Research · Sep 3, 2026
[PBA] Pembina Pipeline Thesis 2026: Cedar LNG FID Drives Western Canadian NGL Volume Growth
Pembina Pipeline Corporation (NYSE: PBA) FY2025 revenue ~C$10-11B (~$7-7.7B; +0-5%) with adj. EPS ~C$3.10-3.55 reflecting continued ~3.3 mmboe/d aggregate Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) crude oil + NGL + natural gas pipeline + storage + processing throughput plus selected post-June 2024 ~C$5.7B aggregate Cedar LNG joint venture FID announcement + selected post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition completion (~50% Enbridge stake purchase) under continued President + CEO Scott Burrows (~3-year tenure since January 2023). One of Canada's largest midstream energy infrastructure operators with operations across Canada + selected various US midstream infrastructure. Founded 1954 in Calgary Alberta Canada (~71-year heritage); selected post-1997 Pembina Pipeline Income Fund TSX listing IPO; selected post-2010 corporation conversion + TSX + NYSE listing; selected post-October 2017 ~C$9.7B Veresen Inc. acquisition; selected post-January 2023 Scott Burrows CEO appointment; selected post-June 2024 Cedar LNG FID; selected post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition completion. Headquartered in Calgary Alberta Canada; ~3,000+ employees globally with ~C$10-11B revenue. Three primary business segments: Pipelines (~50% revenue ~C$5-5.5B), Facilities (~30% ~C$3-3.3B), Marketing + New Ventures (~20% ~C$2-2.2B). Cedar LNG FID acceleration: post-June 2024 Cedar LNG joint venture (Pembina ~50% + Haisla Nation ~50%) FID announcement; ~3 MTPA aggregate capacity covering selected first Indigenous-led LNG export project Canada; ~C$5.7B aggregate capex (Pembina share ~C$2.85B); selected expected first cargo H2 2028; selected continued post-2024 commercial offtake agreements. Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition: post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate (selected ~50% Enbridge stake purchase creating Pembina full ownership); Aux Sable major NGL fractionation Channahon Illinois + Alliance Pipeline (~3,800+ km WCSB to US Midwest natural gas pipeline); ~$0.8-1.2B aggregate annual revenue contribution. Aggregate Western Canadian throughput ~3.3 mmboe/d FY2025: Pembina conventional pipeline system + Peace Pipeline + Cochin Pipeline + Alliance Pipeline (post-2024 100% Pembina) + selected various NGL fractionation + storage. President + CEO Scott Burrows since January 2023 (~3-year tenure); CFO Cameron Goldade. Capital return: ~C$2.74-2.86 annual dividend FY2025 (~+3-5% growth; ~25-year continuous dividend track post-2000 initiation); modest buybacks; aggregate capital return ~C$1.5-1.7B; net leverage ratio ~3.5-4.0x; investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Cedar LNG FID + Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition integration + aggregate WCSB throughput growth + ~25-year continuous dividend track + selected post-2024 net leverage normalization. Risks: WCSB upstream production cycle, natural gas + NGL pricing, Cedar LNG capex deployment, Canadian + US pipeline regulatory + permitting, USD/CAD volatility.