AMGNHealthcareBiotechnology·Sep 3, 2026·8 min read

[AMGN] Amgen Thesis 2026: Core Portfolio Grows While Buyback Program Pauses

Amgen FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $36.75B revenue (+10%). US product $25.66B (+10%); ROW $9.49B (+9%); other $1.6B (+15%). Top growth: Repatha $3.0B (+36%), Tezspire $1.48B (+52%), Evenity $2.10B (+34%), Blincyto $1.56B (+28%). Enbrel $2.23B (-33%, US biosimilar erosion Y3). Operating income $9.08B (+25%); net income $7.71B (+89% partly inflated by $2B equity gain); diluted EPS $14.23. OCF $9.96B; capex $1.86B (+69%); FCF $8.10B. $0 buybacks; $5.1B dividend; $5.7B debt paydown. Net principal debt $56.04B (vs $61.78B FY24). 12 analysts: 4 Buy / 8 Hold; consensus $366.67, range $326-$432.

AMGN: FY25 Deep Dive

FY25 revenue $36.75B (+10%) — Repatha $3.0B (+36%), Tezspire $1.48B (+52%), Evenity $2.1B (+34%) the growth engine. Enbrel collapsed -33% on biosimilar erosion. Net income $7.71B (+89% YoY, partly equity-gain inflated). $0 buybacks for second time in three years; $5.1B dividend held. 12 analysts: 4 Buy / 8 Hold consensus $367.

Key Takeaways

Amgen closed fiscal 2025 (calendar year ended December 31, 2025) at $36.75 billion of total revenue, up 10% YoY — a clean acceleration above the FY24 +7% pace, driven by the post-Horizon-Therapeutics integration assets (Tepezza, Krystexxa, Uplizna) plus organic growth in Repatha (+36% to $3.0B), Tezspire (+52% to $1.48B), and Evenity (+34% to $2.1B). The growth was partially masked by Enbrel's -33% collapse to $2.23 billion as US biosimilar erosion accelerated in the third year post-LOE. Operating income reached $9.08 billion (+25%, the cleaner profit-quality metric). Reported net income surged to $7.71 billion (+89% YoY) and diluted EPS to $14.23 (+88%) — but the print was inflated by $2.06 billion of mark-to-market gains on equity securities (vs $159M loss FY24); the underlying operational earnings growth is closer to the +25% operating income trajectory. Operating cash flow was $9.96 billion (vs $11.49B FY24, partly on working capital seasonality), capex stepped up 69% to $1.86 billion (manufacturing buildout), free cash flow $8.10 billion. Capital allocation continued the deleveraging-over-buyback model: $0 in buybacks for FY25 (vs $200M FY24), $5.1 billion in dividends, and $5.7 billion of debt repayment / extinguishment. Net principal debt declined from $61.78B to $56.04B. Sell-side coverage is 12 analysts: 4 Buy / 8 Hold / 0 Sell, consensus PT $366.67, range $326-$432 — the Hold-heavy tilt reflects MariTide (GLP-1 obesity Phase 3) overhang and Enbrel erosion concerns.


Main business structure

Amgen reports a single biopharmaceutical operating segment with revenue disaggregated by product and geography:

Revenue categoryFY25 ($M)FY24 ($M)YoY
US Product Sales25,65623,301+10%
ROW Product Sales9,4928,725+9%
Total Product Sales35,14832,026+10%
Other Revenues (royalties, milestones)1,6031,398+15%
Total Revenue36,75133,424+10%

Top 10 products (FY25 Total $M)

RankProductFY25YoYTherapeutic area
1Prolia4,414+1%Osteoporosis
2Repatha3,016+36%PCSK9 — cholesterol
3Otezla2,265+6%Psoriasis / PsA
4ENBREL2,226-33%Anti-TNF — biosimilar erosion
5EVENITY2,100+34%Osteoporosis (post-fracture)
6XGEVA2,084-6%Bone metastases
7TEPEZZA1,903+3%Thyroid eye disease (Horizon)
8BLINCYTO1,559+28%Acute lymphoblastic leukemia
9Nplate1,524+5%ITP
10TEZSPIRE1,478+52%Severe asthma (AZN partnership)

The five accelerators. Repatha (+36%), Tezspire (+52%), Evenity (+34%), Blincyto (+28%), and Tepezza (+3%) are the named growth franchises driving the +10% top line. Repatha + Evenity together added ~$1.3B of incremental revenue; Tezspire + Blincyto added another ~$0.85B; this offset Enbrel's -$1.1B drag.

Enbrel erosion. The TNF-blocker franchise lost $1.1B of revenue YoY (-33%) — biosimilar competition accelerated in Year 3 post-US LOE. Enbrel was Amgen's largest single product as recently as FY18; the slow-decline-then-collapse pattern is roughly consistent with industry biosimilar erosion curves.

Horizon Therapeutics integration (closed October 2023). Brought Tepezza ($1.9B FY25), Krystexxa, Uplizna, Tavneos, Actimmune. The acquisition cost $27.8B and added the long-tail debt position; FY25 was Year 2 of integration and the assets contributed ~$3-3.5B of revenue.

Geographic mix. US product sales 73% of total — heavier US concentration than peer big pharma (Pfizer, Merck both ~50%). Reflects high-priced specialty biologics product mix.

Customer concentration. Three large drug distributors dominate US specialty distribution per industry standard.

Scale anchors. ~28,000 employees globally. R&D spend ~$5.5-6B annually (~16% of revenue). 11 manufacturing sites globally.


Key core metrics (3-year trend)

1. Revenue growth — Horizon-accelerated growth phase

FY23FY24FY25
Revenue ($B)28.233.436.75
YoY+18%+10%

FY24's +18% was the Horizon-acquisition year (full-year contribution started). FY25 +10% is the clean post-integration organic + acquisition combined growth rate.

2. Operating leverage and reported earnings

FY24FY25
Operating income ($B)7.269.08 (+25%)
Net income ($B)4.097.71 (+89%)
Diluted EPS$7.56$14.23 (+88%)

The +89% net income growth is a noisy print: it includes $2.06B of unrealized gains on equity securities and tax dynamics. The +25% operating income is the cleaner earnings signal.

3. The post-Horizon deleveraging program

FY23FY24FY25
Total debt principal ($B)64.961.7856.04
Buybacks ($M)02000
Dividends ($B)4.74.95.1
Debt repayment ($B)5.7

Two consecutive years (FY23 + FY25) of $0 buyback while net debt was paid down by ~$9B over three years from the Horizon-deal peak. Buyback authorization remains at $6.8B but management is prioritizing deleveraging.

4. Free cash flow

FY23FY24FY25
OCF ($B)8.4711.499.96
Capex ($B)1.111.101.86
FCF ($B)7.3610.398.10

FCF dipped from $10.4B → $8.1B in FY25 — partly working capital (trade receivables -$2.7B), partly the +69% capex step-up for manufacturing buildout (Ohio site, Repatha capacity, Tezspire ramp). Capex elevation likely persists FY26-FY27.


Market evaluation

Sell-side coverage (as of April 27, 2026). 12 analysts cover the stock.

RatingCount
Buy / Outperform / Overweight4
Hold / Equal-Weight / Neutral8
Sell0

Price targets. Consensus $366.67, range $326 (low: Morgan Stanley, EW) to $432 (high: Piper Sandler, OW).

Recent analyst activity (February through April 2026). 15 covered actions in the window — a mix of PT raises and three new initiations:

  • Piper Sandler (David Amsellem): $381 → $432 on February 18 — Street-high, OW maintained
  • UBS (Michael Yee): $390 → $400 on April 13 — Buy maintained
  • Wells Fargo (Mohit Bansal): $325 → $375 on February 19 — largest single raise (+$50), EW maintained
  • Morgan Stanley (Terence Flynn): $309 → $326 on April 10 — Street-low, EW maintained
  • Canaccord Genuity: initiated Hold at $366 in the window
  • Jefferies: initiated Hold at $350
  • Barclays: initiated Equal-Weight at $350

The 8 Hold ratings (heavy for a large-cap pharma) cluster around two concerns: (1) Enbrel decline acceleration risk, (2) MariTide (Phase 3 GLP-1 obesity asset) — the catalyst that defines the Amgen 12-24 month thesis. Piper's $432 bull case bakes in MariTide commercial success; Morgan Stanley's $326 implicitly discounts MariTide. The three new initiations all came in at Hold/EW — reflecting Street caution heading into the Phase 3 readout.

Buy-side positioning. AMGN is a core specialty biotech holding. Yield-and-growth profile: ~3% dividend yield with single-digit revenue growth ex-Enbrel. Short interest ~2.5% of float — moderately elevated.


FY25 corporate structure: Horizon-bridge working, MariTide overhang

FY25 is the year that the post-Horizon integration thesis printed cleanly on revenue growth (+10%) and operating leverage (+25% OpInc) — but the Hold-heavy Street positioning (8 of 12 ratings) signals that the Amgen 12-24 month thesis is fundamentally about the MariTide Phase 3 GLP-1 obesity readout rather than the FY25 base. The growth-asset list (Repatha, Tezspire, Evenity, Blincyto) compounded as expected; the Enbrel collapse (-33%) hit on schedule; capital allocation prioritized deleveraging ($0 buybacks, $5.7B debt paydown) over shareholder returns. The two structural questions for FY26: (1) does MariTide produce a competitive efficacy / tolerability profile vs Lilly's tirzepatide and Novo's semaglutide, and what's the timeline to commercial launch? (2) does the Enbrel decline pace stabilize at -20% or accelerate further into FY26-FY27? The Q1 FY26 earnings print this week is the proximate event for any updated commentary on MariTide trial timeline, FY26 revenue guide, and the buyback resumption question (with $6.8B authorization sitting unused).

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