Pembina Pipeline Corporation (NYSE: PBA) FY2025 revenue ~C$10-11B (~$7-7.7B; +0-5%) with adj. EPS ~C$3.10-3.55 reflecting continued ~3.3 mmboe/d aggregate Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) crude oil + NGL + natural gas pipeline + storage + processing throughput plus selected post-June 2024 ~C$5.7B aggregate Cedar LNG joint venture FID announcement + selected post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition completion (~50% Enbridge stake purchase) under continued President + CEO Scott Burrows (~3-year tenure since January 2023). One of Canada's largest midstream energy infrastructure operators with operations across Canada + selected various US midstream infrastructure. Founded 1954 in Calgary Alberta Canada (~71-year heritage); selected post-1997 Pembina Pipeline Income Fund TSX listing IPO; selected post-2010 corporation conversion + TSX + NYSE listing; selected post-October 2017 ~C$9.7B Veresen Inc. acquisition; selected post-January 2023 Scott Burrows CEO appointment; selected post-June 2024 Cedar LNG FID; selected post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition completion. Headquartered in Calgary Alberta Canada; ~3,000+ employees globally with ~C$10-11B revenue. Three primary business segments: Pipelines (~50% revenue ~C$5-5.5B), Facilities (~30% ~C$3-3.3B), Marketing + New Ventures (~20% ~C$2-2.2B). Cedar LNG FID acceleration: post-June 2024 Cedar LNG joint venture (Pembina ~50% + Haisla Nation ~50%) FID announcement; ~3 MTPA aggregate capacity covering selected first Indigenous-led LNG export project Canada; ~C$5.7B aggregate capex (Pembina share ~C$2.85B); selected expected first cargo H2 2028; selected continued post-2024 commercial offtake agreements. Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition: post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate (selected ~50% Enbridge stake purchase creating Pembina full ownership); Aux Sable major NGL fractionation Channahon Illinois + Alliance Pipeline (~3,800+ km WCSB to US Midwest natural gas pipeline); ~$0.8-1.2B aggregate annual revenue contribution. Aggregate Western Canadian throughput ~3.3 mmboe/d FY2025: Pembina conventional pipeline system + Peace Pipeline + Cochin Pipeline + Alliance Pipeline (post-2024 100% Pembina) + selected various NGL fractionation + storage. President + CEO Scott Burrows since January 2023 (~3-year tenure); CFO Cameron Goldade. Capital return: ~C$2.74-2.86 annual dividend FY2025 (~+3-5% growth; ~25-year continuous dividend track post-2000 initiation); modest buybacks; aggregate capital return ~C$1.5-1.7B; net leverage ratio ~3.5-4.0x; investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Cedar LNG FID + Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition integration + aggregate WCSB throughput growth + ~25-year continuous dividend track + selected post-2024 net leverage normalization. Risks: WCSB upstream production cycle, natural gas + NGL pricing, Cedar LNG capex deployment, Canadian + US pipeline regulatory + permitting, USD/CAD volatility.

[PBA] Pembina Pipeline Thesis 2026: Cedar LNG FID Drives Western Canadian NGL Volume Growth

Key Takeaways

Pembina Pipeline Corporation (NYSE: PBA) FY2025 revenue ~~C$10-11B (~~$7-7.7B; +0-5% YoY) with adj. EPS ~C$3.10-3.55 reflecting continued ~3.3 mmboe/d aggregate Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) crude oil + NGL + natural gas pipeline + storage + processing throughput plus selected post-June 2024 ~C$5.7B aggregate Cedar LNG joint venture (Pembina ~50% + Haisla Nation ~50%) FID announcement + selected post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition completion (~50% Enbridge stake purchase) under continued President + CEO Scott Burrows (~3-year tenure since January 2023; ex-Pembina CFO 2017-January 2023 + ex-various Pembina roles + ~20-year company career; succeeded Mick Dilger 2014-January 2023 retired).
Cedar LNG FID acceleration: post-June 2024 Cedar LNG joint venture (Pembina ~50% + Haisla Nation ~50%) FID announcement; ~3 MTPA aggregate capacity covering selected first Indigenous-led LNG export project Canada; selected ~C$5.7B aggregate capex (Pembina share ~C$2.85B); selected expected first cargo H2 2028; selected continued post-2024 commercial offtake agreements with selected various.
Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition: post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition completion (selected ~50% Enbridge stake purchase); selected major NGL fractionation + Alliance Pipeline (selected key WCSB to US Midwest natural gas pipeline) full ownership; selected ~$0.8-1.2B aggregate annual revenue contribution.
Capital return: ~C$2.74-2.86 annual dividend FY2025 (~C$0.685-0.715/quarter; selected post-2024 ~3-5% increase; selected ~25-year continuous dividend track post-2000 dividend initiation following Pembina founding); selected modest opportunistic buybacks; ~C$1.5-1.7B aggregate FY2025 capital return; selected post-2024 net leverage ratio ~3.5-4.0x net debt-to-EBITDA target; investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating; FY2026 catalyst: continued capital deployment + Cedar LNG capex.

Company Background

Pembina Pipeline Corporation (NYSE: PBA) is one of Canada's largest midstream energy infrastructure operators with FY2025 revenue ~~C$10-11B (~~$7-7.7B; +0-5% YoY) and adj. EPS ~C$3.10-3.55 reflecting continued ~3.3 mmboe/d aggregate Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) crude oil + NGL + natural gas pipeline + storage + processing throughput. The company employs ~3,000+ globally with operations across Canada + selected various US midstream infrastructure including selected major Alliance Pipeline + Aux Sable + selected various NGL fractionation + selected various.

Founded 1954 as Pembina Pipeline Corporation in Calgary Alberta Canada (~71-year heritage); selected post-1997 Pembina Pipeline Income Fund Toronto Stock Exchange listing IPO; selected post-2010 Pembina Pipeline Corporation conversion from income trust to corporation; selected post-2010 Toronto Stock Exchange + NYSE listing; selected post-October 2017 ~C$9.7B Veresen Inc. acquisition (selected major NGL midstream + selected various); selected post-2021 ~C$8.3B Inter Pipeline acquisition attempt (subsequently abandoned to Brookfield Infrastructure); selected post-January 2023 Scott Burrows CEO appointment + selected post-2023 Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition announcement; selected post-June 2024 Cedar LNG joint venture FID announcement; selected post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition completion.

Headquartered in Calgary Alberta Canada; ~3,000+ employees globally with ~C$10-11B revenue. Three primary business segments: Pipelines (~50% revenue ~C$5-5.5B — selected major NGL + crude oil + natural gas pipelines including ~3,300+ km Pembina conventional pipeline system + ~3,800+ km Alliance Pipeline + selected various; ~3.3 mmboe/d aggregate throughput), Facilities (~30% revenue ~C$3-3.3B — selected major NGL fractionation + storage including selected major Redwater Alberta NGL fractionation + Aux Sable + selected various), Marketing + New Ventures (~20% revenue ~C$2-2.2B — selected major NGL + crude oil + natural gas marketing + Cedar LNG joint venture + selected various).

President + CEO Scott Burrows since January 2023 (~3-year tenure); succeeded Mick Dilger (CEO 2014-January 2023 retired); Burrows ex-Pembina CFO 2017-January 2023 + ex-various Pembina roles + ~20-year company career. CFO Cameron Goldade (since post-2023; ex-Pembina Treasurer + selected various roles + ~15-year company career); selected continued strategic priorities include Cedar LNG FID execution + Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline integration + selected post-2024 selected various capital return acceleration.

Cedar LNG Joint Venture FID

Post-June 2024 Cedar LNG joint venture FID announcement:

Joint venture structure: Pembina ~50% + Haisla Nation ~50% (selected first Indigenous-led LNG export project Canada)
Capacity: ~3 MTPA aggregate
Aggregate capex: ~C$5.7B (Pembina share ~C$2.85B)
Selected location: selected Kitimat British Columbia (selected adjacent to LNG Canada Phase 1 site)
Selected first cargo: expected H2 2028
Commercial offtake: selected continued post-2024 commercial offtake agreements with selected various (ARC Resources + selected various)

FY2026 catalyst: continued Cedar LNG capex deployment + selected various commercial offtake announcements + ~C$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution post-2028 commercial deployment.

Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline Acquisition

Post-2024 Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition:

Aggregate transaction: ~$3-4B aggregate (selected ~50% Enbridge stake purchase creating Pembina full ownership)
Aux Sable: selected major NGL fractionation + selected various Channahon Illinois US Midwest NGL fractionation + selected various
Alliance Pipeline: selected key WCSB to US Midwest natural gas pipeline (~3,800+ km)
Selected ~$0.8-1.2B aggregate annual revenue contribution: selected continued post-2024 various integration

FY2026 catalyst: continued Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline integration + ~C$0.20-0.40 incremental annual EPS contribution.

Aggregate Western Canadian Throughput

Pembina aggregate ~3.3 mmboe/d Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin throughput FY2025:

Pembina conventional pipeline system: ~3,300+ km aggregate pipelines
Peace Pipeline: selected major Alberta NGL + crude oil pipeline
Cochin Pipeline: selected major Saskatchewan + Alberta NGL pipeline
Alliance Pipeline: ~3,800+ km natural gas pipeline (post-2024 100% Pembina)
Selected various NGL fractionation: Redwater Alberta + Aux Sable + selected various
Selected various storage: selected various Alberta + Saskatchewan + Illinois NGL + crude oil storage

FY2026 catalyst: continued aggregate throughput + ~C$0.10-0.30 incremental EPS contribution.

Risks

WCSB production: continued WCSB upstream production cycle
Natural gas + NGL pricing: continued natural gas + NGL pricing volatility
Cedar LNG execution: continued Cedar LNG capex deployment + selected various execution
Selected various regulatory: continued Canadian + US pipeline regulatory + permitting risk
Currency: USD/CAD volatility could compress USD-reported earnings

Key Core Metrics

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2026 outlook
Revenue	C$10-11B	C$8.7B	C$10.6B	C$11.6B	C$11-12B
Adj. EBITDA	C$4.0-4.4B	C$4.0B	C$3.7B	C$3.7B	C$4.3-4.7B
Adj. EPS (CAD)	C$3.10-3.55	C$2.95	C$2.65	C$2.95	C$3.30-3.80
Adj. EBITDA margin	38-41%	46%	35%	32%	38-41%
Throughput (mmboe/d)	3.3	3.0	2.9	2.9	3.4-3.5

Capital return	FY2025	FY2024	FY2026 outlook
Dividend	C$2.74-2.86	C$2.66	C$2.86-3.00
Buybacks	modest	modest	modest
Total return	C$1.5-1.7B	C$1.5B	C$1.6-1.8B
~25-year track	continuous	continuous	continuous (~26 years)

Market Evaluation

Pembina Pipeline trades at selected ~12-15x FY2026 P/E discount vs Enbridge (~17-20x) + TC Energy (~16-19x) + Williams Companies (~15-17x) + selected various Canadian + US midstream peers reflecting selected continued ~3.3 mmboe/d aggregate WCSB throughput + selected post-June 2024 Cedar LNG joint venture FID + selected post-2024 Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition completion + selected ~25-year continuous dividend track. Selected re-rating catalysts include: (1) continued Cedar LNG FID + capex deployment; (2) Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline integration + ~$0.8-1.2B aggregate annual revenue contribution; (3) aggregate throughput growth toward ~3.4-3.5 mmboe/d FY2026; (4) ~25-year dividend track + ~3-5% annual growth; (5) selected continued post-2024 net leverage normalization toward ~3.5-4.0x.

Cedar LNG Joint Venture Strategic Inflection Deep Dive

Pembina Pipeline Cedar LNG joint venture FID represents selected primary strategic inflection vehicle vs traditional Canadian + US midstream peers (Enbridge + TC Energy + Williams Companies + selected various). Selected post-June 2024 Cedar LNG joint venture (Pembina ~50% + Haisla Nation ~50%) FID announcement creates selected first Indigenous-led LNG export project in Canada with selected ~3 MTPA aggregate capacity covering selected Kitimat British Columbia (adjacent to LNG Canada Phase 1 site). Selected ~C$5.7B aggregate capex (Pembina share ~C$2.85B) supports selected post-2024 commercial offtake agreements with selected various (ARC Resources + selected various) + selected expected first cargo H2 2028 timeline. Selected post-2028 Cedar LNG commercial deployment supports selected ~C$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution + selected continued WCSB natural gas demand creation supporting upstream + selected various Pembina midstream throughput. Selected post-2024 ~$3-4B aggregate Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition completion supports selected continued integrated NGL fractionation + WCSB to US Midwest natural gas pipeline + selected various integrated midstream value chain. FY2026 catalyst: continued Cedar LNG capex deployment + Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline integration + ~C$0.20-0.40 incremental annual EPS contribution.

FY2026 thesis: Cedar LNG FID + Aux Sable + Alliance Pipeline acquisition integration + aggregate WCSB throughput growth + ~25-year continuous dividend track + selected post-2024 net leverage normalization.