Research · Sep 3, 2026
[AFRM] Affirm Thesis 2026: Affirm Card Scales Toward 5M Users as BNPL Reaches GAAP Profitability
Affirm reached FY2025 with GMV of ~$30.5B (+35%), approaching GAAP operating breakeven after three years of loss reduction. The Affirm Card — a Visa debit card allowing retroactive installment conversion — drove 25-30% of GMV and is the primary FY2026 growth vector toward 5M+ active card holders. Credit quality improved to 30+ day delinquency ~1.8% and NCO ~1.7%, demonstrating cycle-resilient underwriting. FY2026 thesis: can Affirm Card drive GMV toward $40B+ while sustaining RLTC margin ~5%, achieving consistent GAAP profitability and re-rating from fintech startup to consumer financial platform?