Research · Sep 3, 2026
[WELL] Welltower Thesis 2026: Senior Housing NOI Extends Record Streak of Growth
Welltower FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $10.67B revenue (+36%). SHOP segment ~70% of in-place NOI; 13 consecutive quarters of same-store NOI growth >20% (Q4 +20.4%). Total portfolio Q4 same-store NOI +15%. Organic revenue growth ~10% (400bp occupancy gain + rate growth). Q4 operating margin +270bp. Net income $937M; FFO/share +22%. FCF $2.85B (+30%). Dividend $1.88B (+21%); $0 buybacks. Total debt $21.4B (+$4.6B for HC-One + Barchester UK acquisitions). $7.2B Outpatient Medical sale announced; closing 2026 with $1.2B preferred equity stake retained. 9 analysts: 9 Buy / 0 Hold; consensus $232.78, range $215-$245. 9 of 9 covered actions Feb-Mar 2026 were PT raises.