, second-quarter organic revenue grew 7.9% in the United States and 8.5% in Asia but fell 5.0% in Europe[4].

Dover's cash generation is concentrated in the second half, and its balance sheet carries modest leverage. In 2025, operating cash flow was $1.338 billion and capital expenditures were $220 million, leaving free cash flow of $1.118 billion, or 13.8% of revenue[16]; year-end cash was $1.677 billion and total debt $3.328 billion, net debt was 18.2% of net capitalization, and in November 2025 the company signed a $500 million accelerated share repurchase agreement[19], which was completed in April 2026 with 2,487,662 shares repurchased in total[22]. First-half 2026 free cash flow was $320 million, up 23%[24], or 7.5% of revenue[16]; at the end of June, cash was about $1.8 billion (about $603 million of it outside the US), total debt was $3.260 billion and net debt fell to 16.3% of net capitalization[25]. Management kept its full-year guidance for capital expenditures of $190-$210 million and free cash flow of 14%-16% of revenue[24].

Operating Model

Dover's revenue equals the shipped volume of equipment and components across five segments times price, plus consumables, parts, services and software drawn from the installed base. Growth splits into volume, price, acquisitions and currency: in the second quarter of 2026 customer pricing added about 2.2%, organic growth was 4.8%, and acquisitions and currency added 1.2% and 0.9%[26]. Orders lead revenue: management says most of its businesses are short-cycle and that orders fluctuate from quarter to quarter[7], while CST's heat exchangers and refrigeration systems include longer lead-time orders[12], so capacity and plant execution set the speed at which orders become revenue. Because about 95% of revenue is recognized at a point in time[22], a delayed delivery pushes revenue straight into a later quarter.

Profit flows from segment revenue times segment margin, less corporate expense, interest and tax. In the second quarter of 2026, segment earnings of $526 million (a 24.0% margin) minus about $48 million of corporate expense and about $15 million of net interest left adjusted pretax earnings of about $464 million, and deducting about $52 million of acquisition amortization and $25 million of restructuring and other costs gives GAAP pretax earnings of $388 million[10]; adjusted after-tax earnings were $372 million, and on about 135.6 million diluted shares adjusted EPS was $2.74[5]. Segment margin is set by price versus cost, product mix, capacity utilization and productivity; incremental margins on added revenue were 38% in the second quarter[27], and management also put 2026 savings from rightsizing actions at more than $40 million[28]. Higher volume lifts margin in the same quarter by spreading fixed costs; conversely, if pricing falls behind raw material costs, the price-cost spread turns negative and gross margin falls.

Cash flow equals earnings plus depreciation and amortization, less increases in working capital and capital expenditures. Dover plans to hold capital spending at about 2% of revenue a year[18], and its cash is highly seasonal: in 2025, first-half free cash flow was $261 million and second-half free cash flow $857 million, including $370 million in the third quarter and $487 million in the fourth[16]. In the first half of 2026, adjusted working capital rose $219 million, driven mainly by a $151 million increase in receivables and a $148.5 million increase in inventory, which the company said supports deliveries over the next several quarters backed by the order book[25]; management said that working capital would unwind seasonally in the third and fourth quarters[24], so the first-half inventory build should show up as cash only in the third and fourth quarters.

Industry and Competitive Position

Dover is a long-standing leader in several niche markets, and its moat rests mainly on component switching costs and installed equipment bases. Retail fueling equipment and underground storage tank equipment, marking and coding, and single-use biopharma connectors all follow this model, in which the risk of replacing a small part is far larger than its price[21]. In North American CO2 refrigeration systems, management says market penetration is only about 10%[28]; in brazed plate heat exchangers, the SWEP subsidiary is the most automated business in the portfolio, and management says capacity in this field is hard to ramp and that Dover has been adding capacity in advance for the past two and a half years[29].

Dover is betting part of its growth on what management calls secular growth markets, but it is not a data center company. Management groups energy transition and power generation, data center liquid cooling, CO2 refrigeration, semiconductors, biopharma and space infrastructure into these markets, which represent about 25% of 2026 revenue, up from about 20% at the end of the first quarter; space-related revenue is expected to be about $50 million in 2026[27]. The CEO also said plainly, "we're not a data center play we participate in data centers," and data centers are a limited share of the overall portfolio[27].

The available comparison has two clear limits. First, Dover does not disclose revenue below the segment level, so changes in CST's refrigeration, heat exchanger and can-making businesses, or in PPS's polymer equipment and component lines, can only be inferred from segment figures and qualitative comments on the earnings call; second, the comparison here relies only on the company's own figures and lacks competitors' financial data to test market share, so the CEO's statement that he is not aware of losing any share is the company's own judgment[13]. Regional divergence also deserves attention: organic revenue in Europe fell 0.9% in 2025[23] and another 5.0% in the second quarter of 2026[4], while the United States and Asia grew.

Core Debates

Dover's Climate & Sustainability Technologies segment booked 23% more orders than it shipped in the second quarter, yet its margin fell from 18.6% to 16.7%. A refrigeration plant consolidation slowed deliveries. Once output recovers in the third quarter, can the segment's margin return to last year's level?

CST is Dover's fastest-growing segment by orders, and whether it can deliver its backlog decides a large part of second-half profit. First-half CST bookings were $1.207 billion[6], about 39% more than revenue of $866 million[10], driven mainly by CO2 refrigeration systems, refrigerated door cases and heat exchangers used in data center cooling[12]. In the first quarter management said CST would deliver double-digit organic growth in 2026[28], and in the second quarter it said second-half profitability would be "materially different" from the first half[13]; if the output problem persists, both statements fail, whereas if it clears, the backlog becomes a main source of second-half revenue and profit.

Second-quarter figures show strong demand, but production problems dragged down profit. CST revenue was $455.1 million, up 9.4%, with organic growth of 8.3% and pricing contributing about 2.6%; segment earnings were $75.83 million, down 1.9%, and the margin fell from 18.6% to 16.7%; bookings rose 45.8%, with a book-to-bill of 1.23 that included longer lead-time orders[12]. CST's first-half organic growth was 11.5%[4], its first-quarter margin was only 15.6%, and in the third quarter of 2025 the segment had revenue of $408.5 million and an 18.6% margin[10], with bookings of $415.1 million and a book-to-bill of 1.02[6]; these are the year-over-year comparisons for the third quarter.

The financial transmission is direct: plant capacity and workforce skill during the consolidation set delivery volumes of CO2 systems and display cases, delivery volumes set CST revenue and fixed-cost absorption, and those set the margin. On the earnings call, the CEO said output fell short of target while one plant was being closed and labor was being ramped at the same time, that the closure of the old plant was only about three-quarters complete, that he expects throughput to rise sequentially over the second half, and that he is not aware of losing any market share[13]. The second strand is SWEP heat exchangers: they delivered their best quarter ever in the second quarter, the company is working to double capacity for data center liquid cooling over the next 12 months, with the new capacity coming on through the second half and into 2027, and management stressed that refrigeration's problems came mainly from the labor ramp, which the highly automated SWEP business does not face[29]. What remains unresolved is the alternative explanation: demand for CO2 systems and display cases may have been pulled forward, or customers may be shifting to other suppliers, with book-to-bill merely inflated by the backlog.

In the third-quarter report, watch whether the CST margin returns above 18.6%, whether organic growth reaches double digits, whether book-to-bill stays above 1, whether management confirms that the plant consolidation is complete and deliveries have caught up, and whether new SWEP capacity starts on schedule. If orders remain above revenue while revenue growth fails to accelerate and the margin is no higher than in the second quarter, that favors the capacity-and-execution explanation; if the third-quarter CST margin is still below 16.7%, the output recovery has been delayed; and if CST bookings fall below the prior-year $415.1 million, the problem is more likely slowing demand than constrained deliveries.

Dover's Pumps & Process Solutions segment posted a record 32.4% margin in the second quarter, but organic growth was only 0.4%, which means volume still fell once pricing is stripped out. With polymer equipment orders stabilizing, can the company's most profitable segment return to volume-driven growth in the third quarter?

PPS is Dover's largest source of profit, and whether its volume recovers decides the quality of the company's earnings growth. In 2025, PPS segment earnings were $652 million, about 35% of the $1.867 billion total for the five segments[20]. The high second-quarter margin came mainly from mix, as high-margin components grew while lower-margin polymer equipment shrank; if volume does not recover, segment profit can lean only on mix and acquisitions, but if polymer stabilizes while components keep growing, the segment gains both revenue and profit.

Nearly all of PPS's second-quarter growth came from acquisitions and price. Segment revenue was $552.7 million, up 6.2%, with acquisitions adding 4.9%, currency 0.9% and organic growth 0.4%, while customer pricing contributed about 1.5%, which means volume still declined after price; segment earnings were $178.8 million and the margin rose from 30.6% to 32.4%; bookings were $590.0 million, up 11.3% partly because of acquisitions, with a book-to-bill of 1.07[14]. PPS organic growth for the first half was -0.2%[4], its first-half margin was 31.9%, and in the third quarter of 2025 the segment had revenue of $550.9 million and a 30.6% margin[10]; bookings in that quarter were $511.0 million with a book-to-bill of 0.93, and first-quarter 2026 bookings were $597.6 million[6].

PPS's financial transmission runs along two lines: the capacity cycle of polymer processing customers drives long-cycle equipment orders and PPS volume, while demand for biopharma consumables, turbine and compressor precision components and data center liquid cooling connectors drives the share of high-margin components and the segment margin. The 2025 annual report already explained that polymer equipment revenue fell because customers were optimizing the large capacity investments of recent years, while growth came from single-use biopharma components, thermal connectors for data center liquid cooling, and precision components for natural gas compression and power generation[30]. The CEO explained that polymer shipments are inherently lumpy and that a large batch of shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025 created a tough comparison; even with fewer polymer shipments, profit came in slightly above the company's expectation because heavier polymer shipments would have diluted the margin, and polymer book-to-bill was above 1 exiting the second quarter[15]. The unresolved alternative is that component demand has already hit capacity limits while polymer recovers too slowly, leaving second-half organic growth in the low single digits; third-quarter PPS growth may also include newly added acquisitions, so judging volume requires looking at organic growth after price.

In the third-quarter report, watch whether PPS organic growth exceeds its roughly 1.5% pricing contribution, whether the segment margin holds near 31.9%, whether book-to-bill is at least 1.0, and what management says about polymer orders and 2027 shipments. If third-quarter PPS organic growth is negative, the volume decline is continuing; if PPS bookings fall below the prior-year $511.0 million, the signal that polymer has stabilized no longer holds.

Dover's first-half orders grew about 20% year over year, more than twice its 8% revenue growth, and the company raised its full-year earnings-per-share guidance while saying it may revisit it again after the third quarter. Can those orders turn into revenue, profit and cash in the third quarter?

The gap between orders and revenue is Dover's most important variable right now. First-half bookings were $4.795 billion, up about 20% from $3.998 billion a year earlier[6], while revenue grew 8%[3], leaving orders about $550 million above revenue. Management said clearly that it would stick to the full-year guidance it had already raised and would revisit it only if orders keep their pace through the end of the third quarter[7]; the third-quarter report is therefore the first checkpoint on order quality and capacity constraints, and the key quarter for whether full-year free cash flow reaches 14%-16% of revenue[24].

Second-quarter earnings already show operating leverage, but orders are still running ahead of shipments. Second-quarter revenue was $2.190 billion, up 6.9%, with organic growth of 4.8% and pricing of about 2.2%[26]; adjusted EPS was $2.74, up 12%[5]; and the adjusted EBITDA margin rose 80 basis points to 25.9%, with incremental margins of 38%[27]. Bookings were $2.331 billion, with year-over-year growth in all five segments; first-quarter bookings were $2.464 billion with a book-to-bill of 1.20, compared with third-quarter 2025 bookings of only $2.000 billion and a book-to-bill of 0.96[6]. On that basis the company raised its full-year organic growth guidance to 4%-6% and its adjusted EPS guidance to $10.55-$10.75[3].

Orders become cash only after production, delivery, revenue recognition and the collection of working capital. About 95% of revenue is recognized at the point of shipment[22], operating leverage then magnifies adjusted earnings and EPS, but inventory built for those deliveries was about $149 million higher than at the start of the year[25], and first-half free cash flow was only 7.5% of revenue[16]. The CEO acknowledged that book-to-bill was partly inflated by product Dover could not ship and that some customers ordered early to lock in capacity; asked about third-quarter EPS, he said the company does not give quarterly guidance[7]. The unresolved alternative is that a substantial share of orders were placed early or duplicated by customers coping with longer lead times, and would fall once lead times shorten; whether third-quarter orders turn negative year over year, and whether inventory falls as shipments rise, can separate real demand from early ordering.

Putting first-half actuals into the full-year guidance yields a test line for the third quarter. Subtracting first-half adjusted EPS of $5.02 from the full-year range of $10.55-$10.75 means the second half needs $5.53-$5.73, which is 7.8%-11.7% above the $5.13 earned in the second half of 2025[3][5]; assuming equal year-over-year growth in both second-half quarters, third-quarter adjusted EPS needs to reach about $2.82 for the low end of guidance to be within reach without a fourth-quarter acceleration. In the third-quarter report, watch whether adjusted EPS is at least $2.82, whether organic growth is at least 4%, whether orders grow year over year with book-to-bill of at least 1.0, whether free cash flow is at least the prior-year $370 million[16], and whether the company raises full-year guidance again. If third-quarter orders decline year over year, first-half order growth may have included early ordering.

Risks and Falsifiers

Raw material and tariff costs are the first risk to Dover's gross margin. The company uses large amounts of steel, copper and aluminum, whose prices can be volatile, and although it manages costs through index-based contracts with suppliers and customers, its operating results remain exposed[31]; the 160-basis-point rise in gross margin to 39.8% in 2025 came mainly from the price-cost spread[23], customer pricing added about 2.2% to second-quarter 2026 revenue[26], and management said geopolitics, input costs and trade and tariffs are factors it is managing closely[27]. If third-quarter gross and segment margins are flat or higher year over year and pricing still contributes about 2%, pricing is still keeping up with costs.

A shift in capital allocation toward acquisitions is the risk to the balance sheet. Management said industrial M&A markets have improved this year and that its pipeline holds a number of interesting opportunities, and that if it does no deals it will not sit on another year of cash but will turn to capital return[27]; at the end of June, cash was about $1.8 billion, total debt $3.260 billion and net debt 16.3% of net capitalization[25], and acquisition spending from 2023 through 2025 was about $1.9 billion[18]. If a large acquisition is expensive, money would move from buybacks into assets with a longer payback; the concern is falsified if no capital-structure-changing deal occurs around the third quarter, or if a new deal can reach a double-digit return on capital within three to four years.

Refrigeration plant output could stay short, which would directly cap CST profit. CST segment earnings were $75.83 million in the second quarter[12], and management estimated the output problem cost the whole company about 1 to 1.5 points of organic growth[13], which on second-quarter revenue of $2.190 billion is roughly $20 million to $30 million of deferred revenue[10]. If redundant plant costs and late deliveries continue into the second half, the CO2 system backlog will keep being recognized later; a third-quarter CST margin of at least 18.6% together with organic growth of at least 10% would falsify this risk.

Polymer processing equipment may recover more slowly than expected, which would hit PPS revenue and profit dollars. If customers keep digesting the capacity they built in recent years, long-cycle orders could ship only in 2027 or later, depressing the organic part of PPS's $552.7 million second-quarter revenue[14]; management said heavier polymer shipments would dilute the margin[15], so this risk shows up mainly in revenue and profit dollars rather than in the margin. Third-quarter PPS organic growth above 1.5% with book-to-bill of at least 1.0 would falsify this risk.

A reversal of early customer ordering is the risk that tests the whole order story. If customers ordered early or in excess to lock in scarce capacity, order growth could fall quickly once lead times shorten or demand slows, overstating both second-quarter consolidated bookings of $2.331 billion[6] and second-half revenue, while full-year guidance implies second-half adjusted EPS of $5.53-$5.73[3]. Third-quarter orders that grow year over year with book-to-bill of at least 1.0, while inventory falls as shipments rise[25], would falsify this risk.

What to Watch Next

• CST output recovery: whether the segment margin returns to at least the 18.6% of the third quarter of 2025 (16.7% in the second quarter of 2026); a margin below 16.7% would mean the recovery is delayed.
• CST demand: whether organic growth reaches double digits (8.3% in the second quarter) and book-to-bill stays above 1; bookings below the prior-year $415.1 million would point to slowing demand.
• CST execution: whether management confirms the roughly three-quarters-complete plant consolidation is finished and that SWEP is on track to double heat exchanger capacity within 12 months; further delays would push backlog recognition later.
• PPS volume: whether organic growth exceeds the roughly 1.5% pricing contribution (0.4% in the second quarter); negative organic growth would mean volume is still falling.
• PPS margin and orders: whether the margin holds near the first-half 31.9% and book-to-bill is at least 1.0; bookings below the prior-year $511.0 million would undercut the polymer stabilization signal.
• Order conversion: whether adjusted EPS is at least about $2.82 (versus $2.62 a year earlier and $2.74 in the second quarter); a lower figure would require a fourth-quarter acceleration.
• Consolidated orders: whether bookings grow from the prior-year $2.000 billion and organic growth is at least 4% (4.8% in the second quarter); a year-over-year decline would suggest early ordering.
• Cash and guidance: whether free cash flow is at least the prior-year $370 million on the way to 14%-16% of revenue, and whether guidance is raised again; inventory that does not fall and cash below last year would signal weak conversion.

Conclusion

Dover's results are driven by three things: equipment and component volumes spread across five segments, steady pricing power, and recurring revenue from a large installed base. Its current financial position is sound, with first-half 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.02, up 12%[3], and net debt at 16.3% of net capitalization at the end of June[25]; the unresolved question is the relationship between orders and output, because first-half bookings exceeded revenue by about $550 million[6], while the CST refrigeration plant consolidation and PPS polymer equipment limit how fast those orders become revenue, one from the capacity side and the other from the demand side.

Independent outside interpretation is scarce so far. A Citi earnings-season preview reported by Investing.com on October 14 said that with about 25% of Dover's 2026 revenue tied to secular growth markets and several capacity expansions under way, it sees "elevated visibility to largely sustainable mid-single-digit organic growth"[32]. That view points in the same direction as the company's book-to-bill above 1 and its 4%-6% organic growth guidance, supporting the more optimistic side of the order-conversion debate; but it addresses the visibility of demand and does not answer the two execution questions of whether CST refrigeration output recovers and whether PPS volume turns positive. Other outside commentary since the second-quarter report has mostly been results recaps, brokers' changes in their views on the stock and quantitative model previews, so only one usable independent view is available here, and as an outside interpretation it cannot substitute for actual third-quarter data.

The current understanding would be clearly strengthened if the third-quarter report shows all of the following together: a CST margin back above 18.6% with book-to-bill still above 1, PPS organic growth above its roughly 1.5% pricing contribution, year-over-year growth in consolidated orders, free cash flow of at least the prior-year $370 million, and another increase in full-year guidance. Conversely, a CST margin still below 16.7%, a year-over-year decline in consolidated orders, inventory that does not fall with shipments, or adjusted EPS below about $2.82 would suggest that first-half orders included early ordering, or that capacity constraints are more persistent than management has described.

Sources

[1] DOV 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · business overview and segments · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000009/dov-20251231.htm

[2] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-16) · DOV 2026-10-22 call · 2026-10-16 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] DOV 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · 2Q26 results and 2026 guidance · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000026/a202607238-kexhibit991pr.htm

[4] DOV 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · revenue growth factors 2Q26 · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000026/a202607238-kexhibit991pr.htm

[5] DOV 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · quarterly adjusted EPS 2025-2026 · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000026/a202607238-kexhibit991pr.htm

[6] DOV 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · quarterly bookings 2025-2026 · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000026/a202607238-kexhibit991pr.htm

[7] DOV Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-23 · orders, guidance and conversion · 2026-07-23 · earnings-call · https://www.dovercorporation.com/investors/events-presentations

[8] DOV 8-K filed 2026-04-23 · 1Q26 results and 2026 guidance · 2026-04-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000014/a202604238-kexhibit991pr.htm

[9] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-16) · DOV quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-16 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[10] DOV 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · quarterly segment revenue and earnings 2025-2026 · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000026/a202607238-kexhibit991pr.htm

[11] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-16) · DOV FY2026 · 2026-10-16 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[12] DOV 10-Q filed 2026-07-23 · Climate & Sustainability Technologies 2Q26 · 2026-07-23 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000027/dov-20260630.htm

[13] DOV Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-23 · refrigeration throughput · 2026-07-23 · earnings-call · https://www.dovercorporation.com/investors/events-presentations

[14] DOV 10-Q filed 2026-07-23 · Pumps & Process Solutions 2Q26 · 2026-07-23 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000027/dov-20260630.htm

[15] DOV Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-23 · polymer processing and pumps · 2026-07-23 · earnings-call · https://www.dovercorporation.com/investors/events-presentations

[16] DOV 8-K filed 2026-07-23 · quarterly cash flow and free cash flow · 2026-07-23 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000026/a202607238-kexhibit991pr.htm

[17] DOV 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · customers, employees and international revenue · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000009/dov-20251231.htm

[18] DOV 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · capital allocation and acquisition strategy · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000009/dov-20251231.htm

[19] DOV 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · free cash flow and capitalization 2025 · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000009/dov-20251231.htm

[20] DOV 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · segment results 2025 · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000009/dov-20251231.htm

[21] DOV 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · component and aftermarket operating models · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000009/dov-20251231.htm

[22] DOV 10-Q filed 2026-07-23 · revenue recognition and capital return · 2026-07-23 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000027/dov-20260630.htm

[23] DOV 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · consolidated results 2025 · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000009/dov-20251231.htm

[24] DOV Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-23 · cash flow and capex · 2026-07-23 · earnings-call · https://www.dovercorporation.com/investors/events-presentations

[25] DOV 10-Q filed 2026-07-23 · adjusted working capital and liquidity · 2026-07-23 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000027/dov-20260630.htm

[26] DOV 10-Q filed 2026-07-23 · consolidated revenue and pricing 2Q26 · 2026-07-23 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000027/dov-20260630.htm

[27] DOV Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-23 · secular markets, costs and M&A · 2026-07-23 · earnings-call · https://www.dovercorporation.com/investors/events-presentations

[28] DOV Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-23 · segment outlook and seasonality · 2026-04-23 · earnings-call · https://www.dovercorporation.com/investors/events-presentations

[29] DOV Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-23 · heat exchanger capacity · 2026-07-23 · earnings-call · https://www.dovercorporation.com/investors/events-presentations

[30] DOV 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · Pumps & Process Solutions 2025 · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000009/dov-20251231.htm

[31] DOV 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · raw materials and commodity pricing · 2026-02-13 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29905/000002990526000009/dov-20251231.htm

[32] Investing.com 2026-10-14 · Citi Names Top Electrical Equipment Stocks Ahead of Earnings Season · 2026-10-14 · Investing.com(报道 Citi 研究观点) · https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/citi-names-top-electrical-equipment-stocks-ahead-of-earnings-season-4949860