Research · Sep 3, 2026
[ZG] Zillow Group Thesis 2026: Housing Super App Drives Rentals + Mortgages Adjacency Cycle
Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z/ZG) FY2025 revenue ~$2.45-2.60B (+12-18%) with adj. EPS ~$1.40-1.65 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$1.60-1.70B aggregate Residential revenue (~65% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Premier Agent + selected various Showcase + selected various Touring + Connections) + selected continued post-2024 ~$520-565M aggregate Rentals revenue (~21% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary multifamily property advertising + selected various single-family rentals + Streeteasy NYC + selected various) + selected continued post-2024 ~$160-180M aggregate Mortgages revenue (~7% aggregate revenue mix) + selected continued post-2024 ~$160-180M aggregate Other revenue (~7% aggregate revenue mix) under continued President + CEO Jeremy Wacksman since August 2024 (~1-year tenure as Zillow CEO; selected post-August 2024 succeeded Rich Barton retirement). The largest US online residential real estate marketplace + housing super app. Founded December 2004 by Rich Barton + Lloyd Frink (Microsoft + Expedia veterans) in Seattle Washington (~21-year heritage); selected post-July 2011 NASDAQ IPO; selected post-2014 ~$2.5B+ Trulia merger; selected post-August 2024 Jeremy Wacksman CEO appointment. Headquartered in Seattle Washington; ~6,500+ employees globally with ~$2.45-2.60B revenue. Four primary business segments: Residential (~65%+ ~$1.60-1.70B), Rentals (~21% ~$520-565M), Mortgages (~7% ~$160-180M), Other (~7% ~$160-180M). Geographic mix: US ~98%+ + selected various international ~2%. Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle: ~$1.60-1.70B Residential revenue; ~205-215M aggregate monthly unique users (MUUs); ~25-27M aggregate monthly mobile app downloads; ~80%+ aggregate US online residential search market share. Rentals + Mortgages adjacency cycle: ~$520-565M Rentals revenue; ~$160-180M Mortgages revenue; ~+25-35% aggregate Rentals growth; ~+15-25% aggregate Mortgages growth. President + CEO Jeremy Wacksman since August 2024 (~1-year tenure); CFO Jeremy Hofmann. Capital position: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2011 NASDAQ IPO); ~$700-900M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$300-450M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$300-450M FY2025; ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + investments balance; net leverage ~negligible (~debt-free balance sheet); selected dual-class structure (Z Class A + ZG Class C). FY2026 thesis: Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle + Rentals + Mortgages adjacency cycle + ~$300-450M aggregate annual buybacks + ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + selected post-August 2024 Jeremy Wacksman CEO succession. Risks: Realtor.com + Redfin + Compass + Anywhere Real Estate + CoStar Homes.com + Apartments.com + Rocket Mortgage + UWM competition, US existing home sales cycle, Federal Reserve rate, post-March 2024 NAR Sitzer-Burnett settlement.