Research · Sep 3, 2026
Apollo Global Management FY2025 AUM reached ~$870B+ (largest independent alt asset manager, +60% from $548B FY2022). Adj. EPS ~$8.20. Fee-related earnings (FRE) ~$4.5B + spread-related earnings (SRE) ~$3.5B = ~$8B operational earnings combining asset management (FRE) + insurance (SRE) economics. Origination platform — Apollo's strategic differentiator — scaled to ~$200B+ FY2025 origination volume (vs $80B FY2022 = 2.5x scale-up); origination represents ~50% of new AUM origination supporting structural competitive advantage vs peer alt asset managers reliant on third-party origination. Athene Insurance: $400B insurance assets, $3.5B SRE FY2025 (vs $1.6B FY2022 = 2.2x growth). FY2026 thesis: origination scaling continues toward $250-300B annually; Athene insurance assets toward $500B+ FY2027 with SRE $5B+; total AUM compounding toward $1T+ FY2027; key risks: origination competitive pressure from peers building capabilities, Athene credit issues, AUM growth deceleration.
Research · Aug 25, 2026
Altius Minerals and Clearway Energy told 2026 earnings calls that fewer investors bid to finance US renewable projects; Altius took GBR from 29% to 50%.
Research · Aug 25, 2026
Non-traded fund redemptions of 10-38% pulled bidders out of large sponsor loans; KBDC printed SOFR+566 and FSK saw spreads up to 75bp wider.
Research · Jun 13, 2026
KKR public: AI productivity boom continuing. 100bp portfolio margin lift implies $18B fair value adjustment vs $90B market cap.
Research · Jun 10, 2026
Banks transferred $1T loan risk via SRT (+26% YoY). Alt managers ARES, KKR, BX capture premium income. Hidden side of private credit retail stress.
Research · Jun 10, 2026
Blackstone is marketing $2B of private fund stakes in the secondary market. What active liquidity management means vs prior BCRED gates.
Research · Jun 10, 2026
UBS Mish projects private credit defaults at 14-15% in AI-disruption tail scenario versus current 4.5%. ARCC has structural absorbers but limited cushion.
Research · Jun 9, 2026
Apollo co-led a $35B Anthropic chip-financing deal. APO net retained exposure is $5-8B, with $200-280M in fees plus Athene-channeled economics.
Research · Jun 6, 2026
Blackstone raised the BCRED $79B fund redemption gate from 7.9% to 10% as withdrawals surge. What it signals for private credit and BREIT parallels.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
The Federal Reserve's scrutiny of banks' private credit exposure creates a divergence in financial stocks: traditional banks like JPMorgan face regulatory risks while alternative asset managers like Blackstone and Apollo stand to gain market share. This analysis ranks six financial giants based on their exposure and positioning for the coming regulatory changes.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
Apollo's Q3 8-K earnings reveal record $733B AUM and $29B net inflows, accelerating FRE 23% YoY to $652M amid credit origination strength. Management guides 20%+ FRE growth in 2026, but prepays and rates pose risks. Bullish on the flywheel, watch wealth and deployment.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
PE exit volumes slumped amid high rates, AI disruptions, and Iran war volatility, spotlighting managers like Blackstone and Apollo with strong FRE and credit focus over realization-heavy peers. Analysis ranks BX, APO, and BAM as top picks based on FY2025 growth, margins, and guidance. Investors should monitor Q1 realizations and rate cuts.
