Amgen (AMGN) Q3 2026 Earnings: Prolia Erosion Speeds Up, Repatha Fills Gap

Amgen (AMGN) Q3 2026 earnings showed biosimilar erosion of Prolia and XGEVA accelerating sharply, while Repatha and other growth brands filled the gap and the company raised its full-year guidance [1][2]. Amgen reported third-quarter 2026 results on November 3, 2026, through an 8-K earnings release and its earnings call [1][2]. Combined sales of the two denosumab products (Prolia and XGEVA share the same active ingredient) fell from $1,111 million in the second quarter to $920 million, while Repatha passed $1 billion in a single quarter for the first time after an oral competitor was approved [1][3]. Whether margins can hold as research spending rises is still unsettled: the third-quarter non-GAAP operating margin was 47.3%, helped in part by delayed selling and administrative investment, and the company kept its full-year range of 45% to 46% [1][2]. Amgen's operating structure has not changed; both the loss from older products and the replacement from newer brands are speeding up.

Amgen is one of the earliest companies in the biotechnology industry and sells innovative medicines and biosimilars for cardiovascular, bone, inflammatory, rare and oncology diseases [4]. In the United States it supplies clinics, hospitals and pharmacies mainly through wholesalers, and almost all of its revenue comes from product sales [4]. Third-quarter total revenues were $10.365 billion, up 8% year over year [1].

Prolia and XGEVA Fall Below $1 Billion a Quarter

Denosumab sales declined much faster than in the first half. In the third quarter Prolia sales were $632 million and XGEVA sales were $288 million; the combined total fell 17% from the second quarter and 45% from a year earlier [1][3]. From the first quarter to the second quarter the combined figure had declined only 2.4%, and this quarter confirmed the company's earlier statement that sales erosion would accelerate in 2026 [5].

Lost volume was the main cause, and the oncology channel lost volume fastest. Prolia volume fell 23% year over year (20% in the second quarter), with the remainder of the decline split equally between lower net selling price and changes to estimated sales deductions; XGEVA volume fell 32% (22% in the second quarter) and its net selling price fell 11% [1]. Prolia U.S. sales fell from $478 million in the second quarter to $409 million, so the second-quarter rebound did not continue [1][3]. Price concessions remained around 11%, and changes to estimated sales deductions are accounting adjustments that may not repeat every quarter.

Denosumab sales were about $760 million lower than a year earlier, equal to about 7.7% of product sales, and these are high-margin mature products [1]. EVENITY sales rose 39% to $751 million, which shows that Amgen's prescriber base in osteoporosis remains intact, but the data do not show that Prolia patients switched to EVENITY [1].

Progress: Repatha Accelerates After an Oral Rival's Approval

Repatha showed no sign of losing prescriptions in its first full quarter after an oral competitor was approved. Third-quarter sales were $1,085 million, up 37% year over year and 14% from the second quarter, driven mainly by volume [1][3]. U.S. sales were $666 million, up 31% from the second quarter; sales outside the United States were $419 million, slightly lower, and the company did not explain why [1][3].

Management attributed the growth to physicians intensifying cholesterol-lowering treatment earlier. The company said average weekly U.S. new-to-brand prescriptions rose more than 60% year over year, and that new American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association guidelines also support earlier use of this class of medicines [2].

Repatha's sales rose by about $290 million year over year, offsetting about 40% of the denosumab shortfall, with other growth brands covering the rest; the company said its six key growth drivers grew 27% combined [1][2]. Amgen had expected Repatha's net selling price to decline by about a mid-single-digit percentage in 2026; it did not disclose Repatha's net price separately this quarter, so that expectation still needs confirmation in the full quarterly report [6][1].

Conclusion

The gap left by products that have lost patent protection widened, yet total product sales still grew 8% [1]. Amgen raised its full-year revenue guidance to $38.9 billion to $39.7 billion, and its non-GAAP EPS guidance from $22.30 to $23.50 to $22.90 to $23.70 [7][1].

Profit and cash generation are stable for now, but timing effects are involved. Non-GAAP cost of sales (the company's measure excluding acquisition amortization and similar items) rose 1.1 percentage points as a share of product sales because of higher profit share expense and sales mix, research and development rose 11%, and the margin held partly because selling and administrative investment was delayed [1][2]. The company said fourth-quarter operating expenses will rise meaningfully and that it does not expect a step down in its 2027 operating margin compared with 2026 guidance [2]. Third-quarter free cash flow was $3.65 billion, below $4.25 billion a year earlier, which the company attributed to working capital [1].

The next report will test three things: whether denosumab sales stabilize near $900 million a quarter, whether Repatha keeps growing more than 30% year over year, and whether the full-year margin lands within 45% to 46%. The Prolia net price split and the dollar amount of collaboration profit share have not yet been disclosed.

Sources

[1] AMGN 8-K filed 2026-11-03 · Q3 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1), 2026-11-03, 8-K, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000031815426000153/amgn-20260930earningsrelea.htm [2] AMGN Q3 2026 earnings call 2026-11-03 · transcript, 2026-11-03, earnings_call, drillr://earning_call_summary/AMGN/2026-11-03 [3] AMGN 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 2026 revenues by product and region, 2026-08-05, 10-Q, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000318154&type=10-Q [4] AMGN 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · business overview and principal products, 2026-02-13, 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000318154&type=10-K [5] AMGN 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · Prolia and XGEVA 2025 drivers and 2026 erosion outlook, 2026-02-13, 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000318154&type=10-K [6] AMGN 10-K filed 2026-02-13 · Repatha 2025 drivers and 2026 net price outlook, 2026-02-13, 10-K, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000318154&type=10-K [7] AMGN 8-K filed 2026-08-04 · 2026 guidance, 2026-08-04, 8-K, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000318154&type=8-K