[ZG] Zillow Group Thesis 2026: Housing Super App Drives Rentals + Mortgages Adjacency Cycle

Key Takeaways

• ZG FY2025 revenue ~$2.45-2.60B (+12-18% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$1.40-1.65 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$1.60-1.70B aggregate Residential revenue (~65% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Premier Agent + selected various Showcase + selected various Touring + Connections) + selected continued post-2024 ~$520-565M aggregate Rentals revenue (~21% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary multifamily property advertising + selected various single-family rentals + Streeteasy NYC + selected various) + selected continued post-2024 ~$160-180M aggregate Mortgages revenue (~7% aggregate revenue mix) + selected continued post-2024 ~$160-180M aggregate Other revenue (~7% aggregate revenue mix) under continued President + CEO Jeremy Wacksman since August 2024 (~1-year tenure as Zillow CEO; selected post-August 2024 succeeded Rich Barton retirement).
• Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle: ~$1.60-1.70B Residential revenue (~65%+ revenue mix); selected primary Premier Agent + selected various Showcase + selected various Touring + Connections; selected ~205-215M aggregate monthly unique users (MUUs) + selected various ~25-27M aggregate monthly mobile app downloads + selected ~80%+ aggregate US online residential search market share.
• Rentals + Mortgages adjacency cycle: ~$520-565M Rentals revenue (~21% revenue mix; selected primary multifamily property advertising + Streeteasy NYC + selected various ~50,000+ aggregate properties); ~$160-180M Mortgages revenue (~7% revenue mix; selected primary Zillow Home Loans + selected various Mortgage Marketplace); selected various aggregate ~+25-35% aggregate Rentals revenue growth.
• Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2011 NASDAQ IPO); $700-900M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($300-450M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$300-450M FY2025; ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + investments balance; net leverage ~negligible (selected ~debt-free balance sheet); ~245-255M diluted shares (Z Class A + ZG Class C).
• FY2026 thesis catalysts: Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle + Rentals + Mortgages adjacency cycle (selected ~$520-565M Rentals + ~$160-180M Mortgages) + selected ~$300-450M aggregate annual buybacks + selected ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + selected post-August 2024 Jeremy Wacksman CEO succession + selected various aggregate post-2024 selected aggregate ~$200-400M aggregate annual incremental Rentals + Mortgages revenue.

Company Background

Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z/ZG) is the largest US online residential real estate marketplace + housing super app, founded December 2004 by Rich Barton + Lloyd Frink (Microsoft + Expedia veterans) in Seattle Washington (~21-year heritage; selected pioneer US online residential real estate marketplace). Selected post-July 2011 NASDAQ IPO; selected post-2011-2025 selected various aggregate ~$5B+ aggregate cumulative R&D + tuck-in M&A platform expansion (selected post-2014 ~$2.5B+ Trulia merger + selected post-2018 selected various Mortgage Lenders of America + selected post-2018-2021 selected various Zillow Offers iBuyer; selected post-November 2021 ~$540M+ Zillow Offers iBuyer wind-down); selected post-August 2024 Jeremy Wacksman CEO appointment (succeeded post-August 2024 Rich Barton retirement; selected continued Rich Barton as Co-Founder + Chairman). Selected dual-class structure: Z (Class A; 1 vote/share) + ZG (Class C; 0 votes/share); HQ Seattle Washington; ~6,500+ employees globally.

ZG operates 4 primary business segments: Residential 65%+ revenue ($1.60-1.70B — selected primary Premier Agent + selected various Showcase + selected various Touring + Connections + selected various agent advertising platform) + Rentals 21% revenue ($520-565M — selected primary multifamily property advertising + selected various single-family rentals + Streeteasy NYC + selected various) + Mortgages 7% revenue ($160-180M — selected primary Zillow Home Loans + selected various Mortgage Marketplace) + Other 7% revenue ($160-180M — selected primary new construction + ShowingTime + selected various). Geographic mix: US 98%+ revenue ($2.40-2.55B; selected primary US online residential real estate marketplace) + selected various international 2% ($45-50M).

Capital position: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2011 NASDAQ IPO); $700-900M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($300-450M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$300-450M FY2025; ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + investments balance; net leverage ~negligible; ~245-255M diluted shares (Z Class A + ZG Class C).

Housing Super App + Premier Agent Cycle

The Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle is ZG's foundation thesis: ~$1.60-1.70B Residential revenue (~65%+ revenue mix) + selected primary Premier Agent + selected various Showcase + selected various Touring + Connections + selected ~205-215M aggregate monthly unique users (MUUs) + selected various ~25-27M aggregate monthly mobile app downloads + selected ~80%+ aggregate US online residential search market share. Selected primary ZG platform: Zillow Mobile App + Trulia + selected various housing super app integration + selected various Premier Agent advertising platform + selected various Showcase listings + selected various Touring + Connections + selected various enhanced agent matching + selected various Showcase listings.

FY2025 Residential dynamics ($1.60-1.70B aggregate Residential revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~+8-12% aggregate Residential revenue growth + ~205-215M aggregate MUUs + selected various aggregate Premier Agent + Showcase + Touring + Connections + selected various aggregate housing super app integration + selected various aggregate ~80%+ aggregate US online residential search market share. Selected post-2024 ~$0.30-0.45 incremental annual EPS contribution as Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle drives incremental margin + Residential revenue.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle + ~$0.30-0.45 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued President + CEO Jeremy Wacksman leadership (~1-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$1.75-1.85B aggregate Residential revenue + selected various ~+8-10% aggregate Residential revenue growth + selected various aggregate Premier Agent + Showcase + Touring + Connections + selected various aggregate housing super app integration. Risks: Realtor.com (News Corp) + Redfin + Compass + Anywhere Real Estate + CoStar Homes.com + selected various aggregate online real estate marketplace competitive displacement + US existing home sales cycle (selected various aggregate ~3.5-4.0M aggregate annual existing home sales vs ~5-6M aggregate normalized) + selected post-March 2024 NAR Sitzer-Burnett buyer's agent commission settlement + selected various aggregate selected post-2024 selected various NAR Code of Ethics changes.

Rentals + Mortgages Adjacency Cycle

The Rentals + Mortgages adjacency cycle is ZG's primary growth thesis: ~$520-565M Rentals revenue (~21% revenue mix; selected primary multifamily property advertising + selected various single-family rentals + Streeteasy NYC + selected various ~50,000+ aggregate properties) + ~$160-180M Mortgages revenue (~7% revenue mix; selected primary Zillow Home Loans + selected various Mortgage Marketplace) + selected various aggregate ~+25-35% aggregate Rentals revenue growth + selected various aggregate ~+15-25% aggregate Mortgages revenue growth.

FY2025 Rentals + Mortgages dynamics: ~$520-565M aggregate Rentals revenue + selected various aggregate ~+25-35% aggregate Rentals growth + ~$160-180M aggregate Mortgages revenue + selected various aggregate ~+15-25% aggregate Mortgages growth + selected various aggregate ~50,000+ aggregate Rentals properties + selected various aggregate Zillow Home Loans + Mortgage Marketplace. Selected post-2024 ~$0.10-0.20 incremental annual EPS contribution as Rentals + Mortgages adjacency cycle drives incremental margin + Rentals + Mortgages revenue.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Rentals + Mortgages adjacency cycle + ~$0.10-0.20 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate $650-720M aggregate Rentals revenue (+25-30% growth) + $190-220M aggregate Mortgages revenue (+15-25% growth) + selected various aggregate ~$200-400M aggregate annual incremental Rentals + Mortgages revenue. Risks: Apartments.com (CoStar) + RentSpree + Redfin Rentals + selected various aggregate online rentals + selected various aggregate Mortgage Marketplace + Rocket Mortgage + UWM (United Wholesale Mortgage) + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + Federal Reserve rate severe + US mortgage origination cycle.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2011 NASDAQ IPO) + $700-900M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($300-450M aggregate FY2025) + aggregate capital return ~$300-450M FY2025 + ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + investments balance + net leverage ~negligible (selected ~debt-free balance sheet) + ~245-255M diluted shares (Z Class A + ZG Class C).

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$300-450M aggregate annual buybacks + selected continued ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + selected continued ~debt-free balance sheet + selected various aggregate Rich Barton Co-Founder + Chairman governance continuity + selected various aggregate post-August 2024 Jeremy Wacksman CEO succession.

Key Core Metrics

• FY2025 revenue ~$2.45-2.60B (+12-18% YoY) vs $2.18B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$1.40-1.65
• 4 segments: Residential ~65%+ ($1.60-1.70B), Rentals ~21% ($520-565M), Mortgages ~7% ($160-180M), Other ~7% ($160-180M)
• Geographic mix: US ~98%+ + selected various international ~2%
• ~205-215M aggregate monthly unique users (MUUs); ~25-27M aggregate monthly mobile app downloads
• ~80%+ aggregate US online residential search market share
• Rentals: ~50,000+ aggregate properties; selected primary multifamily + Streeteasy NYC
• Mortgages: ~$160-180M revenue; selected primary Zillow Home Loans
• ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + investments balance
• ~245-255M diluted shares (Z Class A + ZG Class C); ~$300-450M total capital return FY2025
• ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2011 NASDAQ IPO); ~$700-900M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program
• Net leverage ~negligible (~debt-free balance sheet)
• President + CEO Jeremy Wacksman (since August 2024, ~1-year tenure); CFO Jeremy Hofmann
• Selected dual-class structure: Z (Class A; 1 vote/share) + ZG (Class C; 0 votes/share); Rich Barton Co-Founder + Chairman

Market Evaluation

ZG trades as the largest US online residential real estate marketplace + housing super app levered to Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle + Rentals + Mortgages adjacency cycle + selected ~80%+ aggregate US online residential search market share + ~$300-450M aggregate annual buybacks. Bull case: ~$1.60-1.70B Residential + ~$520-565M Rentals + ~$160-180M Mortgages + ~205-215M MUUs + selected ~80%+ aggregate US online residential search market share + ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + ~debt-free balance sheet drive ~$1.65-1.95 adj. EPS FY2026 (+15-25% YoY). Bear case: Realtor.com (News Corp) + Redfin + Compass + Anywhere Real Estate + CoStar Homes.com + Apartments.com + Rocket Mortgage + UWM competitive displacement + US existing home sales cycle severe (~3.5-4.0M aggregate annual vs ~5-6M aggregate normalized) + Federal Reserve rate severe + selected post-March 2024 NAR Sitzer-Burnett buyer's agent commission settlement + post-August 2024 Jeremy Wacksman CEO transition continuity considerations trigger material EPS compression. Base case: Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle + Rentals + Mortgages adjacency + ~debt-free balance sheet support continued ~$1.65-1.95 adj. EPS + ~$300-450M aggregate capital return FY2026.

Housing Super App Drives Rentals + Mortgages Adjacency Cycle Deep Dive

Selected continued post-2024 ~$1.60-1.70B aggregate Residential revenue (~65%+ revenue mix; selected primary Premier Agent + Showcase + Touring + Connections) + selected continued post-2024 ~$520-565M aggregate Rentals revenue (~21% revenue mix; selected primary multifamily property advertising + Streeteasy NYC + ~50,000+ aggregate properties) + selected continued post-2024 ~$160-180M aggregate Mortgages revenue (~7% revenue mix; selected primary Zillow Home Loans + Mortgage Marketplace) + selected continued post-2024 ~$160-180M aggregate Other revenue + selected continued post-2024 ~205-215M aggregate monthly unique users (MUUs) + selected continued post-2024 ~25-27M aggregate monthly mobile app downloads + selected continued post-2024 ~80%+ aggregate US online residential search market share + selected continued post-2024 ~+8-12% aggregate Residential revenue growth + selected continued post-2024 ~+25-35% aggregate Rentals revenue growth + selected continued post-2024 ~+15-25% aggregate Mortgages revenue growth + selected ~$1.6-1.8B aggregate cash + investments balance + selected ~$300-450M aggregate annual buybacks + selected ~debt-free balance sheet + selected dual-class structure (Z Class A + ZG Class C) drive ZG's primary FY2026 thesis. President + CEO Jeremy Wacksman (~1-year tenure) leadership continues post-August 2024 CEO succession from Rich Barton (selected continued Rich Barton as Co-Founder + Chairman) focus on Housing Super App + Premier Agent cycle + Rentals + Mortgages adjacency cycle + capital return discipline. Risks: Realtor.com (News Corp) + Redfin + Compass + Anywhere Real Estate + CoStar Homes.com + Apartments.com (CoStar) + RentSpree + Redfin Rentals + Rocket Mortgage + UWM (United Wholesale Mortgage) + selected various aggregate competitive displacement + US existing home sales cycle (selected various aggregate ~3.5-4.0M aggregate annual existing home sales vs ~5-6M aggregate normalized) + Federal Reserve rate severe + US mortgage origination cycle + selected post-March 2024 NAR Sitzer-Burnett buyer's agent commission settlement + selected various aggregate selected post-2024 selected various NAR Code of Ethics changes + post-August 2024 Jeremy Wacksman CEO transition continuity considerations + selected post-November 2021 Zillow Offers iBuyer wind-down legacy + selected post-2014 Trulia merger integration considerations + selected dual-class structure governance considerations.